The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
It is back-to-back Thursday for the Washington Capitals as
they head to New York to face the Rangers after hosting the Philadelphia Flyers
on Wednesday. The Caps, who broke a
four-game losing streak on the road against the Minnesota Wild in their last
road contest, will be looking to make it two in a row against the
Blueshirts. The Rangers, who reached a
season-high 11 games over .500 (35-24-4) with a fifth straight win on February
27th against the Montreal Canadiens, come into this game having
dropped three in a row and find themselves four points out of the second
wild-card spot for a berth in the playoffs.
Then and Now…
This will be the 225th regular season meeting
between the Capitals and the Rangers. Washington is 108-91-7 (18 ties) in the
all-time series, 49-51-3 (nine ties) on the road. Since 2005-2006, the Caps are 31-23-4 against
the Rangers overall and 14-13-3 on the road.
This will be the third of four meetings of the clubs in the regular season. The teams split the first two games, each
team winning on home ice, the Caps by a 5-2 margin on October 18th
and the Rangers in a 4-1 decision on November 20th.
Active Leaders vs. Opponent…
Noteworthy Opponents…
A team rebuilding is a team trying to go younger, and the
Rangers are no exception. Of the 27
skaters to dress for the club this season, 13 are 25 years old or younger,
including Brady Skjei, who was traded to Carolina at the trading deadline. None is younger than Kappo Kakko, the second
overall pick in last summer’s entry draft.
It has been an up and down rookie season for the youngster. He started the season a relatively quiet
1-1-2, minus-12, in his first nine games before breaking out with five goals
over his next seven games. However, his
two-goal game against Pittsburgh on November 12th, his first
multi-goal game in the NHL, to end that five goals in seven games run, was the
high water mark of his season. Since
then, Kakko has two goals in his last 46 games, ten assists, and carries a
minus-13 rating.
The odd part about his goal scoring is how it bears little
relationship to win-loss outcomes. The
Rangers are just 3-3-1 in the seven games in which he has a goal so far. It isn’t really any better when he records
points, the Rangers going 8-6-2 in the 16 games in which he has points. In fact, even his disengagement from the
offense, as far as it is reflected in shots on goal, looks out of place. The Rangers are 8-5-2 in the 15 games in
which Kakko did not record a shot on goal.
Time on ice? Getting it has been
a problem for the club. New York is
2-9-1 in the 12 games in which he skated 16:49 or more, 8-3-1 when he skated under
12 minutes. Consider them growing
pains. He is 0-2-2, minus-2, in his two
career games against the Caps so far.
On defense, Adam Fox is the youngest of eight defensemen to
dress for the Rangers this season and one of only two to dress for all 66 games
to date (Jacob Trouba is the other). Fox
was a third-round pick of the Calgary Flames in the 2016 Entry Draft (66th
overall), upon which he was traded twice before ever appearing in an NHL game,
first from Calgary to Carolina with Dougie Hamilton and Miceal Ferland for Noah
Hanafin and Elias Lindholm in June 2018, and again last April by Carolina to the
Rangers for a second round pick in the 2019 Entry Draft and a third round pick
in the 2020 Entry Draft.
Fox has broken through in a big way as a rookie this
season. He is tied for third among
rookie defensemen in goals (seven, with Minnesota’s Carson Soucy), third in
assists (28), third in points (35), first in plus-minus (plus-19), tied for
seventh in penalty minutes (28, with Philadelphia’s Philippe Myers), third in
power play points (13), and tied for first in game-winning goals (four, with
Colorado’s Cale makar). He is also tied
for third in that group in blocked shots (87, with Columbus’ Vladimir Gavrikov)
and first in takeaways (56). What he has not done much lately, though, is hit
the back of the net. Fox has one goal in
his last 21 games, but he does have ten assists, and he comes into this game
1-3-4, plus-3, over his last five games.
