The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals start one of their more important
weeks of the season on Wednesday night when they face the onrushing
Philadelphia Flyers in the first of three games against Metropolitan Division
opponents this week. The Caps, who have
not won more than two consecutive games in more than a month, will be looking
for a second consecutive win after their 4-3 win over the Minnesota Wild on
Sunday night. It would be only the
second time they won consecutive games over a 16-game stretch dating back to
the end of January. The Flyers, on the
other hand, are one of the hottest teams in the league, bringing a six-game winning
streak into this contest, their longest of the season.
Then and Now…
The Capitals and Flyers will meet for the 223rd
time in the regular season on Wednesday night.
Washington is 87-105-11 (19 ties) in the all-time series, 49-42-4 (13
ties) at home. Since 2005-2006, the Caps
are 30-18-11 against the Flyers overall and 16-8-4 at home. This will be the fourth and final meeting of
the clubs in the regular season, the Caps looking to earn a split in the
series. Washington won the first game
between the teams, 2-1 in a Gimmick, on November 13th in
Philadelphia. The Flyers won the next
two meetings, 3-2 in Philadelphia on January 8th and 7-2 in
Washington on February 8th.
Active Leaders vs. Opponent…
Noteworthy Opponents…
Since January 8th, when the Flyers bested the Caps,
3-2, the Orange and Black are 16-5-1, tied for the league lead in standings
points earned (33, with three other teams) through Monday's games and are tied for the second-best
points percentage (.750). They have done
it largely with a productive offense that leads the league in goals per game
(3.73) over the period. With 23 points
apiece, both Travis Konecny and Sean Couturier have had a hand in 28 percent of
the league-leading 82 goals scored by the Flyers in that span.
Konecny, who posted 24 goals in each of the previous two
seasons, can match that total with a goal against the Caps in this
contest. An even strength goal would
give him 20 for the third straight season as well. The real difference in his production this
season that has allowed him to obliterate his previous high in points for a
season (49 last year) has been his effectiveness as a power play
distributor. His 18 power play assists
are more than four times the four he had last season and account for the
difference between last year’s career high in points (49) and his new career
high of 60 points this season.
Konecny leads the team in goals over the 22-game run (ten),
a total that includes two power play goals, two first goals in games, and a
pair of game-winning goals. He has been
a very efficient shooter as well, scoring those ten goals on 41 shots (24.4
percent). He has had a tendency to put
up points in bunches, too. Overall this
season, he has six three-point games, a total that matches that of Colorado’s
Nathan MacKinnon, Pittsburgh’s Evgeni Malkin, and Toronto’s Auston
Matthews. In 14 career games against the
Caps, Konecny is 4-1-5, even.
Couturier’s story has been one of consistency. In posting his 23 points over the Flyers’
last 22 games, he recorded a point in 15 of those games, and only once did he
go consecutive games without recording a point.
Oddly enough, that came against two of the weaker teams in the league –
Detroit and New Jersey – in early February.
It is part of a longer string of consistent performance for Couturier,
who has not gone as many as three games without a point since late
October. In 55 games since then, he is
19-34-53, plus-27, and has points in 36 of those games. Odd Couturier/Konecny Fact… both players have
points in 41 games overall this season.
Couturier has not been just a scorer, either. His 60.0 faceoff winning percentage over
those 22 games is second best in the league among 131 players taking at least 100
draws (Matt Duchene: 60.3 percent). He
and Kevin Hayes are the only forwards on the club averaging more than two
minutes per game on both power plays and penalty kills over the 22-game
stretch, and he averages more than a minute per game in overtime
situations. He leads the club in
personal shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 over the period (58.1 percent;
minimum: five games). Couturier will
also be looking to find himself in the Selke Trophy mix once more this season
as top defensive forward. He has earned
Selke votes in each of the previous six seasons and was named a finalist in 2017-2018. He goes into this game with eight goals in
his last 11 games and has points in nine of those games. Couturier is 8-15-23, plus-9, in 32 career
games against the Caps.
