The Peerless Thinks Out Loud on Trades

Well, it's over. The great philosopher Donald Rumsfeld once opined that, "as you know, you have to go to war with the Army you have, not the Army you want." Well, this is the hockey team we have. Zednik out...Nycholat out...Helbling out...Zubrus out. Andy Hedlund in...Jiri Novotny in...and a few picks.

Fans will wail and knash teeth . . . "why, oh why McPhee, did you not get us a real live player?! Where is our center? Where is our defenseman?" Fans need to look past the end of February. You take advantage of the opportunities provided and the nature of the market in which you're dealing. The trade deadline is about buyers who want a proven asset to get them over the hump, while sellers are looking to move assets to stockpile picks and prospects from those teams willing to give up a part of their future for a present value return. Folks, the summer will be about finding that higher-end center or defenseman via trade or free agency. This wasn't the market for that.

Now, on to the trades:

OUT: Richard Zednik to NY Islanders
IN: 2007 second round pick

Right now, that pick looks to fall into the 40th-45th pick overall range. We've beaten to death the fact that the Caps do not have on their roster but one pick past the first round of their own picks over the last decade. On paper, this is a fine deal, a steal in fact -- Zednik should not have commanded a pick this high, and where he cost a third to Montreal he brought a second back -- but if the Caps are now a "build through the draft" team, they have to draft well, and that includes this pick. Trouble is, the likely yield won't make itself known until 2010 or so, at the earliest.

OUT: Lawrence Nycholat to Ottawa
IN: Andy Hedlund, 6th round pick (2007)

Well, this seems to have be the premonition of the Zubrus trade that would be made later. Hedlund is the defenseman that permitted the Caps to include Helbling in that later deal. Not that Helbling was key to that deal, but it the kind of attention to detail -- getting a depth defenseman for Hershey in advance of moving another -- that one might expect from George McPhee. Since Nycholat was almost certainly never going to play again for Hershey this year, given the waiver environment, the Caps literally got something for nothing (that is not a disparagement of Nycholat, for his fans reading this...The Peerless hopes he has a successful run in Ottawa). As for the sixth round pick coming back -- Kyle Clark, Zbynek Novak, Marian Havel...we won't hold our breath.

OUT: Jamie Heward to Los Angeles
IN: 5th round pick (2008, conditional)

This one is perplexing until you look at the log jam on the blue line: Heward, Eminger, Erskine, Pothier, Jurcina, Morrisonn, Schultz, Muir...and Green down there in Hershey. Heward would be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year and likely did not fit into the 2007/2008 plans. But there is the distant rumble of thunder with this trade. There is still a log jam at the position, even if one does not expect Bryan Muir to come back. If one expects the Caps to try to add a veteran defenseman, one of these guys very well might not be a Cap come next training camp (and yeah, this is part of the "we'll get to that" that we're getting to).

OUT: Dainius Zubrus, Timo Helbling to Buffalo
IN: Jiri Novotny, 1st round pick (2007)

This is an interesting deal on several levels, not least with respect to its aftermath. We'll get to that. As for the deal itself, Novotny is now the early favorite to start next year as the second line center . . . maybe (that's part of the "we'll get to that," too). Novotny led the Buffalo AHL affiliate Rochester Americans in scoring last year (17-37-54 in 66 games. Ten of his 17 goals were power play tallies). He was 6-7-13 in 50 games this season with the big club, but hasn't scored a goal since December 9th (23 games). As for the first round draft pick, that could be a trading asset. Right now, the Caps own what would be the 6th and 29th picks in the first round in what is thought to be a middling draft. If the Caps were inclined to trade a pick for a player, a sixth overall in this draft might not be enough to get anyone to bite. Add another first round pick?...

OK, let's get to the "let's get to that" with respect to the aftermath. First, the comments by George McPhee after the deal was made were, to The Peerless, of the "read between the lines" variety. He was quick to commend Zubrus and his agent for being professional in the negotiations, for liking the way he dealt with the situation since negotiations began in November, and was generally effusive in his praise of Zubrus. It had all the tone of "keep us in mind in July." Trouble is, I think Zubrus just lost $1.5 million or so. He was not an especially productive scorer before being matched with Alex Ovechkin, and it appears more than a mere possibility that a return to that disappointing production will manifest itself once more. That will cost him -- you don't get top line dollars or term for what might end up being third line production, which was his history before the last couple of years. He might already have seen the best offer he's going to get.

Second, this move telegraphs the Capitals' thinking leading into the off season. Having Novotny and Backstrom as the top two centers is a stretch. One will take about 80 games of NHL experience into camp next fall; the other will be a rookie in his first year in North America. The Capitals have to add a free agent center and almost certainly one who can slide into the top line, giving Backstrom and Novotny time to grow into their roles (perhaps Novotny getting time on the right side). If the Caps fill that need -- with a center who is a center (perhaps by dangling a defenseman or looking to go the free agency route), replacing a winger conversion better suited for second or third line duty (who can't be entirely ruled out from coming back), and still have a draft pick to use or trade as a result of this trade -- the Caps not only will have a major plus out of this deal, it could be seen in retrospect as a defining moment in the rebuild.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Panthers, February 27th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

A special Deadline Day edition of the prognosto . . .

At this writing the Caps have dealt Richard Zednik to the Islanders for a 2007 second round pick and Lawrence Nycholat to Ottawa for a 2007 sixth round pick and defenseman Andy Hedlund, who looks thrilled to be a Cap.

By the time the Caps take the ice against Florida this evening, the club might have said its farewells to Dainius Zubrus and Jamie Heward as well. It promises to be a busy day, or not.

As for tonight’s opponent, the Florida Panthers are what begin and end the month for the Caps. Since losing to the Panthers on February 1^st by a 6-3 margin, the Panthers have been treading water, going 4-3-3. While the Panthers have outscored opponents by a thin 27-25 margin over those ten games, they have had problems on special teams . . .

- fewer power play opportunities than opponents: 41 for, 53 against

- fewer power play goals: 5 for, 12 against

- lower power play conversion rate: 12.2 percent for, 22.6 percent against (77.4 percent penalty kill)

More than one-fourth of the goal scoring has come from a single player in this stretch, but it’s not who you might think. Olli Jokinen has been held comparatively quiet at 3-5-8, +2 over the last ten games. Nathan Horton, though, has been on quite a streak. He is 7-4-11, +3 over these last ten games. The Peerless wonders if a new Panther line is going to be formed.

If the Panthers have been treading water, the Caps have been thrashing in the deep end of the pool. They are 3-5-3 since last they saw the Panthers, and only a 4-2 win against the Devils last Saturday can qualify as a “quality” win. It is a team in disarray at the moment – Alex Ovechkin is 2-2-4, -4 in 11 games since the last meeting against the Panthers, Alexander Semin was benched in his last game for lackadaisical play (he’s 3-2-5, over the same stretch), Chris Clark was injured (shoulder) in the San Jose contest (he was 2-1-3, -4 in this stretch up to that point), and Dainius Zubrus has “trade me” stenciled to his forehead (2-3-5, -5). So much for the “big four.”

