A TWO Point Night...Caps 4 - Flyers 3 (OT)

A TWO point night…that’s right, a TWO point night.

Been awhile, hasn’t it?

So, having announced the obvious, I’ll be the one to say…and?

There is the good, the bad, and the ugly in the Caps’ 4-3 overtime win over the Flyers – sort of a Readers’ Digest version of the Caps’ season so far.

The Good…

- For those of you scoring at home, this was only the third loss at home of any kind by the Flyers this season (6-1-2 after today’s 4-3 overtime loss).

- It was the first NHL win in his first NHL game as head coach for Bruce Boudreau

- It was a game-winning goal for “shoulda-been-first-star” Nicklas Backstrom. The kid plays like he’s been in the NHL ten years…ok, maybe five.

- It was a solid game by Brian Pothier. The trick to his game seems to be to play within himself. If he does that, he probably won’t be on the ice for a lot of goals for, but he won’t be on for many against, either, and that is really the more important consideration for his role.

- The depth of Alexander Ovechkin’s game. He was held to one shot on goal in the first two periods, but ramped up his whole game quite a bit in the third. Four shots, four hits, three takeaways, and the primary assist on the game-winner.

- Chris Clark…one might think that he was a little over the top in coming to the defense of Boyd Gordon, taking a double minor, a major, and a misconduct (wearing the visor does have its drawbacks in the rules…see Rule 47.6). But the Captain was sending a message – to the Flyers and to his teammates. Had the double minor resulted in any more than the goal by Daniel Briere, it might have been different, but in service of a win? Clark earned “stand-up” points for taking on Scott Hartnell.

The Bad…

- Matt Pettinger…not that he played badly, but he is in one hellacious stretch of bad luck. He can’t buy a goal at the moment. Five shots, and nothing to show for it, including an excellent chance when he was in alone on Martin Biron. Right now, he could be firing pucks at Martin Short and wouldn’t find twine.

- Milan Jurcina…was better than he’s been the last 3-4 weeks, but that shouldn’t be confused with being good, either. He had his moments when he was not in any position to make a play, and that’s a bad place to be for a defenseman, especially in his own zone.

- Jeff Schultz. One might have noticed that there were no Capitals’ defensemen in the frame of the shot when Mike Richards was left alone in front of Olaf Kolzig to sweep the puck in…those defensemen would have been Schultz and Jurcina.

The Ugly…

- The Jeff Carter goal…it almost defined the term, “wish I could have that one back” for Olaf Kolzig. Coming two minutes after the Briere goal, it could have spelled curtains for the Caps, but today was a different day…

…and speaking of which, the Caps clearly had the “new coach jump.” A team that looked to be skating through the motions for the last month looked invigorated. When pressured, they didn’t buckle. When dealt adversity, they didn’t wilt.

But kids, that is one game. Unless it escaped our attention, the Caps are still last in the East and will be when they take the ice in tomorrow’s contest against Carolina. But a team can only win one game at a time. And the Caps won this one against an opponent that was playing decently (3-1-1 in their last five games) and was very difficult on their ice (6-1-1 at home coming into this game).

The Caps had a different “look” in this game, though, that goes beyond the level of intensity. Not since the opening game of the season had the Caps shown this degree of willingness to press an attack. Like the first few games of the season, the Caps did a much better job in controlling both the puck and the terms of play. That they out-attempted the Flyers, 60-45 (shots, attempts blocked, missed shots) is testimony to that fact.

Bruce Boudreau is 1-0-0. He will not go 61-0-0. But his team might be pretty interesting to watch, if this game is any indication of the style he intends to impose on the club.

Photos: Jim McIsaac/Getty Images, Rusty Kennedy/AP

Change

"If you would attain to what you are not yet, you must always be displeased by what you are. For where you are pleased with yourself there you have remained. Keep adding, keep walking, keep advancing."

-- Saint Augustine

Glen Hanlon has spent 751 games in the NHL as a player and a coach, most of that in service of teams that struggled on the ice. But Hanlon is certainly no loser, despite what you might read into what is being posted on some fan sites on this holiday. Hanlon, who was relieved of his duties today after last night’s 5-1 loss to the Atlanta Thrashers, was probably the right guy to oversee the Capitals as it took its first tentative steps out of the depths of its struggles in 2003-2004. His even-keel disposition and patience with a club that would have had Casey Stengel repeating his plaintive question, “can’t anybody here play this game?” allowed some of the younger guys the chance to get their legs under them at the highest level of play.

For whatever reason, though, Hanlon seemed ill-suited to the next phase in the Caps’ development. A club with as much talent – at least on paper – as this might not be a bona-fide Stanley Cup contender, but they had no business being 6-14-1 and on a pace for their worst season in 30 years. The match was no longer there between what the club needed and what Hanlon could provide.

For the Caps, it falls now to Bruce Boudreau to make some sense out of this club. The Hershey headmaster gets his first NHL gig in a difficult circumstance, but therein lies an opportunity. He has the title of “interim” head coach, and one can’t know if that means “until the Caps hire a full time replacement shortly,” or if he’ll hold that title for the rest of the year. Should it be the latter, the playoffs are a long shot at best, but if he can bring this club to respectability and at least give fans a reason to be optimistic at year end, he will more than have done his job. The underlying concern though, is that this will be the third consecutive AHL coach hired to take the reins here. We’ll admit to harboring that concern. But after thinking about it and reading what Mike Vogel had to say about it, we think it important to look at Boudreau’s record on its own:

- He has never failed to make the playoffs in eight seasons behind an AHL bench.
- He has five consecutive 40-or-more win seasons coming into 2007-2008.
- He has two 50-plus win seasons in his last three years as a head coach in the AHL.
- He has an ECHL and AHL title in his resume.
- Only once in eight seasons in the AHL did he have a sub-.500 record…his first year, coaching at Lowell.

If someone can make this situation work, it is Boudreau.

In Glen Hanlon, the Caps lost the services of a coach who exhibited decency and a concern for his players. There are coaches in this league who might have been inclined to throw a player under the bus in an effort to promote himself or to save his job. Hanlon, to his credit, was not that coach. He would express his displeasure with players in ways that mattered – cutting back on their ice time or having them take a seat in the press box – but never did he call out his players in public. He was a player’s coach and should not be faulted if what was called for this year was a sterner hand.

