The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals head to the Big Apple on Wednesday
night in a nationally-televised matchup with the New York Rangers at Madison
Square Garden. The contest will feature
teams on different paths. The Caps, a
bona fide Stanley Cup contender, are 13-1-2 in their last 16 games and have the
best road record in the league (10-1-1).
The Rangers are in the midst of a rebuild and a record that reflects it,
tied for fewest standings points in the Metropolitan Division (18, with New
Jersey and Columbus). They have
alternated wins and losses over their last eight contests on home ice (4-2-2).
Then and Now…
This will be the 224th meeting of the clubs in
the history of the regular season series.
The Caps have faced only one opponent more times in team history
(Pittsburgh, 225 games). Washington has
a 108-90-7 (18 ties) record against the Blueshirts. With a win in this game, the Caps would even
their all-time record in New York as they carry a 49-50-3 (nine ties) record
into this contest. Since 2005-2006, the
Caps are 31-22-4 against the Rangers, 14-12-3 in games played at Madison Square
Garden.
Active Leaders vs. Opponent…
Noteworthy Opponents…
Look at that table of active leaders among the Rangers
against the Caps. It says something that
so many current “active” Rangers have made such a small dent in the statistics
against the Capitals, a reflection of a team rebuilding. Players like Brandon Dubinsky, Ryan Callahan,
Ryan McDonagh, Derek Stepan, and Mats Zuccarello, who would be noted in that
table, are gone. But that doesn’t mean
the Rangers are without star power or are incapable of still making a splash in
free agency. They signed one of, if not
the biggest prize in the unrestricted free agent market last summer in Artemi
Panarin. It was a huge contract to which
Panarin was signed -- $81.5 million over seven years, his $11.6 million annual
cap hit second in the league only to Connor McDavid ($12.5 million).
The burden seems not to have weighed Panarin down too much; his nine goals in 18 games lead the team, as do his 23 points. It is the fastest goal-scoring start of his five-year career, putting his career best of 31 goals with Chicago in 2016-2017 in jeopardy. His goal scoring has come as a product of higher shot volumes (3.17 per game is a career high) and efficiency (15.8 percent is his highest since he was 16.0 percent in his rookie year). The problem for the Rangers, though, is it has not been enough. In the nine games in which he has a goal, the Rangers are just 5-4-0. But not getting his contributions proves a bigger problem, the Blueshirts going 3-4-2 in the nine games in which he does not have a goal. His ability to set up other might matter more. New York is 7-3-1 in ten games in which he has at least one assist, 1-5-1 in the seven games he does not have a helper. In 13 career games against the Caps, Panarin is 6-4-10, plus-3.
The burden seems not to have weighed Panarin down too much; his nine goals in 18 games lead the team, as do his 23 points. It is the fastest goal-scoring start of his five-year career, putting his career best of 31 goals with Chicago in 2016-2017 in jeopardy. His goal scoring has come as a product of higher shot volumes (3.17 per game is a career high) and efficiency (15.8 percent is his highest since he was 16.0 percent in his rookie year). The problem for the Rangers, though, is it has not been enough. In the nine games in which he has a goal, the Rangers are just 5-4-0. But not getting his contributions proves a bigger problem, the Blueshirts going 3-4-2 in the nine games in which he does not have a goal. His ability to set up other might matter more. New York is 7-3-1 in ten games in which he has at least one assist, 1-5-1 in the seven games he does not have a helper. In 13 career games against the Caps, Panarin is 6-4-10, plus-3.
If Artemi Panarin’s goal scoring is not a surprise, perhaps
Filip Chytil’s is. A 21st
overall pick in the 2017 draft, the 20-year old center is already fifth in his
draft class in games played (93) and fourth in goals scored (18). He has six goals in only nine games so far
this season, tied for second on the club and is more than half way to topping
the 11 goals he scored last season, his “rookie” season (he played nine games
in 2017-2018). The odd fact in his
limited action to date is another reflection of a team still growing. Chytil’s only two-goal game this season came
on the road in a tough venue, Amalie Arena in Tampa against the Lightning last
Thursday. But they came in the third
period of a game that was 8-1 in favor of the Lightning through two periods. The Rangers lost, 9-3. You would have to think a correction was in
order, though. Chytil’s six goals come
on 17 shots, a 35.3 shooting percentage.
Since shots on goal and shooting percentage became league statistics in
1959-1960, only three players finished a season with more than 100 shots and a
shooting percentage over 30 percent, and the most recent of them (Craig
Simpson, who shot 31.6 percent on 177 shots) did it more than 30 years ago, in
1987-1988.
Chytil is 0-2-2, minus-1, in six career games against the Caps.
When Marc Staal broke into the NHL in 2007-2008, the
defenseman skated with future Hall of Famers Jaromir Jagr (well, soon) and
Brendan Shanahan. Now, he skates on a
defensive squad in which six of the other seven defensemen to have dressed this
season are 25 years old or younger. At
32 years of age, he is the oldest member of the blue line, fourth in team history
in games played by defensemen. But he
was a healthy scratch in three games ending October and beginning in November,
and now he is out following ankle surgery to address an infection. That leaves the “veteran” duties on the blue
line to Brendan Smith. It is a difficult
situation in which Smith finds himself, a player of modest achievements in his
nine year career, parts of four spent with the Rangers.
