The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Thrashers, January 6th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s Southeast Shootout time, once more, as the Caps return to divisional play to take on the Atlanta Thrashers, who this morning are not likely in a good mood. The Thrashers took a three-goal lead against the suddenly surprising Phoenix Coyotes early in the third period. The 4-1 lead should have ended the competitive portion of the contest. Well, it didn’t.

Phoenix scored a goal of its own a little over a minute later, then added goals by Shane Doan and Owen Nolan to tie things up before Yanic Perreault won it in overtime, 5-4.

After a five-game winning streak in late-December, Atlanta has gone on to stub their figurative toe in the last four, going 1-2-1. And the problem, as it usually is in such cases, is defense. The Thrashers have given up 16 goals in this short stretch; in their only win they gave up but two. Special teams have been a particular problem. Their inability to kill penalties effectively (72.7 percent of 22 chances) has been a problem matched by a power play that has converted on two of 16 chances (12.5 percent).

Atlanta had been among the more formidable road-scoring teams in the league but have dropped to tenth in per-game road scoring (2.87 goals/game). If there is one place the Thrashers struggle on the road – a point amplified in their last four games – it is on special teams. They are in the middle of the pack in goals scored (12th in goals with 17, 16th in conversions at 15.6 percent) but are dead last in the league in goals allowed (30) and 26th in penalty killing conversions (75.8 percent).

As usual, the Thrasher to look for is Jonathan Sim, Capital Killer (note: his contract -- $610,000 –- is up after this year . . . signing him might be the best thing the Caps can do for their defense, given that they see this guy eight times a year – short of trading a seventh round pick for Scott Niedermayer). Sim is 3-2-5, +1 in five games against the Caps this year, 11-6-17, +6 in 19 games for his career.

Oh yeah, the Thrashers have Marian Hossa, Vyacheslav Kozlov and Ilya Kovalchuk, too . . . they happen to be the numbers 2, 17, and 21 scorers in the league.

Kari Lehtonen should be returning to the nets tonight (Johan Hedberg played and took the loss last night), and that is not good news for the home team. His overall stats are not especially noteworthy – 2.79 GAA (21st), .912 (16th) – but he’s never lost to the Caps in regulation. He is 2-0-1 this year, 5-0-1 for his career.

Washington finished the first half 17-17-4, 41 points, which is better than where they were last year after 41 games (13-23-5, 31 points) and a lot better than two years ago (11-25-4-1, 27 points), but that 1-7-0 stretch to end the year (including New Year’s Day) left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth.

The Caps won in their last time out, though – a 5-1 win over the Montreal Canadiens. And in doing so, they danced with what brung ‘em to a 15-10-7 record on December 16th – timely scoring (pairs of goals by Dainius Zubrus and Alexander Semin), solid goaltending, low-risk defenseman play, responsible play from the forwards, and a bit of luck (Saku Koivu taking a penalty to wash out the tying goal when the game was sill in doubt, for example).

That’s what it will take tonight. Atlanta has the firepower – and that Sim guy – to make things ugly for a club that doesn’t bring its “A” game, especially on defense. It will start in goal, where Olaf Kolzig should get the nod. The thing is, though, Kolzig’s record against this club is not as good as one might expect for having faced what has been a bad club for most of its existence. Kolzig is 0-2-1 against the Thrashers this year, 12-10-4-2 for his career. It’s not as if his statistics against the Thrashers (2.72, .906) are much different than his overall career stats (2.68, .907). The Caps have often played just good enough to lose in front of him.

If you’re looking for one Cap to have a good night tonight, it would be a guy who could use one, goal-scoring wise. Alexander Ovechkin is 4-4-8 in five games against the Thrashers this year, 9-13-22 in 13 games in his career. Ovechkin, who has slipped to third in the goal scoring race, hasn’t had a goal in his last five games, one game off his career high (twice last year).

Other Caps to watch would include Dainius Zubrus, who on the heels of his two-goal effort against Montreal comes into this game 4-4-8 in five games against Atlanta this year, Alexander Semin, who has four goals in eight career games against the Thrashers, and Chris Clark, who has five points in five games this year.

In this morning’s Washington Post article, Dainius Zubrus made the point that "If our point shot [on the power play] is a threat, that forces the other teams to come out to challenge it, and that opens things up down low. The other thing is we need to shoot when we have a chance. Sometimes our mentality is to make the perfect play and score into an empty net. Power-play goals are about rebounds or bounces." While that is true in light of the Caps power play problems recently (9-for-58, 15.5 percent in their last ten games),it hints at a related point. The Caps haven’t been much of a threat in terms of scoring from defensemen. This was especially true during the 1-7-0 stretch, when the Caps had a total of three goals from defensemen, one in the last seven games of that streak. However, the addition of Lawrence Nycholat has opened up things a bit. He has two goals in his last four games, and Brian Pothier chipped in with his first of the year in the one-goal loss to Phoenix on New Year’s Day.

The Caps broke the schneid against the Thrashers in their last contest, thanks to some late-game heroics from Alexander Ovechkin, who scored a hat trick and the game-winning overtime goal. The Caps appear to be emerging from their holiday nap, but this will be a test of whether they are ready to make a January push to be a contender, or if they are still marking time.

Caps 4 – Thrashers 3.

Home is where the heart is...

Three teams in the East have losing records at home . . .

The Flyers -- who suck on toast -- are 3-11-4, and Tampa Bay is 10-11-0.

The other is the Caps, 9-10-3.

Not an easy way to make the playoffs.

Whither, Jakub Klepis?

Over 33 games, the young forward has been seeing his ice time diminish to the point of being discernible only with the use of sophisticated optics. In his last 13 games, he’s been on the ice at least 10 minutes three times. Last night, against Montreal, he saw what might have been his low point as an NHL player. He was on the ice for two shifts and was apparently benched for the night after taking a hooking penalty at the 7:50 mark of the first period. Only a single takeaway otherwise contributed to his scoresheet line for the evening.

It isn’t as if he’s played especially badly in the last month – one in which his ice time has decreased precipitously – but he hasn’t really asserted himself in a manner commensurate with his skill. From the stands, it’s hard to tell if he’s coasting or becoming timid. But, he is largely a transparent figure on the ice. A player of his offensive upside should be making more than an impact than having more than one shot on goal only three times since Thanksgiving. And, he seems to have a propensity for taking the lazy penalty. If you look at his PIMs, they are not of a high volume on their own (24 minutes overall), but of the 12 minors he’s taken this year in his 33 games, seven are for hooking (as was last night’s apparent “here’s your wake up call, kid” penalty). Three have been for holding and the other two for interference.

Enough time has passed in the new scheme of things in the league where persistently drawing these kinds infractions should have come to an end. That they haven’t is unfortunate, because the young man’s whole game right now just looks like a mess, and he’s a better player than that.

Is there a trip to Hershey in his near future? Well, it wouldn’t be the worst thing for him, similar to sending a young hitting prospect down to the minors so he can find his swing and get his head screwed back on.

But something has to give. Klepis has too much to contribute in the long term to this club for this to continue much longer.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Canadiens

1-0

It was the 41st game of the season, the end of the first half of the season, but the second half really started last night. And the Caps applied some payback to a Montreal Canadiens team that spanked them in their first visit to Verizon Center last month. The 5-1 win was welcome in several respects:

- It was the first time in five games that the first line of Alexander Ovechkin, Dainius Zubrus, and Chris Clark (which began and ended the game as a line, perhaps signaling the end of the experiment of Alexander Semin spending time on that line) scored a goal. Zubrus netted two goals on his only two credited shots of the game – he almost had a hat trick in the third but found the side of the post on a shot.

- Alexander Ovechkin had three assists to give the top line five points for the night. Ovechkin’s three-pointer vaulted him to third in the scoring race (25-29-54) behind Marian Hossa and someone else.

- Mike Green had four credited hits to lead the club. Green has been something of an anonymous player the last few weeks, but last night was the ninth straight game he’s been either even of a plus player. In the midst of the Caps troubles, that’s something of an achievement.

- If your looking for differences (other than the score) in the numbers between this game and the December 27th game between these clubs, well, good luck . . . the Caps outshot the Habs 35-28 last night (31-28 in December) . . . were even in hits, 20-20 (were out-hit in a less-than-physical game in December, 15-10) . . . even in takeaways, 17-17 (losing that battle in the last game, 8-4) . . . yielded fewer giveaways, 16-20 (versus giving up more, 8-4, in December) . . .

