Sittin' at the end of the bar...

- Much has been made about President Barack Obama's remarks in Moscow expressing pleasure about the contributions of a certain Russian to American -- and specifically Washington -- culture. Well, here's a nod to Alexander Semin (98 goals in his last three seasons) and Semyon Varlamov (11-6-1, 2.49, .918, two shutouts in his combined inaugural regular and playoff season), a couple of up-and-coming Russians in D.C. We're pleased to have them here, too.

-- What's with the contracts for defensemen? First, Tampa Bay gives Mattias Ohlund a seven year deal (he'll be 33 years old on opening night). Now, the Flyers have given Chris Pronger a seven year contract extension ($34.7 million) that will keep him as a Flyer property until Pronger is 42 yearsold. And, the deal is front weighted. Seems the NHL has finally learned the NFL trick of adding useless years to the end of contracts to smooth the cap hits on big deals.

-- So Joe Sakic is hanging up his skates. We've always thought of him as sort of the Cal Ripken of hockey. If you see him once, you might be inclined to ask "what's all the hype about?" Flash has not been his stock in trade over a 20-year career. But if you see him often enough, you get it. His is the attention-to-detail and understated skill that wins hockey games and championships. He is, in the best sense of the word, a "winner." And, like Ripken, he's done it with one franchise, an unheard of accomplishment in this day and age. Your hall of fame plaque is waiting, Joe.

-- And if you're wondering what a Caps "plan" looks like when it matures, look at Detroit (which has been doing it for more than a decade -- an argument for patience). Guys are up for big contracts, but if they're not part of the core, the Wings wave goodbye. Ken Holland locked up Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Daysyuk, and Johan Franzen, who will be teammates at least through 2013-2014, when Datsyuk's deal expires. But Marian Hossa (12 years/$62.8 million with Chicago) and Mikael Samuelsson (three years/$7.5 million with Vancouver) are allowed to walk to make way for young guys coming through the system. Even Ty Conklin, a more than serviceable backup goalie (two years/$2.6 million with St. Louis), is bid adieu. To replace him, the Red Wings will see what Jimmy Howard can do, a goalie who has served a 187 game apprenticeship in the AHL awaiting his chance. And the Wings will see what guys like Jonathan Ericsson, Darren Helm, and Justin Abdelkader can do with more responsibility. The Wings don't rebuild, they reload.

Chops Broiled in Iowa

One and done... to a crisp.

The American Hockey League has announced that the Iowa Chops -- rebranded to much fanfare one year ago today -- have been "involuntarily suspended" by the league based on an inability "to remedy certain violations of the provisions of the league’s Constitution and By-Laws." The Des Moines Register has more on the story...

"[AHL President and CEO Dave] Andrews declined to cite the specific violation, but the Des Moines Register reported last month that the club had used the franchise as collateral to obtain a loan in March 2008 from a North Carolina branch of Wachovia Bank. Records obtained from Polk County have disclosed the loan amounted to $1.99 million and was used to cover operating costs.Andrews has said such loans are not permitted under league rules."

The suspension ends any hope of a 2009-2010 Chops season in the AHL. Talk about your troubled franchises. They started operations as the Iowa Stars in 2005-2006 (transplanted from Louisville, where they were the "Panthers," an affiliate of the Florida Panthers). Since moving to Iowa, the Stars (which became the "Chops" this past year) have had affiliations with the Dallas Stars, Edmonton Oilers, and Anaheim Ducks, the last of these ending this past May. When the new name was announced last July, team owner Kirby Schlegel noted that the new name "perfectly represents our vision of the new team... It illustrates Iowa’s agricultural heritage while also playing into the definition of ‘chops’, having nerve, resilience and staying power." Staying power appears to be one year, absent any corrective measures to restore the franchise to normal business operations.

It makes a Caps fan (not to mention a Hershey Bears fan) thankful for the stability and tradition a couple of hours up the road.

Perhaps as a function of the Iowa situation, the AHL is realigning its divisions. The new alignment has this look...

According to the AHL, Hershey will play the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins 12 times in the 2009-2010 season. Familiarity, as they say, breeds contempt.

Scratch Scratch Scratch

The unrestricted free agent signing period in the NHL is hockey’s version of perverted hope. Just one more piece (or two or three or four), and your team can compete for a playoff spot or, be still my beating heart, a Stanley Cup championship.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t often work out that way. But it doesn’t stop some teams from going over the top with their signings. Every year, it seems, there is one signing (ok, at least one) that gets one to scratching their head – what are they thinking?