In Bruce Boudreau, the Caps get a winner, a coach who has accomplished all there is to accomplish at the minor league level. He arrives at a crossroads for the club. Many of the players that make up the core of the “rebuild” played for Boudreau at Hershey and succeeded under his direction. Whether those players – or Boudreau, for that matter – can recapture that magic is going to go a long way to determining whether the future is bright, or just a mirage.

To both Glen and Bruce, good luck.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Thrashers, November 21st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Well, Caps fans, here we are on the eve of Thanksgiving, and we’re finding it a little hard to be thankful, at least hockey-wise.

But fear not…we have with us one of the great hockey minds of the modern era to help us navigate our way through these discouraging times. Let’s sit down with…Dr. Seuss.
Doc, welcome…we’re very happy to have you here to answer a few questions for us…

“Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple.”

Well, first, to what do you attribute this disappointing start by the Caps?

“I'm sorry to say so but, sadly it's true that bang-ups and hang-ups can happen to you.”

So, you see this as a matter of injuries…do you think they can recover from this slow start? Do you think they have to look at things with a little more urgency?

“How did it get so late so soon? It’s night before its afternoon. December is here before its June. My goodness how the time has flewn. How did it get so late so soon?”

They had that fine start to the season – the three-game opening winning streak. What was different then, compared to now?

“When they played they really played. And when they worked they really worked.”

Some fans think that the Caps need to be a little nastier in their play, that they are letting teams take too many liberties with them. What do you think their attitude should be when opponents start getting chippy?

“I have heard there are troubles of more than one kind. Some come from ahead and some come from behind. But I've bought a big bat. I'm all ready you see. Now my troubles are going to have troubles with me!”

It’s a long way to get into the top eight…the old cliché has it that teams in that position need to take them one at a time. How do you keep a sense of optimism in that situation?

“Today was good. Today was fun. Tomorrow is another one.”

Coach Glen Hanlon is having a tough time of his own right now…what would you say to him?

“You have brains in your head. You have feet in your shoes. You can steer yourself in any direction you choose. You're on your own. And you know what you know. You are the guy who'll decide where to go.”

Strategy-wise, the club seems a bit lost. They have a lot of skill, but they’re not really displaying it much…what would you change?

“Think left and think right and think low and think high. Oh, the things you can think up if only you try!”

If you could step into the locker room and give the boys some encouragement, what would you tell them?

“Will you succeed? Yes indeed, yes indeed! Ninety-eight and three-quarters percent guaranteed.”

Well, Doc…you’ve given all of us a lot to think about. As for the game, the Caps host another divisional rival – the Atlanta Thrashers – which presents both an opportunity and a problem. The opportunity is, of course, the chance to earn two points at the expense of a team in their division. The problem is that while the Caps won their first three divisional games this season, they are winless in their last six games against Southeast Division rivals (0-5-1). So it is with more than a little trepidation that we look at what Atlanta brings to the table.

It’s been a tale of two seasons for the Thrashers. In the first – an 0-6-0 start that got head coach Bob Hartley a pink slip – the Thrashers made up for inconsistent offense with a ghastly defense. They were shut out twice, scored more than two goals just once, and were 2-for-26 (7.7 percent) on the power play. On the other side, they didn’t hold any opponent to fewer than three goals, gave up an average of more than 34 shots a game, and allowed 10 power play goals in 35 shorthanded situations (71.4 percent penalty killing). They did not happen about their record by accident.

Since then…

The Thrashers are 10-4-0, they’ve scored 47 goals in those 14 games – scoring more than three goals six times – and their power play is succeeding at a 18.5 percent rate. Defensively, they still are a work in progress, but in their recent 6-1-0 stretch they have held opponents to two goals or fewer four times. With respect to the latter, the result is in large part a product of surprisingly effective play out of Ondrej Pavelec and Johan Hedberg in goal, getting playing time as Kari Lehtonen, who only returned to practice with the club this past Sunday after suffering a groin injury against the Rangers last month, has been on the shelf.

Pavelec won the first three games of this seven-game stretch (including a 31-save effort against the Caps in a 2-1 overtime win) before tumbling a bit and giving up five goals in a 5-3 loss to Carolina. Hedberg stepped in and won the last three, stopping 67 of 72 shots in the process and recording a shutout of the Hurricanes.

On the offensive side of the ledger, if there a term more descriptive than “hot” to describe Ilya Kovalchuk?

...blistering?....scorching?...sizzling?...blazing? He has 11 goals in his last eight games. That’s a pace for a 113-goal season, which if memory serves would be a record. But it’s not as if Marian Hossa isn’t in his rear-view mirror, either. Hossa has seven goals in those same eight games. Lurking in the weeds is Todd White, who is 3-5-8 in his last seven games, himself.

Atlanta’s recipe for their recent success has been simple. The goalies keep the club in games long enough for Kovalchuk and Hossa to find the back of the net – those two have 18 of the Thrashers last 29 goals.

Fortunately…well, maybe…the Caps’ problems haven’t been as much on defense as they have on offense. But Alexander Ovechkin and Alexander Semin aren’t exactly chopped herring in the goal-scoring department themselves. For the Thrashers, it’ll be six of one, half a dozen of the other in terms of who gets the start in goal, if Lehtonen’s return is delayed any further. Hedberg has the advantage of familiarity with and a decent enough record against the Caps, but Pavelec played extremely well in what was his only career appearance against Washington.

Half a dozen…hmm…

It’ll be an entertaining game, with ups and downs and subplots and scary moments, but it’ll provide some interesting conversation around the Thanksgiving tables of Caps fans. Y’all can talk about the hat trick for Ovechkin when you’re passing the candied yams…

Caps 6 – Thrashers 4

…and with that, we’re probably going to be away for a few days doing some holiday festivizing of our own. In the meantime, Happy Thanksgiving, Caps Nation.

It wasn't supposed to be like this, either...

