The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 46: Capitals at Islanders, January 15th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up a four-game run against Metropolitan Division teams on Monday night when they visit UBS Arena to take on the New York Islanders.  The Caps will be looking to fight off a losing “streak” of two games in regulation, the first time they lost consecutive games in regulation since losing Games 17 and 18 back on November 13^th and 15^th to the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers, respectively.

The Islanders come into this contest dealing with struggles of their own.  A 2-1 win over the Montreal Canadiens stopped a four game losing streak, but the Isles remain a club that has had trouble scoring.  Over their last eight games, they have a total of 16 goals, but six of those came in a 6-2 win ovr Vancouver to open the 2023 portion of their schedule.  In none of the other seven games did they score more than two goals.  Even with that six-goal explosion, the Islanders have the worst scoring offense in the league (2.00 goals per game) over those eight games.

Mathew Barzal has four of the 16 goals scored by the Islanders to lead the team over those last eight games, bringing his total for the season to 11 goals in 43 games.  It has not been the easiest of seasons for the seven-year veteran.  Barzal signed an eight-year, $73.2 million contract extension with the Islanders on October 4^th, and the pressure that comes with such a signing seemed to weigh on him early.  He did not record a goal in his first 18 games, going 0-for-47 shooting, although he did have 19 assists.

Barzal broke the drought with a pair of goals in a 5-2 loss to the Dallas Stars on November 19^th, and since then has 11 goals on 57 shots (19.3 percent shooting).  But back to those two goals in a loss to Dallas.  It is odd that while Barzal has goals in nine games starting with that two-goal contest, the Islanders are just 3-6-0 in those nine games.  They are 16-12-0 in the 28 games in which he recorded a point this season.  Ice time has not been kind to him or to the Islanders this season, either.  In the 23 games in which he skated at least 18:45, New York is just 5-15-3, while they are 18-2-0 in those games in which he skated less than 18:45.  And his shooting, or absence of it, has an odd relationship to outcomes.  New York is 8-3-1 in the 12 games in which he recorded one or no shots on goal.  In 25 career games against Washington, Barzal is 5-16-21, minus-4.

At the other end of the scoring over the last eight games is Brock Nelson.  He has none of the 16 goals scored by the Islanders in that span and only three assists.  Nevertheless, he is still tied for the team lead in goals for the season (15, with Anders Lee).  For a franchise with as long and successful a history as the Islanders, Nelson has quietly moved up the leader board in a number of categories – ninth in team history in games played (720), 11^th in goals (220), 20^th in assists (206), 15th in points (426), 11^th in power play goals (48), tied for second in overtime goals (six), ninth in game-winning goals (36), tenth in first goals scored in games (36), fourth in empty net goals (12), fifth in empty net points (22).

The odd part about Nelson’s scoring this season is how much more productive he has been on the road (10-12-22, even, in 23 games) than at home (5-12-17, plus-2, in 21 games).  All three of his power play goals have come on the road, and his 18.2 shooting percentage on the road dwarfs his 7.0 percentage at home.  He is on an eight-game streak without a goal on home ice going into Monday night’s game, although he does have six assists.  He has been another player for whom ice time and outcomes have a somewhat odd relationship.  In 22 games in which he skated at least 19 minutes, the Islanders are 9-11-2.  Nelson is 12-10-22, minus-5, in 39 career games against Washington.

The Islanders have not made much use of rookie talent this season, the team dressing four rookie skaters for a total of 45 man-games.  Forward Simon Holmstrom has 17 of those games.  He might have had more, but he spent six games on injured reserve in late December after a hit from Florida’s Sam Bennett in a 5-1 win on December 23^rd.  Holmstrom was a 23^rd overall pick of the Islanders in the 2019 entry draft, taken two spots ahead of Connor McMichael by the Caps. 

In 17 games to date, Holmstrom has not had eye-popping scoring numbers (1-1-2, minus-1), and he was not a big scorer in parts of four seasons with the Islanders’ AHL affiliate in Bridgeport (27-43-70, minus-27, in 153 games), but he is seen as a promising playmaking winger who can play responsibly at both ends of the ice.  Of note for this game, Holmstrom is still looking for his first career point on home ice as an Islander. If he gets a sweater, it will be his first career appearance against the Caps.

1.  Brock Nelson is one of 12 players this season to record 10 or more shots in a game, posting ten shots (two goals) in a 4-3 overtime win over Columbus on November 12^th.

2.  The Islanders have struggled to score on home ice this season, their 2.95 goals per game ranking 24^th in the league in home scoring offense.  On the other hand, their scoring defense has been smothering, their 2.19 goals allowed per game at home ranking second in the league.

