Wednesday, November 30, 2022

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 25: Capitals at Kraken, December 1

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Fresh off a 5-1 thumping of the Vancouver Canucks on Tuesday night, the Washington Capitals head down the road and back across the border to face the Seattle Kraken at Climate Pledge Arena to open the December portion of their schedule.  The Caps’ offensive barrage, the most goals they scored on the road in a game since beating the New Jersey Devils, 6-3, on October 24th, paled in comparison to the nine goals the Kraken posted in a 9-8 win over the Los Angeles Kings in LA on Tuesday night that extended the Kraken’s winning streak to six games.  That is a new franchise record, eclipsing the five-game winning streak the Kraken recorded in Games 10-14 to end October and begin November.

That outburst against the Kings continued an amazing burst of offense for the Kraken, who have now scored 26 goals in their last four games.  That’s six and a half goals per game, and no, it is not the year 1984 in The Emerald City.  It is not as if the Kraken offense over those four games has been dominated by a select few, either.  Of the 18 skaters to appear over that four-game span, 11 of them have at least one goal, and 17 of them have points.  The one player without a point – forward Karson Kuhlman – played in only one of those four games.

Perhaps the strangest thing to come out of this four-game run is that the leading point-getter is not a name with which Caps fans are likely familiar.   Matty Beniers is 4-5-9, plus-8, over those last four games, not bad in any circumstance, but he has done it averaging just 15:34 in ice time per game.  While he might not be a household name in these parts, Beniers came to the NHL with a solid background, the second-overall pick of the 2021 Entry Draft and the back half of a University of Michigan two-fer at the top of that draft (defenseman Owen Power was taken first overall by the Buffalo Sabres.  Beniers’s recent performance might have jump started his candidacy for the Calder Trophy as the league’s outstanding rookie.  He leads this year’s class in goals (nine), is second in assists (11), tops in points (20, six more than his nearest competitor – Winnipeg’s Cole Perfetti), tied for first in power play goals (three), fourth in power play points (five), and of 58 rookies with more than five shots on goal, he ranks second in shooting percentage (22.0).  Oddly enough, Seattle’s record is not dominating when Beniers recorded a goal (4-2-1), but they are 8-3-1 when he posted at least one point.  Beniers has never faced the Capitals.

The Kraken seems to be The Wayward Home for Former Capitals, with no fewer than four former Caps to have seen action for Seattle this season – skaters Andre Burakovsky, Justin Schultz, and Daniel Sprong; and goaltender Philipp Grubauer.  Schultz seems to have found a new life with the Kraken.  After going 7-43-50, minus-3, in 120 games over two seasons in Washington, Schultz signed a two-year/$6.0 million deal with Seattle, a deal that has paid off rather well so far.  Schultz leads all Kraken defensemen in points overall (3-13-16), even strength points (3-6-9), and in power play points (0-7-7).  He is the only Seattle defenseman with an overtime goal and one of only two to score an extra-time winner among defensemen in franchise history (Adam Larsson has the other).  He has been on a tear of late, bringing a six-game points streak into Thursday’s contest (2-8-10, plus-8), his ten points over that span tied for most in the league by a defenseman (Winnipeg’s Josh Morrisey is 4-6-10).  Schultz is second among all Seattle skaters in points (2-8-10) in the six-game winning streak for the Kraken.  Schultz is 3-13-16, minus-7, in 20 career games against Washington.

In six years with the Washington Capitals, goaltender Philipp Grubauer rose from something of an afterthought, assumed to have a future as a backup goaltender, to arguable the best backup in the league, and then challenging incumbent number one goaltender Braden Holtby for the top slot, ultimately starting the first two games of the opening round of the 2018 playoffs.  He faltered under the spotlight of the postseason, yielding to Holtby in the third period of Game 2 against Columbus as the Caps went on to win the Stanley Cup, but his postseason struggle did not deprive him of a substantial payday, a three-year/$10.0 million contract with the Colorado Avalanche as a free agent.  Unfortunately, however, his numbers started to slip a bit once he left DC.  In his six years with the Caps, Grubauer was 43-31-11, 2.29, .923, with six shutouts.  Of 34 goalies in Capitals history to log at least 1,000 minutes, his .923 save percentage ranks first.  But then he went 66-30-10, 2.38, .918, with 12 shutouts in three years with the Avalanche.  Despite finishing third in the voting for the Vezina Trophy in 2020-2021 off a 30-9-1/1.95/.922/seven shutout performance, it was not enough for the Avalanche to extend an offer more acceptable to the free agent than that which he signed with Seattle, a six-year/$35.4 million deal in July 2021. 

Like the rest of the team, Grubauer struggled last season, going 18-31-5, 3.16, .889, with two shutouts.  His goals against average ranked 38th of 48 goalies logging at least 1,500 minutes, and his save percentage ranked dead last in that group.  Further, as a reflection of the struggles of the team around him, only once among 55 appearances did he win as many as three consecutive decisions.  On the other side, he had two brutal stretches, the first running from December 6th through January 12th over which he was 0-6-2, 4,31, ,854; and another from February 9th through March 8th, going 0-8-1, 3.70, .886.  This season has been one of frustration for Grubauer, who was on injured reserve after suffering an injury against Colorado in late October.  Between the injury and otherwise iffy play, Grubauer has been limited to five appearances, going 1-1-1, 3.35, .870, and he has lost the number one spot to Martin Jones (12-4-2, 2.90, .893, one shutout).  He has one appearance since returning from injury, getting his first win of the season in 20-save effort the led the Kraken to a 4-2 win over the Vegas Golden Knights last Friday.  In four career appearances against the Caps, Grubauer is 2-1-1, 2.78, .920.

1.  Before the Kraken visited the Los Angeles Kings, they were averaging 3.57 goals per game, tied for sixth in the league in scoring offense.  After “Back to the Eighties” night in LA and a 9-8 win over the Kings, the Kraken saw their scoring offense jump to 3.82 goals per game, third-best scoring offense in the league.

2.  One would not say this often, but good thing this game is in Seattle.  That nine-goal strafing of the Kings in Los Angeles left the Kraken with the top scoring offense in the league in road games – 4.50 goals per game.  In contrast, their 3.25 goals per game at Climate Pledge Arena ranks 17th in home scoring offense.

3.  Again from the “good thing this game is in Seattle file,” while the Kraken are 8-1-1 on the road so far this season (third in the league in points percentage (.850)), they are just 6-4-2 at home (.583/T-15th).

4.  The strange home/road split extends to the power play for the Kraken.  On the road, the power play is at 29.7 percent (fourth in the league), while at home it is just 22.2 percent (T-19th).

5.  What Seattle does do well at home is finish strong.  In 12 home games to date, the Kraken scored 24 goals over the first 40 minutes of games and allowed 25.  In the third period, though, they scored 13 and allowed only eight (tied for sixth-fewest in the league).

1.  The Caps are 30th in the league in points percentage in road games (.333/3-7-2).

2.  Only three teams have fewer wins in road games than the Capitals (three) – Anaheim (two), Chicago (two), and Columbus (one).

3.  Special teams performance on the road has been poor for the Caps. Their power play ranks 30th (13.3 percent), their penalty kill ranks 16th (76.7 percent), and their special teams index – power play plus penalty kill percentages – ranks 26th (90.0).

4.  The Caps have not yet won a one-goal game on the road (0-1-2), one of four teams to have played at least one one-goal game on the road yet to win one (Columbus, Dallas, and Pittsburgh are the others).

5.  The Caps scored first against Vancouver in their 5-1 win on Tuesday night, only the fourth time in 12 tries they scored first on the road (2-2-0); they trailed first eight times (1-5-2).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Seattle: Andre Burakovsky

Has Andre Burakovsky, who left the Washington Capitals after the 2018-2019 season, found a home in Seattle?  Let’s back up a moment.  Burakovsky was traded after that 2018-2019 season to Colorado for a second-round draft pick in 2020 , a third-round draft pick in 2020, and Scott Kosmachuk.  On the Caps’ side, the second-round pick was packaged with another draft pick and sent to San Jose for defenseman Brenden Dillon.  The third-rounder was packaged with a first-round pick (24th overall) and traded to Carolina for the 22nd overall pick, which became Hendrix Lapierre.

