The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 20: Avalanche at Capitals, November 19

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals reach the 20-game mark of the season a wounded team that is struggling more, perhaps, than at any time since they last missed the playoffs, in 2013-2014.  They fought hard to succeed in the face of season-opening absences among top players, going 5-4-0 in their first nine games, capped with a 3-0 shutout of the Nashville Predators on October 29^th.  That looks like the high point of their season to date.  Since losing their next game, 3-2 in a Gimmick to the Carolina Hurricanes on Hallowe’en, their season has turned into one long “trick” with barely a treat in sight, going 2-5-3 since that win over the Predators.  And now, after a winless three-game road trip (0-2-1), they return home on Saturday night, but catching no break in a brutal stretch of the schedule.  The Caps get to host the defending Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche.

After struggling with might have been a case of “Stanley Cup Hangover” to start the season, going 4-4-1 in their first nine games, the Avs come to town with a 5-1-0 record over their last six games.  The have done it on both sides of the puck, their 4.17 goals per game tied with Vegas for the second-best scoring offense over that span and the 2.17 goals allowed per game tied with New Jersey for fifth-best in the league.

Colorado has been led on offense by a trio of players who have ten or more points apiece over the six games.  Mikko Rantanen leads the threesome with seven goals and 14 points.  The eight-year veteran is among the least noisy scorers in the league.  But don’t be fooled by what might seem a lack of attention to his production. He is well on his way to posting his third straight 30-plus goal scoring season (and fourth of his career) with 11 goals in 15 games overall.  He seems a sure bet to going 7-for-7 in 20-plus goal seasons in the seven full seasons he has played in the NHL, including this one.  And, with those 11 goals and 25 points overall, he is on a 60-goal, 137-point pace that would obliterate the career highs of 36 goals and 92 points he set last season. 

Rantanen does seem to have a slowdown in his future, though.  The 11 goals on 47 shots works out to a 23.4 shooting percentage, which would be difficult to sustain, even if he does have history of shooting efficiency (five of his last six seasons at 15.0 percent or higher with a high of 17.8 percent in 2019-2020).  He has been a streaky scorer this season to date.  He posted points in hi first four games (3-6-9), including a three-point and a four-point game.  He followed that with a four-game streak without a point, but he then rolled on a six-game points streak (8-8-16), including a pair of four-point games and a three-point game before being shutout in his last game against Carolina.  If there is a plus for the Caps here, it is that his home-road scoring split is heavily weighted to home scoring (9-11-20 in seven home games and 2-3-5 in eight road games).  Rantanen is 6-6-12, minus-3, in nine career games against Washington.

It is not surprising that Nathan MacKinnon is a member of the double-digit scoring trio over the last six games for Colorado.  Where Rantanen has been the goal scorer, MacKinnon has been the set up man with 11 assists among the 12 points in his last six games.  MacKinnon was the prize of a loaded 2013 Entry Draft, the first player taken overall.  He had “future hall of famer” written in his journal from the moment he was selected by the Avalanche, but it took a while for him to start fulfilling his vast promise and be included in any discussion of best players in the game. He posted 24 goals and 63 points as an 18-year old rookie in 2013-2014, good enough for him to make the first team of the league’s all-rookie team and to win the Calder Trophy as the league’s outstanding rookie.   

But MacKinnon didn’t match either his rookie goal or point total in any of the following three seasons.  But in 2017-2018 he exploded for 39 goals and 97 points and followed that up with consecutive 35-plus goal/90-plus point seasons, the only player to pull off that double in all three of those seasons.  Since that 2017-2018 season through 15 games this season, MacKinnon has 171 goals (seventh among all skaters over that span), 295 assists (third), and 466 points (third).  His plus-97 rating is tied for sixth through Thursday night’s games.  He has only four goals in 15 games so far this season, but his 20 assists lead the league.  It seems as if he is due to break out in goal scoring, his four goals on 74 shots (5.4 percent) being very un-MacKinnon like.  Caps fans it does not happen on Saturday.  MacKinnon is 6-12-18, minus-1, in 15 career games against the Caps.

Cale Makar is the third member of the double-digit points trio.  Where Rantanen has been the goal scorer, and MacKinnon has been the playmaker, Makar has been Makar.  Three goals, most among Colorado defensemen over the six-game run, seven assists, leading all defensemen, and a plus-8 rating, tied with fellow defenseman Devon Toews for the team lead. In only his fourth NHL season and just having turned 24 years old in late October, he is arguably the top offensive defenseman in the game.  His 193 goals over his four NHL seasons lead all defenseman over that span, his 147 assists rank sixth, and his 198 points rank third.  He is the only defenseman to have played in more than five games over the last four years to average more than a point per game (1.04), his 18 power play goals are tied for first, and his 85 power play points rank second among all league defenseman over the four-year period.  Add a league-leading 14 game-winning goals over that span, and a 10.5 shooting percentage (one of two defensemen playing in at least 50 games to top 10 percent), and it is a solid case to make for Makar as the top offensive defenseman in the league.  He already has points in 11 of 15 games overall this season, and the Avs are 8-2-1 in those games.  Six of those games are multi-point games.  In four career games against the Caps, Makar is 0-2-2, minus-4.

1.  The 5-1-0 record that Colorado brings to town since November 4^th is the second-best record in the league over that span, trailing only that of the New Jersey Devils (6-0-0, part of an 11-game winning streak on which the Devils find themselves).