3.  New York has the best penalty kill on home ice this season (90.7 percent).

4.  In 21 home games so far, the Islanders scored first in only nine of them (tied for seventh-fewest in the league), but they are 8-1-0 in those games, the third-best winning percentage in the league (.889).

5.  New York has the fourth-best winning percentage on home ice in one-goal games this season (.833/5-0-1)  and are one of seven teams yet to lose a one-goal decision in regulation on home ice.

1.  Matt Irwin is the only Capital to appear in more than five road games without recording a point so far this season.

2.  Of 28 skaters to dress for at least one road game for the Caps, 20 of them have at least one goal, and 23 have at least one point.

3.  Of 28 skaters to appear for the Caps his season, six have appeared in all 45 games to date.  Through 45 games last season, only one Capital (Alex Ovechkin) appeared in all 45 games.

4.  Only Vancouver and the Islanders have allowed more shorthanded goals on the road (six and four, respectively) than the Caps (three). Only Minnesota has scored more shorthanded goals on the road (five) than the Caps (four).

5.  Only three teams in the league have more empty net goals scored in road games than the Caps (six) – New Jersey (nine), Pittsburgh (seven), and the Islanders (seven).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Ilya Sorokin

He is third in the league in goals against average among 69 goalies with at least 500 minutes (2.25).  He is second in that group in save percentage (.927).  He is tied for second in shutouts (three).  He is tied for fifth in starts (31).  So why is Ilya Sorokin’ win-loss record just 15-14-2?  Goal support is the easy answer.  The Isles do not provide goalies with a lot of goal support, and they average 2.94 goals per game in his 33 appearances overall.  Twelve times in 31 starts the Islanders scored two or fewer goals when he appeared; twice they were shut out.  He is not exactly playing with much of a margin for error.  But except for an eight-game stretch over which he was 0-6-1 (one no-decision), 2.97, .903, with one shutout, he has been successful on his own terms despite the lack of goal support.

Sorokin might be the “other goaltender” in New York, with the Rangers Igor Shesterkin getting more press attention, but his record of 54-38-13, 2.31, .924, with 13 shutouts over three seasons compares favorably with Shesterkin’s 82-35-13, 2.34, .925, and nine shutouts over four seasons.  And perhaps it was a product of the pecking order of attention the metropolitan New York teams get that when both goalies received Calder Trophy votes in 2021-2022, Shesterkin finished fifth in the voting with a 16-14-3, 2.62, .916 record while Sorokin finished tied for 15^th (with fellow goalie Kaapo Kahkonen) with a 13-6-3, 2.17, .918 record.  This season, while Shesterkin has a 20-6-6 win-loss record to Sorokin’s 15-14-2, Sorokin has an edge in goals against average (2.25 to 2.44), save percentage (.927 to .917) and has three shutouts to one for Shesterkin.  For the moment, Ilya Sorokin seems to be the “stealth” goalie in the NHL, a top-end performer who gets little attention.  In three appearances against Washington, Sorokin is 1-2-0, 2.70, .917.

Washington: Martin Fehervary

After 45 games last season, rookie defenseman Martin Fehervary dressed for 42 games (he missed three games to COVID protocol) and posted a scoring line of 3-3-6, plus-15, averaging, 19:24 in ice time per game.  He averaged 8.31 hits per 60 minutes, showing a physical dimension to his game, but doing so within the rules (he had only six penalties in that number of games).

Through 45 games on the Caps’ schedule this season, Fehervary has dressed for only 33 games, missing time with an upper body injury.  His offensive output is higher on a per-game basis (3-4-7), and his ice time per game (19:40) is virtually unchanged from last year at the same point of the season.  His on-ice goal differential of plus-13 in 42 games at this point last season was better than his differential so far this season with 33 of 45 games played (plus-4), his on-ice goals for to goals against share at even strength (60.354.2 percent) last season better than this season (54.2 percent) but that share this season is still fifth among all Caps defensemen, a respectable ranking for a player who is third among defensemen in even strength ice time per game. 

This season, Fehervary has been a more productive offensive player on the road (3-1-4, plus-4, in 16 road games, 0-3-3, even, in 17 home games), more disciplined (four penalty minutes on the road, ten at home), more engaged offensively (27 shots on goal on the road versus 18 at home).  He comes into this game 3-1-4, plus-4, in his last four road games.  In six career games against the Islanders, Fehervary is 0-1-1, minus-3.