Kate McGovern over at Off Wing Opinion caught the Caps' season in a single image...

Caps fans, not to mention Alex Ovechkin, might harbor the hope that the joy will be so much sweeter for having endured the struggles. Right now, it's not much consolation.

It wasn't supposed to be like this...

This morning, the Washington Capitals are 23rd in the league on the power play (14.6 percent). Since going 2-for-5 with the man advantage in their 7-1 win at Toronto on October 29th (and isn't that starting to look like this year's high-water mark?), they are 4-for-33 (12.1 percent).

Why? Well, there isn't a single factor to which you could point and say, "there, that's the reason." But an important consideration in the Caps' woes appears in James Mirtle's blog entry on power players. See if you can find it...

Zero, Zip, Nada...No Points Tonight: Panthers 4 - Caps 3

Well…it wasn’t Brian Sutherby.

The Caps dealt the 25-year old forward earlier in the day to the Anaheim Ducks for a second round pick in the 2009 draft – a move accompanying the return of Alexander Semin from the injured reserve list.

Neither move shook the Caps from the nosedive they have taken since opening the year with three wins. The Florida Panthers were the latest to find rejuvenation in the healing waters of Verizon Center, beating the Caps, 4-3. The loss sent the Caps to a 2-6-0 record on home ice and 3-13-1 since that opening three-fer.

It was just another case of guys counted on to provide results not getting any. To wit…

-- Matt Pettinger had his ninth straight game without a point. It’s starting to show in his ice time. In his last six games, he’s taken 28-23-19-19-17-19 shifts. Tonight…12:37 in ice time. He took five shifts totaling barely three minutes in the third period.

-- Boyd Gordon extended his own goalless streak to nine games (he has one assist in that stretch). He skated less than did Pettinger – 18 shifts for 10:19. He had two shifts in the third totaling 35 seconds, both times to take a faceoff.

-- John Erskine is in the lineup to provide a physical presence. He was credited with one hit. Of course, he only had 6:31 worth of ice time, himself.

-- The defense, in general, simply permitted Florida too much freedom in front of the Capital net. The failure to compete in front of Kolzig could be credited with leading to the first three of the Panthers’ goals – a redirect by David Booth on the first goal, an inability to clear the crease – creating enough chaos in front of Kolzig to permit Kamil Kreps to swoop in unchecked to whack home the second goal, and Richard Zednik walking past Tom Poti to charge the net and create a chance for Olli Jokinen to finish. About the only two guys on defense who had a decent game were Shaone Morrisonn and Milan Jurcina. Jurcina, of course, didn’t dress.

There were three themes tonight…first, the short bench. Five skaters had fewer than a dozen minutes, and Tom Poti had more than 30 himself. Brian Pothier, who shouldn’t be getting more than 20 on the best of nights, had more than 25. Alex Ovechkin also had more than 25, and we’re guessing the game plan didn’t call for Alexander Semin to be getting more than 18 in his first game back after a long hiatus.

The second theme was the lack of coordination…this has become a difficult team to watch. How a team with this much talent (on paper) can look like plow horses on offense is one of the great mysteries of this season so far. They look like an uncoordinated bunch of plodders. What offense Alex Ovechkin is able to generate is just that – offense he generates. There is an absence of deft passing that leads to a chance. And it is a club that treats the front of the net as if it was plutonium. There are few ugly goals in the Caps’ body of work this year.

But one of them came during the usual third act of a Caps game this year – the desperate minutes of the third period that allows the team to climb to within a goal, but no further. Chris Clark’s goal with 6:25 to play in the third was as close as one comes to an “ugly” goal for the Caps, sweeping in a loose puck from the top of the crease.

It’s past getting old. It’s become routine, and that’s a really bad sign. There are those who might look at injuries, a bad bounce here or there, or bad ice, or a goaltender having a good night. But this club doesn’t do the things it needs to do at either end – keeping their own crease clear or crashing the other team’s crease – to fight through their problems. They seem to want to do things with “skill,” but they aren’t succeeding at that kind of game, either. And there is no clearer example of that failure than what the Caps have done on 5-on-3 power plays. They butchered another one tonight, before they dug themselves into a big hole. We don’t care if they’re playing on gravel, there is too much talent here to be this inept at this phase of the game, and it’s killing them.

And, with Florida winning this game upon scoring first, it marked the 11^th time in 12 games that the Caps have lost when yielding the first goal. It is the worst such record in the league.

When a club like Florida – one that has struggled on the road (2-8-1 coming into this game) and does not have the talent the Caps have – looks like the more purposeful and accomplished team, there is a big, big problem.

That playoff meter over there has been stuck in the low teens for quite a while now – the Caps being 1-7-1 in their last eight games. It’s hard to scare up much in terms of optimism in the cold light of that record. It puts one in the mind of using this...

Brian Sutherby to Anaheim

Canadian Press is reporting that the Capitals have dealt Brian Sutherby to the Anaheim Ducks for a 2nd round pick in the 2009 entry draft.

A move had to be made to accommodate the return of Alexander Semin to the Capitals' lineup. This comes as something as perhaps a mild surprise, and in a way it isn't, either.

Sutherby -- the 26th overall pick in the 2000 draft -- was pegged early on as a potential captain for the Caps. He gave an indication early on that the vision for him was achievable, winning the most valuable player in the 2003 Young Stars game held during All Star game festivities that year.

But Sutherby was bitten by the injury bug, splitting only 36 games between Washington and Portland of the AHL the following year, and playing only 53 games in Portland in 2004-2005 during the NHL lockout.

He was healthy for the 2005-2006 season and put up his best offensive numbers in his NHL career: 14-16-30 in 76 games. However, last year he regressed, amassing barely half the points he registered the previous year. This year, it was clear he did not figure in the club's long term plans any longer, playing only five games and registering a single goal.

From a young star once billed as a "bigger Michael Peca," he leaves the Capitals struggling to find playing time. In that respect the move is not a surprise. If one looks at the Capitals' forwards, he has been passed among the checking forwards by Boyd Gordon, David Steckel, and Brooks Laich. As an energy forward, one might argue that even Chris Bourque was poised to pass him on the depth chart.

