The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals played what was arguably their worst
game in five weeks when they dropped a 4-1 decision to the Florida Panthers in
the first leg of their three-game road trip.
Not since the Caps lost in New York to the Rangers, 5-2, on November 3rd
did the Caps look as disorganized as they did against the Panthers on Thursday
night. Worse, they did it with many
fathers and mentors of players in attendance.
The Caps get a chance to redeem themselves and put a smile
on their elders’ faces on Saturday night when the Caps complete the Florida
portion of their road trip with a game in Tampa against the Lightning at Amalie
Arena.
This will be the second meeting of the clubs this season and
first in Florida. Washington defeated
the Lightning, 4-2, on November 27th at Verizon Center. Since that meeting, the teams have traveled
similar paths…
If anything, the recent record of the Caps is a bit of a
slowdown from their 16-5-1 start, but it is still among the fastest starts in
club history. On the other hand, the 3-2-0 record for the Lightning is just
more of what they had been doing to start the season. The Lightning does have two three-game
winning streaks this season, but they have been hard pressed to generate any
sense of momentum. It does not even seem
to matter whether they have done it at home or on the road, the lurching,
stumbling progress has been the same – 7-5-1 at home (19th-ranked home ice
record) and 7-7-0 on the road (12th).
The Lightning have not been especially productive in the
offensive end of the ice in the five games since they faced the Caps. With all due respects to the players
involved, if J.T. Brown is tied for the points lead (1-3-4), Brian Boyle (2) and
Nikita Kucherov (4) are the only players with more than one goal, and the guy
you expect to be the leader in scoring goals has none in his last seven games
and two in his last 11, this is not a mix conducive to long term success.
Which brings us to “the triplets.” Last year, Kucherov, Tyler Johnson, and
Ondrej Palat made quite a trio, accounting for 74 goals as a group. Their possession numbers as a group was just
about as good (53 percent). Kucherov has
certainly contributed from the right side
recently and has ten goals for the season (second to Stamkos’ 11). Johnson and Palat, however, are not having
quite the same impact as Kucherov or even as they had last season. Johnson has four goals in 23 games, although
all of them have come in his last 11 games.
He has missed a number of games this season to an upper body
injury. Palat has two goals in 17 games
and just returned to the lineup on December 10th after missing three
weeks with a lower body injury. As a
group, these three players have eight career goals against the Caps in 19
games.
There might be a fair amount of talk as the season unfold
whether Henrik Lundqvist, Carey Price, Marc-Andre Fleury, or even Braden Holtby
should be given consideration for the Vezina Trophy. Here is another name – Ben Bishop. While the four goalies mentioned have
certainly had fine starts to the season (or at least while healthy in the case
of Price), Bishop is second in the league in goals against average (1.95;
minimum: 750 minutes) and fourth in save percentage (.931). He has gone 15 straight appearances without
having allowed more than two goals in consecutive games (7-6-1, 1.59, .944, one
shutout). What is amazing is that in
that run he lost five games in regulation when allowing two or fewer
goals. Bishop is 1-4-1, 3.96, .884 in
seven career appearances against the Caps.
1. Part of Tampa
Bay’s problem is weak special teams.
Their special teams index (power play plus penalty killing percentages)
ranks 27th in the league (94.5).
2. So far this
season, three teams have failed to earn a standings point when trailing after
two periods. Tampa Bay is one of them with
a 0-8-0 record when trailing after 40 minutes (the Rangers and Avalanche are
the other teams).
3. Only four teams
have scored two or fewer goals in more games than the Lightning (16): Vancouver
(17), Columbus (17), Anaheim (17), and Florida (18). Conversely, only three teams have allowed two
or fewer goals in more games than the Lightning (16): Washington (17), Montreal
(17), and the Rangers (19).
4. The Lightning
might beat teams, but they don’t beat them up.
Only Toronto has fewer fighting majors this season (1) than Tampa Bay
(2).
5. The Lightning
might be skating in a bit of bad luck, or perhaps they are deep in talented
finishers. Their possession numbers are
not bad: 11th in Corsi-for overall at 5-on-5 (51.3), 11th in score
adjusted Corsi (51.6), and 11th in close score Corsi (50.6; numbers from war-on-ice.com).
1. If Tampa Bay’s
special teams are weak, the opposite is true for the Caps. Their special teams index ranks second in the
league (107.9) to the Boston Bruins (108.5).
2. One thing you can
probably count on is that the winner of this game will be the team going to the
locker room at the second intermission with a lead. There are seven teams with perfect records
when leading after 40 minutes, and the Caps and Lightning represent two of
them. Only the New York Rangers have
more wins in those situations (13-0-0) than the Caps (12-0-0).
3. Alex Ovechkin is
on a pace to finish the season with 427 shots on goal. If he hits that mark it would be his highest
shots on goal total since 2008-2009 when he finished with 528 shots on goal.
4. No Capitals
defenseman appears in the top-50 of goals allowed/on-ice. Matt Niskanen is tied for 56th
with being on ice for only 26 goals against.
5. Washington has not
experienced consecutive games with overall Corsi at 5-on-5 of over 50 percent
since they did it in back-to-back games on November 12th against
Philadelphia (51.7) and on November 13th against Calgary
(60.7). In 11 games since they have been
over 50 percent just three times and are a cumulative 48.5 percent (numbers from war-on-ice.com).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Tampa Bay: Steven Stamkos
The Internet forgets nothing. And when one of the most prolific goal
scorers of his era “likes” a "tweet" about the possibility of his leaving his
current employer for another (who happens to reside in his hometown), people will take notice.
Steven Stamkos is not having a banner year so far (11 goals in 29 games), and
this cannot help. He is on an oh-fer
over his last seven games on just 13 shots.
While he is one of the most efficient shooters in the league (17.1
percent for his career), he is on a pace to finish with his lowest shot total
(204) of any full season in which he played since his rookie year in 2008-2009
(181 in 79 games). Stamkos is 14-13-27,
minus-14, in 33 career games against Washington.
Washington: Braden
Holtby
It would seem likely that it will be largely up to Braden
Holtby to keep the Caps’ record intact of not having lost consecutive games
this season. And frankly, this will be a
challenge. In four games following
relief from Philipp Grubauer this season, Holtby is 2-2-0, 2.75, .889. Almost half of the 11 goals he allowed in
those four games came in the 5-2 loss to the Rangers on November 3rd,
and he does have a good save percentage in the other three games (.922), but it
might be something that bears watching in this game. Holtby is 6-2-1, 3.10, .904, with one shutout
in 10 career appearances against the Lightning, including a 32-save effort in a
4-2 win against Tampa Bay on November 27th.
In the end…
This is really pretty simple. That Florida game?
If they don’t, they will be just fine.
Capitals 3 – Lightning 2
