Ducks up, 2-0...OK, so I'm late...sue me

The Peerless couldn't weigh in last night on Game 2, but he did have some observations . . .

138-84 . . . no, that isn't the score of the Florida Gators beating up on the University of the Lost Cause in NCAA basketball, it is the shot differential between Anaheim and Ottawa, if you add up the shots on goal, missed shots, and shots blocked by the other club. Anaheim doesn't play the same kind of puck possession game that Detroit plays, so there seem to be other factors involved . . . like Ottawa players wearing Ducks like they'd had a good day at the blind. They can't get anything off.

Here's another number....33. That's the percentage of draws Jason Spezza has won in the offensive zone. Hard to generate offense out of your top line if you're not taking possession of the puck.

And yet another set of numbers....66-49. That's the hit differential in the first two games. Last night, every skater but one registered one for Anaheim. Sure, there is a subjective element to what is recorded as a "hit" in the NHL, but it's part of a pattern.....

....and the pattern is this -- Anaheim is dictating tempo and intensity. Ottawa is reacting to everything and establishing very little. The first two games have been one goal games, but one gets the feeling that the Senators need a bounce, an odd ricochet off the glass, the hand of God. But if that's what you're looking for to turn things around...well, good luck.

From Ottawa's perspective, all the Ducks have done is hold serve. With the next two games in Ottawa, the Senators get advantages such as the last change, perhaps to avoid a little bit the Pahlsson line making life difficult for the Spezza line. But that line needs to do more than skate pretty. 11 shots and two points in six full periods of hockey isn't the stuff of a long series from a top line. You get the feeling the first ten minutes of Game 3 is where the balance of the series lies. If Ottawa can't feed off their adrenaline in front of the home crowd and establish momentum to get a lead, the Ducks might have cooked their goose.

photos: AP -- Mark Avery/Chris Carlson

A Tale of Two Businessmen

The playing field?....the National Hockey League

The principals?...Tom Golisano, owner of the Buffalo Sabres, and Ted Leonsis, owner of the Washington Capitals.

Resolved, "Is the National Hockey League Healthy, or Is It Not?'"

First, Mr. Leonsis . . .

"The NHL grew its revenues again -- two years in a row -- post the lockout . . . Due to the increase in revenues in the league this year, the salary cap will most likely go up so the players will be happier as they share in the growth of additional revenues. Franchise values are up if Nashville (the lowest grossing team in the league) sells for $220 million. That sets a floor on franchise values, doesn't it? We paid $85 million for the Washington Capitals as a point of perspective. New, smart people want to come into the league and banks are interested in financing new owners so the league must be healthy."

Mr. Golisano (as reported by Tim Graham of the Buffalo News), your rebuttal?

“Would it be considered a success when you have a team that sells out every game and sells out all the suites but would lose money unless they were in the playoffs? That’s a thing an organization like the Buffalo Sabres must be aware of. If they move the salary cap up and we go with it, there’s a good possibility we would lose money unless we reached the second round of the playoffs. That’s an unhealthy situation.”

Are there two National Hockey Leagues out there? The Peerless knows there are not, and there might be extenuating factors in at least one of these arguments (in the case of Mr. Golisano's, a negotiating "shot-across-the-bow" to poor mouth his team's finances in advance of negotations on new contracts with Daniel Briere and Chris Drury, both unrestricted free agents). But it is interesting to ponder the seeming contracdictions in these arguments, especially since one must presume that the Buffalo owner -- who sold out his arena for the season, by the way -- is one of those new, smart people who wanted to come into the league.

Congratulations, Dave

Dave Fay, who has covered the Washington Capitals for more than 20 years, was recognized yesterday by the Hockey Hall of Fame as this year's recipient of the Elmer Ferguson Memorial Award for his outstanding work as a beat writer covering the Washington Capitals.

The Peerless thinks this award is well-deserved. Too often, it is tempting to dwell on the particulars of this story or that at the expense of an entire body of work. That Fay has devoted decades to chronicling the exploits of the Caps, while imprinting his own uniquely acerbic style to the product, commands respect.

The Ferguson award citation reads:

"In recognition of distinguished members of the newspaper profession whose words have brought honour to journalism and to hockey."

For Fay, whose dedication to the sport over the years has been amply demonstrated, whose devotion to his profession and determination in the face of health problems is without question, this honor is richly deserved.

Congratulations, Dave.

Ducks up, 1-0

Wow...now that was a finish. If you don't appreciate this sport after watching the last three minutes of the game (the Bettmanesque penalty -- wrong call, wrong player, cheesy anyway, notwithstanding), you won't ever do so.

-- The goalies played well, but indicated some weaknesses that might be exploited...Ray Emery seemed to have a bit of trouble peeking around screens, and Jean-Sebastien Giguere just doesn't move from side-to-side particularly well.

-- Rob Niedermayer had a superb game...primary assist on the game-winner, six shots on goal, five hits

-- Ryan Getzlaf was missing in action for the first two periods, but sure did make up for it in the third

-- Think Randy Carlyle has a short bench? Ric Jackman and Kent Huskins -- rumored to be defensemen on the Anaheim roster -- skated a combined three shifts in the third period. Drew Miller (whose one hit led to the first Duck goal), Brad May, and Shawn Thornton skated a total of five shifts in the third.

-- The big hitter?...Samuel Pahlsson (eight). Whodathunkit? Well, you would if you'd been paying attention; he has more than twice as many as the next Duck in the playoffs.

-- The Heatley-Spezza-Alfredson line...0-2-2, five shots (only one of those in the third period), -3. Jason Spezza in particular had an uninspired night.

-- Anton Volchenkov...10 blocked shots. Ten. Anaheim as a team had 13.

-- Ominous point concerning Ottawa...they scored two power play goals, but they didn't really come close to scoring at even strength.

