The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals embark on their first extended road
trip of the young season this week, starting their journey with a stop in
Edmonton on Wednesday night to take on the Oilers. An early season meeting against the Oilers has
become an early season staple of the Capitals schedule, and this is the fourth
time the Caps will meet the Oilers in October in five years (the only
interruption being the abbreviated 2012-2013 season). Washington and Edmonton have alternated
victories in that four-game stretch, the Caps winning the last meeting of the
clubs in Edmonton by a 7-4 margin last season.
The Oilers that the Caps will face this time around have to
qualify as one of the big early season surprises. Entering this contest on a three-game winning
streak, Edmonton has a 5-1-0 record that is best in the Western Conference and
is second in the league only to the Montreal Canadiens (5-0-1). What sets this team apart from recent,
disappointing versions of the Oilers is that this version is adding defense and
goaltending to a prolific offense. Last
year’s 27th-ranked scoring defense is currently ranked ninth in that
category. The improvement in their
scoring defense, married to a deadly offense (tied for first in goals per game)
has the Oilers second in the league in scoring differential (plus-1.16 goals
per game).
The Oilers have seven players with at least two goals so
far, a group led by Connor McDavid.
Coming off an injury-shortened rookie season that still left him fourth
among rookies in points and third in assists, McDavid was named the youngest
team captain in NHL history this season, at 19 years and 266 days old when
named, 20 days younger than Colorado’s Gabriel Landeskog when he was named the
Avs’ captain in 2012. Going into
Tuesday’s games, McDavid was tied for the league lead in multi-point games
(three), and he is the only player in the league with two three-point
games. The odd part about his scoring
profile is that he recorded all four goals and five assists he has so far in
four games against Western Conference teams.
He is looking for his first points against an Eastern Conference team,
having been blanked by Buffalo and Carolina.
He has faced the Caps just once so far in his career, going 1-1-2,
minus-2, in the Oilers’ 7-4 loss to the Caps last October.
At the other end of the age scale among the multi-goal
scorers for the Oilers is Mark Letestu (31).
His goal scoring has an odd aspect to it as well. Both of his tallies came on the road, in
Calgary in a 5-3 win and in Winnipeg in a 3-0 win last Sunday. Letestu has carved out a solid career as
primarily a checking line forward that can chip in occasional offense. He has had at least ten goals in five of his
six full seasons in the league coming into this season, missing out when he sat
out 28 games of the 2014-2015 season with a groin injury and finishing with
seven goals. Now in his second year in
Edmonton, the Oilers are his third NHL team, having played for Pittsburgh and
Columbus.
Edmonton’s offense is certainly weighted on the forward side
of the roster. Only one defenseman has a
goal this season. That one came off the
stick of Darnell Nurse in the Oilers’ last game, a 3-0 win over Winnipeg. Nurse, who was the seventh overall pick in
the 2013 entry draft, is the youngest defenseman to dress for the Oilers so far
this season (he will turn 22 in February). Only 13 of the 214 defensemen to dress so far
this season are younger than Nurse. Last
season was his first full season with the Oilers, and he finished with three
goals and ten points in 69 games. He is
also a middle-of-the-pack defenseman on a team with poor possession numbers
among their blueliners (47.20 Corsi-for at 5-on-5). He is
without a point and even in plus-minus in his only appearance against the Caps.
1. Speaking of poor possession
numbers, no defenseman for Edmonton is at 50 percent or better in Corsi-for at
fives. Oscar Klefbom is tops at 49.11
percent (numbers from Corsica.hockey).
2. Twelve of 21
skaters to dress for Edmonton so far this season are 25 or younger.
3. The Oilers lead
the league in overall shooting percentage (13.3 percent). It’s a good thing, too, because they have the
fifth-worst shots per game differential in the league (minus-4.4).
4. Only Calgary (53:39)
and Anaheim (47:57) have spent more time (through Monday’s games) killing
penalties this year that the Oilers (40:50).
