The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 46: Capitals at Islanders, January 15th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up a four-game run against Metropolitan Division teams on Monday night when they visit UBS Arena to take on the New York Islanders.  The Caps will be looking to fight off a losing “streak” of two games in regulation, the first time they lost consecutive games in regulation since losing Games 17 and 18 back on November 13^th and 15^th to the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers, respectively.

The Islanders come into this contest dealing with struggles of their own.  A 2-1 win over the Montreal Canadiens stopped a four game losing streak, but the Isles remain a club that has had trouble scoring.  Over their last eight games, they have a total of 16 goals, but six of those came in a 6-2 win ovr Vancouver to open the 2023 portion of their schedule.  In none of the other seven games did they score more than two goals.  Even with that six-goal explosion, the Islanders have the worst scoring offense in the league (2.00 goals per game) over those eight games.

Mathew Barzal has four of the 16 goals scored by the Islanders to lead the team over those last eight games, bringing his total for the season to 11 goals in 43 games.  It has not been the easiest of seasons for the seven-year veteran.  Barzal signed an eight-year, $73.2 million contract extension with the Islanders on October 4^th, and the pressure that comes with such a signing seemed to weigh on him early.  He did not record a goal in his first 18 games, going 0-for-47 shooting, although he did have 19 assists.

Barzal broke the drought with a pair of goals in a 5-2 loss to the Dallas Stars on November 19^th, and since then has 11 goals on 57 shots (19.3 percent shooting).  But back to those two goals in a loss to Dallas.  It is odd that while Barzal has goals in nine games starting with that two-goal contest, the Islanders are just 3-6-0 in those nine games.  They are 16-12-0 in the 28 games in which he recorded a point this season.  Ice time has not been kind to him or to the Islanders this season, either.  In the 23 games in which he skated at least 18:45, New York is just 5-15-3, while they are 18-2-0 in those games in which he skated less than 18:45.  And his shooting, or absence of it, has an odd relationship to outcomes.  New York is 8-3-1 in the 12 games in which he recorded one or no shots on goal.  In 25 career games against Washington, Barzal is 5-16-21, minus-4.

At the other end of the scoring over the last eight games is Brock Nelson.  He has none of the 16 goals scored by the Islanders in that span and only three assists.  Nevertheless, he is still tied for the team lead in goals for the season (15, with Anders Lee).  For a franchise with as long and successful a history as the Islanders, Nelson has quietly moved up the leader board in a number of categories – ninth in team history in games played (720), 11^th in goals (220), 20^th in assists (206), 15th in points (426), 11^th in power play goals (48), tied for second in overtime goals (six), ninth in game-winning goals (36), tenth in first goals scored in games (36), fourth in empty net goals (12), fifth in empty net points (22).

The odd part about Nelson’s scoring this season is how much more productive he has been on the road (10-12-22, even, in 23 games) than at home (5-12-17, plus-2, in 21 games).  All three of his power play goals have come on the road, and his 18.2 shooting percentage on the road dwarfs his 7.0 percentage at home.  He is on an eight-game streak without a goal on home ice going into Monday night’s game, although he does have six assists.  He has been another player for whom ice time and outcomes have a somewhat odd relationship.  In 22 games in which he skated at least 19 minutes, the Islanders are 9-11-2.  Nelson is 12-10-22, minus-5, in 39 career games against Washington.

The Islanders have not made much use of rookie talent this season, the team dressing four rookie skaters for a total of 45 man-games.  Forward Simon Holmstrom has 17 of those games.  He might have had more, but he spent six games on injured reserve in late December after a hit from Florida’s Sam Bennett in a 5-1 win on December 23^rd.  Holmstrom was a 23^rd overall pick of the Islanders in the 2019 entry draft, taken two spots ahead of Connor McMichael by the Caps. 

In 17 games to date, Holmstrom has not had eye-popping scoring numbers (1-1-2, minus-1), and he was not a big scorer in parts of four seasons with the Islanders’ AHL affiliate in Bridgeport (27-43-70, minus-27, in 153 games), but he is seen as a promising playmaking winger who can play responsibly at both ends of the ice.  Of note for this game, Holmstrom is still looking for his first career point on home ice as an Islander. If he gets a sweater, it will be his first career appearance against the Caps.

1.  Brock Nelson is one of 12 players this season to record 10 or more shots in a game, posting ten shots (two goals) in a 4-3 overtime win over Columbus on November 12^th.

2.  The Islanders have struggled to score on home ice this season, their 2.95 goals per game ranking 24^th in the league in home scoring offense.  On the other hand, their scoring defense has been smothering, their 2.19 goals allowed per game at home ranking second in the league.

3.  New York has the best penalty kill on home ice this season (90.7 percent).

4.  In 21 home games so far, the Islanders scored first in only nine of them (tied for seventh-fewest in the league), but they are 8-1-0 in those games, the third-best winning percentage in the league (.889).

5.  New York has the fourth-best winning percentage on home ice in one-goal games this season (.833/5-0-1)  and are one of seven teams yet to lose a one-goal decision in regulation on home ice.

1.  Matt Irwin is the only Capital to appear in more than five road games without recording a point so far this season.

2.  Of 28 skaters to dress for at least one road game for the Caps, 20 of them have at least one goal, and 23 have at least one point.

3.  Of 28 skaters to appear for the Caps his season, six have appeared in all 45 games to date.  Through 45 games last season, only one Capital (Alex Ovechkin) appeared in all 45 games.

4.  Only Vancouver and the Islanders have allowed more shorthanded goals on the road (six and four, respectively) than the Caps (three). Only Minnesota has scored more shorthanded goals on the road (five) than the Caps (four).

5.  Only three teams in the league have more empty net goals scored in road games than the Caps (six) – New Jersey (nine), Pittsburgh (seven), and the Islanders (seven).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Ilya Sorokin

He is third in the league in goals against average among 69 goalies with at least 500 minutes (2.25).  He is second in that group in save percentage (.927).  He is tied for second in shutouts (three).  He is tied for fifth in starts (31).  So why is Ilya Sorokin’ win-loss record just 15-14-2?  Goal support is the easy answer.  The Isles do not provide goalies with a lot of goal support, and they average 2.94 goals per game in his 33 appearances overall.  Twelve times in 31 starts the Islanders scored two or fewer goals when he appeared; twice they were shut out.  He is not exactly playing with much of a margin for error.  But except for an eight-game stretch over which he was 0-6-1 (one no-decision), 2.97, .903, with one shutout, he has been successful on his own terms despite the lack of goal support.

Sorokin might be the “other goaltender” in New York, with the Rangers Igor Shesterkin getting more press attention, but his record of 54-38-13, 2.31, .924, with 13 shutouts over three seasons compares favorably with Shesterkin’s 82-35-13, 2.34, .925, and nine shutouts over four seasons.  And perhaps it was a product of the pecking order of attention the metropolitan New York teams get that when both goalies received Calder Trophy votes in 2021-2022, Shesterkin finished fifth in the voting with a 16-14-3, 2.62, .916 record while Sorokin finished tied for 15^th (with fellow goalie Kaapo Kahkonen) with a 13-6-3, 2.17, .918 record.  This season, while Shesterkin has a 20-6-6 win-loss record to Sorokin’s 15-14-2, Sorokin has an edge in goals against average (2.25 to 2.44), save percentage (.927 to .917) and has three shutouts to one for Shesterkin.  For the moment, Ilya Sorokin seems to be the “stealth” goalie in the NHL, a top-end performer who gets little attention.  In three appearances against Washington, Sorokin is 1-2-0, 2.70, .917.

Washington: Martin Fehervary

After 45 games last season, rookie defenseman Martin Fehervary dressed for 42 games (he missed three games to COVID protocol) and posted a scoring line of 3-3-6, plus-15, averaging, 19:24 in ice time per game.  He averaged 8.31 hits per 60 minutes, showing a physical dimension to his game, but doing so within the rules (he had only six penalties in that number of games).