But back to Burakovsky.  In 191 games over three seasons with the Avalanche, he posted 61 goals and 150 points with a 17.2 shooting percentage.  Compare that with his tenure in Washington during which he pasted 62 goals, 145 points, and a 12.8 shooting percentage – in 137 more games (391).  He was making progress and at least giving indications he could be a solid offensive contributor if given the responsibility that, frankly, he was not granted in Washington (he averaged 12:45 in ice time per game in DC while getting 15:37 in ice time per game with the Avalanche), although it would not be a stretch to say he skated with superior line mates.  But when his two-year/$9.8 million contract he had with Colorado expired, he was allowed to depart in free agency and was signed by Seattle to a five-year/$27.5 million contract last July 13th. 

Burakovsky is paying early dividends with his new team, suggesting that the third time – or third team – is the charm.  Burakovsky is averaging more than a point per game (9-14-23), although his minus-4 rating is the first time he has found himself as a minus player in nine seasons.  Burakovsky is another of those players whose goal scoring relationship to wins is not impressive (4-2-1 when he posted at least one goal), although the Kraken do better when he records points generally (10-4-2).  And, there is the matter of ice time.  When skating less than 18 minutes, Seattle is 9-2-2, but they are just 5-3-1 when Burakovsky skated more than 18 minutes.  He brins a four-game points streak into this game (5-3-8, plus-1).  Burakovsky is 1-2-3, minus-2, in four career games against the Caps.

Washington: Nick Jensen

The Caps have not done well on the road this season, but Nick Jensen is not high on the list of problem players.  In 12 road games this season, Jensen has the best plus-minus rating (plus-4), has the best even strength goal differential on ice (plus-3), has been charged with only three giveaways (0.73 giveaways per 60 minutes; fewest among Caps defensemen regardless of games played), and taken only one penalty to date while drawing five (the plus-4 net penalties is best on the team on the road).  Even his missed shots are, in their own way, a positive.  All of the 12 shots credited as missed were wide, not over the net, at least giving teammates an opportunity to redirect pucks sent to the net.

And Jensen has been a contributor on offense.  He is one of three Caps defensemen with at least one goal on the road, and his five points in 12 road games (1-4-5) rank second to John Carlson (5-3-8).  He leads all Caps defensemen in even strength points (1-3-4) and is one of two Caps defensemen with a shorthanded point (Carlson has the other one).  And he has done it while averaging 20:23 in ice time over those 12 road games.  And it is not as if his numbers skew that heavily to road performance.  Jensen is 1-4-5, plus-4 overall in 12 road games and 0-5-5, plus-1 in 12 home games.  Jensen has also spread the joy around in terms of divisional opponents.  He is 1-3-4, plus-2, in five games against Metropolitan Division opponents; 0-2-2, even, in eight games against the Atlantic Division; 0-2-2, plus-1, in five games against the Central Division; and 0-2-2, plus-2, in six games against the Pacific Division.

If there is a concern, at least with Jensen’s offense, it is that it tapered off after a hot start.  He was 1-6-7, plus-6, in his first ten games overall, over which the Caps went 5-4-1.  In his next nine games, he was 0-3-3, minus-2, over which Washington went 2-5-2.  And now, Jensen into the matchup with the Kraken without a point and a plus-1 rating over his last five games, over which the Caps are 3-2-0.  Jensen is 0-1-1, plus-2, in two career games against Seattle.

In the end…

The Caps did a lot of things right against Vancouver in the 5-1 win.  The first thing to note is first, as in scoring first.  When they scored first against the Canucks, it broke a four-game streak on the road over which the Caps allowed the first goal.  They did not win any of those games (0-3-1).  Second, there was the matter of leading late.  The win over Vancouver was the first time the Caps took a lead into the third period of a road game since October 29th when they led the Nashville Predators, 1-0, on their way to a 3-0 win.  It broke a streak of six road games in which they were either tied (twice) or trailing (four times).  The Caps were 0-4-2 in those games (three of the losses in regulation were by three or more goals).  In this area, it’s not hard.  You score first, you win more than you lose. You put pressure on teams to open up, creating chances for yourself that could likely force opponents to dig out of a third period hole, and teams trailing after two periods in this league rarely emerge as winners.  After the offensive fireworks these two teams lit in their most recent performances, it could be a low scoring game, putting a premium on getting that first goal and frustrating the other guys.

Capitals 2 – Kraken 1

 

Monday, November 28, 2022

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 24: Capitals at Canucks, November 29

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals press on with their season-long six-game road trip with a visit to Vancouver on Tuesday night.  They will be facing a Canucks team that had a disastrous start to the 2022-2023 season, but have played much better over the past five weeks.  The Caps will be looking to return to the win column after dropping a 5-1 decision to the New Jersey Devils on Saturday in their last outing.

After an 0-5-2 start to the season, the Canucks have righted themselves, going 9-5-1 in 15 games since October 27th.  They did it largely through an unrelenting offensive attack that averages a league-best 4.07 goals per game over that 15-game stretch.  It has been a balanced attack with 16 skaters posting at least one goal and every one of the 25 skaters to play over that span registering at least one point.  Bo Horvat leads the goal scorers over the recent run with 13 in 15 games, a number that also ranks second in the league over that span, trailing only Dallas’ Jason Robertson (16 goals in 15 games).  

And as hot as Robertson has been for Dallas, Horvat has been more efficient.  His 13 goals have come on 53 shots, a 24.5 shooting percentage that ranks fourth in the league over this period among the 168 skaters to log at least 30 shots on goal.  Horvat, who recorded a career high 31 goals last season in 70 games, is well on his way to eclipsing that mark this season with 17 goals in 22 games overall this season.  He is already within a hat trick of posting his sixth 20-goal season in his last seven, missing only the 2020-2021 season when he had 19 goals in 56 games in a schedule abbreviated by COVID concerns. He is also on a pace to set other personal career bests.  His six power play goals are almost half-way to his career high of 13, set last season.  With 72 shots on goal in 22 games, he is on a pace to top the 227 shots on goal he posted in 2018-2019.  His 21:01 in ice time per game is a career high, and his 57.5 faceoff winning percentage to date is also a career best.  Horvat, despite the offensive numbers he has put up, suggesting he spends a fair amount of time with the puck, has only three giveaways on his record this season.  His 0.38 giveaways per 60 minutes are 13th fewest among 518 skaters appearing in at least 15 games.  Horvat is 6-7-13, minus-4, in 13 career games against Washington.

Over the last 15 games for the Canucks, four of the nine defensemen to dress have goals.  None of them are named Quinn Hughes.  But no defenseman has half as many points at Hughes recorded in the 15-game run.  He is 0-16-16.  No player in the league has more assists with no goals scored over those 15 games.  Which is not to say Hughes has been ineffective on offense, despite his no goals on 22 shots.  He was particularly effective on the power play where he recorded nine assists in those 15 games, compared to the seven even strength assists he posted.  None of this is surprising.  Hughes has yet to record a goal this season in 18 games.  And it really is not all that surprising in his overall career context.  In 223 career games to date over five seasons, Hughes has a total of 19 goals.  He is much more the distributor, the “playmaking” defenseman in the offensive end, especially on the power play where about half of his total career assists (167) have been recorded (84).  What Hughes most certainly is not is a physical defenseman, not much of a surprise here, either, given his slight stature by NHL standards (5’10/175 pounds).  Since he entered the league in 2018-2019, he has the fewest hits-per-60 minutes of any of the 238 defensemen to appear in at least 100 games, his 0.52 hits-per-60 less than half that of Shea Theodore’s 1.05.  Hughes is 1-8-9, minus-2, in five career games against the Caps.