Hart is Hot. That would
be Flyer goaltender Carter Hart, who seems to be the goaltender the Flyers have
been searching for since Ron Hextall retired in 1999. Hart is one of 29 goalies to dress for the
Flyers since Hextall’s retirement, and in what is a clear sign of the
frustration the Flyers have had in dressing so many goalies, Hart is already 11th
on that list in wins, despite this being only his second season in the
league. If he gets the call on Wednesday
and gets the win, it would be his 39th career win, tying Michal
Neuvirth for 10th place on that list.
As we noted, he is hot.
Since stopping 26 of 28 shots in the Flyers’ 3-2 win over the Caps on
January 8th, he is 9-2-0, 2.28, .919, and he comes into this game
having won his last five decisions while stopping 130 of 140 shots (.929 save
percentage). However, Hart has been two
very different goalies this year based on his home-road splits. In 22 appearances at home this season, Hart
is 18-2-2, 1.67, .941, with one shutout.
On the road, though, he is 4-10-1, 3.81, .857 in 18 appearances. He endured a stretch of nine consecutive road
appearances without a win, going 0-7-0 (two no decisions), stopping only 158 of
186 shots (.849 save percentage) before winning two of his last three decisions
on the road, but still suffering a poor save percentage (.883/68 saves on 77
shots). Hart is 1-1-1, 2.29, .926 in
three career appearances against the Capitals.
1. With 38 wins this
season, the Flyers, in 65 games, have already surpassed last year’s win total
(37). Odd Flyer fact about wins… They
are on a pace to win 48 games this season.
They have won more than 45 games 11 times in team history, and in six of
those instances they went to the Stanley Cup final, but the last instance of
that happening was in 1987, where they lost in seven games to the Edmonton
Oilers.
2. Second periods
have been where the Flyers have stymied opponents over their 16-5-1 run. With 32 goals scored (tied with Minnesota for
most in the league) and only 17 allowed, their plus-15 goals differential is
second only to Colorado (plus-17) over the period.
3. In their 22-game
run, the Flyers were out-shot eight times and won in seven of those instances.
4. In those 22 games,
the Flyers took a lead into the third period 14 times, second most in the
league (Colorado: 15), and won in all 14 instances.
5. Don’t let the
Flyers score first. In their 22-game run
of success they scored first 13 times, winning 11 times, their .846 winning
percentage in those instances being best in the league.
1. The Caps are
looking for a third consecutive win on home ice, after wins over Pittsburgh and
Winnipeg, which would be their first three-game winning streak at home in 2020
and first since winning three in a row at home against Boston, Tampa Bay, and
Columbus over the December 11-27 period.
2. Washington is
7-6-1 over their last 14 home games dating back to New Year’s Eve. Their .536 points percentage is tied for 20th
in the league with Winnipeg on home ice in that span.
3. In those 14 games,
the Caps have scored 49 goals and allowed 49 goals, tied for seventh in home
ice scoring offense and tied for 28th in home ice scoring defense in
that span.
4. Over those 14
games, the Caps net power play of 7.7 percent (accounting for shorthanded goals
scored against) is third-worst in the league, while their net penalty kill of
87.8 percent is tied for eighth-best in the league.
5. Part of the
problem in the recent mediocre home record is an inability to carry success
into intermissions. The Caps have taken
a lead into the first intermission only four times in their last 14 home games,
winning all of them. They have taken a
lead into the second intermission only five times, going 4-1-0.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Philadelphia: Ivan Provorov
An ingredient to the Flyers success generally this season
has been getting offense from their defense.
Seven defensemen have recorded goals for the club this season, four of
them with five or more. Two have more than 20 assists, and the same two – Matt Niskanen
and Ivan Provorov – are tied for the team lead in points with 33. Provorov leads the team’s defense in goals
with 11, one of 15 defensemen so far to hit double digits in goals.
Has his offense mattered?