Through 45 games on the Caps’ schedule this season, Fehervary has dressed for only 33 games, missing time with an upper body injury.  His offensive output is higher on a per-game basis (3-4-7), and his ice time per game (19:40) is virtually unchanged from last year at the same point of the season.  His on-ice goal differential of plus-13 in 42 games at this point last season was better than his differential so far this season with 33 of 45 games played (plus-4), his on-ice goals for to goals against share at even strength (60.354.2 percent) last season better than this season (54.2 percent) but that share this season is still fifth among all Caps defensemen, a respectable ranking for a player who is third among defensemen in even strength ice time per game. 

This season, Fehervary has been a more productive offensive player on the road (3-1-4, plus-4, in 16 road games, 0-3-3, even, in 17 home games), more disciplined (four penalty minutes on the road, ten at home), more engaged offensively (27 shots on goal on the road versus 18 at home).  He comes into this game 3-1-4, plus-4, in his last four road games.  In six career games against the Islanders, Fehervary is 0-1-1, minus-3.

In the end…

The Metropolitan Division is tightening up, and the Caps have not been as successful in their recent games against division opponents than they might have liked, to put some distance between themselves and teams knocking at the door of playoff eligibility.  That is what makes this game important.  A three-game losing streak in the division would not crash the season, but it would be a matter of concern.  That the Caps will have to turn things around against a team that can make opponents miserable trying to move freely about the ice makes things just that much harder.

Capitals 3 – Islanders 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Games 44 and 45: Capitals at Flyers, January 11th/Flyers at Capitals, January 14

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals have not had a lot of games against Metropolitan Division – only nine games out of 43 games played to date (6-2-1) – but the Caps return to division wars this week and wrap up a season series in the process when they play the Philadelphia Flyers in a home-and-home set of games Wednesday in Philadelphia and Saturday in Washington.

The Caps have the league’s best record since November 23^rd at 16-4-3 and are one of only two teams to be top-five in both scoring offense (3.70 goals per game/fourth) and scoring defense (2.22 goals allowed per game/second), Toronto being the other. 

On the other side, the Flyers are 9-10-3 over the same period, tied for 22^nd in the league in points over that span.  But Philadelphia is showing signs of being better lately.  After struggling in the run-up to the Christmas break with a 2-5-2 record, the Flyers are 5-1-0 since Christmas.  Only once in those six games did they score fewer than five goals, and only twice did they allow more than two. 

Center Travis Koniecny has set the pace in scoring for the Flyers in their recent run.  Over the last six games he is 6-5-11, plus-7. His six goals are tied for fifth in the league over that stretch, while his 11 points are tied with Kevin Fiala for most in the league.  Perhaps Konecny is finally settling in to being the top-notch scorer the Flyers might have envisioned when they took him as the 24^th overall pick in the 2015 Entry Draft.  It has not been that Knoecny has been a poor performer; in fact, he has been consistent.  After posting 11 goals in 70 games as a rookie in 2016-2017, he recorded three consecutive 24-goal seasons.  However, his production dipped to 27 goals in 129 games over the next two seasons coming into the 2022-2023 campaign. 

But Konecny came out of the starting gate hot this season and has not let up.  Not even missing six games to an upper-body injury in late November has been able to slow him down.  Only once in 35 games played has he gone consecutive games without a point, and he has at least one point in 28 of those 35 games.  He also has goals in 18 of those 35 games, over which the Flyers are 10-6-2.  The question regarding his scoring is whether his 18.9 shooting percentage to date (16^th among 353 skaters with at least 50 shots on goal) is sustainable.  While he had a respectable 12.1 percent shooting mark over five seasons entering this one, a correction might be in order.  In 28 career games against the Caps, Konecny is 6-5-11, minus-7.

Is in his second tour with the Flyers.  In June 2019, he was traded to the Flyers by the San Jose Sharks for a second-round draft pick in 2019 and a third-round draft pick in 2020.  He was traded to the New York Rangers in March 2022 for 1 2023 third-round draft pick, but he returned to the Flyer fold when he signed a one-year/$1.0 million contract as a free agent last July.  Braun has never been much of an offensive defenseman.  In 791 games over 12 seasons for three teams coming into this season, he had 34 goals and 197 points.  If one thing sticks out among the “numbers” about Braun, it is that he is, by far, the oldest of the eight defensemen to dress for the Flyers this season (he will be 36 in February), more than six years older than Nick Seeler.

Given his profile, one would expect that Braun would be the veteran anchor of a defensive squad where half the members are age 26 or younger.  But he has played in only 33 of 41 games this season, only one since December 22^nd.  The problem lies in part with the fact that the Flyers just have not done well with Braun in the lineup, going 12-14-7 in the 33 games in which he dressed (4-4-0 in games in which he was absent).  It has not helped his or the Flyers’ cause that through 33 games played he is still looking for his first point of the season. He is on a 37-game streak without a point dating back to last season.  In 29 career games against the Caps, Braun in 0-7-7, plus-6.

If there has been a surprise this season for the Flyers, it might be rookie winger Noah Cates.  The first surprise is that Cates – a fifth round (117^th overall) pick of the 2017 Entry Draft and the seventh player drafted by the Flyers in that draft – has appeared in every game to date.  No rookie through Monday’s games has appeared in more games.  There is also the fact that Cates is tied for eighth in points by a rookie in the league to date (17) and is tied for eighth in plus-minus rating (plus-4).  Only Seattle’s Matty Beniers has more game-wining goals (three) than Cates (two, tied with six other rookies), and he leads all rookie forwards in ice time per game (17:45).

We are approaching the time of the season when some rookies who carry a significant workload hit a wall. That has not yet happened with Cates, who is 2-6-8, plus-3, over his last 11 games.  His contributions are consistent with the results of a secondary-scoring player.  He has goals in five games to date, and the Flyers are 4-0-1 in those contests; the Flyers are 7-4-1 in the 12 games in which he has points.  In the ten games in which he logged at least 19 minutes, the Flyers are 5-1-4.  With respect to his ice times, there are those occasions in which a rookie might slump and give the head coach cause to sit him or reduce his minutes.  The former has not happened, and as to the latter, Cates has not skated less than 14:43 in any game this season, only about three minutes under his average this season.  Cates is 0-0-0, minus-3, in three career games against the Caps.

1.  Philadelphia’s net power play on home ice (accounting for shorthanded goals scored by opponents) is the fourth-worst on home ice in the league (12.1 percent). It is slight better, efficiency-wise, on the road at 12.7 percent, but it ranks 31^st in the league.

2.  Only Montreal has scored first in fewer games on home ice (three) than the Flyers (five), who are just 2-3-0 in the limited instances they did so (.400 winning percentage/31^st in the league).  They are also frustrated in this area on the road – 3-3-2/.375 (29^th in winning percentage).

3.  If the Flyers can get a lead after 40 minutes on home ice, they will like their chances.  They are 7-0-0 on home ice when leading after two periods.  Even on the road they have been successful, just not frequent in getting those 40-minute leads (4-0-1 in 22 road games).

4.  The Flyers have been digging early holes on home ice.  They have a minus-8 goal differential in first periods on home ice, fifth-worst in the league.  That is worse than their goal-differential in first periods on the road (minus-2).

5.  No team has more losses by three or more goals on home ice than the Flyes (nine in 19 home games).

1.  Washington has not been an especially prolific scoring team on home ice, their 3.32 goals per game ranking 14^th in the league in home scoring offense.  They have averaged fewer goals per game on the road (3.11) but rank 11^th in road scoring offense.

2.  The Caps have been very good at home holding down opponents’ scoring, the 2.59 goals allowed per game at home ranking sixth in the league in scoring defense.  They have been almost as good on the road, the 2.81 goals allowed per game ranking eighth in road scoring defense.