2.  Although the Avs have that second-best scoring offense in the league over their last six games, their scoring seems a bit unbalanced.  Colorado had 24 skaters appear over those six games, but ten have goals, and 14 have points, which seems a bit light.

3.  Colorado has a 33.3 percent power play over their last six games, which is actually less efficient than their overall league leading 36.7 percent power play for the season to date.

4.  The Avalanche have three wins over their last six games settled by three or more goals, the most three-plus goal wins over that span.

5.  In five of their six games in the 5-1-0 run, Colorado scored first in five of them, winning four times.

1.  The Gimmick loss to St. Louis on Thursday night broke a streak of three three-goal losses for the Caps in their last three defeats (4-1 to Pittsburgh, 6-3 to Tampa Bay, and 5-2 to Florida).

2.  The Caps went to extra time for the third time this season on Thursday night in St. Louis.  They have lost all three times, twice in the Gimmick.

3.  The loss to the Blues was the sixth time in 19 games that the Caps scored four or more goals and the first time they lost in such games.

4.  Washington returns home having lost their last five games on the road (0-3-2).  They have won two of their last three contests on home ice, scoring five goals in each of the two wins.

5.  The Caps have allowed three or more goals in seven of nine home games this season and only one goal in the other two.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Colorado: Alexandar Georgiev

When Darcy Kuemper left the Avalanche in free agency following their Stanley Cup win last season and replaced him with free agent Alexandar Georgiev (three years/$10.2 million) , some might have viewed the exchange as a down grade and a harbinger of a platoon system with Pavel Francouz.  So far, Georgiev has been lights out (quite literally, if one is speaking of red goal lights).  In ten appearances, Georgiev is 7-2-1, 2.70, .924.  Those goals against average and save percentage numbers are the best of his six-year career to date. 

Not only has Georgiev been effective in goal for his new club to date, he has been so in the face of heavy shot volumes.  He has faced 35.3 shots per game to date, seven times topping 35 shots faced and twice facing over 40 shots in a game.  His even strength save percentage (.942) ranks fifth among 62 goalies appearing in at least five games.

Georgiev’s home/road split for the season will not give comfort to Caps fans hoping to start their three-game home stand on a positive note.  In five home games he is 3-1-1, 3.01, .905.  However, in five road games, Georgiev is 4-1-0, 2.38, .938.  In four of those five games he posted save percentages of .920 or better, three times over .940.  He faced 35 or more shots on goal in four of those five road games, including a season-high 46 shots in a 3-2 win in New York over the Rangers on October25th.  Georgiev is 2-5-1, 3.62, .882 in eight career appearances against the Caps.

Washington: Darcy Kuemper

Charlie Lindgren got his chance to face a former team on Thursday night when he took the ice in goal against the St. Louis Blues.  Now, Darcy Kuemper seems likely to get his chance to face his old Colorado squad on Saturday night.  Kuemper has appeared in 14 games to date for the Caps, and his season so far seems to divide into two seven-game pieces.  In the first he went 4-3-0, 2.47, .919, capping the seven-game segment with a 3-0 shutout of the Nashville Predators on October 29^th.  In seven games since, Kuemper is 1-5-1, 3.02, .902, and he suffered his first instance of being pulled from a contest, lasting 16 minutes and change against the Tampa Bay Lightning, giving up four goals on nine shots in a 6-3 loss on November 13^th.

In those first seven games, Kuemper’s even strength save percentage of .932 ranked 13^th among 54 goalies to appear in three or more games to that point.  In his last seven games since October 30th, his even strength save percentage of .908 ranks 30^th among 53 goalies to appear in three or more games over that span.  His overall home/road split is not all that confidence inspiring going into Saturday’s game.  While he has an unfortunate win-loss record on the road (1-5-1 in seven games), he does have a save percentage of .921, which ranks 14^th among 55 goalies to appear in at least three road games.  At home, Kuemper is 4-3-0, but his .899 save percentage ranks 28^th of 46 goalies to appear in at least three home games.  He has allowed three of more goals in five of the seven appearances he made at Capital One Arena so far this season.  Kuemper is 4-1-2, 1.90, .928, with three shutouts in nine career meetings against Colorado.

In the end…

The Caps recent history of injuries is well-known to Caps fans.  But it is not as if the Avalanche haven’t felt some pain.  Gabriel Landeskog (knee) and Valeri Nichushkin (ankle) are and will be out for extended periods.  Landeskog has yet to play this season, and Nichushkin was on a blazing start through seven games (7-5-12, plus-1) before he went down.  But the champs are the champs for a reason; they are deep.  Deep in ways the Caps are not so that on paper, the Avs are still the better team.  But the Caps are not without weapons, and they are a veteran team hungry to end their recent slump.  It could make for an interesting back-and-forth contest.

Capitals 5 – Avalanche 3

 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 76: Capitals at Avalanche, April 18th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals scored nine goals against the Philadelphia Flyers and eight against the Montreal Canadiens within the past week.  They were the third and fourth times this season that the Caps scored at least seven goals in a game.  Impressive.  But now they take on a club that might be the gold standard for offense in the league.  The Colorado Avalanche, who the Caps will face at Ball Arena on Monday night, have posted seven or more goals nine times in 75 games this season.  It will be one of the biggest challenges the Caps’ defense and goaltending will face to date.

