The Morning After

No points tonight . . .

What’r ya gonna do?

If you look at the Caps’ 3-2 loss last night to the Ottawa Senators in the context of what’s been going on lately, one might be tempted to say, “same old, same old.” The 13th loss in the last 19 games, playoff chances bleeding away.

But look at the game on its own merits. The Caps certainly didn’t play badly in the first period; they just didn’t play as well as they needed to out of the gate. Ottawa scored on a screen and an odd play off an errant shot in the first period, creating the hole (again) that the Caps found themselves needing to dig free of. It wasn’t as if the Senators dominated a clearly inferior team. And, the Caps did outplay Ottawa over the last 40 minutes. Alex Ovechkin summed up the overall 60 minutes – “"I thought we played very well today. We had lots of chances. We played hard, we skated fast and we checked, but we didn't score. That was the key."

Unfortunately, the Caps didn’t have as many chances, didn’t play quite as hard, didn’t skate as fast or checked as enthusiastically, and certainly didn’t score in the first period. Getting outscored 2-0 in the first period last night brings the first period scoring over this 6-13-0 skid to 31-16, the Caps on the short end. No club can spend its energy, night after night after night, crawling out from under the pile of goals they’re giving up early. The NHL is really a front-runner’s game. Clubs that get an early lead or take one into the first intermission are likely to be the winner. Only two clubs in the entire league have a winning percentage below .500 when scoring first, and no club – none – has a below-.500 winning percentage when leading after one period. The Caps are being bludgeoned into an early off season by this truth.

Looking at the numbers . . .

13:42 – that was the ice time Mike Green got last night, coming on the heels of only 8:22 in his last game. And again, his ice time late suffered – two shifts in the last eight minutes of the second period, three in the last 12 minutes of the game (all of them in the last seven minutes when the Caps were looking for the equalizer). But even this wasn’t quite like the . . .

8:36 . . . the time Kris Beech got. Five shifts in the last 39 minutes of the game after taking a holding penalty at the end of the first period.

55 . . . Jeff Schultz had another pretty solid game. 17 minutes and change, two hits, two blocked shots, and he wasn’t on the ice for any Ottawa goals. He wasn’t being matched against the Heatley line, but still a pretty decent effort.

32 . . . that’s how many times Glen Hanlon tapped Boyd Gordon’s shoulder to take a shift. No Cap player had more. Maybe it had something to do with winning 10 of 17 draws. And here is the odd part about those numbers – he took no draws in the offensive end; he was the designated faceoff guy in the defensive end (winning 7 of 12). Folks are going to be calling him, “Yanic,” before too long.

Stealing a point in a game like this could have been a huge lift, especially coming on the heels of the big win against Carolina on Saturday. But now the momentum has been halted, and the Caps get to face those pesky Panthers tomorrow. And on top of that, there is the temptation to peek ahead at the game Saturday against Pittsburgh. This is an even harder week than it looks to be on paper.

The Peerless Prognsoticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Senators, January 30th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It doesn’t exactly get easier. The Caps head up to Scotiabank Place a couple of weeks after enduring a 5-2 loss to take on the Ottawa Senators, 12-2-1 in their last 15 games.* What is odd about that is that the Senators have suffered both regulation losses and the overtime loss at home. Of course, when the club has played 11 of those last 15 games at home, perhaps it’s not so unusual. Some fun facts from those 15 games:

- Ottawa outscored its opposition 59 - 29
- Power Play: 13/68 (19.1%)
- Penalty Kill: 55/60 (91.7%)
- 17 different skaters share the 59 goals scored
- Seven times the Senators have scored five or more goals
- More than a third of the goal production has come from two players: Dany Heatley (10-14-27, +17) and Daniel Alfredsson (10-13-23, +16)
- Ottawa scored first in 11 of the 15 games and went 10-0-1 in those games.
- Ottawa finished strong in games; their scoring by period was 14-21-23-1. By comparison, goals allowed by period were 7-9-12-1.

The Caps are a mirror image of the Senators over their own last 15 games . . .

- The Caps are 5-10-0
- Washington was outscored by its opposition 58 - 48
- Power Play: 14/80 (17.5%)
- Penalty Kill: 66/79 (83.5%)
- 14 different skaters share the 48 goals scored
- Four times the Caps have scored five or more goals
- Almost half of the goal production has come from two players: Alexander Semin (14-5-19, -3) and . . . Chris Clark (8-3-11, -5)
- Washington scored first in five of the 15 games and went 3-2-0 in those games.
- Washington started poorly in games, getting outscored 26-15 in the first period over the last 15 games.

And here is your big number – well, two actually . . . 18 and -20. That would be the number of goals the first line (Alex Ovechkin, Dainius Zubrus, and Chris Clark) has scored and their combined plus-minus over the last 15 games.

Gosh . . . you’d think it might not even be a good idea to make the trip.

Balderdash!

The Caps are 13-9-0 against teams that had at least 100 standings points last year. OK, so 4-0-0 of that is against Philadelphia, who are exploring new vistas in suck. The Caps are 2-1-0 against Ottawa this year, outscoring the Senators 12-10. The Caps have shown an ability to compete with talented clubs. The obvious key here is in who scores first. It has been Ottawa’s defining winning ingredient over the last 15 games, and it has been the Caps’ downfall over the same stretch. And what gets folded into that is keeping Alfredsson and Heatley quiet while getting the top line off on the plus side – it can’t be just about scoring for those guys. For all that, the player to watch is goaltender Olaf Kolzig. This is a club against which he has struggled – 8-13-3 lifetime, 3.46 GAA, .886 SV. But the last time he faced this club – 35 saves on 37 shots in a 6-2 win on December 6. If he can help keep Alfredsson and Heatley quiet until the Caps get their legs under them, this could be a good night.

Caps 4 – Senators 3

* Note: this was written before the Senators' 3-1 loss to Montreal last evening...

You want to be this goalie?

That was the unfortunate Jeff Frazee, goaltender of the Minnesota Golden Gophers, failing to contend with the bouncing puck off the stick of Robbie Bina of the University of North Dakota Fighting Sioux (insert politically acceptable name here) last Saturday night.

Jeff? . . . meet Sebastien Caron.

The tough row to hoe

The Caps have completed 50 games -- 32 remain on the regular season schedule. In those 32 games they have to find a way to climb past four teams to makeup a five point deficit between themselves and eighth place. Here is the challenge . . .

The 32 games remaining involve opponents against whom the Caps have a combined record of 14-18-5. The Caps have been outscored 132-114, not including shootout losses. If one weights these numbers for the number of times the Caps have yet to play each of these opponents, the task appears even more daunting.

It is in this context that the Caps have to win, in The Peerless' estimation, at least 43 points in the 32 remaining games. That would give them 92, the number of the eighth-place finisher last year.

Is it doable? Yes. But what it means is that there are no longer teams on the schedule that the Caps should beat. Those teams are now in the "must beat" category. Given last year's results, there are probably no more than 10 regulation losses in the Caps' remaining schedule that can be sustained (and this assumes no more than one more shootout/overtime loss -- points cannot be left on the table at this point).

A tough row, indeed.

What do the following have in common?

