“You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take.”
-- Wayne Gretzky
For the last six seasons, Jay Beagle was the pivot on the
fourth line for the Washington Capitals.
A fine example of what hard work, despite his modest beginnings
(undrafted), could accomplish. Last
spring he became the first player in NHL history to win a Kelly Cup (ECHL),
Calder Cup (AHL), and Stanley Cup (NHL) in NHL history. It says something of Beagle as a player and a
person that few harbor any resentments that at the end of his championship
season, he signed a contract as an unrestricted free agent with the Vancouver
Canucks.
Beagle’s departure opens up a hole in the middle of the
fourth line, one that could be filled by Chandler Stephenson this season. Stephenson, if coming from beginnings not
quite as modest as Beagle, has had to put in his time in apprenticeship to an
NHL roster spot. Caps fans might forget
that he was drafted one spot ahead of Shayne Gostisbehere (third round/77th
overall) in the 2012 draft), or that he played another two seasons in Canadian
junior (Regina Pats). He spent parts of
four seasons with the Hershey Bears in the AHL, two of those seasons getting a
taste of NHL action (13 games) with the Caps.
It came together for Stephenson in his first NHL game, that
coming on October 26th against the Vancouver Canucks. Late in the third period of that contest,
Stephenson took a pass from Beagle at the red line, circled though the neutral
zone and down the left side of the Canucks’ end. Just before curling around the back of the
net, he snapped a shot from the goal line extended to the left of goalie Anders
Nilsson that snuck between the goalie and the near post for his first NHL goal
and first NHL point. We might have said “it
all came together,” but the Caps lost the game, 6-2.
It was the first of 67 games Stephenson played last season,
going 6-12-18, plus-13. That he had six
goals was something of an achievement (or an example of uncommon
efficiency). Among forwards dressing for
at least 50 games last season, only Vegas’ Ryan Reaves averaged fewer shots on
goal per game (0.53) than did Stephenson (0.54). He was the only player, regardless of
position, who had fewer than 40 shots on goal and more than five goals (San
Jose’s Joel Ward had five goals on 40 shots).
Odd Stephenson Fact…
Chandler Stephenson is the first Capitals rookie in 20 years
to record fewer than 40 shots and at least five goals. Stephenson had six goals on 36 shots last
season. Jan Bulis had five goals on 37
shots as a rookie in 1997-1998.
Fearless’ Take…
It is not as if Chandler Stephenson has no history as a
scorer. In 230 games in Canadian junior
he had 73 goals, including 30 in 69 games in his last year with the Regina
Pats. He had ten in 72 games in his last
full season with the Hershey Bears, and in that season (2016-2017) he had 28
assists, fifth on the team. He showed
some ability to be a threat shorthanded with four shorthanded goals in 180
games at Hershey, and he had one last spring in the Caps’ playoff run, giving
the Caps some insurance in the 6-3 series-clinching win over the Columbus Blue
Jackets in the first round.
Cheerless’ Take…
There was a weird “all-in or all-out” thing about Chandler
Stephenson’s numbers. The Caps were 8-1-0
in the nine games in which he had two shots on goal (he did not have more than
that in any game), and they were 24-11-5 in the 40 games in which he did not
have a shot on goal. One shot? They were 9-9-0. And there was his ice time. He averaged 11:52 per game last season. In the 35 games he skated above his average,
the Caps were 20-11-4. In the 32 games
he skated under his average, they were 21-10-1.
He might get a chance to be a little more of a difference-maker if he
slides off the wing into Beagle’s spot in the middle of the fourth line.
Potential Milestones:
- 100 career games played (he needs 20)
- 50 career points (he needs 32)
- 1,000 career minutes played (he needs 99)
The Big Question… Can Chandler
Stephenson make the Caps “four-deep” in the middle with the departure of Jay
Beagle?
Let’s face it, if you are
contemplating whether a youngster can adequately fill in a fourth line center
role, yours is a club without a lot of roster issues. That said, Stephenson has to win that fourth
line center role (he could, as he did for much of last season, play on the wing). It is not a certainty. He could be pressed by someone like Travis
Boyd in camp or during the season for that role. But Stephenson has played in the middle, and
his numbers last year did suggest some potential to play it once more. For example, he did not take a lot of
faceoffs (on Beagle’s line, he would not have done so), but he did win 40 of 73
draws, a respectable 54.8 percent winning mark.
He averaged 1:10 in shorthanded ice time per game, one of five forwards to
average more than a minute per game killing penalties. He nearly doubled that in the postseason,
averaging 2:01, second on the team (to Beagle).
In the end…
Their origins might differ, but there is some similarity in
the early NHL career progress between Jay Beagle and Chandler Stephenson. Beagle got his first sustained taste of NHL
work in his third season (31 games, after a total of ten in his first two
years), and so did Stephenson (67 games after a total of 13 over his first two
seasons). Both averaged around 11
minutes per game in what was their rookie season (Beagle – 10:30, Stephenson –
11:52). Stephenson displayed more
development as an offensive player than did Beagle (6-12-18 in 67 games of his
rookie season to 2-1-3 in 31 games for Beagle in his).
The picture that seems to be coming into focus is that Chandler Stephenson might not be the fully developed player (in terms of reaching his potential) that Jay Beagle was last season, but he might be ahead of where Beagle was at a comparable point in their development. If Stephenson can continue upward on his development arc, he will fill the middle of the fourth line nicely. But still, it might be nice if he shot the puck a little more.
The picture that seems to be coming into focus is that Chandler Stephenson might not be the fully developed player (in terms of reaching his potential) that Jay Beagle was last season, but he might be ahead of where Beagle was at a comparable point in their development. If Stephenson can continue upward on his development arc, he will fill the middle of the fourth line nicely. But still, it might be nice if he shot the puck a little more.
Projection: 79 games, 7-14-21, plus-12
Photo: Kirk Irwin/Getty Images North America
