A TWO-point night: Caps 2 - Predators 1 (OT)

Finally…

One wondered if they’d ever win again, but Sergei Fedorov put a happy end to the misery of a four-game losing streak by scoring 140 seconds into overtime to give the Capitals a 2-1 win over the Nashville Predators in a game that was just the thing for those of you nostalgic for those 1990’s kinds of results.

It was an entirely predictable kind of game, from the grinding sort of style the Predators play to the frustratingly frequent shooting with little result from the Capitals. But there were all sorts of nuggets in this one…

- In the Tribute to the ‘90’s theme, three fights. In one of them, Donald Brashear was sent to the canvas by a straight left from Wade Belak. It might strike Caps fans as the sun stopping in the sky to have witnessed that result, but it was the classic instance of the “puncher’s chance” coming to fruition. Belak got the good fortune of timing – his left was timed just as Brashear left an opening. Belak would later take on John Erskine in what seemed a draw.

- The fight sandwiched between the two, between Matt Bradley and Jordin Tootoo, was decided by deft use of the helmet by Tootoo, who employed it to open a nasty gash on Bradley’s nose.

- Speaking of bloody noses, the Predators went all Mike Tyson in the first minute of the game – jab-jab-jab, right hand, as in “shot-shot-shot, goal.” Then, they went all Mike Tyson – late career version – by not landing a punch (figuratively) in the last 61:30 of the game.

- It was reminiscent of a 1990’s game in another respect. The Caps outshot the snot out of the opponent (44-28) and had little to show for it.

- 92 attempts. Nine-two. In 62:20. There are a lot of guys sore this morning…Predator goalie Dan Ellis’ hips must feel like Cream of Wheat after butterflying all night…Alex Ovechkin’s shoulders probably could use some Ben-Gay for all the rotation they took launching 17 attempts. Alexander Semin probably has carpal tunnel problems in his wrists after getting off 19 (that’s not a misprint) attempts.

- The only guys not to attempt a shot for the Caps were Matt Bradley, but he played less than five minutes and probably couldn’t see well enough to find the puck and shoot it with the swollen face he must have had, and Donald Brashear, whose evening ended early when his knee buckled in his fight with Belak.

- How does a team dominate the scoresheet to the degree the Caps did – 44-28 in shots, 92-46 in attempts, 39-30 in faceoffs – and not blow a team out? Well, perhaps it is that in an important respect, the Caps are still mired in a horrific slump. The points were registered by Ovechkin, Semin, Backstrom, Kozlov, and Fedorov. There are five of your top-six forwards. Meanwhile, Steckel, Gordon, Fehr, Laich, etc., were shutout. The lower half of the forward lines did register 19 shot attempts, which is in itself encouraging. But if they don’t start potting the occasional goal, the Caps are going to lurch from win to loss, depending on the young guns even more than they do already.

- The happenin’ guys…Shea Weber, David Legwand. They were out there for all of the game’s three scores.

- So were Tom Poti and Viktor Kozlov.

- Sergei Fedorov… 16 of 23 in the circle. Good thing, too. Nicklas Backstrom had a set back… nine of 24.

- Jose Theodore pitched what amounted to a shutout, stopping the last 24 Predator shots in the last 61:30 of game time. He had his best game in a month.

- Today’s interesting time-on-ice number belongs to Boyd Gordon. No Cap who wasn’t involved in a fight had less even-strength time than Gordon (8:08). It wasn’t even close, really. Gordon had more than three fewer minutes than the next lowest total (David Steckel: 11:15). We’re not sure what this means, other than Gordon’s role at this point seems to be morphing into “penalty killing specialist.” He had more PK time than any other Cap forward, and only five fewer seconds than Tom Poti.

- Speaking of time on ice, you could say Wade Belak’s was “action packed.” 2:08, six shifts, two fights.

Nashville might have been a good tune-up for what awaits the Caps on Thursday. The Predators are a team that can smother an opponent all over the ice. That the Caps got off those 92 attempts is rather remarkable, given the pace the Predators seemed to want to set. And, the Predators have elements of physical toughness (not just of the sort displayed by Belak and Tootoo) that the Caps will face. Washington is likely to get more skating room against the Flyers than they had against Nashville – the Predators’ defensemen are a level better than Philadelphia’s – but Philly will hound the Caps, hit them early, and hit them often.

Kind of like last night.

The Caps won, beat a Western Conference team, and stood up to an opponent looking to use a physical edge. All three have been rare lately. That the Caps succeeded serves as more evidence that they are emerging from their slump. They’re not out of the woods yet. We’ll have a clearer picture of that at around 9:30 Thursday night.

But it was a good job in this one, guys.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Predators, March 10th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

On the road again
Just can't wait to get on the road again
The life I love is playin’ hockey with my friends
And I can't wait to get on the road again
On the road again
Winnin’ games in ways we’ve never won
Makin’ plays that we may never make again,
And I can't wait to get on the road again.

On the road again
Like a bunch of pee-wees we go down the highway
We're the best of friends
Insisting that the season be turnin' our way
And our way
Is on the road again
Just can't wait to get on the road again
The life I love is playin’ hockey with my friends
And I can't wait to get on the road again

On the road again
Like a bunch of pee-wees we go down the highway
We're the best of friends
Insisting that the season be turnin' our way
And our way
Is on the road again

Just can't wait to get on the road again
The life I love is playin’ hockey with my friends
And I can't wait to get on the road again
And I can't wait to get on the road again…

Sometimes, you just have to get on the road again. A different routine, away from the distractions and the duties of home life, where there is the hotel, meals, and the rink. Making things simple. And that might be a goal as the Caps embark on a road trip that begins in Music City, where there resides another desperate team that sits on the cusp of the playoff eight, the Nashville Predators.