HGTV's "Design on a Dime"
Discovery Channel's "Mythbusters"
Bravo's "Top Chef"
Food Network's "Ace of Cakes"
TV Land's "The Andy Griffith Show"


More people watched them than the NHL All-Star Game last Wednesday night.

Hey, The Peerless thinks that there are worse things in life than gazing at Padma Lakshmi talking about food, but this is past ridiculous, it's embarrassing.

The league got cost certainty in its collective bargaining agreement. It got it at the expense of anyone actually watching the game. Praise the Commissioner for one, if you wish, but what does one do about the television situation?

Draw your own conclusions, dear reader.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, Part Deux

It was a two-point night!

Carolina was better . . .

Last night’s 7-3 win by the Caps over the Hurricanes was an effort by two teams to give away two points. Carolina was better. A lot better.

The Caps rushed to a 3-0 lead in the first 13 minutes on a pair of goals by Alexander Semin sandwiching one by Alex Ovechkin. The last two in that series were directly attributable to sloppy puck handling on the part of the Hurricanes, who all but handed the puck to the Alexes for their scores.

That should have ended the competitive portion of the evening, but when you’re 5-12-0 in your last 17 games, nothing is so simple as that. The Caps gave one back when Justin Williams sent a drive from the right wing point past Olaf Kolzig, who was having to contend with Andrew Ladd’s backside firmly planted against the cage of his mask. Compared to the iffy goaltender interference call against Jakub Klepis the previous night, that qualified as assault.

Worse was what followed. Mike Green chose just about the worst time to nonchalant the recovery of the puck at the top of his own zone, reaching out with one hand to try and corral the biscuit. He missed, and Carolina ended up burying the puck behind Kolzig moments later. That would be the last ice time Green would see for almost nine minutes. He ended up with just over eight minutes for the game – his lowest total (except for a game in which he was injured) this year. Welcome back from Young Stars, kid.

But this was a night for highlight plays. Alexander Semin had a pair of such – once backing the Hurricane defense in before roofing the puck over Cam Ward’s glove, later picking the pocket of Erik Cole and racing the length of the ice to – yup – roof the puck over Ward’s catching glove.

Alexander Ovechkin had a couple of his own – one coming on a Carolina giveaway deep in its own end, when he collected the puck and ripped a laser of a wrist shot – uh huh – past Ward’s glove. The other came on some of the sickest stick work you’ll see this year. From the left wing boards, Ovechkin used Mike Commodore, Scott Walker, Andrew Ladd, and Eric Staal like skating pylons to thread his way free off the boards and snake a pass to Kris Beech at the right wing hash marks. Beech had only to one-time the puck past Ward’s – well, you know – for the goal.

And even the new kid got in on the action – Eric Fehr had a memorable 11 minutes. Skating with Alexander Semin, Fehr waited as Semin moved out from the left wing boards between Erik Cole and David Tanabe and pushed the puck to the middle. Instead of trying to curl the puck on his own blade, Semin left it for Fehr, who rifled a wrist shot past Ward’s . . . blocker (thought I was going to say “glove,” didn’t you?). It was the game-winner for the evening. The Peerless was even more impressed with what Fehr did a short time later. Harrassing Dennis Seidenberg in the Carolina end, he picked the defenseman clean and in one motion fired a wrist shot that Ward barely tipped over the net. That was a play of will as much as skill on Fehr's part (and it didn't hurt to be 6'4", either).

This was a game of mistakes. The club that made most of them was going to pay, and tonight it was Carolina who wrote the check. The Hurricanes must have thought the Caps would roll toes up after the results of the previous night, but if there is one thing the Caps can do, it is muster up an effort against a superior opponent – they’ve done that several times this year (Buffalo, Ottawa, Atlanta, Dallas, to name a few). There are no eye-popping numbers leaping out of this game, although there are two that caught The Peerless’ eye. First, faceoffs. The Caps won that battle for the first time in six games against Carolina this year (30-28). The second was hits. As generous as the official scorer was with spreading them around in Carolina (61-33, Caps), he was frugal with them last night (18-14, Caps).

As for the keys to the games we spoke of a couple of days ago:

Get off fast (score first) – Scoring the first three goals would qualify as getting off fast. For the sixth straight time first on the board wins.

Be aggressive (out-hit Carolina) – 18-14 doesn’t seem to reflect the level of contact in this game, but the Caps did win that battle.

Shoot the damn puck – For the first time in three wins, the Caps did not have 30 shots (23)

Make sure the usual suspects are represented on the score sheet – The big line (Ovechkin-Zubrus-Clark), plus Semin, were 4-3-7 for the night

The Peerless is going to toss a bag o’ chips to Ben Clymer. Clymer had one shift last night on which he was a one-man forechecking crew. He might have had all 18 hits for the Caps on that shift alone. Although he is dimly reflected on the scoresheet (no shots, one hit credited . . . one??), he put forth a fine effort.

Another goes to Jeff Schultz, who played his best game since his recall. And by “best,” The Peerless doesn’t mean “highlight reel” best. He was patient and careful in his own end, for the most part, and was sturdy on his feet. He led the club with a +4 in more than 19 minutes of work, including leading all defensemen in penalty killing time.

The confounding thing about this club is that on any given night, they can put together a game like this, where the offensive cylinders are firing, Olaf Kolzig makes the saves he has to make when he has to make them, and the defense isn’t ECHL level (although a couple of guys had their moments last night). The trick is being able to do it on a consistent basis. When that happens – and note we said “when” – they will be a contender.

Oh, and Cam? . . . It looked like you had one of these on last night.

A Special Peerless Prognosticator Panel

Desperate times call for desperate measures.. After last night’s 6-2 defeat at the hands of the Carolina Hurricanes, The Peerless has taken it upon himself to call upon the legends of coaching to find a way for the Caps to get out of their six-week funk. Our panel today includes . . .

Vince Lombardi, legendary coach of the Green Bay Packers…
“Hey, how are ya?”

John Wooden, famed coach of the UCLA Bruins basketball team…
“Good morning.”

Knute Rockne, the greatest coach in storied Notre Dame football history…
“Glad to be here.”

Casey Stengel, the ‘”Ol’ Perfesser” of the New York Yankees…
“It’s amazin’ to be here.”

And John Madden – football coach, analyst, commentator, and raconteur.
“Hey, Peerless, how are ya?”

Gentlemen, let’s get right to it. The Caps are deep in a hole – 13th place, looking up at five teams to get into the playoffs. They have 33 games to play. How to they right their ship? Coach Lombardi?

Vince Lombardi: “Dictionary is the only place that success comes before work. Hard work is the price we must pay for success. I think you can accomplish anything if you're willing to pay the price.”

Knute Rockne: “I used to tell my boys, ‘It's up to us to show them what we've got. Let's get down to business and carry the mail.’”

So what you’re saying is, there’s no substitute for hard work or excuse for putting out less than 100 percent?

Casey Stengel: “yeah, I used to say, ‘If we're going to win the pennant, we've got to start thinking we're not as good as we think we are.’”

So maybe the Caps think they’re better than they are?

John Wooden: “Perhaps. I think it’s important that you don't measure yourself by what you have accomplished, but by what you should have accomplished with your ability.”