- But there was this – the Caps lost the face off battle by only 31-30 (they lost, 30-23 in December). That might seem significant, except if you deconstruct some of the Caps’ scoring. They scored their first after Zubrus won an offensive zone faceoff, Ovechkin sent a backhander to the net, and Zubrus pounced on the rebound for the score. Washington scored its third goal in slightly different fashion, winning a neutral zone faceoff after a penalty call on Saku Koivu (more on that to come), but netting a goal (Lawrence Nycholat) about half a minute later. Face offs are not the be-all or end-all of success, but doing the little things are important.

- None of this should diminish the face that the turning point came on a Montreal goal that wasn’t. With 7:18 gone in the second Alexei Kovalev appeared to tie the game, 2-2, but the goal was immediately and emphatically washed out by the referee who whistled Saku Koivu for goaltender interference, where as he was skating through the top of the crease nudged goaltender Olaf Kolzig and caused Kolzig to lose his grip on his stick. Habs fans didn’t much like it, but it appeared to be the correct call. And, it put the Canadiens on their heels, especially when Nycholat scored less than a minute later and Alexander Semin less than a minute after that, giving the Caps a 4-1 lead and chasing goalie Cristobal Huet. Montreal, which is not nearly as fearsome an offensive team as they are a defensive one, had dug themselves too deep a hole.

Now, for some odd numbers . . .

Zero – the Caps had 13 skaters register hits last night. Alexander Ovechkin was not among them.

Even, -7 – That’s the combined plus-minus of Chris Higgins, Saku Koivu, Michael Ryder in the first game, and what they were last night . . . tough night.

11-3 – that’s the faceoffs won and lost by Dainius Zubrus. No other Cap had a .500 percentage. Well, Brooks Laich did, but he only took one draw (1-0).

12 – Winning games often involves the performance of tasks that really take some effort. The Caps had 20 blocked shots, but 12 of the 18 skaters were involved.

6 – Matt Pettinger had six shots last night, all in the first two periods, to lead the club among players whose name does not end in “vechkin.” But it was his taking one for the team – absorbing a hit from Francois Bouillion while moving the puck up ice – that ultimately sprung Semin for his second goal of the night.

It was a fine night for a club that needed one, a gutsy performance against a quality team. Even the new Speaker of the House was impressed by the strength the Caps showed in this one. It was the right way to begin the real second half of the season.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Canadiens, January 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! . . .

Tonight, we get right back on the horse, put all those losses behind us, start from scratch, it’s 0-0, and . . .

“Hey, you don’t need macadamia nuts to fondle a donkey.”*

Well, isn’t this fortuitous . . . it’s TV’s favorite shrink, Dr. Phil himself – just in time to tackle the woes that have befallen our beloved Capitals. Doc, how are you doin’?

“It’s time to get real!”

o-o-o-o-o-kay, then. Doc, the Caps have been in the doldrums lately. What advice would you give to the boys?

“You don’t need sideburns to eat a bug.”

Ok, Ok, I can understand that . . . sort of. But they’ve really been listless in their own end. They can’t seem to keep the puck out of their own net. Can you shine a light on the problem?

“You don't need a 50-watt light bulb to dance like an idiot 'til yer toes fall off.”

I never thought of it that way . . . but the guys seem to have lacked the fire that characterized their early play. Even Donald Brashear getting into a few scrapes doesn’t seem to have lifted the team . . .

“You don't need bad manners to get all up in somebody's grill, yo.”

I see, I see. But they just don’t seem to want to do the dirty work they need to do to win games lately . . .

“You don't need stain-resistant pants to put some pep in your step.”

That sounds like pretty good advice. Maybe they’re too tight, gripping those sticks a little too hard, do you think they should lighten up a bit?

“You don't need Shemp to dare to be stupid.”

I see . . . and maybe a bit grittier on the ice?

“You don't need a bag of wolverines to shave a weasel.”

No, but it might help . . . So, Dr. Phil . . . any advice for this columnist?

“You don't need an open mind to find your inner moron.”

Uh-huh…OK, so let’s get to the game. Since the last time these clubs met eight days ago, their combined records are 1-5-0, Montreal securing the only win in their last game, against Tampa Bay this past Tuesday. The Canadiens had trouble finding the back of the net for a couple of games, netting only single goals against Florida and Tampa Bay before breaking out with a five-spot against the Lightning in the second half of a home-and-home.

Montreal is not an especially fearsome scoring club on the road. Their 2.63 goals per game average puts them in the bottom third in the league in that statistic and is more than three-quarters of a goal per game worse than their home scoring average. However, their road defense is formidable. They are among the top clubs in fewest goals allowed-per-game (2.47), and no club has given up fewer goals overall on the road. What’s more, they are a very effective penalty killing team on the road – they are fourth in fewest power play goals allowed (14) and lead the NHL in shorthanded goals scored on the road (6). Their power play is a two-edged sword. They are fourth in the NHL in power play conversion on the road (19.5 percent), but stand 26th in total road power play opportunities.

That they would have so many shorthanded goals on the road and covert a high percentage of their own road power plays, few that those opportunities might be, suggests a very opportunistic club against which the Caps almost need to play with their own “road game” mentality. Trying to be too cute or too showy for the benefit of the home crowd could spell trouble. And, they need to take advantage of their own opportunities, something they failed to do in the last meeting, when the Caps converted only one of eight power play chances, and that lone goal (their only one in a 4-1 loss) coming when the game was largely settled.

Montreal doesn’t give up much, and when they do, Cristobal Huet has been up to the task of cleaning up the mess. He’s fifth in the league in GAA among goalies having the majority of their club’s appearances, first in save percentage.

The Caps, on the other hand, have a lot of problems to sort out, but they can be lumped into two broad categories – they give up too many goals, and they don’t score enough. Well…duh. In this 1-7 slide, the Caps have 18 goals scored, 32 allowed. Not only are they losing, they’re falling out of games early. They’re getting outscored by almost two goals a game in this stretch, and in the seven losses they’ve been outscored in the first period, 17-4. In only one of those games did the Caps score first. Even if one takes away the six-goal onslaught by Buffalo in the first period of the December 26th contest, the Caps were outscored 11-3 in six losses. It’s a lot to expect any club to come back from the early holes they consistently dig themselves into, but the Caps have had the added problem of lacking any scoring rhythm. When they were getting production from the top line, no one else seemed to be contributing, and now that there is some sign of life from some of the more unusual scoring suspects, the top line (Alexander Ovechkin-Dainius Zubrus-Chris Clark) hasn’t had a goal in four games.

As for what the Caps might need, let’s leave that one to the good Doctor . . . Doc?

“Sometimes you just got to give yourself what you wish someone else would give you.”

A good swift kick in the ass?

“You got it.”

Caps 2 – Canadiens 1.


* Quotes courtesy of the good folks at Mangy Dog Productions
And, just like those folks, this is not associated with Dr. Phil.

So...how do you create a video?

Watch, and be amazed.

And, in other news . . .

Scoring leaders in the World Under-20 Tournament.

and, goalkeeping leaders.

For those of you scoring at home, Caps picks Oskar Osala and Nicklas Backstrom are tied for fourth and tied for 17th, respectively. Meanwhile, goaltending prospect Semen Varlamov leads all goaltenders in both save percentage and goals against average.