This is a team that the Caps and Caps fans do not get to see often. And when they do, it is generally boring, if your excitement is defined in terms of offensive fireworks. The Caps are 5-5-1 all time against the Predators, having scored a total of 27 goals in those 11 games, only four times potting more than two in a game. The Predators have scored 31 in those 11 games. Neither team has won more than two in a row at any time in the series. The Caps hold a victory in the last game played between the clubs, a 4-2 win last March 18th in Nashville in which Alex Ovechkin reached the 100-point mark for the 2007-2008 season.

This year, the Predators are caught in the maelstrom of a playoff jumble that has eight teams separated by ten points (66 to 76 points on Monday evening), ranked 5th through 12th in the Western Conference. The Predators are smack dab in the middle of it, ranked eighth with 70 points. The 70 points is tied with Edmonton and Dallas.

Nashville is not a team that is going to excite folks based on their offensive abilities. But as their overall 2008-2009 numbers suggest, they do have a formula for winning games…




…that formula is to play things tight, get a lead, and choke the life out of opponents. The getting a lead part is fundamental to the Predators’ fortunes. No team in the league has a better record than does Nashville when taking a lead into the first intermission (15-0-1). On the other hand, if Nashville trails at the first intermission, well… only six teams have a lower winning percentage, and none of them are currently playoff eligible.

The Predators had a gruesome start to the 2009 portion of the year – 4-8-0 in January – but they have come on since February 1st. Since then, the Predators are 12-5-1 and just had a six-game winning streak ended with a 4-1 loss to the Flyers on Saturday. That they would find themselves in the playoff mix despite finding themselves 14th in the West on February 3rd is astonishing. They found success by rediscovering what made them successful. Whereas in January they allowed three of more goals in eight of 12 games (losing six of them), they allowed three or more in only seven of the 19 games they’ve played since February 1st (3-4-0 in such games).

What accounts for the turnaround? Well, it might start in goal, where Pekka Rinne has taken hold of the number one goaltender position. Rinne, who came into this season having only three NHL games on his resume (oddly enough, all of them against Chicago), is 11-3-1 since February 1st with a 2.10 GAA, a .930 save percentage, and two shutouts (one of them against Detroit).

Rinne has some history here of a different nature. He was the goalie for the Milwaukee Admirals in the Calder Cup finals of 2006, when the Hershey Bears’ under Bruce Boudreau took home the trophy. It was not a pleasant experience. Rinne was the goaltender of record in all six games of a 4-2 series win for the Bears. He was pulled in the first period in two of the last three games and had overall marks of 4.25, .852, despite pitching a shutout in game three of that series. He seems to have done better since that misfortune.

This is a team of odd names and offensively-challenged players. You’ll not find many teams with names such as Fiddler (Vernon), Erat (Martin), Bonk (Radek), and Tootoo (Jordan), which sound like characters from the end of the credits of a Star Wars movie. And while you’ll find that both the Predators and the Capitals each have four players with more than 40 points, you’ll find that the Caps’ four players also have more than 50 points, whereas the Predators have but one with more than that number – Jean-Pierre Dumont (12-39-51).

In a way, this Predators team is a faint echo of the Capitals teams, circa 1990, when they got a lot of scoring from the blue line. The 1990-1991 Caps team was led in scoring by defenseman Kevin Hatcher and had defensemen Calle Johansson and Al Iafrate (an in-season addition that year) in the top ten in team scoring. Two years later, the Caps would have three defensemen with at least 50 points. This Predators team has three defensemen among the top ten in team scoring – Shea Weber, Ryan Suter, and Dan Hamhuis. Hamhuis is the oldest of the trio at 26. None of this should be surprising, given that the common thread between the teams is former Caps GM and current Predators GM David Poile – the architect of those clubs representing the two franchises.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Nashville: Steve Sullivan

Sullivan missed 153 games spanning parts of three seasons (including 40 this season) with back problems that eventually required two rounds of surgery. He took the ice for the first time this season on January 10th, but didn’t register his first goal of the season until February 18th in a 6-2 loss to Detroit. Starting with that game, though, Sullivan is 7-5-12, +8 in nine games (he does not have a minus game in the bunch). Sullivan is a great story of a little guy (5’9”, 155) fighting long odds to play in, then return to the NHL after a serious injury. In 13 career games against the Caps, Sullivan is 6-5-11, -2, with three power play goals and two game-winners. He has not faced the Caps, however, since netting a pair of goals in a 5-2 win over Washington in December 2005. How long ago is that? Well, in that game, Alex Ovechkin got a goal (some things don’t change), assisted by Andrew Cassels and Jamie Heward. The other goal was scored by Ben Clymer.

Washington: Jose Theodore

On the road, things get tighter, and against the Predators – given their style – they promise to shrink another size around the collar. Theodore is 2-4-1 in his last seven decisions. That record, along with the accompanying 3.45 GAA and .890 save percentage, have to improve quickly for the Caps to have a successful spring. Nashville is not necessarily the team against which those numbers will improve. Theodore has a 3-3-0 career record against the Predators (2.81, .905), but he is winless in his last three appearances against the Predators (0-2-0, 3.45, .890).