In the end…

The Metropolitan Division is tightening up, and the Caps have not been as successful in their recent games against division opponents than they might have liked, to put some distance between themselves and teams knocking at the door of playoff eligibility.  That is what makes this game important.  A three-game losing streak in the division would not crash the season, but it would be a matter of concern.  That the Caps will have to turn things around against a team that can make opponents miserable trying to move freely about the ice makes things just that much harder.

Capitals 3 – Islanders 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 14

Week 14 was not a good week for the Washington Capitals.  Their return to contests against Metropolitan Division teams – Columbus and Philadelphia, both below them in standings – was an opportunity to keep their recent momentum, advance in the standings, and put some more distance between themselves and teams below them in the division.  It did not turn out entirely as Caps fans would have liked.

Record (1-2-0)

The Caps opened the week in promising fashion, scoring the game’s first goal against the Columbus Blue Jackets less than three minutes into the contest at Capital One Arena on Sunday.  But that would be all the Caps would get, and despite holding on for a 1-0 win, the writing was on the wall that this might be a week in which they would struggle.  When the Caps faced the Philadelphia Flyers in a home-and-home set of games to close the week, they had a chance to take advantage of a club that, despite the fact that they had a successful run of late, that they were still seventh of eight teams in the Metro.  Losing both games by multi-goal margins was concerning, especially since the Caps had been 10-3-0 in the previous 13 meetings of the teams dating back to March 2021.  Instead of finishing the week in third place in the Metro Division, had they swept the Flyers, they finished the week as the first wild-card team in the Eastern Conference and only four points ahead of Pittsburgh, lurking just outside the playoff-eligible group of teams in the East with the Penguins holding three games in hand.

Offense: 1.67 /game (season: 3.20 / 15th)

Five goals in three games.  Five different goal scorers, which might not have been a bad thing but for the fact that none of them had more than one.  And there was the lack of shooting balance.  Alex Ovechkin had his customary place at the top of the shots on goal rankings (16), but no other Capital has as many as ten (T.J. Oshie had nine), and only six Caps had more than five.

There was also the matter of points overall and the fact that Garnet Hathaway and Nic Dowd – fourth line forwards – were the only Capital skaters with more than one point for the week (each player had two).

Erik Gustafsson was the only Capital to record a goal for the week, his strike in the first three minutes of the Caps/Blue Jackets contest being the only goal scored in that game.  Only three Caps defensemen would record points in Week 14, Nick Jensen and Martin Fehervary recording single assists.  Jensen’s assist against Philadelphia in the 5-3 loss on Wednesday extended a decent run of assists – five assists in seven games.

Defense: 2.67 / game (season: 2.76 / 9th)

Shots on goal can be a funny thing.  On the one hand there were the Flyers, who averaged allowing 33.0 shots per game for the week but finished with a 3-1-0 record.  The Caps also allowed 33.0 shots per game but finished with a 1-2-0 record. 

And it was not all that bad a week for the Caps at 5-on-5.  Only four teams allowed fewer goals at fives than did the Caps (five).  The Caps allowed only 137 shot attempts at 5-on-5, eighth-fewest in the league.  No Capital was on ice for more than two goals against at even strength, but having Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov be two of those skaters, especially when each player was on ice for only one goal for at even strength, speaks to whether on the basis of scoring outcomes they should be on the same line.  Garnet Hathaway and Marcus Johansson did not have a goal scored against them on ice at evens for the week, and Nic Dowd was on ice for only one such goal.  It was a decent week for the bottom six forwards, but that is not the highest praise.

Goaltending: 2.38 / .929 (season: 2.56 / .915 / 4 shutouts)

Darcy Kuemper took all the minutes in Week 14, and he might have deserved better, at least in terms of scoring support.  He pitched his league-leading fourth shutout of the season to open the week, and while he stopped just  53 of 60 shots in the two games against the Flyers (.883 save percentage), it was not a bad overall week.  More of one in which an extra win might have been squeezed out with more scoring support. 

Kuemper’s week was characterized by comparatively slow starts, at least in the two games against the Flyers (.850 save percentage in the first periods of the two games) and stronger performances as the games went on (.939 save percentage over the last 40 minutes of the three games overall).  What might be of mild concern is his uneven performance on home ice in recent games.  Of 58 goalies with at least 250 minutes on home ice, his .910 save percentage ranks 24^th, while his .925 save percentage on the road ranks seventh of 70 goalies with 250 minutes played in road games.