Snack Food Choices

This is why Doritos Nacho Cheese corn chips are far superior to Lays potato chips.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Coyotes

You know what?...I'd rather watch a panda sneeze than write about that gawdawful game.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Coyotes, January 1st

It was January 16, 2006, the blush not even off the new year just yet. The Capitals were winding up a three-game road trip in Phoenix. Mid way through the third period of a 5-1 game, most folks were pondering what might be on another channel. They’d have done well to put the remote down. Brendan Witt dumped the puck out of the Capitals’ defensive zone and off the boards past one of the Coyotes. Alexander Ovechkin picked up the puck in front of the Caps’ bench in full stride just short of the red line. Skating down the right wing side, he was marked by defenseman Paul Mara, who stepped into Ovechkin as the winger was crossing the middle at the top of the circles in the Phoenix zone. Ovechkin lost control of the puck as he tangled with Mara, then tumbled on his side to the ice. As he was sliding toward the left wing corner, he rolled to his back and in one motion brought his stick over his head, snapping it with a flick of his wrist and redirecting the puck into the net past a stunned Brian Boucher in goal. Boucher could only curl up and bury his face in the ice while Steve Gainey could only spin on a skate in disbelief. Lost in this is the presence of mind of linemate Boyd Gordon, trailing the play on the right side, not to tap the puck into the net from the other side, thus washing out the most spectacular goal of the 2005-2006 season. So, where in the world does Alex score from today . . . let us consider a possibility. First period . . . Dainius Zubrus wins the opening draw . . . Steve Eminger corrals the puck in the Capitals’ zone . . . Ovechkin circles into the Caps’ zone, where Eminger feeds him the puck . . . Ovechkin skates out and up the ice, shadowed by Keith Ballard . . . Shane Doan slides over to provide support . . . then Mike Zigomanis . . . then Derek Morris and Oleg Saprykin . . . then Jeremy Roenick (sensing a video moment on which he could be captured) . . . Mike Comrie . . . Georges Laracque . . . Wayne Gretzky, for heaven’s sake (not this time, sonny) . . . the equipment manager throws extra goalie sticks on the ice . . . Ovechkin is still steaming toward the Coyote net . . . more Coyotes come streaming off the bench, piling on top of the rushing winger . . . Ovechkin plants the end of his stick in the ice between the circles and spins about it, kicking Coyotes aside by the dozen . . . more Coyotes flood the ice (hey, Peerless, isn’t this a penalty?), jumping on the winger – Ovechkin lowers a shoulder and springs into the air, flinging Coyotes off his back . . . he flips the puck into the air and with a mighty swat that defies laws of time and motion sends the puck into the back of the Phoenix net. Wayne Gretzky can only turn and whisper, “you are the One . . . “ Too much? Well, anyway, it’s the New Year and a chance to brush the dust of a 1-6-0 finish to the old year off. Phoenix visits Verizon Center with a record of 15-20-2, which is a bit deceiving. The Coyotes are 4-12-1 away from home, although they did manage a win in their last away contest, a 3-2 win against the sturdy San Jose Sharks last Thursday. As befits their dismal road record the Coyotes are dead last in the league in road scoring at 1.88 goals per game. They don’t make up for it with rock-ribbed defense – they are 29th in road goals allowed at 4.18 per game. Their specialty team ranks of 26th in road power play (only one team has scored fewer power play goals) and 27th in road penalty kill (no team has given up more power play goals) round out a poor team statistical profile. Among the skaters, the offense-challenged nature of Phoenix reveals itself. One Coyote has a double-digit goal total – Yanic Perreault (11), who has played only 25 games for the club. No Coyote has 30 points. Aging heartthrob Jeremy Roenick netted a hat trick in his last outing (an 8-0 win over San Jose), which lifted his totals to a still-anemic 4-5-9, -8, in 32 games. Ladislav Nagy – a persistent subject of trade rumors (mostly started by Caps fans, The Peerless believes) – leads the scoring parade . . . well, pub crawl . . . with a 6-22-28 line. The Coyotes are not a club entirely bereft of ability, though. Ed Jovanovski is 7-12-19, -1, and is a strong blue line presence (unfortunately for the Coyotes, he’s missed several games with a groin injury). Yanic Perreault is up to his usual specialty tricks, winning more than 62 percent of his draws. Expect him to take every important draw, including facing off against Ted Leonsis in the owners’ box for the last shrimp on the buffet. Keith Ballard is a promising young defenseman, one of only two (Travis Roche being the other) on the “plus” side of the ledger for the Coyotes. Shane Doan is still a presence worthy of attention. In goal, Curtis Joseph registered the shutout against San Jose last Thursday, so this could mean Mikael Tellqvist gets the nod this afternoon. Both have played decently, particularly lately. Joseph is 2-2-0, 2.32, .932 in his last five appearances. Tellqvist has struggled a bit more with a 2-2-1, 3.32, .885 record in his last five appearances. Frankly, this is an opponent served up as a remedy to the Caps’ woes, just as the Caps were for the Rangers Saturday night. Despite injuries, illnesses, and call-ups, this is a game the Caps should and needs to win. Getting off to a good start on the first day of the new year is largely symbolic (how many folks remember last year’s 5-2 pounding of the Caps by Atlanta on New Year’s Day?). But it sure can’t hurt after all this recent losing . . . Caps 6 – Phoenix 3.

It was a pretty good year . . .

2006 . . . What a year . . .

In the space of four days in January, Alexander Ovechkin registered his first hat trick in the NHL and then managed to score a goal while sliding on his back away from the net at which he was . . . uh, shooting. It was a memorable January – the Caps finished 5-8-2.

In February, the Caps played an abbreviated schedule due to the Olympics. But, Mike Green scored his first goal as a Capital, in a 4-1 win against Toronto. Alexander Ovechkin scored a goal by somersaulting into the rafters and banking a wrist shot off of Don Cherry’s tie knot. The Caps finished 2-4-0

March . . . the Caps saw a return to a full slate of games, although what a metamorphic rock derived out of sedimentary materials has to do with schedules for a professional sports team is a mystery. The Caps secured their only win of the season against the Pittsburgh Penguins, highlighted by a goofy goal from the stick of Ivan Majesky, who fired (“blooped” would be a more apt description) the puck from the boards near the Caps’ bench in an effort to clear the zone while killing a penalty. The puck landed near the Penguins' blue line – in full sight of Penguin goaltender Sebastien Caron – upon which Alexander Ovechkin gave the puck the evil eye, willing it to bounce out of the reach of Caron and into the net, leaving Caron embarrassed and Penguin fans wailing about how this will cost them a new arena. Brendan Witt was traded to the Nashville Predators for a boxed set of Loretta Lynn classics. Kris Beech was added as a throw-in. The Caps finished 4-6-5.

April . . . the Caps played 328 games against Carolina. Well, not that many, but it seemed like it. Alexander Ovechkin scored a goal by levitating above the ice and casting the puck into the net on a lightning bolt emitted from his eyes. Olaf Kolzig and Brent Johnson split ten decisions – Johnson won three, Kolzig won two. Caps fans immediately called for Johnson to be installed as the next season’s starter and Kolzig banished to collecting parking passes at FedEx Field. The Caps played the role of spoiler, ending Atlanta’s bid for a playoff spot in the next-to-last game of the year. Thirty eight people saw it at MCI Center. The Caps finished 5-3-2.

May . . . Caps fans huddled around their TV screens and computers to follow the latest progress. Redskins rookie camp was said to have gone well. No one killed Gregg Williams.

June . . . Alexander Ovechkin announced the Capitals’ first pick in the NHL entry draft – Nicklas Backstrom of Brynas in the Swedish Elite League. He did such a great job, he was given the responsibility of announcing the meal choice of the guys at the Caps’ draft table – Kung Pao Chicken and Polish sausage sandwiches.

July . . . The free agent signing period began, and the Caps were active – unfortunately, no one thought to charge their cell phones, and Zdeno Chara ended up in Boston. The Caps made up for lost time by signing Richard Zednik. Trevor Linden could not be reached for comment.

August . . . the club, acknowledging that the new skating facility in Ballston would not be ready for training camp, announced that camp would open in the frozen food section of the Wegman’s on Route 28 in Loudoun County. Fans attending on the first day of camp would receive coupons for Mrs. Paul’s fish sticks.

September . . . The Redskins opened camp, the Nationals’ season was winding down, the Terps were opening their ACC football season, DC United was trying to hang onto the top spot in the East in the MLS. That constituted sports news on the local front for . . . oh, yeah . . . the Caps opened camp (Wegman’s did not run out of fish sticks).

October . . . The National Hockey League season opened with a thud as the Caps served as useful props for the Rangers’ opening night win. Dozens of Caps fans attended the home opener a couple of nights later. Alexander had a hat trick. No, not that one, the other one. The Caps finished 4-3-4. Fans were planning parade routes for the Stanley Cup celebration.

November . . . was a month of firsts . . . the Caps did something in Philadelphia they hadn’t done since January 1998 – they took a team wizz on the Rocky statue. It must have worked, since the Caps also won their first game in Philly in all that time. Then, Olaf Kolzig did something he hadn’t done in his entire career. He beat the Dallas Stars . . . then he celebrated by almost losing his lunch when Jamie Heward had a new set of nostrils carved into his face by a Mike Modano skate blade. The Caps finished 6-6-2.