3.  Only 28 first period goals have been scored by the Caps and opponents in 22 games at Capital One Arena this season, split evenly at 14 apiece. The Caps have a minus-4 goal differential in first period goals in 21 road games (15 for, 19 against).

4.  Only Pittsburgh has allowed more overtime goals on home ice (four) than the Caps (three, tied with three other teams).

5.  The Caps are on of three teams that have trailed first at least ten times on home ice with a winning percentage of at least .500 (5-4-1/.500).  Winnipeg and Toronto are the others.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Philadelphia: Samuel Ersson

It was supposed to be Carter Hart’s net.  And for the most part this season, it has been.  Hart has taken 28 of the 41 starts by Flyer goaltenders to date.  But his 11-12-6, 2.97, .908, is not what the team might be expecting, even for a club that is still struggling to achieve competitive status with other playoff contenders.  Perhaps a victim of circumstance (the Dlyers’ overall struggles) or his own shortcomings, he has not been the answer many thought he could be when he burst upon the scene with a rookie season good enough for him to finish ninth in Calder Trophy voting and a sophomore season that was an improvement over his rookie year (24-13-3, 2.42, .914, one shutout).  Over his next two seasons he was 22-35-12, 3.34, .895, with two shutouts. 

But Hart was injured in a December 23^rd game against Carolina, leaving the net to Felix Sandstrom, or it would have but for Sandstrom missing time to illness.  It is in that context that Samuel Ersson is an intriguing character.  Ersson was called up from the Lehigh Valley Phantoms of the AHL on December 21^st to fill in for Sanderson and was pressed into duty when Hart was injured.  He completed that game Hart started against Carolina and allowed five goals on 30 shots in 47 minutes in a 6-5 loss (he did not earn the decision).  But since then, Ersson has been impressive, allowing three goals on 28 shots to San Jose, two in 25 shots against Los Angeles, one on 29 shots against Anaheim, and most recently a 28-save shutout in a 4-0 win against Buffalo – all wins, and all on the road. In his short time with the big club, he is 4-0-0, 2.30, .924, that save percentage tops among all rookie goalies playing at least 100 minutes.  It was not as if any of this was expected.  With the Phantoms, Ersson was 9-8-1, 2.72, .910, his goals against average ranking 25^th among qualifying goalies and his save percentage ranking 19^th.  One might say that the Flyers have credible alternatives to the goaltending position, but it looks from a distance like one that remains – as it seems to have been for decades – in flux.  Ersson has never faced the Caps.

Washington: T.J. Oshie

T.J. Oshie is not the offensive producer he has been in the past.  At his current rate of point production, he will finish 2022-2023 with the only season of his 15-year career not averaging more than half a point per game (he has 13 points in 26 games/0.50 points per game).  He will finish the season with his second consecutive year with less than 0.30 goals per game, something he has not done since 2013-2014 and 2014-2015, his final two seasons with the St Louis Blues.  His 12.5 shooting percentage is his lowest since 2014-2015, his last year with the Blues, when he shot 11.7 percent.  His 16:42 in ice time per game is his lowest since his rookie year in 2008-2009 (16:35 per game).  And while neither a center nor a player with a heavy faceoff load, he does take a lot of draws for a winger, yet his 37.7 winning percentage is the worst of his career.

And yet, the Caps win when he is on the ice.  In 26 games this season in which he played, the Caps are 16-8-2; they are 7-6-4 in the 17 games he missed.  It is not as if this an unusual or isolated phenomenon.  Since coming to the Caps in July 2015, the Caps are 299-132-52 in games in which he dressed (a 110-point pace per 82 games) and 98-58-21 (a 101-point pace per 82 games) in games he missed.  The consistency of the relationship between his being on ice and Caps success looks like a reflection of the limitation of numbers – top line or more sophisticated statistics – to capture his impact on outcomes.  Oshie’s absences this season, twice missing time to what appeared to be non-contact injuries, have denied him much of an opportunity to establish and scoring momentum.  In 26 games he has three streaks of three or more games without a point, and he does not have an assist on his resume since November 25^th, a streak of 15 games and counting.  What has been particularly curious about his season to date is an inability to score at home.  He has two goals on 30 shots (6.7 percent) in 12 games on home ice so far this season, even though he is averaging about a minute more in home ice time per game (17:11) than on the road (16:17).  Oshie is 12-12-24, plus-1, in 39 career games against Philadelphia.

In the end…

With as little game action as the Caps will have this week, it is an opportunity to get some practice in and put those lessons to work to play with structure and focus.  The Flyers are a feisty and familiar enough foe to get and hold the Caps’ attention, so taking the opponent for granted should – that is “should” – not be an issue.  It will be difficult to gain much, if any ground in the standings with just the two games against the Flyers on the slate, but that makes these two games important to maintain and solidify their place in the playoff mix.

Wednesday: Capitals 4 – Flyers 2

Saturday: Capitals 5 – Flyers 2

 

 

Just a Reminder...

 For 20 games, the Caps were not very good.  And then, they were...

So, Caps fans...if there are any among you inclined to pick nits, complain about this, or whine about that...you need to rethink your choices.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 38: Senators at Capitals, December 29

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return from New York and their 4-0 win over the Rangers on Tuesday night to start a three-game home stand on Thursday night against the Ottawa Senators at Capital One Arena.  The Caps are on a five-game winning streak, their second five-game winning streak this month, and their 13-3-1 since November 23^rd is the second best record in the league over that span. 

Ottawa has been the epitome of a streaky team.  Starting with a 5-1 loss to the New Jersey Devils on November 19^th, the Senators have gone 18 games over which they have had either consecutive wins or consecutive losses, save for an odd 3-1 loss to the New York Rangers on November 30^th that was sandwiched between two two-game winning streaks, and a 3-2 Gimmick win over the Boston Bruins in their last contest that followed a three-game losing streak (0-2-1).

The Senators are 9-7-2 over those 18 games, leaving them mired in seventh place in the Atlantic Division and ten points out of a playoff spot.  Over those 18 games the Senators have struggled to score, their 2.1 goals per game ranking 26^th in the league in scoring offense over that span.

Drake Batherson has seven of the 47 goals scored by the Senators in this stretch to lead the team, bringing his season total to 12 goals in 34 games.  For the fifth-year right winger, this could be a break out season.  Following a pair of 17-goal seasons with abbreviated schedules (one to COVID, the other to an ankle injury for which he missed 28 games), he is on a pace to finish with 29 goals this season.  And, depending on what Claude Giroux (14 goals) and Brady Tkachuk (13 goals) do over the rest of the regular season, he could be only the third 30-goal scorer for Ottawa since 2011-2012 (Tkachuk and Josh Norris did it last season), when Milan Michalek (35 goals) and Jason Spezza (34 goals) did it for Ottawa.

Another number that would (and as the moment does) represent a career best (or worst) is his minus-23 rating.  That is the second-worst among 817 skaters to play this season and is a minus-55 pace over a full season.  Only ten skaters have been on ice for more even strength goals scored against the Senators than Batherson (39 goals against).  Unsurprisingly, the Senators are 3-14-0 in the 17 games in which he posted a negative rating (1-4-0 in the five games in which he posted goals).  Only three times in 34 games did he have a positive rating and none since November 10^th when he was plus-1 in a 4-3 overtime loss to New Jersey.  What he brings to this game is that he scored goals in each of the first two meetings of these teams this year – a pair of power play goals less than two minutes apart in a 5-2 loss to the Caps on October 20^th and a goal in a 3-2 overtime loss to the Caps on December 22^nd.  In six career games against the Caps, Batherson is 6-1-7, plus-2.

