Washington Capitals 2022-2023 Previews -- Forwards: Nic Dowd

Nic Dowd

“It is the working man who is the happy man. It is the idle man who is the miserable man.”
-- Benjamin Franklin

Nic Dowd just keeps getting the job done.  The descriptive term “fourth-liner” might be interpreted by some as a player with a limited skill set whose main job is to chew up minutes while the more skilled among his forward teammates take a breather on the bench.  That description does not apply to Dowd.  In four seasons with the Caps he has 36 goals and 76 points in 240 games.  Of 25 Capital forwards to play in at least 20 games over that period, his 16^th-ranked 0.32 points per game might not seem especially impressive, but his 1.59 points per 60 minutes does not rank far behind Lars Eller (1.72), and his 0.75 goals per 60 minutes over that span ranks ninth among forwards playing in at least 20 games, just behind Tom Wilson (0.77).

Last season, Dowd posted double digits in goals for the second straight year and recorded a career high 24 points.  For the third time in four seasons in Washington he finished with a rating of plus-10 or better (plus-10).  His 0.38 points per game was a career high, as were his even strength points (22) and shots on goal (90).  He averaged 14:16 per game in ice time, second-most of his career, and his 53.7 percent faceoff winning percentage was also second-best over his seven-year career.

Odd Dowd Fact… Some things just defy explanation.  In three seasons before he arrived in Washington, playing for Los Angeles and Vancouver, Nic Dowd shot 6.8 percent (nine goals on 132 shots).  Since coming to Washington, he is shooting 14.0 percent (36 goals on 257 shots).

Fearless’ Take… It helps to have a fourth-line that can produce offensively from time to time.  Dowd had points in 18 of the 64 games in which he played, and the Caps were 12-4-2 in those games.  They were 6-2-2 in the ten games in which he had goals.  And then there are the little things, in Dowd’s case – faceoffs.  He was 50 percent or better in 40 of his 64 games, and the Caps were 22-13-5.  In the 24 games in which he was under 50 percent, the Caps were 10-8-6.  And, unsurprisingly, the Caps did well when he had more ice time (when the team is ahead, they can afford the luxury of giving bottom six forwards more time).  They were 13-5-3 in the 21 games in which he logged more than 15 minutes.

Cheerless’ Take… One might like to see Dowd in the lineup a bit more consistently.  In his four years with the Caps, he dressed for 240 of 289 games (83.0 percent), and at age 32, one might start to wonder if that percentage is a ceiling and not a floor.  And, his superior shooting with the Caps compared to previous stops aside, his shooting in 2021-2022 was a mixed bag.  The 90 shots on goal were a career high, but his 11.1 shooting percentage was his lowest in four years with the Caps.  One odd fact (well, another) is that this season, in a departure from his previous three seasons, the Caps’ record with him out of the lineup (12-5-1) was better than with him in it (32-21-11) on a points per game basis (1.39 to 1.17).

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2022-2023

• 400 career games (he has 371)
• 200 career penalty minutes (178)
• 100 points as a Capital (76)
• 5,000 career minutes played (4.498)

The Big Question… Can Nic Dowd sustain his effectiveness as a fourth liner?

Nic Dowd is 32 years old, and this raises some flags on a team where a lot of players are on the far side of 30 years old.  On the other hand, he does not have quite the mileage a lot of 32-year olds have.  He did not play his first full season in the NHL until his 26-year old season.  He has averaged just a bit over 12 minutes per game over his seven-year career.  On the other hand, Dowd has endured a series of upper and lower body injuries as a Cap, plus a bout with COVID. 

Effectiveness in the hockey setting also depends in no small degree on chemistry.  With Garnet Hathaway and Carl Hagelin on his wings, it made for one of, if not the best fourth line in hockey.  Sure, that is like being the best variety of SPAM in some respects, but remember as well that getting contributions from the bottom six forwards was an important ingredient in the Caps’ recipe for a Stanley Cup in 2018.  Dowd will likely have to break in a new left wing to start the season, with Carl Hagelin’s progress from an eye injury remining uncertain.  He could be a bit more of a goal scorer if someone such as Connor McMichael was on his left, while if a player such as Axel Jonsson-Fjallby was to man that spot, things might not look a lot different than they did with Hagelin in the lineup.  On balance, there seems little reason to think that this season would look much different than Dowd’s first four seasons in Washington.  A reliable faceoff specialist, a decent defensive player, some offensive pop, and a superior work ethic.