December . . . Alexander Ovechkin started off the month scoring a goal by stuffing the puck in Daniel Briere’s mouth and shooting him into the Buffalo Sabre net. Briere spent the next month complaining of neck pain and . . . cramps with bloating. Then, the Caps did two things they hadn’t done in more than a decade – they swept Philadelphia, and they horked up a four goal lead to the Penguins. The next night, Ovechkin scored the tying goal in the last minute of regulation against Atlanta, then won it six seconds into overtime. Then they beat the Flyers again and celebrated by driving to Philly and wizzing on the Rocky statue. Then they gave up six goals in 37 seconds (ok, it only seemed that way) to Buffalo. It was a helluva month for a club that finished 6-7-1.

And it was a helluva year for a club that is making small, but sure steps back to respectability. Alexander Ovechkin is everything he was said to be and more. Olaf Kolzig remains the cornerstone of the franchise, in and out of the locker room. Alexander Semin dazzles with his stick work, and if you blink, you’ll miss that wrister heading to the back of the net. Mike Green plays with a veteran’s sense of patience. Shaone Morrisonn is growing into the stopper that the Caps need. Matt Pettinger has given indications that his breakout year last year wasn’t a fluke. John Erskine has been a pleasant surprise. The boys in Hershey are taking up right where they left off in June with their Calder Cup win.

The future looks a lot brighter in these parts than it has in some time. 2006 was a year of progress. Here’s to 2007 being one of achievement. And pretty soon, all of us can celebrate by heading to Philly and wizzing on the Rocky statue.

Happy New Year, hockey fans.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Rangers

It’s one thing to fall to a club that is experienced in the ways of winning, as the Caps did on Friday night to the Devils. It is quite another to go toes up against a club that has played horrible hockey for the better part of the last month. But that’s what happened last night when the Caps went quietly – in the hockey way of things – to the New York Rangers, 4-1 (at least The Peerless got the score right).

It was brutal.

Petr Prucha, who last year was a darling in Manhattan, but who now seems to be more the topic of trade rumors, netted two goals. Well, gee…until last night, he’d had one goal since Veterans Day.

Darius Kasparaitis, who was given up for dead a month ago, coming off groin and shoulder injuries, and crowded out of a defensive lineup that wouldn’t scare small children, gets a goal and was a plus-three. Kasparaitis hadn’t had a plus-three game since October 13, 2005.

Karel Rachunek, who isn’t on anyone’s Norris short list, had a pair of assists and was a plus-two.

It wasn’t as if the Caps succumbed to an all-star lineup. It wasn’t as if the Rangers played particularly well. This was a game the Caps should have won.

Moral victories should be getting to be a thing of the past. The club has to find a way to steal a couple of points here and there when they aren’t fielding their best lineup. Instead, the Caps find themselves at the end of the year marching in place, a .500 team. Don’t get me wrong, that’s an improvement over where they were on December 31, 2005 (13-20-3, for those of you scoring at home), but closing 2006 on a 1-6-0 run wasn’t in the game plan. Here is what “stealing” two points here and there could have meant. If they’d stolen two games (a 3-4-0 record instead of 1-6-0), they would be 18-14-7 and tied for sixth with Ottawa. This morning, they are 11^th.

What’s the problem? Well, giving up 29 goals in seven games – only one in which fewer than four goals were allowed (not coincidentally, the only win in this stretch) – points to a problem. In spite of injuries, that just suggests a team-wide loss of focus. That seemed always to be the danger here with a young team. Between the holidays and the start of the long march through the winter, focus was something that could wander. Add to that the spate of injuries and illness, and it was a recipe for trouble. An explanation, maybe, but that should be used by no one as an excuse. If this team has designs on the playoffs, it has to find a way to weather such storms.

2006 ends with a record of 32-37-16. In 2007, fans – not to mention the club -- will be expecting better.

The Remarkable Consistency of Alexander Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin has now played 337 games in the NHL. Looking at his ten-game segments, what is striking is his remarkable scoring consistency. The breakdown, from his first ten-game segment to his most recent:


337 games (through October 31, 2009) games -- 233 goals, 210 assists, 443 points . . . Through 130 games, he was a metronome -- 13 points every ten games, like clockwork. There was a 40-game spell during which he "slumped" a bit (20-12-32). But in his next seven full ten-game segments, he was never been below 10 points. He is currently on a nine-segment streak in which he scored at least ten points.

Oh, and Alex was named a first-team all-star for the fourth time on the heels of his 2008-2009 season. He is the only player in NHL history to be named a first team all star in each of his first four seasons in the league.

updated: November 1, 2009

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Rangers, December 30th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

This is a special medical edition of The Prognosto, featuring a panel of esteemed medicos – Dr. Marcus Welby, Dr. James Kildare, Dr. Victor Ehrlich, and Dr. Ben Casey.

(They’re all dead, Peerless)

Uh, no their not, Kildare is still around somewhere, and Ehrlich it tooling around in his hybrid car.

(ok…whatever you say)

So, doctors…we have a number of Caps on the shelf with illness and injury. What do you prescribe to get them back on the ice?

Dr. Welby: “Leech”

Dr. Casey: “Welby, you always say ‘leech’”

Welby: “No, you idiot, ‘Leetch.’ The defenseman? Don’t you follow hockey, Casey?”

Dr. Kildare: “Or?”

Welby: “Or what, sonny?”

Kildare: “No, Doctor…’Orr.’ He was great when I was an intern.”

Dr. Ehrlich: “They have medicine when you were an intern?”

Kildare: “That’s not very professional…”

Casey: “Could they use a ‘pronger?’”

Welby: “you surgeons, always wanting to use fancy instruments…”

Casey: --rolls eyes—

Kildare: “maybe the problem is no Klemm”

Welby: “phlegm?”

Kildare: “No, you ossified fart, ‘Klemm’ . . . plays for the Stars”

Ehrlich: “Phaneuf”

Everyone: “gesundheit”

Well, so much for the masters of medicine, how about the game? . . . The Washington Bearitals come into the back half of yet another back-to-back on a 1-5-0 run and slipping through the standings. They dropped to tenth in the conference last evening, but could – with a win against the Rangers tonight and losses by Ottawa, the Islanders, and the Bruins – climb all the way into a tie for sixth in points in the East. Such is the crowded situation these days.

The Bearitals come into this game with the possibility of having to fill multiple slots with call-ups from Hershey. Matt Pettinger, Brian Sutherby, and Steve Eminger missed last night’s game with the Devils due to stomach flu. Chris Clark, Mike Green, and Brian Pothier played under the influence of that bug. John Erskine remains out, as do Bryan Muir and Matt Bradley with injuries. Begs the question, who does Hershey ice in a first-place showdown against Norfolk tonight?

However, the story here is the Rangers. If you haven’t been paying attention, they’ve lost seven in a row. That isn’t the half of it. In that streak, the Rangers were shutout in their last two games (2-0 to the Islanders, 1-0 last night to Ottawa), Michael Nylander was benched for the entire third period of the game against the Islanders, Jaromir Jagr has only two goals and is a -4 in the losing streak, they are 4-for-37 (10.8 percent) on the power play in their last seven, 22-for 33 (66.7 percent) in penalty killing, Brendan Shanahan has only one goal in his last ten games. If there is a light at the end of the Rangers’ tunnel, it is that goalie Henrik Lundqvist has been excellent in the two shutout losses, stopping 63 of 66 shots (95.5 percent). But even that has a down side. Since Lundqvist has played in the last three Ranger games, the second half of their own back-to-back might call for Kevin Weekes to get a start. Weekes has had some problems in this stretch of Ranger futility – 0-3-0, 4.24, .857 in four appearances.

These are two teams fumbling for a way out of recent misery. They have different problems, though. The Rangers haven’t been able to score much – 11 goals in seven games. The Bearitals haven’t been able to stop anyone – 25 goals allowed in their last six contests. So, it’s the resistible force against the moveable object tonight. Who blinks first? Well, the difference could be the level of effort and the crowd. The Caps haven’t lacked for effort in this slide, and the Ranger crowd could be in the mood for red meat – wearing blue jerseys. A fast start would do wonders for the Bearitals’ chances here, and Alexander Ovechkin likes a big stage. It could be ugly for the blueshirts, especially given that wounded Washington is served up as a remedy for their own recent woes. 2006 ends on a good note for the good guys . . .

Caps 4 – Rangers 1.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Devils

Well, The Peerless called that one, didn’t he . . . whoever scores first wins? It’s a sign of where the Caps are at the moment that scoring first would have no meaning; that a club having difficulty coming back in such situations should not only do so, but carry a two-goal lead into the final minute.