Vancouver’s goaltending situation might be said to be “in flux.”  On the one hand, there is the goalie that most expected would be the number one netminder for years to come in Thatcher Demko, but he is having a disappointing year (3-9-2, 3.81, .885).  Coming into this season, he was a goalie that fans might have thought was on the brink of taking the job by the throat and taking the next step after posting consecutive seasons with a .915 save percentage and last season finishing seventh in voting for the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goalie.  His taking that next step has not happened.  And what has been particularly worrisome about his performance to date this season is how consistently poor it has been.  He has yet to post consecutive games in which he stopped 90 or more percent of shots faced.  He has yet to earn standings points in consecutive games this season.  He allowed four or more goals in nine of 14 appearances and allowed fewer than three only once (he stopped 37 of 38 shots in a 4-1 win over Los Angeles on November 18th.  He is just 1-4-1 on home ice, although there is a bit of bad luck in there with his having a .918 save percentage on home ice. 

On the other hand, there is Spencer Martin.  You would not know it to look at his record before this season, but Martin is making a case to steal the number one goaltending job for the Canucks.  In eight appearances this season, Martin is 6-1-1, 3.12, .907.  Not sparkling numbers, at least not until one compares them to Demko’s, but not bad.  The eight appearances this season is just one short of his career total in the NHL (nine) in two previous seasons with Colorado (who took him in the third round (63rd overall) in the 2013 draft) and the Canucks.  It is also worth noting that the season he played in Colorado was the 2016-2017 season, after which he embarked on a minor league journey that took him to the San Antonio Rampage, the Colorado Eagles, the Syracuse Crunch, and the Abbotsford Canucks, as well as the Orlando Solar Bears in the ECHL, before landing in Vancouver for six games last season (3-0-3, 1.74, .950).  However, he has had “consistency” issues of a sort similar to those of Demko in that he allowed four or more goals in four of his eight appearances and allowed fewer than three goals only twice.  Of relevance to this game, he has not had much work on home ice – two appearances (2-0-0, 3.00, .909).  Martin has never faced the Capitals.

1.  Vancouver is averaging 3.63 goals per game this season on home ice, the eight-best scoring offense at home in the league, but they are allowing 3.50 goals per game on home ice, the 23rd-ranked scoring defense in the league.  Things happen at Rogers Arena.

2.  The Canucks have the second-best home power play in the league on home ice (38.5 percent).  They also have the worst penalty kill on home ice in the league (65.0 percent).  Yup…things happen at Rogers Arena.

3.  And when things happen at Rogers Arena, they seem to happen late.  Over the first 40 minutes of games on home ice, Vancouver out-scored opponents, 15-14.  In the third periods of games, the Canucks scored 14 goals and allowed 14 goals.

4.  Of the eight home games played by Vancouver so far, five ended in decisions by three or more goals, the Canucks with a 3-2 record in those games.

5.  Vancouver has done a good job of protecting the puck by one measure. Their 6.44 giveaways per 60 minutes are fourth-lowest in the league.

1.  The Capitals have had a hard time scoring goals in November.  Their 2.46 goals per game for the month is the fourth-worst scoring offense in the league.

2.  The Caps have five first period goals in 11 road games, tied for fourth-fewest in the league; their goal differential in the first periods of road games is minus-8. Only Arizona (minus-9) and Nashville (minus-9) are worse.

3.  Washington is 30th in the league in faceoff winning percentage on the road (45.7 percent).

4.  Only the Anaheim Ducks have fewer empty net goals this season (none) than the Caps (one).

5.  The Caps have never shut out the Canucks in Vancouver in 50 tries.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Vancouver: J.T. Miller

Last summer, the future of forward J.T. Miller was a topic worth pondering.  About to embark on the last year of a five-year/$26.5 million contract he originally signed with Tampa Bay before being traded to Vancouver in June 2019, he was coming off a career year in goals (32), assists (67) and points (99) that made him a potentially valuable trading asset and an asset that would be attractive to any number of teams. But the suspense of “Where Will J.T. Land” ended on September 2nd when he signed a seven-year/$56.0 million extension with Vancouver, a deal with no-movement clauses in each year of the contract, according to capfriendly.com

Miller is not putting up points at the same pace this season (1.09 per game) that he did last season (1.24), but he is hardly giving reason that the deal was without merit.  He started a bit sluggishly, going five games with just one point after posting a goal and an assist on Opening Night.  But then, he rolled off a seven-game points streak (5-5-10, plus-2), had the streak broken, then peeled off another six straight games with a point (3-3-6, minus-5) that he takes into the game against Washington.

Unfortunately for the Canucks, his contributions have not been sufficient to build winning success.  Vancouver is just 4-5-1 in the ten games in which he has goals, 9-7-1 in the 17 games in which he has points.  They are just 2-4-0 in games in which Miller has a power play goal, and Miller has just one game-winning goal to date, that coming last Saturday in the Canucks’ 5-1 win over the Vegas Golden Knights.  Miller is 5-10-15, minus-6, in 28 career games against the Caps.

Washington: T.J. Oshie

Twenty-three games into the season, and the fears of Caps fans with respect to one player have been realized.  When T.J. Oshie is in the lineup, good things generally happen.  He is second on the team in points per game (0.75), he is one of four players with a plus rating this season (plus-2), he is tied for second in power play goals (two), he is third on the team in shooting percentage (15.8; minimum: 10 shots on goal), he is third among forwards in hits-per-60 minutes (10.14; minimum,: ten games played), only Alex Ovechkin has more first goals (three) than he does (two), he leads all skaters in net penalties per 60 minutes (plus-1.19).  Most important, the Caps are 7-5-0 in the games in which he played.

“The games in which he played.”  There is the problem.  Oshie has taken the ice 12 times in 23 games so far this season. Oshie suffered a lower body injury on October 29th against the Nashville Predators and left the game after two shifts and 1:51 in ice time.  He missed 11 games, over which the Caps went 2-6-3 and scored only 27 goals (2.45 per game).  Missed games.  In eight seasons with the Caps, including this season, Oshie missed 89 of 558 games, appearing in 84 percent of the games on the regular season schedule.  Of those 89 missed games, Oshie missed 49 over last season and this, a span of 105 games of the regular season schedule.

Although Alex Ovechkin is the engine that drives the Caps, one could make the case that Oshie is the beating heart of this team, a player whose feisty, give-no-quarter style seems to rub off on his teammates when he is in the lineup (the Caps are 290-129-50 when he was in the lineup over his eight seasons with the Caps, a 51-23-9/111-point pace per 82 games).  It doesn’t hurt that he is also a talented player and an important offensive contributor.  If the Caps are going to make a run in the last 60 games of the season (now 59), Oshie is going to have to be a regular fixture in the lineup.  He is 9-16-25, plus-3, in 33 career games against Vancouver.

In the end…

The Caps lost a game on Saturday against the Devils in which their underlying numbers might have predicted a win, and that followed consecutive wins.  They will face a Vancouver team on a three-game winning streak, but two of those wins were by one goal, one of them in overtime. It suggests a close contest, but the Caps need to be getting two points out of “close contests” if they are to climb back into the thick of things in the playoff race.

Capitals 4 – Canucks 2

Sunday, November 27, 2022

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 7

The Washington Capitals posted a winning record in Week 7, continuing their turnaround two-step over the last five weeks, alternating winning and losing weeks.  The Caps started well with a hard-fought overtime win over the Philadelphia Flyers and a shutout of the Calgary Flames, but playing a third game in four night wrapped around a holiday, playing the second of back-to-back games and against a hot team at that on the road, and the week ended in unfortunate fashion with a loss to New Jersey.