In the end…

A team cannot win without skill among its top-six forwards, but neither can it win without some contributions from the bottom six.  Nic Dowd has consistently been a contributor from the fourth line for the Caps, and while the bottom six has disappointed in the postseason since the Caps won the Cup in 2018, Dowd’s production does not appear appreciably different from that of his regular seasons.  There is the exception of his being minus-7 in 26 postseason games, compared to plus-35 in 240 regular season games with Washington.  But his position is one that would seem be one in which drama will be avoided in 2022-2023.  And that is a good thing with much of the remaining roster of forwards being unsettled.

Projection: 70 games, 10-16-26, plus-10

 

Washington Capitals: 2021--2022 By the Tens -- Forwards: Lars Eller

Lars Eller

“Blessed is he that expects nothing, for he shall never be disappointed.”
-- Benjamin Franklin 

It would be fair to say that Lars Eller had a season that did not meet expectations.  You might call it, to an extent, a bad luck year.  He was sidelined not once, but twice for COVID issues, once in November for six games and again in March for another three games.  And yet, Eller’s year was not all disappointment.  It was certainly a mixed bag of production and problems.

Fearless’ Take… Eller finished the season with 31 points, the fourth season in the last five in which he finished north of 30 points (he might have been 5-for-5 if he was not limited to 44 games and 23 points last season).  He finished with the second-best shooting percentage of his six seasons with the Caps (11.2, trailing only the 11.6 percent he posted last season).  He displayed a physical edge that was largely absent in his first five years with the Caps, averaging 4.91 credited hits per 60 minutes, most of his career in DC.  He was on ice for 47 goals at even strength, second most as a Capital. 

Cheerless’ Take… Wanna talk numbers, cuz?  I got numbers.  About those hits.  The Caps were 11-10-4 in the 25 games in which he had two or more hits.  They were 1-2-3 in the six games in which he skated at least 20 minutes.  While he had 31 points, his 0.43 points per game were his second-worst as a Capital.  His 40 penalty minutes were second-most with the Caps.  He had his penalty killing ice time pared back – 1:39 per game, lowest of his six years in Washington, but the 18 power play goals for which he was on ice were the most of his career with the Caps.  He was minus-3 in goal differential on-ice at even strength.  He was minus-7 in takeaways to giveaways, second-worst of his tenure with the Capitals.  He has eight even strength goals, fewest in his six years with the Caps.

Odd Eller Fact… 2021-2022 was the first season of the six Eller has been in Washington that he did not record an empty-net goal. Or an empty net point, for that matter.

Odd Eller Fact II… Eller has been to the postseason six times with the Caps.  Only once in those six playoff appearances did he finish with a plus rating.  He was plus-6 in 2018, the year the Caps won the Cup and in which he scored the Cup-clinching goal.  In his other 35 playoff games over five seasons he is a combined minus-12.

Odd Eller Fact III… Eller is the only active Capital to average at least one minute per game on power plays (1:04) and at least two minutes per game on penalty kills (2:04).

Game to Remember… March 11^th at Vancouver.  When the Caps visited the Canucks on March 11^th, Eller was in a slump.  No points and a minus-8 rating over a ten-game stretch.  And he was averaging only 13:42 in ice time, which just seemed to concentrate his dry spell.  The Caps took a 2-0 lead into the first intermission against the home team, but they gave it all back, plus a goal for good measure when the Canucks potted three goals in just over four minutes early in the third period.  Evgeny Kuznoetsov brought the Caps back to even at 3-3 with a power play goal in the 16^th minute of the period to force overtime.  Eller skated one shift in the extra frame, but that would be all the Caps needed.  Eller helped strip J.T. Miller of the puck in the offensive zone, freeing it up for John Carlson to lead a two-on-one rush the other way, Eller to his left.  After gaining the offensive zone, Carlson fed Eller, who slipped a shot though the pads of goalie Thatcher Demko 42 second into overtime to give the Caps a 4-3 win.  It was Eller’s only shot on goal of the game.