Nick Holden has been around.  The 12-year veteran has played in 618 games for six different franchises.  And now, in his second season with the Ottawa Senators, he finds himself as the oldest player to skate for the team this season (he will turn 36 in May).  Holden has been a defenseman who managed to carve out a long career without the advantage of being much of an offensive contributor. Since he came into the league in 2010-2011 with the Columbus Blue Jackets, he is one of a dozen defensemen to have logged more than 600 games while posting fewer than 50 goals and fewer than 120 assists. 

This has been a rather typical season for Holden (1-5-6, minus-7, in 29 games).  But he has done well, or more accurately, the team has when he had heavier ice time loads.  In ten games in which he skated 17:30 or more to date, Ottawa is 6-4-0, while they are 7-9-3 in the 19 games he skated less.  He is not an especially physical defender, but in 13 games in which he was credited with two or more hits, Ottawa is 8-3-0.  The Sens are 6-3-2 when he had two or more blocked shots.  His numbers might not show up in the post-game credits, but if he is posting decent totals in underlying numbers, in the grittier, less-rewarded elements of the game, it might be the difference between winning and losing for the Senators.  Holden is 2-2-4, minus-4, in 19 career games against Washington.

Ottawa has dressed three rookies this season for more than 30 games apiece.  Only Montreal has done so with as many.  Centers Shane Pinto (34) and Mark Kastelic (31), and defenseman Jake Sanderson (34) make up the trio.  Pinto leads the group in goals scored (ten, tied for second among all rookies) and points (16, tied for sixth among all rookies).  A second-round (32^nd overall) pick in the 2019 Entry Draft, Pinto spent two seasons with the University of North Dakota hockey program, going 31-29-60 in 61 games with the Fighting Hawks.  Over the following two seasons he played in 17 games with Ottawa (preserving his rookie status for this season), posting a goal and seven assists.

Pinto was fast out the gate to start this season.  After going without a point on Opening Night, he recorded single goals in each of his next five games and six of seven overall.  Ottawa was 4-2-0 in those games.  It might have been a signal that he was going to be a scoring force to be reckoned with and an indicator of team success with his scoring, but he has cooled off considerably since that hot start.  In 26 games since, Pinto is 4-5-9, minus-11, and the Sens are just 1-1-1 in the three games in which he posted goals (4-1-2 in the seven games in which he had points).  Of note for this game, Pinto has not scored goal on the road with November 10^th when he had a pair in a 4-3 overtime loss in New Jersey to the Devils.  Pinto is 1-1-2, plus-2, in two career games against the Caps.

1.  Ottawa comes into this game with a 6-8-2 record on the road, tied for 27^th in the league in points earned (14) and tied for 25^th in points percentage (.438).

2.  The Senators’ 2.75 goals per game on the road is the 24^th-ranked scoring offense in the league.

3. On the other hand, the Senators’ road power play has been formidable, their 30.9 percent success rate tied for best in the league with Dallas.

4.  Ottawa’s penalty killers are one of one of five teams this season yet to allow a shorthanded goal on the road.

5.  Only Boston and Chicago have scored first in road games fewer times (four and twice, respectively) than the Senators (five times in 16 games).

1.  The Caps have allowed 2.53 goals per game on home ice, the sixth-best scoring defense in the league.

2.  Washington’s 85.0 percent penalty kill on home ice is fourth-best it the league.

3.  Only the New York Islanders have scored fewer first period goals on home ice (six in 17 games) than the Caps (nine in 17 games).

4.  Only five teams have allowed fewer goals in the first period on home ice than the Caps (ten).

5.  Only four teams have had fewer shorthanded situations faced on home ice than the Caps (2.35 per game).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Ottawa: Claude Giroux

Well, he has held up his end of the bargain.  When Claude Giroux signed a three-year/$19.5 million contract with Ottawa last July, he was returnng to the province in which he was born.  Although he is still just 34 years old, it had a bit of the last, play out the string feel as a contract.  But Giroux isn’t playing as if he is ready for retirement soon.  He leads this years Senators team in goals (14), is fifth in assists (15), tied for fourth in points (29), tied for fifth in power play points (11), has one of the two overtime goals scored by a Senator this season, and is tied for second in game-winning goals. 

But what is lost in his contributions is that they have largely gone for naught.  He has at least one goal in 12 games this season, but Ottawa is only 5-7-0 in those games (3-4-0 on the road).  He has points in 19 games, but the Senators are just 8-10-1 in those games (4-4-1 on the road).  He logged at least 17:30 in 21 games, the team is just 6-12-3 in those games.  They have won only once in eight tries when he has at least four shots on goal (1-6-1).  What is more ominous for the Senators, his production has fallen off after a fast start.  Giroux was 8-10-18, plus-2, in his first 17 games (the Sens were just 6-10-1 in those games), while he is 6-5-11, minus-2, in his last 17 games (the team is 9-6-2 over that span).  Odd Giroux fact… he has never had a game-winning goal against Washington, something none of the other 14 active players with more than 30 career points against the Caps can say.  In 58 career games against the Caps, Giroux is 24-28-52, plus-8.  Only four active players have faced the Caps in more regular season games, and only four have recorded more points against Washington.

Washington: Garnet Hathaway

After a brutal start in which he had two goals and four points in his first 30 games, Garnet Hathaway is showing signs of being the contributor he was last season when he had a career high in goals (14) and points (26) in 76 games played.  Over his last seven games, Hathaway is 1-3-4, plus-4.  He has not forsaken his lean toward mischief in doing so.  Over those seven games he is tied for 11^th in the league in credited hits (21) and is 14^th among 508 players appearing in at least five games in hits per 60 minutes (14.12).  But he has been playing in the rules, too, earning just one minor penalty in those seven games. 

Those penalty minutes are noteworthy in the overall context of his season.  He does have 37 minutes in penalties this season, but almost half of them were earned in a single game, the product of a five-minute fighting, a ten-minute misconduct, and a two-minute minor for tripping in a 5-1 win over Tampa Bay on November 11^th.  He earned single minor penalties in ten other games.  Given the results of those games, the Caps would just as soon he took none.  Washington was 2-8-0 in those ten games.

It would be better than Hathaway maintain the momentum in the scoring aspect of the game he generated over his last seven games.  The Caps are 5-1-0 in the six games in which he had point so far this season and are 40-12-4 in games in which he posted at least one point in his four seasons with the Caps.  Hathaway is 1-0-1, even, in two career games against Ottawa.

In the end…

After dominating wins in their last two outings against two of the league’s better teams – Winnipeg and the New York Rangers – the Caps enter a soft spot in the schedule with nine consecutive games against teams currently out of the playoff mix.  That string starts Thursday night against Ottawa and is not a time to think about easing off the throttle.

Capitals 5 – Senators 3

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 37: Capitals at Rangers, December 27

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return to the ice on Tuesday night with a visit to Madison Square Garden for a date with the New York Rangers.  It promises to be one of those “irresistible force meets immovable object” contests, but not in the way you might think.  With the Caps bringing Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Dylan Strome, Conor Sheary, and more to this matchup, you would think the “irresistible force” is the Caps.  And with the reigning Vezina Trophy winner, Igor Shesterkin, in goal for the Rangers, they might be viewed as the “immovable object.”

Well, no, not exactly.  Since Thanksgiving, the Caps have had a productive offense, averaging 3.53 goals per game, tenth in the league in scoring offense.  But it is their defense that has shined, allowing only 2.20 goals per game, third in the league in scoring defense.

On the other side, the Rangers have had a good scoring defense, allowing only 2.71 goals per game, tied for eighth in the league in scoring defense since Thanksgiving, but they have wreaked havoc on opposing goaltenders, averaging 3.71 goals per game, sixth in the league in scoring offense.