Power Play: 0-for-6 / 0.0 percent (season: 21.4 percent / 17th)

Few chances, four shots on goal, no goals.  It was an awful week for the power play.  The first time in 14 weeks that the Caps were shut out on the power play.  And this despite 11 Capitals logging at least one power play minute of ice time.  At least Tom Wilson and Nicklas Backstrom, both coming back to the lineup this week after spending the first half of the season rehabilitating injuries, had shots on goal (one apiece).  There just is not much to say about what might have been the worst week for the power play this season.

Penalty Killing 8-for-11 / 72.7 percent (season: 80.6 percent / 11th)

The Caps did themselves no favors on the other side of special teams.  The 3.67 shorthanded instances per game were fifth-most in the league for the week.  Only three teams allowed more power play goals than the three allowed by the Caps.  Wek 14 broke a streak of seven straight weeks over which the Caps had penalty kills of 80.0 percent or better (49-for-58/84.5 percent).  It was also the third week in the last five in which the Caps faced at least ten shorthanded situations. 

Faceoffs: 86-for-162 / 53.1 percent (season: 49.7 percent / 17th)

The Caps are getting better at this part of the game.  On November 22^nd, they were 25^th in the league in faceoff winning percentage at 46.8 percent, but since then they rank tenth in the league at 52.3 percent.  In Week 14, three of the five Caps taking at least ten draws overall finished at 50 percent or better, led by Lars Eller (64.0 percent).  Eller had a very good week in the defensive zone, winning nine of 13 faceoffs (69.2 percent).  Evgency Kuznetsov was a surprising 12-for-20 in the offensive zone (60.0 percent).  Overall, the Caps were 50 percent or better in all three zones for the week.

Goals by Period

How bad was Week 14?  The Caps came into the week with 58 second period goals, second-most in the league to Seattle’s 59.  At the end of the week, the Caps still had 58 second period goals scored.  It was the hole in the donut (they had three first period goals and two third period goals) that might have cost them a win; they were outscored, 2-0, in the second periods of games in Week 14. 

Year-over-Year

The Caps are holding on to a pace that is not all that different from last year’s team as theyhit the 45-game mark.  The principal difference in record is that this year’s team has swapped in a few more losses in regulation for losses in extra time to account for most of the points difference between last year’s team and this year’s.  Scoring offense, scoring defense, shots per game, penalty killing, shot attempts-for at 5-on-5 are all close to one another on a year-to-year basis through the same number of games.  The power play is better, both in terms of generating opportunities and efficiency.  The number of shorthanded situations faced is significantly higher this season and bears watching as the Caps move forward.

In the end…

This was a week one would like to forget but probably shouldn’t.  It was an opportunity missed, mostly because the Caps’ offense dried up.  Perhaps this is the price the team is paying to re-integrate Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson into the lineup and figure out what line combinations work.  But the Caps do not have a large margin for error in the standings, which suggests that the time for tinkering might be short.

Three Stars

• First Star: Darcy Kuemper (1-2-0, 2.38, .929, one shutout)
• Second Star: Garnet Hathaway (1-1-2, plus-3, no goals against on-ice at even strength, seven hits, three blocked shots, no giveaways)
• Third Star: Erik Gustafsson (1-0-1, plus-2, one game-winning goal, seven shots on goal, no goals against on-ice at even strength, 20:36 in ice time per game).

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Games 44 and 45: Capitals at Flyers, January 11th/Flyers at Capitals, January 14

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals have not had a lot of games against Metropolitan Division – only nine games out of 43 games played to date (6-2-1) – but the Caps return to division wars this week and wrap up a season series in the process when they play the Philadelphia Flyers in a home-and-home set of games Wednesday in Philadelphia and Saturday in Washington.

The Caps have the league’s best record since November 23^rd at 16-4-3 and are one of only two teams to be top-five in both scoring offense (3.70 goals per game/fourth) and scoring defense (2.22 goals allowed per game/second), Toronto being the other. 

On the other side, the Flyers are 9-10-3 over the same period, tied for 22^nd in the league in points over that span.  But Philadelphia is showing signs of being better lately.  After struggling in the run-up to the Christmas break with a 2-5-2 record, the Flyers are 5-1-0 since Christmas.  Only once in those six games did they score fewer than five goals, and only twice did they allow more than two. 

Center Travis Koniecny has set the pace in scoring for the Flyers in their recent run.  Over the last six games he is 6-5-11, plus-7. His six goals are tied for fifth in the league over that stretch, while his 11 points are tied with Kevin Fiala for most in the league.  Perhaps Konecny is finally settling in to being the top-notch scorer the Flyers might have envisioned when they took him as the 24^th overall pick in the 2015 Entry Draft.  It has not been that Knoecny has been a poor performer; in fact, he has been consistent.  After posting 11 goals in 70 games as a rookie in 2016-2017, he recorded three consecutive 24-goal seasons.  However, his production dipped to 27 goals in 129 games over the next two seasons coming into the 2022-2023 campaign. 