 

Game to Forget… March 9^th at Edmonton.  Two days before he broke out of that ten-game slump in Vancouver, Eller had a thoroughly forgettable game against the Oilers in Edmonton.  The Caps scored first, but Edmonton came back to take a 2-1 lead.  The Caps tied it, but the Oilers regained the lead mid-way through the third period.  Washington tied the game on a goal by T.J.Oshie with two seconds left in regulation.  The Caps could not secure the second standings point in overtime, though.  In the fourth minute, the Caps got caught having to defend a 2-on-1 break with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl breaking free.  Eller was the only Capital back, a forward having to defend against two of the top offensive players in the league.  Eller could do little but serve as a witness as McDavid snapped a shot past his stick and past goalie Ilya Samsonov on the long side to give the Oilers a 4-3 win.  Eller was on ice for all four Oiler goals and finished a minus-3 (worst on the club for the night), tying his worst rating of the season.  At the offensive end, he had no points and only one shot attempt (a miss) in less than 14 minutes of work.

Postseason… Eller’s postseason tracked with his regular season.  He did record a goal and a pair of assists in the six-game loss to Florida in the opening round, but he was also a minus-4 (second-worst among forwards), and he was on ice for seven even strength goals against, second-most among Caps forwards. 

Looking Ahead… This off-season could be consequential for Eller.  He had what was, on balance, a disappointing season, even with the absences due to COVID.  And, he turned 33 years old on May 8^th.  With Connor McMichael waiting in the wings as perhaps the next third line center for the Caps on a team looking to get younger, there is a bulls-eye on Eller’s back as a potential departure.  He has one more season with a $3.5 million cap hit, and with McMichael having two more seasons at $863,000 on his entry-level contract before he becomes a restricted free agent, there could be additional incentive for the Caps to field offers for Eller.

In the End

Whatever fate awaits Lars Eller, it seems unlikely he would ever have to buy a drink in Washington in the future for his 2018 postseason.  But that said, hockey is a cold business, and a player who combines a disappointing season while approaching his mid-30’s, not to mention a potential replacement waiting on-deck, is a strong candidate to be playing in another city in 2022-2023.  This does not diminish the respect due Eller for being the answer for most of his career in Washington to a problem that plagued the Caps for years – getting a productive player to center the third line.  He added the bonus of being the sort of player who could center any of the lines in a pinch.  He has been a valuable commodity, and if he does move in this off-season, his body of work in that role deserves fans’ respect.

Grade: B-

Washington Capitals: 2021--2022 By the Tens -- Forwards: Nic Dowd

Nic Dowd

“By appreciation, we make excellence in others our own property.”
-- Voltaire

Once upon a time, when statistics were kept on stone tablets, fourth line players were lumbering, skill-challenged, edgy players whose principal purposes were to give their more skilled teammates a breather and to wreak havoc on the ice, either by righting wrongs or by trying to inspire their teammates with crunching hits and fisticuffs.

Those days are gone.  Fourth line players, while not possessing the skills one typically associates with first or second line forwards, are a multi-dimensional sort of player in the contemporary NHL.  One could argue that even with their modest ice time, their contributions as depth players and their abilities to play a two-way game are essential to a team’s success.  For the Washington Capitals, the fourth line was one of the season’s bright spots, and center Nic Dowd might have been the gem in that fourth line for the Caps this season.

Fearless’ Take

Last season, Dowd set a career high in goals with 11 in just 56 games, a respectable 16-goal pace over 82 games.  This year, it was points, with 24 in 64 games, a 31-point pace over 82 games.  Those numbers might be more impressive given that he averaged barely 14 minutes per game over the two seasons.  He was fourth among Caps forwards this season in credited hits (139) and hits per 60 minutes (9.13).  Among Caps forwards appearing in more than 15 games, he was fourth in takeaways per 60 minutes (1.84) and was second in that group in blocked shots per 60 minutes (3.48).  His plus-9 goal differential at even strength ranked fourth among all Caps forwards.  His 53.7 faceofff winning percentage led all Caps forwards taking more than 75 draws and was the second-highest winning percentage of his career (56.3 percent last year with the Caps being his best).  If Dowd wasn’t the best fourth line center in the league, he could see that spot from where he stood.