Seven 20-goal scorers.  Three 30-goal scorers.  Seven skaters with at least 50 points, including two defensemen.  One might be forgiven for thinking that the maintenance staff at Ball Arena frequently changes light bulbs in the goal lamps during games.

Mikko Rantanen is not a household name among hockey fans, perhaps even less so among hockey fans east of the Continental Divide.  But Rantinen is the team leader in goals (36) and points (91) going into this contest.  Still only 25 years old, but in his seventh NHL season, Rantanen has established himself as a reliable and prolific goal scorer.  He has 20 or more goals in each of his six full seasons to date, including this one, and he has topped 30 goals three times in the last four seasons.  His 36 goals this season are a career high, as are his 91 points.  His 16 power play goals to date tie a career best set in 2018-2019.  His production has been rewarded with ice time, his 20:54 per game this season being the most ice time of his career to date.  If there is an odd wrinkle in his season to date, it is that his shooting percentage – 14.6 percent – is the lowest of his career.  Even so, his 16.0 shooting percentage since 2016-2017 is 10^th among 329 skaters with at least 500 shots on goal over that span.

Rantanen, despite his young age, is proceeding smartly up the all-time franchise rankings.  With 165 goals, he needs only two to tie Alex Tanguay for tenth place all-time in Avalanche history.  His 242 assts rank 14^th, as do his 407 points.  He has 65 career power play goals for the Avs, good enough for eighth place on the all-time franchise list, and his 151 power play points rank ninth.  His 23 game-winning goals are tied with Claude Lemieux for 12^th place on the team’s all-time list.  Rantanen has been a bit more productive at home (21-30-51, plus-31, in 36 games) than he has been on the road (15-25-40, plus-7, in 36 games), but not overly so.  What he has been at home is consistent in his scoring.  Only once in those 36 games on home ice did he go consecutive games without a point, and since that occurrence to open March, Rantanen is 7-7-14, plus-6, in nine games at Ball Arena.  Rantanen is 6-6-12, minus-3, in eight career games against the Caps.

Cale Makar gets the lion’s share of attention among Colorado defensemen, and rightly so.  But don’t sleep on the season Devon Toews is having on the Colorado blue line.  His 13 goals are tied for sixth among the league’s defensemen, his 44 assists are tied for ninth, and his 57 points are also tied for ninth among the league’s defensemen.  Toews has three game-winning goals, tied for eight among defensemen.  He has 43 takeaways, tied for 15^th among defensemen.  His plus-52 rating is tied for third among all skaters in the league, while his plus-51 goal differential on ice at even strength ranks fourth among all skaters.  The plus-minus and even strength goal differential are both tops among defensemen.  On all of those measures – goals, assists, points, plus-minus, takeaways – Toews has established career highs.  In fact, his production so far outstrips previous years, this year’s numbers challenge those he compiled over the previous two seasons combined – goals (13 versus 15 over the previous two seasons), assists (44 versus 44), points (57 versus 59), plus-minus (plus-52 versus plus-30).

Unsurprisingly, Toews has been more productive at home (9-23-32, plus-33, in 32 games) than he has on the road (4-21-25, plus-19, in 32 games).  He did suffer a drought on home ice recently, going without a point in six consecutive games, but he followed that up by going 1-3-4, plus-5, over his last four games at Ball Arena.  It might be worth noting that in the fur losses Colorado has on home ice with Toews in the lineup, he failed to record a point.  The Avs are 28-2-2 on home ice with Toews in the lineup.  Toews is 3-3-6, plus-4, in seven career games against Washington.

On a team with as much firepower as Colorado, what happens in the defensive end can be overlooked.  And “overlooked” might be an apt description of Darcy Kuemper’s career.  When considering the best goalies in the game, his name would never come up, but this is a goalie who has the third-best save percentage in the league (.922) since 2017-2018 among 53 goalies with at least 5,000 minutes played.  Seven times in ten NHL seasons, he posted save percentages of .915 or better, four times (including this season) over .920.  He has the best career save percentage in Avalanche history (.925; minimum: 100 minutes) and the fifth-best goals against average (2.41). 

Kuemper has been consistently stingy in allowing goals.  In 48 games in which he played at least 55 minutes, he allowed two or fewer goals 27 times.  His five shutouts are tied for third-most in the league and tie a career high that he set with Arizona in 2018-2019.  He has been almost unbeatable at home, going 20-3-1, 2.41, .922, with one shutout.  He has only one loss in regulation on home ice since October 26^th, going 19-1-1 (four no-decisions).  Oddly enough, though, his road numbers, apart from the win-loss record (16-6-2) are as good or better – 2.41 goals against average, .928 save percentage, and four shutouts.  Kuemper is 1-2-0, 3.06, .914 in three career appearances against Washngton.

1.  Colorado has the best home ice record in the league by points (31-4-3/65 points) and points percentage (.855).

2.  The Avs’ 4.18 goals scored per game is the second-best scoring offense on home ice, trailing only Florida (4.71).

3.  Only Florida has more shots per game on home ice (41.0) than the Avalanche (37.5).

4.  No one is blowing out the Avs on their rink.  Their 13-1 record in games decided at home by three or more goals is best in the league by winning percentage (.929).

5.  The Avs have scored first in 28 of 38 home games, most in the league, and they are one of two teams in the league with no regulation losses on home ice when scoring first (Edmonton is the other).  They are 25-0-3 at home when scoring first.