And as for the guys who were going to be the bricks and mortar of a win? They were laid up in a hotel room battling a stomach virus, according to Tarik El-Bashir’s column in this morning’s Post. Matt Pettinger, Brian Sutherby, and Steve Eminger – all of whom have been struggling lately – ended up on the shelf. Three more players -- Chris Clark, Mike Green, and Brian Pothier – were ill, but dressed. Pothier’s minutes were reduced by eight from his average for the season; Clark and Green played slightly less than normal.

All in all, it would be hard to find much fault with the Caps last night, especially with the lineup they iced:

Forwards:

Alexander Ovechkin
Dainius Zubrus
Chris Clark
Alexander Semin
Boyd Gordon
Brooks Laich
Kris Beech
Ben Clymer
Jakub Klepis
Donald Brashear
Brian Sutherby Dave Steckel
Matt Pettinger

Defense:

Brian Pothier
John Erskine Lawrence Nycholat
Bryan Muir Jamie Hunt
Steve Eminger Timo Helbling
Jamie Heward
Shaone Morrisonn
Mike Green

Goalie:

Olaf Kolzig

If there was one line that reflected the evening and had The Peerless scratching his head, it was this one . . . Brook Laich, from Lawrence Nycholat and Kris Beech. That could have been a scoring line from last spring’s Calder playoffs. And here’s one for you . . . Lawrence Nycholat registered the first two point game (1-1-2) by a defenseman in almost a month (John Erskine . . . John Erskine?? . . . December 2, vs. Buffalo). The last one before Erskine’s was October 30^th (Shaone Morrisonn vs. Calgary). Whodathunkit, eh?

But here is the nub of the matter . . . New Jersey really hasn’t played like that much a better team than the Caps this year (they came in with 43 points, the Caps 39). But they know how to win games, and they know how to take advantage of an opponent’s weaknesses, especially when that opponent has holes in its lineup. For the Caps, the effort was there – Herculean in fact -- but not the ability to finish. That comes with experience – another lesson on the road to competitiveness.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Devils, December 29th

First to score wins…

If there is one statistic that matters in the game this evening between the Caps and the New Jersey Devils, that’s the one. Why? Because both teams suck at coming from behind. Washington is 28th in the league in winning percentage when scored upon first, New Jersey 24th. If you’re worried about missing the next exciting episode of “Shark” this evening at 8:00 on CBS, don’t be. This game could be settled in the first ten minutes, thus leaving you free for an evening of exciting prime time viewing entertainment, brought to you by the same folks who made “CSI” a four-letter word.

Here’s another nugget to chew on . . . The Caps have six shorthanded goals this year (tied for 8th in the league); the Devils have given up eight shorties (tied for second most). Paging Chris Clark . . . Paging Brooks Laich . . .

And one thing you’re not likely to see . . . a Caps power play goal. First, the Devils have the fewest shorthanded situations in the league this year by a wide margin (more than 12 percent fewer than second place Tampa Bay). Second, they’re killing off 88.2 percent of those situations . . . 16 power play goals allowed this year.

The Caps are in a plum-pudding addled funk at the moment, following up a 7-1-1 run with a 1-4-0 skid. Part of the five game slide is health (Richard Zednik, Shaone Morrisonn, John Erskine, Matt Bradley, Bryan Muir), part of it is just a lack of results (Matt Pettinger: 0-0-0, -3; Brian Sutherby: 0-1-1, -2, 30.3 percent on faceoffs; Jakub Klepis: 0-0-0, -4; Brian Pothier: 0-0-0, -4; and even with a 3-3-6 line, Alex Ovechkin is -3).

More odd numbers . . .

In this five game slide, the Caps – heretofore thought of as a decent even strength team – have only five even strength goals (six power play and a shorthanded goal make up the rest of the total of 12 goals). They’ve given up 14 goals at even strength.

They’ve give up at least four goals in four of the five games.

Of the 12 goals they’ve scored, eight have come off the sticks of the top line of Ovechkin, Dainius Zubrus, and Clark; two others from Alexander Semin – the usual suspects. But the Caps have gotten scoring from virtually no one else (four goals – two from Kris Beech, one each from Bryan Muir and Jamie Heward . . . please note the utter lack of contributions from the third or fourth lines there).

Chalk things up to injuries if you like, but what the injuries have done is expose the Caps lack of depth. And, they’re just not playing well . . . for example, Matt Pettinger hasn’t scored a point in his last eight games and is -5 over that span; Jakub Klepis has no points in his last nine and is -4; Brian Sutherby hasn’t scored a goal in more than two months.

The Caps get fairly consistent production from the top line; Alexander Semin has the scorer’s streakiness but has good numbers as well. However, the Caps live and die by the contributions the other guys make at both ends of the ice. No one is expecting Brian Sutherby to become Jason Spezza, or Matt Pettinger to become Jarome Iginla, but to the extent the Caps aren’t getting consistent production from players such as these (and they’re not the only examples), they’re not getting consistent results. For the Caps to win tonight, it is as likely going to be a product of what these guys do as it is what Alexander Ovechkin or Alexander Semin – guys with bulls eyes on their backs – do.

Those are the guys to watch and the guys who will come through tonight . . .

Caps 3 – Devils 2.

A Tale of Two Decembers...

Player 1:

0-2-2, even
12:50 average ice time
3 of 12 games with >50 percent faceoff wins
15 total shots on goal in 12 games

Player 2:

0-3-3, +6 (no "minus" games)
15:30 average ice time
6 of 12 games with 50 percent or better faceoff percentage
25 total shots on goal in 12 games

Player 1...Brian Sutherby
Player 2...Boyd Gordon

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Montreal

Bad habits . . .

They kind of creep up on you, and if you don’t notice them, they can be so much harder to change. In this case, eight goals against in the first period in the past two games . . . one goal for. Last night it was two for the visiting Montreal Canadiens and none for the home team. Having to claw out of a hole – a deep hole – starting early in games is not a consistent formula for success, and this is especially so with the Caps nursing a variety of illnesses and injuries.

The first period was good, bad, and unlucky. The good was the fact that the Caps got 14 shots on goal. The bad was that only three of them came from the reconstituted first line of Alexander Ovechkin, Dainius Zubrus, and Alexander Semin (more on that to come). The unlucky was the path of the puck on the first goal for the Habs, which managed not to hit any feet or skates from the left wing boards and the stick of Guillaume Latendresse to the far side of the crease and the stick of Mathieu Dandenault for a tap-in.

The Caps experimented with a super-line of Ovechkin and Semin, centered by Zubrus last night. That is the all-eggs-in-one-basket school of offense. Trouble is, it puts so much pressure on that line to score that there is a temptation to press even harder in the offensive end at the expense of defense. The line did get a late power play goal, but they were on the ice for two goals (one being the shorthanded empty netter by Sheldon Souray in the last minute). Was the experiment a failure? No, not necessarily . . . but no other line registered a point – that’s the other side of the experiment.

There is another number here that bears noting . . . 43.7. That is the Caps’ faceoff winning percentage over the last four games (1-3-0). They’ve been on the short end of the faceoff ledger in each of those games. The Caps have been outscored 16-8 in those four games. Coincidence? Perhaps, but puck possession is a critical element in the way the game is played these days. Lose a lot of faceoffs, and you spend a lot of time chasing the puck around. And, given the Caps health problems on defense these days, that’s not a good thing.

The Caps are half-way through their eight game holiday stretch outside the Southeast Division and have two points to show for the four games they’ve played. While they are ninth in the conference (tied with Boston in points for eighth, but with fewer wins) and two points out of sixth, they also are only four points ahead of 14th place Florida. This is a critical part of the schedule, coming as it does against fellow travelers in the Eastern Conference. A back-to-back road set against the Devils and Rangers, and back home to face Phoenix and Montreal could go a long way toward determining whether the Caps are contenders in the last half of the season, or pretenders.

And answering that question might start with the matter of those first period bad habits.

The Peerless Prognosticator is BACK...ON THE AIR!!! Caps vs. Canadiens, December 27th

The Peerless Prognosticator is BACK ON THE AIR!!!

Ok, so we took a few days off to give the fat man directions, whip up some Peerless Nog, and make rather merry, as Bob Crachit put it. We returned just in time to see Brent Johnson do his bit for the waste lumber industry. Enough column inches have been expended in recounting that effort.