That scoring offense has been led in goals by Chris Kreider with seven.  Last season, Kreider posted his first career 50-goal season, finishing the season with 52 goals and obliterating his previous career high of 28 goals with the Rangers in 2016-2017.  But whereas last season was jump started with 16 goals in his first 21 games, this season started slowly for Kreider, who had only four goals in his first 13 games, a respectable 25-goal pace, but less than half of last year’s output.  Kreider has awakened from his early season slumber, though.  He has 12 goals in his last 22 games, a 45-goal pace. 

The odd part about Kreider’s recent goal scoring has been how loosely tied it has been to success.  The Rangers are 3-3-0 in the last six games in which he scored at least one goal and just 6-4-0 in the ten games he scored goals over his 22-game goal scoring run.  It is not even that his overall points scoring has been all that influential on wins, although the Rangers’ record in those games is better than if Kreider is considered only for his goals scored.  In 21 games this season in which he had at least one point, New York is 11-6-4.  Ice time is also an issue, which is not surprising given that the Rangers depend on his production.  Only three times in 13 instances of Kreider skating at least 20 minutes this season did the Rangers win (3-6-4).  Kreider comes into this game with two goals in his last five games, both in a 3-2 loss to Pittsburgh on December 20^th, the Rangers’ only loss in their last nine games  He is 9-6-15, even, in 35 career games against the Caps.

The Rangers have had 1,011 players skate for them in their 96 seasons in the NHL.  None have recorded more points per game than Artemi Panarin – 1.31 in 221 games, far more than second-place Jaromir Jagr (1.15 points per game in 277 games with the Rangers).  He is one of only four players in Rangers history to record two seasons with 95 or more points (95 in 2019-2020 and 96 points last season).  Jagr, Mark Messier, and Rod Gilbert are the others.  Over his four seasons with the Rangers, only three players in the league have more points than the 290 he recorded  Connor McDavid (391), Leon Draisaitl (360), and Auston Matthews (291). 

So why, while he is respected as a superior talent, is Panarin not in the conversation all that often among elite point producers in the NHL?  It is an odd situation.  It cannot be his goal scoring, which has been quite consistent over his eight-year career.  For instance, in his previous stops with the Chicago Blackhawks and the Columbus Blue Jackets – two seasons with Chicago and two with Columbus – he posted 116 goals in 322 games, a 30-goal pace per 82 games.  In four seasons with the Rangers, Panarin has 80 goals in 221 games, a 30-goal pace per 82 games.  However, he has never led the team in goals over an entire season (he is tied for fourth this season with nine goals in 35 games), but he has led the team in points in each of his three seasons preceding this one and leads this year’s club with 41 points in 35 games.  He has had his ups and downs this season, though. He was 5-11-16 in his first ten games, but then he went 21 games with but one goal (he did have 19 assists).  He has come out of that slump, going 3-3-6, plus-2, in is last four games entering this contest.  Panarin is 10-16-26, plus-8, in 24 career games against Washington.

Adam Fox has led a blessed life, and a cursed one, since he arrived with the New York Rangers in 2019-2020.  His was a career that started modestly, a third-round (66^th overall) pick by the Calgary Flames in the 2016 Entry Draft, the 18^th defensemen picked in that draft (and, it might interest Caps fans to know, later than Lucas Johansen (28^th overall) and former Capital Dennis Chowloski (20^th by Detroit)).  He would later be traded to Carolina (with Micheal Ferland and Dougie Hamilton for Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm) and then to the Rangers in April 2019 for a second-round draft pick in 2019 and a third-round draft pick in 2020.  In his 2019-2020 rookie season, with the Rangers, Fox dressed for 70 games and finished 8-34-42, plus-22, tied for second among rookie defensemen in goals, third in assists, third in points, and first in plus-minus rating.  He finished fourth in the Calder Trophy voting that year for top rookie, third among rookie defensemen.  Fox followed that up with a 5-42-47, plus-19 in 55 games of the COVID-shortened 2020-2021 season and won the Norris Trophy as the league’s top defenseman.  He was the next new thing in offensive defensemen.

Or maybe not.  One of the defensemen finishing ahead of Fox in the Calder Trophy voting in 2019-2020, the Calder Trophy winner, in fact, was a youngster in Colorado – Cale Makar – a defenseman with the stick handling skills of a top end forward and well-defined hockey sense.  It is Makar, who is as close to a human highlight reel as one will find at the position, who has become the next big thing among offensive defensemen, despite similar statistics over his four seasons (55=154-209, plus-80, in 210 game) to those of Fox (31-167-198, plus-72, in 238 games).  What makes Fox’ numbers noteworthy is how quickly he has climbed up the all-time lists for the Rangers.  Among the 319 defensemen to play for New York in franchise history, he ranks 22^nd in goals (31), 16^th in assists (167), 16^th in points (198), tenth n power play points (82), and tied for ninth in game-winning goals (nine), despite ranking only 40^th in games played (238).  In 14 career games against the Caps, Fox is 1-10-11, plus-12.

1.  The Rangers have not been a dominating team on home ice this season.  Their 8-6-4 record is tied for 13^th place in points earned on home ice (20, with four other team), and their .556 points percentage ranks 19^th in the league.

2.  Scoring on home ice has been an issue for the Rangers.  Their 3.00 goals per game at MSG is the 22^nd-ranked scoring offense in the league on home ice.

3.  Scoring defense has been less than impressive, too.  New York has allowed 3.11 goals per game on home ice, tied for 17^th in the league in scoring defense.

4.  Scoring first matters in the NHL, especially on home ice, but here the Rangers have come up short by league standards.  They are 6-2-2 in the ten games in which they scored first, their .600 winning percentage tied for 22^nd in the league.

5.  If this is a one-goal contest, it could spell bad news for the Rangers. New York is 2-2-4 in one-goal decisions on home ice this season, their .250 wining percentage tied for 29^th in the league.

1.  The Caps are 12-3-1 since November 23^rd, tied for the league lead in wins over that span, second in points earned (25), and fifth in points percentage (.781).

2.  The penalty kill has been very efficient for the Caps over that 16-game span, their 84.1 percent penalty kill rate ranking third in the league.

3.  Over those 16 games, the Caps recorded 33.7 shots on goal per game (sixth in the league), allowed 28.4 shots per game (fourth-fewest), and their plus-5.3 shot differential per game ranks third ovr that span.

4.  The eight wins by three or more goals among the 12 wins in their 16-game run are tops in the league.

5.  In the 16-game run, the Caps trailed after two periods only three times, going 1-2-0 in those contests.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Igor Shesterkin

It is not 2021-2022 anymore.  Last season, Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin finished sixth in wins (36), first among 65 goalies with at least 1,000 minutes in goals against average (2.07), first in save percentage (.935), third in shutouts (six), first in even strength save percentage (.935; minimum: ten games played), and fifth in number of games allowing two or fewer goals (31, minimum: 50 minutes played per game).  He won 29 of 32 first-place votes for the Vezina Trophy to win going away (154 votes to 53 for Jacob Markstrom) and won 24 first-place votes for the Hart Trophy as league most valuable player, the only goaltender to earn any votes.

This season, things have been different.  Of 63 goalies to date to log at least 500 minutes, Shesterkin ranks ninth in goals against average (2.44), 15^th in save percentage (.916), tied for 14^th in shutouts (one), 20^th in even strength save percentage (.924; minimum: five games played), and tied for seventh in games allowing two or fewer goals (11; minimum: 50 minutes per game).

It isn’t that Shesterkin has played badly, just that this season has put into stark relief just how special – and perhaps unique – his 2021-2022 season was. He has been rather consistent this season – 6-2-2, 2.58, .910, with one shutout in his first ten games; 4-2-2, 2.61, .916 in his next eight games.  But now, he is ramping up his game.  He is 7-1-0 in his last eight games with a 2.11 goals against average and a .923 save percentage.  Over that span is second among all goalies in wins (the Caps’ Charlie Lindgren has eight), tenth in goals against (minimum: 200 minutes), and 12^th in save percentage.  Shesterkin is 4-1-0, 2.22, .935 in five career games against the Caps.

