Wednesday, August 31, 2005

Popcorn

Caps sign Jeff Schultz and Alexander Ovechkin . . . Ovechkin to be introduced at a press conference tomorrow . . . training camp opening announced by the club . . . Peter Bondra about to make a decision.

My my . . . you can almost hear the skates cutting into the ice, can’t you?

It’s driving people nuts! . . . Silly rumors are popping up like a tub of Orville Redenbacher.

Kolzig for Luongo . . . Witt for Orpik and Beech.

I’m waiting for the Crosby watch . . . perhaps for Dainius Zubrus, now that those Zubrus for Jan Hrdina rumors have finally been laid to rest . . .

. . . or have they?





Cue the X-Files music.

– The Peerless

Sunday, August 28, 2005

It's not THAT the wind is blowin'

It's WHAT the wind is blowin' . . .

With apologies to comedian Ron White, we're now into the silly season of personnel moves, or more accurately, "rumors."

Today's goofy rumor comes courtesy of the Toronto Sun, which offers up a helping of Nik Antropov for Brendan Witt. "Moving Antropov" might be the title of a long running stage play in Ontario for as often as it seems to get attention.

As much help as the Caps could use at center, I suspect the Caps' brain trust will wait on this one. Antropov has a desirable set of physical attributes (6'6", 220) and plays a position in which the Caps are thin -- center. But, Antropov can have the disturbingly frequent brain-lock and often does not use that super-size body to greatest benefit. The price tag ($1.1 million) is attractive in trade (compared to Witt's $1.7 million), but one suspects the Caps will be patient in moving Witt.

The Peerless doesn't this deal is going anywhere, at least for the time being.

In other Caps news . . . there really isn't any. The Bondra Watch is still underway, and one suspects that this week a decision will be made. It can't come soon enough. Things have gotten quite boring as we begin to count the days to training camp.

-- The Peerless

Tuesday, August 23, 2005

It might be bad, but it could be worse.

It isn't a secret, not many folks think the Caps will be much more than a middling AHL-quality team this year. But how bad, in the context of major pro teams since World War II, or even compared with the Caps' 8-67-5 weeping sore of an inaugural season in 1974-75 might they be?

There's bad, as in amusingly bad . . . there's bad, as in "do you believe this?" . . . and there's bad, but we'll get better. If you want to make the top of the list, you not only have to be bad, you need to give your following the impression that like a desert stretching to the horizon, your chances of any success in the foreseeable future will be as likely as finding a waterfall in the Sahara.

So, where do the Caps to be fit in? Not nearly as bad as one might think, in my Peerlessian opinion. Let's take a look at some of the epic disasters . . .

1949 St. Louis Browns. Geez, they stunk. True, at 53-101, they didn't have the worst record in the American League (that dishonor fell to, who else, the Washington Senators), but they left little in the way of hope for their fans. They were last in hitting and last in pitching, but here is the scariest statistic . . . 3,519 fans per game. The next worse team in the AL (yup, the Senators) managed to draw 10,101 a game. And, as if that wasn't bad enough, that year was the first of seven in which they averaged 98 losses a year (in the days of the 154-game schedule). By the time it was over, the Browns were the Orioles and playing in Baltimore. Now that, my friends, is bad.

1962 New York Mets. If there is a potential parallel with the 2005-2006 Caps, it's this team. So bad as to be a constant source of entertainment (they finished 40-120 in this, their inaugural year), but in seven years would be winning a World Series. They had Roger Craig, up until then a serviceable major league pitcher, finish 10-24 (sort of like finishing with a -50 plus-minus in the contemporary era of hockey) . . . and he'd be even worse the next year. Don Zimmer (Pedro Martinez' future sparring partner) batted .077 . . . no, he wasn't a pitcher. They did have a pitcher going by the name of "Vinegar Bend" (Mizell, for those keeping score). They finished 60.5 games out of first . . . guess they were figuring out the "magic number" for elimination, oh . . . about April 15th that year.

1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A donut hole for the year . . . oh-for-1976 . . . 14 games, 14 L's . . . the gold standard of "suck." The most entertaining part of their entire season was the post-game press conferences of head coach John McKay, whose coaching strategy appeared to take a strange, abrupt turn to the "George Burns" school of coaching very early on. Only four times that year did they finish within two touchdowns of their opponent. Four times, they were shutout. How bad were they? Steve Spurrier was their quarterback. No run, no gun, no fun. He’s been trying to make up for it ever since.