Record (2-1-0)

The Caps had their fourth winning record in seven weeks this season.  What was mildly disappointing was that the team had the chance to post their first week this season without a loss in regulation but came up short when they lost to the New Jersey Devils, 5-1, on Saturday night to wrap up the 2-1-0 week.  The loss to the Devils was just the fifth intra-divisional game that the Caps played through 23 games this season.  In posting a 2-2-1 divisional record, that 5-1 loss to the Devils was the second time in two regulation losses that the Caps lost by three or more goals (they lost to Pittsburgh, 4-1, on November 9th).  And, the loss to the Devils, in New Jersey for the second time this season, was the second time the decision was by three or more goals, the Caps winning the first meeting in Newark, 6-3, back on October 24th.  That loss to New Jersey brought an early-season problem in to focus – an inability to win on the road.  The Caps have played 11 road games through seven weeks and are 2-7-2.  Through their first 11 road games last season, Washington was 7-2-2 on their way to a league-best 25-10-6 record on the road.


Offense: 2.33/game (season: 2.70 / 26th)

It was not a prolific week on the offensive side of the puck.  The Caps scored three goals once in regulation, two goals in regulation in another, and were held to a single goal in their other contest.  The Caps output, such as it was, was balanced with six players recording the seven goals for the week (Alex Ovechkin had two).  Nine players recorded points, Ovechkin (2-2-4) and T.J. Oshie (1-3-4) leading the way.  The Caps ended the week having recorded more than three goals only once in their last seven games, and they lost in that instance (5-4 in a Gimmick to St. Louis on November 17th.  And the goal-scoring at home is something of an issue.  Although the Caps did score three goals in the two home games in Week 7, they have 21 goals in their last eight games on home ice (2.63 goals per game) after scoring 15 goals in their first four games at Capital One Arena (3.75 per game).  At least every one of the 18 skaters to dress in Week 7 recorded at least one shot on goal, Ovechkin (15) and John Carlson (14) leading the club.

Defense: 2.33 / game (season: 3.13 / 15th)

It was a good week on the defensive side of the puck, and it started with shots allowed.  Washington allowed 84 shots on goal for the week (28.0 per game) and held two of the opponents under 30.  The 23 shots they allowed the Flyers to open the week were the second fewest number of shots allowed by the team this season (they allowed 22 to Montreal in a 3-1 win on October 15th).  Even the loss to the Devils was impressive in a way, the Caps allowing the Devils only 38 shot attempts for the game.  The flip side of that, however, is that New Jersey managed to put 29 of those attempts on goal.  It was a bit of an odd week in one respect.  Three Capitals among the 18 to dress were not on ice for an even strength goal scored against.  However, none of Aliaksei Protas, Garnet Hathaway, or Nic Dowd averaged as much as ten minutes of even strength ice time per game for the week.

Goaltending: 2.33 / .917 / 1 shutout (season: 2.84 / .908 / 2 shutouts)

Overall, it was a decent week, but individually, it was Darcy Kuemper’s week to shine.  He stopped 53 of 55 shots in two games (a .964 save percentage) and posted his second shutout of the season.  That the victim of the shutout was the Calgary Flames should surprise no one.  It was his fourth career shutout of the Flames in 11 appearances against Calgary, and it left him with a 7-2-1, 1.61, .953 career record against the Flames.  What is more, Kuemper was reasonably consistent across games, but especially efficient early and late.  He had a .960 save percentage in the first periods of games (24 saves on 25 shots), .909 in the second periods of games (10-for-11), and a perfect 1.000 save percentage in the third periods of games (19-for-19). 

Charlie Lindgren got the call on Saturday night, and he probably deserved better.  Not that he played all that well (the goal from the goal line extended by Jack Hughes was ugly), but the Caps could not translate good underlying numbers into goals to give him more goal support.  Lindgren finds himself in a bit of a slump.  After stopping 151 of 165 shots in his first five appearances this season (.915 save percentage) in going 2-1-1, he stopped just 44 of 53 shots (.830) in his last two appearances, both losses (0-1-1).

Power Play: 3-for-9 / 33.3 percent (season: 20.5 percent / 20th)

After going 1-for-16 in Week 6, a correction of sorts was, if not expected, at least not surprising.  The Caps had their fourth three-or-more power play goal week of the season and their best conversion rate (33.3 percent) since Week 2 (4-for-10/40.0 percent).  Marcus Johansson, John Carlson, and Alex Ovechkin potted power play goals for the week.  Seven skaters recorded at least one power play point with Ovechkin and Johansson each getting a pair.  Five Caps recorded power play shots, Ovechkin finishing the week with eight of the 20 power play shots recorded.  Four other skaters recorded three apiece.  Not that this will surprise any Caps fan, but through seven weeks, no skater in the league has skated a larger share of his team’s power play minutes than Ovechkin, and it is not close.  He logged 95.1 percent of the power play time on ice to date, almost 14 percentage points more than the next player in line, Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl (81.4 percent).  It is worth noting as well that John Carlson is eighth on that list (77.5 percent), the highest ranking of any defenseman in the league.


Penalty Killing 8-for-9 / 88.9 percent (season:  percent 79.7 / 14th)

It was a good week on the other side of special teams as well.  The 8.9 percent penalty kill was second-best for the team this season (they were 7-for-7/100.0 percent in Week 5).  What was noteworthy about this week’s penalty kill was 11 skaters logging at least 90 seconds of shorthanded ice time for the week, with only Trevor van Riemsdyk getting more than ten minutes (10:25).  The Caps have also done a good job in holding down chances on home ice.  They faced only nine power play chances for the week, and the four they faced against Philadelphia in the first game of the week is the only instance this season in 12 home games that they faced more than three shorthanded situations in a game.  The efficiency of the penalty kill matters, too.  Overall, the Caps allowed at least one power play goal in 12 games so far, and the team is 1-8-3 in those games.

Faceoffs: 86-for-166 / 51.8 percent (percent 47.4 / 24th)

Another positive week in the circle.  One wishes the Caps would show improvement in other areas, but improvement in any area is welcome.  There was a team stat in this area that stood out.  Washington took 74 offensive zone draws in Week 7 and only 48 in the defensive zone, an indicator of ice tilting toward the Caps, at least for zone starts.  Now, if only their efficiency in the offensive zone matched the volume of faceoffs taken.  The Caps were underwater in the offensive zone for the week (45.9 percent), and only Lars Eller (9-for-13/69.2 percent) could be said to have a superior week on draws in the offensive end.  He also was the only Capital taking more than one defensive draw to finish over 50 percent (9-for-17/52.9 percent).  Washington managed, or at least had the good fortune, to have the right guys in the right zones taking faceoffs.  Nic Dowd, more a defensive oriented forward, took only one offensive draw for the week (a loss), and Evgeny Kuznetsov, who often struggles in this phase of the game, took only one defensive draw (he lost).  Of the five Caps to take at least ten draws overall, three finished over 50 percent – Eller (61.5 percent), Dowd (54.1 percent), and Dylan Strome (52.9 percent).

Goals by Period

The Caps showed some life in the first periods of games, something that has not come easy for them on offense this season.  The two goals they had in the first periods of games let them break even in the opening 20 minutes.  They struggled in the second periods, going minus-2 over the three games, but they did win the third periods overall and had the overtime goal against Philadelphia (their first OT goal of the season.  Despite the two first period goals, the Caps did finish the week 31st overall in first period goals scored (11), only Arizona scoring fewer (nine, in three fewer games).  And, despite allowing just the two third period goals, the Caps still were tied for having allowed the seventh-most third period goals for the season (29).


Year-over-Year

While there was some marginal improvement in some areas in Week 7, the Caps continue to lag significant behind last year’s performance through an equal number of games.  The minus-35 goal differential year-to-year (minus-20 scored, plus-15 allowed) remains a problem and must be improved considerably if the Caps are to contend.  It would be difficult to get that improvement on the offensive side from the power play, which has had more chances this season, more goals scored, and better efficiency than at the same point last season.  Reducing shorthanded situations (eight more this season than last through 23 games) would be a good place to start, despite the decent record in this area noted above.  Two things that stand out as indicators that the Caps are chasing games is the plus-103 in blocked shots over last year and the plus-37 in credited hits, both of which reflect the other team having the puck.  Reducing penalties would be welcome as well, the Caps having been hit with 19 more penalties through 23 games this year than last.