This is a game likely to be dictated by defense. Nashville is 25-6-1 in games they score more than two goals, and they are fourth in the league in one-goal game winning percentage (16-7-4/.593). Oddly, perhaps, the Capitals have played in more one-goal games than have the Predators (16-7-6/.552, 11th in the league). It argues for a tight, low-scoring game against a team that is resurgent, desperate, and out of the West – the trifecta of trouble for the Caps this year. Hey, it’s a challenge…

Caps 3 – Predators 2

The Plight of the Division Leader

March has not been kind to the six division leaders. Witness...

- All six have lost their last game played.

- They are a combined 7-13-2 for March.

- Seven of the losses are by at least three goals.

- They have been outscored, 82-63.

- Five times they have allowed more than five goals.

- They are a combined 19.8 percent on the power play (17-for-86).

- They are a combined 72.4% on the penalty kill (63-for-87).

A ONE-point afternoon: Penguins 4 - Caps 3 (OT/Gimmick)

We will stipulate that any loss to the Penguins is anathema to Caps fans – at Verizon Center, in Mellon Arena, on a pond, in a pickup game, on NHL2009.

Done.

But there is a bigger picture to consider. There are no shootouts in playoff hockey, and now that we’re past the trading deadline, that’s the picture to consider. Yesterday’s 4-3 Gimmick loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins will no doubt leave Caps fans with a bad taste in their mouths (the taste of a season sweep having that of honey), and Penguins fans can gloat over one more Crosby-Over-Vechkin result. But when a team has lost three in a row at home, and has not come about those results by accident, then coming out of the slump is of paramount importance.

And anyone who has been anything more than a casual observer of sports knows that the end of a slump is often signaled more playing well than getting the desired result. And despite the result yesterday, the Caps played a very good hockey game, but for three mistakes on defense.

Let’s look at those. The Penguins got on the board first on what amounted to two misjudgments by Caps defensemen. Tom Poti made the first, stepping up on Chris Kunitz at the red line near the benches. Kunitz slid the puck ahead to Bill Guerin, who was now with Sidney Crosby on a two-on-one, Jeff Schultz back. The general thought there is to play the pass and let the goalie focus on the puck carrier. Instead, Schultz backed in, looking to depend more on his reach to try to distract Guerin, but he needed about another foot of reach to be able to poke the puck away. The result was that the defenseman played neither the shot, nor the pass, and Guerin passed to Crosby for the easy tap-in.

The Caps tied the score on a truly boneheaded move by defenseman Kris Letang (who the more we see, the more we think, “nope, he’s not the eventual replacement for Sergei Gonchar” – or maybe he is…he seems to make the same kinds of head-slapping bonehead plays Gonchar has often made in his career). Nicklas Backstrom was doing an “Avery” in front, harassing goalie Marc-Andre Fleury at the top of the crease while marking Letang behind the Penguin net. Letang tried to send the puck hard up the middle, and the only middle he succeeded in hitting was Backstrom’s. The puck lying at his feet, Backstrom backhanded it to Alexander Semin cutting to the net. Semin got Fleury down and leaning one way, then roofed the puck over his stick to tie the game. The mistakes were even.

The Penguins got their second goal on what amounted to a classic, standard hockey play on the power play. They moved it around the top of the zone, and Guerin – who is playing early dividends since the trade – was creating a ruckus in front. It got to where goalie Jose Theodore was engaged in trying to move him out of the way, and that was sufficient distraction to allow a slapper by Sergei Gonchar to find the back of the net. Those kinds of plays happen – although never, it seems, on a Caps power play – so we’ll chalk that up to Penguin performance rather than a lack of it on the Caps side.

We have more concern with the third goal for Pittsburgh, which was the product of the third error by a defenseman. Sidney Crosby received the puck at the Caps blue line and slid it to the middle for Bill Guerin, who was skating into the zone one-on-two, Eric Fehr and Shaone Morrisonn back. Guerin, not known for his happy dance moves, pulled the puck inside, and Morrisonn, oddly enough, stepped outside, as if to give Guerin a free shot at Jose Theodore. Guerin, who is known for having a good shot, picked the far corner of the net to give the Penguins a 3-1 lead.

The best predictor of wins in this league is a lead at the second intermission. No team in the NHL has lower than a .600 winning percentage when leading after two, and the team in last place in that measure – Toronto – has yet to lose a game in regulation when leading after two periods (14-0-8). At 3-1, one would have to have thought the Capitals were toast.

But the Caps started the third period with a power play. It didn’t take long to halve the lead, a product of the Caps’ own classic, standard hockey play. After a shot was blocked in front, the puck came back to Mike Green on the right point, who sent it rink-wide to Alex Ovechkin. Maxime Talbot could not rotate quickly enough to get into Ovechkin’s shooting lane, and Ovechkin wristed one past Fleury to halve the lead.

Then, the Caps took advantage of a line change by the Penguins. David Steckel battled with a pair of Penguins behind the Caps net. One of them – Guerin – ended up tangled with Mike Green, allowing Steckel to curl away with the puck. From the Capitals’ goal line he sent the puck up the middle to Brooks Laich breaking behind the Penguins trying to get onto the ice. Laich almost let the puck get away ahead of him, but corralled it, then faked five-hole before flipping it over Fleury’s right pad to tie the game 1:18 into the period.

After that, it was in the hands of the goalies, and both Theodore and Fleury kept their teams in it without allowing a goal over the remainder of regulation and the overtime. Things were left to the Gimmick, and since we write about hockey, not Gimmicks, we’ll leave that for others to cover.

One would not be able to condone, but could understand, the Caps skating through the motions in the third period. After winning one of the previous 16 periods of hockey they played and down, 3-1, they could have curled up and waited for the engines to spin on their flight out of town. That they didn’t is perhaps the best evidence that they are emerging from their recent funk.

