The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
After a second consecutive third period come-from-behind
win, the Washington Capitals head to Arizona for the second of their four-game
road trip to face the Coyotes. The Caps,
who came back to defeat the Anaheim Ducks and Dallas Stars in overtime after
trailing at the 40-minute mark in each game, will be looking for their fifth straight win,
ninth in ten games, and 12th in their last 14 games when they
descend on Glendale.
Meanwhile, the Coyotes are dragging a 7-24-5 record into
this contest, the worst in the NHL. It
is a team that cannot score (30th in scoring offense) and cannot
defend (30th in scoring defense).
Worse, they will bring a seven-game losing streak into this contest
(0-6-1).
In that seven-game losing streak the Coyotes have a total of
nine goals scored. Only Derek Stepan has
more than one (two). Stepan was traded
to Arizona by the New York Rangers at the 2017 entry draft last June along with
goaltender Antti Raanta for defenseman Anthony DeAngelo and the Coyotes’ first
round pick in that draft, with which the Rangers took center Lias Andersson. It has not been a fast start in the desert
for Stepan, whose 6-14-20 scoring line in 36 games so far is off in terms of
average goals, assists, and games from his last season with the Rangers (he was
17-38-55 in 81 games). In this
seven-game losing streak he is 2-1-3 and a whopping minus-11, worst in the
league over that span. He does have
points in 10 of the 15 home games in which he has played so far (4-10-14,
minus-3). In 29 career games against
Washington, Stepan is 6-7-13, minus-3.
Clayton Keller leads the team in overall scoring over their
seven-game losing streak, going 1-3-4, minus-3.
Having appeared in only three games for Arizona last season, Keller
remains rookie-eligible this season, and he is among the top-ranked rookies in
offensive production. His 12 goals ranks
second to Vancouver’s Brock Boeser, while his 26-point total ranks third,
behind Boeser (32) and the New York Islanders’ Mathew Barzal (30). He also happens to lead all rookie forwards
in ice time per game (18:48), although his minus-20 for the season is worst
among that same group of rookie forwards, and not by a little (teammate
Christian Fischer is minus-12 in 34 games).
Keller has a goal and is a plus-1 in his only career game against the
Capitals.
The Coyotes have gone through five goalies this season so
far. Somewhere in there is a number one
goalie, and that is probably Antti Raanta, at least at the moment. He has appeared in 17 of the Coyotes’ 36
games to date, and if anything his numbers are respectable, given his team’s
place in the standings. His goals
against average (2.82) ranks 28th among 50 goalies with at least 500
minutes played this season, and his save percentage (.916) ranks 19th. He has been slightly better at home
(2.76/.917). However, he does not have a
win since November 20th in what is a case of poor goal support. In five appearances since then, Raanta is
0-4-0 (one no-decision), 2.62, .926. He
has faced a lot of rubber in that span though, averaging 35.5 shots faced per
60 minutes. Raanta is 1-1-0, 2.59, .906
in three career appearances against the Caps.
1. Arizona has one
win at home in regulation time this season, a 5-0 win over the New Jersey Devils
on December 2nd. They are
3-11-1 overall on home ice. No team has
more losses in regulation time on home ice than the Coyotes.
2. The Coyotes have
one skater among 27 to dress this season who is a “plus” player, and he –
defenseman Joel Hanley – is plus-1 in four games played.
3. Arizona doesn’t
blow people out, even when they win.
Among their seven wins, they have five one-goal decisions. Two of their
wins were by three or more goals, tied for second-fewest in the league (Buffalo
has none).
4. Shot differenial
hardly seem to matter to the Coyotes.
They have three wins when out-shooting opponents, and they have three
wins when they are out-shot. They also
happen to have 11 losses in regulation when out-shooting opponents and 12
losses when out-shot. They are 1-1 when
the shots are even.
5. There are 29 teams
in the league with a winning record when scoring first in games. Arizona is not among them. Their 5-10-3 record when scoring first (.278
winning percentage) is worst in the league by quite a bit (Buffalo is
6-5-5/.375). At least the Coyotes have
scored first in half of their games.