If there has been a bright spot, it’s been the play of goalie Brent Johnson in relief of the injured Olaf Kolzig. He has a 1-3-2 record since taking over the top spot, but he is also 2.61, .911 in those games. That the Caps have scored only 24 goals in the 11 games since playing Florida (only 15 in six games since Johnson took over) goes a long way to explaining the win-loss record. So does special teams play . . . four power play goals in 39 chances (10.3 percent) and giving up 12 in 48 shorthanded situations (75.0 percent penalty kill) isn’t a recipe for winning.

All of that said, The Peerless thinks this game will be ugly. Re-e-e-e-eal ugly. And, bad as the special teams have been for both teams, none of them will be a factor. Brent Johnson will be . . .

Caps 1 – Panthers 0.

The Velocity of Trades

In economics, the term “velocity” refers to the rate at which money changes hands in an economy. Let’s apply a variation of that to sports – specifically, trades. How can one trade’s velocity – the number of exchanges that trade influences in sequence to arrive at a result far down the road that is not at first glance at all related -- impact a club?

Let’s look at one trade in 1982. You’ve probably heard of it. On September 9 of that year, the Caps traded Rick Green and Ryan Walter to the Montreal Canadiens for Brian Englblom, Doug Jarvis, Craig Laughlin, and Rod Langway. Langway went on to become a Hall of Fame defenseman, but he is not what concerns us about this trade. Brian Engblom does . . .

On October 18, 1983, Engblom was traded to Los Angeles with Ken Houston for defenseman Larry Murphy. Murphy, who would later become an object of derision for Caps fans, put in six solid seasons with the club before his role in this adventure unfolded . . .

On March 7, 1989, Murphy was traded with Mike Gartner to Minnesota for Dino Ciccarelli and Bob Rouse. Rouse would be sent to with Peter Zezel to Toronto for Al Iafrate, which is a fork in this road we’ll come back to later. Meanwhile, Ciccarelli quickly become a fan favorite, spending parts of four seasons with the club before his moment would come . . .

On June 20, 1992, Ciccarelli was traded to Detroit for Kevin Miller. Miller – of the famous East Lansing Millers (that’s another story for another time) – was probably the least heralded of that family to make it to the NHL. Certainly his footprint in Caps history is not very deep . . . 10 whole games worth . . .

On November 2, 1992, Miller was sent off to St. Louis for Paul Cavallini. Cavallini was actually making his second stop with the Caps, having been drafted by the club in 1984 (he was sent to St. Louis in a totally forgettable trade – for a draft pick that became Wade Bartley). This time, Cavallini would last one season before he exited the stage . . .

On June 26, 1993, Cavallini was sent to Dallas for Enrico Ciccone. Ciccone spent 46 games with the Caps, during which he was on a first name basis with most of the off-ice officials manning the league’s penalty boxes. It was a short stay, but it would lead to the climax of our journey . . .

On March 31, 1994, Ciccone – with the Caps third round draft pick for 1994 and a conditional draft pick – was sent to Tampa Bay for Joe Reekie. Reekie would spend parts of nine seasons with the Caps, serving as “the steady guy” on his pairings, permitting guys like Sergei Gonchar to pile up some fine offensive numbers from the blue line.

Back to Bob Rouse . . . as we noted, he was sent to Toronto with Peter Zezel for Al Iafrate. Iafrate – the sort of character that defines the word “character” in hockey – spent four seasons in Washington before being traded to Boston for Joe Juneau on March 21, 1994. Caps fans will remember Juneau as the guy who scored the game and series-deciding goal against Buffalo in 1998 that sent the Caps to their first – and to date, only – Stanley Cup final.

As we ponder the big deals about to unfold in the next 24 hours, it might pay to think about the “throw-ins” in some of these deals and the road that leads from Brian Engblom.

Let's Make a Deal!

OK, Monty . . . I'll ta-a-a-a-a-ke . . . door number-r-r-r-r-r . . . three-no-one-no-two-no . . . oh, this is so hard!

Well, we’re down to the nub of it. The trading deadline is fast approaching, and the rumors will be coming fast and furious up to the 3:00 pm (Eastern) Tuesday deadline. Who for the Caps has a “trade me” sign pasted to his back?

Richard Zednik (32 games, 6-12-18, -4). Zednik will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season, one marred by injury. Instead of manning the right side of the first or second line, as projected last fall, he is trying merely to rehabilitate his season as the schedule winds to the trading deadline. At this point, it seems a virtual certainty he will be dealt. The likely return?...a third or fourth round pick.

Dainius Zubrus (60 games, 20-32-52, -16). Another unrestricted at year-end, the sticking point here has been his agreeing to terms with the club on an extension. The scenario is unfolding as the classic “get something for him before he walks.” A player who can play any forward position and in any situation has value, but Caps fans might overvalue him based on the “Ovechkin effect” (he has a career best in goals, assists, and points last year, and is on a pace to set new career bests in each this year). This could be one of those deals that will be talked about by Caps fans for some time to come. It really is a critical deal in that the return will be expected to fill a hole in the short term. The Peerless doubts Atlanta is offering up Boris Valabik and a draft pick (don’t laugh . . . it’s no more wacky than any other deal they’ve made so far), but we’ll make a prognostication in the spirit of Don Waddell . . . watch that first rounder Montreal secured from San Jose for Craig Rivet. That, and Andrei Kostitsyn, will be coming south for Zubrus and perhaps a mid-round pick.

Jamie Heward (52 games, 4-11-15, +3). Heward had a slow re-start after sustaining a gruesome skate-blade injury against Dallas on November 30. In the first 15 games he played upon his return, he was 1-1-2, -4. In his last 16 games, he is 1-6-7, +5. Not Gonchar-esque, but it might be enough to return a fourth round pick.

Ben Clymer (55 games, 7-10-17, -14). Clymer had had a difficult year, even by the standards of a young, struggling team. Starting on defense – and experiment that ended after a dozen games – he dug himself into a hole and never really recovered to the level of performance he displayed last season. That the Caps have an abundance of 3^rd/4^th line types of forward, plus a $983,000 cap hit for Clymer over the next two seasons, makes him expendable. There is a rumor (ok, it’s Bruce Garrioch – Ottawa’s answer to Larry Brooks) that the Penguins are interested. If he brings back more than a fifth round pick, it would be a surprise, and that’s unfortunate. Clymer is one of those guys who has done all that’s been asked of him and given an honest effort each night. One wishes the year could have gone better for him, and if he isn’t moved, that this year is but a blip on the career radar.

Steve Eminger (53 games, 1-12-13, -7). He’s been a healthy scratch since playing against the Rangers on February 10^th (six games), and the speculation is that he was being held out in anticipation of a trade. The Peerless doesn’t buy that argument. Rather, The Peerless thinks he was sat down to showcase Jamie Heward. Even with Mike Green returned to Hershey, the return of John Erskine to the lineup meant that someone had to sit, and the guy you sit isn’t the one you’re showcasing for purposes of shopping. In fact, sitting him would likely have depressed his value. He’s not going anywhere.

Kris Beech (45 games, 6-14-20, -5). It would appear unlikely that he will be moved at the deadline. There just would not appear to be a market for him.

Brian Sutherby (60 games, 5-9-14, -2). He’s had a disappointing year offensively, but he’s only -2 on this club (a 15 point improvement on last year). Was last year’s 14-goal season a fluke? This year has been hard to explain. This is the last year on his current deal, which might complicate the matter of whether to move him. The Peerless’ magic 8-ball says he stays.