In fact, because of the manner in which Pittsburgh has come out of their own funk recently, one might conclude that the Caps played their game more than Pittsburgh played theirs. Here is why…

- The 22 shots recorded by Pittsburgh in 65 minutes of play was the fewest they’ve had in ten games under Dan Bylsma. For a team with as much talent at the top of the roster as the Penguins, and for Bylsma’s philosophy of being aggressive on offense, it was a remarkable number. More to the point, the Penguins had only 41 attempted shots.

- The Caps, themselves a team rooted in puck possession, won 38 of 67 draws. Most notably, Nicklas Backstrom actually looked as if he was paying attention in the circle, fighting for draws, tying guys up, and working for the puck. He won 11 of 21, and many of his losses were the product, not of his inability to win the puck, but of teammates not supporting the effort when he was tying guys up.

- It was, by Verizon Center scoring standards, a big hitting game. There were 64 hits in all. You can tell things are shifting into playoff mode when Jeff Schultz is credited with three. More on him later.

- The Caps had only 18 turnovers – nine giveaways and nine Pittsburgh takeaways (the Penguins had 28).

- Mike Green looked more engaged in this one than he has in the last several games. Since he set the goal-scoring record, his game seemed to have gone into a shell. He was coming out of that yesterday, even once jumping into the hole for his signature weak side pinch. Fleury made a fine shoulder save as Green was trying to pick the near corner on the play.

- Evgeni Malkin had what charitably might be called a “difficult” day. He had three shots on goal, two of which were passes served on a platter to the blade of his stick that he should have buried.

- The Caps had only ten missed shots. For Team Misfire, that could be an important number going forward. Fleury had his best game, by far, in the season series in this one, making all the saves he should and a few he shouldn’t have. Not all goalies will be so fortunate (especially given the state of goaltending in the Southeast, where most of the Caps’ remaining games reside).

- It would be hard to say any Cap had a truly bad game, even Jeff Schultz. No one is going to want to get on the road more than this guy. The home fans just seem not to have warmed up to the guy. It was getting tiresome yesterday listening to fans in full-throated roar screaming at him to get off the ice, or attributing to him mistakes that were not of his making (like the first Penguin goal). For good or ill, he is now the lightning rod for everything that goes wrong for the Caps, and it does seem to have affected his game. This is unfortunate, because for all the grief he takes, he might be the one defenseman on this team who makes the best first pass in his own zone, perhaps second only to Tom Poti.

Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin are very different sorts of players, but they are alike in important attributes. One of them – and it might have been the difference here – is that when they get feeling all happy about themselves early in games, it is a recipe for trouble for the opposition. In the 5-2 game on February 22nd, the Caps were early, often, and constantly in Crosby’s face – bumping him, yapping at him, jostling him, being a nuisance to him. Not yesterday. Crosby got time and space to work, and for a guy whose game is predicated on taking advantage of time and space, it made for a difficult afternoon for the Caps. That they did as well as they did (he was 1-1-2, +1) was a signal that they played pretty well, but they should have looked at what they did last month and offered the same hospitality.

We can’t get all worked up about a Gimmick loss, even if it is to the Penguins, because if this game is played in April or May, the clubs might still be playing, and based on the way the game progressed, we were liking the Caps’ chances in that scenario. Truth be told, both teams got something out of this game. The Penguins got an extra point – one which allowed them to hang onto eighth place this morning. The Caps got a point they had no reason to think they’d get after the game was 40 minutes old, and they actually played like a functioning hockey team – something that has eluded them over the past couple of weeks.

In that respect, it was a very entertaining game for both sides and perhaps a prelude to an early round playoff series.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Penguins, March 8th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s Daylight Savings Sunday here in Washington, where we turn our clocks ahead because we just can’t wait another hour for hockey to start. And this afternoon, it’s the Pittsburgh Penguins making their second and very possibly last visit to Verizon Center for the 2008-2009 season. The Penguins coming to town puts us in mind of those things you just hate doing in life – those “dirty jobs.” It’s like that show on The Discovery Channel, “Dirty Jobs.” We were wondering how certain jobs in the NHL might stack up on the “dirty jobs” list…


Like “walnut picker”







…or “turd burner technician”












…or “diaper cleaner”









…or “sheep castrator”












…or “slime eel fisher”









Dirty jobs, all…but someone has to do them. And today’s “dirty job” for the Caps is beating the Penguins. It’s something the Caps have done three times in three tries this year, which means that the good guys will be looking to sweep the season series against the Penguins since, well…ever. They could go undefeated against the Penguins for the first time since the 1984-1985 season (6-0-1).

It will not be an easy job. The Penguins come into this game with a 7-1-1 record under interim coach Dan Bylsma. The only loss in regulation in that streak was to the Caps, a 5-2 spanking on February 22nd. But over these last nine games, the Penguins have rediscovered offense (31 goals, 3.44/game), defense (22 goals, 2.44/game, including only seven in their last five games), and special teams.

OK, maybe not special teams. The power play is only 6-for-36 in the Era of Bylsma (16.7 percent), while the penalty killing is only 24-for-31 (77.4 percent). The overall numbers for the year look like this…

Pittsburgh’s eternal quest for a winger – any winger – who can actually contribute offensively has settled on Chris Kunitz and Bill Guerin. The former was obtained (with prospect Eric Tangradi) in trade for defenseman Ryan Whitney on February 26th, the latter in a trade with the Islanders for a conditional draft pick (anywhere from a fifth to a third) on Trading Day. Kunitz has been something of a revelation to the Penguins thus far – 3-2-5, +3 in four games with his new team. Folks in Pittsburgh probably have forgotten already that the winger he is more or less replacing – Miroslav Satan – was waived (and unclaimed), thus paving the way for his becoming acquainted with the charms of northeastern Pennsylvania and the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins.