We hope Brian finds the success in Anaheim that he could not seem to find in Washington.

The Peerless Prognsoticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Panthers, November 19th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Tonight, the Caps return home – something less than triumphant, to be sure – to take on the Florida Panthers in a Southeast Showdown, a Marquee Matchup, a Riveting Rivalry. But there are bigger questions than a mere game…there are “issues,” and who better to debate them than the veteran pundits of weekend late-night…Dan and Jane, in our “Point/Counterpoint” segment...welcome, folks. Your first issue is, “should the Capitals be concerned with playoffs at this point?”

Dan, the Capitals have no more business being concerned with playoffs than I do in seeing 8-by-10 glossies of you in a Speedo. They are 6-12-1 and sinking like a puck in a tub. They haven’t had a winning sreak – so much as two wins in a row – since early October. They have all they can do to focus on the game at hand. It’s just beer-addled, macho jerks like you, Dan, who clutch this idea of playoffs like an ugly broad at last call.

Jane, you ignorant slut…why do you think they play the game? To win the Cup! Only the namby-pamby milquetoasts who have never felt the sting of competition play ‘em “one at a time.” That’s for losers and female commentators whose idea of competition is bingo at St. Luke’s on Saturday night. Playoffs? Of course they need to be concerned about playoffs, you ignorant sl—

OK, let’s get to the next issue…Do the Caps need a change in personnel to get them on the right track?

Dan, you don’t change horses in the middle of the stream, you dance with who brung ya, you finish what you start. The Caps no more need a change in personnel than you need another doughnut, you past-faced, doughy, momma’s boy…

Jane, you delirious skag…firing coaches is as old as your 1970’s wardrobe. Teams do it all the time. Look at the Thrashers this year…9-4 since they changed coaches. Look at the Blue Jackets…doing fine with Ken Hitchcock behind the bench – he was a replacement. Look at Red Sullivan…ok, well, that’s a bad example.

OK, folks…what about Ilya Bryzgalov…should the Caps have claimed him on waivers?

Dan, if you bring in Bryzgalov and sit or send away Brent Johnson, what kind of signal does that send to your team when you cut loose a guy who is playing pretty well and is a great teammate? All it looks like is desperation…a club grasping at straws. And it doesn’t do a thing for the real problem – this team couldn’t score waiving hundred dollar bills in a brothel.

Jane, you witless pus-bag…that was the biggest no brainer since the last time you shaved your legs. Of course you claim him. He is an upgrade at an important position, if you’re going to rest your number one goaltender for 20 games. A guy who has had playoff success as a backup, who is younger than the guy he’d be replacing.

Last one, guys…can the Caps make the playoffs?

Idiot!

Slut!!

Ignoramus!!!

Whore!!!!

OK, well…no doubt, they’re real Caps fans. As for the game itself, for the Caps it is a chance to make things difficult for visitors – something they haven’t displayed thus far this year with their 2-5-0 home record. They’ve been outscored 21-16 in seven games on Verizon Center ice.

The thing is, though, Florida has had as anemic an offense on the road as the Caps have at home. In 11 road games, the Panthers have only 20 goals (allowing 33). Their 1.82 goals scored-per-road game is tied for 29^th in the league. One gets the feeling that first to one might win this game…and that might come in a shootout.

The Panthers are 1-4-1 in their last six games, the one win coming against the Capitals. They’ve been outscored 17-10 over that stretch. Special teams have let them down in this stretch (sound familiar?), particularly the power play, which is only 1-for-12 (8.3 percent). The penalty killers have not been bad – 25-for-30 (83.3 percent) – but getting outscored 5-1 in special teams situations has not been conducive to success.

As they come in to Washington for the middle game in a three-game road trip, Tomas Vokoun seems likely to see the Caps for the second time in less than a week. His 26-save win last Thursday represents his only win in his last five appearances, in which he is 1-4-0. He’s been a victim of some bad luck in the process, in that the Panthers have scored a total of eight goals in those five games. His GAA or 2.61 and save percentage of .917 suggests a goalie playing better than his win-loss record would suggest.

For the Caps, tonight marks the re-return of Alexander Semin, who has some catching up to do. By November 19^th last year, he was 8-9-17 on his way to a 38-goal season. The thing is, though, he was also in the midst of a 12-game streak without scoring a goal. Sometimes, it seems like the Caps are on a similar streak.

Semin’s return marks the first time the Caps have been whole since October 24^th. Perhaps coincidentally, that was the last time the boys scored more than four goals in a 5-3 win over Tampa Bay (ok, they had those seven against Toronto, but that game seems so freakish at this point). In eleven games since that all-hands-on-board game, the Caps have scored more than two goals only three times, and they have only 12 goals in their last eight games, five of those by Alexander Ovechkin. Clearly, having Semin in the lineup couldn’t hurt.

The next three home games are against division opponents, so another opportunity presents itself to inch their way up the standings at the expense of their division rivals. Tonight might be looked at as the first game of the rest of the season (as we have our affirmation moment). The Caps will start Thanksgiving week on, if not a high note, at least a winning one, returning the lack of hospitality the Panthers showed the Caps last week….

Caps 2 – Panthers 1

Chewable Bites

If you are a Caps fan...or perhaps a player or a member of the staff...being 30th in the league and looking up at 14 other teams in your conference might look pretty daunting.

Well, your old pal, The Peerless has a thought for you...think of it in "chewable bites." There are 20 weeks remaining in the season until the season-ender against Florida. The Caps -- 6-12-1 at the moment -- are six points below .500. If the Caps are one-point better than .500 a week -- one thin point -- they will finish the season 14 points above .500...96 points.

You do think 96 points will get the boys into the playoffs, don't you?

Congrats, Bruce...Nice Game, Jakub

Bruce Boudreau won his 100th game as coach of the Hershey Bears last night -- a 6-4 win over the Albany River Rats in Albany.


And Jakub Klepis -- who started the season without a goal in his first ten games -- broke out in a big way with a hat trick.

Results...