A couple of years ago, it was St. Louis – a team that finished 15 points out of the playoff eight in the Western Conference, lavishing Paul Kariya with a three-year, $18 million contract. Kariya, playing for a weak team that would finish worse off than it did in the year before he was signed by the Blues, would have a decent year, all things considered – 16-49-65, -10 – but was hardly a difference maker on a club that finished with 79 standings points (two fewer than in 2006-2007), good for 14th in the West. Not much return on that investment, and one could probably see it coming when it happened.

Last year, it was Wade Redden, once a promising defenseman for a strong Ottawa Senator team, but whose production slipped after fellow defenseman Zdeno Chara left the Senators for Boston. It made for another head-scratching moment when he was signed by the New York Rangers as an unrestricted free agent to a six-year/$39 million deal. While the Rangers held on late to secure a playoff spot (after a 10-2-1 October), Redden struggled to a 26-point season (his lowest point total since his second year, in 1997-1998) and a minus-5 (worst of his career), often earning the wrath of fans and news columnists in the Big Apple. It is a contract we’re sure the Rangers would like to unload at this point.

This year there are a number of candidates for top head-scratching deal. There is the five-year/$37.5 million deal signed by Marian Gaborik with the New York Rangers. Gaborik has played in 207 of a possible 328 regular season games since the lockout and is coming off a season in which he played only 17 games and had hip surgery. We can, however, understand the thin thread of logic on which this deal hangs. The Rangers finished 28th in scoring for the 2008-2009 season (2.44 goals/game) and amazingly, given the reputation for weak defense the Washington Capitals had, managed only 1.57 goals/game in the seven game opening round playoff loss to the Caps. Gaborik, when healthy, is perhaps one of the top-five offensive talents in the game.

However, a bigger head-scratcher might be the deal signed yesterday by Alex Kovalev with the Ottawa Senators. Although the term is agreeable for a 36-year old forward (two years), the $5 million a year seems more than a bit odd. In his four full seasons in Montreal, Kovalev topped 30 goals only once and topped 65 points only once. On an 82-game basis, Kovalev averaged 28-43-71, -2. But except for his big 2007-2008 year (35-49-84, +18, in 82 games), he had a rather disappointing stay in Montreal overall.

That Ottawa would spend so heavily on a player who isn’t likely to play on a playoff team in either of the next two years (especially if Dany Heatley is unloaded for prospects in trade), and to give him a $500,000 raise to boot, well... it's a head-scratcher.

There are other head-scratchers out there… Atlanta giving $4 million a year to a player who has yet to net 30 goals or reach 60 points in a season (Nik Antropov)… Tampa Bay giving a 33-year old defenseman (on opening night) a seven-year contract (Mattias Ohlund)… Toronto giving a player with one full season in the NHL (20-28-48, minus-8) a three-year/$8.7 million deal (Mikhail Grabovski).

You might have your own head-scratchers to add. This summer, be careful… you might end up bald from all the head-scratching you’ll do.

Happy Independence Day

We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these united Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States... And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our sacred Honor.

-- In Congress, July 4, 1776, The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen United States of America

Say WHAT?!

In 1981, Joe DiMaggio gave his opinion to Sports Illustrated on the escalation of salaries in major league baseball...

"If I were sitting down with George Steinbrenner (to discuss a salary) and based on what Dave Winfield got for his statistics, I'd have to say, 'George, you and I are about to become partners.'"

That quote came to mind upon reading that Mikhail Grabovski was signed to a three-year/$8.7 million contract to re-up with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Next summer, Nicklas Backstrom is going to sit down with Ted Leonsis and raise the possibility of a partnership, if this is what a 25-year old with one full season played in the NHL (48 points) -- the only one he's spent in Toronto -- and barely 100 games of NHL experience is getting.

The Meaning of Knuble

OK, so the Caps got a right winger with size and a nose for the net. That's descriptive, to a point. But inserting Knuble into the Capitals lineup has, one would think, quantitative meaning. It does.

First, that "nose for the net" thing. If you look at the Caps at 5-on-5 last year, only Eric Fehr (among right wingers) shot the puck from a shorter average distance (29.5 feet) than Knuble (30.0 feet). If Fehr is the right wing in waiting -- the guy expected some day to be that winger with a nose for the net -- he's going to have a good role model to observe in Knuble.