The Caps will be sellers, but The Peerless suspects they will be picky sellers. There is no obvious pressure to make a deal, although there would be the "move him or lose him" thinking attached to Zednik and Zubrus. Caps fans might look at the deals Atlanta made and think -- gee, maybe Pittsburgh will send Jordan Staal for Zednik. Let's not get carried away with other folks' wackiness.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Devils II

-- Comcast Cable feed dark --









Laich scores goal...









-- Comcast feed goes dark again --





skating back and forth...





-- dark again...



I hear the Caps lost. Thanks, Comcast. I guess I'll still get that bill on time, though.

Insanity, thy name is "Waddell"

First, the Thrashers give up a good portion of their future by sending defenseman prospect Braydon Coburn to Philadelphia for Alexei Zhitnik, who happens to be 13 years older than Coburn. This morning, tsn.ca reports that the Thrashers have dealt multiple draft picks (including a first rounder) and a roster player* to St. Louis for forward Keith Tkachuk, a guy who is on pace for a 58-point season (using that standard, Dainius Zubrus -- on a pace for a 71-point season -- should fetch Jordan Staal and Ryan Whitney from Pittsburgh) and who is due to be come a free agent at the end of this season.

Panic on GM Don Waddell's part? Concern that his job is in jeopardy? These are moves that scream "sell our souls for right now." Atlanta has been sinking like a rock in February (2-7-2 overall) and is now only two points from dropping out of the playoff mix altogether.

This was the year Atlanta was supposed to make the playoffs. If they don't . . .

. . . well, that's why these kinds of moves are made. Trouble is, if they don't work out, Atlanta is setting themselves up for some major steps backward.


* update: tsn.ca reports that the deal is Tkachuk for:

- a first-round pick in 2007
- a third-round pick in 2007
- a second-round pick in 2008
- CenterGlen Metropolit.

All for a rental.

Ten-HUT!!! Caps-Devils II

Now, I want you to remember that no bastard ever won a hockey game by taking a penalty for his team. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard take a penalty for his team. Men, all this stuff you’ve heard about the Caps not wanting to fight, wanting to stay out of the contest, is a lot of horse dung. Caps traditionally love to fight. All real Caps love the sting of battle. When you were kids, you all admired the champion marble shooter, the fastest runner, the big league ball player, the toughest boxer. Caps fans love a winner and will not tolerate a loser. Caps play to win all the time. I wouldn’t give a hoot in hell for a man who lost and laughed. That’s why Caps have never lost and will never lose a game. Because the very thought of losing is hateful to Capitals.

Now, a hockey club is a team. It lives, eats, sleeps, checks as a team. This individuality stuff is a bunch of crap. The bilious bastards who wrote that stuff about individuality for ESPN don’t know anything more about real hockey games than they do about fornicating.

We have the finest food and equipment, the best spirit and the best men in the world. You know, by God I actually pity those poor bastards we’re going up against. By God, I do. We’re not just going to check the bastards, we’re going to cut out their living guts and use them to tape the blades of our sticks. We’re going to hit those lousy Devil bastards by the bushel.

Now, some of you boys, I know, are wondering whether or not you'll chicken out under fire. Don't worry about it. I can assure you that you will all do your duty. The Devils are the enemy. Wade into them. Spill their blood. Check them into the boards. When you put your hand into a bunch of goo that a moment before was your best friend's face, you'll know what to do.

Now there’s another thing I want you to remember. I don’t want to get any messages saying that we are holding our position. We’re not holding anything. Let Jersey do that. We are advancing constantly and we’re not interested in holding onto anything except the enemy. We're going to hold onto him by the nose and we're going to kick him in the ass. We're going to kick the hell out of him all the time and we're gonna go through him like crap through a goose.

There’s one thing that you men will be able to say when you get back home. And you may thank God for it. Thirty years from now when you’re sitting around your fireside with your grandson on your knee and he asks you what did you do in the great National Hockey League, you won’t have to say, "Well, I shoveled shit in DC."

Alright now, you sons-of-bitches, you know how I feel. Oh, and I will be proud to lead you wonderful guys into battle – anytime, anywhere.

That’s all.

$15,627,977

According to this site, this is the amount of payroll room available to the club with the most payroll room, well, available. It's more than 35 percent more than the club with the next highest amount of payroll room.

You want to hazard a guess as to just which team it is that is keeping its powder dryer than the Sahara?

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Devils I

It’s a two-point day, kiddies . . .

Beating New Jersey for the first time since February 19, 2004, is nice. Beating them in the Meadowlands for the first time since March 29, 2002, is really nice. Getting four goals on Martin Brodeur qualifies as miraculous, given the Caps’ offensive woes of late.

But it was a fine effort all around. There are some things one could pick on (Alex . . . no, not you, the other one . . . "pass" is something you can give, not just receive). However, that would be just that…picky. When you haven’t beaten a club on their ice in almost five years, you really shouldn’t be. So, what was the good?

Let’s start with “the rest of the lineup.” The Caps have a top-heavy scoring punch with the top line and Alexander Semin accounting for 60 percent of the Caps’ goals for the season coming into this game. Well, kudos to Matt Pettinger (with a shortie), Milan Jurcina (with his first as a Cap) , and Tomas Fleischmann (with his first of any kind in the NHL). Seven of the 10 points were had by “the rest of the lineup.”

Tomas Fleischmann – a goal, a couple of hits, and a penalty. OK, it wasn’t a Gordie Howe hat trick -- more like a Gordie Howe Headband, but it indicates involvement on the youngster’s part. He was not just a spectator, which might have been a description of his participation in earlier stints.

Boyd Gordon – didn’t have a shot on goal, but he had the primary assists on the Pettinger shorthanded goal and the Fleischmann goal, the latter springing Fleischmann as he was exiting the penalty box. And, he had a couple of hits and was on the plus side of draws (11 of 21).

Milan Jurcina – yeah, he got his goal, but he continues to be pretty solid in his own end. Plus-two and almost 26 minutes of ice time.

Brent Johnson – Nice to see his solid play rewarded. He deserves better than to be 1-2-2 since taking over for Olaf Kolzig in the wake of the latter’s knee injury. He’s 2.52, .914 in his five straight starts.

Alex Ovechkin – yes, he was held without a goal once more, but his performance was reminiscent of the hitter in baseball who has been in a slump who starts hitting ropes that get caught. That’s a sign the player is coming out of a slump. Ovechkin had more animation to his game than he’s had on a consistent basis lately, and he seemed to recognize that. From his post game comments reported in the Post . . .

"My game today was much better than last game and before last game. I didn't get a goal, but I feel more comfortable. It's okay. It's coming. I had lots of moments."

For the Caps, it’s not about the playoffs at this point, it is about getting better. That might mean getting more than the 70 points they finished with last year. Given the injuries that swept through the club from December forward, that might be an achievement to build on. They need 13 points in the final 20 games to achieve that goal. Last year, the Caps went 7-8-5 in their last 20 games for 19 points. Johnson was 4-3-1 in that season-ending stretch. If the Caps duplicate it, 77 points won’t look all that bad for this year.

Where you stand . . .