1980-81 Winnipeg Jets. You could make a case that this club was worse than the 1974-75 Caps . . . well, almost as bad. They set a record among major pro sports in North America for consecutive winless games - 30 (it still stands). They won nine games. But, unlike the 1974-75 Caps, who followed up their disastrous inaugural season with a 11-59-10 record, the Jets made the playoffs in 1981-82 with the third best record in the Campbell Conference, 33-33-14 . . . did I say that except for Edmonton, the Campbell pretty much sucked that year?

1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers. 9-73 . . . 59 games behind the Boston Celtics. How could they be that bad? Only twice all year did they win consecutive games (making them 5-73 for the other 78 games . . . something truly hideous to think about). But, three years later they were in the playoffs, kicking off a run of 15 years in 16 in which they made the playoffs, winning an NBA title and on two other occasions losing in the NBA final.

The Caps might have a bleak prospect for this year, but The Peerless foresees better times ahead than might have been the case for these sad examples of decrepitude.

Right? . . . Right??

-- The Peerless


Sunday, August 21, 2005

The Class of 2002

If folks want to get an indication of where the Caps stand with their rebuild, then look not to Alexander Ovechkin, but to their class of 2002 prospects. For those who need reminding, these are the top prospects of that class:

Steve Eminger (1st round/12th overall)
Alexander Semin (1/13)
Jakub Klepis (1/16)
Boyd Gordon (1/17)
Jonas Johansson (1/28)
Maxime Daigneault (2/59)
Tomas Fleischmann (2/63)

When people speak of the core of prospects, this is much of it. I would think Eminger, Semin, and Gordon are all but locks to make the parent club out of camp. Klepis would not be all that much of a surprise. The others, I think, are long shots to make the squad out of camp.

But in a sense, this could be a watershed year for this class. If these players don’t show promise – in the fourth season after their selection – then one would have to wonder if the Caps’ rebuild won’t be delayed even further. Particularly for Eminger (thought to be a top-four defenseman when selected), Semin (a first line scoring winger), and Gordon (a checking center with perhaps some scoring upside), this is a year to establish a footprint.

I’m not arguing that these players will be fully-functional NHLers out of the box. In the case of Eminger, Semin, and Gordon, we’re talking about guys with only about 150 games of experience among them. For the rest, none. But this could – and frankly should – be a “leap year” for them. More than Ovechkin, more than the players picked up on the free agency wire, these will be the players to watch . . . and to watch grow.

-- The Peerless

Friday, August 19, 2005

The Magic 8-Ball

So . . . the Washington Times reports today that a return to the Caps by Peter Bondra is up to the player. The current thinking is that his choice is down to Atlanta and Washington.

What to make of this . . . I suspect this is a matter of money and place. I’m guessing Atlanta offered more money or more years, or both, but Washington offered a competitive amount while offering the intangible of coming back to where he built his career.

Just another wrinkle in the new free agency/salary cap era.

Atlanta might be a playoff team this year and has some decent up-and-coming players. The thought of playing along side of Ilya Kovalchuk and Dany Heatley has its charms. Then again, the possibility of playing with Alexander Ovechkin and tutoring Alexander Semin and Eric Fehr (at least in training camp) in the finer points of the sniping art must pique his interest as well.

So, will Bondra sign with Washington? After asking the magic 8-ball, and having it tell me to “concentrate and ask again,” it told me . . . “yes definitely.”

---

Dainius Zubrus has been signed. A big, skates-like-the-wind guy who can play any forward position and has a propensity for scoring goals off various body parts. And, he’s still only 27. He could very well center the Alexanders – Ovechkin and Semin – this year. If ever there was a year for a break-out season . . .

So, is THIS the year he breaks out and fulfills his (once upon a time) vast potential? The magic 8-ball says . . .”it is decidedly so”

Yeah, I’ll believe it when I see it.

---

Continuing a long and proud tradition, the Caps signed another former Penguin – Matt Bradley being this year’s pick-up. Bradley is somewhat typical of what the Caps are doing, at least in the short term. He’s relatively young (27), has some size, but most importantly, he can skate and he’s cheap. So, the question for the magic 8-ball is . . .