Since the opening of the 1999-2000 season, here are the cumulative records of the 28 teams that played in that season*:

Of those six clubs behind Washington in these rankings, half of them (NY Islanders, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta) have been in the playoffs; Chicago would make the top eight in the Western Conference if the season ended today. It is entirely possible, given the Caps' play so far this year, that three of those teams will pass Washington in this ranking by this season's end.


* Through games of November 16, 2007

A NO point night: Lightning 5 - Caps 2

44 seconds.

That’s what it has come to…44 seconds. That’s how much time Caps fans had to cheer in last night’s 5-2 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning. That was the time in which the Capitals scored their two goals in this contest, the first from Brooks Laich on a deflection and the second on a wrist shot from Alex Ovechkin.

That was it.

The rest was a story of lack of ability…to kill penalties when they had to be killed, to finish plays when they had to be finished, and to make a smart play when a smart play was called for.

With respect to the first – killing penalties – Jeff Schultz was whistled for a cross checking foul 1:11 into the contest. It took the Lightning 20 seconds to capitalize as Vincent Lecavalier wired a slap shot off the post and behind goaltender Brent Johnson. The Caps, even when they would scramble to a lead later, were looking up at the Lightning for the rest of the night.

As to the second – finishing plays – the Caps had excellent scoring chances all night…

- There was the chance off a rebound of an Ovechkin drive that Viktor Kozlov had on his backhand with a yawning net and a sprawled goaltender in front of him…he couldn’t lift the puck over goalie Johan Holmqvist, and Holmqvist smothered it.

- There was Ovechkin circling into the zone with speed and the puck on his stick…after showing “slap shot” he changed his shooting angle and launched a shot over Holmqvist’s shoulder, but the goalie gloved it.

- There was Tomas Fleischmann, providing some effective forechecking, taking the puck away from Shane O’Brien and steering it to Viktor Kozlov circling out from behind the net. Kozlov could not steer the puck in from the top of the crease.

- There was Ovechkin, stealing a bouncing puck at the Tampa line just 15 seconds after the Lightning scored their 4^th goal late in the second period. In alone on Holmqvist, he could not get the puck over the goalie’s left pad for the morale booster with five seconds left in the period.

- There was Kozlov in the high slot on a power play, taking a feed from the side board and in one motion sweeping a laser at Holmqvist, who sticked it away.

- There was Ovechkin, eight minutes into the third period, in the low left-wing corner sending a crisp pass to Nicklas Backstrom left alone in front. Backstrom fired at Holmqvist, who stopped the first shot and then the backhand by Chris Clark off the rebound.

Finally, there was the back-breaker of a play – another lapse in judgment. Barely 90 seconds after Ovechkin gave the Caps a 2-1 lead, Milan Jurcina collected a loose puck in front of Brent Johnson and circled into the right wing circle in his own zone. Looking to spring someone going the other way, he sent a pass up the middle of the ice. It was a play seen by Caps fans too often in the past by the likes of Sergei Gonchar, and much too often this year by…well, it could be anybody. It ended up on the stick of Jan Hlavac at the Caps’ line. Hlavac skated in and, using Shaone Morrisonn as a screen, snapped the puck far side over Johnson’s right pad. The play effectively ended Jurcina’s night. He skated two more shifts to close the first, then sat for the last 40 minutes without his blades touching the ice.

The line of the night belonged to, as it usually does these days, Alex Ovechkin…

29:40 in ice time

One goal (fourth game in a row with a goal)

Nine shots

Three hits

Three blocked shots, including two “saves” late when the Lightning were looking for the empty netter

Looking at that ice time – the fourth game in a row in which his ice time has increased – he’ll be spending goalie time out there in a few games. There are mutually reinforcing events happening here…Ovechkin gets more ice time – because he’s the only one producing reliably – the puck goes through him on just about every possession when he is on the ice, he takes most of the shots, and no one else is getting (or perhaps getting themselves) involved in the offense. Take away Ovechkin’s shots on goal last night, and the other 17 skaters had 21 shots on goal. Five of the 12 forwards had no shots on goal, including Chris Clark.

This isn’t selfishness on Ovechkin’s part, by any means. This is what the Caps have been reduced to on offense…Alex Ovechkin and…

If you’re looking for other rays of sunshine in this game, good luck. Viktor Kozlov had all those chances, but failed to convert any of them and finished -3. Mike Green ended up with some of the ice time that Jurcina forfeited and played well…almost 25 minutes, three shots on goal (including an excellent chance not described above), three blocked shots. He was -1, but that was the empty netter at the end. After that…

…the Caps still find themselves 6-12-1. That is a pace for 56 points. If that is what they finish with, it will be the fewest points they earned since the 52 they earned in the 1994-1995 season.

Of course, they only played 48 games that season.

101

Right out of the box in Tarik El-Bashir's weekly Q-and-A over at the Washington Post, a question about the playoffs came up...

Front Royal, Va.: ....Hey Tarik,

...are the playoffs still a possibility, or are we in yet another rebuilding year...at what point do we make management changes?

Tarik El-Bashir: That's a tough question. It's way too early to say that they are completely out of it. But they've dug themselves quite a hole. They've got 13 points and there are six teams between them and a playoff spot. Are all of those teams going to tank? No. In fact, some of them, like Pittsburgh, are going to pick it up at some point. I would have to say it's going to be very difficult for the Caps to make up that ground.

Very difficult?...Here's how difficult. The Caps have 13 points in 18 games. If 92 points is enough to get in, they need 79 points in their remaining 64 games.

That is a 101-point pace over a whole season.

Now, go ahead and repeat the question in your own mind.

The Buzz on Bryz...

TSN.ca reports that in a half hour, Ilya Bryzgalov is going on waivers. He carries a manageable contract ($1.0 million this year, $1.363 million next year), is young (27), and has a sturdy record behind Jean -Sebastien Giguere in Anaheim.

If the Caps are going to shake up the team, goaltending hasn't been their problem, but...

edit...the figures in Bryzgalov's contract appear to cover the 2006-2007 and 2007-2008 seasons (the original TSN story indicated otherwise, since corrected), making him a UFA after this year, but...