In the end…

You take the wins when and against whom you can get them.  And, you learn lessons from losses and apply them going forward.  The Caps played well enough to win all three games this week, but the New Jersey game looked from the start like one of those game any team in this league is bound to lose, not matter how well they play or how good their underlying numbers look.  It happens.  The object now is to take a mostly successful week and build on that momentum when the Caps head to the northwest in Week 8.

Three Stars

  • First Star: Darcy Kuemper (2-0-0, 0.99, .964, one shutout)
  • Second Star: Alex Ovechkin (2-2-4, even, one OT/game-winning goal, 15 shots on goal, 30 shot attempts, ten credited hits, 20:32 in ice time per game)
  • Third Star: T.J. Oshie (2-2-4, plus-2, one game-winning goal, seven shots on goal, 16 shot attempts, 12 credited hits, four blocked shots (led forwards))

Sunday, November 20, 2022

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 6


The Washington Capitals suffered one of their worst weeks in recent memory, failing to win a game and performing poorly almost across the board in the top-end statistical categories.  It was a gloomy prelude to Thanksgiving week and an indicator that not only are the injuries this team has suffered continue to bite, but that the performance generally has deteriorated over recent weeks.

Record (0-3-1)

It is hard to find an adjective that encompasses Week 6 for the Caps.  Poor, ghastly, abysmal?  We really don’t want to hear “unacceptable,” because it is one of the most over-used and abused terms applied to a team suffering misfortune.  But this week was close.  Each of the three regulation losses were by three or more goals, and the Caps might have suffered a fourth if St. Louis didn’t collapse in the last five minutes, giving up a two-goal lead to allow the Caps to force extra time.  It has been a long time since the Capitals found themselves ranked 24th in the league in points (17) and 25th in points percentage (.425), but that is the hole from which the team must dig itself to get back into playoff contention.

Offense: 2.25/game (season: 2.75 / 26th)

John Carlson is a talented offensive defenseman, one of the best in this era of hockey, but if he is your leading goal scorer (three) and point producer (four) for the week, you have problems on offense.  And when it is Conor Sheary, a feisty sort, whose best features are effort and versatility more than pure offensive skill, who is second in goals scored (two), the problems accumulate.  Four other Capitals added one goal apiece.  Noteworthy among the Caps who did not were Evgeny Kuznetsov and Anthony Mantha, from whom more and more consistent contributions are vital to this club.  Of the 20 skaters who played in Week 6, 14 recorded at least one point, Dylan Strome and Alex Ovechkin adding three apiece to the four posted by Carlson.  As if to top off the misery, though, it was Matt Irwin, who did not record a point, who had the best rating for the week (plus-2).  Fifteen Caps were on the minus side of the ledger.

Defense: 4.75 / game (season: 3.25 / 18th)

The Caps did play three teams who finished the week in the top-11 in scoring offense in the league (Tampa Bay/10th, Florida/11th, and Colorado/sixth), but allowing 4.75 goals per game, and four to the 22nd-ranked offense in the league (St. Louis) just will not cut it.  It was not as if the Caps allowed a ton of shots, although they were all over the place with that statistic (a high of 43 shots allowed against Florida and a low of 24 against St. Louis).  And only against Tampa Bay did they allow more shot attempts at 5-on-5 than they had on offense.  In fact, the 27 shot attempts (not shots, shot attempts) at fives against St. Louis was a season low.  But this was a week that was generically bad in an important sense.  No Capital forward who played in more than two games finished the week with a positive goal differential at even strength (Connor McMichael was plus-1 in two games).

Goaltending: 4.26 / .868 (season: 2.91 / .907 / 1 shutout)

Whether it was the defense giving up too many quality chances, the goalies being off their game, or a combination of both, the goaltending numbers were entirely forgettable.  The big problem was an inability to stop puck early in games, at least consistently.  Cas in point, Darcy Kuemper.  He allowed four goals on nine shots in the first period against Tampa Bay before being relieved by Charlie Lindgren in a 6-3 loss, but then he stopped 21 of 22 first period shots against Florida in his next game.  Kuemper wrapped up his week stopping seven of eight first period shots in the 4-0 loss to Colorado to end Week 6.  Uneven would be perhaps the best way to describe his first periods.  Add Lindgren’s four saves on seven shots effort in the first period against St. Louis, and it made for a difficult week of first period goaltending – 37 saves on 46 shots (.804 save percentage).  A .925 save percentage in the second periods of games could not make up for the first period woes, and a .868 save percentage in the third periods of games guaranteed an unsuccessful week in goal and in the win column.

Power Play: 1-for-16 / 6.3 percent (season: 18.9 percent / 24th)

Do the Caps miss Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie that much on the power play?  Well, they are out, and there is only the glimmer of when either might return, so it is what it is.  And what the power play is, is awful, not “full of awe.”  The Caps ended the week ranked 24th in the league and sinking like a stone.  John Carlson had the only power play goal for the week, a week that is the worst week of the season, efficiency-wise.  It was especially discouraging given that the previous two weeks saw the Caps top 23 percent in power play efficiency.  Evgeny Kuznetsov had an especially frustrating week on the man advantage, failing to convert any of his team-high eight power play shots on goal.  It is also worth noting that the usual trigger man on the power play, Alex Ovechkin, finished fourth for the week in power play shots per 60 minutes, recording only four shots in four games.

Penalty Killing 7-for-12 / 58.3 percent (season:  percent 78.3 / 15th)

Inconsistency from week to week has been the most obvious feature of the Caps’ penalty kill this season, alternating good weeks (perfect weeks in Weeks 3 and 5) with poor ones (50.0 percent in Week 2 and 78.6 percent in Week 4).  Week 6 extended the misfortune of even-numbered weeks with a sub-60 percent performance.  That the Caps endured 3.00 shorthanded situations per game, tied for sixth-fewest in the league for the week, was a blessing.  The allowance of power play goals has become a problem.  The Caps have been unable to dig out from underneath the difficulties they create, posting a 1-7-3 record in the 11 games this season when they allowed a power play goal, including 0-3-1 this week, allowing at least one power play goal in each of the four games.

Faceoffs: 124-for-246 / 50.4 percent (percent 46.8 / 26th)

Well, they were over 50 percent on faceoffs.  And here there was another indicator of frustration for the Caps.  Washington took 34 more draws in the offensive zone – more than eight per game – than they did in the defensive zone.  One would think that territorial advantage would have led to more success.  But the Caps won just 46.2 percent of the 104 offensive draws they took.  Dylan Strome struggled quite a bit in the offensive zone, winning only 12 of 34 draws 35.3 percent.  Overall, of the four Caps taking at least ten faceoffs, all but Strome finished at 50 percent or better.


Goals by Period

Zero.  None.  Not one.  Not a single first period goal in four games for the week.  By the time the week was over, only Arizona had fewer first period goals (eight) for the season than the Caps (nine).  Only seven times in 20 games have the Caps posted at least one first period goal (they are 4-2-1 in those games).  They have one first period goal in three of their last 13 games.  Small wonder, then, that the Caps have taken a lead into the first intermission only four times in 20 games through six weeks (2-2-0 record).  Allowing nine goals in the first periods of games in Week 6 set in stone a poor week, record-wise.  There was too much having to come from behind in a league where that sort of thing is difficult.


Year-over-Year

The recent struggles of the Caps make this comparison hard to look at.  This year’s edition of the team pales in comparison to last year’s in far more categories than those in which they improved.  The power play is up marginally this year over last, as are faceoffs.  The Caps are the rare team this season that has more credited takeaways than giveaways.  But other than that, this team trails last year’s almost across the board, in many cases significantly, and is falling further and further behind.  It is not a good sign that the deterioration in performance is so broad and jeopardizes their playoff chances considerably.


