The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals wrap up their two-game home stand on
Tuesday night when they host the Dallas Stars at Capital One Arena. The Caps will be hoping to earn a split and
three of a possible four points on the home stand after dropping a 3-2 overtime
decision to the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday night.
The Stars will be finishing a three-game road trip after
dropping their season opener at home to the Boston Bruins, 2-1. Dallas had stops in St. Louis and Detroit
before coming to Washington, losing to the Blues, 3-2, and falling to the Red
Wings, 4-3, to close a disappointing back-to-back set of games to start the
season 0-3-0.
Dallas was, at best, an intermittent participant in the
postseason in the decade leading up to last year, reaching the playoffs twice
(2013-2014 and 2015-2016) and winning one postseason series (2015-2016). Last season, the Stars wandered across the
prairie through their first 48 games, going 23-21-4. They closed much better, though, going
20-11-3 over their last 34 games to reach the postseason, where they upset the
Nashville Predators in six games and took the eventual Cup champion St. Louis
Blues to the brink of elimination before falling to the Blues in seven games in
the second round.
The Stars had little in the area of elite goal scoring last
season. Only three skaters recorded more
than 15 goals – Tyler Seguin (33), Alexander Radulov (29), and Jamie Benn
(27). For Seguin, it was his fifth
30-plus goal season in six seasons with the Stars, and it pushed him over the
200 goal mark with the Stars (206), the 11th player in franchise
history to reach the 200-goal mark with the club. With 80 points last season, he became the 15th
player in team history to pass the 400-point mark with the club (464). Among 117 skaters in team history to dress
for at least 200 games with the club, Seguin is third in points per game (0.99),
trailing only Dino Ciccarelli (1.08) and Brad Richards (1.03); and he is third
in team history in goals per game (0.44), behind Ciccarelli (0.55) and Brian
Bellows (0.45). What was odd about last
season for Seguin was how ineffective he was outside the friendly confines of the
Central Division. In 26 games against
divisional opponents last season, Seguin was 19-16-35. Outside the Central Division, though, he was
just 14-31-45 in 56 games. In 23 career
games against the Caps, Seguin is 11-5-16, plus-5.
Victor Hedman has not done it. P.K. Subban has not done it. Neither Kris Letang nor John Carlson have
done it. But John Klingberg is one of
six defensemen to have posted at least 40 points in each of the last five seasons before this one.
Not that he gets a lot of attention for his effort. In those five seasons he received votes for
the Norris Trophy as top defenseman, but he did not finish higher than sixth in
the voting. Only two defensemen in team
history have recorded more 40-point seasons than Klingberg – Sergei Zubov (ten)
and Craig Hartsburg (six). He is one of
only three defensemen in team history to have multiple 50-point seasons (two),
trailing Hartsburg (four) and Zubov (six).
That Klingberg should be this productive is a bit of a surprise, he
being a fifth round (131st overall) pick in the 2010 Entry Draft and
the 40th defenseman taken in that draft. Of the 39 defensemen taken ahead of him, 18 have
not appeared in an NHL game, and only four have appeared in more games than
Klingberg (370) – Radko Gudas (419), Erik Gudbranson (469), Justin Faulk (561),
and Cam Fowler (622). Klingberg has yet
to record a point in three games, which is a bit odd, given that he had 11
points in 11 October games last season and has been a very productive early
season player, going 10-26-36 in 45 career games played in October. He is 0-8-8, plus-1, in nine career games
against the Caps.
One question that the Stars might like an answer to sooner
than later is whether Ben Bishop is truly an elite goalie or merely an
intermittent star. Three times in his
career, Bishop was a Vezina Trophy finalist as the league’s best goalie (he
finished second twice, including last season, and third once). In the first two instances in which he was
named a finalist, he followed up that season with somewhat of a drop-off. After finishing third in Vezina voting in 2013-2014
with Tampa Bay (37-14-7, 2.23, .924, five shutouts), he went 40-13-5 for a
loaded Lightning team in 2014-2015, but his goals against rose to 2.32, and his
save percentage dropped to .916, and he did not receive any votes for the Vezina. He finished second in the Vezina voting the
following year after going 35-21-4, 2.06 (best in the league), .926, with six
shutouts. However, in his nex season,
Bishop went 18-15-5, 2.54, .910, with one shutout split between Tampa Bay and
the Los Angeles Kings. After going
27-15-2, 1.98, .934 (best in the league), with seven shutouts on his way to a
second-place finish in the Vezina voting last season, the question will be if
he can, at age 33 (he will turn 33 in November) put together consecutive
top-notch seasons. Bishop is 3-6-2,
3.41, .890 in 12 career appearances against the Capitals.
1. The three losses
in regulation to open the season is the first time since the team moved to
Dallas that the Stars lost their first three games of the season in
regulation. The last time they opened
the season with three straight losses was in 1988-1989, when the Minnesota
North Stars dropped decisions to the St. Louis Blues, Montreal Canadiens, and
Quebec Nordiques to start the season.
2. Moving to Dallas
sat well with the franchise since they made the move in 1993-1994. Since then, the Stars have the third-best
overall record in the league (562-296-70, with 65 ties), trailing only the
Detroit Red Wings (604-247-92, with 50 ties) and the Pittsburgh Penguins
(581-304-54, with 55 ties).