-- Arnold might make a decent linesman . . .

AP PHOTO/CP, Paul Chiasson

-- This was a close game only on the scoreboard. Anaheim finished the game having taken 69 shots (32 shots on goal, 15 missed shots, 22 shots blocked by Ottawa). Ottawa took 43 (20 shots on goal, 10 missed shots, 13 shots blocked by Anaheim). And, Ottawa had seven power plays to Anaheim's four, which should have produced more shots for Ottawa. Ottawa had seven shots on goal in the third, and only two of those came after the Ducks scored what would be the game winner with 2:51 left...those shots (from Spezza and Chris Phillips) came from 58 and 37 feet away -- hardly prime scoring territory. The Senators had only one shot in the final 54 seconds (after the Chris Pronger penalty) when they had a six-on-four advantage with Ray Emery pulled.


The Peerless thinks this is going to be a long series, but Ottawa has to take another step up to ensure that happens. All in all, it was a good night for Anaheim.


Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

Thank you . . .

In Flanders Fields the poppies blow
Between the crosses row on row,
That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly
Scarce heard amid the guns below.

We are the Dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved and were loved, and now we lie
In Flanders fields.

Take up our quarrel with the foe:
To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders fields.

Sweep...

Bears 3 -- Manchester 1 . . .



. . . next up, Hamilton, Friday and Saturday in Hershey for Games 1 and 2 of the Calder Cup final.

When Did Jeff Foxworthy Take Up Hockey?

...and learn Latvian?

Shouldn't Sidney Crosby be Doing This?

Driven . . .

. . . yeah, to drink. And folks wonder why the Yankees are 21-25.

What, you mean . . . there's more hockey?

Last Tuesday, the NHL had a game . . . Red Wings - Ducks, we believe. In the meantime, six days will have passed with a US holiday intervening before the NHL tries to start their stalled engine just as the "summer" is beginning for a lot of folks.

Way to keep hockey in the public eye, folks. It isn't bad enough hockey is harder to find on TV than a positive opinion of Gary Bettman, but now you take six days off. The Peerless wagers that there is more buzz about the Calder Cup tournament right now than the Stanley Cup. Damien Cox lays out the particulars in the Toronto Sun:

By Monday . . . NHL fans will also be attempting to re-familiarize themselves with the competition in general since it will have been six days since they will have seen an NHL game, not to mention nine days since images of Bryan Murray and Daniel Alfredsson appeared on their television screens, well, at least until NBC got bored with overtime and left for a horse race.

If Gary Bettman's administration was deliberately trying to kill interest in the Stanley Cup, it couldn't be doing much more.

Understand this – hockey fans wanted the NHL season over last week, not three weeks from now.

If Tuesday's Game 6 between Anaheim and Detroit had ended the season, it would have felt about right. Instead, it just began the long wait to the final.

Maybe The Peerless should string an extension cord and a TV out to the pool and enjoy winter's greatest sport.

Hey, Drew...the Season Ain't Even Cold Yet

Perusing the graveyard that is the Detroit dailies this morning, we came across the quiet musings of Free Press columnist, Drew Sharp...

Plan A for Ken Holland should be gauging Anaheim goalie Jean-Sebastien Giguere's interest in switching allegiances and becoming a Red Wing, if he's available. How could the Wings not target him, especially if Giguere wins a second Conn Smythe Trophy in the upcoming Stanley Cup finals?

The bidding might reach $5 million a year. It doesn't matter. Get it done and the Wings remain serious Cup contenders for at least the next two years.

It reads like a message board post at letsgowings.com, but hey, when you've cratered your season, there really isn't much else to talk about . . . I mean, what, it's not like there is a STANLEY CUP FINAL about to begin.

The Long Journey's End in Sight -- The Peerless' Last Prognostication for the Year

One more series.

There is little doubt, the two teams left standing are the best the NHL has to offer this year. Anaheim, a fine team over the course of the entire year, closed the regular season 11-3-3 and has gone 12-4 in the playoffs. Ottawa, which started the year sluggishly, left .500 behind at 18-18-1, then went 30-7-8 the rest of the way. They are 12-3 in the playoffs.

Statistically, Ottawa holds the playoff edge in virtually any category you’d care to look at:

Goals-per-game: Ottawa: 3.20/Anaheim: 2.62
Goals-allowed-per-game: Ottawa: 2.07/Anaheim: 2.12
Power Play: Ottawa: 20.0%/Anaheim: 15.3%
Penalty Killing: Ottawa: 88.6/Anaheim: 87.5
Face offs: Ottawa: 52.6/Anaheim: 49.7

Ottawa will bring three of the top four scorers in the tournament into this series. Dany Heatley (6-15-21), Jason Spezza (7-13-20), and Daniel Alfredsson (10-7-17) constitute a formidable top line in the traditional sense.

However, the Senators have no other scorers in the top 30. Anaheim, on the other hand, has seven players among the top 30 scorers:

Chris Pronger: 3-11-14
Ryan Getzlaf: 5-8-13
Teemu Selanne: 5-7-12
Samuel Pahlsson: 2-8-10
Travis Moen: 4-5-9
Corey Perry: 4-5-9
Scott Niedermayer: 3-6-9

Discipline and the manner in which the games are called could have a bearing on this series. Anaheim would appear to prefer a game with a lot of free-wheeling (yet tightly called) games. The Ducks are third in total power play opportunities (85) and lead the league in total time shorthanded in the playoffs (96). A march to the penalty box does not appear to have impeded the Ducks very much. On the other hand, Ottawa seems to flourish more in a continuous flow situation. They are fourth in total power play opportunities (but at 70 are 15 behind the Ducks) and third in total times shorthanded (their 79 times in that situation stands 17 behind the Ducks). If there are a lot of whistles, it will favor Anaheim.