But Konecny came out of the starting gate hot this season and has not let up.  Not even missing six games to an upper-body injury in late November has been able to slow him down.  Only once in 35 games played has he gone consecutive games without a point, and he has at least one point in 28 of those 35 games.  He also has goals in 18 of those 35 games, over which the Flyers are 10-6-2.  The question regarding his scoring is whether his 18.9 shooting percentage to date (16^th among 353 skaters with at least 50 shots on goal) is sustainable.  While he had a respectable 12.1 percent shooting mark over five seasons entering this one, a correction might be in order.  In 28 career games against the Caps, Konecny is 6-5-11, minus-7.

Is in his second tour with the Flyers.  In June 2019, he was traded to the Flyers by the San Jose Sharks for a second-round draft pick in 2019 and a third-round draft pick in 2020.  He was traded to the New York Rangers in March 2022 for 1 2023 third-round draft pick, but he returned to the Flyer fold when he signed a one-year/$1.0 million contract as a free agent last July.  Braun has never been much of an offensive defenseman.  In 791 games over 12 seasons for three teams coming into this season, he had 34 goals and 197 points.  If one thing sticks out among the “numbers” about Braun, it is that he is, by far, the oldest of the eight defensemen to dress for the Flyers this season (he will be 36 in February), more than six years older than Nick Seeler.

Given his profile, one would expect that Braun would be the veteran anchor of a defensive squad where half the members are age 26 or younger.  But he has played in only 33 of 41 games this season, only one since December 22^nd.  The problem lies in part with the fact that the Flyers just have not done well with Braun in the lineup, going 12-14-7 in the 33 games in which he dressed (4-4-0 in games in which he was absent).  It has not helped his or the Flyers’ cause that through 33 games played he is still looking for his first point of the season. He is on a 37-game streak without a point dating back to last season.  In 29 career games against the Caps, Braun in 0-7-7, plus-6.

If there has been a surprise this season for the Flyers, it might be rookie winger Noah Cates.  The first surprise is that Cates – a fifth round (117^th overall) pick of the 2017 Entry Draft and the seventh player drafted by the Flyers in that draft – has appeared in every game to date.  No rookie through Monday’s games has appeared in more games.  There is also the fact that Cates is tied for eighth in points by a rookie in the league to date (17) and is tied for eighth in plus-minus rating (plus-4).  Only Seattle’s Matty Beniers has more game-wining goals (three) than Cates (two, tied with six other rookies), and he leads all rookie forwards in ice time per game (17:45).

We are approaching the time of the season when some rookies who carry a significant workload hit a wall. That has not yet happened with Cates, who is 2-6-8, plus-3, over his last 11 games.  His contributions are consistent with the results of a secondary-scoring player.  He has goals in five games to date, and the Flyers are 4-0-1 in those contests; the Flyers are 7-4-1 in the 12 games in which he has points.  In the ten games in which he logged at least 19 minutes, the Flyers are 5-1-4.  With respect to his ice times, there are those occasions in which a rookie might slump and give the head coach cause to sit him or reduce his minutes.  The former has not happened, and as to the latter, Cates has not skated less than 14:43 in any game this season, only about three minutes under his average this season.  Cates is 0-0-0, minus-3, in three career games against the Caps.

1.  Philadelphia’s net power play on home ice (accounting for shorthanded goals scored by opponents) is the fourth-worst on home ice in the league (12.1 percent). It is slight better, efficiency-wise, on the road at 12.7 percent, but it ranks 31^st in the league.

2.  Only Montreal has scored first in fewer games on home ice (three) than the Flyers (five), who are just 2-3-0 in the limited instances they did so (.400 winning percentage/31^st in the league).  They are also frustrated in this area on the road – 3-3-2/.375 (29^th in winning percentage).

3.  If the Flyers can get a lead after 40 minutes on home ice, they will like their chances.  They are 7-0-0 on home ice when leading after two periods.  Even on the road they have been successful, just not frequent in getting those 40-minute leads (4-0-1 in 22 road games).

4.  The Flyers have been digging early holes on home ice.  They have a minus-8 goal differential in first periods on home ice, fifth-worst in the league.  That is worse than their goal-differential in first periods on the road (minus-2).