Guerin, meanwhile, has played in one game for his new club and has an assist. Here is how bad things had gotten for the Penguins and their search for wingers. Kunitz and Guerin, neither of whom at this point in their respective careers can be considered top scorers (Kunitz has never had more than 60 points in a season, and Guerin hasn’t topped that mark since before the lockout), now rank fourth and fifth in scoring with Pittsburgh, including their totals with their old clubs.

That the newcomers rank so high on the scoring list is a reflection of just how top-heavy the Penguins are in scoring, dependent on the considerable skills of Evgeni Malkin and Sidney “Walnut Picker” Crosby. Here is another way to look at it. Last year, for a team that reached the Stanley Cup finals, two players other than Malkin and Crosby reached 60 points (Sergei Gonchar and Petr Sykora), three if you count late pickup Marian Hossa. This year, at the rates they are scoring, no Penguin other than Malkin or Crosby will reach 60 points (Sykora is on a pace for 55).

Under “enigma,” you might find the picture of Jordan Staal. A second-overall pick in the 2006 draft, Staal – only 20 years old – is now the veteran of 229 NHL regular season games. By way of comparison, Washington’s Alexander Semin just turned 25 and has 239 games of NHL experience. But whereas Semin has 101 goals in his career, Staal has barely that many points (109) in his. Part of the problem is Malkin and Crosby. Staal – a center by trade – has been stuck with third line and penalty killing duty, or shoved off onto the wing to get him playing time. His development has been stunted by the presence of his gifted teammates. But like some other Penguins, he seems to have jumped a level in performance under the new coach. He is 2-2-4, +6 in his last four games.

Along with the arrival of Bylsma behind the bench, there has been the return of Sergei Gonchar to the ice. Making Whitney disposable in obtaining Kunitz on the wing, Gonchar has picked up where he left off his career – scoring points from the blue line. Scoreless in his first – and former coach Michel Therrien’s last – game, Gonchar is 2-5-7, +3 in eight games under Bylsma. Gonchar has also made a nice living off his former team. He is 3-14-17 in 14 career games against the Caps. Gonchar missed Thursday’s game against Florida welcoming his second child to the world, but with fellow defenseman Alex Goligoski being reassigned to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, one would think Gonchar will be back in the lineup this afternoon.

Perhaps no one has benefitted more from the change in coaches than goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. He’s started all nine games under Bylsma and finished eight of them (he was pulled in the 5-2 loss to Washington). He is 7-1-1 since the coaching change (2.54, .914, one shutout). But what might have affected Fleury’s results most is the change in coaching philosophy. The more aggressive posture taken by the Penguins on offense means fewer opportunities at the other end. His shots faced has dropped from 31.9/60 minutes to 29.6 in his last nine games and 28.9 in five games (all wins) since he was pulled against the Caps. Fleury is 7-3-0, 2.91, .913 in ten career games against the Caps. However, those three losses have come this year, and he has a 5.55 GAA and .846 save percentage to go along with the losses.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Pittsburgh: Sidney Crosby

Crosby has five points in three games against the Caps this year, but he is also a minus-6 in those games. It is a significant drop in performance from his 7-12-19, +7 performance in his previous 11 games against the Caps. However, he’ll be coming into this game on a five-game scoring streak (3-5-8, +1). Only one of those games was played since his appearance in Washington on February 22nd, owing to a groin injury. Since this will be the first contest Crosby will have played against the Caps since Don Cherry’s turd-burning moment, one should expect Crosby to bring his A-game.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

Ovechkin is returning from an injury of his own – a bruised heel. He also comes into this game on a scoring streak (six games, 4-4-8, -3), and he has points in 16 of his last 17 games (15-9-24, -1). Here is your fun Ovechkin stat for this game – he likes Sunday games. In 23 career games on Sundays, he is 16-14-30, +4. This year alone, he is 10-2-12, +2 in six such games. In his last five games against the Penguins, he is 5-5-10. He having been the object of Turd Burner’s tirade and suffering in TB’s comparisons to Crosby and “The Canadian Way,” one would think he’d be bringing his A-game to this one, too.

If the Penguins were to win this game, it would give Dan Bylsma the best first-ten games record in Penguin history (Herb Brooks went 7-2-1 in the 2000-2001 season). If the Caps were to win, they’d have that first-ever season sweep of the Penguins. Wanna guess which one we think is going to happen?

Caps 5 – Penguins 3

Turning for Home -- Does "After Trading Day" Matter?

Well, Trading Day has come and gone, and as the teams with their new presents find out just whether or not they’ll have months of enjoyment with them, we’re left to ponder…”does it matter?”

We’re not so much interested in whether specific trades matter for our purposes this morning (we’re not yet in the mood for that kind of detailed research at the moment), but it doesn’t take much to figure out whether Stanley Cup finalists achieve that level of result on the basis of having done well or poorly after the trading deadline.

We took a look at Stanley Cup finalists going back to 1981 – 27 seasons and 54 teams worth of information – to answer the question, “how well did these teams do leading to the finals?” In other words, can a team that finishes poorly in the regular season stand a chance of making the final? Or, does a team have to end the regular season with a strong finishing kick to have a shot at Stanley Cup finals glory? The trading deadline provides a convenient starting point, since it is after this point that teams have the rosters they will carry forward into the playoff run.

