The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The January portion of the regular season schedule comes to
a close for the Washington Capitals on Wednesday night when they host the
Philadelphia Flyers in a nationally-televised game at Capital One Arena. The
Caps will be looking for a measure of revenge after dropping a 2-1 overtime
decision on this same ice sheet just ten days previously.
The Flyers will be looking to resume the momentum that they
built going into the All-Star Game break, going 8-2-0 in the ten games before
the break. That 8-2-0 record tied the Boston Bruins and Calgary Flames for the
best record in the league (16 standings points) since January 4th, when the
Flyers embarked on their run.
Sean Couturier, who went into the Caps game back on January
21st as one of, if not the hottest player in in the league, has seen his
goal-scoring dry up somewhat. While his total of eight goals over the Flyers’
last ten games still leads the team over that span, he is without a goal in his
last four games. Yet he does have three assists over those four games to give
him an 8-5-13, plus-5, scoring line over that ten-game span. He has been very
much the go-to guy in this run, three of his eight goals being game-winners
(one of them in overtime), his 27.6 percent shooting percentage best on the
team, his 58.3 percent winning percentage on faceoffs leading the club, his
2:15 in shorthanded ice time per game leading all Flyer forwards, and his 21:36
per game in ice time also leading the club’s forwards. Couturier is 6-6-12,
plus-5, in 23 career games against the Capitals.
Shayne Gostisbehere is rebounding from a disappointing
sophomore season with a year that more closely resembles his rookie season in
which he was 17-29-46, plus-8, in 64 games. In 45 games so far this season he
is 9-24-33, plus-1, in 45 games. This puts him on a pace to finish 16-42-58,
plus-2. He has slowed a bit lately, though, with just one point in his last six
games (assist). Getting on the scoreboard appears to matter to the Flyers, for
when Gostisbehere does record a point, the Flyers are 15-5-4 this season, and
they have lost just once in regulation when he recorded a goal (5-1-2). He has
struggled a bit with consistency, at least on a month-to-month basis. After a
1-12-13, plus-3, in 11 games in October, he was 2-4-6, minus-4, in 11 November
games. Then he was 5-5-10, plus-2, in 13 games in December, but thus far in
January he is 1-3-4, even, in 10 games. Gostisbehere is 0-6-6, even, in nine
career games against Washington.
The Flyers do not often have a difficult choice to make in
goal, at least not one based of good performances, but such might be the case
for this first game coming out of the All-Star Game break. Brian Elliott has 46
saves on 49 shots (.939 save percentage) in his last two appearances before the
break, one of them a 27-save effort in the 2-1 overtime win over the Caps on
January 21st. It is an improvement over his previous seven appearances in which
he topped .900 in save percentage just once (.861 overall despite going 4-3-0
in those games). If anything, Elliott seems to be the designated “road” goalie
at the moment, his last four appearances and eight of his last 11 coming
outside of Philadelphia. He does have a better save percentage on the road
(.917) than he does at home (.896), although his road record (10-6-4 in 20
games) is not much different from his home record (9-5-3 in 18 appearances).
The odd statistic here is that Elliott has allowed five shorthanded goals this
season, all of them on the road. He also allowed 16 of his 27 power play goals
against on the road, a 21-11 difference in special team goals allowed on the
road versus at home. Elliott is 8-5-0, 3.05, .895, in 15 career appearances
against the Caps.
On the other hand, Michal Neuvirth has been statistically
superior in the Flyers’ 8-2-0 run, going 3-1-0, 2.08 (more than a goal better
than Elliott’s 3.18), .926. What he has not had is a lot of work on the road,
appearing in only four games away from Philadelphia (1-2-0, 2.14, .927, one
shutout). Only one of his last nine appearances has been on the road, and that
was just a 20-minute stint in which he stopped all eight shots in a 5-1 loss to
the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden on January 16th. His last
decision on the road came on November 2nd, when he stopped all 33 shots he
faced in a 2-0 blanking of the St. Louis Blues. The former Capital netminder is
1-1-0, 3.14, .891, in three career appearances against his old club.