For the hockey enthusiast, this is almost the perfect series. On the one hand, you have the formidable top line of the Senators, but perhaps the best pair of defensemen in the league in Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer, plus the somewhat underrated Francois Beauchemin. Conversely, there is the considerable balance among the Duck scorers, but for Ottawa a deep defense in the person of Wade Redden, Chris Phillips, Anton Volchenkov, and Andrei Meszaros.

Between the goaltenders, there is not much to distinguish. Jean-Sebastien Giguere is 9-3 since returning to the top spot, with a 1.87 GAA (fourth in the playoffs), and a .931 save percentage. Ray Emery has been at the top of his game for the tournament, going 1.95 (fifth) and .919 (12^th).

But if you’re looking for one indicator of what might drive this series, it is this…the two teams have scored first in 18 of the combined 31 games they’ve played. 17 times, they’ve won (Anaheim taking the only loss when scoring first).

Way back in October, The Peerless picked Anaheim to win it all. He sees no reason to change that opinion. The Ducks have sufficient talent on their back line to keep the mischief from the Senator top line to a minimum, and they have enough balance on offense to make Ottawa’s defense work every night. In goal, J-S Giguere has the experience of a final in his resume and has demonstrated just the slightest bit of better performance over Emery to be enough.

In the end, this might be the perfect series to end this season, and it is a tragedy for the sport and for sports in general than so few are likely to avail themselves of the opportunity to watch. On June 11^th, Anaheim will raise the Cup in triumph, winning the seventh game of what promises to be a thrilling series.

News Flash -- Jason LaBarbera Finishes Game

Not that it appeared to matter.

Despite 14 minor penalties being called on them, the Hershey Bears disposed of the Manchester Monarchs, 4-1, and deposited their two home games in the Eastern Conference final in the win column.

Although the score was not as lopsided as last night's 7-2 thwapping, this game sounded at least as dominating for the Bears. Killing 27:19 in penalty time (some of which...well, very little...overlapped with Monarch penalty time) isn't a recipe for success on most nights. The Monarchs' only success came on one of what were at least four 5-on-3's. Otherwise, Manchester came up empty on 30 other shots on goal.

Hershey has pasted Manchester to the tune of 11-3 in two games thus far. And it must be frustrating for the Monarchs . . . leading scorer in the playoffs Patrick O'Sullivan is 1-1-2 in the two games, but he's taken a whopping 13 shots on goal, too. And second-leading scorer Marty Murray has a big donut in two games and has yet to register a shot on goal. On the other side of the ledger, Hershey has had points from 14 different skaters in two games.


Come to think of it, LaBarbera didn't finish this game on his skates, either. He got pulled in the last minute, which allowed Matt Hendricks to pot an empty-netter for the final score (ok, he went back in after the Hendricks goal, but that's details). That's three games in Hershey without being on the ice at the end.

Reality Check

The Peerless was on his way to Hershey last evening, so we missed the missed (or misplaced) action in the Ottawa-Buffalo game. But having heard about and read about what transpired . . . well, for all the blather about how well the NHL is doing in attendance, for all the piffle about “action figures,” for all the cook-the-books numbers the league and its assorted franchises are spewing that are meant to lend credence to the thought that the NHL is back, we have as cold and as hard a reality check as there is.

Ladies and gentlemen, we will leave you now to bring you the Preakness pre-race show. You can follow the action on Versus.

Allan Muir paints the portrait for us over at SI.com. All The Peerless can say is, thank you, NBC, for that cold splash of water in our faces. Hockey is now a rung (or two . . . or three) below the pre-event show for a sport whose popularity pretty much ended when Secretariat left the field in another time zone in The Belmont Stakes in 1973. I don’t blame NBC – they have a business to run. But the League? Spare us the crap about how your revenues are up, how teams are selling out their arenas. Give-aways inflate attendance numbers, projected revenues this season will be no more (in 2004 dollars) than they were for the last year before the lockout, and the Red Wings – the Dee-troit freakin’ Red Wings – can’t sell out a playoff game.

Here is the chilling fact for hockey fans looking for a shred of optimism – the NBC deal was the best deal the NHL could get for a national network in the U.S., and when push came to shove, when an elimination game in the championship semi-final was headed to overtime, NBC chose to cover an event characterized by women in gaudy hats.

And for you old-schoolers out there . . . you can count the years left when playoff games go to overtime on one hand, with fingers left over. The shootout is coming. The future arrived yesterday.

The Bear Essentials: Hershey 7 - Manchester 2

For the second week in a row, The Peerless headed up to Hershey to watch the Caps in waiting march toward a Calder Cup. And, they did not disappoint. They beat, and beat on the Manchester Monarchs to the tune of 7-2 to take a 1-0 lead in games in the Eastern Conference final.

The story lines coming in were three . . . Bruce Boudreau faces old club, Dean Arsene makes his return, and Manchester plays in its first conference final ever. The only one that seemed to matter a lot on the ice was the last of the three. Manchester came into the game with 51 wins in the regular season and eight in the playoffs – same as Hershey. That is where the similarities ended.

The Peerless noted in the mail bag preceding this post that Jason LaBarbera had two rather dismal first periods in his two games against Hershey in the regular season – a 4.23 GAA and .769 save percentage -- and that scoring early might be a factor here. He did not improve upon that much last night, and it was a factor. Manchester opened the game looking for all the world like a club overwhelmed by their surroundings. LaBarbera didn’t exactly bail them out. Dave Steckel swatted a ricochet behind LaBarbera 140 seconds in. Scott Barney added a power play goal at 7:32, and Steckel then added a shorthanded goal at 9:12. Not ten minutes in, and the Monarchs found themselves down a field goal. Looked a lot like the two regular season games.

Manchester got one back late in the first, but the period had to qualify as just what Hershey was looking for – a fast start that got their fans (including The Peerless – the “1” in the 9,001 official attendance) into it.