Lombardi: “But I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, his greatest fulfillment of all he holds dear, is the moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious.”

Stengel: “And ya can’t baby these guys. I told one kid, ‘Son, we'd like to keep you around this season but we're going to try and win a pennant.’”

Rockne: (laughs) “We had the same thing at Notre Dame. I told ‘em, ‘do you want to bring shame on Notre Dame! Are you afraid to get sweat? You are gonna sweat all the way out to your fingernails!’ That got their attention.”

Lombardi: “Absolutely. If you aren't fired with enthusiasm, you will be fired with enthusiasm.”

Wooden: “And that’s why character is important. Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are.”

Well, the Caps were riding high back in December – 15-10-7. Things looked good. They’ve been 5-12-0 since, and…

Wooden: “Adversity is the state in which man mostly easily becomes acquainted with himself.”

You’re saying the Caps can find an identity in this?

Rockne: “It’s like football. Football is a game played with arms, legs and shoulders but mostly from the neck up.”

Lombardi: “It's not whether you get knocked down, it's whether you get up.”

One problem that I see in this is that players start playing outside the system – either trying to do too much themselves or playing for their own stats. What do you gentlemen think?

Lombardi: “Individual commitment to a group effort - that is what makes a team work, a company work, a society work, a civilization work.”

Rockne: “The secret is to work less as individuals and more as a team. As a coach, I play not my eleven best, but my best eleven.”

Wooden: “The main ingredient of stardom is the rest of the team.”

Stengel: “All I ask is that you bust your heiny on that field.”

The Caps have 33 games left and a hard path to clear. If you were going to walk into the locker room tonight before their game against Carolina, what would you tell them?

Stengel: “You gotta lose 'em some of the time. When you do, lose 'em right.”

Wooden: “Do not let what you cannot do interfere with what you can do.”

Rockne: “No star playing, just hockey.”

Lombardi: “Life's battles don't always go to the stronger or faster man. But sooner or later the man who wins, is the man who thinks he can.”

Coach Madden?...You’ve been pretty quiet. Anything to add?

Madden: “Uh . . . you got any turducken?”

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Hurricanes

No points last night . . .

Thud.

That would be the sound of playoff chances falling off the shelf after the Caps’ 6-2 loss in Raleigh last night against the Carolina Hurricanes. One could say if this happened or that, or if this team went into a slump and the Caps beat this team or that the Caps could sneak in, but the fact of the matter is, the Caps are now a below-.500 team with 33 games to play, and every team in front of them leading up to the eighth spot is an above-.500 team. All but one of them (Toronto) have games in hand on the Caps. Putting those playoff chances back in place is going to be a difficult task.

The 6-2 loss was especially instructive as to the current state of the team. When the season started, The Peerless thought that an injury would reveal the troubles the club had with respect to skill and depth, but we thought that sort of injury would be of the catastrophic kind – to an Olaf Kolzig or an Alexander Ovechkin. We didn’t contemplate that the Caps would be undone by a series of what are comparative bumps and bruises – a series of injuries (which we do not wish to represent as being minor to those involved) to such as John Erskine, Bryan Muir, Richard Zednik, Brian Pothier, and Matt Bradley. But that serves to illustrate the zero margin for error this club has at the moment. The slightest disruption to the delicate balance of its roster – the fact that the club really isn’t 23-deep even when healthy – and what was a 15-10-7 season full of hope was spun into six weeks of 5-12-0 and the first thoughts of what might have been.

That’s the bad, and it is what it is. But there are silver linings in all these clouds, too. Although the Caps were beaten by a better team, the Caps did not lack for effort in the same way they did against Florida a week ago. They hit everything that moved, right from the drop of the puck – Hurricanes, officials getting in the way, even that pig of the heavily-medicated look that serves as a mascot. And they kept it up, working over all 200-feet of the ice sheet even as the game was falling out of reach. A loss can serve to help establish and cement the identity of a club.

The Caps returned to the kind of club they often reflected when they were getting out to that 15-10-7 record. They worked hard, they finished plays (not always successfully), they harassed the other club. But if we look at what we thought were the keys to the game, the Caps came up short:

Get off fast (score first) – Carolina scored the first two goals in the first nine minutes of the first period. To their credit, the Caps came back to tie, but scoring first has been everything in the first four games this year against Carolina, and it was last night, too.

Be aggressive (out-hit Carolina) – 61-33. That was the official hit tally. Generous? Almost certainly, but the Caps did play with an intensity that often has been lacking in the six week slide.

Shoot the damn puck – 26 shots. The Caps won the two games in which they had at least 30 shots, lost the ones they didn’t. 26 isn’t 30; they lost.

Make sure the usual suspects are represented on the score sheet – the usual suspects had five of the six points for the Caps (Jeff Schultz getting the other on an assist for his first NHL point). That’s not bad, but then again, they were done for the evening 54 seconds into the second period.

The Caps can thrive in a game that lacks a certain flow, especially when playing a more talented, deeper team – their own top end players end up a bit fresher. But 13 penalties was a lot to overcome. Jakub Klepis might have played himself off the roster last night, and that is very unfortunate. Two penalties taken early in the second period – the second coming seven seconds after the first (a terrible goaltender interference call, by the way) expired – stemmed whatever momentum the Caps might have been building after the tying Ovechkin goal to start the period. Justin Williams scored for Carolina 21 seconds after the second Klepis penalty was called – just as another Caps penalty was expiring -- and Carolina was off. Klepis did not return to the ice for the remainder of the game.

It’s hard to get too down on this club. There are very, very good elements here. Ovechkin, certainly. Chris Clark is following up one career year with another. Dainius Zubrus is playing solidly, if not spectacularly. Alexander Semin has points in eight of his last nine games. Boyd Gordon has improved by leaps and bounds since the start of the year. Steve Eminger has come back from a slow start to play excellent defense over the last several weeks (although last night was brutal for him on the scoresheet). But there are gaping holes on this roster – the defense is equal parts green, injured, and thin. There is little production coming from the bottom half of the line combinations, even on nights when the Caps win. Goaltending has not been inspired, at least not to the degree it was for much of the first ten weeks of the season. Neither goalie has had the ability to steal a game for the club during this skid. The bad news for the Caps is that team with stakes worth playing for are increasingly able to exploit the holes to withstand the contributions of the skilled players.

On any single night, the Caps can – and should be expected to – muster up a 100-percent effort. But that is a hard chore to repeat night after night with a thin and injury-depleted club. Unfortunately, that’s where the Caps find themselves as they try to put those playoff chances back up on the shelf for fans to see. They don’t have enough talent up and down the roster to do anything else.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- A Caps-Canes Two-fer

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s a special “home-and-home” edition of The Peerless to kick off the post-All Star Game sprint to the finish.

For those of you scoring at home, the Caps are 20-21-7 for 47 points. At this time last year the Caps were 17-26-5 (39 points). Two seasons ago, the Caps were 14-27-5-2 (35 points). That’s improvement, but it’s not a playoff pace. If we use last year as a guide, the Caps would need 92 points to make the top eight. That’s 45 points in the last 34 games. Not impossible, but it suggests something like a 20-9-5 finish to get there. By way of comparison, among the division leaders, Atlanta was 18-10-6 in their first 34 games, New Jersey was 19-12-3, and Buffalo was 25-7-2.