. . . depends on where you sit. Today, B. Thomas Golisano, owner of the Buffalo Sabres, sent a letter to NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman denouncing this hit in the Buffalo Sabres - Ottawa Senators game last Thursday:



It was a hard hit, a vicious one, in fact. Dirty? Guess that depends on whether you root for the Sabres or the Senators.

But this letter . . . such concern for others expressed . . . It leads off as follows:

I am deeply concerned with the standard the NHL has adopted that seems to allow violent hits to the head.

In light of the most recent injury to our captain Chris Drury, I am calling on you to address this issue immediately before another player is seriously injured or worse.

Gee, Tom, are you just as concerned about hits like these? . . .



Or is it just the color of uniform taking the hit that concerns you? Spare us the sanctimony, big guy.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Devils Two-Fer

I think I can, I think I can, I think I can . . .

The Cap have beaten the New Jersey Devils once . . . once . . . in the last 13 meetings.

I think I can, I think I can, I think I can . . .

The Caps have been outscored 41-23 in those 13 games.

I think I can, I think I can, I think I can . . .

The Caps have been held to one or no goals in six of the 13 games.

I think I can, I think I can, I think I can . . .

Martin Brodeur is 30-10-4, 2.05, .914 in his career versus Washington.

I think I can, I think I can, I think I can . . .

Brodeur hasn’t lost back-to-back decisions in regulation since dropping games to Buffalo (3-2) and Detroit (2-1), December 12th and 16^th.

I think I can, I think I can, I think I can . . .

Brodeur is 21-5-4 since then, 1.93, .933, seven shutouts.

I think I can, I think I can, I think I can . . .

Brodeur has figured in 59 of New Jersey’s 61 decisions this year . . . if he plays both games, it would hardly be a surprise.

I think I can, I think I can, I think I can . . .

Brodeur leads the league in games played, wins, goals against, shutouts, total shots faced, and total saves. He is second in save percentage.

I think I can, I think I can, I think I can . . .

New Jersey has won as many games this month (eight) as the Caps have since their high-water mark on December 16^th (15-10-7).

I think I can, I think I can, I think I can . . .

New Jersey has given up one . . . one . . . 5-on-3 power play goal this year; no one else has given up fewer than four (just thought I’d throw that in there).

I think I can, I think I can, I think I can . . .

The Caps haven’t won a season series against Jersey since the 1999-2000 season…they won’t this year, either.

I think I can, I think I can, I think I can . . .

New Jersey doesn’t scare anyone with their offense, but they are at least competent. They have seven players in double-digits with goals, with perhaps three others who could get there – John Madden, Jay Pandolfo, and Brian Rafalski (the Caps have five, with no one else likely to get there, given playing time patterns these days). Jersey has seven players with at least 20 assists; the Caps have three.

Doesn’t look too good, does it? Well, that’s why the Caps have Jersey just where they want them . . . honest. Why? Because The Peerless always thinks that? Well, there is that, but there is something else. Tuesday night. New Jersey plays Pittsburgh Tuesday night, and the Penguins lurk seven points behind the Devils with a game in hand. New Jersey is as disciplined a club as there is in the league, but they are flesh and blood, too. Could there be the slightest peeking ahead?

The Caps haven’t scored more than three goals in a game in almost a month (a 7-2 win against Carolina). They don’t have to against this team, and that is something they need to keep in mind. Jersey plays their games close. 34 of their 61 decisions are of the one-goal variety (they’ve won 23). The Caps aren’t bad in close games – 7-7-10 in one goal games, 5-4 in two-goal games. Since Jersey doesn’t get involved in too many blowouts (12 three-goal-or-more decisions this year), the Caps actually have a fighting chance (and keep that word “fighting” in mind, this being a home-and-home, back-to-back series).

There is a difference between being a bad club and be a club that is playing badly. The Caps have been the latter for two months now. Injuries and the demoralizing effects of losses piling up does that. But the Caps can – and should be able to – muster a superior effort against this club, one they play close in most games, even as they usually end up on the short end of the score. This weekend . . .

I think they will, I think they will, I think they will . . .

Caps 3 – Devils 2 in both games.

It isn't about the stars, folks

Why are the Penguins 17-2-3 since December 29th, and the Caps 7-13-2? A lot of it is a product of the play of goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, but that's a discussion for another time. Pittsburgh is also winning, and the Caps aren't, because it's not about the stars, that's why. Crosby? Ovechkin? They are largely constants on their respective clubs (the recent "slump" by Ovechkin notwithstanding...the Caps weren't winning when he was putting together a 13-game scoring streak, either (5-8-0)).

It's the other guys.

Let's go to the numbers. Since December 29th, each team has played 22 games. The Penguins have scored 87 goals in that span (hmm...coincidence?), the Caps 62. Why is Pittsburgh getting a full goal a game more offensive production?

It's the other guys.

If you look at the top four goal scorers for each club, the numbers aren't that far apart:

Pittsburgh --

Jordan Staal: 14
Evgeni Malkin: 12
Mark Recchi: 11
Sidney Crosby: 9

Total: 46

Washington --

Alexander Semin: 15
Chris Clark 10
Alex Ovechkin: 9
Dainius Zubrus: 6

Total: 40

Things get intersting when you look at the next seven for each club:

Pittsburgh --

Ouellet: 6
Whitney: 5
Christensen: 5
Ruutu: 5
Gonchar: 4
Malone 4
Talbot: 4
Total: 33

Washington --

Clymer: 4
Laich: 3
Nycholat: 2
Sutherby: 2
Brashear: 2
Pettinger: 2
Fehr: 2
Total: 17

Washington is getting half as much production from the "next tier" of players than is Pittsburgh. That's not all Crosby, and it isn't all Ovechkin. That's an indication of what is lacking with the Caps and how much work still must be done in building a roster. It isn't about Crosby and Ovechkin. Those guys are going to get their points and make their impressions. But to the extent either of these clubs has any measure of success, they are going to have to get significant contributions from guys you don't see on highlight reels every night. Pittsburgh is getting those contributions, the Caps aren't.

The Peerless is OUT

...for the weekend. We'll be walking out the door in a little bit to head to Pennsylvania (motto: "Sorry, We're Closed"). Tonight, an AHL tilt: Phantoms/Penguins.

See you Monday, have a good holiday weekend (Go Washington!...Go Lincoln!...Go Caps!!!)

. . . like a mob family

The Peerless is bored with all this ice lying around, so we were reading a few hockey blogs. The folks at On Frozen Blog posted an entry that referred to a column authored by Michael Farber on January 30 in the online version of Sports Illustrated. In it, Farber had this to say about the Caps . . .

“Washington is an old-time team -- led by general manager George McPhee, a little guy who was pound-for-pound the NHL's toughest player in the mid-1980s -- that takes no guff and sticks together like a mob family.”

Well, not so fast. I get the “mob family” part, but let’s look at the characters in “The Godfather” and try to match them to personalities on this club . . .

Vito Corleone. The Godfather. The unquestioned head of the family. Ambious character fuels his drive to build an empire. Highly defined code of honor, faithful to his family to the point of indulgence. Caps character: Ted Leonsis

Michael Corleone. The youngest boy. Quiet, intense, disciplined, ruthless. Very intelligent, can be difficult to read. Does not make any moves without meticulous planning. Not to be crossed by anyone outside the family…or inside it. Caps character: George McPhee

Santino “Sonny” Corleone. The oldest son. Emotional, impulsive, quick-tempered. Groomed to be the heir to The Godfather’s reign. But emotion seems to get the better of him when he needs it least. Caps character: Brian Sutherby.