Speaking of fans getting into it, The Peerless had a fine seat in section 121, right next to the tunnel to the Manchester players’ bench. This afforded us the opportunity to once more be entertained by the Hershey faithful making life annoying to the visitors. As the goals mounted, the barbs got louder and more specific. Doug Nolan and Petr Kanko were singled out for special abuse. It got bad enough to where one of the Monarchs decided to spray water on the fans behind the bench. Well, actually, it would get even worse than that . . . in the third period, fans were taking advantage of the architecture (the gap between the panes of glass behind the bench) to let the Monarchs have it. Oleg Tverdovsky took a two handed swing at the glass behind his bench out of frustration over what was happening in front of the bench and the razzing he was getting from behind it. One is tempted to say it was the only shot he took all night . . . well, the only one that hit anything. Head Coach Mark Morris then called over referee Terry Koharski to do something about it. Koharski called security over to quell the fans and restore a modicum of decorum (yeah, right).

The product of this abuse was Hershey adding a goal in the second (offset by a Manchester tally), then piling on with three in the third, the first two of which chased LaBarbera – making him 0-for-2 in finishing games in Hershey this year. Barry Brust waved as a drive by Kyle Wilson went sailing by to end the scoring for the evening.

Observations . . .

-- Manchester won 51 games this year; they can’t be that bad. But they were very bad tonight. They simply could not match Hershey physically.

-- One gets the feeling Louis Robitaille emerged from his mother’s womb jawing at the doctor.

-- Tomas Fleischmann has really done all he can do at this level. Three more assists – that’s eight points in his last two playoff games, kids.

-- David Steckel really had a fine game, and that was without the weird shorthanded goal where he pushed LaBarbera and the puck into the net.

-- Frederic Cassivi played what looked like a very “calm” game – no wasted movement. He seemed to be in position where he needed to be just about all night.

-- If there was one concern tonight, it was that after the third goal in the first, Hershey looked as if they took their foot off the gas. They were about to run Manchester right out of the rink and almost let them back into the game.

-- We’ll say it again…Hershey is a fine place to watch a game. Even better when they win.

-- LaBarbera was of a mind that the goals were fluky . . . “They were BS bounces," he commented after the game . . . o-o-o-o-o-o-kay.

-- Monarch’s coach Mark Morris was more succinct . . . "We were totally outclassed." The Peerless thinks that a fair assessment.

-- And is it me, or does Jason LaBarbera look like a cross between Elmer Fudd and Vlade Divac?

Or maybe just Elmer…

Mail Bag

The Peerless has been rather occupied in other mundane pursuits this spring, and the ol’ mail bag is kind of full. So let’s just take a moment to look at what is on the mind of Vox Capuli these days…

Dear Peerless,

Dainius Zubrus averaged more than 20 minutes per game in the first three games of the Sabres-Senators series; the Sabres lost all three. He played barely four minutes in Game 4; the Sabres won . . . coincidence?

Signed,

George

Dear George,

No, it’s not coincidence; it is part of a larger cosmic web of forces of which we have only the dimmest of knowledge. But research continues apace to describe the why’s and how’s of this mysterious force…

**********

Dear Peerless,

The Nats have used 16 pitchers so far this year. What I want to know is, if Nick Backstrom gets the ball over the plate on Sunday, will Manny send him down to the pen to help in middle relief?

Signed,

Jim B.

Dear Jim,

If Backstrom doesn’t short-hop it, he’ll get the start.

**********

Dear Peerless,

Does Buffalo have a chance?

Signed,

Zubie

Dear Zubie,

No

*********

Dear Peerless,

Second place sucks.

Signed,

Finland

Dear Finland,

Five times in 10 years in three different tournaments…well, you’d know, wouldn’t you?

**********

Dear Peerless,

OK . . . Hershey, Manchester. What should we look for?

Signed,

Coco

Dear Coco,

Think of it as a line . . . 4.23, .769.

That is Manchester goalie Jason LaBarbera’s goals against average and save percentage in the first period of two games against Hershey this year. If Hershey scores early, one wonders about the confidence of LaBarbera.

And with that, The Peerless is off to Hershey.

They Caught Me

From the Bears' web site . . . and no, The Peerless is not wearing one of those puck hats...

What happened to Buffalo?

The Sabres just skated off on the short end of a 1-0 result in Game 3 against the Ottawa Senators and find themselves looking up the steep walls of a 3-0 hole in games.

What's happened to Buffalo?

The Sabres won the President's Trophy in the regular season, largely on their ability to score goals -- they led the league in scoring. But there is a deception in that. Buffalo is a very balanced team, a characteristic that could wear down lesser teams. But they lack a certain high-end skill level. There really isn't a true "elite" player on their roster. Daniel Briere has had a nice year, but he might be in the best possible setting for his skill, too. Chris Drury is one of the true "clutch" players in the league, but he's never been a point-a-game player. The Sabres have almost an entire squad of what amount to 3-4 defensemen instead of a real "top pair" type. It was more than enough, in the regular season, to mask a weakness...

...special teams.

Buffalo was second (to Detroit) in the NHL in 5-on-5 effectiveness during the regular season. They lead the playoffs in that measure this spring by a wide margin. But in the regular season the Sabres special teams were rather average -- 17.4 percent on the power play (tied for 17th) and 81.4 percent in penalty killing (20th). The "special teams index" (power play success plus penalty killing success) of 98.8 was virtually identical to that of Boston (98.9), which did not make the playoffs. That weakness has been magnified and exploited in the playoffs. While the Sabres dispatched the Islanders quickly in the opening round, they struggled with the Rangers in the second round in a six game series. The last five games of that series were of the one-goal variety, and two of them went to overtime. Ottawa is not dominating the Sabres in this third round series, but they have been the better team over most stretches of play.

