“Good, better, best. Never let it rest. 'Til your good is
better and your better is best.”
-- St. Jerome
When Matt Niskanen signed a seven-year/$40.25 million
contract as an unrestricted free agent in July 2014, he was cashing in on what
was a perfect example of timing. After six
seasons with Dallas and Pittsburgh in which he never recorded more than seven
goals (and that in his rookie season) and never more than 35 points (in his
sophomore season), he hit the jackpot with a 10-36-46, plus-33, season with the
Penguins in 2013-2014.
When Niskanen fell back to a more career-normal 4-27-31,
plus-7, in his first season as a Capital in 2014-2015, it might have been seen
by some as a disappointment. What he
gave the Caps was a solid 22 minutes a night in 82 games, he and John Carlson being
the only Capitals defensemen averaging over one minute of both power play and
shorthanded ice time for the season.
What Niskanen has done in two seasons since is improve his
numbers incrementally each season and establish himself as perhaps the Caps’
best all-around defenseman. In three
seasons with Washington, Niskanen is second among Caps defensemen overall in
goals (14, tied with Dmitry Orlov), assists (88), and points (102), all to John
Carlson (29-102-131). He has averaged 23:04 of ice time over those three
seasons (two seconds fewer than Carlson).
He has logged more than 600 more minutes (5,585) than the next Capital
in line (Karl Alzner with 4,969) and
missed just four games as a Capital, all of them in 2016-2017.
Last season, his best as a Capital (5-34-39, plus-20, in 78
games), he displayed a certain consistency in his production.
Only once in eight ten-game splits did
Niskanen record fewer than four points (three in Games 61-70, which included
one of the four games he missed for the season), and he was a “minus” player
only in his second segment of the season (minus-2). In his fifth and sixth
segments (Games 41-60) he contributed seven power play points as John Carlson
missed six games to a lower-body injury.
Odd Niskanen Fact… Of Niskanen’s five highest ice time totals
last season, the Caps lost five times, four times in extra time and each of
those instances on the road.
Bonus Odd Niskanen Fact… All five of Niskanen’s goals last
season were scored against Metropolitan Division teams (one against Columbus,
two each against Philadelphia and the New York Islanders).
Fearless’ Take…
Matt Niskanen is one of five defensemen over the past three
seasons to play in at least 225 games, record 10 total goals, 100 total points,
and post a plus-minus of plus-30 or better.
Despite being a Capital for only three seasons, he is 24th in team
history in games played (242), 23rd in goals scored (14), 15th
in assists (88), 15th in points (102), 14th in plus-minus
(plus-37), and tied for 11th in game-winning goals (11, with Rod
Langway). Last season he demonstrated a
certain “road warrior” mentality, going 3-23-26, plus-6, in 39 road games (both
of his game-winning goals came on the road) while posting a scoring line of
2-11-13, plus-14, at home.
Cheerless’ Take…
Outside of John Carlson (8-14-22, plus-2), the Caps have not
had a lot of offensive numbers put up by defensemen in the postseason over the
last three seasons. Matt Niskanen is no
exception, even if he is second in points over that span. In 39 playoff games over his three seasons
with the Caps, he is 1-10-11, plus-1. And
that goal came in a 6-2 thrashing by the Pittsburgh Penguins in Game 2 of their
second-round series last spring (to be fair, it was a power play goal that tied
the game in the first period). In fact,
Niskanen’s postseason production has lagged his regular season numbers for most
of his career. The four points he posted
with the Caps last spring in 13 games tied his second-highest point total in
any playoff year (he had nine points in 13 playoff games in his last season with
the Pens in 2013-2014).
Potential Milestones to Reach in 2017-2018...
Potential Milestones to Reach in 2017-2018...
- 800 games played (currently has 733)
- 50 goals (currently has 49)
- 300 points (currently has 269)
- 500 penalty minutes (currently has 383)
The Big Question… Does Matt Niskanen have another level of
improvement to provide?
Losing the likes of Karl Alzner, Kevin Shattenkirk, and Nate
Schmidt on the blue line; and replacing them with rookies, late training camp
signings, or in-season replacements makes for a difficult challenge on defense. It places a certain pressure on both John
Carlson and Matt Niskanen to strike a balance between improving their
production and staying within their comfort zones in terms of style and role. That Carlson slipped a bit last season in
terms of per-game production at least suggests the potential for bouncing
back. Niskanen presents a different
situation. While he has improved in each
of his three seasons with the Caps, the numbers in each of those seasons are
all higher than his career per-82 game averages. It begs the question of whether he regresses
to a personal mean, or he has another 2013-2014 level of production in him. The answer to that question might signal
whether the Caps are a contender or will fight for a playoff spot next spring.
In the end…
Matt Niskanen is not going to show up on a short list of
elite defensemen. He does not have the
offensive numbers of an Erik Karlsson, doesn’t have the cannon of a shot of a
Shea Weber or a Brent Burns, and he does not have the deep playoff resume or a
Duncan Keith or a Drew Doughty. And even though a Capitals defenseman did
receive a vote for the Norris Trophy last season, it was not Niskanen (it was
Dmitry Orlov). His is the profile of an
underrated player, one who is very good at a wide range of tasks. He plays well in all three zones and in all
three strength situations.
That he carries the description of “two-way” defenseman
might normally suggest he is not especially skilled in either way, offensively
or defensively. Far from it. Niskanen might be the best defensemen at both
ends on this team, who has been durable, to boot. His presence lends stability and consistency
to a lineup that will need it this season, but if he was better last season
than he was in the season before that, and better then than in the season
before that one, he might have to be at his best this season for the Caps to
make a deep playoff run.
Projection: 79 games, 7-36-43, plus-18
Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America