The future of Ranger netminding would appear to be the
property of Igor Shesterkin, who has been impressive in his NHL debut season,
going 9-1-0, 2.23, .940 in ten appearances to date. However, he has not made an appearance since
stopping 44 of 46 shots against San Jose in a 3-2 win at Madison Square Garden
on February 22nd. He and teammate Pavel Buchnevich were involved in a car accident in Brooklyn on
February 23rd, Shesterkin suffering a non-displace rib fracture.
Shesterkin’s timetable for returning to the ice has been
moved forward, but for now, the bulk of the netminding duty would seem to fall
to Alexandar Georgiev, himself having just turned 24 and in only his third NHL
season. The undrafted Georgiev signed a
three-year contract as a free agent with the Rangers in July 2017 on the basis
of an impressive developmental camp performance. If he gets the call in this contest, it will
be Georgiev’s 33rd appearance of the season, matching his career
high set last season. He already has a
career-high 16 wins , although his goals against average (2.98) is little
changed from last season (2.91), as is his save percentage (.912 versus .914
last year).
The odd part about Georgiev’s record this year is how weak
his record is on home ice. While he
sports a 13-5-0, 2.88, .922 record on the road with two shutouts, he is just
3-9-1, 3.13, .895 in 14 appearances at Madison Square Garden this season. It is a reversal of his record last season,
when he was 7-3-3, 2.23, .931, with one shutout at home and 7-10-1, 3.44, .902,
with one shutout on the road. He is just
1-7-0, 3.09, .894 (one no-decision) in his last nine appearances on home
ice. Georgiev is 0-2-1, 4.06, .875 in
three career appearances against the Caps.
1. If the Rangers are
going to make a final push for a playoff spot, they need to step up their
performances on home ice over their last seven home games. Their .529 points percentage at MSG (17-15-2)
is tied for 26th in the league.
2. New York has the
fourth-best power play on home ice in the league (27.0 percent), and they get
to deploy it, their 3.38 opportunities per game ranking sixth in the league.
3. On the other hand,
the Rangers have the league’s worst penalty kill on home ice (74.7 percent) and
its second-worst net penalty kill, after accounting for shorthanded goals
scored (77.9 percent, only Detroit being worse at 75.7 percent).
4. Only Arizona has
lost more games in regulation this season when taking a lead into the first
intermission (six) than the Rangers (four, tied with New Jersey, Detroit, and
Montreal). They are one of seven teams
to have won only one game on home ice when trailing at the first intermission,
fewest in the league.
5. Shots on goal
matter with the Rangers on home ice, but not in the expected way. They have six wins in 13 games when
out-shooting opponents (6-7-0), but they have ten wins in 19 games when
out-shot (10-7-2).
1. The Caps have
played 33 road games to date and have 45 standings points. With a win in this game, the Caps would tie
the 2007-2008 and 2017-2018 teams for seventh-most standings points earned in a
season since 2005-2006 with seven road games left to play and 14 more points
available. They can capture the top
spot, it being held by the 2015-2016 club that earned 58 points on the road
(27-10-4), but only if they win out on the road.
2. This year’s Caps
have the second-best scoring offense on the road (3.39 goals per game) of any
club since 2005-2006. Only the 2009-2010
team was better (3.83 goals per game).
3. As bad as the Caps
have been on faceoffs on the road this season (47.5 percent/24th in
the league), it is only the third-worst club on draws on the road since
2005-2006. The 2013-2014 team was worse (45.1 percent), and was last year’s
club (43.8 percent).
4. One area in which
the Caps have made considerable improvement on the road is making teams face
their power play. Last year, the Caps
averaged 2.51 power play chances per game, fewest in the post-2005-2006
era. This year, they are averaging 3.36
chances per game, a 33.9 percent improvement.
5. On the other hand,
the Caps are going shorthanded more often this season on the road (3.58 times
per game) than last season (3.20, fewest in the post-2005-2006 era).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
New York: Henrik Lundqvist.