Washington: Dylan Strome

One has to think, and Caps fans have to hope, that there is an eruption about to take place in the name of Dylan Strome.  In his first 18 games this season with the Caps, he posted five goals on 33 shots, a 15.2 shooting percentage.  With 13 points overall, he was on a pace for a 23-36-59 season.  He looked like a steal with a one-year/$3.5 million “show me” contract.  He was showing folks that an extension was merited.  But over his last 18 games he is 1-11-12, his lone goal coming on 29 shots (3.4 shooting percentage), although the goal was the game-winner in a 4-1 win over Philadelphia on December 7^th.

The Caps have not really missed his drop in output, going 12-4-2 in those 18 games.  But what sticks out in his production over those 18 games is that he is 1-8-9 in ten road games, tied for third in points for Caps on the road over that stretch.  He has not had a home or road weighted level of performance this season.  His splits are very balanced – 3-9-12, minus-4, in 17 home games, 3-10-13, minus-5, n 19 road games.  But hose minus levels are a issue.  His minus-7 goal differential at even strength overall is worst on the team this season, and in only two of his last eight games was he a plus player in this category.  It matter.  Strome has been on ice for at least one even strength goal against in 18 games this season, and the Caps are 7-8-3 in those games.  On the other hand, the Caps are 9-5-1 in the 18 games in which he was on ice for an even strength goal scored by Washington.

There is also a bordering on the bizarre fact about his ice time.  In 13 games in which Strome skated 17 or more minutes, the Caps are 4-7-2.  They are 15-6-2 in 23 games in which he skated less than 17 minutes.  It has been an odd season for the seven-year vet in some ways, although on balance he gives evidence of being productive center for years to come.  The goal scoring drought seems more hiccup than chronic malady, but Caps fans would no doubt like to see those goals flowing freely once more to give balance to that on-ice goal differential.  Strome is 1-4-5, minus-3, in five career games against the Rangers.

In the end…

On November 22^nd, the Caps were 7-10-3, seventh in the Metropolitan Division and 13^th in the Eastern Conference standings.  In five weeks, the Caps climbed into the second wild-card spot, and with a win over the Rangers in regulation in this contest would jump into the first wild-card spot and could, with a Pittsburgh Penguins regulation loss to the New York Islanders, jump into third place in the Metropolitan Division.  The Caps are in the thick of it now, and they need to stand on the gas pedal as the year comes to a close.  There would be no better place to do this than in New York on Tuesday night.

Capitals 3 – Rangers 2

 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 36: Jets at Capitals, December 23

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return from cold and snowy Ottawa to cold and icy Washington on Friday to wrap up the pre-Christmas portion of the 2022-2023 schedule.  The Winnipeg Jets will make their only visit to Washington to wrap up the two-game season series, the Caps winners in Winnipeg on December 11^th by a 5-2 margin.

The Caps went into Ottawa on Thursday night with a 10-3-1 record in their last 14 games since November 23^rd, while the Jets come to DC as winners of three of their last four games and a 10-4-0 record in their last 14 games before taking on the Boston Bruins on Thursday night.

The 5-2 loss to the Caps as part of that 10-4-0 run notwithstanding, Winnipeg has been strong on both sides of the puck in their recent success.  The Jets averaged 4.07 goals per game since Thanksgiving through Wednesday, the third-best scoring offense in the league over that stretch.  The Jets’ scoring defense has been almost as good, allowing only 2.43 goals per game, the sixth-ranked scoring defense over that period.

The Winnipeg offense has been the beneficiary of a very efficient power play, the fifth-ranked team with the man advantage since their 14-game run started (31.7 percent). It might have been even more productive had the Jets more opportunities, their 2.93 power play chances per game ranked 22^nd in the league.  What is noteworthy about that power play is that only five players share the 13 power play goals scored by Winnipeg over their last 14 games.  It is a group led by Mark Scheifele, who has four of those man advantage goals.  It is quite an improvement for Scheifele, who had only two power play goals in his first 18 games this season.  He is on a pace to finish with 15 power play goals this season, which would be a career high (he had 12 power play goals in 82 games in 2018-2019).

Power play goals are not strangers to Scheifele, whose 66 career power play goals rank second on the all-time Winnipeg list.  It would seem unlikely, though, that he will ever catch the leader, Ilya Kovalchuk, who had 115 power play goals for the franchise when they played out of Atlanta as the Thrashers.  He has been hot overall in the Jets’ 14-game run, going 9-4-13, plus-4, over that stretch.  It is not surprising that his production should coincide with team success.  Scheifele has been a bellwether for the club this season.  In the 13 games in which he has goals, the Jets are 10-3-0; 14-3-0 in games in which he had points.  Winnipeg depends on his offense.  Scheifele is 8-6-14, plus-1, in 17 career games against Washington.

Kyle Connor is the leading scorer overall for the Jets over their 14-game run, going 9-13-22, plus-9, over that stretch.  He might be winding up his production after a slow start to the season.  He had only two goals over his first 14 games this season.  He broke out of that slump with a hat trick against Anaheim on November 17^th that started a run of six goals in six games.  After going without a goal in three games to follow, he has seven goals in nine games going into Thursday’s action.  Even though he has only 15 goals in 32 games to date, if he keeps up the pace he set over his last 18 games (13 goals), he could top last year’s career high 47 goals and challenge the 50-goal mark. 

Connor has been something of a homebody in his goal scoring this season with ten in 17 games on home ice but only five in 15 games on the road.  But even that is deceptive.  He failed to record a goal in his first eight road games this season, but he has five goals in his last seven road contests (he has an eight-game road points streak going into Thursday’s game).  His overall goal scoring as been timely, too.  Of Winnipeg’s 21 game-winning goals this season, Connor has five of them to lead the team.  It has been a feature of his goal scoring profile.  His next game-winner will be the 40^th of his career, tying Ilya Kovalchuk for the all-time team lead in that category.  Connor is 4-5-9, minus-3, in 11 career games against the Caps.

He is 32 years old. He does not score much (27 goals in 765 career regular season games).  He does not put up a lot of points (only two seasons with more than 20 points in his 12 seasons in the NHL).  But Brendan Dillon seems to be doing something right in Winnipeg this season to average more than 20 minutes per game (20:08), the first time he averaged more than 20 minutes a game since 2013-2014, when he averaged 21:06 per game with the Dallas Stars.  And, he has nine points in 32 games this season (all assists).  That is a 23-point pace that would be a career high in points (he had 22 points in 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 with San Jose).  You have to figure, though, that a goal is coming.  Despite having a career high of just six goals in a season (2013-2014 with Dallas), he has never gone a full NHL season without scoring a goal.

It is in the grittier areas of the game in which Dillon makes his contributions.  Winnipeg is 8-3-1 in the 12 games in which he has taken at least one penalty.  The Jets are 17-5-1 in those games in which he was credited with at least two hits.  They are 10-3-0 when he recorded at least two blocked shots.  Od Dillon fact... The Jets are 7-1-0 in the eight games in which he has points this season, the only loss coming in his only multi-point game.  He had two assists in a 6-5 loss to Vegas on December 13^th.  Dillon is 2-2-4, minus-1, in 15 career games against the Caps. 

1.  The Jets are averaging just 27.3 shots per game on the road, the fifth-fewest in the league.

2.  Only the Seattle Kraken have a worse faceoff percentage in road games (41.4 percent) than the Jets (42.8 percent).

3.  Winnipeg has allowed only 14 goals in the third periods of road games this season, tied for sixth-fewest in the league.  On the other hand, they scored only 14 third period goals in road games.  Only five teams have scored fewer.