Then there is the matter of Knuble being a capable first-line right wing, a replacement for the departed Viktor Kozlov. Kozlov was a player of considerable skill, a skill that too often went unexpressed. In 148 games with the Caps, Kozlov (skating largely with the top line, matched with Alex Ovechkin and either Nicklas Backstrom or Sergei Fedorov) went 29-66-95, +19. In his last two seasons, Knuble played in all 164 games and went 56-46-102, +2, playing along side of talent that arguably didn't match what Kozlov played with.

How Knuble might feast in this environment, though, is reflected in shots. Kozlov was and probably is a better, smoother puck handler. His ability to lug the puck into the offensive zone under control and maintain possession was a valuable commodity. The flip side of that, however, is that Kozlov really didn't shoot the puck that much (certainly not much for a player of his skill level). His 3.18 shot attempts-per-game (shots on goal, shots blocked, shots missed) was only sixth among forwards on the team. On the other hand, Knuble averaged 3.65 shot attempts per game last year (15 percent higher than Kozlov). Part of this difference is ice time (Knuble averaged about 2.5 minutes more in average ice time than Kozlov), but Knuble's presence might take some of the pressure off of Alex Ovechkin from having to launch (not that he's against this sort of thing) the 9.9 shot attempts-per-game he had last season.

Then there is the power play and the man Knuble is likely to replace here. That would seem to be Brooks Laich, and that could be a win-win. Here is why. Knuble is adept at planting himself in the goalie's line of vision and capitalizing on tips and rebounds. He was fourth among Flyer forwards last year in power play scoring last year, third in goals (11-9-20). Laich was also fourth in power play scoring among forwards, third in goals (9-15-24). What Knuble's addition can do is provide Laich with opportunities on the second power play unit -- presumably against weaker penalty killers -- to perform the same role, parking in front and collecting loose change. It's worth noting here, too, that Knuble's 11-9-20 compares favorably to Kozlov's 2-13-15 on the power play.

There is the matter of Knuble's post-season production, or lack of it. It has been mentioned as a drawback to this signing. In 41 career post-season games, he is 8-11-19, -9. Fair enough; that's not exactly lighting it up. On the other hand, Kozlov -- whose roster spot Knuble assumes -- was 4-8-12, -6 in 35 career post-season games. Not much difference there. But here's the thing. Kozlov was a slow starter. In his first five appearances in the playoffs, he was 0-6-6, -11 in 21 games. He was 4-2-6, +5 in 14 games this past post-season with the Caps.

Knuble's path is similar. In his first four appearance in the playoffs (with the Red Wings and Bruins), he was 2-3-5, -7 in 17 games. In three playoff appearances with the Flyers, he was 6-8-14, -2 in 24 games. Not as large an improvement as Kozlov, perhaps (although one might always question if that was a one-shot wonder for Kozlov), but steadier.

There is also the matter of consistency. In his four years with the Flyers, Knuble played in all 82 games three times. He averaged 28.5 goals a year. If you take his 2006-2007 season, in which he missed 18 games, and convert his 24 goals scored to an equivalent 82-game pace, then his four seasons with the Flyers had goal totals of 34, 31, 29, and 27. There is the hint of a downward trend there, but it is also rather consistent.

And, with that goal scoring, he's accurate. In his four seasons with the Flyers, he never had a shooting percentage worse than 15.0 percent. In the last four seasons, only one Cap has bettered 15 percent more than once (Alexander Semin, who has done it twice).

Knuble brings attributes and skills that the Caps simply haven't had and that they have desperately needed -- size (and an inclination to use it), an ability to score from in close, consistency, reliability. We read that he has been a model teammate in Philadelphia, which can't hurt in a locker room where chemistry seems to be an essential ingredient to success.

Is Mike Knuble worth the extra $300,000 a year that he will be paid above that which Viktor Kozlov was paid? Today, in the beginning of July, you'd have to say he was a bargain. But grades don't get handed out before the first day of class, either. This deal works if, all other things equal, the Caps go further in the playoffs than they did this past season. But right now, Knuble looks to be the right fit for this team to achieve precisely that aim. He is that "next tier" of free agent that seems more often to make a difference than the guys who grab the headlines on the first day of signings.

The Only Commentary on Free Agents You'll Ever Need

As it happens (or as it happens we hear about it)...

The Sedins re-sign with Vancouver for 5/$30.5M apiece.

Caps impact (1 being a gnat landing on Don Cherry's ass, 10 being Sidney Crosby traded to Washington): 1.5

- Oh, please, like they were going anywhere. This crap happens every year somewhere. Will so-and-so pillar of the franchise, who grew up in it, take off for greener pastures? This year, in stereo (you remember that, don't you?).
***

Dwayne Roloson is "testing the market."