In the end... 

It ain’t good.  Week 6 might have been the worst of the season, and just 20 games into it this team looks gassed and listless on too many nights.  The players asked to fill in and step up for those who are injured have not filled the gaps adequately, but it is not as if there are any healthy players who are in danger of having career-defining seasons at the moment.  The team doesn’t seem to have an answer for what ails them, and it is not clear that even the return of Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson, and T.J. Oshie can raise the performance level of the team to make it a strong contender.  They are starting to lose touch with the division leaders, the Caps now five points behind the fourth-place New York Rangers in the Metropolitan Division with the Rangers holding a game in hand.  The Caps need a winning streak – a long one – to get them back in the chase, but right now, they give few signs of running off the sort of streak they need.  That has to change.  Quickly.

Three Stars

  • First Star: John Carlson (3-1-4, minus-4, played in his 900th career game, one power play goal, 19 shots on goal, 34 shot attempts, 25:00 in ice time per game)
  • Second Star: Alex Ovechkin (1-2-3, minus-2, 17 shots on goal 29 shot attempts, 22:58 in ice time per game)
  • Third Star: Conor Sheary (2-0-2, minus-2, nine shots on goal, 14 shot attempts, four takeaways/one giveaway)

PROGRAMMING NOTE... We will be off for the remainder of this week. We hope you and yours have a happy and safe Thanksgiving!

Friday, November 18, 2022

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 20: Avalanche at Capitals, November 19

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals reach the 20-game mark of the season a wounded team that is struggling more, perhaps, than at any time since they last missed the playoffs, in 2013-2014.  They fought hard to succeed in the face of season-opening absences among top players, going 5-4-0 in their first nine games, capped with a 3-0 shutout of the Nashville Predators on October 29th.  That looks like the high point of their season to date.  Since losing their next game, 3-2 in a Gimmick to the Carolina Hurricanes on Hallowe’en, their season has turned into one long “trick” with barely a treat in sight, going 2-5-3 since that win over the Predators.  And now, after a winless three-game road trip (0-2-1), they return home on Saturday night, but catching no break in a brutal stretch of the schedule.  The Caps get to host the defending Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche.

After struggling with might have been a case of “Stanley Cup Hangover” to start the season, going 4-4-1 in their first nine games, the Avs come to town with a 5-1-0 record over their last six games.  The have done it on both sides of the puck, their 4.17 goals per game tied with Vegas for the second-best scoring offense over that span and the 2.17 goals allowed per game tied with New Jersey for fifth-best in the league.

Colorado has been led on offense by a trio of players who have ten or more points apiece over the six games.  Mikko Rantanen leads the threesome with seven goals and 14 points.  The eight-year veteran is among the least noisy scorers in the league.  But don’t be fooled by what might seem a lack of attention to his production. He is well on his way to posting his third straight 30-plus goal scoring season (and fourth of his career) with 11 goals in 15 games overall.  He seems a sure bet to going 7-for-7 in 20-plus goal seasons in the seven full seasons he has played in the NHL, including this one.  And, with those 11 goals and 25 points overall, he is on a 60-goal, 137-point pace that would obliterate the career highs of 36 goals and 92 points he set last season. 

Rantanen does seem to have a slowdown in his future, though.  The 11 goals on 47 shots works out to a 23.4 shooting percentage, which would be difficult to sustain, even if he does have history of shooting efficiency (five of his last six seasons at 15.0 percent or higher with a high of 17.8 percent in 2019-2020).  He has been a streaky scorer this season to date.  He posted points in hi first four games (3-6-9), including a three-point and a four-point game.  He followed that with a four-game streak without a point, but he then rolled on a six-game points streak (8-8-16), including a pair of four-point games and a three-point game before being shutout in his last game against Carolina.  If there is a plus for the Caps here, it is that his home-road scoring split is heavily weighted to home scoring (9-11-20 in seven home games and 2-3-5 in eight road games).  Rantanen is 6-6-12, minus-3, in nine career games against Washington.

It is not surprising that Nathan MacKinnon is a member of the double-digit scoring trio over the last six games for Colorado.  Where Rantanen has been the goal scorer, MacKinnon has been the set up man with 11 assists among the 12 points in his last six games.  MacKinnon was the prize of a loaded 2013 Entry Draft, the first player taken overall.  He had “future hall of famer” written in his journal from the moment he was selected by the Avalanche, but it took a while for him to start fulfilling his vast promise and be included in any discussion of best players in the game. He posted 24 goals and 63 points as an 18-year old rookie in 2013-2014, good enough for him to make the first team of the league’s all-rookie team and to win the Calder Trophy as the league’s outstanding rookie.   

But MacKinnon didn’t match either his rookie goal or point total in any of the following three seasons.  But in 2017-2018 he exploded for 39 goals and 97 points and followed that up with consecutive 35-plus goal/90-plus point seasons, the only player to pull off that double in all three of those seasons.  Since that 2017-2018 season through 15 games this season, MacKinnon has 171 goals (seventh among all skaters over that span), 295 assists (third), and 466 points (third).  His plus-97 rating is tied for sixth through Thursday night’s games.  He has only four goals in 15 games so far this season, but his 20 assists lead the league.  It seems as if he is due to break out in goal scoring, his four goals on 74 shots (5.4 percent) being very un-MacKinnon like.  Caps fans it does not happen on Saturday.  MacKinnon is 6-12-18, minus-1, in 15 career games against the Caps.

Cale Makar is the third member of the double-digit points trio.  Where Rantanen has been the goal scorer, and MacKinnon has been the playmaker, Makar has been Makar.  Three goals, most among Colorado defensemen over the six-game run, seven assists, leading all defensemen, and a plus-8 rating, tied with fellow defenseman Devon Toews for the team lead. In only his fourth NHL season and just having turned 24 years old in late October, he is arguably the top offensive defenseman in the game.  His 193 goals over his four NHL seasons lead all defenseman over that span, his 147 assists rank sixth, and his 198 points rank third.  He is the only defenseman to have played in more than five games over the last four years to average more than a point per game (1.04), his 18 power play goals are tied for first, and his 85 power play points rank second among all league defenseman over the four-year period.  Add a league-leading 14 game-winning goals over that span, and a 10.5 shooting percentage (one of two defensemen playing in at least 50 games to top 10 percent), and it is a solid case to make for Makar as the top offensive defenseman in the league.  He already has points in 11 of 15 games overall this season, and the Avs are 8-2-1 in those games.  Six of those games are multi-point games.  In four career games against the Caps, Makar is 0-2-2, minus-4.

1.  The 5-1-0 record that Colorado brings to town since November 4th is the second-best record in the league over that span, trailing only that of the New Jersey Devils (6-0-0, part of an 11-game winning streak on which the Devils find themselves).

2.  Although the Avs have that second-best scoring offense in the league over their last six games, their scoring seems a bit unbalanced.  Colorado had 24 skaters appear over those six games, but ten have goals, and 14 have points, which seems a bit light.

3.  Colorado has a 33.3 percent power play over their last six games, which is actually less efficient than their overall league leading 36.7 percent power play for the season to date.

4.  The Avalanche have three wins over their last six games settled by three or more goals, the most three-plus goal wins over that span.

5.  In five of their six games in the 5-1-0 run, Colorado scored first in five of them, winning four times.

1.  The Gimmick loss to St. Louis on Thursday night broke a streak of three three-goal losses for the Caps in their last three defeats (4-1 to Pittsburgh, 6-3 to Tampa Bay, and 5-2 to Florida).

2.  The Caps went to extra time for the third time this season on Thursday night in St. Louis.  They have lost all three times, twice in the Gimmick.

3.  The loss to the Blues was the sixth time in 19 games that the Caps scored four or more goals and the first time they lost in such games.

4.  Washington returns home having lost their last five games on the road (0-3-2).  They have won two of their last three contests on home ice, scoring five goals in each of the two wins.