The goaltender situation is complicated further by having
both goaltenders nursing ailments.
Elliott was listed day-to-day with a lower body injury, and Neuvirth was
reported to have a stomach virus.
General Manager Ron Hextall said, “I’m hoping both are able to play.”
If neither could, the duties might fall to Anthony Stolarz, the club’s top
prospect goalie in the AHL. However, he
had surgery on the same knee twice in five months and has not played this
season. Alex Lyon and Dustin Tokarski
have split duties with Lehigh Valley, the Flyers’ affiliate in the AHL.
1. Even when a team
is going well, you get hints that the run might be coming to an end. Consider
the Flyers’ 8-2-0 run of late. They started it with four straight wins,
outscoring opponents by a 21-11 margin, all of the wins by multi-goal margins.
However, in going 4-2-0 in their last six contests, they have been outscored by
opponents, 16-13, and three of their wins came in overtime. Both of their
losses were by 5-1 margins (to the Rangers and to Tampa Bay).
2. Perhaps one factor
in the Flyers’ success of late is the time spent on special teams. They have
spent 54:10 over their last ten games on the man advantage, and their 28.1
percent power play conversion rate is fifth in that span. And, although their
penalty kill over those ten games is just 74.1 percent (21st over that period),
they have spent just 42:50 killing penalties, and they have a plus-1 special
teams goal differential (nine power play goals scored plus a shorthanded goal,
seven power play goals allowed plus two shorthanded goals allowed).
3. The Flyers have
picked up their pace in taking penalties. They have 100 penalty minutes over
their last ten games, almost half of them accounted for by three players: Scott
Laughlin (21), Wayne Simmonds (12), and Michael Raffl (11).
4. One luxury the
Flyers have had in their 8-2-0 run is spreading time out among their
defensemen. Of the six defensemen to play in at least nine of the ten games,
none have averaged more than 18:43 in even strength ice time (Ivan Provorov)
and none have less than 15:19 in even strength ice time (Brandon Manning).
5. You wonder how the
Flyers have cobbled together this 8-2-0 run. Not 5-on-5 shot attempt shares
(50.46 percent overall/14th in that span), not 5-on-5 zone start shares (45.36
percent/25th), not 5-on-5 shooting percentage (7.5 percent/14th), not 5-on-5
save percentage (.925/17th), and their 5-on-5 PDO is exactly 1000 (all numbers from
NHL.com).
1. The Caps go into
this game with a three-game home losing streak (0-2-1), tying their longest of
the season (October 10-21). The difference is that all three of the losses in
the earlier streak were in regulation.
2. Four of the Caps’ last
eight home games ended in extra time – three in overtime (two wins, one loss)
and one in a Gimmick (a win).
3. The Caps are three
points away from having six defensemen with double digits in points. Christian
Djoos (3-6-9) needs one point to get there, and Brooks Orpik (0-8-8) needs two.
In other defenseman double digit milestone news, if Djoos takes a penalty, the
Caps will have six defensemen with double digits in penalty minutes (Djoos has
eight).
4. Speaking of
defensemen, John Carlson has 17 of the 18 points recorded on the power play by
Capitals’ defensemen this season (3-14-17). Dmitry Orlov has the other point,
an assist.
5. If the Caps take a
lead to the first intermission, you might be able to turn in early. Only the
New York Islanders (14-0-0) have a better record than Washington when taking a
lead after 20 minutes (18-0-1/.947).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Philadelphia: Michael Raffl
Only two players born in Austria have more games played in
the NHL than the Flyers’ Michael Raffl (318): Thomas Vanek (934) and Michael
Grabner (522). https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/birthplaces.cgi?country=AT&province=&state=
He is also third on that list in points (108), trailing Vanek (732) and Grabner
(239), although he could be caught by a big game from the Caps’ Andre
Burakovsky (104 points). Granted, the list of players born in Austria is not a
big one, but Raffl has carved out a solid career over the last five years in
Philadelphia, which isn’t bad for an undrafted free agent signed by the Flyers
in 2013.