But tonight, it’s Le Club de Hockey Canadien. Montreal, perhaps more than even Buffalo, is the epitome of the kind of club that will succeed in the new NHL. Five-on-five, they are an ordinary team at best (25^th in 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio). But special teams? First on the power play, second in penalty killing. This is a bigger factor than the goaltending of Cristobal Huet (which is the name of a high-end glassware set, not a hockey player), who is ninth in the league in goals against average and first in save percentage. He’s 5-1-1 in his seven decisions in December. But, Montreal splits time between their goalies than most other teams. Huet has played about two-thirds of the available minutes this year, while David Aebischer gets the rest. The Peerless is inclined to think that Huet’s performance this year is surprising, but his numbers this year (2.36, .931) are not appreciably different than his statistics last year (2.20, .929).

Among the skaters, Saku Koivu remains the Hab to watch. Six goals in his last eight games, and he’s winning almost 56 percent of the draws he’s taken this year. The Chris Higgins-Koivu-Michael Ryder line has 11 goals in those last eight games, more than a third of the Montreal total. But while that group is especially dangerous, the Canadiens have scoring from 14 different skaters in the last eight games. Goals can come from unexpected places (although not from Maxim Lapierre, who despite three goals in four games, was returned to Hamilton of the NHL). Given Montreal’s special production on the power play, the man to watch here will be Sheldon Souray – third in total scoring among defensemen, first in power play goals, first in total power play scoring, tied among defenseman for game winning goals (including an overtime winner). You'd think his name was Sheldon Gonchar...

The Caps suffered what looked to be a monstrous nog-over in the first ten minutes of the game last night. But, they are 4-2-2 in the back half of back-to-backs so far this year and have won their last three of such games. Alex Ovechkin, as if he needed more attention, took over the league lead in goals last night with his 25th (in fewer games than any of his four closest pursuers) and has climbed to a tie for fourth in total scoring. In December, he is 9-12-21, +4 in 11 games (by way of inevitable comparison, Sidney Crosby is 7-16-23, +2 in 12 games). Alexander Semin is 3-5-8, +5 in his last five games. On the other side of the coin, Matt Pettinger is scoreless in his last seven games and -4 . . . Ben Clymer has had one plus game since November 4^th (the day he moved back to forward) . . . in the callup category, Jeff Schultz has acquitted himself well in his three games since being called up from Hershey – more than 18 minutes of ice time a game and -1 overall.

Montreal is 7-1-1 in their last nine. In that time their power play converted 32.5 percent of its chances (13 of 40) and killed 83.3 percent of it shorthanded situations (35 of 42) with four shorthanded goals (they lead the NHL with 11). Outscoring the opposition 17-7 in special teams situations – more than a goal a game – clearly points to the importance of special teams tonight (Montreal outscored opponents 14-13 otherwise over these nine games). More so, given that the Caps’ special teams haven’t been particularly special in their last nine games – 19.2 percent on the power play (10-of 52), 78.1 percent in penalty-killing (32 of 41). If this is a tightly called game, it favors Montreal. If the refs “let ‘em play,” the Caps would appear to have the advantage. Hey, the gift giving season is over . . .

Caps 4 – Canadiens 2.

The Morning After . . . Too Much Egg Nog, Boys? Caps vs. Sabres

Team record…most goals allowed, first period

League record…third fastest six goals allowed to start a game

And still, in spite of Brent Johnson allowing four goals on six shots, in spite of Olaf Kolzig allowing goals on two of the first three shots he faced, the club did not yield.

There is much to complain about in the Caps’ 6-3 loss to Buffalo last night, and that will be chronicled elsewhere. But for the last 49 minutes of the game, the Caps gave at least as well as they got. Alex Ovechkin dealt with perhaps the first sustained angry booing of his career – not the garden variety opposing player sort – and came out of things with a goal, a couple of hits, and a more manly response to his being speared by Daniel Briere than the latter’s incessant whining about the hit he took almost four weeks ago at the hands of Ovechkin. The Peerless wouldn’t be surprised if Briere finds his wallet a bit lighter for his effort, although no suspension is merited (remember, Ryan Whitney got $1,500 and no suspension for a spear that netted him five(spearing)-five(fighting, when Brian Willsie jumped in)-game).

Clearly, the Caps weren’t ready from the drop of the puck, but there were some decent efforts in the game . . .

- Lawrence Nycholat assisted on Ovechkin’s goal and was a +1 for the night in 18+ minutes of ice time.

- Alexander Semin continued to skate as if on a mission – he had seven shots and was a +1 himself.

- Chris Clark making it interesting with 17 minutes still left in the third with a shorthanded goal

If there is a problem here, it is in the goaltender rotation being messed up. That Brent Johnson lasted less than eight minutes meant that Kolzig got more than two periods last night when he otherwise would have been rested for a contest against the wholly underappreciated (third in points in the East) Montreal Canadiesn this evening. There is merit, perhaps, in putting Johnson right back on the horse, but if Kolzig gets the nod, then one would have to think Johnson gets the start against the Devils on Friday with Kolzig starting on Saturday in Madison Square Garden against the Rangers. It isn’t bad enough that the skating lineup is a patchwork, but the goalie situation isn’t exactly where the coaching staff might have liked it.

But again, that’s not a problem, it’s an opportunity. Lawrence Nycholat and Jeff Schultz are getting valuable ice time that could pay dividends in Hershey later in the year (or in Washington, for that matter). Schultz, in fact, logged more than six shorthanded minutes last night. He was on the ice for four Sabre goals, but that’s part of the learning process, too.

As bad as the Caps played (and as unlucky as they were), it’s only one loss. They don’t get negative points for allowing six goals in a period. The key is how they respond tonight. They just need to remember that the puck drops at 7:35 (note the unusual time), not 8:30.

ENOUGH ALREADY!!!

Thanks to a poster over on the Caps official discussion boards, The Peerless came across these musings from the Toronto Star.

All The Peerless can say is, ENOUGH ALREADY!!!"

Here's the money quote:

"Imagine, for example, if [Sidney] Crosby was a Chicago Blackhawk and [Alex] Ovechkin a member of the Los Angeles Kings.

"Or if Ovechkin was in Philly and Crosby was a Ranger.

"Now you'd have something cooking."

OK, Mr. Cox, here's what I'd imagine . . .

If Crosby was a Blackhawk, he'd be playing for the worst franchise in the league, and no amount of '87' jersey sales would change that fact. The Blackhawks would never seriously compete for a Stanley Cup. They might make the playoffs from time to time, but Bill Wirtz would never make the last investments he would have to make to get a Cup for the Windy City. Crosby would be sentenced to a career that would be haunted by the title, "best player never to win a Cup."

If Ovechkin was a King, he's be dressed in the worst uniform in the league playing for a club at least as boring, by its own historical standard, as the Caps. A club with no particular history of its own to speak of (sorry, Wayne Gretzky wrote his history in Edmonton), it has the personality of the Clippers of the NBA, which is to say, none. This is a club that tried a personality infusion through the signing of Jeremy Roenick, for heaven's sake.

If Ovechkin was a Flyer . . . well, so what? Since the 1974-75 season -- the last time the Flyers won the Cup -- what Flyer has been a poster boy for the league? Eric Lindros? Ron Hextall? please... The Flyers draw well -- they will do so without Ovechkin -- but do they make fans across North America think, "hockey?" Not lately, and Ovechkin doesn't make them a playoff team in the next couple of years, either, even if you dropped him smack in the middle of their current lineup.

If Crosby was a Ranger . . . he'd compete with Derek Jeter and the Jints and the soap opera that is the New York Knicks . . . not to mention the possibility of the Brooklyn Nets . . . for space on the back page of the tabloids. Would he make a bigger impact than Jaromir Jagr? Perhaps, in time, but . . . so? And, does he make the Rangers a bona fide contender? In this case, he probably does (providing Jagr is still there...if not, no).

But let's get to the bottom line....would these imaginings improve the NHL's television ratings? National TV lineups are a product of reputation, and not generally that of players. Winning, either by tradition or recently, means something. Buffalo has eight appearances on Versus this year . . . Detroit, the Rangers, and Colorado have seven (so does Pittsburgh -- the Crosby Effect -- but then again, so does Boston, which I can't figure out). Washington, with one of those players noted in this article, have two (one against Crosby). That's not a product of love -- real or perceived -- but wins and losses, which have been a problem in these parts recently.