Smith’s role might be seen as one similar to a defenseman
such Jamie Heward, who played in 123 games for the Caps in the first two
seasons coming out of the 2004-2005 lockout, when the club was rebuilding and
integrating young stars into the lineup. A veteran presence such as that can provide
some stability and instruction even as a team struggles to find its way. Smith will not wow anyone with numbers; despite
being a 27th overall draft pick (Detroit, 2007), he has only seven
goals and 29 points in 149 games as a Ranger.
And this season, he has logged more than ten minutes of ice time only 11
times in 18 games. Watching him is the
sort of thing more devout hockey fans might appreciate. He will not be a big numbers driver, and he
seems unlikely to be a player that will be on this roster when the Rangers
return to competitiveness. But his is an
important role to fill for a team that is working toward reaching that
competitive level once more, that of the stable veteran influence. It is a role that should be appreciated. Smith is 0-4-4, even, in 17 career games against
Washington.
1. The Rangers have
the second-worst shots-per-game differential in the league (minus-6.8); only
Chicago is worse (minus-7.1).
2. New York does not
have a good penalty kill on home ice (77.8 percent/25th), and the struggles
are getting worse. The Rangers were 13-for-15 (86.7 percent) in their first
five home games, but they are just 15-for-22 (68.2 percent) in their last six
games at home.
3. New York is a
young team, and that means one looks for improvement. Special teams are an example. In their first five home games, the Rangers
were 2-for-15 on the power play (13.3 percent), 14-for-18 on the penalty kill
(77.8 percent). In six home games since,
they are 7-for-22 on the power play (31.8 percent), 14-for-18 on the penalty
kill (77.8 percent). Well, at least the
penalty kill is consistent.
4. Eight defensemen
have dressed for the Rangers this season; seven have goals. Libor Hajek, despite dressing for all 18
games, has yet to light the lamp.
5. The Rangers are
dead last in the league in shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 (43.11), and
it is just as bad at home, ranking last at 43.22 percent.
1. Despite the Caps
exceptional road record, they are still lagging in shot attempts. Their shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5
(48.88) ranks just 16th on the road.
2. That shot attempts
ranking might be a reason why the Caps have allowed the fourth-highest number
of shots in road games this season (385, tied with Dallas, both teams playing
12 road games).
3. Washington has
more power play goals on the road (11) than any other team in the league.
4. Only Vegas has
more shorthanded goals scored on the road (four) than the Caps through Monday
(three).
5. No team has more
empty net goals scored on the road through Monday than the Caps (three, tied
with St. Louis). These Caps…they score a
lot of different ways on the road.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
New York: Henrik Lundqvist
We are inching toward the end of one of the great
goaltending careers in NHL history. Henrik
Lundqvist owns or is close to owning every meaningful record in team history:
games (868/first), wins (453/first), goals against average (2.42, second among
goalies with at least 200 games, and Dave Kerr (2.07) last played in 1941),
save percentage (.918, first among goalies with at least 100 games), and
shutouts (63/first). But now he is more
or less splitting time with 23-year old Alexandar Georgiev, taking ten starts
to eight for Georgiev. Lundqvist and
Georgiev have identical 4-4-1 records, Georgiev having the edge in goals
against average (3.22 to 3.54 for Lundqvist) and save percentage (.906 to .905
for Lundqvist).
If there has been a disturbing development in Lundqvist’s
game it is that five times in his ten starts he had a save percentage under
.900. Unsuprisingly, the Rangers could not
score their way out of such difficulties and have a 0-4-1 record in those five
games (Lundqvist had a no-decision in a loss to Boston). Lundqvist has been slipping slowly, but
inexorably, for a few years now, paralleling the fortunes of the team in front
of him. After posting seven consecutive
seasons with a save percentage of .920 or better, he has not been above .915 in
any of the last four seasons. After
posting goals against averages under 2.50 in each of his first 11 seasons, he
has not been below 2.74 in any of the last four seasons, and his 3.54 goals
against average so far this season is almost half a goal worse than his next
worst GAA, 3.07 set last year. Lundqvist
is 21-13-7, 2.80, .905, with four shutouts in 41 career games against the Caps.
Washington: John Carlson
As if John Carlson needs a big stage at the moment, given
the historic start to his season, he will get one in New York on
Wednesday. He has to be considered the
favorite among Norris Trophy candidates as the schedule passes the one-quarter
mark. Among defensemen, he is second in
goals (eight, to Dougie Hamilton’s nine), first in assists (26, nine more than
Cale Makar), first in points (34, 12 more than Makar), first in plus-minus
(plus-15, two better than Brian Dumoulin and Zdeno Chara), first in points per
game (1.48, to 1.10 for Makar and Hamilton), first in even strength points (23,
to 14 for Ryan Ellis), tied for first in power play points (11, with three
other defensemen), and tied for first in shots on goal (66, with Roman Josi). He has points in 19 games this season, more
than any other defenseman (Hamilton has points in 16 games).
And, if you think Carlson’s numbers this season are not
Norris-worthy, his career to date has an almost bizarre parallel with a
defenseman who has won a Norris Trophy, 2017-2018 winner Victor Hedman. Consider:
One might consider Carlson among, if not the most underrated
defenseman, certainly on the offensive side of the puck, of his
generation. Carlson is 5-20-25, minus-1,
in 34 career games against the Rangers.
In the end…
The Caps are a contender; the Rangers are a rebuilder. Frankly, that is where the analysis might
end. But hockey is played on an ice
sheet, not a spreadsheet, and a nationally-televised game in The World’s Most
Famous Arena is always a challenge for a visitor. But this Capitals team has met almost every
challenge thrown at it on the road this season, and this should prove no
different.
Capitals 4 – Rangers 2