Now, wouldn't Jose Theodore look great in blue and orange?
***

Mattias Ohlund to Tampa for 7/$26.25M

Caps impact: 4

Makes Tampa Bay marginally more difficult to play against, but the Lightning need a lot of help in a lot of places, and the term will kill them. Seven years? For a guy who will be 33 years old on opening night? Even if the contract is heavily front loaded (as Darren Dreger is blogging at TSN), it seems a bit much.
***

Radek Dvorak re-signs with Florida for 2/$3.4M

Caps impact: 2

$1.7 a year for what amounts to a 35-point-a-year player seems a bit much, but maybe Florida had to do something after moving Bouwmeester, and all in all the term and dollars seem manageable. We're guessing they'll have to do a lot more, though.
***

Colton Orr to Toronto for 4/$4M

Caps impact: 1

Brian Burke signs tough guy... call CNN. Maybe Ottawa can sign Donald Brashear so he can beat the snot out of Orr six times a year. Not seeing where this is worth almost a doubling of pay (he was a $537,000 cap hit last season).
***

Florida re-signs David Booth for 6/$25.5M

Caps impact: 4

Booth is a nice player, even for $4.25 million a year. His points scored progression has gone 10-40-60 in his three seasons. He might not be a "core" player in the same way a Backstrom or a Green is in Washington, but he is a "foundation" player that a team can build with. Better to sign a home-grown for this money than import talent.
***

Craig Anderson to Colorado for 2/$3.6M

Caps impact: 4

Tomas Vokoun has been the man in Florida for the past two years, but Anderson gave the Panthers 48 games of solid goaltending -- he might have been every bit as good as Vokoun. Certainly he was as efficient over his fewer appearances. Moving him out of the Conference raises the question of who backs up Vokoun. We can't imagine he'll provide as much solid relief as did Anderson.
***

Matt Walker to Tampa Bay for 4/$6.8M

Caps impact: 5

The "impact" here might be on any arbitration for Shaone Morrisonn. Last year, with Chicago, he was 1-13-14, +7 in 65 games, 0-2-2, -4 in 17 playoff games. Morrisonn was 3-10-13, +4 in 72 games, 0-1-1, +1 in 14 playoff games.
***

Ty Conklin to St. Louis for 2/$2.6M

Caps effect: 1

Nothing to see here as far as the Caps are concerned. But Jimmy Howard had better be ready; he'll be backing up a 37-year old in Detroit (Chris Osgood) who didn't have the best of regular seasons.
***

Marian Hossa to Chicago for 12/$62.8 million

Caps effect: 4

Hossa has an odd way about him in terms of follow-up. First, he bolts Pittsburgh to join the team he lost to the Cup finals, then he loses with his new team to the team he left. Now, he leaves Detroit for the up-and-coming division rival. He will be 41 when this deal is over, if it lasts that long. And, the deal is very heavily front loaded -- $59.3 million of it paid in the first eight years ($7.41M/year) according to TSN (updated for new numbers). But Chicago had cap space aplenty, too. It's risky paying this kind of money and term for a talented player, but one who just happens to have seen his points drop from 100 a couple of years ago in Atlanta to 66 and 71 the last two years. Then again, it might just guarantee Chicago a spot in the Cup finals (where Hossa has appeared in the past two seasons... and lost). He's the big prize in this free agent class -- the other blocks should start to fall into place.
***

Dwayne Roloson to the Islanders for 2/$5.0 million

Caps effect: 3

Guess they weren't bringing Joey MacDonald back. Guess they're thinking Rick DiPietro won't be back (for opening night, at least). He's an upgrade to any goalie who played more than one game with the Islanders last year. But he's a patch. Besides, everyone will be watching Tavares, anyway.
***

Mike Knuble to Washington for 2/$5.6M

Caps impact: 7

A right winger who can score. According to NHL.com, the Caps had 37 goals in 250 man-games out of the right wing position last season. Knuble had 27 in 82 games. He's had at least 20 goals in each of the last six seasons (62 of his 165 goals in that span scored on the power play). And, he is the only top-six forward the Caps have who can reliably plant himself at the doorstep to collect rebounds. Is he the best forward in this class? Not by a long-shot. But this is about something the Caps don't address first in a draft, where they go (or so they say) for the best available player. This signing is need, pure and simple. The money is a bit higher than expected, but it is still a value signing.
***