There is nothing particularly special about Colorado as a hockey hotbed. They've had good college teams, but no one is going to confuse Denver with Minneapolis as a hockey haven. The Avalanche have done it with sustained excellence (of course, now we'll see what happens that they've taken a step backward on the ice -- they're 13th in attendance at the moment). The team sucked in Quebec, but the addition of Patrick Roy and the development of Joe Sakic were crucial to the success they finally achieved. And, attendance (not to mention TV attention) followed suit. The same might yet hold true for Ovechkin in Washington and Crosby in (one hopes) Pittsburgh. As for the cities mentioned, I'm not seeing exactly what the benefit of having either player displaying their skills in those cities means overall to those cities or the league.

Frankly, this "Ovechkin and Crosby in unloving cities" nonsense has grown past tiresome. It's reached into the realm of silly envy, which reveals itself in Cox' own comment at the end of his article . . .


"The [Toronto] Maple Leafs will get a close look at both players over the next six days, Ovechkin tonight and then Crosby and the Pens next Friday.

"That'll give Leaf fans their chance to daydream what it would be like to have either in a blue-and-white uniform."

Enough already...

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Devils

Well, now we’re going to see why it is that the Caps aren’t at all a sure thing to make the playoffs this year . . .

Depth.

The Caps lost a game last night to a good, if not great Devils team – the product of the play of a great, not just good goaltender, Martin Brodeur. But that was incidental to the bigger picture – as Tarik El-Bashir reports in this morning’s Post, the Caps are without the services of Matt Bradley (broken finger), Richard Zednik (abdominal surgery), Bryan Muir (broken foot), John Erskine (broken foot), and Shaone Morrisonn (flu). All except perhaps Morrisonn will be out for a stretch of games.

A young team that loses almost a third of its starting skaters might not be expected to maintain for any significant length of time the performance level they’ve enjoyed (in this case, the Caps are still the 8-seed in the Eastern Conference this morning). Holes get filled by the likes of Alexandre Giroux (three NHL games of experience) and Jeff Schultz (first NHL game last night). Another call-up from Hershey is expected before the Caps take the ice against Toronto tonight. One can speak of this as an opportunity for others to step up (it is) and a chance to see a couple of kids playing well at Hershey on the bigger stage (it is), but it makes a young team younger and an inexperienced team in the ways of winning at this level more so.

The Caps’ problems were evident last night. The Devils executed their game plan – take advantage of the power play (2-for-4), shot down the Caps’ power play (0-for-4), make things tough for Alex Ovechkin (five shots, but not a large factor for most of the game).

On the other hand, the Caps put forth a credible effort and had some chances, especially early in the contest, but it was a case of having too few bullets in the gun to compete at the same level with a veteran team such as the Devils.

This is a dangerous part of the schedule for the Caps coming up. From now until their next division game (Atlanta, January 9), the Caps have only one game against a team not competing for a playoff spot (Phoenix). They start in Toronto tonight, then face off with Buffalo, Montreal, the Devils once more, the Rangers, that Phoenix game on New Year’s Day, and Montreal again, before returning to division play. Doing it with a somewhat depleted team makes the task just that much harder. The Caps have 37 points in 34 games. If they take the ice against Atlanta on January 9^th with, say, 44 points in 41 games, they might be said to have weathered a storm . . .

. . . provided they incur no other major injuries.

That’ll do it for The Peerless until next week. Here’s hoping you and yours enjoy a very Merry Christmas, a Happy Hanukkah, a joyous Kwanzaa, and many hours of happy hockey thoughts . . .

“He became as good a friend, as good a master, and as good a man, as the good old city knew, or any other good old city, town, or borough, in the good old world. Some people laughed to see the alteration in him, but he let them laugh, and little heeded them; for he was wise enough to know that nothing ever happened on this globe, for good, at which some people did not have their fill of laughter in the outset; and knowing that such as these would be blind anyway, he thought it quite as well that they should wrinkle up their eyes in grins, as have the malady in less attractive forms. His own heart laughed: and that was quite enough for him.

“He had no further intercourse with Spirits, but lived upon the Total Abstinence Principle, ever afterwards; and it was always said of him, that he knew how to keep Christmas well, if any man alive possessed the knowledge. May that be truly said of us, and all of us! And so, as Tiny Tim observed, God Bless Us, Every One!”

-- Charles Dickens, “A Christmas Carol,” December 1843

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Devils, December 22nd

Well, here we are – the last home game before that jolly old elf . . . no, not Ted Leonsis . . . makes his way around the globe bestowing presents and good cheer among all the peoples of the Earth. But before St. Nick fires up the sleigh and Rudolph flips on the high beams, it’s “Shades Night” in DC. For the uninformed, this is a tribute to the fashion sense of Martin Brodeur, who deems it inappropriate for young men on skates to be wearing visors of the mirrored sort, an opinion he seems to have prevailed upon the league to adopt. So, Capitals fans are being invited by enterprising members of the official discussion boards to don their own brand of shades . . . be they the practical sort, the intimidating sort, or just an effort to adopt that “Percussionist, Foster Grant” look that makes ladies swoon.

But it’s the holiday season, and it puts The Peerless in mind of a poem . . .

Twas the night before Christmas, when all ‘round the rink
Not a creature was stirring, you could hear yourself think.
The stockings were hung by the lockers with care,
In hopes that St Nicholas soon would be there.

The Cappies were nestled all snug in their beds,
While visions of Stanley Cups danced in their heads.
And Glen in some warmups, and wearing a cap,
Had just settled their brains for a long winter’s nap.

When out on the ice there arose such a clatter,
I sprang from the bed to see what was the matter.
Away to the tunnel I flew like a flash,
Knocked over some sticks and fell with a crash.

The lights on the ice of the new sheet of ice
Gave the lustre of mid-day, it was oh, so nice.
When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,
But a miniature sleigh, and eight tiny reindeer.

With a little old driver, so lively and quick,
I knew in a moment it must be St Nick.
More rapid than eagles his coursers they came,
And he whistled, and shouted, and called them by name!

"Now Dainius! now, Bryan! now, Jakub and Olie!
On, Alex! On, Greenie! on, Clarkie and Johnnie!
To the top of the glass! to the top of the stands!
Now dash away! Dash away! Dash away all!"

As players that before the wild Hurricanes fly,
When they meet with an obstacle, mount to the sky.
So up to the house-top the coursers they flew,
With the sleigh full of Toys, and St Nicholas too.

And then, in a twinkling, I heard on the slate
The prancing and pawing of each little skate.
As I drew in my head, and was turning around,
Down the stairs St Nicholas came with a bound.

He was dressed all in fur, from his head to his foot,
And his clothes were all tarnished with ashes and soot.
A bundle of Toys he had flung on his back,
And he looked like a peddler, just opening his pack.

His eyes-how they twinkled! his dimples how merry!
His cheeks were like roses, his nose like a cherry!
His droll little mouth was drawn up like a bow,
And the beard of his chin was as white as the snow.

The stump of a pipe he held tight in his teeth,
And the smoke it encircled his head like a wreath.
He had a broad face and a little round belly,
That shook when he laughed, like a bowlful of jelly!

He was chubby and plump, a right jolly old elf,
And I laughed when I saw him, in spite of myself!
A wink of his eye and a twist of his head,
Soon gave me to know I had nothing to dread.

He spoke not a word, but went straight to his work,
And filled all the stockings, then turned with a jerk.
And laying his finger aside of his nose,
And giving a nod, up the stairs he rose!

He sprang to his sleigh, to his team gave a whistle,
And away they all flew like the down of a thistle.
But I heard him exclaim, ‘ere he drove out of sight,
"Happy Christmas to all, and to all a good-night!"

Tonight, the Caps face an old and familiar foe. The names change, but the Devils are what they are – a club that will score enough to win but win by choking the life out of any opponent with the aim of making the evening a 60-minutes snooze fest. New Jersey is 26^th in scoring (the Caps 4^th), sixth in defense (the Caps 23^rd). You could call this a contest of the irresistible force and the immovable object. What New Jersey is, is opportunistic. In The Peerless Index of Specialty Skill, the Devils – ranked fourth in penalty killing and seventh in power play efficiency, for a score of 11 – are outranked only by Montreal (1^st and 2^nd, for a score of 3) among the thirty NHL teams. The Caps – with a score of 32 – would prefer to keep this a 5-on-5 game, where the Devils are rather ordinary. Actually, ordinary doesn’t really describe it. Uncharacteristically, the Devils have only two players on the plus side of the plus-minus ledger – Zach Parise and Travis Zajac. Patrik Elias might lead the club in scoring (30 points), but he’s also a -14 in doing it. Paul Martin is a -10, Brian Rafalski is a -8. And, while the Devils do hold a two-point lead on the Caps, it hasn’t been because of their stellar road play . . . they are 7-9-1 when playing the role of visitor. Trouble is, the Caps haven’t been an especially good home team at 8-7-3, either. The rock – literally – upon which this club is built is goalie Martin Brodeur. His 2.19 and .920 numbers, not to mention his having played in 31 of Jersey’s 33 games this year, are slightly better than his career averages (2.21, .912). His 28-10-4 record against Washington for his career testifies to his consistent high level of play.