4.  The Jets scored first ten times in 15 road games through Wednesday.  Seven of their nine road wins came when they scored first in games.

5.  Winnipeg averages only 5.29 takeaways per 60 minutes on the road, third-fewest in the league.

1.  Milestone watch… Evgeny Kuznetsov, with a power play goal, would tie Scott Stevens for 19^th place in team history in power play goals (Stevens had 46).

2.  If Kuznetsov scores in overtime, he will tie Mike “Game Over” Green for third place in overtime goals in Caps history (Green had eight).

3.  If John Carlson nets the game-winning goal, he ties Alexander Semin for tenth place all time in game winners (Semin had 28).

4.  With five shots on goal, Alex Ovechkin will become the all-time league leader in shots on goal (Ray Bourque: 6,209).

5.  If Ovechkin is charged with five minutes in penalties, he ties Mike Gartner for eighth-most in Caps history (Gartner had 770 minutes).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Winnipeg: Pierre-Luc Dubois

Pierre-Luc Dubois has had an odd, V-shaped career to date.  He started his NHL career as the third overall pick (after Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine) in the 2016 Entry Draft, taken by the Columbus Blue Jackets.  He joined the club for the 2017-2018 season, posting 20 goals and 48 points in 82 games and finishing eighth in Calder Trophy voting as the top rookie that season.  He followed that up with 27 goals and 61 points the following season, but his production slowly declined year-by-year thereafter: 18-31-49 in 70 games in 2019-2020 and 9-12-21 in 46 games in 2020-2021.  He missed a bit of time with COVID related issues over that timeframe, but his production was not improving.  Then, having played in just five games to start the 2020-2021 season, with only one goal (his only point) on his record, he was traded to Winnipeg with a third-round draft pick in 2022 for Patrik Laine and Jack Roslovic.

The move has been aggreable to Dubois.  He finished the 2020-2021 season 8-12-20 for the Jets, but his production has been increasing since the move.  He was 28-32-60 in 81 games last season, and he is already 15-22-37 in 32 games so far this season, tied for second on the team in goals scored and third on the club in points.  His six power play goals is tied for the team lead, as are his 14 power play points.  His 18.8 shooting percentage is second on the team among skaters recording at least five shots on goal.  He has yet to go consecutive games this season without a point.   Of particular relevance to this contest, Dubois has points in four of his last five road games, all of which were multi-point efforts (5-4-9).

The odd part about his goal scoring, though, is that while he has goals in 13 games through Wednesday’s games, Winnipeg is just 7-6-0 in those contests.  The Jets are 17-7-0 in the 24 games in which he recorded points.  Dubois is 3-4-7, minus-1, in 14 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Sonny Milano

Answer to a trivia question.  Two Capitals are averaging more than a point per game on home ice this season.  One is Alex Ovechkin (1.13).  And yes, the other is Sonny Milano (1.10).  Only Evgeny Kuznetsov has more even strength points (11) than Milano (nine, tied with Ovechkin).  He is shooting 23.1 percent on home ice, second on the team to Nic Dowd (27.3 percent).  He averages just 1.32 giveaways per 60 minutes on home ice, fourth-fewest among forwards playing in at least ten home games.  He has a plus-4 goal differential at even strength on home ice, second-best among forwards (Kuznetsov: plus-7).  Milano has done all this while appearing in only ten of the Caps’ 16 home games to date.

Milano made his Capitals debut on November 5^th with the team struggling with a 5-5-2 record.  Washington lost to Arizona, 3-2, in his debut with the club, but since then the Caps are 12-6-2 with him in the lineup.  There is a distinct home-road split to his production, though.  On the road, he has only three points in 11 games (all assists) and has a minus-7 rating.  At home, he is 3-8-11, plus-4, in ten games.  All of those points have come in his last eight games at Capital One Arena.

Ice time has been a good indicator of personal and team success with respect to Milano.  In ten games in which he skated more than 13:30, he is 2-6-8, plus-4 (he does not have a minus game), and the Caps are 8-1-1 in those contests.  In the 11 games in which he skated less than 13:30, he is 1-5-6, minus-7, and the Caps are 4-6-1.  Milano is 1-1-2, plus-1, in six career games against Winnipeg.

In the end…

It is cliché to say that a win makes going into the holiday break that much more joyful.  But this game will have standings implications for the Caps, who are on the edge of playoff-eligibility.  They handled Winnipeg rather easily in their last meeting.  This game will likely prove to be harder to manage to a victory.

Capitals 4 – Jets 2

 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 35: Capitals at Senators, December 22

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

While Santa goes over his final checklist before loading up the sleigh and setting off on his big trip, the Washington Capitals will be in Ottawa to take on the Senators to complete the pre-Christmas portion of their schedule.  The Caps head to Canada on a 10-3-1 run over their last 14 games, a stretch that has them on the edge of the group of playoff-eligible teams in the Eastern Conference.

On the other side, the Senators’ season mirrors the Caps’ to date in that they dug themselves an early hole (6-12-1 in their first 19 games) but have slowly been climbing out of it since, posting an 8-4-1 record over their last 13 contests.

The Senators have turned things around largely because of improved play on the defensive side of the puck.  Since allowing 3.58 goals per game in their poor 19-game start, (28th in the league in scoring offense) they shaved almost a full goal per game off their scoring defense in their last 13 games (2.69/tenth in the league in scoring defense over that span).

You would think that the improvement was the product of a reversal of fortune in goal, but not so.  In 19 games through November 24^th, Cam Talbot and Anton Forsberg shared almost all of the goaltending duties, although Talbot was lost for the first month of the season with an upper-body injury and did not make his debut until November 3^rd.  The absence limited him to six starts and eight appearances in that opening 19-game stretch over which he was 1-5-0, 2.83, .910.  It was not as if he was overwhelmed by a high volume of shots faced, he averaged 31.2 shots faced per 60 minutes over his eight appearances.  Since the Thanksgiving break, Talbot started ten games, but his underlying numbers have improved a bit, at least in his goals against average 2.62) while his save percentage did not budge (.910) He was rewarded more in the win column, going 7-3-0 in those ten starts, but the difference was in shots faced.  In those ten starts he averaged 29.1 shots faced per 60 minutes, a 2.0 shots per 60 minutes reduction, which might not seem like a lot, but that is what makes for the difference in goals against average (0.21 lower goals against average).  In 13 career games against the Caps, Talbot is 4-7-0, 2.62, .911.

Meanwhile, Forsberg has had two different seasons.  In the for 19 games of the season, he started 12 times with 13 appearances overall, going 4-7-1, 3.43, .904.  It was a period dominated by a five-game losing streak (0-4-1) to end October and begin November over which he allowed four or more goals four times and stopped just 170 of 190 shots overall (.895).  Since Thanksgiving, he started three games, going 1-1-1, 2.60, .914.  The big difference in his before and after is in the volume of shots faced.  In those first 13 appearances he faced 35.8 shots per 60 minutes, while over his last four appearances he faced only 30.3 shots per 60 minutes.  Forsberg is 4-1-0, 3.07, .900 in six career appearances against the Capitals.

Ottawa has been a consistent team on offense this season, recording a 3.05 goals per game scoring offense in their sluggish 19-game start and 3.06 goals per game in their last 13 games.  There is quite a difference, however, on home ice.  Over those first 19 games the Senators recorded an impressive 3.64 goals per game, the eighth-ranked scoring offense at home at the time.  Over their last 13 games, that output dropped to 2.80 goals per game, tied for 19^th in the league over that span. 

One big difference in the home ice offensive output over those last 13 games has been that of Brady Tkachuk.  In his first 11 home games before Thanksgiving, he was 5-10-15, averaging 1.36 points per game.  In five home games since the holiday, he is 2-1-3, averaging 0.60 points per game.  Five games is a small sample of his season, especially when he is having his first season of his career in which he is averaging more than a point per game overall (13-23-36 in 32 games/1.13 points per game).  Tkachuk is known as something of an ornery player (to his fans), perhaps too often playing on the other side of the rules and good sportsmanship.  Leave it that he’s never going to be a Lady Byng Trophy finalist.   