Thanks to PuckMan93 on The Official for the directions to this story.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lightning, November 16th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Yes, Caps fans, we must put last night’s excruciatingly frustrating 2-1 loss to the Florida Panthers aside, because today, it is a trip to the other side of the peninsula to face the Tampa Bay Lightning, and “lightning” is just what they’re playing like.

But it’s early in the morning, and we were perusing the morning paper (yes, we do read that ancient and archaic form of media each and every day…uncool as it might seem to some). And two stories caught our eye…the first was a story about new scans of an old critter – the “Nigersaurus” – that looks like an odd cross between Dino, from the old show, “The Flintstones,” and a platypus.

But there was another story, buried deep…very deep, you might say…in the news. It had to do with another discovery, one that will interest Caps fans. It was the discovery of…oh, shoot, let’s just go to the story…

Ancient "Scoring Beast" Uncovered in Slovakian Bog

Bratislava, SV (PPI*), November 15. Researchers from the Slovakian Academy of Prehistoric Studies (SAPS) disclosed today that they have uncovered an ancient “scoring beast,” as they put it, in a bog in the southeastern region of the country.

Researchers unearthed the skeleton of the dinosaur and named it “bondrasaurus,” or “scoring lizard.” The skeleton, measuring slightly less than two meters in length, suggests a creature built for speed. The legs of the bipedal creature permitted it to stay low to the ground – or in its case, ice, given its environment – and accelerate quickly toward its prey. The skeletal structure of the arms and wrists also suggested an ability to grasp implements and to yield them in a variety of ways, perhaps in a fashion where projectiles were shot at targets.

One of the researchers in the expedition commented that, “it is striking how this creature was built for what amounted to a singular purpose – to use its speed and eye-hand abilities to close in on its prey and propel objects at it, probably using fallen branches or other available instruments.”

Research indicates that the discovery is distantly related to the “bureasaurus,” a finding of which was discovered near Moscow a short time ago, and the “mogilnyasaurus,” discovered in the far east of what is now Russia.

Another member of the expedition remarked that, “curiously, the beast seems well adapted to its environment, but also could flourish in this era.” When asked in what capacity, the researcher said, “probably as a hockey player. There are teams that could use a creature like this that looks like it could score some goals.”

Well…how ‘bout that? Before we get to our second cup of coffee, what about the Lightning? Well, they’re on a roll. After losing six in a row, the last five of them in regulation, they’ve snapped off four wins in a row. In doing so, they’ve outscored the opposition 19-5. Clearly, they haven’t been having trouble scoring goals. They’ve been getting them from the usual suspects, too…Vincent Lecavalier has five of them (including a hat trick his last time out, against Carolina), and Martin St. Louis and Vaclav Prospal have three each. Their power play hasn’t been extraordinary – 3-for-18 over those four games (16.7 percent), but their penalty killing has slammed the door shut – 12 of 13 (92.3 percent).

If you’re looking for someone else to look out for (and “look out” might be heard a lot by Olaf Kolzig this evening), it might be Paul Ranger. He’s got a goal in each of his last two games, one of them being against the Caps, and he’s got respectable numbers from the blue line against the Caps – 2-4-6, +4, in 17 career games against Washington.

Johan Holmqvist has been in the nets for all four of those wins, posting a GAA of 1.25 and a save percentage of .958. Oddly enough, the team against which he has yielded the most goals in this mini-stretch…Washington. Yeah, it’s only two goals, but we need to find a ray of sunshine somewhere.

On the other side of the ice…it’s cold. 3-12-1 since the three-game winning streak to start the season. Here is how cold it is…

-- Michael Nylander is second on the club in scoring (5-12-17). That would be fifth on the Lightning.

-- Nylander is second in goals (five). Thet’d be..yup, fifth on the Lightning.

-- Viktor Kozlov’s nine assists, while second on the Caps, would be sixth on the Lightning (behind the aforementioned Paul Ranger).

-- Brian Pothier leads the Caps at +7…that would be, again, fifth on the Lightning.

And it’s not as if the Lightning have all that spectacular a record. At 9-8-1, they stand seventh in the Eastern Conference. But, they are 7-1-1 at home. Compared to their record at home (2-5-0), the Caps are veritable road warriors (4-6-1), but one would have to say that Tampa is coming into this game holding all the cards…

…well, maybe not. There are two Caps to watch tonight. In 29 career games against Tampa Bay, Michael Nylander is 9-23-32 and has three game-winners. Tomas Fleischmann might have only seven regular season games against the Lightning in his brief career so far, but he’s made them count. He’s 3-3-6, +3, and has a game-winner himself. If the Caps are going to get some offense from others, these might be the places to look.

The Caps beat Ottawa with their eight game winning streak in their own rink, the Caps can beat this team in its rink. And you know what?...they will…

Caps 3 – Lightning 2

* PPI...that's "Peerless Press International"

Nope...no points last night: Panthers 2 - Caps 1

Okay, Caps fans, rise and shine, and don't forget your jerseys 'cause it's cooooold out there today.

It's coooold out there every day. What is this, Miami Beach?

Well, yeah…the Caps just lost there, 2-1. And you know, you can expect rough going later today with that, you know, that, uh, that lack of scoring thing.

That lack of scoring…thing. That lack of scoring…thing. Oh, well, here's the report! The Peerless is calling for a "big lack of scoring thing!"

Yessss, he is. But you know, there's another reason why today is especially grating.

Especially grating!

Especially grating, okay, but the big question on everybody's lips...

On their chapped lips...

On their chapped lips, right: Do ya think Charlie is gonna come out and see his shadow?

Chevy Chase Charlie!

Thats right, woodchuck-chuckers - it's

GROUNDHOG DAY!

If Charlie sees his shadow, the Caps will have six more weeks of no one scoring. And one gets the feeling that Charlie has painted his shadow on the ground outside his hollowed tree trunk.

Another day, another Ovechkin goal…and no others. The Caps sank a little deeper into the league’s basement last night with a 2-1 loss to the Florida Panthers. It was another fine defensive effort wasted as the Caps couldn’t find any offensive traction, going long stretches of the game without any apparent strategy or purpose in the offensive end.