5.  The Caps have allowed three or more goals in seven of nine home games this season and only one goal in the other two.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Colorado: Alexandar Georgiev

When Darcy Kuemper left the Avalanche in free agency following their Stanley Cup win last season and replaced him with free agent Alexandar Georgiev (three years/$10.2 million) , some might have viewed the exchange as a down grade and a harbinger of a platoon system with Pavel Francouz.  So far, Georgiev has been lights out (quite literally, if one is speaking of red goal lights).  In ten appearances, Georgiev is 7-2-1, 2.70, .924.  Those goals against average and save percentage numbers are the best of his six-year career to date. 

Not only has Georgiev been effective in goal for his new club to date, he has been so in the face of heavy shot volumes.  He has faced 35.3 shots per game to date, seven times topping 35 shots faced and twice facing over 40 shots in a game.  His even strength save percentage (.942) ranks fifth among 62 goalies appearing in at least five games.

Georgiev’s home/road split for the season will not give comfort to Caps fans hoping to start their three-game home stand on a positive note.  In five home games he is 3-1-1, 3.01, .905.  However, in five road games, Georgiev is 4-1-0, 2.38, .938.  In four of those five games he posted save percentages of .920 or better, three times over .940.  He faced 35 or more shots on goal in four of those five road games, including a season-high 46 shots in a 3-2 win in New York over the Rangers on October25th.  Georgiev is 2-5-1, 3.62, .882 in eight career appearances against the Caps.

Washington: Darcy Kuemper

Charlie Lindgren got his chance to face a former team on Thursday night when he took the ice in goal against the St. Louis Blues.  Now, Darcy Kuemper seems likely to get his chance to face his old Colorado squad on Saturday night.  Kuemper has appeared in 14 games to date for the Caps, and his season so far seems to divide into two seven-game pieces.  In the first he went 4-3-0, 2.47, .919, capping the seven-game segment with a 3-0 shutout of the Nashville Predators on October 29th.  In seven games since, Kuemper is 1-5-1, 3.02, .902, and he suffered his first instance of being pulled from a contest, lasting 16 minutes and change against the Tampa Bay Lightning, giving up four goals on nine shots in a 6-3 loss on November 13th.

In those first seven games, Kuemper’s even strength save percentage of .932 ranked 13th among 54 goalies to appear in three or more games to that point.  In his last seven games since October 30th, his even strength save percentage of .908 ranks 30th among 53 goalies to appear in three or more games over that span.  His overall home/road split is not all that confidence inspiring going into Saturday’s game.  While he has an unfortunate win-loss record on the road (1-5-1 in seven games), he does have a save percentage of .921, which ranks 14th among 55 goalies to appear in at least three road games.  At home, Kuemper is 4-3-0, but his .899 save percentage ranks 28th of 46 goalies to appear in at least three home games.  He has allowed three of more goals in five of the seven appearances he made at Capital One Arena so far this season.  Kuemper is 4-1-2, 1.90, .928, with three shutouts in nine career meetings against Colorado.

In the end…

The Caps recent history of injuries is well-known to Caps fans.  But it is not as if the Avalanche haven’t felt some pain.  Gabriel Landeskog (knee) and Valeri Nichushkin (ankle) are and will be out for extended periods.  Landeskog has yet to play this season, and Nichushkin was on a blazing start through seven games (7-5-12, plus-1) before he went down.  But the champs are the champs for a reason; they are deep.  Deep in ways the Caps are not so that on paper, the Avs are still the better team.  But the Caps are not without weapons, and they are a veteran team hungry to end their recent slump.  It could make for an interesting back-and-forth contest.

Capitals 5 – Avalanche 3

 

Wednesday, November 16, 2022

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 19: Capitals at Blues, November 17

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals conclude their three-game road trip on Thursday night when they visit the St. Louis Blues at Enterprise Center in St. Louis.  The Caps will be looking to end their two-game losing streak and a 2-5-2 skid over their last nine games over which they find themselves increasingly unable to stop other teams from scoring, but we will get to that.

The Blues are a happier bunch these days, going into a contest with the Chicago Blackhawks on Wednesday night on a three-game winning streak after suffering an eight-game losing streak, all of the losses in regulation.  It is not hard to see what changed.  Over their eight-game losing streak they averaged only 1.50 goals per game, were held to two or fewer seven times (and they lost the only game they scored more than two goals), and were shut out once.  Over their last three games, though, they scored 11 goals while holding opponents to seven.

Jordan Kyrou has two goals in those three wins for the Blues, perhaps a sign that the slow start he had to this season (3-1-4, minus-17, and no, that is not a misprint… minus-17) is behind him.  It would be fair to say that much was – is – expected of Kyrou based on his NHL progress to date.  A second round pick for the Blues (35th overall) in the 2016 Entry Draft, he made the jump to the NHL in 2018-2019, appearing in 16 games with a 1-2-3, minus-1, scoring line.  In his sophomore season he played in 28 games, going 4-5-9, plus-1.  Kyrou made a big leap in 2020-2021 with 14 goals (including his first two career game-winners) and 35 points in 55 games.  Last year was another big leap in production for Kyrou, a 27-48-75, plus-10, season in 74 games.  The odd part of his season overall is that the Blues are 2-8-0 when Kyrou skated 17:50 or more in ice time, but they won all for games in which he skated less than 17:50.  Kyrou is 0-2-2, plus-2, in three career games against Washington.

Robert Thomas and Pavel Buchnevich are tied for the team lead in points over the Blues’ three game winning streak with four apiece.  Thomas (1-3-4, plus-1 in the last three games) has had an eventful career to date for one so young, and not all in a good way.  Thomas was taken in the first round of the 2017 Entry Draft (20th overall) after going 16-50-66, plus-41, in 66 games for the London Knights in the Ontario Hockey League.  He split the 2017-2018 season between London (20-26-46, plus-13, in 27 games) and the Hamilton Bulldogs of the OHL 94-25-29, plus-4, in 22 games).  He made the jump to the NHL in the 2018-2019 season, going 9-24-33, minus-2, in 70 games for the Blues.

But it was then that the injury bug would bite.  He missed seven games with a shoulder injury, then missed four playoff games with a wrist injury. He barely got out of the gate for the 2019-2020 season when he missed five games with an upper body injury.  In the 2020-2021 season he missed 18 games to a broken thumb,and then he missed four more with a shoulder injury late in the regular season.  Last season, Thomas lost seven games to a lower body injury, two games to illness, and another game to an upper body injury.  None of this string of injuries that limited Thomas to 241 games over four seasons kept the Blues from offering, or Thomas from signing, an eight-year/$65.0 million contract last July that will go into effect for the 2023-2024 season.  It is a risk, but a calculated one for the Blues, seeing his 42 goals and 164 points in those 241 games as indicators of promise as a reliable scorer, provided he is healthy.  This season, his performance and that of the team closely parallel one another.  In the Blues’ 3-0-0 start, Thomas was 0-4-4, plus-5.  In the eight-game losing streak, he was 2-1-3, minus-12.  But in the Blues’ current three-game winning streak going into Wednesday night’s action, he is 1-3-4, plus-4.  In three career games against the Caps, Thomas is 1-2-3, plus-2.

The Merriam-Webster Dictionary defines “flash in the pan” as “one that appears promising but turns out to be disappointing or worthless.”  It would be harsh to consider goaltender Jordan Binnington as worthless, but disappointing?  It might be a fair characterization.  Binnington was the sixth goalie taken in the 2011 Entry Draft, a draft that does not seem to have a very impressive goalie class.  He worked his way up the development ladder and finally broke through with a single NHL appearance in the 2015-2016 season (13 minutes, three saves on four shots faced, a no decision).  But then came the 2018-2019 season.  Binnington exploded on the scene – 32 appearances, 24-5-1, 1.89 (best GAA in the league), .927, five shutouts.  He was the first team goalie on the All-Rookie Team, finished second in Calder Trophy voting as top rookie, finished tenth in Hart Trophy voting for MVP, and finished fifth in Vezina Trophy voting for top goaltender.  But he saved the best for the postseason; he was 16-10, 2.46, .914, with one shutout, backstopping the Blues to the Stanley Cup.