1.  No team has scored first more on the road than the Caps (25 of 36 road games).  Only Boston and Calgary have more wins when doing so (18 apiece) than the Caps (17).

2.  On the other side, the Caps have the best record in the league when trailing first on the road, by winning percentage (6-3-2/.545).

3.  Washington has 11 wins on the road when outshooting the opposition, 11 wins when they are out-shot.

4.  Only Carolina and Colorado have more third period goals scored in road games (52 apiece) than the Caps (50).

5.  Only Dallas has allowed fewer first period goals in road games (22) than the Caps (23).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Colorado: Nazem Kadri

Nazem Kadri is currently listed as day-to-day with an upper body injury.  As deep as Colorado is on offense, missing the third-leading points player (26-57-83) is bound to have some effect.  It is arguably a career year that Kadri is having, his 83 points in 65 games more than 20 more than his previous career high, 61 points in 82 games with Toronto in 2016-2017.  His 0.40 goals per game matches his scoring rate with Toronto in 2017-2018.  His 28 power play points (eight goals, 20 assists) are a career best.  His 3.51 shots on goal per game are a career high, and his 19:12 in ice time per game is also a career high.

Kadri has been especially adept at spreading the wealth at home, posting 38 assists in 32 home games to date, a team high and second-most in the league behind Florida’s Jonathan Huberdeau (50).  The odd part of his scoring at home is that his shooting is less efficient.  His 9.4 shooting percentage is quite a bit less than his 13.9 percent shooting on the road.  Kadri has been quite consistent in putting up points on home ice this season, doing so in 27 of 32 games at Ball Arena.  Only once this season has he gone consecutive games without a point, going without one over a three-game stretch from January 14^th through January 22^nd.  Kadri is 8-9-17, minus-1, in 24 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Garnet Hathaway

When facing a team with superior skill, make their lives difficult.  Annoy them, get under their skin, get in their way, be physical.  This is the role a player such as Garnet Hathaway plays.  While not quite what one would call an “agitator,” he has the capacity to make opponents wish they were elsewhere doing something else with their time than enduring Hathaway’s badgering up and down the ice.  Not that Hathaway is a player who displays a physical edge at the expense of skill.  In 69 games to date, he already has a career high in goals for a season (13), has equaled a career high in assists (12), posted his first 20-plus point season (25), has a career best plus-20 rating, has four game-winning goals (one off his career best), and he is averaging 13:33 in ice time per game, more than a minute above his previous career high (12:19 set least season).

Speaking of ice time, the Caps are 18-1-3 in the 22 games in which he recorded at least 14:38 in ice time.  And when he engages offensively, good things happen.  The Caps are 12-4-2 in the 18 games in which Hathaway registered at least three shots on goal, and they are also 12-4-2 when he recorded at least one point.  He has nor been quite as productive on the road (7-4-11, plus-9, in 33 games) as he has at home (6-8-14, plus-11, in 36 games), but he has been more efficient in one respect, posting a 13.5 shooting percentage on the road compared to 9.5 percent at home.  Hathaway has yet to record a point against Colorado in ten career games and has a minus-3 rating.

In the end…

Colorado is fast, skilled, and deep.  Their defense is, if anything, underrated or, to a degree, laboring in a quietly effective manner in the shadow of their offense.  It is the type of team that the Caps have struggled against at times this season, and what makes it more difficult is the Avalanche’s domination of opponents on home ice.  A win here would be a statement win of the sort that the Caps could use this late in the season.  But with the Caps’ recent gusher of goals scored (30 in their last five games), It could be a wild ride.

Capitals 6 – Avalanche 5

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 3: Avalanche at Capitals. October 19

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals get an early opportunity to measure themselves against what is arguably the elite team in the Western Conference when the Colorado Avalanche visit Capital One Arena o Tuesday night.  They were the consensus pick of a panel of NHL.com analysts to win the Central Division,. And most picked them to represent the West in the Stanley Cup final.  The Avs split their first two games of the season, both at home, besting the Chicago Blackhawks in the opener, 4-2, and losing to the St. Louis Blues, 5-2, on Saturday.

What the Avs have been in their recent history is a good – sometimes very good – regular season team that disappoints in the postseason, when they get there.  Over the last 11 seasons, Colorado has won more than 40 games four times (in eight full 82-game seasons).  But over those same 11 seasons they reached the playoffs five times (the last four years in succession) reaching the second round three times but never reaching the third round. Colorado is an enormously talented team that should easily top the 100-point mark and perhaps post 50 or more wins, but it’s not about the regular season for this club.

The Caps are fresh off a three-point week, beating the New York Rangers in the season opener, 5-1, and dropping a 2-1 overtime decision to Tampa Bay on Saturday.

1.  Colorado is missing several players. Nathan MacKinnon will not accompany the team on its three-game road trip that begins in Washington, a victim of COVID protocol.   Jack Johnson is also out on COVID protocol, while the injured list (all on IR) includes Stefan Matteau, Valeri Nichushkin, Pavel Francouz, and Devon Toews.

2.  Colorado is 0-for-7 on power plays through two games, one of seven teams yet to score a power play goal.  The team finished eighth on the power play last season (22.7 percent).

3.  The Avalanche are not an especially physical team, or they dominate puck possession (they finished first in shot attempts-on ice at 5-on 5 last season). Their 18.0 hits per 60 minutes is tied for eighth-lowest in the league.