The power play/penalty killing time differential is sixth worst in the
league (minus-9:10). Only four teams
have taken more minor penalties than Edmonton (28).
5. Edmonton is 24th
in team Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (47.07 percent).
This is part of an odd early-season scenario in which four of the top seven
teams in the league standings (Montreal, Vancouver, Detroit, and the Oilers)
are among the bottom 11 in Corsi-for (numbers from Corsica.hockey).
1. No Capitals defenseman
has recorded a goal so far this season.
As a group, they are shooting 0-for-49.
However, all six of them have points.
But, only one of them (Dmitry Orlov) has a power play point.
2. Washington is the
least penalized team in the league, fewest overall (17) and fewest minor
penalties (14). However, the fact that
they have two fighting majors on their record means that they are fifth-lowest
in penalty minutes per game (8:00).
3. Only Columbus
(39:02) has spent less ice time on special teams (power play time plus penalty
kill time) than the Caps, who are tied for second least (49:31).
4. No team in the
league has taken fewer faceoffs per game than the Caps. They are tied with Carolina, taking 57.2
faceoffs per game (Carolina’s winning percentage is better, 56.3 percent to the
Caps’ 52.1 percent).
5. Washington has
allowed the fewest shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 so far this season
(47.38; numbers from Corsica.Hockey).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Edmonton: Milan Lucic
On a team with 12 skaters age 25 or younger, Milan Lucic is
almost a graybeard at the age of 28. After spending his first eight NHL seasons
with the Boston Bruins, Lucic was traded to the Los Angeles Kings in June 2015
and signed with Edmonton as a free agent this past summer. Lucic has been a player with an interesting
mix of offensive skill (six straight seasons coming into this one averaging at
least half a point per game) and a physical edge (more than 200 hits in four of
his last five seasons, interrupted only by the abbreviated 2012-2013
season). He is getting a lot of work
with his new team, currently posting the highest average ice time of his career
(18:25) and second among forwards only to Connor McDavid (21:07). On a team with considerable skill among its
forwards, Lucic’ contributions in that area make the Oilers a much more
formidable team. He is 6-14-20, minus-3,
in 29 career games against the Capitals.
Washington: John Carlson
John Carlson leads the Capitals in ice time per game (23:57)
and is second among skaters in shots on goal (17 to Alex Ovechkin’s 21). But all he has to show for that in the
offensive end to date is one point, an assist in the Caps’ 2-1 win over the New
York Islanders in the home opener. Only
Los Angeles’ Jake Muzzin has fewer points (none) with more ice time per game
(24:10). Carlson ranks fifth in shots on
goal by league defensemen, but his 17 shots on goal without a tally is the most
shots on goal for a defensemen without a goal in the league. He is keeping some good company in that
regard, though. Through Monday’s games,
Kevin Bieksa was 0-for-16, Kris Letang was 0-for-16, Duncan Keith was
0-for-16. With Carlson, that would be a
pretty good top-four. But the Caps need
to get more out of their blueline than what they have so far (no goals among
the six defensemen to dress). And it
starts with Carlson. He is 1-5-6,
plus-11, in 22 career games against Edmonton.
In the end…
These aren’t your father's Oilers. Well, not your older brother’s Oilers. At the moment they do look a little like your
father’s Oilers with Connor McDavid doing a passable version of Wayne Gretzky,
Jordan Eberle doing a decent job of being Jari Kurri, and…well, there is no
current version of Paul Coffey. The
point being that this team, at least in the early going, has made life
difficult for goalies, and unlike recent editions of the club appear to have an
ability to keep pucks out of their own net.
It remains to be seen if this is merely an early-season blip, or if it
is a hint of things to come with this team.
For purposes of this game it hardly matters. If the Caps get caught up in a track meet
with the Oilers, the start of the western Canada trip is likely to get off to a
bad start. It will be important for the
Caps to impose their will on the Oilers’ skill.
Break out those t-shirts.
Capitals 3 – Oilers 2