Donald Brashear to New York Rangers for 2/$2.8M

Caps impact: 5

Oh, the irony. Brashear joins the team he done wrong in the playoffs (twice) to earn a six-game suspension. He replaces one of the guys he wronged -- Colton Orr (with whom Brashear was involved in a pre-game altercation). And, he gets a raise and a two-year deal on top of it. Will it matter? Well, it will be interesting to see Brashear playing the Caps four times (if he dresses for all of them). His toughness will endear him to coach John Tortorella. His production on the fourth line won't. You'd have to think this is his last big payday (he'll be 37 on opening night). It's a big one, given his job description.
***

Scott Niedermayer re-signs with Anaheim for 1/$6.0M

Caps impact: 1

Major yawn. It was Anaheim or nowhere, but losing Chris Pronger attached some more urgency to this signing, even with Ryan Whitney starting the year there and a decent prospect in Luca Sbisa coming in on defense.
***

Joel Ward re-signs with Nashville for 2/$3.0M

Caps impact: 1

Not bad for an late blooming (28 years old) undrafted free agent to grabbed the first rung of the ladder with the Houston Aeros in the AHL, then went to Minnesota as a free agent, then to Nashville... as a free agent. He had a nice year with the Predators last year (17-18-35, +1 in 79 games). Is it a bit much for a player with only one full NHL season? Maybe, but it's also rewarding one's own.
***

Brian Boucher to Philadelphia for 2/$1.85M

Caps impact: 3

A low-risk signing. He's familiar (103 career games for the Flyers from 1999-2002), he's competent (12-6-3, 2.18, .917 in San Jose last year). Given Philly's goaltending situation, he might get at least that many decisions next season. Alex Ovechkin might start practicing trick shots.
***

Jaroslav Spacek to Montreal for 3/$11.5M

Caps impact: 3

Montreal -- on paper -- should never have finished eighth in the East last year. But they did, and they were likely to lose defenseman Mike Komisarek (they did, later, to Toronto). They needed something to plug a hole. Spacek is certainly a competent defenseman playing in 205 games with the Sabres over the last three years (22-76-98, +29 in that span). But he's not going to have the physical edge Komisarek had.
***

Nikolai Khabibulin to Edmonton for 4/$15M

Caps effect: 2

Well, $3.75 million a year for four years for a goalie who was an unmitigated bust in his first two years of a big contract in Chicago is a bit surprising, but Edmonton didn't have a lot of choices. With Dwayne Roloson gone to Long Island and Jeff Deslauriers looking like the last man standing between the pipes, well... enter The Bulin Wall. He might end up being this coming season's Jose Theodore, even after a big year in Chicago... in the walk year of his big deal with the Blackhawks (convenient how that works out).
***

Erik Cole re-signs with Carolina for 2/$5.8M

Caps effect: 5

Cole was 16-11-27, minus-3 in 63 games with Edmonton last year (three of the goals came in a hat trick against the Caps on January 13th). Then he was sent back to Carolina, for whom he played 418 games before heading to the Canadian prairie. He finished 2-13-15, plus-3 in 17 games. You'd have to think (or like to think, if you're a Hurricane fan) that Cole knew where "home" was and signed on the dotted line. The Caps aren't going to like seeing him six times next year.
***

Scott Clemmensen to Florida for 3/$3.6M

Caps effect: 5

A little surprising he'd land here, given the job he did as an emergency number one replacement for Martin Brodeur in New Jersey last year (25-13-1, 2.39, .917). He comes in behind an established goalie in Tomas Vokoun, but might even be an upgrade to the departed Craig Anderson in a backup role (if his 2008-2009 season wasn't a fluke). Last year was the first in six seasons that he appeared in more than 13 games. He'll get more than 13 games in Florida, but he wouldn't seem likely to be the number one there, either.
***

Ian Laperriere to Philadelphia for 3/$3.5M

Caps effect: 6

It's as much that Laperriere didn't come to Washington as it is he ended up on a team the Caps are likely to battle for a playoff spot. The Caps needed a physical edge, and Laperriere might have provided it. He will do it for Philly for the seemingly cheap price of $1.17 million/year.
***

Michael Rupp to Pittsburgh for 2/$1.65M

Caps effect: 3

This looks like the sort of "under-the-radar" sort of acquisition that is making a reputation for Ray Shero. He will not contribute much by way of offense, but he will be a physical presence in the lower half of the forward lines.
***