Tom Hagen. Came to the Corleone household from the outside as homeless eleven year-old, grew to become The Godfather’s consigliere. Represents family business faithfully, capable of carrying out The Godfather’s wishes precisely and expeditiously. Not a horse lover. Caps Character: Glen Hanlon.

Federico “Fredo” Corleone. The middle son. A second fiddle, first to Sonny, then to Michael. Not given important responsibilities, given to impulsive, lazy, and even weak actions. Passed by others in the Corleone pecking order. Caps character: Jakub Klepis.

Pete Clemenza. Absolutely devoted to the family. Takes Michael under his wing. As much as can be expected, he is among the friendlier, outgoing, and more jovial members of the family. Perhaps does not have quite the stuff to rise as high in the family hierarchy as others. Caps character: Dainius Zubrus.

Luca Brasi. Personal enforcer for The Godfather. Seen by outsiders as brutish; he is loyal to other members of the family, feared and respected for his enforcer’s skill outside it. Caps Character: Donald Brashear.

Salvatore “Sal” Tessio. Contemporary of Clemenza, but much more talented at thinking ahead and figuring things out (with one notable exception). Savvy, with a sense of how things can and should be done. Caps character: Chris Clark

Vincent Mancini-Corleone. Son of Sonny Corleone. The character is a combination of characters reflected in other Corleone family members – cunning, ruthlessness, intensity, skill in family affairs. Caps character: Alex Ovechkin.

OK, I know, Dainius Zubrus didn’t take George McPhee under his wing, and Alex Ovechkin is not the son of Brian Sutherby, who is not being groomed to take over for Ted Leonsis (but has been mentioned as a "captain-in-waiting”). Sue me. I was bored.

The Peerless will let someone else take a crack at matching Caps to “The Sopranos.”

Warning signs

We'll leave the Caps for a moment to notice something else concerning a club of some (some would say an unusual) interest among Caps fans.

Often the seeds of a winning streak can be found in the way clubs lose games before that streak begins. Conversely, one can see the end of a winning streak in the way clubs win games at the end of that streak.

Such is the case with the NHL's hottest club at the moment, the Pittsburgh Penguins. The club is on a 15-2-3 run. But the seeds of bad habits are creeping into their game that could spell trouble ahead.

The Penguins have won each of their last three games in a more-than-60-minute fashion: a 5-4 shootout win against the Flyers, a 6-5 overtime win against Toronto, and a 5-4 shootout win against the Blackhawks last night after coughing up a 3-1 lead. Shootout wins against also-rans? 13 goals given up in their last three games versus only 38 in the previous 17 games?

Fortunately for Penguin fans, they play in what is arguably the weakest division -- top to bottom -- in the East (the Atlantic has, by far, the worst intra-conference record among the three Eastern Conference divisions). But this might bear watching as the Caps travel to Pittsburgh on Sunday. Unless those emerging bad habits are nipped in the bud by Michel Therrien, the Penguins are could come crashing to earth pretty quick.

Why Jamie Heward is My Hero

The Peerless noted in Dan Steinberg's DC Sports Bog this quote from Caps defenseman Jamie Heward in response to a question as to whether he broke out a shovel after today's storm. . .

"Nope. There's not enough to warrant a real shovel-out, you know? When it gets to three, four-feet high, then I've got to shovel it out."

In honor of Jamie, my driveway remains unviolated by the blade of a shovel. Jamie knows snow . . .

. . . The Peerless knows lazy.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lightning, February 15th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

We return to hockey Thursday evening with a visit to Florida and the Tampa Bay Bettmans . . . er, Lightning.

“Bettmans,” Peerless? Well, yes. Since the last time the two clubs met, the Lightning are 10-3-0 in 13 games. “Wow,” you exclaim? Well, four of those ten wins are of the shootout variety (thanks, Mr. Commish). And, they have three other wins of the one-goal variety. It isn’t as if the Lightning have been burying opponents. They’ve managed to show just how thin the margin is between winning and losing in the NHL these days. If they lose those four shootouts, they are in eighth, not sixth place. And if those one-goal wins had been losses on top of that, they’d be 13^th.

Tampa has been the picture of “okay-ness” in their winning run since last facing the Caps, scoring 37 goals while giving up 34. But their special teams have been rather special. They’ve been 13 of 46 on the power play (28.3 percent), including nine of their last 26. The penalty kill has been 40 of 47 (85.1 percent), including 26 of their last 28.

Peering deeper into the numbers, Tampa has taken a lead into the first intermission five times in this 10-3 run. They’ve won four of those games, roughly consistent with their season winning percentage in such situations (78.9 percent). Six times they trailed after one period, and three times they lost (two of their shootout wins came under such circumstances). But it’s been more a case of a back-and-forth character to Lightning games – scoring by period is roughly even: 1^st period: 10 GF/11 GA, 2^nd period: 17 GF, 12 GA; 3^rd period: 10 GF, 11 GA

Vincent Lecavalier has been on fire for the Lightning, goal scoring-wise. He is 11-6-17, -1 over the last 13 games to take over the league goal-scoring lead (37, three more than second-place Alex Ovechkin). The other two of Tampa Bay’s “big three” are conspicuous on the scoresheet as well. Martin St. Louis is 5-12-17, +2; while Brad Richards is 6-7-13, -2 in the last 13 games.

Johan Holmqvist appears to have grabbed the reins of the number one goaltending position with the Lightning. He is 8-2-0 in this recent run with a 2.14 GAA and .923 save percentage. Marc Denis appears to have played himself to baseball cap-wearing duty with a 2-1-0 record, but a 3.14 GAA and .894 save percentage. The trick for Holmqvist is in being able to maintain this level of play. Before this season, one in which he’s appeared in 33 games, he had a total of four games of work in the NHL. In a way, he might be a reflection of just what a crap-shoot picking goalies can be. A former 7^th round draft pick of the Rangers in 1997, he subsequently did enough bouncing around from the AHL (193 games) to the Swedish Elite League (182 games) to qualify for a “super ball” designation before signing with Tampa Bay as a free agent last June

-- Johan Holmqvist Caps-related trivia moment . . . the Rangers parted ways with Holmqvist in a 2003 trade with the Minnesota Wild. Who did the Rangers get in return? Lawrence Nycholat.

For the Caps, it’s about focus. Olaf Kolzig is on the shelf with a grade-two tear of the medial collateral ligament in his left knee (translation: “ouch”) and is expected to be out at least three weeks. There, that’s the situation, and the best must be made of it. Brent Johnson, who has had something of an inconsistent record in a backup role this season, might look back on how he completed last year, when he was 4-1-1, 1.79, .956 in splitting the last dozen games of work for the season.

It will be nice to have some extra hands on deck as John Erskine and Brian Pothier appear ready to return to the lineup, according to Tarik El-Bashir, but for the skaters what will be of interest is a matter of style. The Caps, who spent much of late-December and January giving up goals as if they were tax-deductible contributions to charity (72 goals in 19 games December 19 through January 30^th), went to a trapping-style of defense to stem that tide. But in looking to solve one problem, they created another. They have 12 goals scored in six February games. And, they’ve given up 19.