Here are the results (records are for games after Trading Day; those played on the day of the trading deadline are not included) …

Here are some of the things that struck us about this history of records after the trading deadline:

- The results are consistent by conference. Western finalists have a total of 22 over-.500 records in 27 seasons; Eastern finalists have 23 such records.

- You don’t necessarily need to have the better record than your finals opponent to win – 14 times in 27 the team with the better record won. But you can’t have been limping into the playoffs, either. Only once has a team that finished in the post-trading deadline period with a record as many as three games under .500 won the Cup (Montreal – 4-7-1 – in 1986).

- The 27-season window is really two windows. Prior to the lockout, teams generally had a dozen or so games to get their acts together for the playoffs. Since the lockout, teams have had 20 or so games to sort things out. It shows. Although the events are small in number, all six teams reaching the finals have had a better-than-.500 record, and four of them (the last four finalists) have won an outright majority of the games they’ve played from the deadline to the end of the season).

- As for those last four finalists, they’ve been dominating down the stretch, defined as winning more than twice as many games as they have losses in regulation time. Three of the four have achieved that results, and the other – the Penguins last year – still managed to win 11 of 17 games. That’s a small set, but comparing it to the pre-lockout period, it was done 16 times among 48 finalists.

Let’s get to the happy ending. More times than not – many more times, in fact – the road to the finals can’t be littered with potholes. If you’re not doing well going into the playoffs, chances are you’re not going to last long.

So far, the Caps are 0-2-0.

A NO-point night: Maple Leafs 2 - Caps 1

Now we’re in “concerned” territory. It’s not so much that the Caps – minus Alex Ovechkin for the entire game and Tom Poti for all but one seven-second shift – should not have lost to Toronto, 2-1, this evening. It is that the Caps now have won exactly one period in regulation in their last 14 periods of play, and that came in the third period of a 5-2 loss to Carolina, when the Caps were already trailing 5-1.

The official scoresheet will say that Maple Leaf goaltender Martin Gerber was the first star. We don’t agree, but we’ll get to that. Gerber, who wasn’t on the scrap heap of his career as much as he had already gone through the compactor and was as useful as a door stop, stopped – or perhaps “got in the way” of – 37 of 38 shots to give the Leafs a chance. It was a chance they capitalized on when Jose Theodore more or less kicked in with his heel a shot from behind the goal line by Lee Stempniak to break a scoreless tie in the third period. Pavel Kubina added a goal through traffic created by forward Jason Blake for Toronto’s other tally.

And there we see our first star.

Jason Blake did not register a point, but he was a force all night with his energy and his give-no-quarter approach to getting in Caps goalie Jose Theodore’s face. It was he who ran over Theodore to allow John Mitchell to swat the puck into the net on a goalmouth scramble – the goal being disallowed for Blake’s contact with Theodore. It was Blake who planted himself at the top of the crease and being a nuisance to Theodore that allowed Kubina to send his drive to the far side past Theodore’s glove for Toronto's second goal. It was Blake more than any Maple Leaf who had some real jump in his skates all evening. Blake’s ability to be a one-man traffic jam in front, and the Caps’ inability of unwillingness to do the same to Martin Gerber – especially on the power play – was the difference between this teams tonight.

The Caps actually did a pretty decent job of driving to the net tonight, but they could not finish and did not have enough bodies available in close to bat in any rebounds. There were a lot of pucks laying in the crease that Gerber couldn’t find that ached to have the blade of a stick slide them into the cozy confines of the net, but alas, ‘twas not to be (that Acme School of Creative Writing correspondence course does come in handy from time to time).

Some other stuff…

Points to Matt Bradley for holding his own with Ben Ondrus in tonight’s feature bout. Ondrus has had eight fights in the AHL this year and has had at least ten fights in a season (AHL and NHL combined) twice in his career.

We now know why it is that Alex Ovechkin has more than 100 more shots than his nearest pursuer for the shots-on-goal lead in the league. The rest of the team – or at least too much of it – is reluctant to send the puck on goal. It was in many respects the weakest 38-shot effort imaginable. It was the product of the “skill gap” between the Washington forwards and the Toronto defense, which didn’t really have a very good game, despite the score (although there is something to be said for the importance of results). Tomas Flesichmann took five shots, none of them from closer than 27 feet. Sergei Fedorov had six shots, none from closer than 46 feet (although to be fair, he took Poti’s spot on the blue line when Poti went out after one shift). Alexander Semin took seven shots, only one inside of 30 feet (his goal came on a 39-footer, according to the NHL play-by-play record). That accounts for 18 of the 38 shots the Caps recorded.

Michael Nylander gets a lot of grief, a lot of it unfair in our opinion. Even though God and everyone knew he had a “trade me” sign taped to his back on Wednesday, he played like the pro he is tonight. He just isn’t a very good fit in this offense. That’s not his fault, it’s not Bruce Boudreau’s fault. It just is. He did not attempt a shot on goal. He was one of three Caps who didn’t – Tom Poti (who played for seven seconds) and Donald Brashear (who played for 5:15) were the others.

Toronto scored their second goal with 9:47 to play in the third period. From that point forward, the Caps did not record a shot on goal until there were 52 seconds left – 8:55 of clock time. In that same span, Toronto recorded seven shots on goal. The Caps had three shots in the last 11:56 of a game they trailed. There just isn’t an excuse for that kind of ineptitude.