4.  Colorado ranks second in the league in takeaways-per-60 minutes (14.5).

5.  The Avs are tied for second in missed shots per game (15.0). Only Toronto ranks higher (17.7).

1.  It is only two games, but the Caps are tied for third in the league in scoring defense (1.50 goals allowed per game).

2.  The Caps are one of eight teams with a net power play of 100.0 percent, having allowed one power play goal and scoring a shorthanded goal of their own.

3.  Washington has allowed 24.0 shots on goal per game, second fewest in the league (San Jose: 23.0).

4.  Three skaters have sh0orthanded goals so far in league play, all whose first names start with the letter “A.”  Andrew Cogliano, Andrew Copp, and the Caps’ Alex Ovechkin.

5.  The Caps are the only team in the league that has yet to allow a goal in either the first or second periods of games.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Colorado: Darcy Kuemper

Goaltender Darcy Kuemper has been around.  The Colorado Avalanche, who obtained Kuemper in July via trade (the price was a first-round draft pick in 2022, a conditional third-round draft pick in 2024, and defenseman Conor Timmins), are Kuemper’s fourth NHL team.  He spent his first five seasons with the Minnesota Wild (a sixth-round pick by the Wild in the 2000 Entry Draft), a brief stay (19 games) with Los Angeles, and three-and-a-half seasons with Arizona before settling in with the Avalanche.  With the three teams he played for before Colorado, Kuemper never had a goals against average over 2.60 and never had a save percentage under .910.  He gets little notice among the goaltenders in the NHL, but he has been a solid performer in his nine NHL seasons preceding this one.  He has, however, gotten off to a slow start in Colorado, going 1-1-0, 3.09, .902 in his two appearances so far.  Kuemper is 1-1-0, 2.03, .939 in two career appearances against the Capitals.

Washington: Nick Jensen

Oh, if it had only counted.  Nick Jensen does not have a goal on his ledger so far this season, but his one-timer off a rush that was subsequently overturned for being offside was a thing of beauty, an Ovechkinesque drive from Ovechkin’s office that beat New York Ranger goalie Alexandar Georgiev cleanly over his glove on the far side.

But Jensen’s stock in trade is defense – anticipating opponents’ moves, moving the puck out of harm’s way, keeping opponents from doing what they want to do, where they want to do it.  Jensen does not have a point yet this season and has only three shots on goal, but he has averaged 20:30 in ice time over two games (third among Caps defensemen), has four hits (most among defensemen), has been on ice for only one even strength goal against, and has an unblocked shots at even strength differential of plus-2 (second best among defensemen).  Jensen made great strides with the Caps last year when partnered with Zdeno Chara. Whether the lessons have been etched permanently in Jensen’s game remains to be seen, but he is off to a good start, even without the highlight reel non-goal.  Jensen is 0-1-1, minus-3, in seven career appearances against Colorado.

In the end…

On paper, Colorado is better.  But then again, the Caps are 10-2-0 against Colorado over their last dozen meetings, outscoring them by a 44-32 margin and posting a 29.3 percent power play.  They even won 52.3 percent of the faceoffs between the teams, a bit odd given the Caps’ challenges in this area.  The Avalanche will be playing their first game of their first road trip of the season, a trip that will continue against the Florida Panthers on Thursday and the Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday.  It is a challenging trip for Colorado, and the Caps are certainly in a position to get the Avalanche off to a poor start on their journey.

Capitals 5 – Avalanche 4

 

 

A TWO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 57: Capitals 3 - Avalanche 2

The Washington Capitals opened their three-game road trip with a visit to Pepsi Center in Denver to face the Colorado Avalanche.  The Caps were looking to avoid a third straight loss, while the Avalanche were trying to post a sixth consecutive win.  It looked grim for the Caps early, the Avs going out to a 2-0 lead in the first period.  But the Caps slowly ground the home team down and used a critical penalty kill when two men short for a minute late in the second period as a momentum changer, catching and passing the Avs late to finish with a 3-2 win.

First Period

It did not take the Avs long to post the first goal of the game, and it would be, fittingly enough given the Caps’ recent woes, a former Cap to do the damage.  At the Caps’ blue line, Nathan MacKinnon tried to walk around John Carlson, and Carlson snapped the shaft of his stick trying to defend.  That created a 2-on-1 advantage for the Avs, with Michal Kempny back.  MacKinnon was patient enough to wait out Kempny until the latter went to the ice, and MacKinnon slid the puck across to Andre Burakovsky at the bottom of the right wing circle for a one-timer that beat goalie Braden Holtby on the near side to make it 1-0, Colorado, 2:54 into the game.

The Caps spent the next dozen minutes hanging on against the speed of the Avalanche, who kept the Caps pinned their own end.  Colorado then got the game’s first power play when T.J. Oshie was sent off at the 16:36 mark for high-sticking.  It took the Avalanche less than 30 seconds to convert the man advantage.  Skating down the right side, MacKinnon left the puck for Mikko Rantanen along the right wing wall.  Rantanen cut to the middle and shooting across his body, snapped the puck into the top corner over Holtby’s glove to make it 2-0, 16:05 into the period.

That would be the extent of the scoring, the Caps barely threatening, and Braden Holtby doing a good job keeping the Caps with a pair after the first 20 minutes.

-- Colorado out-shot the Caps, 11-8, in the period and out-attempted them, 21-11.

