“Do not be in a hurry to succeed. What would you have to
live for afterwards? Better make the horizon your goal; it will always be ahead
of you.”
-- William Makepeace Thackeray
It took eight years, but Evgeny Kuznetsov arrived in
2017-2018. Taken 26th overall in the 2010 entry draft (the same one
in which Brett Connolly was taken sixth overall), it took that long for
Kuznetsov to become one of the best offensive centers in the NHL. In his fifth NHL season he set career highs
in goals (27), points (83), power play goals (7), power play points (30), time
on ice (18:49 per game), and shooting percentage (14.4 percent). On his way to a 27-56-83, plus-3 season, he
was a model of offensive consistency, only twice in 79 games going as many as
three consecutive contests without a point.
His 83-point season gave Kuznetsov 219 points over his last
three seasons, 17th highest in the league over that span, one fewer
than John Tavares, and seventh among centers (source: NHL.com). In that same span he is one of 11 players
(oddly enough, only three full time centers, joining Sidney Crosby and Connor
McDavid) to post at least two seasons of at least 75 points (Sidney Crosby and
Patrick Kane are the only ones to do it in each of the three seasons).
And, Kuznetsov took a big step up in the games that matter
most. After three lackluster postseasons
in which he went a combined 11-8-19, minus-9, in 39 games, he went 12-20-32
(leading the league in playoff assists and points), plus-12. It was good enough to earn him five of 18 first-place votes for the Conn Smythe Trophy as to the postseason’s most
valuable player.
But what moment that will be most vivid in the minds of Caps
fans in 2018 might be that moment when he took his place alongside Dale Hunter,
John Druce, Brian Bellows, Joe Juneau, Joel Ward, and Marcus Johansson –
players in Capitals history who clinched a playoff series with a game-winning
goal in overtime:
Odd Kuznetsov Fact…
Evgeny Kuznetsov is one of four centers over the past four
seasons to take more than 3,500 faceoffs and have a winning percentage under 46
percent.
Bonus Kuznetsov Odd Fact…
Kuznetsov’s overtime game-winning series-clinching goal
against the Pittsburgh Penguins doubles the population of game-winning
series-clinching goal scorers in Caps postseason series against the Pens. He joined Calle Johansson, who had the
game-winner in a 6-3 series-clinching win over Pittsburgh in Game 6 of the
first round in 1994.
Fearless’ Take…
Evgeny Kuznetsov is one of 11 players in Capitals history to
record at least 75 goals and at least 250 points in his first five years with
the club. And the list includes a lot of
Capitals royalty.
He is one of seven centers in team history recording at least 0.50 assists per
game (minimum: 250 games with the Caps).
At age 26, he is entering what should l be his prime
productive years. One thing he has done
along the way is become more efficient and, to a degree, more assertive as a
shooter. His shooting percentage has
increased in each of his four full seasons in the league, from 8.7 percent in
his rookie season to 14.4 percent last season, while posting 187 shots on goal
(six short of his career high). He has
become, if not the 1-A choice on the power play, than the 1-B choice. His power play ice time (3:27 last season)
was almost equivalent to that of Nicklas Backstrom (3:31), and his 30 power
play points was only one fewer than Alex Ovechkin for the team lead. He is the only center other than Nicklas
Backstrom with as many as 30 power play points in a season since Robert Lang
did it in 2003-2004 (35 points).
Cheerless’ Take…
Before we go all ga-ga over Evgeny, there has been a bit of
yo-you quality to his last four seasons – 37 points in 80 games in 2014-2015,
followed by 77 points in 2015-2016, down to 59 points in 2016-2017, and then 83
points last season. Then there are the
on-ice performance numbers. Over the
three seasons before this one, his goal differential on-ice versus off ice were
plus-13, plus-27, and plus-19 in 2016-2017.
This past season it was plus-7 (numbers from hockey-reference.com). This might be a product of his becoming the
first line center, with all the added attention that (and being Alex Ovechkin’s
center) brings. But that, and his being
underwater on shot attempts-for on ice at 5-on-5 (48.6 percent) might make one wonder
if he didn’t lean a bit too heavily on power plays (30 of 83 points last
season).
Potential Milestones:
- 400 career games (he needs 60)
- 100 goals (he needs 20)
- 200 career assists (he needs 15)
- 300 career points (he needs 35)
- 200 penalty minutes (he needs 44)
- 20 power play goals (he needs one)
- 100 power play points (he needs 23)
- 6,000 minutes played (he needs 400)
The Big Question… Is
Kuznetsov ready to take his place among the elite centers in the league?
Centers like Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid spring fully
formed (or as fully formed as a teenager can be) on the NHL landscape. Most others, even those achieving elite
status, need a bit of time to get there.
Evgeny Kuznetsov did not enter the league ranks as a teenager, delaying
his entry into the NHL for almost four full seasons after he was drafted in
2010. So, he came in as a more mature
rookie than most, and his formative years took place in his mid-20’s rather
than his early 20’s. But with two
75-point seasons in his last three and his sterling performance in the 2018
postseason, all that remains for him to cement his place among the league
centers is to display a consistency at this level of production with another
75-plus point season. To do it three
times in four seasons would be evidence to that end. Only three players in the league have three
such seasons in the last four – Patrick Kane (3), Jamie Benn (3), and Sidney
Crosby (4).
In the end…
It is probably inaccurate to think of the Caps as having a
number one and a number two center. And
that is a situation to be savored for Caps fans, one that plays no small role
in the team’s success. Nicklas Backstrom
has been a center of number one stature and production for a decade. Evgeny Kuznetsov gave every indication last
season that he can, if he does not already, occupy such a position. But Backstrom has done for that decade. Kuznetsov is still on the low side of his
prime years, and he has an opportunity in 2018-2019 to firmly establish himself
as a true number one center based on a consistency of production. That is the horizon that now stretches out ahead of him.
Projection: 80 games, 28-60-88, plus-8
Photo: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images North America