Considering that the Caps exchanged Michael Nylander for Alex Ovechkin, and that they were short another player when Poti went out early (Fedorov taking his spot on the blue line), 28 hits was a rather high number, especially since Verizon Center scorers seem to err on the side of caution when crediting players with hits. Other than Poti, who lasted only long enough to skate on and skate off for one shift, the only Caps not to record one were Viktor Kozlov, Nicklas Backstrom, and Tomas Fleischmann.

Mike Green played almost 12 minutes of the third period on his way to a 31-plus minute night. No one else on the ice was within six minutes of him (ok, Ian White was 5:59 within Green’s total).

Alexander Semin – three takeaways, no giveaways. While the Caps have hit a skid, he seems to be playing more responsibly lately. One wonders, should we take irresponsible in exchange for wins? Just kidding.

Beginning on February 18th, the Caps embarked on a nine-home-games-in-ten stretch. What’s more, that stretch includes five teams that the Caps would normally be solidly favored to beat at home – Colorado, Atlanta, Florida, Carolina, and Toronto. They beat only Atlanta in going 4-5-0 through nine games of this run with Pittsburgh looming to close the ten-game run.

If the Caps had earned, say, 12 of 18 points so far through nine games of this ten-game stretch, instead of eight points, they would be only four points behind Boston. Call that an opportunity wasted.

It would be hard to fault the defense or goaltending too much in this one, although Theodore probably wants that first goal back, and Jeff Schultz might not like to watch his play in front on film. But that isn’t why the Caps lost. Despite launching a total of 71 shot attempts at the Toronto net and getting 38 of them through to Martin Gerber, they just didn’t pay enough of a price to clean up the rebounds that were available. The Caps had the sort of chances all night that might have had fans saying, “ooh, they were this close (we did it a few times ourselves),” but those were of the pass-the-puck-across-the-rink sort that are high-risk, low probability chances.

Now, the Caps get Pittsburgh, and it won’t be the Penguin team that the Caps have used as a scrimmage partner for three games this season. The Penguins are 7-1-1 under interim coach Dan Bylsma, having won five in a row, and have rediscovered defense (allowing one or no goals in four of those last five games) – a recipe for success at this time of year.

A week ago, one might have been forgiven for contemplating a second seed – perhaps even a run at the top spot if Boston stumbled. And there was the possibility of a franchise-best home record. Well, the Caps now have to win all of their remaining home games (six) to get that all-time best home record, and they have wasted the chance Boston has given them to inch closer to the top spot. They still have an 11-point lead on second place Florida in the Southeast, but at this point the thought of what they did last year to Carolina might be creeping into their heads.

That will make Sunday’s game as close to a “must win” as there has been here lately. And “must win” games against Pittsburgh are not generally the sort the Caps have been successful in winning. It will be a useful exercise to see whether these guys are growing up or not.

Hard Hats and Rock Stars

Over at Japers' Rink, this morning, JP pens an essay arguing that one result of Trading Day is that the Caps face the stretch run and any playoff series having to look in the mirror to find their salvation. As he put it...

"...it's up to the guys in the room, the ones who have been there for the past year or two or more. It's up to the coach who took this team on a damn-near miraculous run last season and has them dreaming big this year. It's up to the most valuable player to show why he won the award last season and to recognize that there's also an award for playoff MVP. It's up to the free agent goalie, the re-born Russian veteran, the future captain, the enigmatic sniper, the Norris hopeful and everyone else on that team, in D.C. and in Hershey, because there's no help coming. Not this year. This year, they're on their own."

And that raises a point touched upon by Pierre McGuire during yesterday's coverage of Trading Day on TSN. He wondered if the Caps had become "too cool for school." We see the matter as one of simple imagery. Is this a team of rock stars, or is it one of hard hats?

The Caps present a hard hat to a player after each win, symbolic of having given an exemplary effort in a victory. It is a symbol.

The Caps have another symbol of sorts, and it is reflected in the video played before the team takes this ice each game. In it, the Caps are made up to look like rock stars with screaming fans left in their wake as they take the stage.

For this season, we're now at the point where the team is going to go in one of two directions with the players they have. They will take the hard hat symbol they bestow on one player and take it on as a team symbol, or they will be the rock stars that look splashy in their costumes and last --snap!-- that long.

Most rock stars make music that lasts until the next top-40 list comes out. They're last week before next week gets here. Hard hats build things that stand for years.

What's it going to be?...Rock Stars or Hard Hats?

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Maple Leafs, March 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It is Day One after Trading Day, and even though the dust hasn’t yet settled on all those teams blowing up their rosters, we’re back to the business of the regular season. And speaking of “business,” we thought we’d look at what some successful traders from that realm had to say on the matter of trading…

First, we have Victor Sperandeo, known on Wall Street as “Trader Vic.” Trader…uh, Vic…uh…whatever…are there any parallels in stock trading that you can share with those of us who observed the carnage that was yesterday’s NHL Trading Day?

“The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading.”

So, you’re telling us that “staying the course” might be better than being the smartest kid in the room?

“Whoa, whoa, whoa… trading provides one of the last great frontiers of opportunity in our economy. It is one of the very few ways in which an individual can start with a relatively small bankroll and actually become a multimillionaire. Of course, only a handful of individuals succeed in turning this feat, but at least the opportunity exists.”

And you are…

“Jack Schwager, author of the ‘Wizards’ book series”

Well, what about yesterday…the Caps were mentioned as potential destinations for Derek Morris, Bill Guerin, and others. Why didn’t anything happen? Gary Bielfeldt, you were big in Treasury bond trading, you have any thoughts on trades?