Even if we use this year as a guide, Pittsburgh has the eighth spot at the moment, and they’re on a pace for 89 points. Tampa – in seventh – also is on an 89-point pace. Even getting to 90 suggests something like 19-10-5. That’s the hole the Caps dug for themselves by going 5-11-0 leading up to the All-Star break.

This weekend the Caps get to take a big wet bite out of that task by taking on the Carolina Hurricanes in a home-and-home set. The Caps are 2-2 against Carolina, and although the goals stand at 13-11, Carolina, none of the games have been close. Carolina has wins of 5-0 and 4-1 in games two and three of the season series, the Caps a pair of 5-2 wins in games one and four.

Some tidbits about the four games . . .

- In every game thus far, the team that scored first won
- Each team split two games on its own ice
- Only once did a team ever surrender a lead (Carolina, in game one)
- The team that won the special teams game (power play scores versus scores allowed) won each game
- Carolina won the faceoff battle in every game, winning 55.2 percent of draws overall
- Washington is 4-20 on the power play (20.0 percent), Carolina 4-21 (19.0 percent)
- The Caps’ top line of Alexander Ovechkin, Dainius Zubrus, and Chris Clark is 0-0-0, -4 in the two losses (Chris Clark missed one game), 5-3-8, +11 in the two wins
- Alexander Semin has the other five goals in the two wins (he has no goals in the losses)
- The Caps have been outshot in three of the four games, 131-107 overall. But, the Caps won both games in which they registered at least 30 shots
- Olaf Kolzig is 2-1, Brent Johnson 0-1 in the four games
- If you’re looking for a good luck charm – Jean Morin. He’s been a linesman in each of the two Caps’ wins (he also has been on hand for one of the losses). In case you’re wondering, the four games have had eight different referees – no special relief there
- Hits . . . in two wins, the Caps had 62 total. In two losses, 34
- If you’re looking for Caps to stand out tonight . . . Chris Clark: 2-3-5, +4 in three games . . . Alexander Semin: 5-0-5 (including a hat trick), -1, 2 PPG

So, what do the Caps have to do? Get off fast (score first), be aggressive (out-hit Carolina), shoot the damn puck, make sure the usual suspects are represented on the score sheet.

And hope Jean Morin is a linesman.

Friday: Caps 3 – Carolina 2
Saturday: Caps 4 – Carolina 2

Your Second Half Prognostos

And now it’s time for . . . second-half prognostos.

We’re going right to the source here, the ne plus ultra of the prognosticatory arts – The Magic 8-Ball. We will consult this oracle to discern just what lies in store for the Caps (and some other things) for the rest of this year . . .

Oh, Magic 8-Ball . . . will the Caps procure a defenseman before the trading deadline?
…yes.

Will Richard Zednik finish the season a Cap?
...yes

Will this defenseman trip over the boards in his first practice and be lost for the season to a "lower body" injury?
…ask me later.

Oh, great oracle, is Peter Forsberg in the Caps’ future?
…ask yourself. (hey, did I get a wise-ass 8-ball?)

Will Alex Ovechkin win the Richard Trophy?
…not a chance (not exactly shy about it, are you?)

Will Alexander Semin win it?
…yes (well, that’s better)

Will Ovechkin win the Ross Trophy?
…signs look good.

Will he win the Hart Trophy?
…ask me later.

Will the Caps finish the season above .500?
…yes.

Will they make the playoffs?
…no

Will they finish ahead of Pittsburgh?
...who knows?

Will they be a lottery team?
...no

Will Glen Hanlon win the Adams Trophy?
…no

Will Sidney Crosby be spirited away by aliens?
…who knows? (The Peerless didn’t hear a “no” in there…)

Will the Penguins stay in Pittsburgh?
…no

Will Gary Bettman suffer weeping sores and have his limbs set upon by rabid gerbils?
…signs look good (hope springs eternal!)

Will The Peerless win the Powerball grand prize?
…yes

Well, The Peerless is off to see what island he wants to buy.

Better . . .

Last night's NHL All-Star Game was more akin to a professional production than the "let's put on a SHOW!" effort the previous evening for the Young Stars Game and Super Skills Competition. Part of it was that the guys on the ice are the best salesmen for the sport the league could ask for. Equal parts good time and competitive edge, the game also served to point out that the league really is more than Sidney Crosby (or Alex Ovechkin).

16 players accounted for the 21 goals in the 12-9 Western Conference win. 26 players had points (Sidney Crosby not being among them). The big Eastern line of Crosby, Ovechkin, and Brendan Shanahan was held to a single point -- Ovechkin's goal (assisted by Daniel Briere -- imagine that) in the second period.

But there was the venerable Joe Sakic with four assists, Brian Rolston and Rick Nash chipping in two goals and two assists, respectively, for the West. The story for the West was the unsung all-stars -- Lubomir Visnovsky had a goal and an assist and was +4. Rolston was +5. And Yanic Perreault wrote the next chapter in his unlikely season by scoring a pair of goals and having a +5 night. Uncharateristically, though, Perreault lost 9 of 15 draws. The Peerless suspects he'll take that trade for a night, at least. Marian Hossa had four helpers for the East, and Daniel Briere was 1-4-5, +5 for the East to win him the game's MVP award (prognosticated, accurately of course, by this author).

Some guys struggled. It was not a night to be a Tampa Bay Lightning representative, as the pair of Lightning -- Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis went a combined 1-1-2, -9. Crosby and Simon Gagne were -4, apiece. The goalies were, as one would expect abused mercilessly (21 goals on 77 shots -- 27.3 percent shooting percentage). Martin Brodeur has an especially difficult night, giving up six goals on 16 shots. But he and Marty Turco were good sports about it, as they were mic'ed up to provide running commentary (a nice touch for the telecast, although Brodeur's commentary was lost when his microphone was popped loose on a goal he allowed). Turco, in particular, seemed to warm up to the idea, appearing to offer comments while in the midst of saves.

And, as if this should be a surprise to anyone, no hits were recorded -- none (Jeremy Roenick not having been invited to this game).

If there was a coming out for any player, The Peerless might be tempted to go with Zdeno Chara. Much has been made these last two days that he is the largest player in the history of the league, and he uses a stick that seems to span the width of the rink. But Chara had a couple of goals last night and showed good instincts in jumping into the play. He's shown this from time to time, but on this stage, he really shined.

One should not make too much of this game. It is what it is -- an enjoyable romp for the game's best players, given an opportunity to display the skill and even the good humor that is absent in the night-to-night crush of games during the regular season. The Peerless thought it was immensely entertaining.

As for the broadcast, it seemed as though Versus, if it didn't find it's "A" game, found something close. Doc Emrick was a lot sharper last night than for the skills competition, and the supporting commentary was for the most part appropriate without being intrusive. They even found use for the "rail-cam," although here's an idea . . . put that thing on the other side of the ice. Watching that thing running the rail in front of the play on the wider shots got to be annoying after a while.

But all that is details. It was a nice break for players and fans in the midst of a long season. It's back to work tomorrow and the beginning of the sprint to the finish.