The Caps have to start looking at the longer view. What kind of club do they want to build for next year? A trapping style of the sort played in New Jersey is good for that club, but for one that will likely have the sort of skill reflected in an Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, and Nicklas Backstrom? When the rules have been tailored to bring out the skill in skill players? That doesn’t absolve the players from being responsible defensively, but to adopt such a style as a “system” would not seem a fit for this club as it is being built. And that’s been something of an emerging problem for the club over the past couple of months. Just what is this club’s personality? We’re going to to get a clue about that over the next few weeks.

Given Tampa’s recent history, the key for the Caps (to state the obvious to NHL observers) will be to keep the Lightning from breaking fast -- all three of their losses came in which they trailed going into the first intermission. And, to state the even more obvious, the Caps will have to find a way to keep the big three of Lecavalier, Richards, and St. Louis (22 of Tampa Bay’s 37 goals in the last 13 games) from doing too much damage. But here is a subtle key . . .

. . . watch Vaclav Prospal. He has three goals in the last 13 games, but each one was the first tally for the Lightning in the game, and each one served to tie a game the Lightning would eventually win.

In the meantime, the Caps get a character check tomorrow night. It says here that they will pass this test . . .

Caps 5 – Lightning 3.

It's all about the kids . . .

Perusing the Caps blogs in wake of the injury sustained by goaltender Olaf Kolzig yesterday, The Peerless notes that Caps Nut steps away from his usual ascerbic take on things to paint a reasonable picture of what we might look forward to, and JP takes up the theme in his offering on the matter.

What does that mean for this club in the here and now?

Well, here is the cold truth to dispense with right now . . . the Caps have 25 games to play, and if Kolzig were to miss precisely the three weeks forecast in yesterday’s stories, he’d miss nine games:

@Tampa Bay
@Pittsburgh
@Montreal
San Jose
@New Jersey
New Jersey
Florida
Tampa Bay
NY Islanders

Objectively, you’d have to think the Caps would be underdogs in each of those games, eight of which are against playoff clubs or playoff hopefuls, and one against a club the Caps can’t beat to save their season lately. But let’s say the Caps do break even in that stretch. That would still leave them with 63 points and 16 games to play upon Kolzig’s return. Using last year as a benchmark, when Tampa Bay secured the last spot in the East with 92 points, the Caps would need 29 points in their last 16 games – a 148-point pace over a whole season – to get the eighth spot.

Not looking good.

The competitive part of the season (unless you’re actually a player) is over. From here on out, it’s about the kids. There is no good reason from the big club’s perspective to sending guys like Eric Fehr or Jeff Schultz back down to Hershey, unless it’s for the AHL playoffs. Fehr has averaged 10:32 in ice time a night in his ten-game stint. Schultz – 17:57. Milan Jurcina – 23:11 in five games since coming over from Boston. Boyd Gordon has been given more responsibility as the season has worn on (out of necessity) but is still averaging only 15 minutes a night. Brooks Laich is averaging about 12-and-a-half.

Getting these guys minutes, and even bringing up guys like Chris Bourque, Tomas Fleischmann, Alexandre Giroux, Jakub Klepis, and Maxime Daigneault for a few games, could be important for the club the Caps ice next year much more than the “growing pains” club would endure for icing such a club for the remainder of this year.

This isn’t like 2003-2004, when the Caps threw together a rag-tag, spare parts club to finish the year. With apologies to the likes of Brad Norton, Jean-Luc Grand-Pierre, Roman Tvrdon, and the like, but the club that finished the year was the hockey equivalent of the “mop-up” reliever in baseball. That club was playing out the string.

This is – as Caps Nut and JP suggest – an opportunity or even a “blessing.” It might be a bit painful to endure for the moment, but the NHL is chock full of examples of clubs that endured growing pains reflected in the standings only to become contenders in the years that followed – Ottawa, Tampa Bay, Carolina, and (as much as it pains The Peerless to say) perhaps even Pittsburgh.

Last year, we got a flavor for who could play at the AHL level as the Bears won the Calder Cup. Over the last 25 games, we might get a clearer picture of who can play the game at this level. That can’t be a bad thing . . .

“Things turn out best for people who make the best out of the way things turn out” -- John Wooden

"I can safely say that it didn't look good" . . . And that, dear friends, is that it?

Tarik El-Bashir reports in his Capitals Insider blog that Olaf Kolzig was injured in practice today. It will be officially described as a "lower-body injury," no doubt, but El-Bashir noted that "it appeared to be a groin injury."

If true, and if it is as serious as El-Bahir's entry suggests, then whatever faint playoff hopes the Caps might have had could very likely be extinguished (with apologies to Brent Johnson, who has just come back from his own injury) for this season.

The fear all along was that this club could not endure a significant injury and lost playing time to any of its marquee players (of which there are arguably two). That the club was picked to death by comparative gnat bites to defensemen not thought to be critical to the Caps' fortunes showed how brittle the club was. One hopes that with three days remaining in the five day hiatus between games that Kolzig will be able to recouperate before the game in Tampa on Thursday or the Penguin game on Sunday.

But commentary that "it didn't look good" doesn't give a fan a warm and fuzzy feeling . . .

Contributions Needed

The Caps season that looked so bright when the club beat Philadelphia on December 16th to go to 15-10-7 has come unraveled in an 8-16-1 stretch since that night. What happened? Here's a clue . . .

The quartet of Alex Ovechkin, Dainius Zubrus, Chris Clark, and Alexander Semin have scored a total of 45 goals in that span of 25 games. The rest of the club?

25

That's right, on any given night, the rest of the club can be counted on for one goal. One. Now, let's break it down among the forwards who have logged significant time:

Matt Pettinger: 24 games, 2-6-8, -12
Kris Beech: 18 games, 3-4-7, -6
Ben Clymer: 23 games, 4-6-10, -2
Boyd Gordon: 25 games, 1-7-8, -2
Brooks Laich: 25 games, 3-5-8, +4
Brian Sutherby: 24 games, 2-1-3, -6 (14 games without a point, and counting)
Donald Brashear: 23 games, 2-2-4, +1

17 goals in 162 man-games. The Caps are not a difficult team to figure out.

A "Best of The Peerless" Pre-Preview of the Lightning

Since we have a five day hiatus before the Caps take the ice against the Lightning, we bring you another in a series of "The Best of the Peerless," from November 2003 . . .

Welcome, fans of the fastest team sport on earth to another edition of The Peerless Prognosticator, this time brought to you by . . . the makers of NyQuil, who advise you never to take this medication when driving or watching hockey teams that play the trap.

Re”Cap” of Caps versus Wild . . . well, one in a row wasn’t bad while it lasted. The Caps started slow, played like a team that didn’t get to bed until 4 a.m., and let a team in ugly jerseys have its way with them. The bottom half of the forward lines played as if it would have brought a jail term to actually take a shot on goal. The defensemen didn’t play altogether badly, they played badly individually. Dwayne Roloson could have knitted a sweater for all the work he had manning the Wild net (“Wild” . . . now there is an ill-fitting name for a team, given their style, which makes Perry Como sound like a hard-rocker). Well, it’s on the road again, this time to the sunnier climes of Florida to take on the undefeated (did anyone think they’d be using this adjective in their lifetime right before the word) Lightning of Tampa Bay. Let’s get to the business of the prognostications . . .