3. Last season, the
Stars dressed 14 defensemen over the course of the season, the most defensemen
to dress for the club since the Stars dressed 14 defensemen for the 1999-2000
season. The last time the club dressed
more was when the Minnesota North Stars dressed 16 defensemen for the 1988-1989
season.
4. Only the Calgary
Flames were looser with the puck in the Western Conference than the Stars. Dallas was credited with 1,029 giveaways last
season to Calgary’s 1,189.
5. The Stars had the
worst shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 of any Western Conference playoff
qualifier last season (48.32 percent).
1. Jakub Vrana’s
overtime goal is one of only three scored in the NHL through Sunday’s games and
was the only one scored by a forward.
Carolina defensemen have the other two (Jake Gardiner and Jaccob
Slavin).
2. Through Sunday’s
games, the Caps were one of five teams in the league whose power play was under
20 percent (18.2) and whose penalty kill was under 75 percent (71.4). Columbus (16.7/66.7), Winnipeg (11.1/60.0),
Ottawa (0.0/62.5), and New Jersey (0.0/50.0) were the others.
3. Washington was
second in the league in fewest shots allowed per game (25.3) through last
weekend. Only Buffalo was better (24.5).
4. It is early, but
the Caps are sixth in the league in shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5
through the first week of the season (56.72). The concern might be that they
are 21st in that category when trailing (42.31).
5. Of the 18 skaters
to dress so far for the Caps, only Carl Hagelin has been on the ice without a
goal scored or a goal scored against through three games.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Dallas: Roope Hintz
The buzz with Roope Hintz started as far back as 2016.
It continued into last spring.
After posting five goals in 13 playoff
games last spring, he is looked at in some quarters as a star in the making.
Not bad for a second round (49th overall) pick in the 2015 Entry
Draft, the ninth left winger taken in that draft.
Hintz, who was 9-13-22, minus-11, in 58 regular season games
last season as a rookie with the Stars, is living up to his part of the bargain
in the early going, posting three goals in his first three games this season on
only five shots. It follows on a productive
finish that Hintz had last season when he went 4-7-11 over his last 14
games.
Hintz has size (6’3”/215) and has a scouting report that
states, “[he] can play the role of scorer or playmaker; has killer instincts
and a keen eye for scoring opportunities. Very high hockey-IQ and has incredible
awareness on the ice; is able to play the puck creatively, all the while
creating space for his adjoining teammates. Creates separation, not through
physical play, but through outskating the opposition. His proactivity,
recognizing and taking advantage of scoring chances, makes him a valuable
teammate and offensive catalyst for whoever he plays with. A very good skater
that is able to create chances through his speed. Possesses a hard, accurate
release on his shot, as well as good hands and overall puckhandling ability.
All-in-all, a prolific scoring threat that continuously plays with jump and
provides energy for teammates.” On a team that lacked offensive punch at
times last season, his rapid development will be counted on to improve that
level of production for the Stars this season.
In one career games against the Caps, Hintz is 0-1-1, minus-1.
Washington: Braden Holtby
Braden Holtby has faced each of the other 30 teams in the
NHL over his career, but against only one of them does he have a career goals
against average over 4.00. That would be
against the Dallas Stars, against which he is 2-4-1, 4.02, .870 in eight career
appearances. Only twice in eight
appearances has he allowed as few as two goals, and in one of those he entered
the game in relief, playing the last 30 minutes in place of Jaroslav Halak and
allowing two goals on 13 shots in a 5-0 loss to the Stars on April 1,
2014. In two other appearances he was pulled
early, in March 2015 after allowing four goals on 22 shots in 34 minutes in a
4-2 loss, and again in March 2017 after allowing three goals on 11 shots in
another 4-2 loss. Six times in eight
appearances, Holtby’s save percentage was under .900. If there is a silver lining here, it is in
Holtby’s having earned wins in two of his last three appearances against
Dallas, a 33-save effort in 4-3 overtime win in Dallas in December 2017, and a
24-save effort in a 4-3 win at Capital One Arena in March 2018.
Holtby is also fighting a career tendency to slow
starts. His .911 career save percentage
in October is the second worst, by month, over his career (in February games he
is .909). That includes his .900 save
percentage so far through two games to start this season (45 saves on 50
shots). He also has allowed more
shorthanded goals in October over his career (six) than he has in any other
month.
In the end…
In its Dallas incarnation, the Stars have tended to employ
head coaches with a defensive orientation – Ken Hitchcock, Dave Tippett, Lindy
Ruff. Those styles have not been easy
for the Caps to solve. Jim Montgomery,
now in his second season in Dallas, seems more of a two way sort who, in
alignment with how the league seems to be going, emphasizes quickness, speed, and pressure.
For the Caps, the chore will be to keep Dallas from dictating pace and to bend the
pace to their own liking. In this
respect, the play of centers Nicklas Backstrom and the returning Evgeny
Kuznetsov could be key, along with the ability of the defense to withstand a
heavy forecheck. But, it’s not as if the
Caps have not seen this before. It seems
to describe how most teams try to play these days.
Capitals 3 – Stars 2