When Larry Brooks penned this column in the New York Post on
March 1st, it read like a eulogy for the greatest goaltender in New
York Ranger history.
Few athletes get to go out entirely on their own terms, and the end can be
difficult to watch. For a class act like
Henrik Lundqvist, it is more difficult, not just for Rangers fans, but for fans
of the sport who have had the chance to watch one of the great careers in goal
play out. When Lundqvist took the ice
for the Rangers against the Flyers last Sunday, it was his first game in almost
three weeks and would be his first complete game in a full month and that,
ironically, being a 33-save shutout of the Detroit Red Wings. In three appearances since that shutout of
the Red Wings, Lundqvist’s number have been ghastly. In 103 minutes over three appearances he
stopped only 33 of 42 shots (.786 save percentage) and lost both of his
decisions.
Oddly enough, Lundqvist has thrived in high shot-volume
situations this season, going 8-4-2 (one no decision) when facing more than 30
shots, stopping 525 of 567 shots along the way (.926 save percentage). In the six games in which he faced more than
40 shots, he stopped 247 of the 264 shots he faced (.936).
Lundqvist has always been a consistent performer, regardless
of venue, his career save percentage being .918 in both career home and road
games. This season has been a bit of a
departure for the veteran, posting a home record of 8-5-1, 3.08, .910 and a
road record of 2-7-2, 3.32, .897, with one shutout. In 42 career appearances against the Caps,
Lundqvist is 22-13-7, 2.76, .907, with four shutouts.
Washington: John Carlson
John Carlson’s next goal will give him a career-high 16 for
the season. His 58 assists and 73 points
are already career highs, the second straight year he topped 50 assists and 70
points. His 8.3 percent shooting is a
career best. His 37 primary assists are tied
with Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl among all skaters, not only defensemen, and
trail only Connor McDavid (38) and Jonathan Huberdeau (39) going into Wednesday
night’s game against Philadelphia. His
1.12 points per game are most by a defenseman appearing in at least 50 games
since 1993-1994, when Ray Bourque (1.26) and Sergei Zubov (1.14) had higher
points per game. At his current points
per game pace, Carlson would finish this season with 91 points. The last defenseman to have more in a season
was Phil Housley, who finished with 97 points in 1992-1993. You would think Carlson would be clearing
space on his mantel for the Norris Trophy as the league’s top defenseman, even
if his candidacy is largely based on his offensive performance.
You would be, if not wrong, then premature. Not that being the scoring leader among defenseman is a reliable predictor of
Norris Trophy winners. In 14 seasons
before this one, since 2005-2006, the trophy was won by the scoring leader
among defensemen six times, most recently by Brent Burns in 2016-2017. It is interesting to note that the trophy was
won by the second-leading scorer among defensemen four times in that span, most
recently by Mark Giordano last season.
Josi is said by many to have the superior all-around game,
defensemen expected to defend as well as score to be taken seriously as a
Norris candidate. But in goals allowed
at even strength, Carlson has been on ice for 23 goals, while Josi has been on
ice for 21. Josi does get more penalty
killing ice time (2:06 per game) than Carlson (1:27), which accounts for their
difference in total ice time per game, and that makes a point for Josi. The question might come down to whether
Carlson’s offensive numbers are so dominant in a recent historical context, to
offset the “balance” that is attributed to Josi. Carlson is 5-21-26, minus-1, in 35 career
games against the Rangers.
In the end…
A win over the New York will not drive a stake through the Rangers’
playoff chances, but it will make their climb that much steeper to
navigate. And that is the theme of the
week in which the Caps play three division rivals. Send a message, make their lives harder as
the season winds down, make a point that the Caps are still the class of the
Metro. Even with this being the second
half of back-to-back games, the tenth of 12 such sets the Caps will play this
season (they swept three and split six in their first nine sets), they have
enough to make things difficult for the Rangers.
Capitals 4 – Rangers 3