Pre-Game . . . it’s Election Day in this great land of ours, and nowhere is this solemn day more celebrated than in the great state of Florida. The Lightning are sponsoring a special promotion . . . they’ll “recount” your ticket price in half if you come dressed as a chad. They’ve invited U.S. Representative (and former Florida Secretary of State) Katherine Harris to “certify” tonight’s attendance figures.

First Period . . . Well, what do we call it? Peter Bondra ($4.5 million), Robert Lang ($5.0 million), and Jaromir Jagr ($11.0 million) . . . the “Trump Line?” . . . worth a fortune, but a gamble every time they take the ice? The “Gates Line?” . . . the richest line in all the NHL? “The Showcase Line?” . . . since all of them are rumored to be up for sale? The “100 Line?” . . . since if you add their jersey numbers (12-20-68), they sum to 100? The “Minus Chris Simon Line?” . . . because combined they’re a -17 on the year?

Oops, while all this was going on, the “GDP of Trinidad and Tobago” Line was losing the draw to Tim Taylor, Al Borland, and Heidi (in the lineup replacing Dave Andreychuk and Ben Clymer). Taylor pulled the puck back to Dan Boyle who sent it into the Caps’ zone. Sergei Gonchar circled behind the net to collect the puck, prompting Taylor to signal Borland to go in on the forecheck . . . “I don’t think so, Tim.” Gonchar sent the puck ahead to Jagr, but the lovesick right winger was distracted by Heidi (hey, who wouldn’t be?) . . . Brad Luckowich intercepted the puck and snapped it past a startled Olaf Kolzig, and the Lighting were celebrating the early election returns.

This just in . . . with one percent of the pucks in, CBS is calling the game for . . . the Tampa Bay Lightning. Here is Dan Rather . . . “as certain as a tick on a duck in July, the Tampa Bay Lightning are projected the winner in the hotly disputed hockey game with the Washington Capitals.” Huh?

Meanwhile, the brokerage firm of Bondra, Lang, and Jagr are seeking big returns on their investment in “puck-bellies.” Jagr curls into the zone, bringing that ugly schmutz of a defenseman Pavel Kubina with him . . . Jagr sends the puck back along the boards for Lang, who chips it over to Bondra, who winds and fires . . . and misses. Can’t anybody shoot this puck?! A question to ponder as the teams head off after one period, the Lightning up 1-0.

First Intermission . . . It’s the Fan Participation segment of the evening, and three Lightning fans are brought down to the ice to answer a hockey question . . . “Who is the all time leader in points scored in the National Hockey League?” A fan from St. Petersburg answers, “Warren Sapp.” Awwwww . . . close, but not the right answer. A fan from Bradenton answers, “Jeb Bush.” Hee-yeah . . . right. OK, last we have a fan from Clearwater who offers up . . . “Wayne Huizenga.” Hey, we have a winner! (Hey, he had the word “Wayne” in there, it’s close enough for these hockey-challenged boobs).

Second Period . . . The “National Debt Line” opens the period once more for the Caps. Tampa counters again with the “Tool Man-Borland-Heidi” line (all using the Binford 6000 Ultra-Max hockey stick . . . for what? . . . MORE POWER!! . . . argh-argh-argh). Lang backhands the puck to Jagr, who carries the mail down the right side. But, when Heidi flashes some skate, the puck dribbles off the end of his stick to Dan Boyle, who races the other way . . . Boyle skates through the Caps’ defense and is in alone on Olaf Kolzig, who to this point has been practicing his inflections in dropping “F-bombs!” . . . f-YOU! . . . uh, F- YOU!! . . . . um . . e-e-e-e-e-ff YOU! . . . Boyle is about to sneak the puck past the eloquent netminder when Kolzig spies him racing in . . . F-YOUUUUUU!!! as Kolzig makes the pad save to deny a glorious chance.

The “Spare Change Line” of Boyd Gordon, Brian Sutherby, and Stephen Peat jumps into the play and registers a shot on goal . . . ESPN reports this as breaking news on SportsCenter.

On NBC, Tom Brokaw breaks in to a heartwarming episode of Fear Factor for an update . . . “the race between the Tampa Bay Lah-ightning and the Washington Capitah-ls is too cl-ah-ose to cahl . . .” You interrupted a banquet of pigs brains and goose poop for that?!

Back to the action, the Monopoly Money Line of Bates Battaglia, Jeff Halpern, and Mike Grier are fighting off the thrusts of the Lecavalier line . . . Battaglia plants Frederik Modin right into Park Place, freeing the puck to be picked up by Mike Grier on a break . . . Grier separates himself from Jassen Cullimore and heads in alone on Nikolai Kh-h-h-h-abibulin (gotta cut back on the dairy) . . . he dekes left . . . dekes right . . . does the Hokey-Pokey . . . shakes it all about . . . and somewhere in this mess, the puck ends up in the back of the net! . . . hey, who cares, ‘cuz that’s what it’s all about!!

The period ends with more subplots and story twists than you can shake a palm tree at . . . will one of the “money” lines for the Caps be the heroes? Will any network call this election right? Will Brokaw ever get a speech coach? Will Jagr “score” with Heidi? The suspense is killing me! Lightning 1 - Caps 1.

Second Intermission . . . On ESPN, the NHL2Night crew is taking a turn into investigative journalism . . . “Barry Melrose: Dippity Do or Brylcreem?” Geraldo Rivera promises to get to the bottom of this story . . .

Third Period . . . Back and forth . . . CBS . . . NBC . . . CNN . . . ABC . . . FOX . . . they’re calling it for Tampa Bay . . . for Washington . . . for Tampa Bay . . . for Washington . . . the Caps are preparing a concession speech . . . Tampa is reported to be bowing out . . . the teams go back and forth. We might need the Supreme Court to intervene.

Finally, it’s up to the World Bank Line to extend a line of credit . . . Peter Bondra creates a turnover in the neutral zone and sends the puck across to Robert Lang . . . Jagr weaves behind Lang to pick up the puck . . . the Tool Man-Borland-Heidi line is backchecking . . . Heidi bats her eyes at Jagr, but a familiar voice slices through the crowd . . . “I love you, Jaromir!” . . . Andrea? . . . inspired by this unexpected turn of events, Jagr dispatches Heidi with a wave of his arm and turns in on Kh-h-h-h-abibulin, defenseless against the dekeitude about to be wrought upon him. Left, right, back, forth, up, down . . . a Curly woob-woob-woob for good measure, and the puck is in the back of the net.

Jagr plunges the dagger into the Lightning with an empty netter, leading FOX to call the election for George Bush and Dan Rather on CBS to talk about how it don’t rain in west Texas when the cows come home. The reunited lovebirds renew acquaintances, Tampa fans head off muttering to themselves, “Red-skins suck . . . Red-skins suck . . .” . . . and The Peerless heads off to console a rejected Heidi . . . 3 - 1, Caps.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Rangers

No points tonight, Caps fans.