It is at this time of year when Buffalo's balance at the expense of high-end skill might be working against them. They have no consistent answer -- either on offense or on defense -- for the Senators' top line of Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza, and Dany Heatley. This is reflected in a difficulty in special teams play at both ends, which has been a problem for the Sabres in this tournament -- a carry over from the regular season.

Look again at the idea of the "special teams index." Buffalo's mark of 89.0 so far in the playoffs is 14th among the 16 playoff teams -- only Atlanta and Minnesota are worse. In this series, that index stands at 76.5, including a big "o-fer"(0-for-18) on the power play. Compare that 89.0 number with the other three teams remaining in the playoffs:

Anaheim: 123.7
Ottawa: 114.6
Detroit: 107.9

Special teams are killing the Sabres, but it's a slow death that really began in the regular season.

Top Pick Slick Nick Reported Fine to Sign on Bottom Line

A Swedish hockey site reports that Nicklas Backstrom, the fourth overall pick in the 2006 entry draft, has agreed to terms on a rookie contract with the Capitals similar to those in the contract of Alexander Ovechkin. If confirmed, this is not unexpected, but his signing was not a sure thing, either.

Let the speculation begin. The Peerless thinks Backstrom will be penciled in as the number two center to start the season, between Alexander Semin and a right wing to be named later (it could be Eric Fehr, but The Peerless thinks this a long shot for three reasons – one, he’s still on the shelf with a back injury, and these things are often hard to predict; two, two rookies and a mercurial (if talented) player seems too combustible a mix for a team that needs consistency; and three, he’s likely not to be ready to assume a full scoring line role anyway).

And as for the comparisons, The Peerless is going to inject a measure of caution into the discussion. Of course, the ready comparison is to Peter Forsberg (which is cause for caution…). So, let’s compare them in their first three years in the Swedish Elite League:

Forsberg (with MoDo Hockey Ornskoldsvik):

Year 1: 23 games, 7-10-17
Year 2: 39 games, 9-19-28
Year 3: 39 games, 23-24-47
-- Team Sweden (Olympics): 8 games, 2-6-8

Backstrom (with Brynas):

Year 1: 19 games, 0-0-0
Year 2: 46 games, 10-16-26
Year 3: 45 games, 12-28-40

Forsberg played one full year and part of another with MoDo before joining Quebec in the 1994-1995 season at the age of 21. Backstrom will be joining the Caps with less SEL experience and at a younger age (he will not be 20 until November 23^rd). Before folks start conjuring images of a second Calder Trophy in three years in the Caps trophy case, let’s just let the kid settle in . . .

Waiting on Varlamov

Semen Varlamov . . .

- Number one goaltender in waiting
- Drafted in 2006 – 23rd pick overall
- 15-7-6, 2.12 for Lokomotiv Yaroslavl in the RSL in 2006-2007
- 5-1, 1.51, .934 in the 2007 U20 IIHF World Championship
- 3-0, 0.33, .980 in the 2006 Five Nations Tournament

Going to be a star . . . sooner rather than later. Whoops, not so fast. Here is a list representing some of the finest European goaltenders in the NHL today:

Miikka Kiprusoff (25)
Dominik Hasek (26)
Henrik Lundqvist (23)
Kari Lehtonen (22)
Tomas Vokoun (22)
Evgeni Nabokov (25)
Nikolai Khabibulin (22)
Antero Niittymaki (25)

And here are two more, for good measure

Vesa Toskala (26)
Ilya Bryzgalov (25)

What are those numbers in parentheses? Their ages when they reached 20 games played in a season in the NHL. Why are Toskala and Bryzgalov set apart? Neither of those guys -- talented as they appear to be -- have played half their team's games in an NHL season yet.

Average age for the ten?...24. Varlamov is 19. He will be 24 on April 27, 2012

Expecting him to assume the mantle of "number one goaltender" for the Capitals before, say, the 2010-2011 season is a stretch, perhaps a big stretch.

Playoffs ain't for rookies

Of the top 100 scorers in the playoffs thus far (well, 107, given ties), only seven are rookies. Of the top 40 goal scorers (ok, 42), three are rookies.

The Peerless Heads to Hershey . . .

The Peerless has just returned from Hershey, where the Bears put the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins out of their misery with a 7-6 overtime win at Giant Center. It was nothing if not entertaining.

First, The Peerless was seated just behind the player benches, where he got a full measure of heckling, Hershey style. The fans never let up on everyone’s favorite AHL bad-guy, Dennis Bonvie. Bonvie, who probably had a half-dozen shifts all night, was given the nickname “The Doorman” for his prowess at manning the bench door as players were coming off. Bonvie gave as good as he got, jawing with the fans and once resorting to squirting fans with a water bottle in the row behind the bench. J-F Jacques – who ended the season of center Joey Tenute earlier in the series – was another special object of Hershey fans’ affection.

As for the game, what it lacked in pure aesthetics (especially in defense and goaltending) it made up for in determination. The Penguins came out just as one might expect a team down 3-1 to come out – full of urgency. They carried the play to the Bears early, and the pressure paid off with a goal by Marc-Antoine Pouliot four minutes in. Then, the march to the penalty box began in earnest . . . Wilkes-Barre took the first two penalties to give the Bears a shot five-on-three. Scott Barney would make them pay, tying the game at 6:25. From there, it was two club throwing haymakers at one another. By the time the ice chips settled at the end of the period, it was 4-3 in favor of Hershey on the scoreboard, and 5-5 in penalties.

There were two story lines building for Hershey in that first period. Scott Barney had two goals, both coming on 5-on-3 power plays. And, Tomas Fleischmann totaled three assists. The seven goals scored by the two clubs was more than the combined total of first period goals in the series (six). Wilkes-Barre wasn’t going without a fight, and Hershey wasn’t going to relinquish its crown easily.