5.  No team has more losses by three or more goals on home ice than the Flyes (nine in 19 home games).

1.  Washington has not been an especially prolific scoring team on home ice, their 3.32 goals per game ranking 14^th in the league in home scoring offense.  They have averaged fewer goals per game on the road (3.11) but rank 11^th in road scoring offense.

2.  The Caps have been very good at home holding down opponents’ scoring, the 2.59 goals allowed per game at home ranking sixth in the league in scoring defense.  They have been almost as good on the road, the 2.81 goals allowed per game ranking eighth in road scoring defense.

3.  Only 28 first period goals have been scored by the Caps and opponents in 22 games at Capital One Arena this season, split evenly at 14 apiece. The Caps have a minus-4 goal differential in first period goals in 21 road games (15 for, 19 against).

4.  Only Pittsburgh has allowed more overtime goals on home ice (four) than the Caps (three, tied with three other teams).

5.  The Caps are on of three teams that have trailed first at least ten times on home ice with a winning percentage of at least .500 (5-4-1/.500).  Winnipeg and Toronto are the others.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Philadelphia: Samuel Ersson

It was supposed to be Carter Hart’s net.  And for the most part this season, it has been.  Hart has taken 28 of the 41 starts by Flyer goaltenders to date.  But his 11-12-6, 2.97, .908, is not what the team might be expecting, even for a club that is still struggling to achieve competitive status with other playoff contenders.  Perhaps a victim of circumstance (the Dlyers’ overall struggles) or his own shortcomings, he has not been the answer many thought he could be when he burst upon the scene with a rookie season good enough for him to finish ninth in Calder Trophy voting and a sophomore season that was an improvement over his rookie year (24-13-3, 2.42, .914, one shutout).  Over his next two seasons he was 22-35-12, 3.34, .895, with two shutouts. 

But Hart was injured in a December 23^rd game against Carolina, leaving the net to Felix Sandstrom, or it would have but for Sandstrom missing time to illness.  It is in that context that Samuel Ersson is an intriguing character.  Ersson was called up from the Lehigh Valley Phantoms of the AHL on December 21^st to fill in for Sanderson and was pressed into duty when Hart was injured.  He completed that game Hart started against Carolina and allowed five goals on 30 shots in 47 minutes in a 6-5 loss (he did not earn the decision).  But since then, Ersson has been impressive, allowing three goals on 28 shots to San Jose, two in 25 shots against Los Angeles, one on 29 shots against Anaheim, and most recently a 28-save shutout in a 4-0 win against Buffalo – all wins, and all on the road. In his short time with the big club, he is 4-0-0, 2.30, .924, that save percentage tops among all rookie goalies playing at least 100 minutes.  It was not as if any of this was expected.  With the Phantoms, Ersson was 9-8-1, 2.72, .910, his goals against average ranking 25^th among qualifying goalies and his save percentage ranking 19^th.  One might say that the Flyers have credible alternatives to the goaltending position, but it looks from a distance like one that remains – as it seems to have been for decades – in flux.  Ersson has never faced the Caps.

Washington: T.J. Oshie

T.J. Oshie is not the offensive producer he has been in the past.  At his current rate of point production, he will finish 2022-2023 with the only season of his 15-year career not averaging more than half a point per game (he has 13 points in 26 games/0.50 points per game).  He will finish the season with his second consecutive year with less than 0.30 goals per game, something he has not done since 2013-2014 and 2014-2015, his final two seasons with the St Louis Blues.  His 12.5 shooting percentage is his lowest since 2014-2015, his last year with the Blues, when he shot 11.7 percent.  His 16:42 in ice time per game is his lowest since his rookie year in 2008-2009 (16:35 per game).  And while neither a center nor a player with a heavy faceoff load, he does take a lot of draws for a winger, yet his 37.7 winning percentage is the worst of his career.

And yet, the Caps win when he is on the ice.  In 26 games this season in which he played, the Caps are 16-8-2; they are 7-6-4 in the 17 games he missed.  It is not as if this an unusual or isolated phenomenon.  Since coming to the Caps in July 2015, the Caps are 299-132-52 in games in which he dressed (a 110-point pace per 82 games) and 98-58-21 (a 101-point pace per 82 games) in games he missed.  The consistency of the relationship between his being on ice and Caps success looks like a reflection of the limitation of numbers – top line or more sophisticated statistics – to capture his impact on outcomes.  Oshie’s absences this season, twice missing time to what appeared to be non-contact injuries, have denied him much of an opportunity to establish and scoring momentum.  In 26 games he has three streaks of three or more games without a point, and he does not have an assist on his resume since November 25^th, a streak of 15 games and counting.  What has been particularly curious about his season to date is an inability to score at home.  He has two goals on 30 shots (6.7 percent) in 12 games on home ice so far this season, even though he is averaging about a minute more in home ice time per game (17:11) than on the road (16:17).  Oshie is 12-12-24, plus-1, in 39 career games against Philadelphia.