More grit needed? . . . or better judgment?

Read Tarik El-Bashir's column this morning in the Washington Post on the Caps trying to add "grit" to the game of Alex Ovechkin. What came to mind by the time I finished it was, "right church, wrong pew."

The argument goes something like this . . . Ovechkin is a gifted offensive player -- a young, gifted offensive player -- who someimes cheats a little too much for his own good trying to get a jump on the offensive attack. No quarrel there. Anyone who has attended a Caps game in person can testify to the "peek" . . . when Ovechkin peeks back to see if a Caps player is about to get possession of the puck, upon which he turns and heads up ice. Trouble is, sometimes, the Cap player doesn't end up with possession, and it's a 5-on-4 in the Caps' zone. Not a good way to endear yourself to your goaltender, as one might interpret from Olaf Kolzig's comments:

"It's not blowing the zone to get a head start on a defenseman . . . It's not about cheating. It's playing the system and playing it right in his own end. He's made strides, but then he takes a step back. He's got to remind himself every game that it's defensive zone first. Because you win championships with defense. And he's the kind of guy who can help us win a championship, but he's got to be committed in his own end."

There is truth in this, but there was something in the comments of George McPhee that made me a bit uncomfortable:

"He's already proven to a lot of people that he's an elite player . . . But he wants to win a Cup. Our objective is to find how he can help us get there. Look at a player like Steve Yzerman. For years, he scored lots of points, but he really needed to learn how to play defense in order to win a championship."

I don't know that this is precisely the problem, or the solution. What Yzerman learned (and Messier and Gretzky -- also cited by McPhee in the article) is judgment. There is a time for flat-out, pedal-to-the-metal attacking, and there is a time to be a rock in your own end. The trick is judgment -- knowing what is needed in each game, on each shift. Yzerman, Messier, and Gretzky learned those skills and, more important, how to apply them in situations that called for them. Ovechkin always will be an "offense-first" player. It does not absolve him from learning and applying the discipline that comes with playing sound defense. But the trick for the Capitals' braintrust is not in just making Ovechkin a better defensive player -- that's half the battle. The trick is to impart to him a sense of what needs to be applied on every shift -- of being the kind of player who knows instinctively and precisely what is needed on that shift and how to apply it.

Yzerman is probably the best example of a player who learned those skills and who developed a sense of judgment to figure out what was required of him on every shift. It's part of what made him the leader he was, especially over the latter half of his career.

Why bother?

I watched that skills competition last night, and the above question came to mind. So much of the format seemed either stale or silly, and the presentation of it was -- well, it's not possible to be charitable here -- awful.

These few seconds . . .



. . . were more fun to watch -- in regular-season competition, mind you (and I'm not a fan of the shootout) -- than just about anything offered up last night.

I'm pretty much an "old school" type, but the two days of all-star celebration is the league's chance to really showcase what it is that makes these guys "all-stars." Creativity, competitiveness, showmanship, style, skill. And we get . . . three guys standing around . . . pass-pass-pass . . . pass-pass . . . pass-pass . . . shoot.

yeesh.

I'd sooner see a "trick shot" competition, with one shooter in on the goalie in a penalty shot format, free to do just about anything with stick and puck to try to score a goal, similar to the NBA slam dunk competition (ok, we don't like to make NBA comparisons here, but humor me). The goal must be scored to count for the shooting team, and scored goals must be judged by an elite panel of from the hockey world (former players would seem best here).

This is but one example. I think one could pluck one hockey fan at random from every NHL city and come up with at least as creative a list of events as what we saw, for the most part, last night.

As for the production, one thing illustrated the problem for me as much as anything else. It was at the top of the Young Stars Game, when our plucky commentators pointed out that there would be a "rail-cam" that would show the speed of the game at close to ice level. Well, we were treated to more shots of the rail-cam Amtraking it along its rail than were were to shots from the rail-cam. It had all the look of a production thrown together in the last 48-hours before the events.

One prays that the game fares better tonight. The league could use the help.

F = m * a

For those of you who remember high school physics, that's the expression of Newton's second law of motion, where force equals mass (where mass is a constant) times acceleration.

We don't bring this up to have a test at the end of the hour, but to highlight something reported in Tarik El-Bashir's column in this morning's Washington Post on the NHL's introduction of its new uniform "system" at tomorrow's All-Star Game. In it, El-Bashir writes...

The [new] uniforms also are supposed to reduce drag by 9 percent, according to wind tunnel testing at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

We have a game that has been characterized by many -- in derogatory terms -- as having less hitting than the "pre-lockout" version of the sport or any of a number of previous generations of hockey. Now, we are going to be treated to large men with malice on their minds skating faster in a confined space.

It's nice that the league has spent untold amounts of money testing and developing a lighter, more aerodynamic uniform for the benefit of the players (the $424 price tag for fans is a secondary consideration, of course). But guys? You might want to think about doing some more research on helmets. Maybe it's a good thing that Bettman Hockey is a pale imitation of its more physical ancestors. Someone might get killed out there.

The Rebuild...Revisited

“Rebuild”

As a verb, it can mean:

1. to repair, esp. to dismantle and reassemble with new parts
2. to replace, restrengthen, or reinforce
3. to revise, reshape, or reorganize
4. to build again or afresh

With reference to the Caps, it is used as much as a noun, a reference to the “rebuild” that commenced with the 2003-2004 season. Three years down the road, where do the Caps stand? Let’s look at the deals that tore down the Caps and started the rebuild, and the returns.

Steve Konowalchuk – traded to Colorado for Bates Battaglia and the rights to Jonas Johansson, October 22, 2003.

Konowalchuk was, from reports at the time, not happy with the direction of the club and was interested in moving west. He was accommodated in this trade. Battaglia spent one season with the Caps (66 games, 4-6-10, -23) before departing as a free agent. Johansson, who will be 23 in March, has struggled to make an impression at the minor league level.

Grade: F

Robert Lang – traded to Detroit for Tomas Fleischmann and a 1^st round draft pick in 2004 (defenseman Mike Green) and a 4th round pick in 2006 (forward Luke Lynes), February 27, 2004.

Lang was an echo of the Jaromir Jagr trade – a center of some familiarity to Jagr who would complement him and help justify his salary. Between the two, they were earning $16 million/year, but the Caps were struggling in the standings. Fleischmann has put up fine numbers in the AHL but has not yet demonstrated an ability to stick at the NHL level. Further, he is a left wing – a position the Caps already have filled with Alexander Semin and Alexander Ovechkin. He might at some point become a trading asset. Green is in his first full year with the Caps after splitting time with Hershey last year. Green is a “Young Stars Game” selection for NHL’s all star celebration and is second on the Caps among defensemen in +/-; he should develop into a solid top-four defenseman. Lynes is a long term project.

Grade: B

Sergei Gonchar – traded to Boston for Shaone Morrisonn and 1^st (defenseman Jeff Schultz) and 2^nd (center Mikail Yunkov) round draft picks in 2004, March 3, 2004

Gonchar was/is the prototypical offensive defenseman – an all-star caliber player annually among the leaders in scoring among defensemen. He also can be a liability in his own end. Morrisonn shows promise as a top-four defenseman (he is getting top-pair minutes for the moment). He is the closest thing the Caps have to a defensive stopper, which is not to say this should – or will be – his long term role. Schultz has played decently, if unspectacularly, in his rookie season at Hershey. He’s also had a couple of call-ups to the big club. Yunkov is a long term project.