Things settled down in the second with only three goals scored. The problem for the Bears was, two of them were scored by the Penguins – one on the power play and one shorthanded. The Bears goal came courtesy of Barney, who completed the hat trick. At 5-5 after two, it was clearly a case of last to score wins.

Wilkes-Barre took it second lead of the game in the first minute of the third period, but the Bears got it back on a goal by Fleischmann four minutes later (his fifth point, tying a franchise playoff record). The only thing surprising was the fact that no goals were scored in the last 15 minutes of regulation. Perhaps not coincidentally, no penalties were called in those last 15 minutes, despite there having been 21 penalties called to that point.

Going to overtime has not been kind to Hershey thus far, their only two losses in the tournament thus far coming on the first shot in the first minute of overtime. Given that 12 goals had been scored, one did not have the feeling that the game would last long. The Peerless was of a mind that it would end by 10 pm . . . and by this time it was about 9:55.

As if on cue, the Bears took a penalty in the first minute of the extra frame, but less than a minute later the Penguins gave it back with a penalty of their own as Joe Jensen bowled over Frederic Cassivi in the crease and was called for goaltender interference. Cassivi was slow to get up and was a bit groggy when he did, but he remained in the game. The Penguins then took another penalty, and after they killed the short 5-on-3, took yet another to put themselves back on the short end of a 5-on-3. Ten seconds later, Alexandre Giroux banged home a rebound of a Chris Bourque shot from in close to send the fans leaping out of their seats and the Penguins into the off-season.

Some observations . . .

- The Peerless’ ears still hurt. He’d almost forgotten what a game winning goal in overtime is like for the home team.

- Tomas Fleischmann was a driven young man from the drop of the puck. When he took possession of the puck, he owned it. He could have had three or four more assists if the timing had been a little better on the back-end of tap-in chances.

- The Bears were the vastly more skilled team on the ice, but the Penguins were the harder-working team for most of the game.

- Frederic Cassivi was a half-step slow all night. As Bruce Boudreau suggested in the post-game interview, for 40 minutes the goaltending wasn’t very good (his comments applied to Nolan Schafer at the other end, too). But then, too, as Boudreau noted, Cassivi made the key save when he had to.

- Chris Bourque was flattened on a check, and if it wasn’t potentially serious (he was more or less blind-sided), it would have been funny . . . he was hit so hard that when he came up, his head looked to have been sheared off. His head was shoved down through the neck of his jersey, and he had to “pop out” as he was skating back into the play.

- Derek Engelland extracted his pound of flesh from J-F Jacques, winning a decision in their fight. What The Peerless found amusing about it was Jacques jawing to the linesman for letting Engelland throw a few more punches after it looked as if the two had spent themselves.

- Nygel Pelletier is the worst – no, really . . . the worst referee The Peerless has ever seen. He should be bagging groceries at the Giant on Route 15. The Peerless thinks he probably tore a rotator cuff in his shoulder with all the raising of his hand for penalties – he called 25.

- It sounded as if the Penguin fans that made the trek down had a “horn guy.” He sounded like a sea elephant with a toothache . . . wah-h-h-h-h-h-h . . . ah-h-h-h-h . . .ah-h-h-h . . .

- For the Bears, 11 skaters scored points . . . 12 took penalties. It was a busy night.

- The folks at Giant Center are so doggone nice. If you have a car, and you don’t drive up to catch the Bears, you’re missing a mighty entertaining night of hockey.

The Peerless Brings You . . . The Prognostos for the Conference Finals

Eastern Finals --

Buffalo Sabres (1) – Ottawa Senators (4)

Season Series: Buffalo 3-5-0/Ottawa 5-2-1
Series Theme: Someone has to win this thing…
Fun Fact: Ottawa and Buffalo are the highest scoring teams thus far in the playoffs (goals-per-game)

Buffalo is heralded as the standard-bearer for the Nu NHL. They are lauded as having come out of the lockout as the team best prepared to take advantage of the new rules and new tight rein on infractions. They are speedy, skilled, and balanced. If they lack a true “franchise” player, they have more depth than any team left. They have a young, improving goaltender. They reached the conference final last year and do so again this year. They were the pick of many (including yours truly) to make the Stanley Cup final this year.

On the other hand, Ottawa is (and here is a delicious irony) the “throwback” team – one with a top-end top line – Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza, and Dany Heatley (who represent three of the top four scorers in this tournament) – and some grit in guys like Mike Fisher, Chris Neil, and Anton Volchenkov. Ray (no, really...Ray) Emery has been, if not spectacular, consistent and steady in goal. He’s allowed three or fewer goals in nine of the 12 games he’s played thus far (including the game 1 win last night).

Here is your fun stat to watch . . . both teams are undefeated when scoring first (Buffalo, 4-0; Ottawa, 7-0).

Ottawa has been a higher scoring team, has been a better defensive team, has a better winning percentage, has a better power play, has a better penalty kill, has had an ability to jump on clubs early (outscoring clubs 11-7 in the first period), then stand on their throats (outscoring them 14-6 in the second, and 13-9 in the third). Ottawa has peaked at the right time; there is nothing that really points to a Sabre win here. Still, The Peerless picked the Sabres in October, and he’s dancing with who brung him . . .

Buffalo in seven.

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Western Finals –

Detroit Red Wings (1) – Anaheim Ducks (2)
Season Series: Anaheim 2-2-0/Detroit 2-2-0
Series Theme: “Style vs. Stomp”
Fun Fact: Anaheim and Detroit are the stingiest defenses thus far in the playoffs (goals-per-game)

Here is where this series is headed . . . Ottawa has scored 38 goals in 11 games so far. Anaheim and Detroit have allowed a combined 36 in 22 games . . . first to two wins.