But then he had a bizarre sophomore season.  The regular season was impressive – 30-13-7, 2.56, .912, with three shutouts. It was good enough to finish seventh in Vezina Trophy voting.  And when he finished the regular season on a 6-2-0, 1.75, .931, two shutout record in his last eight games, he looked to be in position to lead the Blues deep into another postseason.  But after a 36-save effort in a 2-1 loss to Colorado in the round robin prelude to the 2020 postseason, the bottom dropped out of his game.  He made four more appearances, losing all of them, and stopping just 84 of 103 shots, a ghastly .816 save percentage.  He really has not been the same since.  In two seasons following that 2020 postseason debacle, he is 36-28-12, 2.87, .906, with two shutouts.  He has not shaken out of that fog this season – 6-5-0, 3.07, .904, with one shutout – 35th in goals against average (of 57 goalies with at least 250 minutes), 33rd in save percentage.  However, he has won his last three decisions, stopping 106 of 113 shots along the way (.938).  Binnington is 0-0-1, 2.86, .912 in his only appearance against the Caps to date, a 3-2 overtime loss to the Caps on October 2, 2019.

1.  The Blues have allowed 4.17 goals per game at home, the 30th ranked scoring defense on home ice this season.

2.  Beware the St. Louis power play on home ice, it is the sixth-ranked power play in the league at home (29.4 percent).

3.  On the other side of special teams, the 66.7 percent penalty kill is the third-worst in the league on home ice, but no team has deployed it less frequently at home than the 2.00 shorthanded situations faced by the Blues per home game.

4.  First periods in St. Louis have not had much in terms of goal scoring action – four goals for the Blues and four by opponents in six home games.

5.  Over his first 11 games this season, Jordan Kyrou did not have a “plus” rating in any of them.  He was as high as “even” only twice, going minus-17 in the other nine games.  However, he is even in his last three games overall.

1.  Over their 2-5-2 slide, the Caps have seen there scoring defense deteriorate.  Over the first four games of the slump, the Caps held opponents to three goals three times and two goals once, but they lost all four games (0-2-2).  They beat Edmonton to end that skid, but they allowed four goals in doing so in a 5-4 win.  Starting with that game, the Caps have allowed 20 goals in four games, four or more four times (they beat Tampa Bay, 5-1, in that 2-3-0 run).

2. We mentioned the 2017 Entry Draft in the context of the development of Blues forward Robert Thomas.  But the 2017 draft was noteworthy for the Caps as well.  It was a disaster.  It is the oldest draft class for which no player has dressed for an NHL game. Granted, the Caps had only four picks and none until the fourth round (120th overall). The Caps’ first round pick was traded with Zach Sanford, Brad Malone, a conditional seventh-round pick in 2017 or 2018, a conditional second-round pick in 2019 to St. Louis for Kevin Shattenkirk and Pheonix Copley.  The second round pick went to Montreal as part of the trade in June 2016 that brought Lars Eller to Washington in exchange for a second-round pick in 2018 and this second rounder.  The third rounder was sent to Buffalo in February 2016 for defenseman Mike Weber.

3.  The Caps have been creamed in third periods in road games, getting outscored, 14-6, in nine away contests.

4.  Washington has taken a lead in a road game to the first intermission only twice in nine road games.  Only Chicago and Detroit have led fewer times after 20 minutes (once apiece).  The Caps lost both games and are one of five teams without a win when leading after one period.

5.  From the symmetry file, the Caps took a lead into the third period of their nine road games only twice as well.  They won both of those contests.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

St. Louis: Ryan O’Reilly

A walk-year for a player – that last season of a contract with the possibility of a big free agency payoff looming – can bring out the best or the worst in a player.  The jury is deliberating the case of the Blues’ Ryan O’Reilly.  The 31-year old is in his 14th NHL season, O’Reilly is off to a slow start with three goals and five points with a minus-12 rating in 14 games.  His production on home ice has been especially disappointing – 1-0-1, minus-6, in six home games through Tuesday.  And now, trade rumors are swirling. 

What is confounding, and perhaps merely a slump, is his assist total. In 13 seasons leading into this one, O’Reilly finished with fewer than 30 assists only three times (all with Colorado) – 18 in 81 games in his rookie 2009-2010 season, 13 in 74 games in his sophomore 2010-2011 season, and 14 in 29 games in 2012-2013.  So far this season he has only two assists in 14 games, none in six games on home ice.  He has yet to post a power play assist, even though he does average 2:01 in power play ice time per game.  O’Reilly might be emerging from his early season slump.  He is 2-2-4, even, in his last four games going into Wednesday’s action, although his ice time is down about a minute per game (17:31 in those four games) from that of his first ten games (18:28 per game).  O’Reilly is 1-13-14, plus-3, in 21 career games against Washington.

Washington: Connor McMichael

If Rod Serling was alive today, he would be hunched over his typewriter clicking away on his typewriter keyboard (hey kids, remember typewriters?) penning a screenplay for “The Twilight Zone.”  The episode might have the working title, “The Connor Conundrum.”  It is the story of a hockey player who was a high draft pick, but who rarely plays; a player who has consistency issues (especially on defense), but whose numbers are not as bad as his perceived shortcomings would suggest; a player thought of as a core element of the future Capitals, but a player who might not be a Capital when the inevitable rebuild takes place a few seasons from now.

Caps fans might be forgiven for thinking that McMichael has been a part of this organization for years and years, but the fact is that he was drafted by the Caps 25th overall in the 2019 Entry Draft, just three years and change ago.  Although he has had difficulty breaking into the lineup on a regular basis, he will turn just 22 years old on January 15th.  By that time, he could pass former Caps Brooks Laich, Richard Zednik, and Jason Allison in games played by their 22nd birthdays (McMichael has 74; Laich and Zednik had 77, Allison had 86).  He has already passed Laich and Allison in goals scored before age 22, having scored nine career goals thus far to Laich’s and Allison’s seven apiece.  The Caps are 39-24-11 in games in which McMichael has played to date, a respectable 99-stnadings point rate over 82 games.  If he has been a liability, it has not been an influencing element in team results to a serious degree.

Which is not to say there haven’t been of are not problems that need attention.  Despite not getting scoring line minutes to a large degree, McMichael’s strength would appear to be less as a high-end scorer and more as an all-around player who plays with skill and consistency in all three zones.  However, he is a minus-3 in career goal differential at even strength.  For a successful Caps team, a McMichael who gets consistent middle-six forward playing time is going to have to turn that minus into a plus.  McMichael has also held his own in the turnover area, although takeaways and giveaways are recorded with some level of ambiguity and arbitrariness.  He has 16 career takeaways (13th among Caps forwards over his three seasons) and 10 giveaways.  His positive takeaway-to-giveaway ration holds its own over that period with veteran Caps forwards such as Conor Sheary (75/29), Nic Dowd (74/35), Nicklas Backstrom (58/37), T.J. Oshie (54/48), and Garnet Hathaway (39/33).

The point is that Connor McMichael occupies his own corner of hockey’s Twilight Zone, and his search for an exit is one of the continuing subplots of Capitals hockey.  He is without a point and has a minus-1 rating in one appearance against the Blues.

In the end…

The Caps will be catching the Blues in a vulnerable position on Thursday night.  Even though they seem to have righted themselves, St. Louis will go into the game fresh off a three-game road trip, playing the second of a back-to-back set of games, and skating in their third game in four nights.  Those are usually the hallmarks of a team that an opponent can wear down, even in their own rink.  But the Caps have had their own issues since Halllowe’en and are looking for a win by any means possible.

Capitals 4 – Blues 3