To a point, it has. The Flyers
are 7-2-2 in games in which he scored a goal, 19-6-3 in the 28 games in which
he had a point, 14-7-4 in the 25 games in which he had three or more shots on
goal. Those are very good number, but
not eye-popping. They are more or less
what one might expect when a defenseman is engaged in the offense. He has been on ice for even strength goals
scored against the team in 37 of his 65 games, and the team is 16-17-4 in those
games. Again, this is not all that
surprising, based on the fact that Provorov averages 19:08 in even strength ice
time per game, most among Flyer defensemen.
It is fair to say that thing happen when he is on the ice, not all of it
good for the club. The burden of
carrying a heavy workload.
Over the 22-game run of success for the Flyers since January
8th, others have taken up a bigger share of the offense from the
blue line. Provorov has two goals in
that span (fourth among defensemen), and nine points (tied for third). Still, his contributions are part of a
broader sharing of the offensive burden.
Three Flyer defensemen – Matt Niskanen, Travis Sanheim, and Robert Hagg –
all have three goals, and Niskanen and Sanheim have posted double digits in
points (16 and 10, respectively) over the 16-5-1 run. Provorov is 1-4-5, plus-5, in 15 career games
against Washington.
Washington: Garnet Hathaway
Every streak starts with “one.” When Garnet Hathaway scored a goal in the Caps’
4-3 win over Winnipeg on February 25th, it broke a 24-game streak
without a goal, and it was his first goal on home ice since he had empty net
goal in a 5-2 win over the New York Rangers on October 18th. The last time he recorded a goal on home ice
against a goaltender was in the Caps’ home opener, oddly enough the first goal
scored by the Caps on home ice this season, in a 3-2 overtime loss to the
Carolina Hurricanes. But he has that “one”
and can make it two in a row of goal-games on home ice against the Flyers on
Wednesday.
Part of the issue with Hathaway might be in his shooting
frequency, which is something to notice about the fourth line in general. Hathaway is averaging less than a shot on
goal per home game (29 in 30 home games), as are his frequent fourth line
teammates, Nic Dowd (23 in 24 home games), and the recently replaced Brendan
Leipsic (26 in 30 home games).
That is not to say Hathaway does not make his
contributions. His 85 hits on home ice
are second among forwards to Tom Wilson (146).
He has 21 blocked shots, one of five Caps forwards with at least 20 on
home ice this season. He has a positive
takeaway-to-giveaway ratio (10 takeaways to nine giveaways). His orneriness on home ice is reflected in
his 52 penalty minutes, which leads the team by a healthy margin (Wilson: 31),
but even with that, he has drawn 18 penalties on home ice while taking 16, his
3.44 penalties drawn per 60 minutes on home ice being more than twice as many
as the next highest forward (T.J. Oshie: 1.54 penalties drawn per 60 minutes) and
his net 0.38 penalties per 60 minutes ranking third highest among Caps
forwards, behind Oshie (1.13) and Leipsic (0.45). Although his offense has been sparse,
Hathaway has been a skilled practitioner in hockey’s grittier arts on home ice
this season. In eight career games
against the Flyers, he is 0-1-1, minus-3.
In the end…
If someone had remarked that the Caps would play a critical
game against a team from Pennsylvania in March, one would have assumed they
were talking about the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Well, that game will come on Saturday.
But this game against the Flyers, who sit only three points behind the
Caps in the Metropolitan Division standings, qualifies as “critical.” The advantage for the Caps here, despite the
Flyers’ momentum over the past eight weeks, is that the Flyers are just 15-15-3
on the road this season, tied for 20th in points percentage in the
league (.500). The Caps have hardly been
earthshaking at home, posting an 18-9-5 record overall (.641 points percentage
ranking ninth in the league) and 3-5-1 in their last eight games at Capital One
Arena. This game could feature many
twists, turns, and lead changes before it is settled. But when it is, the Caps will have extended
their division lead.
Capitals 5 – Flyers 3