Can a line of Matt Bradley, Brian Sutherby, and Matt Pettinger be a decent checking line?

“Yes, definitely.”

....hmm.

---

But back to Alexander Semin . . . last year, he failed to report to Portland and was subsequently suspended by the club. Now, there is an issue about his military status. It raises the question . . . will Semin even be in Washington this year?

Magic 8-ball, you’re up . . .

. . . “outlook good"

---

One last question . . . "is this #@%& ball broken?"

"yes"


-- The Peerless

Wednesday, August 17, 2005

Some Early Thoughts on What Awaits

OK . . . so what lies in store for the Caps this year? Although there are roster spots to fill, and line combinations and defensive pairings to iron out, it is clear – as if hit over the head with a mallet – that the Caps are going with youth. So, we know who should be skating with the big club this season as far as the core is concerned . . . at least to start.

Given all that, it’s reasonable to assume that the Caps are unlikely to be a successful club in the standings. But what can we look forward to? What would constitute success, give our meager expectations for this year and hope for the years to come?

Standings . . . I’m a big proponent of breaking a season down into manageable pieces – ten game slices. I think this will be particularly helpful in gauging the Caps’ progress over the course of the season. Usually, I’d be looking to see if the Caps average 12 standings points per 10 game stretch. That can be a formula for reaching a 100-point season. This year, I’ll be looking to see if one ten game stretch improves on the last. If, for instance, the Caps earn only six points in the first slice of ten games, but earn ten points in the fifth and 12 in the sixth, I would regard that as progress, even if the Caps are lagging in the standings. It would be evidence that the kids are getting it.

Team . . . once upon a time, the Caps had a reputation as being a real hard team to play against. They were a “lunch-pail” group that brought their best effort every night. The “Plumbers Line” represented what Caps hockey was all about – relentless pursuit and in-your-face hockey all over the ice. It wasn’t a reflection of pugilistic prowess, but a high-octane approach to checking and hard work. Even as recently as the line of Jeff Halpern, Ulf Dahlen, and Steve Konowalchuk you could see elements of such an approach to the game. Their ability to control the puck and dominate the corners and end boards frustrated opponents endlessly. The Caps need to return to a similar theme – they need to re-establish a team philosophy, a sense of what it means to play “Caps Hockey.” If kids like Brian Sutherby and Boyd Gordon and Matt Pettinger can set the tone, the comparisons to hard-working, if less-than-glamorous guys from the past like Gaetan Duchesne, Alan Haworth, or Greg Adams would be appropriate. Even in a new, offensively-oriented NHL, I think there is an important place for this kind of ethic.

Individuals . . . for some players, the time has come to show that they deserve major minutes in the NHL. We’re not talking competing for scoring championships or Norris Trophy candidacies, but for guys like Brian Sutherby, Steve Eminger, Boyd Gordon, and others, the club needs some indication that they will be contributing members of the club for years to come. Here, the ten game slice idea also is apt. Some of the plus-minus statistics for these guys will be brutal early on. But after the all-star break, with several dozen games behind them, we might expect to see improvement. If any of these guys are struggling, see their minutes cut back, or worse – get sent to Hershey – the club will have problems, and the rebuild will suffer. That’s a lot of pressure to put on 20-something young men, but that’s also the nature of professional sports.

Winners don’t get built from kits. The failures of the New York Rangers and the Caps, as well as the successes of the New Jersey Devils and, more recently, the Tampa Bay Lightning show that rather clearly. Even in the Oklahoma Land Rush of free agency that we’ve been in over the past few weeks, I think “building” a team will result in a sustainable success that “shopping” for a team will not.

Monday, August 15, 2005

Today's subject . . . history

Today, we take a look back at yesteryear and into another sport . . . football. Folks in River City will remember not-too-fondly the days leading up to the 2000 season when the Redskins went on quite the binge. They brought in Bruce Smith, Deion Sanders, Mark Carrier, and Jeff George, Adrian Murrell, Andre Reed, and Irving Fryar to jump start the return to Redskin glory. With each new signing, confidence grew. Oh, what a year it would be. You'd have thought the engravers were already eyeing the Lombardi Trophy to etch the Redskins' name in it.

And the club went . . . splat.