In the end…

With as little game action as the Caps will have this week, it is an opportunity to get some practice in and put those lessons to work to play with structure and focus.  The Flyers are a feisty and familiar enough foe to get and hold the Caps’ attention, so taking the opponent for granted should – that is “should” – not be an issue.  It will be difficult to gain much, if any ground in the standings with just the two games against the Flyers on the slate, but that makes these two games important to maintain and solidify their place in the playoff mix.

Wednesday: Capitals 4 – Flyers 2

Saturday: Capitals 5 – Flyers 2

 

 

Just a Reminder...

 For 20 games, the Caps were not very good.  And then, they were...

So, Caps fans...if there are any among you inclined to pick nits, complain about this, or whine about that...you need to rethink your choices.

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 13

The margin between a really good week and a mediocre one in eh NHL can be measured in a few minutes.  It was true for the Washington Capitals in Week 13. They allowed a game-tying goal in the second half of the third period of one game before losing in overtime, and they were less than five minutes from forcing overtime when they surrendered the game-winning goal in another context to leave them with a 1-1-1 record that could have ended much better with better late-game management.

Record (1-1-1)

The Caps went into Week 13 on an 11-1-1 run and opened the week hosting a club on the rise in the Buffalo Sabres, who were on a 6-1-0 run of their own.  Washington went into the third period trailing but pulled ahead on goals by Nic Dowd and Alex Ovechkin.  The Caps could not hold on to their good fortune, though, and gave up the game-tying goal to Tyson Jost with less than nine minutes left in regulation to force overtime.  Three minutes in, Tage Thompson scored to give the visitors the extra standings point.  The Caps then spotted the Columbus Blue Jackets the opening goal in the middle contest of the week, then took over in the second period, outscoring the jackets, 6-1, over the final 40 minutes for a 6-2 win. 

The Caps had a chance for a winning week when Nashville come to town on Friday, but the Predators sandwiched a pair of goals around a Sonny Milano strike to take a 2-1 lead into the first intermission.  Washington tied it in the second period on a Nicolas Aube-Kubel goal, but the Caps could not find the tie-breaking goal before Ryan McDonagh scored with just 3:16 left in regulation to leave the Caps with a 1-1-1 record for the week.

Offense: 4.00 /game (season: 3.31 / 10th)

Three games, 12 goals, seven goal-scorers.  Alex Ovechkin led the team with three goals for the week, but the Caps continue to get important contributions from role players.  In Week 13, it was Aube-Kubel, who potted his first two goals of the season, and Sonny Milano, who has been a real spark for this team and had a pair of goals of his own.  T.J. Oshie continued working himself into playing form after an injury to be the third Capital with two goals.  Martin Fehervary chipped in with his third goal (the game-winner against Columbus) in six games after going his first 23 games of the season without one.  Nic Dowd scored his fifth goal in eight games.

What was remarkable about the offense, though, was that 18 of 20 skaters to dress for the week had at least one point, four Caps had three points, and another six had two or more.  Dylan Strom (0-3-3), Milano (2-1-3), Ovechkin (3-0-3), and Evgeny Kuznetsov (0-3-3) were the four Caps with three points apiece.

Ovechkin led the Caps with 13 shots on goal, but once more there were those role players close by.  Milano was second for the week with nine shots on goal, while Trevor van Riemsdyk tied T.J. Oshie with eight shots on goal.  There were also six Caps averaging a shot on goal per game played and a shooting percentage of 20 percent or better, led by Aube-Kubel, who had hs two goals for the week on four shots (50.0 percent).

Defense: 3.33 / game (season: 2.76 / 9th)

That the Caps would allow 3.33 goals per game looks a bit odd, given that in none of the three games for the week did the Caps allow as many as 30 shots on goal.  They did not allow more than 11 in any single period and allowed an average of 25.7 shots per game for the week.  They had a huge edge in shots of goal-for on ice at 5-on-5 – 155-134 (plus 21, tied for seventh best in the league for the week), yet they did allow eight 5-on-5 goals, tied for seventh-most in the league for the week.

The fourth line of Nic Dowd, Garnet Hathaway, and Aliaksei Protas took it on the chin in terms of individual on-ice goal differential at 5-on-5.  Hathaway was a team-worst minus-3, while Dowd and Protas each were minus-2.  Nick Jensen was the only other Capital, and the only defenseman, to post a negative goal differential at fives (minus-2).  All 20 of the Capitals skaters playing in Week 13 were on ice for at least one 5-on-5 goal against.