Hal Gill to Montreal for 2/$4.5M

Caps effect: 4

The Canadiens needed to fill a physical hole with the departure of Mike Komisarek. The question will be whether Hal Gill is going to be that guy. Gill has -- or perhaps more accurately, had -- an ability to use his size to stifle more offensively skilled players such as Jaromir Jagr -- when he was with the Caps, for instance -- or even Alex Ovechkin, to a degree. But Gill is getting some age on him, too. Still, he stays in the conference, and the Caps will have to deal with him four times a year for the next two years.
***

Kent Huskins re-signs with San Jose for 2/$3.4M

Caps effect: 1

Another of those "do right by your own" sorts of deal, one supposes. It might be a little surprising -- $1.7 million a year -- for a guy who didn't play last year after December 31st (33 games altogether). He did have a fine 2007-2008 year for the Ducks, so they've seen close-up what he can do.
***

Mike Cammalleri to Montreal for 5/$30.0M

Caps effect: 4

Not that the Caps were likely to splurge on a big name FA center, but Cammalleri was one that some fans might have envisioned in a red sweater. But now he gets to skate in Verizon Center twice a year, anyway. Montreal sure isn't being shy about signings. But they seem to be shrinking in the process.
***

Greg Zanon to Minnesota for 3/$5.8M

Caps effect: 4

Could be another of those that has a market-setting effect for a guy like Shaone Morrisonn for the Caps. More of a stay-at-home type who would be a pretty solid addition wherever he ended up.
***

Mike Komisarek to Toronto for 5/$22.5M

Caps effect: 3

Now Toronto gets even more difficult to play against. Pavel Kubina was the only defenseman the Maple Leafs had last year passing for a defenseman with an edge, and that wasn't going to work for Brian Burke (in fact, Kubina wasn't going to work for Burke -- he was shipped to Atlanta in a deal that had another edgy defenseman -- Garnet Exelby -- going to Toronto). If you discount Jay Bouwmeester as a defenseman moved in a trade, Komisarek might have been the top defenseman who was likely to change teams (that is, not including Scott Niedermayer).
***

Steve Sullivan re-signs with Nashville for 2/$7.5M

Caps effect: 1

Maybe a bit of a surprise that he's staying in Nashville, but it seemed fitting for one of the better stories carrying over from last year when Sullivan returned from almost two years lost to injury to play well in 41 games and win the Masterton Trophy. And he remains one of the great steals in trade. The two picks Nashville gave up to get him from Chicago -- Ryan Garlock and Mike Blunden -- have played a total of ten NHL games (all by Blunden, none since playing one in 2007-2008).
***

Samuel Pahlsson to Columbus for 3/$7.9M

Caps effect: 2

Another one of those guys that some Caps fans might have thought would look good skating on F Street. Pahlsson seems like a very good fit for the Blue Jackets -- the sort of defensive forward who will do well in a Ken Hitchcock system.
***

Mathieu Garon to Columbus for 2/$2.4M

Caps effect: 2

Perhaps might influence the market for backup goaltenders in terms of the sort of compensation a Brent Johnson might get. Garon has fallen quite far since posting a 31-26-3 record for Los Angeles in 2005-2006. Since then, he's played in 32, 47, and 19 games a season.
***

Marian Gaborik to New York Rangers for 5/$37.5M

Caps effect: 5

If a healthy Gaborik skated for the Rangers in the first round of the playoffs, the Caps wouldn't have advanced. But the operative word there is "healthy." Gaborik is coming off of hip surgery (he's had surgery on each hip in each of the past two seasons). And, he goes from skating on the nice ice of Minnesota to the parking lot that is the Madison Square Garden surface. Good luck with that. Over/under on the number of games Gaborik plays -- 40. Odds on being healthy for the playoffs -- even. In the end, this is going to look like the typical Ranger checkbook signing... a lot of hoopla in the beginning and a lot of disappointment in the end.
***

Brian Gionta to Montreal for 5/$25M

Caps effect: 3

Montreal goes smaller still, and to more skill again with the addition of Gionta. Gomez, Cammalleri, Gionta -- they'll fly around the ice, and probably won't get pushed around as much as one might expect for players of such diminuitive stature. They're all pretty sturdy on their skates, or at least elusive. For Montreal, the calculus is now simple... Gomez + Cammalleri + Gionta > Kovalev + Koivu + Tanguay? On paper, it looks that way. But when you factor in the liability in contract dollars and term, it's still a risk. If any of these guys stumble, it's the wrong town for that sort of misstep.
***

Chris Neil re-signs with Ottawa for 4/$8.0M

Caps effect: 3

The sort of forward with an edge that the Caps might have needed stays in Ottawa, but at that price and term? Too many years (Neil is only 30, but plays a style that might result in breakdowns -- he missed 22 games last year) and too much money. Would he have been worth, say, four years and $9.0 million here? Don't think so.
***