After starting 6-2, they went 2-6 to finish 8-8. A disappointing season by any measure, but the predictable result when trying to build a team from a kit. It is something the Redskins have paid for ever since.

Which brings me to . . . the Pittsburgh Penguins. My, what a couple of weeks this has been for the Caps' long time nemesis. Today, they signed John LeClair to a deal, adding him to recent acquisitions: Jocelyn Thibault, Zigmund Palffy, Sergei Gonchar, and Andre Roy. Average age on opening night? . . . 33. To this add Mark Recchi (37) and Mario Lemieux (40 on opening night). Not what one would call a youth movement, unless the "movement" is limited to the big three of Sidney Crosby, Marc-Andre Fleury (who seems destined for another year in Wilkes-Barre), and Evgeni Malkin (who seems ticketed for another year in Russia).

On paper, this is a formidable offensive team. On paper, they could score 300 goals. On paper, they might give up a similar number.

But then, folks here saw to what "on paper" often translates . . . a nice fantasy team, emphasis on the word, "fantasy."

-- The Peerless

Sunday, August 14, 2005

As if there wasn't enough to think about

Well, fellow fans of the black, blue, and bronze . . . we’re less than two months to opening night, and Caps fans are in a panic.

We haven’t signed Bondra!

Folks aren’t this attached to the family pet.

But hey, why stop there? We could have a whole theme park amount of nostalgia . . .

Bring back Bobby Gould! . . . if only to take another swipe at that geeky owner in Pittsburgh.

Bring back Jim Carey! . . . just don’t let him play against Pittsburgh.

Bring back Dennis Maruk! . . . hey, since the NHL is emphasizing offense, why not the only 60-goal scorer in Caps history?

Bring back Rod Langway! . . . can’t . . . gotta wear a helmet (or is he still grandfathered in?)

Bring back Richard Zednik! . . . sadly, there are many who would.

Bring back Trevor Linden! . . . he can’t be as bad as he was in his short stint here.

Bring back Michel Belhumeur! . . . please, just get the guy one win.

Bring back Bengt Gustafsson! . . . ok, that’s mine.

Bring back the Murrays! . . . hey, they made the playoffs regularly.

Bring back Winger! . . . uh, don’t.

Bring back Craig Laughlin! . . . anything to get him out of the booth.

Bring back Mike Fornes! . . . “a shot, and a goal!”

Bring back the white pants! . . . boxers or briefs?

Right now, I’m just happy they’re bringing back hockey.

-- The Peerless

Saturday, August 13, 2005

The Ghost and Mr. Muir

Among other signings, the Caps obtained another defenseman -- Bryan Muir -- on Thursday. Seems the club is now looking to fill out the Hershey roster. Of course, this is another six-foot-plus-plus defenseman.

But amid all these undercard signings, I'm wondering about that lonely spot out on the right point on the power play and whether Peter Bondra will be returned to the fold. He's still out there. The club is a little light at right wing, assuming Eric Fehr will spend the year in Hershey. Of course, they might be light at left wing, too, if Alexander Semin remains in Russia.

Who knew filling a roster could be so hard.

Thursday, August 11, 2005

I knew Ted wanted an NBA team . . .

. . . but his lack of patience is stunning. With the signings of Mathieu Biron and Ivan Majesky, Ted (or rather, George, presumably with Ted's blessing) has assembled a defense squad that likely would rebound better than the Wizards . . . let's recap.

Returning, we have:

Shaone Morrisonn: 6'3"
Steve Eminger: 6'2"
Nolan Yonkman: 6'6"

Waiting in the wings, there is Jeff Schultz: 6'6"

The Caps just got finished drafting:

Sasha Pokulok: 6'5"
Joe Finley: 6'7"

And now . . . Biron at 6'6" and Majesky at 6'5"

The Caps have to find a way to sign Zdeno Chara as a free agent next year.

The club's new motto . . . "We might not be good, but we'll be tall."

-- The Peerless

Wednesday, August 10, 2005

Cap-alanche

Andrew Cassels and Lawrence Nycholat? Well, they have to get to 23 somehow. Cassels' best days are, as they say, behind him, but given what appears to be the Caps' plan, this is not a bad pickup. He'll give them a year, maybe two, of decent two way play and will be able to impart some wisdom in the process -- hopefully. He's not, and is not intended to be, a long-term solution to the center problem.

