Theme: “Patience and time do more than strength or passion.”
-- Jean de La Fontaine
In 2004, when Alex Ovechkin was drafted by the Washington
Capitals,
the young winger said, “I've been waiting for this day for maybe two
years."
Nine years later, Caps fans are still waiting for the Stanley Cup that was
almost assumed to be waiting for the engraver on that draft day.
It certainly is not the fault of Alex
Ovechkin that the Caps have not won a championship; there are too many factors
that impact an outcome in hockey for even a player of Ovechkin’s stature to command.
It has not been the smoothest of rides for Ovechkin, even
with all the individual awards and accolades bestowed upon him. Hart Trophies… suspensions. First team all-star nominations… bitter
Olympic defeat. Regular season titles…
early playoff exits. It has been an
uneven ice sheet on which Ovechkin skated over his first seven seasons. And, when he stumbled out of the gate to
start the abbreviated 2013 NHL season after being an outspoken supporter of
the lockout that consumed almost half of the regular season, it looked as if he
would hit another deep rut on the ice sheet.
Ovechkin started the 2013 season learning a new position –
right wing – while still being the go-to guy for the Caps. It showed.
He started the season 5-5-10 in his first 16 games, at one point balking
at the move to right wing, at which point new head coach Adam Oates reassigned
him to his new position, only it was playing alongside Jay Beagle and Joey
Crabb. The Caps stumbled to a 5-10-1
record in those 16 games.
Then, February 23rd happened. After a scoreless first period against the
New Jersey Devils, Ovechkin scored on a one-timer from the left wing circle
5:20 into the second period. By the time
the final horn sounded, Ovechkin had a hat trick and an assist, and the Caps
had a 5-1 win. Starting with that game,
Ovechkin would finish the last 32 games with a 27-19-46 scoring line, a 69-goal
pace per 82 games. He recorded a goal in
19 of those 32 games. There were only 17
players in the league who finished the entire 48-game season with as many as 19
goals.
As Ovechkin went, so went the Caps. He scored goals in 24 of 48 games
overall. In the 24 games in which he
recorded a goal, the Caps had a record of 19-3-2. Washington was 11-3-1 in games in which
Ovechkin recorded a power play goal. The
Caps were only 8-15-1, however, in the 24 games in which he failed to record any
goal.
However, this being Ovechkin, his high accomplishment – a regular
season that would end with his third Hart Trophy as most valuable player and
third Richard Trophy as the league’s top goal scorer – would be accompanied by
another playoff low. He would be held to
two points in a seven-game first round playoff loss to the New York Rangers and
would not score a goal after netting one in Game 1. That he suffered a broken foot blocking a
shot in Game 6, playing through the injury in the last two games of the series,
is likely to be remembered far less than his suffering another early playoff
exit.
Fearless’ Take…
Only three players in the history of the NHL
have won more Hart Trophies than Alex Ovechkin – Wayne Gretzky, Gordie Howe,
and Eddie Shore. Only Gretzky and Mario
Lemieux have won more Ted Lindsay Awards as most outstanding player. No one has won more Richard Trophies. He is one of only 26 players in the history
of the league to win an Art Ross Trophy as leading scorer. He is a six-time first team NHL all-star,
including last season. And, he has done
this while being remarkably durable for a player who plays as physical a game
as he does. In eight seasons he has
missed 21 of 622 regular season games and none of the 58 playoff games for the
Caps in six post-seasons. He has four
50-goal seasons in eight years and was on an 82-game pace for a fifth last
season. No other player has more than
two 50-goal seasons over that period.
Then there are the playoffs.
For all the grief Ovechkin has taken in six post-seasons, only six
players have more goals in those six years (all of them have played in at least
ten more games), and only 11 have more points (again, all have played in at
least ten more games). These are things
to keep in the back of your mind when the inevitable Mike Milbury screed comes
oozing through your television screen this season.
Cheerless’ Take…
We can put this whole thing about whether Ovechkin is a
great player under the back porch for good.
He is. But… there is that whole
playoff thing. And for a finisher, he
hasn’t been too much of a "finisher." In
six seasons the Caps have played 12 games in which they could have eliminated
their playoff opponent. They are 3-9 in
those games. Ovechkin is 5-3-8, minus-3
in those games and has not had a point in his last four series clinching opportunities,
three of which the Caps lost. He is
2-2-4, minus-2 in Game 7’s and has not had a point in his last three such games,
two of which the Caps lost. In his last
21 post-season games overall he is 6-5-11, minus-4. When this trend gets
reversed, maybe those early exits do, too.
The Big Question… Will moving to the Metropolitan Division
cramp Alex Ovechkin’s style?
Alex Ovechkin has played his entire career to date in the Southeast
Division. In 203 career regular season
games against the “Southleast,” Ovechkin finished 123-147-270, plus-35. On a per-82 games basis that works out to
50-59-109, plus-14. Impressive. Now, what is his per-82 game scoring line
against non-Southeast Division teams over his career? It is 51-45-96, plus-10. Ovechkin has hardly pumped up his numbers
against the perceived “weak sisters” of the Southeast.
One could, however, make the point that comparing last year’s
production against the Southeast against that of the teams that would make up
the new Metropolitan Division, Ovechkin did benefit from weak Southeast
competition. He was 16-13-29, plus-10 in
18 games against the Southeast, 10-8-18, minus-2 in 20 games against teams that
today make up the new Metropolitan Division (he did not play against Columbus
last season).
His career suggests that he will get his goals in the new division, but he might
not get his points. That is where the
rest of the club is going to step up and finish or clean up chances or rebounds
Ovechkin provides on the ice.
In the end…
We are past the time when a Stanley Cup is to be assumed in
the Ovechkin era. The Capitals are thought as
much to be no more than a playoff bubble team as they are a real
contender. Whether the Caps are or are
not a playoff team, let alone a serious Stanley Cup contender, Alex Ovechkin is
likely to get his goals and points. He
and head coach Adam Oates seem to be on the same page to a greater extent than
Ovechkin has been with any of his previous three coaches. Oates, who had no training camp and barely
half a season to find ways to deploy Ovechkin, has a full training camp to add
new wrinkles, and Ovechkin has the benefit of 48 games plus a post-season at a
new position. He might not score goals
at a 55-goal pace over 82 games, as he did last year in 48 games, but that might be a
product a number of factors over which Ovechkin has little control. For example, the current state of the NHL
these days, scoring-wise, or the fact that the power play will have changes
made to it with the departure of Mike Ribeiro to Phoenix.
Still, Ovechkin is – and will remain for the foreseeable
future – the proverbial straw that stirs the drink for the Caps. If he is not the rambunctious kid who
celebrated every goal by abusing the glass along the walls or putting teammates
in physical jeopardy, he seemed to have a bit more joy about him last year than
he had in either of the previous two seasons.
That sort of energy can be a source of momentum for the club as much as
the volume of production he generates at the offensive end of the ice.
Alex Ovechkin is still compiling a body of work, but he is
now a much more fully formed player than in those early days. As far as his
total game is concerned, he is not likely to ever approach his goal-scoring
peak, but he is probably a more rounded all-around player (even if there will
be times when his defense looks uninspired).
Whether that will be enough to finally push him – and the Capitals – to
the summit of the league, well, we are at the point where we can only be
patient and let time answer that question.
Projection: 82 games, 44-46-90, plus-16
Photo: Source: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America