For those of you keeping score, Ovechkin – who scored his 12th goal of the season last night – has scored 11 of the Caps total of 34 goals in their 3-12-1 slide since the three game winning streak to start the year. For the year, Ovechkin has registered 12 of the Caps’ total of 41 goals. His 29.3 percent of production trails only Ilya Kovalchuk (30.6) among the top dozen goal scorers (Ovechkin is tied for fourth).

As for the game, it had that sameness to it that has characterized the Caps for the past month…an inability to finish opportunities, a power play that had difficulty entering the offensive zone under control (let alone doing anything once there), and an ill-timed error in judgment that ended up in the back of the net (and that in this case was the game-winner when Tom Poti threw a puck across ice, only to have it intercepted by Kamil Kreps, who reversed field and lifted a backhand past Olaf Kolzig).

Poti’s folly was the only really bad play of the night for the Caps, who otherwise played a pretty solid road game. But the trouble is, Groundhog Day lovers, that that Caps are getting nothing from anyone other than Ovechkin on offense, and that is itself breeding an interesting dynamic. In the three wins to start the season, Ovechkin averaged 19:54 in ice time. Since the Toronto game, over which the Caps have gone 1-5-1, Ovechkin has averaged 22:30. In his last four games, he’s gone: 20:45, 21:26, 24:49, 25:50. Part of last night’s heavy log was the fact that the Caps had to kill off only one power play, but there is a dog-chasing-tail aspect to this, too…other Caps aren’t contributing, but they’re not getting quite as much ice time, while Ovechkin gets more ice time, because the bench sees who is getting goals, but there is only so much he can do as one player, while other Caps aren’t contributing, as they are getting less ice time…It is in this respect that the absence of Semin is being felt. He might be eating up a few more of those minutes in an effort to getting something – anything – out of the rest of the roster.

It might not be that Ovechkin is bearing a larger share of the offensive load than in his previous two years, but the fact that he bears so much of it this year is especially striking, given what is supposed to be the offensive talent elsewhere on this roster, even with Semin out of the lineup.

If one looks at the numbers for this game, they really aren’t bad…the Caps had fewer misfires (10 shots blocked, 13 misses), they were roughly even in hits (18 to the Panthers’ 21), they had a few more turnovers (13, to nine for Florida), they dominated the faceoff circle (winning 29 of 47 draws). It really came down to one bad play…and a lot of plays the Caps just couldn’t, and at this point can’t, finish.

Pretty soon, the only thing "finished" will be the Caps' hopes of a playoff berth.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Panthers, November 15th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE…

Goooooooooooooood morning, NHL!

Geez…Bettman and his new radio gig…

Hey, this is not a test…This is dump and chase. I’ll take a dump while you chase down breakfast!!...Time to rock it from Vancouver to NYC!...Is that me, or does that sound like an Elvis Presley movie?...Viva New York…Oh, viva-a-a-a-a, New York…New York me, New York me, why don't they get a puck and cork me?

Hey, is it a little too early for being that loud? Hey, too late. It's…oh-six-hundred…What's the "O" stand for? Oh, my God, it's early…Speaking of early, how about that goon, Marty Dreiwitz?...I was wondering what you’ve been doing since the war…Thank you, Marty, for that "silky-smooth sound." Makes me sound like Doc Emrick.

Here’s Bucci and the ESPN’ers!...Wrrrronnnng speeeeeeed. We've…got it…on the…wrrrrrronnnnnng speeeeeeeed. For those of you recovering from a hangover, that's gonna sound just right…Let's put her right back down. Let's try it a little faster, see if that picks it up a little bit….Those goalies are going, "I really like SportsCenter. I really like SportsCenter. I really like SportsCenter”…Oh, it's still a bad broadcast. Hey, wait a minute. Let's try something. Let's play this backwards and see if it gets any better.

Goodenow is a devil…Goodenow is a devil.

Picture a man going on a journey beyond sight and sound. He's left his cushy office. He's entered the neutral zone. What is a neutral zone? Sounds like something out of The Wizard of Oz…Oh, no, don't go in there. Oh-we-oh…Go Leafs Go…Oh, look, you've landed in Tampa Bay. You're among the little St. Louis people now…We represent the crummy Southeast, the crummy Southeast…Oh, no! Follow the Hockeytown Road…follow the Hockeytown Road…"Oh, I'll get you, my pretty!" Oh, my God. It's the wicked witch of the north…It's Scotty Bowman!...

"I’ll get you, my little twerp…you and your little dog, too!" Oh, Gary...Gary…What are you doing, Gary?"

Scotty, you old fart. You've been behind every bench except Johnny Bench. Stop it right now.

Hey, uh, hi. Can you help me? What's your name?

"My name's Doug E. Douglas."

Doug E….where are you calling from?

"I'm calling from Flin Flon."

Well, thank you, Doug E. What's the weather like out there?

"It's cold. Damn cold!...Real cold!...Coldest things is my shorts. I could freeze things in it….a little crotchloo cooler."

Well, can you tell me what it feels like?

"Fool, it's cold! I told you again!...Were you born in Minneapolis? It's damn cold!... It's so damn cold, I saw little guys, their little skates just freeze to the pond…It's that cold! Do you know what I'm talking about?"

What do you think it's going to be like tonight?

"It's gonna be cold and dark!...That sucks if you're with a lady, but it’s even worse if you're outside."

Thank you, Doug E….Here's a song coming your way right now…"Cold as Ice" by Foreigner…Yes! Hey, you know what I mean!

..too much, Peerless?

...ya THINK?!

As for the Caps, they get to renew acquaintances with the Florida Panthers, who while no one was looking – and judging from their attendance (28^th in the league), no one has been – have amassed a record just about as forlorn as the Caps…7-11-1. The Cats are 3-6-1 in their last ten and have been pretty grim against Southeast teams in that stretch, going 2-4-1.