But being feisty has not exactly been rewarded with marks in the win column.  Tkachuk as taken at least one penalty in 14 games this season, and while that feature of his game corresponds to personal success (points in 11 of those games and 7-11-18 overall), the Senators are just 6-7-1 in those games.  It is hardly a departure from his usual style of play.  Since coming into the league in 2018-2019, he has complied the third highest number of penalty minutes (412), trailing only the Caps’ Tom Wilson (415), and Los Angeles’ Brendan Lemieux (417).  It is in goal scoring in which his positive performance is tied to good fortune for the team.  He has goals in 11 games this season, Ottawa with a 9-2-0 record in those contests.  Tkachuk is 1-6-7, minus-1, in nine career games against Washington.

If one thinks of offensive defensemen in the NHL, the names that might spring to mind include Cale Makar, Roman Josi, and even the Caps’ John Carlson.  It makes it easy to overlook Thomas Chabot.  But since his first full NHL season in 2017-2018, Chabot has 49 goals and 206 points in 339 games.  That is 0.61 points per game, as many over the same period as Seth Jones and Dougie Hamilton; and more than Aaron Ekblad (0.60), Charlie McAvoy (0.59), and Mark Giordano (0.55).  Chabot is not an elite scorer from the blue line, but he is a consistent one.  While he had a career year in 2018-2019 (14-41-55 in 70 games) with Ottawa, over the last three seasons he settled into the mid-30’s in points per season (108 points in 179 games).  However, with 18 points in 27 games he is on a pace to challenge the 50-point threshold once more. He comes into this game on a roll, going 5-8-13 in his last 14 games overall.  Chabot is 2-5-7, minus-4, in ten career games against the Caps.

1.  Ottawa is one of seven teams to average more than 3.00 goals scored (3.38) and more than 3.00 goals allowed (3.13) per game on home ice this season.

2.  The Senators are a top-ten team at home on power plays (26.5 percent/tenth in the league) and a bottom-ten team killing penalties on home ice (76.3 percent/25^th)

3.  Only Florida and Pittsburgh average more shots on goal per game on home ice (37.3 and 36.0, respectively) than Ottawa (35.6).

4.  In 16 games on home ice this season, the Sens have one one-goal win (3-2 in their last home game, over Montreal).  No team has fewer (tied with Buffalo).

5.  There is a symmetry to scoring first at home for the Senators.  In 16 home games, they scored first eight times and trailed first eight times.  The are 5-3-0 when scoring first (.625 winning percentage), 3-5-0 when trailing first (.375) for an 8-8-0 overall record.

1.  Over their recent 10-3-1 run, the Caps scored first seven times and were scored upon first seven times. It hardly mattered – 5-1-1 when scoring first, 5-2-0 when trailing first, a .714 winning percentage in each instance.  Over the same span, only the Pittsburgh Penguins and Caps have winning percentages over .700 when scoring first and trailing first (the Pens are 5-0-1 when scoring first/.833 and 5-2-0 when trailing first/.714).

2.  The Caps put together that record without having the benefit of many power plays.  Their 2.79 power play chances per game over that stretch rank 28^th in the league.

3.  If the power play has not had many chances for the Caps, neither have opponents had many man advantages against the Caps, who gave up 2.57 power plan chances per game over that span (tied for fifth-fewest in the league with Vegas).

4.  Of their ten wins over their last 14 games, the Caps won seven by three or more goals, tied with Winnipeg and Tampa Bay for most in the league. 

5.  The Caps have finished strong in those last 14 games.  They have a plus-2 goal differential in the first periods of those games, but they are plus-8 in the second periods and plus-6 in the third periods of those games.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Ottawa: Alex DeBrincat

Since he came into the league as a second-round draft pick of the Chicago Blackhawks (39^th overall in 2016), he has more goals scored than Mikko (Rantanen: 166), Mika (Zibanejad: 166), and Mark (Scheifele: 159), and more goals than Brad (Marchand: 168), Brayden (Point: 165), and Bo (Horvat: 143).  Alex DeBrincat’s 169 goals scored rank tenth in the league since 2017-2018.  Twice he posted more than 40 goals in a season (41 in each of the 2018-2019 and 2021-2022 seasons), one of eight players to post two or more 40-goal seasons over the five years preceding this one.

So why would the Blackhawks trade a 24-year old player who was among the most effective goal scorers in the league for essentially futures (a first-round draft pick in 2022, a second-round draft pick in 2022, and a fourth-round draft pick in 2023)?  Chicago had the sixth-worst record in the league last season, so perhaps they were engaging in a preemptive tank of the 2022-2023 season to secure a higher spot, perhaps the top spot, in a highly regarded 2023 entry draft.  If that was the aim, they are succeeding, if it could be called that, the Blackhawks holding the worst record in the league at the moment.

Meanwhile, DeBrincat is doing his thing in Ottawa, just not quite as frequently yet.  In 32 games he has nine goals, his 8.0 shooting percentage well under his career 14.7 percent.  It has not been a matter of venue; DeBrincat has five goals on 63 shots (7.9 percent) on home ice, and he has four goals on 50 shots (8.0 percent) on the road.  It is not a matter of his getting power play ice time pared back; his 4:26 in power play ice time per game is the most of his career (he had 3:49 per game with Chicago in 2020-2021).  The power play does bear a closer look, though.  He has five power play goals to date, and his shooting percentage on the man advantage is the first time in six seasons he has been under 20 percent shooting on power plays, but it is his assists that are noteworthy here.  He has 14 assists on power plays so far this season, which ties his career high in just 32 games (he had 14 in 82 games with Chicago last season).  DeBrincat comes into this game 4-13-17, minus-4, in his last 13 games overall, and he brings a four-game points streak on home ice (2-5-7, even).  In eight career games against the Caps, he is 6-4-10, plus-1.

Washington: Trevor van Riemsdyk

Trevor van Rimesdyk might be a defensemen with modest offensive numbers, but he did set a career high in points last season (17).  This season, he is on a pace to top that, not to mention obliterate his career high in goals.  His four goals in 34 games is just one short of the five he recorded with Chicago in 2016-2017, and he is on a pace to finish this season with a 10-10-20 scoring line.

Three of those four goals to date have come in the recent 10-3-1 run the Caps have put together, and he did it on just 11 shots on goal.  Only Erik Gustafsson has more goals among Caps defensemen (four) than van Riemsdyk since the 10-3-1 run started.

But it is not just the scoring.  No Caps defenseman has more takeaways over those 14 games than van Riemsdyk (six, tied with Gustafsson), and he is one of three defensemen with at least 20 blocked shots over that period despite averaging just 17:47 in ice time per game, sixth among the nine defensemen to skat for the Caps.  And about the ice time, he leads all Caps defensemen in shorthanded ice time per game over this stretch, averaging 2:22 per game.

On the road this season, van Riemsdyk has modest sconing numbers – two goals and four points, but you might say he pick his spots.  He has only 11 shots on goal in 18 road games, but that makes his 18.2 shooting percentage best among Caps defensemen on the road.  If there is anything that smudges his recent performance a bit, it is that he is the only skater with a minus-goal differential at even strength over the 10-3-1 run (minus-1).  Van Riemsdyk is 0-3-3, plus-3, in 17 career games against Ottawa.

In the end…

If things go right on Thursday – a Caps win and a New York Islander loss of any kind – Washington will find themselves in the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference, a spot fans might not though possible a month ago.  It says something about the veteran makeup of this team and its resolve as it heads into Game 35 of the season. 

Capitals 4 – Senators 3