-- Want to know if the Avs had the puck a lot?  Three Caps had three credited hits apiece – Dmitry Orlov, Radko Gudas, and T.J. Oshie.

-- John Carlson led the Caps with 8:03 in ice time in the period.

Second Period

Washington went shorthanded for a second time when Lars Eller was sent to the penalty box for slashing 6:49 into the period.  The Caps killed that penalty, allowing a single shot on goal.  Their effort was rewarded shortly thereafter when they were awarded their first power play of the evening, Tyson Jost going off for high-sticking at 10:32 of the period.  The Caps converted their chance when Nicklas Backstrom backed across the blue paint to the right of goalie Philipp Grubauer to put himself in position to accept a pass from Jakub Vrana, who was setting up along the right wing wall.  Vrana’s pass was right on the tape, and Backstrom merely had to redirect the puck past the right pad of Grubauer to get the Caps within a goal at the 11:37 mark.

Washington went right back on the power play when Erik Johnson went to the penalty box for a high-sticking penalty.  The Caps were unable to convert, though, putting one shot on goal in the two minutes. 

The march to the penalty boxes continued when the Caps’ Nic Dowd went off for holding at the 15:47 mark.  It became a 5-on-3 advantage for Colorado when Lars Eller chipped the puck over the glass for a delay of game penalty at 16:47 of the period.  The Caps killed off the 60 seconds of 3-on-5 penalty killing, and then the remaining time of the 4-on-5 situation.  They were rewarded with a power play of their own when Joonas Donskoi was called for slashing at the 18:57 mark.  The Caps could not convert the first 63 seconds of the man advantage, and the teams went to the dressing room with the Avs clinging to their 2-1 lead.

-- Jakub Vrana led the Caps with five shots on goal through two periods.

-- Nic Dowd was 8-for-9 on faceoffs through 40 minutes.  The rest of the team was 8-for-35 (22.9 percent).

-- The teams had 11 shots apiece in the second period; the Avs had a 17-16 edge in shot attempts.

Third Period

The Caps opened the period on the power play that carried over from the end of the second period but could not get the equalizer.  The Caps tilted the ice in the Avs’ direction over the next ten minutes and eventually got the home team to take another penalty, Burakovsky going off for high-sticking at the 11:13 mark.

The Caps had a chance when Grubauer left a rebound laying in the crease on an Ovechkin shot, but he was able to stymie Vrana’s follow-up attempt from point-blank range.  The Caps put one past Grubauer, though, when Lars Eller circled in the right wing corner and fed the puck back to John Carlson at the point.  Carlson’s drive was re-directed out of mid-air by Wilson, down and through Grubauer at the 12:48 mark.

The Caps took their first lead of the game late in the period.  Lars Eller worked the puck free below the Colorado goal line and fed it out to Nick Jensen at the right point.  Jensen worked the puck back and forth, getting Gabriel Landeskog moving side to side and opening a shooting lane.  Jensen fired, and T.J. Oshie redirected the puck past Grubauer’s right pad to give the Caps a 3-2 lead at the 17:56 mark, a lead the Caps would maintain over the last 2:04 to defeat the Avalanche.

Other Stuff…

-- The Caps came back from a two-goal deficit for the eighth time this season, tied with Dallas for most in the league.

-- Braden Holtby kept the Caps in this one. He allowed two goals on the first nine shots he faced, neither of which could be attributed to a mistake on his part, but then he slammed the door, stopping the last 25 shots he faced, many of them from high-danger areas until the Caps started wearing the Avs down late.  It was bizarre that he did not get a star for the game.

-- The Caps finished the game out-shooting the Avalanche, 38-34 and out-attempting them, 62-54.

-- Jakub Vrana finished with a career high ten shots on goal to lead the team.

-- That 700^th goal for Alex Ovechkin will have to wait, but he’s close.  He had seven shots on goal and 16 shot attempts.

-- It was a brutal night in the faceoff circle for the Caps.  Nic Dowd finished 9-for-11, but the rest of the team was 18-for-59 (30.5 percent).

--  The Caps had a total of 11 power play shots on goal from seven different players in 8:40 of power play ice time.

-- The Avs came into the game having scored 80 second period goals, most in the league.  The Caps shut them out, only the sixth team to keep the Avalanche from scoring in the second period on home ice in 27 games in Denver.

-- This was only the second time in their last ten road games that the Caps allowed fewer than three goals.

-- John Carlson had a pair of assists to give him 69 points and bring him to within one point of becoming only the fifth defenseman to post more than one 70-point season since 2005-2006.

In the end…

For 20 minutes it looked as if this game would go the same way the game between these teams went in Washington last October when the Avalanche won, 6-3.  But the Caps found their legs and an attitude in the second period, pushing and keeping the home team to the outside.  The 5-on-3 penalty kill late in the second period was huge, a classic momentum changer.  The Caps, after playing the Avs’ speed game for the first 30 minutes, forced the home team to play a game more to the Caps’ liking in the third period, and that made all the difference in what might have been the Caps’ best effort in the new year to date.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 57: Capitals at Avalanche, February 13th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals take on the Colorado Avalanche at Pepsi Center in the first of a three-game road swing on Thursday night.  Washington will be trying to avoid a third straight loss for only the second time this season, while the streaking Avalanche look to make it six wins in a row and nine wins in ten games.