Goaltending: 3.31 / .870 (season: 2.57 / .914 / 3 shutouts)

It was not an especially good week for the goaltenders.  Both Darcy Kuemper and Charlie Lindgren finished the week north of 3.00 in goals against average and south of .900 in save percentage.  Only twice in nine regulation periods of hockey were they able to keep opponents off he scoreboard, and first periods were most difficult, Kuemper and Lindgren combining to stop 23 of 28 shots (.821 save percentage).  The save percentages improved over the periods (.909/20-for-22 in the second periods, .920/23-for-25 in the third periods), but early slow stats hampered the Caps generally.  And, the two third period goals allowed happened to be a game-tying goal in a game the Caps would lose in overtime and a late goal to give Nashville their winning margin in regulation.

Power Play: 2-for-6 / 33.3 percent (season: 22.4 percent / 16th)

The efficiency was good, but the Caps lacked opportunities to capitalize further on what was an efficient week for the power play.  Only three teams for the week had fewer man advantages per game than did the Caps (2.00).  As usual, Ovechkin led the team in power play shots with four.  But no other Capital had more than one, and only three Caps were in that group – Dylan Strome, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and T.J. Oshie.  Strome had the primary assists on both Caps power play goals for the week (Ovechkin and Oshie).  It was anemic production, and not only because the Caps had only six power play chances.  There were nine Caps who logged at least 1:30 in power play ice time for the week.

Penalty Killing 5-for-6 / 83.3 percent (season: 81.4 percent / 9th)

If the lack of power play chances was a minus on special teams, the lack of shorthanded situations faced was a plus.  No team faced fewer shorthanded situations per game than did the Caps in Week 13 (2.00).  Washington spread the penalty killing responsibilities around, even with few penalty kills to face.  Nine Caps – four defensemen and five forwards – averaged at least 1:30 in penalty killing ice time for the week.  Week 13 extended a run of consistency on the penalty kill.  It was the seventh straight week in which the Caps were 80.0 percent or better killing penalties and are 84.5 percent overall during that stretch, the third best penalty kill in the league.

Faceoffs: 97-for-166 / 58.4 percent (season: 49.5 percent / 19th)

It was a very good week in the circle for the Caps, who have climbed from near the bottom of the league rankings in this category to 19^th overall.  The overall numbers for Week 14 were inflated a bit by a 64.4 percent winning percentage in the neutral zone, but the Caps were still over 50 percent in all three zones for the week.

The overall performance was fueled by Lars Eller, Dylan Strome, and Nic Dowd, each of whom finished the week over 60 percent overall. Only Evgeny Kuznetsov had a sub-50 percent week among those Caps taking at least ten draws, but he has improved in this area over recent weeks, bringing his overall season winning percentage to 47.4 percent, which at the moment stands as the second best faceoff winning percentage of his career.

Goals by Period

Although the Caps let games get away from them late, they might have been in that position had they performed better in first periods of games.  They were minus-3 for the week in goal differential, and again it was their lack of first period scoring that hurt.  The Caps have scored only 28 first period goals in 42 games through 13 weeks, tied for 25^th in first period goals scored and the reason they are a minus-5 in first periods of games this season. 

Year-over-Year

This year’s Caps have almost caught last year’s club in many categories.  They are now down by just one win from last year’s team, although they do have four more losses in regulation, accounting for the five point difference that remains between the two editions.  Scoring offense and defense are now almost indistinguishable from last year, as are shots on goal.  This year’s special teams are better, and significantly so, as is the faceoff winning percentage.  The real difference, year to year, is that the Caps are 12-3-3 since December 1^st this season.  Last season, over the December 1 – January 7 period, the Caps had a bye week but were still just 6-3-3 in the games they did play.

In the end…

The Caps did their job in the 2022 portion of the season, keeping close to the leaders to buy time until some of the injured (Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson most notably) back.  Even with a sluggish Week13, the Caps seem far ahead of where many thought they would be, and now they get a pair of games against an old rival –the Philadelphia Flyers – in Week 14.

Three Stars

• First Star: Alex Ovechkin (3-0-3, plus-2, 13 shots on goal, 13 credited hits, only one goal against on ice at even strength)
• Second Star: Sonny Milano (2-1-3, plus-4), nine shots on goal)
• Third Star: Nicolas Aube-Kubel (2-0-2, plus-1, four shots on goal, only two games played)