“Frustration”

That’s the word that comes to mind thinking about the Caps’ 5-2 loss to the Rangers last night. And there was a lot to be frustrated about . . . a basketball game earlier that day left the ice resembling a gravel parking lot more than a smooth sheet of ice with the pucks bouncing all over the place . . . there was the now-required damage to a pane of glass . . . there was the return to the 90’s refereeing (what was that about obstruction calls being, well, called?) . . . there was the sick feeling as Alex Ovechkin skated in alone on Henrik Lundqvist on a breakaway that there was no way he was going to score (he didn’t, as the puck rolled up the blade of his stick as he attempted a backhand) . . . there was Sean Avery . . . and there was the sinking feeling that this was it, that with the Caps being 8 points out of a playoff spot with 25 games to go and five teams to climb over, that this was the last meaningful game fans would see at Verizon Center this year.

The Caps now go on the road to play a Lightning team desperately hanging onto the eighth-place spot, a streaking Penguins team (14-2-3), and a solid Montreal club. The word coming to mind with respect to the Caps’ chances is, “bleak.”

Frankly, there was no excuse for this one. The Rangers came into Washington on the heels of a 5-0 whitewash of the Lightning, but they did play the previous night and had to travel. Still, the Caps ended up outshot in the first period 6-0 to start the game, 11-1 by the time the Rangers scored the first goal of the game 11:18 in, and 16-6 for the period. The Caps allowed the Rangers to set the tone and dictate the terms of competition pretty much the entire game.

Outwardly, this had the whiff of a “playoff” game for the Caps. Glen Hanlon shortened his bench drastically – four forwards (including Brian Sutherby) had less than ten minutes of playing time. Eric Fehr had one shift in the last 30 minutes. Matt Bradley – two shifts in the last 26 minutes . . . Donald Brashear – one shift in the last 28 minutes (although he did spend five of that in the box for pummeling Colton Orr) . . . Sutherby – two shifts in the last 23 minutes. Both teams trapped more than Jeremiah Johnson.

What this game came down to was experience and passing ability, the Rangers being on the long end of both. The Rangers arguably lost the stat sheet in many respects (hits, faceoffs, takeaways, blocked shots), but they won in one important respect – shots. Much of that was a product of having a club with accomplished passers – Michael Nylander, Jaromir Jagr, Martin Straka – able to find lanes in the trapping Caps defense to get an open shot. By comparison, the Caps once more had a difficult time getting the puck out of their own end, and even when they did could not find open teammates for shots. There was a lot of empty cycling behind the Rangers’ net. Both Caps goals, it should be pointed out, were the product the mysterious "notch" . . . perhaps the result of the afternoon basketball game – odd bounces off boards assembled under time pressure . . . or perhaps the product of an elaborate fix perpetrated by the Caps (Larry Brooks saves some of the best whining in recent history for this problem, not to mention coach Tom Renney, who sounded like the coach of the losing team in the post-game) that resulted in goals by Alexander Ovechkin and Chris Clark. Neither goal was the result of an actual pass to a player.

The Caps did play a decent game on defense, the final score serving to obscure that point. The Rangers had only one 5-on-5 goal (Straka’s second of the night 6:09 into the third period). But the Caps gave the Rangers a bit too much time and space to make plays, and ultimately it broke them down. There is a fine line between giving a skilled opponent enough respect and giving them too much. That Nylander, Jagr, and Straka had a total of six points among them tonight suggests the Caps were on the wrong side of that line, and that is a problem only experience will solve. So fans . . .

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Rangers, February 10th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Tonight, the opponent is the New York Rangers, or as Larry Brooks might say, “the only hockey club worthy of the name.” Well, it looks as if they’re worthy enough to draw what could be, if not a sellout, then the biggest crowd of the year at Verizon Center.

If you were to look at the Blueshirts over the year, you might be humming something like this. The Rangers have had three winning streaks of three games or more, two losing streaks of three games or more, and even a three game overtime/shootout loss streak.

At the moment, they are lost in a 4-7-1 stretch that has seen their shaky playoff hopes fall to the other side of the top-eight divide. They currently reside in 11^th place in the East, three points ahead of the Caps with a game in hand.

The Rangers have been something of an “all-or-nothing” club over their last dozen games. Their four wins have been by a combined 16-3 margin. They’ve also had a “just short” kind of performance. Including the shootout loss, they have five one-goal losses among the eight they registered.

Offense has been a problem. Explosive on occasion – witnessed by 5-0 and 6-1 wins -- they scored a total of 21 goals in the other ten games. The power play is a particular culprit, as much for the chances they’ve managed to generate as of productivity. 47 chances in 12 games is not an especially large number of chances (3.9-per-game, lower than their 5.0 chances-per-game for the year, which is already only 19^th in the league), and converting only seven of those (14.9 percent) hasn’t made up for it. Fortunately for the Rangers, their penalty killing has been excellent – 41 of 46 (89.1 percent) over the last 12 games.

Another problem has been holding leads. The Rangers scored first in six of their past seven games. It hardly seems to have mattered; they’re 3-3 in those six games scoring first.

As one might expect, the offense begins with Jaromir Jagr. But that is not saying as much this year as last. His assist totals are on a pace with last year’s (67 versus last year’s total of 69), but his goal scoring is down (a pace for 31 versus 54 last year), an obvious product of the shoulder injury he sustained in the playoffs last spring. Over his last 12 games he leads the club in scoring (5-12-7, -1), but he seems not to be the dynamic presence hockey fans are used to seeing. Michael Nylander has picked up some of the slack (4-8-12, -5 in the last 12 games), but the real curiosity on this club is Brendan Shanahan. The left winger is 4-4-8, -3 in his last 12 games, but the odd statistic he will bring to the game tonight is that he has two even strength goals scored in the last two months. The Rangers are 11-14-1 over that span.

Henrik Lundqvist recorded the 5-0 shoutout win over Tampa Bay last night (thanks…I think), and given the Rangers’ growing sense of urgency with respect to the playoffs, he seems likely to get the call tonight as well. Why not? He’s played every one of the last dozen games, and done so very well – certainly better than the win-loss record. Over that span, he has the 4-7-1 record, but also has a 2.01 GAA and .926 save percentage.

For the Caps, the object of the exercise is to close strong on the homestand. So far, they have five of six possible points, and they face a beatable team tonight. These are teams in similar circumstances (the Caps also are 4-7-1 in their last dozen games). Both clubs have shown signs of emerging from their respective funks – the Caps have that 2-0-1 record on this home stand, the Rangers are 1-1-1 with a shutout of the Lightning, a shootout loss in New Jersey, and a one-goal loss to the Red Wings.

It would be nice to get Alexander Ovechkin restarted on his goal scoring march, but that is a matter somewhat overblown (the four-game goal draught comes on the heels of having scored goals in five of six games – these things happen with goal scorers). The bigger issue is the power play, which is 2-for-February (24 chances) and 7-for-56 (12.5 percent) since scoring a late power play goal in a 3-1 loss to Florida on January 13^th. And, as for the Rangers, the fortunate aspect of this is that the Caps’ penalty kill has been very good (54 kills in the last 62 situations – 87.1 percent).

So that’s what this might come down to . . . the limp forces (the teams’ power play) versus the immovable objects (the teams’ penalty kill). If either club gets any power play production, it is likely to be the difference.

It says here that the difference is Ovechkin getting back on track with power play success . . .

Caps 3 – Rangers 2.