Cheerless’ Take

Pump the brakes there, cuz.  He ain’t Gretzky.  He ain’t even Brent Gretzky.  OK, that’s unfair, he’s a lot better than Brent.  But what was up with the penalties?  He set a career high with 44 PIMs.  Not a lot, but still quite a jump from his previous high (31 minutes) that was set last season.  And in the 19 games in which he drew at least one penalty, the Caps were 8-5-6.  And getting physical did not work out so well.  The Caps were 10-8-7 in the 25 games in which he registered at least three hits, perhaps not surprising since hits are often an indicator of poor possession numbers.  Not that Dowd’s personal possession numbers were bad, but his 50.4 percent shot attempts-for at 5-on-5 was not eye-popping.

Odd Dowd Fact… Nic Dowd was one of three skaters in 2021-2022 to post at least one power play point, at least one shorthanded point, record a rating of plus-10 or better, and score at least ten goals while averaging less than 15 minutes of ice time and appearing in at least 50 games (Jesper Fast and Pierre Engvall were the others).

Odd Dowd Fact II… Since Dowd came to Washington in 2018-2019, he is one of two players in the league over that span, from that season to this, to score at least 35 goals, post at least 75 points, record a rating of plus-35 or better, and do it while averaging less than 13 minutes per game.  The other player?  His linemate Garnet Hathaway.

Odd Dowd Fact III… Five times this season, Dowd recorded neither a hit nor a blocked shot.  The Caps went 4-1-0 in those games.

Game to Remember… April 16^th at Montreal.  Nic Dowd was closing in on a personal milestone when the Caps visited Bell Centre in Montreal in mid-April.  His career point total stood at 99 points.  Perhaps a modest milestone – 100 career points – he was chasing, but a for a fourth liner playing in his 364^th career game, reaching that career milestone would be a meaningful moment.  He hit the 100-point mark for his career in fine fashion, opening the scoring for the Caps on a goal that seemed typical for a fourth liner, setting up in front of the Canadiens’ net and redirecting a long-distance drive from Dmitry Orlov…

 

Dowd later added an assist on what would be the game-winning goal from Garnet Hathaway in a 8-4 win over the Canadiens.  It was the sixth multi-point game of Dowd’s career and, oddly enough, his second in the span of three games, his having gone 0-2-2 in a 9-2 pasting of the Philadelphia Flyers on April 12^th.

Game to Forget… November 8^th vs. Buffalo.  It is an unexpectedly difficult task to find a really unforgettable game from Dowd this season.  He did not finish worse than minus-1 in any game this season, and only twice was he on ice for more than one goal against at even strength, twice being on ice for two goals at evens.  But there was that one game against Buffalo in November.  He was already on the mend from a leg injury when he lasted just one shift into the second period before suffering another leg injury that ended his evening with just seven shifts in 4:37 of ice time.  He did record a pair of hits and split two faceoffs as the Caps went on to a 5-3 win over the Sabres, but he would miss five games with the injury.

Postseason… Dowd’s postseason was rather unremarkable.  He did post a goal and an assist in six games, but he was a minus-3, the third postseason in four trips (all with the Caps) that he finished on the minus side of the ledger.  His splits were noteworthy, though, in that he was 1-1-2, minus-1, with six shots on goal on home ice, while he went scoreless and a minus-2 with only two shots on goal in three games in Florida.  It was not unusual.  Dowd finished this postseason with a 3-1-4, minus-2, career playoff scoring line in 14 games on home ice but just 1-0-1, minus-5, in 12 playoff games on the road.

Looking Ahead… Dowd is not an elder stateman at this point in his career, but he will turn 32 years old on May 27^th.  He was one of 14 players to dress for the Caps this season having reached or passed their 30^th birthday.  He does have the benefit of having played in only seven seasons and 371 regular season games over his career to date.  There is no reason to believe, given the consistency of his performance with the Caps since his arrival and less mileage than most 32-year old players might have.  The Caps will have some serious roster issues to address in this off-season.  Dowd and his role with the club going forward should not be one of them.

In the End… You have to respect the consistency and the production of a player, even in a fourth-line role, that Nic Dowd brings night in and night out.  Accounting for context and what the expectations might be for a fourth line center, his season was among the best of any Capital this season.  Now, if only he could bring that level of consistency and performance to the offseason, the Caps might have the pleasure of deeper playoff runs than they have had recently.

Grade: A-