The Panthers suffer a similar difficulty as do the Caps these days…Scoring: 2.47 goals-per-game/24^th in the league (versus 2.35/26^th for the Caps). But the similarity ends there. Florida is next to last in the league in 5-on-5 efficiency (Washington ranks 15^th in that measure). However, the Panthers do sport an effective power play (22.1 percent/7^th) and a decent, if unspectacular penalty killing unit (82.1 percent/13^th). In both respects the Panthers outrank the Caps. It’s an old refrain, but if the Caps can stay out of the box…

The guys you thought might lead Florida in scoring are doing just that – Olli Jokinen (9-11-20), Nathan Horton (6-8-14), and Stephen Weiss (2-10-12) top the list. But who is Cory Murphy? Well, he’s a 29-year old first-year player who has spent the last six seasons in Europe, primarily Finland. He’s also 1-10-11. He's also got an injured shoulder and is doubtful for this game. Meanwhile, our erstwhile friend, Richard Zednik -- coming off a bout with the flu-- leads the team in game-winning goals….two! (that would lead the Caps, too)

One would have to think that the Panthers will start Tomas Vokoun in goal, this being a division game and Vokoun having played well (1.82, .942), albeit with bad-luck results (2-3-0) in his career against the Caps.

The simple fact is, Florida struggles mightily at even-strength. They have only five players on the plus side of the ledger this year, and only one better than +1. They have six players (including Jokinen) at -6 or worse.

Anything to add, Gary?

Thank you for that lovely prognostication. That funky stuff will drive us ‘til the dawn. Let's go. Let's boogaloo till we puke.

Uh...thanks.

Caps 4 – Panthers 3

Let's play a game...

Both of these jerseys are all-star game jerseys. One is from 2002, the other from 2008. Which is which?

Thanks to JP over at Japers' Rink for this head-up on all-star wear.

Things we wouldn't have thought...

We’re only 17 games in, but…

-- That John Erskine would have more game-winning goals – shoot, goals period – than Alexander Semin

-- That only seven Caps would have more than one goal…by way of comparison, the New York Rangers – the most anemic offense in the league – have eight.

-- That Brian Pothier would lead the club in plus-minus (+6) and Shaone Morrisonn would be last (-8)…and Morrisonn’s -8 is entirely earned on the road; he’s even at home

-- That Joe Motzko would dress for more games (3) than would Steve Eminger (1)

-- That Tom Poti, who had 32 power play points last year, would have two so far this year (of course, injury has something to do with that)

-- That Caps defensemen would have seven goals…they had only 17 as a group all of last year.

-- That Brian Sutherby would lead the club in shooting percentage…ok, he’s only taken three shots. Among players with at least ten games played, your leader is…Tomas Fleischmann?

-- And speaking of shots…you might expect Alex Ovechkin and Viktor Kozlov to be among the team leaders…but Matt Pettinger (third on the club)?

-- That the Caps would be on a pace for more losses (48) than they had in the sell-off year of 2003-2004 (46)

48 goals

That's how many the Caps have yielded so far this year...

...it's also how many Carolina has yielded.

The difference between 11-4-3 and 6-10-1?

28 goals...Carolina's 68 scored and Washington's 40 scored. 40...in 17 games. 2.35-per-game. Seeing as how Alex Ovechkin averages 0.65 goals-per-game so far, that leaves 17 skaters to divy up the remaining 1.7 goals a game.

That's 0.1 goals per game, per skater not named "Ovechkin."

Yeesh...

What, is it contagious?

In recognition...

...of the end of the rebuild, we offer that little thermometer thing over there in the margin. If the rebuild is over, it's over, and the standard now is the playoffs. And so, we retire The Peerless Improvement Index in favor of The Peerless Playoff Meter.

The former was a nod to gauging improvement compared with the 2003-2004 season, when the Caps were selling assets faster than you could say, "clearance sale." If the Caps had been doing better than that abysmal season at the same point in games, the index would register over 100.00, and things would be "better."

Well, we're past that. Now, it's about the playoffs. And the standard here is what qualified for the playoffs last year in the Eastern Conference, that being the 92 points posted by the New York Islanders. So, like one of those fundraising posters you might see from time to time, we have a thermometer gauge to measure where the Caps are with respect to that 92-point standard. This morning, with their record of 6-10-1, they have 13 points on their way to 92. They need 79 points in 65 games to get there.

Thank You

Sittin' at the end of the bar...

Caps record in Canada: 2-0-0
Caps record in the United States: 4-10-1

Can we have Verizon Center declared a province of Canada?

----------

Alex Ovechkin is on a pace to score 53 goals.
Alex Semin is on a pace to miss the rest of the year.

----------

The Caps are 3-0-0 when Viktor Kozlov scores a goal.
Wonder if anyone has asked him if he might score more…

----------

Brian Pothier is +6.
Brian Pothier has had six games in which he’s been a plus player.
Those six games are the ones the Caps have won.

As goes Pothier, so go the Caps.

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Shaone Morrisonn is on a pace to go -39.
Honest, it’ll get better.

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17 games must seem like a whole season to Tomas Fleischmann…great camp, top line on opening night, nearly plays himself into the press box, gets reassigned to the second line, and now he’s third on the team in goals.

----------

…and in non-Caps news, Patrick Kane at least as many assists(13) as any other rookie has total points. Are folks going to start to call him “Gretzky?”

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Daniel Carcillo is tied for fourth in rookie scoring. I musta missed when the sun stopped in the sky.

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Wonder why the Caps are in the bottom third of the league in penalty killing? Maybe the fact that the top three players in minor penalties taken are defensemen is a factor. Only six dress…leaves ‘em kinda short sometimes.

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The Caps are 6-1-1 when they keep the opponent from scoring a power play goal.
The Caps are 2-5-0 when they don’t score a power play goal themselves.
The Caps have won both games when neither team scores a power play goal.

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What is the difference between 15th place and 10th place?...

...one goal...

That would be the one-goal margin by which the Penguins defeated the Caps (2-1) on October 20th. Had that result been reversed, it would be the Penguins in last place, staring up at everyone else. Bet the league didn't have that in mind for you-know-who.

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If you want to take a booth in the optimism part of the bar, think on this…in 1989-1990, the Caps started 6-8-3 in their first 17 games and finished the year 36-38-6. That team went all the way to the Wales Conference final.