Nycholat serves more in my mind to underline the lingering problem on the blue line -- a lack of physical defensemen (and please, no "Yonkman" references until he stays vertical for a dozen or so games). Even if they are not in the team's long term plans, they're needed to take away opponents' incentive to take liberties with the kids.

On balance, not a bad day for the Caps, but nothing here to convince me that a 50+ point season is on its way.

Monday, August 08, 2005

C'mon in . . . the water's . . . well, wet

So, I'm away for a couple of days, and the Caps sign not one, but two free agents.

Ben Clymer seems to be the prototypical candidate for the Caps right now. Nothing leaps out at you about his game, but he's a decent two-way guy who can skate. He won't put up much in the way of statistics, but he won't embarrass himself out there, either. This is the kind of player -- not too old, not too expensive, not a high-end talent -- with which I thought the Caps would try to fill in the roster.

The signing of Miroslav Zalesak confounds me. He's pretty much one-dimensional, and not the dimension the Caps need. He's scored some in the AHL but hasn't had a lot of NHL experience (12 games). He's said to be less than physically imposing and lacking on the defensive end. I would have thought that the strategy was to draft for skill (even the just-drafted, outsized Sasha Pokulok is more of a skill defenseman) then fill in the holes in physical, two-way, grinder-type players via free agency or trades. This signing, I just don't get.

But hey, the Caps are new to this . . . hopefully, they'll get better.


-- The Peerless

Thursday, August 04, 2005

Day 4 . . .

Well, here we are in Day 4 of the new era of hockey (looks a lot like fantasy hockey so far, doesn't it?). INactivity on the part of the Caps raises the questions...what are they looking for, and why?

If you look at the Flyers, they're assembling a team to win a Cup in the next couple of years, after which guys like Roenick (if he's still around), Forsberg, Primeau, and some others will be gone or a good distance past their prime.

Now, what are the Caps doing? They're not competitive. It is unlikely, unless they had spent right to the cap, that they'd be competitive in the next couple of years. Their time horizon is further out (rebuilding, when you're doing it from scratch, is not a 1-2 year thing) . . . 3-4 years.

So, what are they looking for, and why?

1. I would think the Caps are not offering any FA any deal past 2 years, maybe three. What would be the point? To tie up payroll just when you're becoming competitive? When you would then not have any payroll flexibility to fill holes?

2. This probably means older FAs looking for perhaps one more payday. Look at the list, draw your own conclusions.

3. It will mean looking carefully for guys who have an understanding of the game, even if their skills have diminshed. In all likelihood, they will not contribute a lot to the score sheet, but if they can impart some wisdom on what is now a young team, that 3-4 year time frame looks better.

4. There is a whole secondary market that hasn't yet been established (think "Ron Francis" or "Mark Messier," although I think neither of these guys would entertain an offer from the Caps) . . . older guys with an excellent career body of work who would be precisely that kind of player to contribute wisdom, if not statistics. That's the market in which the Caps will be a player . . . so, dear Caps fan, turn off sportsnet.ca and thefourthperiod.com and tsn.ca and wait a few days.

-- The Peerless

Tuesday, August 02, 2005

We're Doomed

Well, that's the consensus, it seems, in Caps Land. The Caps didn't sign a free agent today -- well, as of this writing.

And that signifies . . . what, exactly?

After a year of no hockey and fan polls indicating that players are overpaid and should get back to work, the last couple of days have treated us to wails of despair over the fact that Washington didn't sign (fill in the blank) to a three-year, 14.5 million deal.

Well, fans are called that for a reason . . . there is no requirement to be logical.

So, what do we make of today's silence on the part of the Caps? Heck, if I knew, I wouldn't be here, I'd be picking winning Powerball numbers. It seems to me that the Caps have the intention of spending at or near the $21.5 million floor. Given the players to whom they have commitments and the RFAs they are likely to re-sign, they'll be a few players short of a roster and $4-5 million short of the floor. That doesn't suggest any splashy signings in the early period. It suggests a few mid-range, $1 million per (max) kinds of free agents.

It also suggests the Caps will intensely suck this year. At best, they will be a team that competes every night, will be a nuisance to play against, but one lacking the talent to win more than one game in four.