“All our sweetest hours fly fastest.”
-- Virgil
It has now been more than ten years since Alex Ovechkin
walked to the stage and pulled on a Washington Capitals jersey for the first
time as the number one overall pick of the 2004 entry draft. Nine NHL seasons (six reaching the
post-season), eight world championship tournaments, two Olympic tournaments,
and the better part of a season in the KHL during the 2012-2013 NHL
lockout. From charismatic pitch man who
sold everything from cars, to TV networks, to candy bars, to banks, to hockey
equipment; to perhaps the most casually dismissed elite goal scorer, certainly of this
era and perhaps in the history of the NHL.
It certainly has not been a boring ten years watching the career of Alex
Ovechkin unfold.
But here we are, ten years into what almost certainly will be the most accomplished career in the history of the Washington Capitals, Ovechkin having won just about every regular season individual honor the NHL awards, and both he and his fans are still waiting for that elusive team accomplishment, a Stanley Cup.
Coming off his fifth 50-goal season in 2013-2014, tied for
sixth all time in number of such seasons, Ovechkin received far more press for
posting a minus-35 (and yes, he is the only player in league history to record
at least 50 goals and a minus-35 or worse).
Still, he won his fourth Maurice Richard Trophy as the league’s top goal
scorer. He was named to the second team
NHL all-star team, the eighth time in nine seasons he was named to the first or
second team (not including being named to both first and second teams in
2012-2013 at right and left wings). For
the fourth time in his career he recorded at least ten game-winning goals (10,
second in the league last season).
Then there was the power play. His 24 power play goals led the league, was
the third time he recorded at least 20 man advantage goals, and were the most
in the NHL since Teemu Selanne had 25 in the 2006-2007 season. In the modern era (post-1967 expansion), only
five players have more 20-power play goal seasons than the three turned in by
Ovechkin to date: Brett Hull (5), Mike Bossy (4), Phil Esposito (4), Tim Kerr
(4), and Luc Robitaille (4).
Fearless’ Take…
One of the hallmarks of Alex Ovechkin’s career to date has
been his consistency. With respect to
Ovechkin’s goal scoring, here is one way to look at that. Only three times last
season did Ovechkin go more than two consecutive games without a goal. His 51 goals were scored over 40 games, those
40 games with at least one goal being more than half the games in which he
played (78). He had points in 48 of the
78 games in which he played.
He remains the straw that stirs the drink. In 36 wins in which he played, Ovechkin had
35 goals (35-19-54). He had 16 of his 24
power play goals in those 36 wins, scoring power play goals in 13 of those
wins. He had 23 percent of the total
goals scored by the Caps last season (51 of 225) but more than a third of the
game-winning goals for the team (10 of 28).
Ovechkin was recently described as “one of the least feared 50 goal
scorers in the history of the game.”
The breathless hyperbole aside, since he entered the league in 2005-2006 he has
more than 100 more goals (422) than the next highest goal scorer over that
period (Jarome Iginla: 310). He has five of the 18 50-goal seasons since the
2004-2005 lockout. Only Sidney Crosby
(5) has more 100-point seasons since the 2004-2005 lockout (4), and while the
last of those was in 2009-2010, consider that since then he has been a bit
hamstrung by coaches who were rookies behind an NHL bench when they took over
(Dale Hunter, Adam Oates) and a season (2012-2013) half lost to another
lockout.
Cheerless’ Take…
Yeah, cuz, about all those goals and points scored in
wins. Thirty-five goals, 54 points, and
a plus-3? He was a minus player in ten
of those 36 wins in which he played. In
42 regulation and extra time losses he was minus-38 and was a minus player in
26 of those games.
While plus-minus is a statistic of limited use to explain
individual performance, it is also true that only 12 of 435 forwards playing in
at least 20 games last season were on ice for more goals per 60 minutes at5-on-5 than Ovechkin. And, he had the 20th worst
plus/minus per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 in that group of forwards. Only five forwards were on ice for more goals
against at 5-on-5 than Ovechkin. While
his linemates bear a certain amount of responsibility for that kind of
performance, no Capital forward ranked lower than Ovechkin in any of those
categories.
That whole plus-minus thing was a particular problem against
Eastern Conference teams that reached the playoffs. In 28 games against those eight teams
Ovechkin had 18 goals, an impressive number.
He was also a minus-18, a less impressive one.
The Big Question… Is that all there is?
The consensus question that the hockey media thinks most
important with respect to Ovechkin is whether he and new head coach Barry Trotz
can read from the same page. The
implication is that he and Trotz’ predecessors either did not read from that
same page or that there was some sort of antagonistic relationship between Ovechkin
and those coaches.
That seems to be a simple, and simplistic, conclusion. Except for one in-game comment about a coaching decision, it is hard to find much in the way of commentary
from Ovechkin that undermined his coaches’ authority or that signaled an antagonism
toward those coaches’ approach to the game.
One can argue about results – the Caps have not advanced past the second
round of the playoffs in the Ovechkin era – but the term ”coach killer” (a term
that generates no lack of hits in a web search) is reflexive, not the product
of analysis.
It is fair to ask what Ovechkin has done to improve and
round out his game over nine seasons in the NHL. He came into the league as a prolific goal
scorer, and he remains one of the most productive goals scorers in the game.
And, if you are going to have one skill, it would be hard to think of another one you
would rather a player have. However, if
you look at the rest of his game you wonder what it is that has improved over
the course of his career.
This is where Barry Trotz can make a difference, if any
coach can. Ovechkin has played for four
coaches, all of them in their first NHL coaching positions. None had the ability (and in a couple of
cases, showed little inclination) to develop those other skills that would make
Ovechkin a more dangerous all-around player.
Trotz has 15 seasons on coaching experience at the NHL level. He has coached a wide variety of players at
that level in terms of style, temperament, and talent. This is a type of coach Ovechkin has not had
in his career.
It is not all on the coach, though. Ovechkin just turned 29 and is in the
chronological prime of his career. That,
and his nine years of experience, implies a certain responsibility on his part
to take the initiative to improve and bring out other aspects of his game. It has not yet been enough in terms of team
success that he be primarily (or exclusively, in the opinion of some) a goal scorer.
Even if he remains the most productive goal scorer of his generation, if
that is all there is it would seem unlikely that the Capitals will be any more
successful going forward in Ovechkin’s career than they have been over its
first nine seasons.
In the end…
The whole plus-minus thing with respect to Ovechkin’s game
is a red herring. This is a player who
was a plus-82 over his first eight seasons.
The minus-35, while historic, was a convenient hook on which a lot of
hockey media could hang their general disdain for Ovechkin’s style on and off the ice. On the other hand, he is the captain, he is
the straw that stirs the drink, and the Caps are not likely to be successful on
any level unless he is happy and productive.
In 2014-2015 he is in a situation in which he has not found
himself in his career, playing for a coach with a long NHL resume. The team around him is more balanced than it
has been in recent memory, with a deeper defense than the club has known in at
least a decade. It is not all on him to
score goals. That makes it an
opportunity for Ovechkin to develop more of his game. Better late than never, because as Virgil
said, “All our sweetest hours fly fastest.”
Projection: 80 games, 51-37-88, plus-4
Photo: James Guillory-USA Today