Then and Now…

Thursday will mark the 87^th meeting in the all-time series between the Capitals and the Avalanche, including games against the Quebec Nordiques before the club moved to Denver in the 1995-1996 season.  Washington has a 44-32-1 (nine ties) record against the Avs in the all-time series, 20-18-0 (five ties) on the road.  Since 2005-2006, the Caps are 12-7-0 against Colorado, 6-3-0 in Denver.  The Caps have won nine of the last 11 meetings in this series, one of the losses a 6-3 decision in Washington in the team’s only other meeting this season on October 14^th.

Active Leaders vs. Opponent…

Noteworthy Opponents…

These days, the debate over best player in the league centers, so to speak, on the arguments for and against Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby.  Among underrated players, the consensus is that Aleksander Barkov holds that title.  But if there is an underrated player in the conversation of best player in the league, Nathan MacKinnon might get more than a few votes.  The first overall pick of the 2013 Entry Draft took a little while to take his place among the best in the game, failing to match his rookie numbers of 24 goals and 63 points in any of his next three seasons, but over the last three seasons he has made up for lost time.  He was one of only four players in the league to finish each of the previous two seasons with 90 or more points (McDavid, Nikita Kucherov, and Blake Wheeler were the others), and with 78 points in 55 games this season (third in the league in points per game), he is on a pace to finish the season with a career-high 116 points.  He already has 32 goals, making him one of five players to post 30 or more goals in each of the last three seasons (McDavid, Alex Ovechkin, Auston Matthews, and David Pastrnak are the others).  He and Kucherov are the only players in the league who, over the last three seasons, combined for a total of at least 100 goals, at least 250 points, and a plus-minus of plus-30 or better.

MacKinnon has not gone consecutive games without a point since being blanked in Games 14 and 15 for the Avs in early November.  He has gone 40 games since without consecutive games without a point, going 24-36-60 since then, his point total tied with Artemi Panarin and Leon Draisaitl for most in the league in that span.  He goes into this contest carrying a five-game points streak and is 8-12-20 in 15 games since the start of the new year, five of those games being multi-point efforts on home ice, including his last three games at Pepsi Center.  MacKinnon is 6-9-15, plus-4, in 12 career games against the Caps.

At this point the Calder Trophy race for top rookie in the league appears to be a two-defenseman race – Quinn Hughes of the Vancouver Canucks and Cale Makar of the Avalanche.  Hughes has more points (44 to 42), while Makar has more goals (12 to 8).  Makar has the better plus-minus rating (plus-10 to minus-4), while Hughes has more power play points (21 to 17).  Hughes has the only overtime goal scored by a rookie defenseman this season, but Makar leads all rookie defensemen in game-winning goals (four, tied with Dallas’ Denis Gurianov for the overall lead among rookie skaters).  And it is not as if Makar’s contributions have been “empty calories.”  The Avs are 9-1-0 in the ten games in which he has goals, 24-6-1 in the 31 games in which he has points.  On the other hand, he might still be that young defenseman whose ice time needs to be regulated.  His high ice time volumes in games might be the product of trying to get him, and his offensive gifts, on the ice in games in which the Avs trail, but the team is still 4-8-3 in the 15 games in which he skated at least 22 minutes.

Makar has been productive of late, having a four-game point streak (1-4-5) snapped in his last game when the Avs shutout Ottawa, 3-0, on Tuesday.  Over his last 11 games overall he is 3-7-10, and in his last nine games on home ice he is 3-5-8.  In his only career appearance against the Caps, last October, he had an assist and was plus-1.

Philipp Grubauer has had a bit of an uneven season in his second year with Colorado after spending his first six seasons with the Caps.  So far this season, he has three winning streaks of at least three games and two losing streaks of at least three games.  It is not unlike his running record last season, at least on the winning side, when he posted three streaks of three wins or more.  As it is, in just his second season with the club Grubauer is within striking distance of getting into the top-ten in wins in franchise history, his 36 wins to date being six short of Jose Theodore (42) for tenth place on the franchise career win list. Among 19 goalies in franchise history to appear in 50 or more games, he is fifth in goals against average (2.64) and second in save percentage (.916, to Patrick Roy’s .918).  With five shutouts in two seasons in Colorado, he needs only two more to tie Craig Anderson for fifth place on the all-time franchise list.  If he gets the call against the Caps on Thursday and does not get pulled early, he will become the 13^th goalie in franchise history to log at least 4,000 minutes.

Grubauer brings a four-game winning streak into this contest, stopping 113 of 116 shots (.974 save percentage) and shutting out the Ottawa Senators in his last appearance on Tuesday.  He has been hot on home ice as well, going 4-0-1 in his last five appearances, stopping 133 of 142 shots (.937) and posting shutouts over San Jose and Ottawa.  Grubauer is 1-0-1, 3.01, .902 in two career appearances against the Caps.

1.  Only three teams have scored five or more goals on more occasions overall than Colorado (15) – Vancouver (19), Florida (18), and the Caps (18).  Oddly enough, they have done it only six times at home, tied for 12^th-most frequent in the league.

2.  The Avs do not lack for power play chances.  The have had 191 man advantages so far this season, second only to Vancouver (205).

3.  Colorado applies pressure early. Their 61 first period goals rank second in the league (Edmonton has 62), and their 80 second period goals are most in the league.

4.  The Avalanche have scored first 35 times in 55 games.  No team has scored first more often (Boston also has done so 35 times).  Their 25 wins when scoring first are tied with Tampa Bay for most in the league.  However, they are just 10-3-4 when scoring first on home ice, their .588 winning percentage ranking 25^th.