1. Washington has
been rather consistent, at least in a rankings context, in the
“who-scores-first” category. They are
fifth in winning percentage when scoring first (15-2-1/.833) and sixth in
winning percentage when scored upon first (7-10-0/.412).
2. Odd fact…the Caps
have as many wins when outshot by their opponents (13) as they do total games
in which they outshot their opponents (13).
3. About those second
periods of games. The Caps are a top-ten
team in goals scored in the first periods of games (35/5th) and in
the third periods of games (38/10th), but they rank just tied for 18th
in second period goals scored (33).
4. The Caps have 13
players with at least ten points so far this season. Next in line is Chandler Stephenson (9), who
is 30th in rookie scoring, despite playing in only 25 games to
date. The odd think is, he barely has as
many shots on goal (11) as points.
5. The Caps are one
of three teams in the NHL who have two defensemen to have played in at least 29
games without recording a goal. The
other teams are Boston and Carolina; the Caps defensemen are Brooks Orpik and
Madison Bowey. Why do we think this will
change on Friday night?
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Arizona: Oliver Ekman-Larsson
No team in the NHL has a lower club salary cap hit than the
Arizona Coyotes ($58.6 million). Within
that salary structure, defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson is, at a $5.5 million
cap hit through next season, manageable at worst and a bargain at best. The 26-year old, a former sixth-overall draft
pick of the Coyotes (2009), has already played in 530 regular season games in
an eight-year career. He has been
durable, missing only 12 games in seven seasons as a full-time player, and he
has been productive. In those seven
seasons as a full time player, he ranks fifth among defensemen in goals scored
and 16th in total points. He
also has the misfortune to have played for a team that struggled, reflected in
his minus-70 in those seasons, tied for third-worst among 93 defensemen who
played in 400 or more games in those seven seasons. Ekman-Larsson has been in a scoring rut
lately, having an eight-game streak without a point just broken with an assist
in a 3-2 loss to the Florida Panthers on Tuesday. In ten career games against Washington,
Ekman-Larsson is 2-4-6, even.
Washington: Tom Wilson
Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and John Carlson have been
around for a while. It would be no
surprise that among current Capitals, those three top the list of current Caps
who have faced the Coyotes the most in a Capitals uniform. What might be surprising is that Tom Wilson
is fourth on that list, having played nine games against Arizona. Except for his seven points in nine games
against the Chicago Blackhawks, Wilson’s four points against the Coyotes in
those nine games is tied for his second-highest total against a Western
Conference team. Half of that point
total is the result of a 1-1-2 effort in a 6-5 loss to the Coyotes on November
2, 2014, and he has only one assist in three career games against the Coyotes
in Arizona. He has been coming on
lately, though. In his last eight games
he is 3-5-8, plus-9. But it has been
entirely a home performance for Wilson.
In those eight games he is 0-0-0, even, in three road games. He is 1-3-4, minus-1, in nine career games
against the Coyotes.
In the end…
On paper, this is a game the Caps could, should, and will
win. Arizona’s leading goal scorer,
Clayton Keller (12), would rank second on the Caps, but there is not another
Coyote in double figures (the Caps have four such players). Keller has 26 points, and that would be tied
for fourth on the Caps with John Carlson, but no other Coyote has more than 20
points (the Caps have five). Braden
Holtby (should he get the call in the first of a back-to-back) has allowed 20
goals in eight games in the month of December.
Arizona has allowed 21 goals in its last six games, all losses in
regulation. And if the Caps need a bit
more incentive, there is that 6-3 whacking the Coyotes applied last March 31st
in Glendale, jumping out to a 3-0 lead barely 13 minutes into the game and
coasting in from there. Except for that
wild 8-7 overtime loss to the Penguins in January last season, it was the most
goals the Caps allowed in a game over the 2016-2017 season.
The Coyotes are having a hard time of it this season, but no NHL team is a pushover. The moment you show one disrespect, or look ahead to the next opponent or holiday shopping, it will come back to haunt you. But the Caps are healthy again. They’re hot. You would think they would want to finish the
pre-Christmas portion of the season on a jolly note. This will help.
Capitals 6 – Coyotes 2
