“Your best teacher is your last mistake.”
-- Ralph Nader
“The Vezina Trophy is an annual award given to the
goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position as voted by the general
managers of all NHL clubs.”
That is the citation for the Vezina Trophy. Braden Holtby is the only goaltender in the
NHL to receive votes for that award in each of the last three seasons. He is the only goalie in the league to have
received any first place votes for that award in two of the last three
seasons. He and Carey Price are the only
two goalies to have been named finalist for the award twice in the last three
seasons. Holtby won the award in 2016
and finished second this past season.
That is an argument to support the contention that Holtby is the best
goaltender in the game. But if you do
subscribe to that argument, you might have to accept that it comes with an
asterisk, but we’ll get to that.
As far as the regular season is concerned, Holtby had what
might have been his best season. Among
his five seasons appearing in the majority of Caps games, he had his best
goals-against average (2.07), best save percentage (.925), and tied his career
high in shutouts (9, set in 2014-2015).
He had his best save percentage at even strength (.935).
Holtby fell six wins short of last season’s all-time
record-tying total of 48, but he did tie for the league lead with 42 wins
(Edmonton’s Cam Talbot also had 42, but in ten more appearances). It was in part a product of a slightly lower
workload. He appeared in three fewer
games and logged more than 150 fewer minutes.
One gets the feeling, though, that Holtby is the sort of
goalie who is a bit less effective if his mind is left alone to wander. He was 16-3-3 , 2.10, .935, with one shutout
in 22 decisions in which he faced 30 or more shots; 26-10-3, 2.06, .917, with
eight shutouts in games in which he faced fewer than 30 shots (including games
in which he was relieved early; he did go into a game in relief this season).
Holtby’s ten-game splits looked like a roller coaster of
performance, but in an odd sort of way.
In his first four splits he was just 19-8-4, while in his last four he
was a superb 23-5-1. However, in his first
four splits he had a goals-against average of 1.90 and a save percentage of .931,
with five shutouts. In the last four
splits those numbers were 2.25, .918, and four shutouts.
Fearless’ Take… Braden Holtby is the only Capital goaltender
ever to lead the league in wins. He is
the only goaltender since Martin Brodeur in 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 to lead or
tie for the lead in wins in consecutive years.
He is the only goaltender in the last three seasons to have appeared in
at least 20 games and record a save percentage of .920 or better in all of them. He has more shutouts over the last five
seasons (29) than any other NHL goaltender (Tuukka Rask has 27). His 2016-2017 season was just another brick
in that wall.
Cheerless’ Take… Holtby’s record after losses this season
was not of the “stopper” sort he’s had in past years. He was 12-4-3, 2.13, .925, with one shutouts
after losses (regulation or extra time); 30-9-3, 2.04, .925, with eight shutouts
after wins.
Odd Holtby Fact… This season was the first in his five
seasons appearing in the majority of the Caps’ games that he did not record a
penalty minute.
Game to Remember… January 5th vs. Columbus
When the Columbus Blue Jackets came to Washington on January
5th, the stars were aligned in favor of the Jackets extending their
winning streak to 17 games, one that would tie the all-time mark (Pittsburgh
Penguins in 1992-1993). They were on a
roll, and they came to Washington facing a goalie against whom they had a
measure of success. Braden Holtby, who
was facing the Blue Jackets for the first time in the 2016-2017 season, had an
8-2-2 record against Columbus, but he had a career 2.81 goals-against average
and .902 save percentage against the Jackets,
Coupled with his having an awful game in his previous outing two days
previous, there was suggested a vulnerability.
Whatever vulnerability there might have been was snuffed out
in the first period when he stopped all 11 shots he faced while his teammates
scored a pair of goals to take the early lead.
He stopped all ten shots he faced in the second period as the Caps
doubled their lead, then shut the door in the third with eight saves on eight
shots to complete the 5-0, 29-save shutout to end the Columbus winning
streak. At the time, it was only the
second time in the season that Columbus had been shut out and the first time on
the road.
Game to Forget… January 3rd vs. Toronto
That awful game Holtby had before facing Columbus came at
home against the Toronto Maple Leafs. It
was hard to see coming, since Holtby was 6-2-3, 1.60, .943, with two shutouts
in his previous 11 appearances, and he was dominating on home ice. And, when the Caps scored on their second
shot on goal just 74 seconds into the game, courtesy of Justin Williams, it looked
as if it would be one more happy night for the Caps and their fans.
Then, the Leafs scored on their second shot, Nazem Kadri
whacking in a loose puck on a power play.
Then they scored on their fourth shot, five minutes later. The Caps tied the game late in the period,
but Toronto scored again with less than two minutes left in the first period to
take a 3-2 lead into the first intermission.
When the teams came out for the second period, Holtby was on the bench,
his night over in what would be his shortest outing of the season – 20 minutes –
having allowed three goals on eight shots.
The Caps did win the game, though, 6-5 in overtime.
Postseason: 13 games, 7-6-0, 2.46, .909
The 2017 postseason was, by quite a margin, Holtby’s worst
in five trips. From 2012 through 2016,
Holtby was the only goaltender in the league to appear in at least ten
postseason games (he appeared in 46), post a goals-against average under 1.90
(1.87) and a save percentage over .935 (.937).
He played much better overall than his 22-24 record would indicate. This year, though, he finished 11th
among 23 goalies appearing in the playoffs in goals-against average (2.46) and
15th in save percentage (.909).
His even strength save percentage of .911 was 16th in that
group. He allowed three or more goals in
six of the 13 games in which he played and had a save percentage under .900 in
six games, four of them against Pittsburgh in the second round, three of them
losses. His home record was especially
disappointing, going 3-4, 2.35, .914, even if his production numbers (2.60,
.904) were worse on the road. A team
that finished fourth in scoring offense (2.77 goals per game, tied with
Edmonton) should have fared better with a goalie with Holtby’s postseason
pedigree, but for whatever reason, this year he could not find that spark.
In the end…
Most folks think that goaltender is the most important
position on the ice, especially when the games matter most in the
postseason. You do not have to have
elite goaltending, necessarily (only 16 times, for example, has the Conn Smythe
Trophy as the postseason’s most valuable player been won by a goalie), but you
cannot have iffy goaltending in the postseason and make a deep run. Perhaps Capitals Nation was spoiled by Braden
Holtby’s superb four-year run in the postseason. Whatever misfortune the Caps had could not be
laid at his feet. Over a five year
stretch that included four trips to the playoffs, he was arguably among the best
playoff goalies, in terms of playing his position, in the post-expansion era of
the NHL
This year did not measure up, and it cast a shadow over his season and going forward. Consider that over his last 27 appearances – regular and postseason – he was 15-11-1, 2.61, .906, with one shutout. That was a long, slow slide to end the season. It is the asterisk to the comment above that Holtby is arguably the best goalie in the game. And given the uncertain nature of any predictions of any goaltender’s future performance, it will make the start of next season perhaps an anxious one for Caps fans. We will find out if his late season performance was a lesson or a harbinger of things to come.
This year did not measure up, and it cast a shadow over his season and going forward. Consider that over his last 27 appearances – regular and postseason – he was 15-11-1, 2.61, .906, with one shutout. That was a long, slow slide to end the season. It is the asterisk to the comment above that Holtby is arguably the best goalie in the game. And given the uncertain nature of any predictions of any goaltender’s future performance, it will make the start of next season perhaps an anxious one for Caps fans. We will find out if his late season performance was a lesson or a harbinger of things to come.
Grade: B
Photo: Claus Andersen/Getty Images North America