Grade: B

Jaromir Jagr – traded to the New York Rangers for Anson Carter, January 23, 2004 (Caps also liable for a substantial share of remaining value of Jagr’s contract)

Playing “The Seven Degrees of Jaromir Jagr” is always fun. He was obtained for three prospects (Kris Beech, Ross Lupaschuk, and Michal Sivek) and $4.9 million on July 11, 2001. It was, and remains, the single biggest transaction in the club’s history for impact (the selection of Alexander Ovechkin was a given the moment the Caps won the 2004 draft lottery, so the impact there wasn’t as greatly felt). After disappointing results, Jagr was moved for Carter, who was moved for Jared Aulin. Aulin was not resigned by the Caps. He hooked up with the Springfield Falcons on a PTO deal, but was released after 13 games.

Grade: D- (the only saving grace of this deal is that the Caps are liable for only half of Jagr’s salary and it contributed to the Caps’ ability to land the first pick in the 2004 draft . . . it could have been worse).

Peter Bondra – traded to Ottawa for Brooks Laich and a 2^nd round draft pick in 2005 (parlayed with another pick via trade with Colorado into the 27^th overall pick – defenseman Joe Finley), February 18, 2004

Speculation on whether Bondra would be a victim of the purge lasted for weeks leading up to his eventual trade. The lack of return was somewhat suprising at the time. Laich is a checking forward whose long-term value to the club is debatable (the Caps have many of his type of player, and the Caps should be upgrading their skill as time passes and other youngsters develop). The jury on Finley is still out; he is in his second year at the University of North Dakota.

Grade: C-

Mike Grier – traded to Buffalo for Jakub Klepis, March 9, 2004

Grier was a well-liked member of the club, and his trade was a bit of a surprise (although Klepis was reported to be a favorite of General Managere George McPhee going back to Klepis’ draft by Ottawa in the 2002 draft). Grier has since moved on to San Jose, Klepis is struggling at the moment in his rookie season, getting reduced playing time lately and the occasional healthy scratch. He has an uncomfortable tendency to take the lazy penalty and has not yet consistently displayed the playmaking ability he is thought to have. That he is a rookie is a consideration here.

Grade: C

Michael Nylander – traded to Boston for a 2^nd round draft pick in 2006 (Francois Bouchard) and future considerations (a 4^th round pick in 2005 – defenseman Patrick McNeill), March 4, 2004.

Nylander moved on to the New York Rangers. Bouchard and McNeill are still with their teams in juniors (Baie-Comeau Drakkar in the QMJHL, and Saginaw in the OHL, respectively). Each must be regarded as long term projects.

Grade: incomplete

Brendan Witt – traded to Nashville for Kris Beech and a 1^st round draft pick in 2006 (goaltender Semen Varlamov), March 9, 2006

This is a special case, the last of the 1990’s core of the Capitals to be moved. Witt, who almost certainly would not have returned to the Caps as a free agent at the end of the 2005-2006 season, ended up with the Islanders; Beech returned to where he was originally drafted. Beech has not been the answer at center on the second line, despite repeated opportunities given to him to take that position by the throat. It would appear that Caps fans will have to settle for dreams of Nicklas Backstrom next year insofar as that issue is concerned. The selection of Varlamov is curious, given the long lead time for goalie development, lower free agency age thresholds, and the notorious problems in picking winners among goaltenders high in the draft (see: Brian Finley, Mathieu Chouinard, Maxime Ouellet, Brent Krahn, among others).

Grade: incomplete (but The Peerless isn’t optimistic, owing to the considerable uncertainty surrounding the Varlamov pick).

So there you have it . . . the Caps moved:

Steve Konowalchuk
Robert Lang
Sergei Gonchar
Jaromir Jagr
Peter Bondra
Mike Grier
Michael Nylander
Brendan Witt

…and received in return:

Jonas Johansson
Tomas Fleischmann
Mike Green
Luke Lynes
Shaone Morrisonn
Jeff Schultz
Mikail Yunkov
Brooks Laich
Joe Finley
Jakub Klepis
Francois Bouchard
Patrick McNeill
Kris Beech
Semen Varlamov

…and nothing for Jaromir Jagr

Some might argue that the Adam Oates deal in 2002 should be included – this netted goaltender Maxime Ouellet, and a 1^st (ultimately a Dallas pick that yielded Alexander Semin), 2^nd (Maxime Daigneault), and 3^rd (Derek Krestanovich) round pick in 2002. However, the Caps made the playoffs the following year, and this is not considered part of the “rebuild.”

Indirectly, the biggest prize of all wasn’t obtained in trade. Absent these 2003-2004 deals, the Caps probably do not finish 28^th in the league, putting them in position to win the draft lottery for first overall selection. The Caps did, they did win the lottery, and Alexander Ovechkin was the result.

The, uh . . . Afternoon After

points to-freakin'-day.

What the $#@& was THAT?

Uh, guys? These are the Florida Panthers, not the Edmonton Freaking Oilers of 1985?

Sometimes, numbers don’t tell the story. Today, it was ALL about the numbers . . .

42-18 . . . No, that’s not the score of the New Orleans Bowl (that was Troy 41 – Rice 17). It was the shots on goal. For those of you who follow that particular number, that’s 177 – 88 by which the Panthers have outshot the Caps in four games this season.

32-6 . . . From the 10:26 mark of the first period when Ben Clymer took a shot on goal until the 9:35 mark of the third when Brooks Laich was credited with one, the Caps were outshot by this margin.

74 . . . the total of shots on goal credited to Florida (42), missed shots taken by Florida (13) and shots blocked by the Caps (19).

10 . . . the number of minor penalties the Caps took.

16:24 . . . the total amount of time the Caps spent shorthanded in the game.

12:00 . . . the total amount of time the Caps spent shorthanded in the last two periods (more on this, later).

2 . . . the number of shots taken by Alex Ovechkin. He hasn’t had fewer in a game since March 12^th of last year, against Ottawa. Last I checked, no one was confusing the Panthers with the Senators.

14, 17 . . . 14 skaters were responsible for 17 giveaways. Florida had only ten giveaways for the game.

Two . . . the number of shifts Kris Beech had after the first period. The Peerless doesn’t think this was an accident.

9:33 . . . the ice time for Jamie Heward. Given that Lawrence Nycholat had more than 24 minutes, a gimpy Mike Green more than 18, and even Jeff Schultz more than 13, The Peerless doesn’t think this was an accident, either.

4.12 . . . Olaf Kolzig’s goals-against average in four games against Florida this year.

.933 . . . Kolzig’s save percentage in four games against Florida this year. For the record, no goaltender in the league has this high a save percentage for the season.

5-11-0 . . . the Caps record since they beat the Flyers on December 16^th. Maybe they caught something.

