“It is the working man who is the happy man. It is the idle
man who is the miserable man.”
-- Benjamin Franklin
Nic Dowd just keeps getting the job done. The descriptive term “fourth-liner” might be interpreted by some as a player with a limited skill set whose main job is to chew up minutes while the more skilled among his forward teammates take a breather on the bench. That description does not apply to Dowd. In four seasons with the Caps he has 36 goals and 76 points in 240 games. Of 25 Capital forwards to play in at least 20 games over that period, his 16th-ranked 0.32 points per game might not seem especially impressive, but his 1.59 points per 60 minutes does not rank far behind Lars Eller (1.72), and his 0.75 goals per 60 minutes over that span ranks ninth among forwards playing in at least 20 games, just behind Tom Wilson (0.77).
Last season, Dowd posted double digits in goals for the second straight year and recorded a career high 24 points. For the third time in four seasons in Washington he finished with a rating of plus-10 or better (plus-10). His 0.38 points per game was a career high, as were his even strength points (22) and shots on goal (90). He averaged 14:16 per game in ice time, second-most of his career, and his 53.7 percent faceoff winning percentage was also second-best over his seven-year career.
Odd Dowd Fact… Some things just defy explanation. In three seasons before he arrived in Washington, playing for Los Angeles and Vancouver, Nic Dowd shot 6.8 percent (nine goals on 132 shots). Since coming to Washington, he is shooting 14.0 percent (36 goals on 257 shots).
Fearless’ Take… It helps to have a fourth-line that can produce offensively from time to time. Dowd had points in 18 of the 64 games in which he played, and the Caps were 12-4-2 in those games. They were 6-2-2 in the ten games in which he had goals. And then there are the little things, in Dowd’s case – faceoffs. He was 50 percent or better in 40 of his 64 games, and the Caps were 22-13-5. In the 24 games in which he was under 50 percent, the Caps were 10-8-6. And, unsurprisingly, the Caps did well when he had more ice time (when the team is ahead, they can afford the luxury of giving bottom six forwards more time). They were 13-5-3 in the 21 games in which he logged more than 15 minutes.
Cheerless’ Take… One might like to see Dowd in the lineup a bit more consistently. In his four years with the Caps, he dressed for 240 of 289 games (83.0 percent), and at age 32, one might start to wonder if that percentage is a ceiling and not a floor. And, his superior shooting with the Caps compared to previous stops aside, his shooting in 2021-2022 was a mixed bag. The 90 shots on goal were a career high, but his 11.1 shooting percentage was his lowest in four years with the Caps. One odd fact (well, another) is that this season, in a departure from his previous three seasons, the Caps’ record with him out of the lineup (12-5-1) was better than with him in it (32-21-11) on a points per game basis (1.39 to 1.17).
Potential Milestones to Reach in 2022-2023
- 400 career games (he has 371)
- 200 career penalty minutes (178)
- 100 points as a Capital (76)
- 5,000 career minutes played (4.498)
The Big Question… Can Nic Dowd sustain his effectiveness as a fourth liner?
Nic Dowd is 32 years old, and this raises some flags on a team where a lot of players are on the far side of 30 years old. On the other hand, he does not have quite the mileage a lot of 32-year olds have. He did not play his first full season in the NHL until his 26-year old season. He has averaged just a bit over 12 minutes per game over his seven-year career. On the other hand, Dowd has endured a series of upper and lower body injuries as a Cap, plus a bout with COVID.
Effectiveness in the hockey setting also depends in no small degree on chemistry. With Garnet Hathaway and Carl Hagelin on his wings, it made for one of, if not the best fourth line in hockey. Sure, that is like being the best variety of SPAM in some respects, but remember as well that getting contributions from the bottom six forwards was an important ingredient in the Caps’ recipe for a Stanley Cup in 2018. Dowd will likely have to break in a new left wing to start the season, with Carl Hagelin’s progress from an eye injury remining uncertain. He could be a bit more of a goal scorer if someone such as Connor McMichael was on his left, while if a player such as Axel Jonsson-Fjallby was to man that spot, things might not look a lot different than they did with Hagelin in the lineup. On balance, there seems little reason to think that this season would look much different than Dowd’s first four seasons in Washington. A reliable faceoff specialist, a decent defensive player, some offensive pop, and a superior work ethic.
In the end…
A team cannot win without skill among its top-six forwards, but neither can it win without some contributions from the bottom six. Nic Dowd has consistently been a contributor from the fourth line for the Caps, and while the bottom six has disappointed in the postseason since the Caps won the Cup in 2018, Dowd’s production does not appear appreciably different from that of his regular seasons. There is the exception of his being minus-7 in 26 postseason games, compared to plus-35 in 240 regular season games with Washington. But his position is one that would seem be one in which drama will be avoided in 2022-2023. And that is a good thing with much of the remaining roster of forwards being unsettled.
Projection: 70 games, 10-16-26, plus-10