The Caps come off a disappointing loss to Tampa Bay, but encouraging in one respect. Despite playing the first 40 minutes as if the game had no more importance than a beer league skate around, they made things very difficult for the Lightning in the last 20 minutes, almost overcoming a three-goal deficit in the last ten minutes. If the lesson was learned that you just can’t throw your sticks out there and hope to win – especially against a club with a Stanley Cup pedigree – then it will have been a useful exercise. But one of the difficulties at this time of year is focus. Players are people, too, with their own give and take, and push and pull away from the rink. Add to that the fact that the Caps are starting a run against non-divisional opponents, and the potential exists for the boys to lose some focus. That would be deadly against this team, which is as disciplined (well, usually) as any in the league.

Oddly, the Caps might be the club of superior skill, specifically with respect to offense. They have scored 20 more goals than has New Jersey. But the Devils have yielded 30 fewer goals than have the Caps, and they have usually found a way to score the odd goal at the opportune time against the Caps (witness Olaf Kolzig – 2.40, .925 career against New Jersey, but only 14-14-3). Not tonight . . . The Caps give their fans a nice little present with which to head into the holiday . . .

Caps 3 – Devils 1.

Just a thought . . .

Jaromir Jagr . . . average ice time per game . . . 22:38
Straka . . . 21:04
Shanahan . . . 20:48
Nylander . . . 20:47

Average age . . . 35 years, three months.

Rangers . . . dead team walkin'

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Lightning

Well, The Peerless didn't get to see much of last night's 5-4 loss to the Lightning, but we do have some thoughts on what transpired . . .

- Alexander Ovechkin extended his scoring streak to eight games. That's not the half of it. He's registered points in 11 of his last 12 games, and 26 of 33 games overall. While he doesn't have the splashy six-point game anywhere on his resume, he is 7-11-18 in this latest scoring streak (compared to 6-13-19 over a comparable stretch by Mr. Media Darling in Pittsburgh).

- When I saw the first half dozen minutes of the game, I was reminded by a quote attributed to Herb Brooks . . . "you guys don't have enough talent to win on talent alone." The Caps win through hard work, and there wasn't a lot of it early.

- Dainius Zubrus...almost 21 minutes...no shots. I'm guessing he's still under the weather.

- Some losses are bad...the Pittsburgh loss was "bad." Some losses are not so bad. This one was not so bad...the Caps came back to almost steal a point (or two), and they got a lesson in humility. Respect your opponent (hey, that Stanley Cup is not that far in the Lightning's past) and respect what got you on that 7-1-1 run.

- This is the start of the dead zone of the schedule; eight games coming up against non-divisional opponents snaking through the holiday calendar. The next lesson for the boys -- maintaining focus.

- Last year after 33 games: 12-19-2 (26 points). This year: 15-11-7 (37 points). The Caps didn't get their 15th win last year until their 44th game, January 16th, in Phoenix (something about a "goal" in that game).

- Odd number of the night: 0:00. That's how much specialty teams time Mike Green got, both power play and penalty kill. He was the only defenseman to get no time killing penalties.

- Odd number of the night II: 4. That's how many hits led the Caps last night, registered by...Kris Beech? (ok, Ovechkin had four, too, but he got his in seven additional minutes of play).

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR! -- December 19th, Caps vs. Lightning

All right you Chipmunks! Ready to sing your song?
I'll say we are!
Yeah!
Let's sing it now!
Okay, Dainius?
Okay!
Okay, Chris?
Okay!
Okay, Alex? Alex? ALEX!
OKAY!!!

Christmas, Christmas time is near,
Time for toys and time for cheer,
We've been good, but we can't last
Hurry Christmas, hurry fast,
Want a plane or just a truck,
Me, I want to shoot the puck,
We can hardly stand the wait,
Please Christmas, don't be late.

Okay fellas, get ready.
That was very good, Dainius.
Naturally.
Very good Chris.
Ahkhkhkh.
Ah, Alex, you were a little flat, watch it.
Ah, Alex? Alex. ALEX!
OKAY!!!

Want a plane or just a truck,
I still want to shoot the puck,
We can hardly stand the wait,
Please Christmas, don't be late.
We can hardly stand the wait,
Please Christmas, don't be late.

Very good, boys.
Let's sing it again!
Yeah, let's sing it again!
No, That's enough, let's not overdo it.
What do you mean not overdo it?
Overdo it?
We want to sing it again!
Now wait a minute, boys ...
Why can't we sing it again?
Alex, cut that out...Chris, just a minute.
Dainius will you cut that out? Boys...

As for the game . . .

Tampa Bay visits Verizon Center in the midst of a hideous 1-7-1 stretch in their last nine games – starting with a 5-2 loss to the Caps—getting outscored 33-27. The “27” in there is somewhat deceptive, since eight of those goals were scored in their only win in this run, an 8-0 whitewash of Atlanta. One might think special teams are a problem here, and they are in an odd sort of way. Tampa Bay is 6-for-53 on the power play over these nine games (11.3 percent), which is not the stuff of a team playing well. The penalty kill has been comparatively average – 24-of-29 shorthanded situations killed off (82.8 percent). But for Tampa Bay, it is a story of opportunities squandered; having had 24 more opportunities than their opponents over the last nine games and tallying only one more power play goal.

Over the last nine games, the Lightning have received the usual production from the usual suspects, if not more – Vincent Lecavalier is 8-7-15, Martin St. Louis is 5-8-13, and Brad Richards is 4-7-11. That’s 17-22-39 for the big three. But here is the telling number. For all that production on offense, those three are a combined -9.

Goaltending remains an issue for this club. Johan Holmqvist was given an opportunity and won eight of his first 11 decisions. Then, he woke up and discovered that this was the National Hockey League and starting with the last game against Washington, has since gone 0-3-0, 6.41, .756. Most goalies could put up those kinds of stats wearing their mask backwards on their heads. Marc Denis has hardly been better. He’s 1-4-1 in his last seven games (including mop-up duty in the Washington game), 2.80, .878. Even this is deceptive – throw out his shutout win over Atlanta, and those numbers are 0-4-1, 3.32, .858

Overall, these are two similar teams. Washington is seventh in scoring, Tampa Bay eighth. Tampa Bay is 22nd in goals-per-game allowed, Washington 23rd. Washington is 19th on the power play, Tampa Bay 21st. If there is a major difference, it is in penalty killing. The Caps are not among the best in this regard – 13th overall – but Tampa Bay is dead last in this statistic, killing barely three of every four this season (75.7 percent).

But the Caps are headed in the other direction. They are 7-1-1 in their last nine (starting with the win over the Lightning, a nice mirror image of Tampa’s recent experience), outscoring their opponents 39-27. The Caps have been led in scoring by Alexander Ovechkin (7-11-18), Alexander Semin (6-4-10), and Chris Clark (7-3-10) in these nine games. But the difference here is that this “big three” is a combined +7 over this stretch.

The Caps’ goaltending, while not spectacular over this stretch, has certainly looked inspired compared to the Lighting. Olaf Kolzig is 5-1-1 in this stretch, 3.11, .911. Brent Johnson is 2-0-0, 2.51, .924 in a relief role.

What is remarkable about this stretch of games is the Pittsburgh game. What could have been a devastating blow to a young team – losing after posting a four-goal lead – looks more an more like just a speed bump, a galvanizing sort of experience. It might be soon to call the Caps a “good” team, but it’s getting harder and harder to resist that description.

At the start of the year, this would be the kind of game of which it could be said that the Caps could win. Right now, the “could” must be changed to “should.” The opponent is in the midst of a desperate stretch of poor luck, the kind the Caps need to put down early and keep down. Tampa is always a dangerous club offensively. But their defensive and goaltending problems play to the Caps’ recent strengths. That points to a Caps win . . .

Caps 5 – Lightning 2.