But here was the turning point of the game. It didn’t even happen during any of the periods. Florida was whistled for four penalties in the first eight minutes of the first period. The first of them was a goaltender interference call on Martin Gelinas. Gelinas didn’t take his punishment lightly and said something to referee Bill McCreary, who was skating away from Gelinas. McCreary did a U-turn and went straight to the box, pointing emphatically at Gelinas. At the close of the period, as the teams were skating off, Gelinas skated up to McCreary and held forth for more than a minute, calmly by all appearances (The Peerless notices such things). Florida was whistled for only three more penalties the rest of the way, the Caps for six. Neither team scored on any of their power plays, and The Peerless is not suggesting that McCreary took special pity on Gelinas, but sometimes, honey works better than vinegar in catching flies (or getting on the better side of a referee). And, the power play discrepancy is there to see. Spending 12 of the next 34 minutes shorthanded (including allowing a goal on one power play) did nothing for the Caps in terms of establishing, let alone maintaining any rhythm.

Look, the Caps are beat up on the blue line, and the Panthers exploited this to forecheck the crap out of Washington. But the forwards didn’t exactly help out here, either. One might think, hey, the defense is kind of green and kind of beat up (that was Jamie Hunt skating in the pre-game, in case Mike Green couldn’t go) . . . maybe they could use some more support. Didn’t happen. It just wasn’t a very responsible effort on the part of the forwards, and it was a predictably bad performance by the defense in its wake.

Olaf Kolzig deserved a whole lot better, as he has often from his teammates against this opponent this year.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Panthers, January 20th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

HEL-L-L-L-L-L-L-P!!!

John Erskine, Bryan Muir, Mike Green, Brian Pothier.

Injured, injured, injured, sick. And we’re not even up to Richard Zednik.

So, The Peerless has assembled a crack panel of medicos to discuss the situation and offer some advice. First, Lt. Col. Henry Blake . . . Dr. Blake, can you explain this?

"Look, all I know is what they taught me at command school. There are certain rules about hockey and rule number one is young hockey players get hurt. And rule number two is doctors can't change rule number one."

Cpt. B.J. Hunnicutt . . . can you explain the rash of injuries?

"You've gotta understand I'm not working on sick people here…well, except for Pothier. I'm working on hurt young people, with essentially healthy bodies that have been insulted by pucks."

Maj. Frank Burns, can you sympathize with teammates and fans who are seeing players felled like this in such numbers?

"I'm sick of hearing about the injured. What about all the dozens of wonderful guys who are playing this game without any of the credit or the glory that always goes to those lucky few who just happen to get their feet broken."

"Frank, it's after six, you can stop being snotty!"

Cpt. B.F. Pierce . . .

. . . “Hawkeye” . . .

Ok, Hawkeye, doesn’t it play on players’ minds, the possibility that I might be next?

“Hockey's pretty much the same story: the fighting goes on, the hatred, the violence, the senseless brutality, men behaving like animals - and then there's the game.”

Maj. Charles Emerson Winchester, do you ever remember a number of injuries like this?

“The only thing Charles remembers fondly from his childhood is his hair.”

Col. Sherman Potter . . . what do you make of reporting injuries like this as “lower body” injuries? This seems to be a recent development.

“Horse hockey! Now you take World War II. My unit got the word that Nazis, dressed as eskimos, had overun Seattle. Incredible as it seems, half my unit believed it."

Maj. Sidney Freedman, you might have a different take on this as a psychiatrist. Any advice for the folks in Capitals Nation?

"Ladies and gentlemen, take my advice, pull down your pants and slide on the ice"

Now that sounds like a novel solution . . . as for the game itself, wakee-wakee Caps fans. This is an afternoon game. One o’clock. So eat a hearty breakfast and let’s get ready for payback!

When last the Caps and the Florida Panthers skated off the ice, the Caps were on the short end of a 7-3 debacle. The shock seems to have had its effect on the Panthers, who managed a single standings point in the two games that followed (that earned in a 3-2 OT loss to Carolina). Florida is 4-3-3 in their last ten games, which is a pretty good definition of treading water. Given that they sit 14^th in the Eastern Conference, that isn’t all bad – it could be viewed as improvement – but it won’t help them advance in the standings much, either.

Among Panthers to watch, Stephen Weiss, who had a hat trick against the Caps last Saturday, has been all but quiet on the score sheet in the two games since, recording only an assist. Olli Jokinen, who does not have an especially distinguished career record against the Caps (8-10-18, -16 in 36 games), say a seven-game points streak ended in his last game, against Toronto. On the other hand, Josef Stumpel, who managed a single point in his last five games to end 2006, has had points in five of seven games in 2007. Jay Bouwmeester seems to be fulfilling the potential many felt he had when drafted in 2002. He’s had a solid season this far, but is really starting to eat up minutes. In eight of the last 12 games he’s logged in excess of 25 minutes. Rostislav Olesz might have only eight goals on the year, but seven of them have come in his last 15 games. And, for your fun Joel Kwiatkowski stat – the forward leads the team in faceoffs-won percentage (100 percent). He is one for one on the year.

The Caps had a bad road trip. There really isn’t a way to sugar coat that. Don’t bring any of this “they played better than their record” nonsense this way. They played four games, they lost three. They were blown out in two of them. They gave up 17 goals in three losses. That’s not good, not at this time of year.

The game against Carolina – a 5-2 win – was closer than the score indicated, owing to two empty net goals in the last minute, but a win is a win, just as a loss is a loss (really deep, there, Peerless). They did play well, especially in keeping the Hurricanes from establishing any momentum. And, Olaf Kolzig did what a veteran goalie might be expected to do. He played as if saying, “enough is enough.” 34 saves on 36 shots in the other guys’ building is a good night anywhere.

A lot might be made of Alexander Ovechkin’s having “only” four goals in his last 11 games. But, on the other hand, he’s got 12 assists for a 4-12-16 line. He is not just, as some folks in other cities think, just a puck hogging goal scorer.

Alexander Semin’s scoring line is the mirror image of Ovechkin – 10-2-12 in his last seven. He is now seventh in the league in goal scoring, second among Russian players, and first among players with less than 100 games of NHL experience (he has 95).

Just like last week, this is an opponent the Caps should beat. This is the getaway game for the All-Star break, it’s at home, and the boys want to head out on a high note. There really isn’t an excuse for being flat (like, “gee, it was a 1:00 start”), and there isn’t one for losing this game. It’s time to look at each game with a higher sense of urgency. It should be a fine afternoon for the home team.

Caps 5 – Panthers 2

Clothes Make the Team

The NHL is rolling out its new take on player uniforms as part of its all-star celebration.

Feh . . .

Thanks to sfischer over on the Caps' official discussion boards, who found this tidbit from a Hurricanes' blogger, we can offer up our own humble proposal for the essentials of a Caps uniform . . .








Beats the crap outta this . . .


(Reebok/CCM Hockey)

Oh, to be a Flyer Fan, Now That Winter is Here . . .

0-8-1 at home since their last win at Wachovia Center . . . last November 24th . . . Black Friday.

When does spring training start for the Phillies?

Your fun Alexander Semin stat for January 19th...

...in his last 82 NHL games, Semin has 35 goals.

For second year guys not named




or



. . . that's pretty darned good.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Hurricanes

A two point night! . . .