What he has been unable to do, though, is to recapture the level of production in his sophomore season in 2014-2015 when he had 21 goals in 67 games. He had just 21 goals in 134 games over the following two seasons. This year, he seems to have at least taken a step toward that higher level of production with nine goals in 49 games, topping his eight-goal total of last season in 52 games. He has been chipping in some secondary scoring in the Flyers’ 8-2-0 record over their last ten games with points in five of the games (3-2-5), and his plus-7 over that span is best on the team. In 17 career games against the Capitals, Raffl is 3-3-6, plus-1.
What he has been unable to do, though, is to recapture the level of production in his sophomore season in 2014-2015 when he had 21 goals in 67 games. He had just 21 goals in 134 games over the following two seasons. This year, he seems to have at least taken a step toward that higher level of production with nine goals in 49 games, topping his eight-goal total of last season in 52 games. He has been chipping in some secondary scoring in the Flyers’ 8-2-0 record over their last ten games with points in five of the games (3-2-5), and his plus-7 over that span is best on the team. In 17 career games against the Capitals, Raffl is 3-3-6, plus-1.
Washington: Madison Bowey
The Capitals had hopes this season for rookie defensemen
Madison Bowey and Christian Djoos, the former a right-handed defenseman and the
latter a left-handed shot. These were to be the first in the next generation of defensemen to take their place with the Caps. At the moment, though, their
respective handedness has some relevance as the rumor mill starts to
grind in earnest with the trading deadline approaching. One such line of rumorizing has former
Capital Mike Green – a right-handed shot currently playing for the Detroit Red
Wings – as a possible target for the Caps.
This could conceivably bump Bowey to the press box, much as the Caps’
acquisition of Kevin Shattenkirk last season at the deadline pushed Nate
Schmidt out of the lineup for stretches.
Last season, Shattenkirk was a luxury on a loaded team (a
fat lot of good it did, though). This
season, Green – or a similar defenseman – might be a necessity. It’s not that Bowey has been bad, but he has
not been able to provide consistency (not unusual for a rookie) and has had
limited minutes (13:30 per game). One might argue that Bowey's numbers suffer from his pairing for large chunks of minutes with Brooks Orpik, but perhaps
the question and concern going forward is one of whether the Caps want to put
two rookies – Bowey and Djoos – in the playoff crucible this spring. If the Caps were a middling contender, a club
that might make the lower half of the postseason draw but likely a one-and-done
team if they did make it, then giving both experience might not be as much a
concern. But the Caps are a division
leader, by the second-largest margin of the four division leaders, and might be
closer to making a deep postseason run than folks might have thought back in
October. It makes adding a piece like
Green, perhaps at the expense of Bowey this season, something to consider. Bowey has picked up his scoring pace a bit in
recent games with four points in his last ten games (all assists; he is looking
for his first NHL goal), and he is plus-2 in his last eight games after not
posting a plus game in 21 consecutive games (minus-5) dating back to November
12th. He does not have a point
and is minus-3 in two games against the Flyers this season.
In the end…
The Metropolitan Division is cannibalizing one another.
Seven teams are separated by just six points in their intra-divisional records
at the All-Star Game break:
This game will open a stretch in which the Caps play four
division opponents over their next five games – the Flyers, at Pittsburgh
against the Penguins, and after a home date against the Vegas Golden Knights a
home-and-home set of games against the Columbus Blue Jackets. If we can dream a
bit, a sweep of those divisional contests would all but assure the Caps of a
playoff spot if not the top spot in the division. Conversely, losing all four
would make a tight division that much tighter just before the Caps go off on a
four-game road trip in mid-February that will start a stretch run in which 16
of the Caps’ last 27 games are played on the road. It puts a premium on winning
games like Wednesday night’s contest against the Flyers.
Capitals 4 – Flyers 3