John Madden to Chicago for 1/$2.75M

Caps effect: 3

It gets him out of the conference, at least. This is likely to affect the Devils more than the Blackhawks, where Madden was a mainstay as the embodiment of the Selke-class defensive-forward. His numbers might have suffered some as the NHL changed its style coming out of the lockout (he is minus-20 in four seasons since the lockout, compared to plus-50 in the four seasons preceding it), but he is still a guy who can match up against the other team's best offensive player effectively. He is perhaps not as consistently able to do it, though.
***

Martin Havlat to Minnesota for 6/$30.0M

Caps effect: 1

Huh? OK... last year he played in 81 games for Chicago and put up 77 points. He might be the most gifted offensive player in this free agent class (with apologies to Hossa and Gaborik). But his injury report reads like an episode of "House." Since the lockout alone... hamstring, shoulder, ankle, groin, shoulder, groin, shoulder, "lower body." Before last year, Havlat played in 109 of a possible 246 games over three seasons coming out of the lockout.
***

And there endeth the first day. There are a lot of names still out there, and while the Caps seem unlikely to add any of them to their roster, it should still be entertaining. We're going to be busy the next few days with other commitments, but we'll try to sign on and babble about this stuff some more as time allows.

Happy shopping all you junior GMs.

Oh Yeah, and NHL Free Agency, Too

If you tire and grow weary of the non-stop NHL feeding frenzy that today's opening of the unrestricted free agency signing period promises, just remember that other things happened on this date. For instance...

-- It is the birthdate of Samuel D. Riddle, in 1861. He was the owner of the famous race horse, Man o' War.

-- Charles Laughton was born on this date in 1899.

-- Cosmetics founder Estee Lauder was born on this date in 1908.

-- Famous shoe collector Imelda Marcos was born on this date in 1930.

-- Speaking of fashion, famous television cross-dresser Jamie Farr was born on this date in 1934.

-- Dan Aykroyd was born in Ottawa (this being a hockey sort of day) on this date in 1952.

-- Lady Diane Spencer was born on this date in 1961.

-- And guys...Pamela Anderson -- another Canadian -- was born on this date in 1967.

Some other things that happened on this date...

-- The first intercollegiate baseball game was held in 1859. Amherst defeated Williams, 66-32. Guess they hadn't gotten around to that "mercy rule" thing just yet.

-- In 1898, Teddy Roosevelt and his "Rough Riders" charged up San Juan Hill.

-- In 1899, the Gideons were founded by three traveling businesmen. The first Bibles were placed at the Superior Hotel in Iron Mountain, Montana, in 1908.

-- Walter Johnson no-hit the Boston Red Sox, 1-0, in 1920. Seems Washington did have pitching once upon a time.

-- Bulova Watch Co. was the first customer for a paid network television commercial, in 1941. The price?... nine bucks.

-- In 1943, withholding from pay checks was initiated.

-- In 1963, The Beatles recorded "She Loves You."

-- In that same year, the U.S. Postal Service introduced its "Zone Improvement Plan." You know it as the "zip code."

-- In 1972, "Ms." magazine began publishing.

-- In 1987, WFAN (New York City) became the first 24-hour all-sports radio station.

Just a few of the things July 1st is famous for, other than NHL free agency. And to all you folks north of the border....

Christmas in July

Christmas Eve.

You’d think, anyway. It is the day before the unrestricted free agency signing period begins, and all across North America hockey fans will go to sleep to dream of sugar daddy GM’s stuffing their approved NHL-logo stockings with free agent goodies.

You’d be better off wishing for coal.

Below we show you a table of all the NHL players who earned at least $6,000,000 last year (salary, not cap hit, according to the NHL Players Association):


46 players earning an average of $7.1 million last year. Quite a collection of talent. A lot of them earned that money as a product of signing a contract as a free agent with a new team, lured away by the promise of riches and offering the promise of success for their new teams and their fans. That list of big-money players who were signed away by another team to get that paycheck looks like this:


We interpret this pretty narrowly. These aren’t “trade and sign” guys, these are guys who were signed away to big contracts without intervening personnel actions. We've tried to weed those guys out. We're looking at the straight-up, sign the player away from another team sort of player. We are left with 17 players making an average of $7.0 million. Still a formidable lineup. But the object of the exercise is to win a Stanley Cup, and the object of the July exercise is to sign talent that will get a team to that goal. So, of this group, who has hoisted a Cup since signing their big deal?