. . .and that’s why Olaf Kolzig is important to this team.

A disappointing road trip . . . three straight losses . . . finishing up against the defending Stanley Cup champs . . . in their building . . . and they haven’t lost a game in regulation to a division opponent in more than two months (9-0-1).

So what do the Caps get? A 34-save performance, including 13 in the third period, when Carolina was trying to mount a furious comeback.


(AP Photo/Stan Gilliland)

It was a closer game than the final score would indicate, surely. Two empty net goals in the last minute will do that. In the first 59 minutes, though, there was a weeks worth of odd bounces, some benefiting the Caps, some not.

There was David Tanabe suffering a moment of brain lock (ooh, look at the pretty butterfly . . . ) trying to knock down a puck that was headed from Chris Clark’s stick to the far left wing corner. Well, that’s where goalie John Grahame thought it was going, so he wandered off the reservation to try to corral it. But thanks to Tanabe’s trying to use his stick like a butterfly net, the puck was redirected just past the stick blade of the diving Grahame and into the Hurricane net.

Clark managed a second goal – scored as an one of the “empty net” variety – but it’s hard to adopt that characterization (yes, The Peerless understands the scoring rule here) when the puck caromed into the Hurricane net off a sliding Carolina defender.

In-between, there was Alexander Semin, who scored two mighty spiffy goals – one of them four seconds into a power play when Dainius Zubrus won a draw in the Carolina end, and Semin sccoped up the puck, danced between two Carolina defenders as if they were extras in Madame Tussaud’s Wax Museum, and snapped a shot over Grahame, who waved wanly at the puck as if saying farewell to an old friend (hey, that Acme School of Goodly Writing is coming in handy!).

Semin’s second goal was a similar thing of beauty as he took a nice stretch feed from Donald “Wayne” Brashear, flipped the puck to his forehand, and in one motion snapped the biscuit just under the crossbar. It would be interesting (meaning: “I’m too lazy to do the leg work”) to see just how many of Semin’s goals were scored above the goalie’s shoulders this year. More than any Cap, he seems to have a knack for scoring high.



(AP Photo/Stan Gilliland)


Looking at the other side of the scoreboard, it would be difficult to find much fault with either of the ‘Canes’ goals. Steve Eminger actually had inside position on Erik Cole when a puck was sent toward the Cap net from the other side of the ice. Kolzig managed to get a piece of it, but it flipped over him to the other side of the net, and Cole did what scorers do – he snapped around and timed his backhand swipe at the puck perfectly to deposit it into the empty half of the Caps’ net. The second goal was the product of a deflection off the shaft of a stick from far in front of the net. Kolzig seemed to be tracking the slap shot taken on the play, but the redirect sailed over his right shoulder.

The Caps played with energy last night – something that has been strangely missing from their game in the last two outings, especially. 17 shots in the first period and a whopping 33 hits credited for the game (maybe it was the scorer – he had the ‘Canes with 34 . . . there isn’t that much hitting in a Jermain Taylor fight).

And let’s have some huzzahs for Jeff Schultz. Almost 19 minutes of play, pressed into emergency service as a result of injuries, and he acquitted himself well – no Carolina goals were scored on his watch, and that’s always a good thing for a defenseman. One can look up and down the Cap lineup and find nice performances . . . Shaone Morrisonn: 5 hits and a +2 . . . Steve Eminger: 4 hits, a couple of blocked shots, and a +2 . . . Alex Ovechkin: 5 hits, 6 shots, an empty-netter, and a +2 . . . Ben Clymer: might have had a -1 for the night, but he had five shots to set the tone in the first period and had four hits to go along with it . . . Chris Clark: a +3 to go with his pair of goals . . . and of course, Kolzig being the sturdy rock in the nets with 34 saves on 36 shots. It was among his best performances of the year, given the opponent and the circumstances.

The Caps took a good team playing well and stuffed them in their own building. That’s a glimpse of what this team can be. They are not good enough or experienced enough, yet, to do that every night. They can be. Now, let’s see if they can work on consistency Saturday afternoon on “Payback Saturday” against the Panthers.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, January 18th

Another day, another opportunity.

It doesn’t get any easier, either. Tonight’s opponent – the Carolina Hurricanes – are 4-0-1 in their last five games. There is a lot of that going on lately . . . recent opponents are clubs that have playoff aspirations, and they’re starting to play up to that.

Special teams have carried the day for the Hurricanes in this five-game set. The power play has converted seven of 29 opportunities (24.1 percent), scoring two power play goals in three of the five games. It was the one game in which the Hurricanes failed to register a power play goal that serves to blemish their five-game record (a 4-3 shootout loss to Atlanta). The penalty killers have killed off 19 of 22 man-short situations (86.4 percent).

As one would expect, the five-game surge has been fueled by contributions from Carolina’s scorers:

Erik Cole: 4-4-8, +5
Ray Whitney: 2-5-7, +2
Rod Brind’Amour: 0-7-7, +3
Eric Staal: 2-3-5, +1
Justin Williams: 4-1-5, even

In 177 career man-games, this quintet is 70-81-151 against the Caps.

Cam Ward would appear to be the choice in goal tonight (he backstopped John Grahame in the Hurricanes’ last outing). Ward is playing to a high level himself – 7-3-1, 2.22, .931 in his last 12 games. Having picked up four points on first-place Atlanta over the last five games, the ‘Canes are humming right along.

On the other hand, the wheels are coming of the Caps’ little red wagon – literally. Mike Green is sidelined, as reported by Tarik El-Bashir this morning, after taking a puck off the left foot Tuesday night in Ottawa. George McPhee characterized is as “a little more than day-to-day.” That, kids, is McPheese for “can you say, Barbaro?” Green’s injury means that the Caps have a yard of defensemen – three feet – on the shelf. “Yard?” “Three feet?” Three guys with injured feet? I kill me this early in the morning.

Not coincidentally, the Caps have seen their defensive statistics plummet since John Erskine, Bryan Muir, and now Mike Green have taken one in the boot. Okay, who ever thought the loss of Erskine or Muir would be cause for concern? It is a commentary on the state of the Caps, Caps fans, and even the odd (very odd, Peerless) blogger that such a statement could be contemplated. Nevertheless, since the Caps started down this path with Erskine’s injury against the Flyers on December 16th, the Caps are 4-10-0 and have given up a whopping 52 goals in those 14 games (3.71/game). They’ve also yielded 17 power play goals in that span in 63 shorthanded situations . . . 73.0 percent. For the casual hockey fan, that statistic can be described as “yeesh.” You might keep this in mind, along with Carolina’s 24.1 percent pwer play conversion rate in their last five games, when viewing tonight. If the Caps are going to turn this pig around, it’s going to have to be through reversing their recent penalty killing trend and snuffing out Carolina’s power play. Even though Mike Green does not log much ice time killing penalties, the mounting injuries are no doubt going to mess with Glen Hanlon’s mind in coming up with pairings, which can’t be a good thing for the defense.

Another word for “challenge” is “opportunity.” I learned that in some goofy management class, somewhere. What the Caps need is more this . . .

(Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

. . . and less this . . .

(Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

. . . so Caps fans can . . .



Caps 4 – Hurricanes 3.