Each team achieves their defensive prowess using very different methods. Detroit essentially plays keep away with the puck . . . hard to score if Detroit is always spinning and cycling in your zone. They simply do not allow you to play with the puck long enough to shoot (a playoff low 22.8 shots allowed per game). On the other hand, Anaheim does it with perhaps the top two defenders in the game, certainly the playoffs, in Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger (with all due respect to Nicklas Lidstrom, who is the gold standard for two-way defensemen). However, the scary part (if you’re a Red Wing fan) is that while Ilya Bryzgalov played very well in opening the tournament for the Duck, Jean-Sebastien Giguere has been sick in his efficiency . . . 5-1, 1.28, .952 in seven games. True, that was compiled against a couple of offense-challenged clubs in Vancouver and Minnesota, but Giguere hasn’t yet allowed more than two goals in a game, and two of those games went more than 80 minutes.

Only one forward between these teams is in the top-15 in scoring, and he might be the key to the entire proceedings – Pavel Datsyuk. He’s had a hand in more than a third of the Red Wings’ scoring (11 points, 31 total goals for Detroit). He’s scored in six contests so far . . . the Red Wings have won every one. Detroit is 2-4 when Datsyuk is held off the score sheet.

Anaheim is closer to the “old NHL” style club than any of the four left. They can beat you or beat you up, and the latter is not merely a function of their ability to drop the gloves (they led the league – by far – in fighting majors this season). They are a large club – while their centers tend to the light side, their wingers and defensemen are space-eaters.

This is almost like a classic boxing match – the dancer against the bruiser. Hockey being a hard game (and the fact that The Peerless picked Anaheim to win it all this year), the nod goes to the Ducks . . .

Anaheim in six.

Stuff for the Discerning Fan

Rentals . . .

Deadline rentals . . . the stuff of fan discussion, column inches, and pundit perspectives. 2007 was no different. Teams on the cusp of the playoffs or looking to make a deep run mortgaged some (or in a few cases, a lot) of their futures for a chance to grab the ring. Did it matter? Did it make a difference? Well, let’s take a look at the “seven-figure” rentals – the ones who earned at least $1 million this year and who are likely to ask for (if not command) more in free agency…

New York Islanders: Ryan Smyth (2007 salary: $3.5 million)
Record after trade: 8-7-4 (reg. season)/1-4 (playoffs)
The costs: Robert Nilsson, Ryan O’Marra, 1^st round pick (2007)

This deal perhaps had the most emotional baggage attached to it, Smyth being Mr. Oiler in Edmonton. Smyth was 5-10-15, even, in 18 games to close the regular season and 1-3-4, +1, in the five game loss to Buffalo in the first round. The Islanders have the crash-bang style that might appeal to a player like Smyth in free agency.

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Buffalo Sabres: Dainius Zubrus (2007 salary: $1.85 million) and Timo Helbling
Record after trade: 11-6-2 (reg. season)/8-3 (playoffs)
The costs: Jiri Novotny, 1^st round pick (2007)

The Sabres were tweaking their roster for a deep playoff run with this move. Zubrus didn’t exactly light it up for the Sabres in the 19 games after the trade, going 4-4-8, -3. So far in the playoffs, he is 0-8-8, +2, in 11 games. He plays a different role, not to mention a different position (right wing), than he played in Washington – one more suited to his skills it would seem. But, five of his eight assists were registered in his first and last games thus far in the playoffs; he has been largely silent on the score sheet otherwise. He hasn’t had a goal in more than a month, and his impact doesn’t seem to merit a $3,000,000 a year deal, either.

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San Jose Sharks: Bill Guerin (2007 salary: $2.0 million)
Record after trade: 13-2-4 (reg. season)/6-5 (playoffs)
The costs: Ville Nieminen, Jay Barriball, 1^st round pick (2007)

The Sharks – one of the youngest clubs in the playoff hunt – went looking for a veteran forward and landed Guerin for a relatively paltry price. Good thing. Never among the most notable playoff performers (96 games, 28-20-48, -15, coming into the playoffs over his career), he was positively invisible in the San Jose run into the second round. 0-2-2, -3, in nine games wasn’t part of the game plan here.

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Pittsburgh Penguins: Gary Roberts (2007 salary: $2.25 million)
Record after trade: 14-4-2 (reg. season)/1-4 (playoffs)
The costs: Noah Welch

“Grit” is one of the key terms in the glossary of hockey. Roberts has it oozing from his pores. He is a chippy, ornery, belligerent cuss that every club in the NHL and their fans hate . . . unless he’s on your club playing for your fans. He was 7-6-13, -5, in 19 games. He didn’t miss a beat in the playoffs – 2-2-4, even, in the five game loss to the Senators. He’s a character guy, a “role” guy, and he played his part very well. The skill guys came up short against Ottawa. Roberts didn’t have enough of that to drag the youngsters into the second round, but that really isn’t his problem. However, Pittsburgh isn’t a team with a lot of prospect depth on the blue line, and this acquisition cost them Noah Welch.

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Atlanta Thrashers: Keith Tkachuk (2007 salary: $3.8 million)
Record after trade: 12-5-1 (reg. season)/0-4 (playoffs)
The costs: Glen Metropolit, 1^st round pick (2007), 3^rd round pick (2007), 2^nd round pick (2008)

Going 7-8-15, +8, to close the regular season made this deal look not nearly as bad as it did on paper (and it looked like desperation on the part of Thrasher management). But then there were the playoffs . . . 1-2-3, +2, in a four game sweep at the hands of the Rangers. There was also the curious lack of playing time befitting such an acquisition – less than 17 minutes a game. Atlanta had a club-wide meltdown in their first-ever playoff appearance, but isn’t that what trades like this are intended to avoid? The thing is, this isn’t even the worst deadline deal the Thrashers made (the Braydon Coburn for Alexei Zhitnik deal wins that prize…Zhitnik has two more seasons to run on a $3.5 million/year deal)

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Carolina Panthers: Anson Carter (2007 salary: $2.5 million)
Record after trade: 9-9-1 (reg. season)
The costs: 2008 5^th round pick

1-0-1, -3 in barely ten minutes a game over ten games. That’s a pretty good working definition of “bust.” That Carter cost only the 5^th rounder next summer is the only saving grace.