5.  How to beat the Avalanche?  Get them in a close game.  They have only one one-goal win this season on home ice, tied for fewest in the league with Arizona.  Then again, they have only six one-goal decisions in 26 home games, fewest in the league. Their 1-1-4 record in one-goal decisions on home ice is the second worst, by winning percentage (.167).  Only Arizona is worse (1-4-4/.111).

1.  No team has spent more time on ice per game shorthanded overall than the Caps (6:01).

2.  Washington has nine one-goal wins on the road this season, third-most in the league (Calgary and Tampa Bay have ten apiece).  Their .750 winning percentage in one-goal games on the road (9-2-1) ranks fourth.

3.  The Caps’ 13 wins when scoring first on the road are second-most in the league (Colorado: 15), and their winning percentage of .929 (13-1-0) is best in the league.

4.  The Caps are one of four teams in the league with perfect records when leading after one period on the road (Pittsburgh, Colorado, and the New York Islanders are the others), and the Caps have the most wins in the group (9-0-0).

5.  Washington closes road games with a rush.  Their 41 third period goals in road games are most in the league, as is their plus-9 third period goal differential on the road.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Colorado: Andre Burakovsky

He scored a goal on the fourth shift of his first game as a Washington Capital.  Yes, it was in a 2-1 Gimmick loss to the Montreal Canadiens in October 2014, but for Andre Burakovsky it was a hopeful signal of good things ahead in his career as a Capital.  However, in five seasons with the club he showed intermittent flashes of brilliance to go with stretches of play when he seemed absent on the ice. His last goal as a Capital, the first goal just 2:13 into Game 7 against the Carolina Hurricanes in last spring’s 4-3 overtime elimination at the hands of the Hurricanes, seemed just a bit too much on point as a symbol of his career in Washington – early promise but more than a bit disappointing in the end.  The end of his career in Washington came quietly last June when he was traded to Colorado for Scott Kosmachuk, a second round pick in the 2020 Entry Draft and a third round pick in 2020 Entry Draft. 

Sometimes, a change of scenery does a player good, and it has been the case for Burakovsky, who just celebrated his 25th birthday last Sunday.  His 17 goals in 52 games this season have already matched his career high, set in 79 games in his sophomore season in Washington in 2015-2016.  His 41 points are already a career best, topping the 38 points he had with the Caps in that 2015-2016 season.  He has taken on a bigger role in Colorado, averaging a career high 14:47 in ice time per game, and with the additional ice time has come a more assertive (1.79 shots per game, a career high) and more efficient game (18.3 percent shooting, another career high).

What Burakovsky has not done lately, conjuring up memories of his time with the Caps, is score at home.  He has two goals on home ice in his last 15 games at Pepsi Center, both in a 5-3 win over the St. Louis Blues on January 18th.  The slump is part of a broader home-road split that is contrarian to the usual assumptions.  He is 6-12-18, minus-4, at home, but he is 11-12-23-plus-14 in road games this season.  He does have a four-game points streak on home ice coming into this game and points in six of his last seven games at Pepsi Center.  He had an assist and was plus-1 in the Avs’ 6-3 win in Washington in October, his only career appearance against the Caps.

Washington: Richard Panik

For a while there, it looked as if Richard Panik would shake of his early season doldrums (two goals in his first 25 games) and become a regular third line contributor when he posted three goals in seven games to end the old year and start the new one.  However, since he scored the game’s first goal in the Caps’ 4-3 win in Carolina over the Hurricanes on January 3^rd, he has only two goals in his last 14 games, both of them coming in a 5-4 loss to Nashville on January 29^th.

Panik has had a difficult first year with the Caps after signing as an unrestricted free agent last July.  One of the big differences between his performance this season and his performance in recent years is as simple as shooting the puck.  In three seasons prior to this one, he averaged 1.89 shots per game in 2016-2017, 1.89 shots per game in 2017-2018, and 1.87 shots per game last season.  His shots on goal per game have dropped by more than a third through 46 games this season (1.20 per game).  And although his shooting percentage is respectable (12.7 percent), he is on a pace to finish with just 11 goals, tying his career low for goals scored in a season in which he played more than 50 games (11 in 76 games in 2014-2015 with Toronto, his third year in the league).

If there is a ray of hope here, it is that after going his first 11 road games of the season without a point, Panik is 3-2-5 in his last ten road contests.  Odd Panik fact…. In 21 road games played so far this season, Panik posted a minus rating in a game only once (minus-1 in a 6-4 win over the New York Islanders on January 18^th).  Panik is 5-3-8, plus-5, in 14 career games against Colorado.

In the end…

The Caps have been a Jekyll and Hyde sort of club when it comes to defense at home and on the road lately.  They allowed four or more goals in four of their last five home games (with a record of 1-4-0) before heading out on this road trip, while they held opponents to fewer than four goals in four of their last five games on the road (with a record of 4-1-0).

Going into Colorado and trying to get out with a win against a team with that much firepower is a challenge, and it will be a bigger one with one of the Caps’ big guns – Evgeny Kuznetsov – injured.  But this is a deep team, when they are playing well, and Lars Eller has had success when called upon to move up a line.  With these two teams ranked one-two in scoring offense, it still has the makings of a wild one.

Capitals 6 – Avalanche 5