Now we’re left with a very short list. Three players who earned an average of $6.3 million last year. But it gets better. Consider Sergei Gonchar and Brian Rafalski. Both are defensemen, both signed big contracts with new teams (Gonchar having been signed away from Boston in 2005, Rafalski from New Jersey in 2007). But both did so with teams -- the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Detroit Red Wings – that signed home-grown talent to larger deals before they won a Cup. Pittsburgh signed Sidney Crosby to a five-year, $43.5 million deal in 2007 (before winning a Cup in 2009), while Detroit signed Nicklas Lidstrom a two-year, $15.2 million deal in 2006 (before winning a Cup in 2008).

That leaves us with one big bucks free agent – Scott Niedermayer – who stands as the centerpiece of a Stanley Cup champion, the 2007 Anaheim Ducks. But even here, the conclusion isn’t all together cut and dried. Jean-Sebastien Giguere was signed to a big deal (at the time) after the 2002-2003 season (Giguere isn’t “home grown, either, having been drafted by Hartford in 1995, but he had been with the Ducks for three years before his big payday).

Here is the point. Unrestricted free agent – at least at the top end of the pay scale – is the single most overrated aspect of personnel management and talent acquisition. The Stanley Cup being a rare commodity – there is only one champion crowned a year – we would expect that there would be a lot of failure if winning the Cup is the criterion for free agent signing success. But to have this many players – 17 – signed away to big contracts and one Cup to show for it (unless you count teams that also signed home-grown talent) begs the question, is all this hype over the next big signing worth it?

But hey, what other entertainment will a hockey fan have in the first week of July?

Bedtime Snacks... And the Dreams They Beget

Ugh...

Really, no more anchovy and pineapple pizzas before bed, especially after looking up and down the draft results...

But then again, I had slept in just a little while longer, I might have had this one dreaming about recent Capitals drafts...

Looking Back at a Six Pack of Drafts...To Look Forward

So… the Caps have added seven players to their stable in the 2009 draft, and for a team that relies as heavily on the draft as the Caps purport to do, it’s time to take a moment and look at what this draft -- and those preceding it -- will yield.

We use the future tense there, because we’re thinking about five years from now, when the kids selected yesterday will be the men making contributions. Five years from now, we will be looking forward to the 2014-2015 season, and we could be looking at a Caps team that employs a lot of draftees. That would be the hope, anyway. So, if we look at the past half-dozen drafts, starting with the haul of talent picked in 2004, we would have the following first and second round picks (with a couple of lower picks sprinkled in) playing regularly (or occasionally) for the Caps…


You could add to this a number of players who would be no older than their early 30’s…

Eric Fehr (29 when the 2014-2015 season ends, 2003 draftee)
Tomas Fleischmann (31)
Boyd Gordon (31, 2002 draftee)
Brooks Laich (32)
Alexander Semin (31, 2002 draftee)
David Steckel (33)
Milan Jurcina (32)
Shaone Morrisonn (32)

Yes, that makes 30 players. But then again, not all will be here – some could leave hockey (or the NHL), others might be traded, some might be stuck (so to speak) in the minors, and there are those who could leave for free agency. The point is that the Caps have embarked on a path, and they have walked it resolutely. But there are holes, too. Even adding Fehr, Fleischmann, Laich, and Semin to the list, it seems light (or at least uncertain in depth) in skill wingers. There are considerable question marks at center, despite Anton Gustafsson’s pedigree and Capitals management’s ebullient commentary on Marcus Johansson.

The Caps have a core – winger (Ovechkin), center (Backstrom), defenseman (Green), and – we hope – goaltender (Varlamov/Neuvirth). The draft can fill in around that; it is the conveyor that will keep feeding talent (if the scouting department does its job) for years to come. But like George McPhee said with respect to the other legs of the player personnel triad…

"There wasn't a lot of [trade talk] that went on here. There may be more of that next week and closer to camp. We're not going to force anything. The season doesn't start until October… We've got guys internally who can do it. We'll just see what's out there. If there's a player out there that can help our club, we'll be interested. Just don't expect us to go out and commit to a big or long-term deal in free agency. We've seen that movie before."

The trick -- when you depend on the draft for skill -- is using trades and free agency to fill in the holes, to find the role players, to find those spark plugs that can ignite a long Stanley Cup run.

The draft part looks – on paper – pretty strong, and that will feed the core as time goes by (again, we hope). But it seems there is work to be done over the next 15 weeks or so until that opening night in October. The fun is just beginning.