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Nashville Predators: Peter Forsberg (2007 salary: $5.75 million)
Record after trade: 12-6-5 (reg. season)/1-4 (playoffs)
The costs: Scottie Upshall, Ryan Parent, 1^st round pick (2007), 3^rd round pick (2007)

Forsberg was 2-11-13, +5, in 17 games to close the regular season. Given his recent history, he was remarkably durable down the stretch. He was 2-2-4, +2 in five playoff games, but the price paid to secure him makes that statistical line look very, very disappointing. One playoff win makes the deal look absurd.

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Dallas Stars: Ladislav Nagy (2007 salary: $3.0 million)
Record after the trade: 16-5-5 (reg. season)/3-4 (playoffs)
The costs: Mathias Tjarnqvist, 1^st round pick (2007)

Nagy was 4-10-14, -3, in 25 games to close the regular season. He was not a factor in the playoffs, going 1-1-2, +1, in the seven-game series against Vancouver. With offense at as much a premium as it was in that series (of course, Roberto Luongo and Marty Turco had a little to do with that), the lack of production was keenly felt.

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If one looks at these deals in retrospect, the question that almost leaps from one’s mouth is, “why?” Rentals this year didn’t have close to their intended or desired effect. The most successful rentals, which I would argue here are the Zubrus and Roberts deals, reflect acquisitions of second-tier players who play rather specific roles. But, looking back across these deals (and only one of these guys is still playing), The Peerless can’t help but think that rentals are more to calm a restless fan base that wants their club to “do something” at the deadline than they are critical contributors to their new club’s success.

The Peerless Goes a'Traveling

The Peerless had the opportunity to take in Game 3 of the East Division final of the Calder Cup playoff tournament Saturday night. The Hershey Bears visited the Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins looking to take a “commanding” – as they say – three-games-to-none lead in the series. Having won the first two games by scores of 4-3 (the second in overtime after spotting the Penguins a 3-0 lead), the matter hardly seemed assured. So, The Peerless was anticipating a close, hard-fought (even with Dennis Bonvie not dressed for the Penguins) battle.

Giant Arena at Casey Plaza . . . oops, pardon me . . . Wachovia Arena at Casey Plaza was resplendent in Hershey colors. Bear jerseys were as plentiful as Penguin jerseys or “White Out Warrior” T-shirts donned by Penguin fans for the occasion. Neither team had a great deal to root for in the first half of the first period. The teams exchanged two minor penalties in the first five minutes, and both failed to convert – a theme that would repeat itself often over the course of this game.

Shortly after the second Penguin power play was killed, the Penguins made a mistake. Defenseman Micki DuPont, instead of moving the puck to his partner, tried to escape the forecheck of Alexandre Giroux. DuPont turned the puck over, and Giroux fed Matt Hendricks for a one-timer past Penguin goalie Nolan Schaefer.

The Bears celebrated by taking four more minor penalties in the period, killing them all. The Penguins – despite the five power plays – finished the period with six shots on goal.

The second period was more of the same – Hershey penalties followed by missed opportunities (or more accurately, opportunities not taken) by the Penguins, and then an opportunistic goal by the Bears. Quintin Laing found Schaefer’s five-hole at 13:16 of the period, and after that the Bears relied on stifling defense and really bad ice to frustrate the Penguins.

The third period was played largely between the blue lines, although the Penguins managed to register a few inconsequential shots on goal late to finish with 19 in the 2-0 loss.

Neither team looked especially sharp, perhaps understandable after having logged a double-overtime game the night before. However, 19 shots for a club received ten power plays is nothing but hideous. Wilkes-Barre seemed almost obstinate in refusing to shoot the puck. While many drives were blocked or sent wide, the Penguins spent too much time moving the puck around the perimeter looking for the easy tap-in or trying to settle the puck to wind up and drive. At one point in the procedings the Penguins had only ten total shots on goal despite having had seven power plays.

For the Bears, Frederic Cassivi did what a goalie has to do – make all the saves he should make and a few he perhaps shouldn’t (there were few of the latter). Dave Steckel was a man among boys in the defensive end. Mike Green played a solid game. Chris Bourque was a bundle of energy all night, but often seemed unable to channel it into anything productive. He looked like a player who needs another year at this level, but one who also has a future in the NHL.

The Peerless really likes these occasional journeys to the land of the AHL. Wilkes-Barre is where The Peerless grew up, but Wachovia (and Giant Center) is one of those arenas where sound seems magnified and the crowd has a bond with their club. There are NHL cities like that, but none of them are (for the moment) spelled, “Washington.” There is something about watching a game at Wachovia or at Giant Center that one just can’t seem to replicate in the bigger arenas.

Whether that will hold true for the “Baby Penguins” next year is an open question. As the Oiler prospects that dot that club move on to Edmonton or to Springfield under the new affiliation agreement, the club left behind in Wilkes-Barre will be a very different one than that which those fans have grown used to. It is not likely to be as successful as this year’s version, the Penguin prospects of note having mostly reached the big club. The same might be said for Hershey. More to the point, the Bears had better have a very different look about them next year. If they do not, then it is indicative that there are troubles in the Caps end of the rebuild.

In the meantime, though, these are games to be enjoyed and the Bears a team to be followed closely. They have the look of a club that knows how to play and, more importantly at this time of year, how to play when the stakes are higher. If you have a chance to see them in person, by all means take advantage of that opportunity.