“Having thought out your objective and having a strategy for getting out in case the market trend changes, you greatly increase the potential for staying in your winning positions. The traits of a successful trader: The most important is discipline - I am sure everyone says that. Second, you have to have patience; if you have a good trade on, you have to be able to stay with it. Third, you need courage to go into the market, and courage comes from adequate capitalization. Fourth, you must have a willingness to lose; that is also related to adequate capitalization. Fifth, you need a strong desire to win. You have to have the attitude that if a trade loses, you can handle it without any problem and come back to do the next trade. You can't let a losing trade get to you emotionally. If a trade doesn't look right, I get out and take a small loss.”

So, you think what the Caps would have had to pay didn’t “look right?”

“If you can't take a small loss, sooner or later you will take the mother of all losses. There are old traders and there are bold traders, but there are very few old, bold traders.”

You’re Ed Seykota…a commodities trader, right?

“Right.”

Mother of all losses…kind of like trading three prospects and cash for the big prize that doesn’t pan out?

“Yeah, on the Street, we call that ‘getting Jagr’d.’”

Brrrrughhh….a chill just went down our spine. Let’s get to the game, shall we?

It would be easy to underestimate the tonight’s opponent, the Toronto Maple Leafs...

- Since January 1st, they are 10-10-6.
- Since January 1st, they’ve been outscored 94-76
- Since January 1st, they’ve had two losing streaks (including extra time) of four games
- From January 1st through February 21st, they were 0-0-6 in one-goal games

- Since February 1st, they are 6-3-5
- Since February 1st, they’ve been outscored 46-42
- Since February 1st, they’ve had a four game winning streak
- Since February 21st, they are 4-0-1 in one goal games (all decisions in extra time)

But if you look at their numbers, you could imagine that this is an opponent tailor-made for the Caps as they try to get out of their home funk…

Toronto gives up a lot of goals…the Caps score a lot of goals. Toronto has a worse penalty-killing record than the Caps (whodathunkit?)…the Caps have the league’s second-ranked power play. The Caps have question marks in goal (or so say the collected NHL pundtocracy), Toronto will be starting Martin Gerber or Curtis Joseph.

Let’s look at that goalie situation for a moment. Gerber, plucked from the waiver wire from Ottawa yesterday, hasn’t played in an NHL game since January 8th. He hasn’t won an NHL game in 2009. Joseph has appeared in 12 games this year. In only six of them has he played in all 60 minutes. He has one win in 2009. Combined, the two are 6-15-2, 3.19, .885 this year.

OK, maybe they'll start Justin Pogge.

If the Caps can’t light this team up and light them up like Vegas at midnight, then the Caps really do have problems.

As for the skaters, Jason Blake has points in his last three games (0-4-4), but he has only one goal in his last eight games. But while he compiled a 10-6-16, +2 record in 24 career games against the Caps as a member of the New York Islanders, in two years with the Leafs he is 0-1-1, -5 in six games against Washington.

Blake had better find some of his old Islander magic, because the Leafs’ second leading scorer – Nik Antropov – is now a Ranger. And their fourth leading scorer – Dominic Moore – is a Sabre. And their sixth leading scorer – Niklas Hagman – is day to day after getting his bell rung by Brendan Witt a week ago. That is 52 goals and 124 points that could be missing from the Leafs’ lineup this evening.

One could say that this is an opportunity for guys like Matt Stajan and Alexei Ponikarovsky, and Mikhail Grabovski to step up. As a group, the trio is 0-6-6, -2 in their last five games. Stajan doesn’t have a goal in his last five games, Ponikarovsky in his last eight, and Grabovski in his last 14. As a group, they have a total of four goals since February 1st.

Defensemen? Well, the Leafs do get some offensive production out of the group. Five of them have at least ten points, although one of them – Tomas Kaberle – could miss this contest with an injured hand. If there is one defenseman here to pay attention to, it might be Ian White. He is the only Leafs defenseman who has played in more than 30 games who has more than ten points (8-14-22) and is on the plus side of the ledger (plus-10 in 53 games).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Toronto: Luke Schenn

Schenn was injured in a game against Washington on December 6th and missed a month. In 25 games since returning from his injury, he is 1-3-4, -9. That minus-9 has been compiled over his last 11 games. He is the rock upon which the future of the Toronto defense will be built, and he will be a good one. But he seems to be struggling now, even while he has played in fewer than 22 minutes in any game only three times since February 1st. He’s getting his trial by fire, and that trial should continue tonight…if the Caps show up.

Washington: Brooks Laich

“I’m a guy who [tries to do everything] too, you know, when we’re not winning, we’re not playing well…I want to do so much to help the team, and sometimes you overplay rather than just keeping it simple.” That was Laich after Tuesday’s stink bomb of a game against Carolina. The syntax might have been awkward at the beginning of that statement, but it worked out in the end. That’s what we’re looking for tonight…the week might have started out ugly, with losses to Florida and Carolina, but the Caps have a chance to right things – or at least start to – by getting a win here. Laich has four goals in 14 career games against the Leafs, and he has two in his last six games overall. The Caps could use some secondary scoring, and Laich is as good a source as any to supply it.

The Caps are taking on the NHL equivalent of a cripple right now. Toronto has moved assets for futures as GM Brian Burke tries to remake the Leafs in his own image of a winning hockey team. Those days are down the road for the team that always seems to think it is a move or two away from a Cup. The Caps have an opponent served up on a platter for the purposes of getting the bad taste out of their mouths of the first two courses served up this week. If not now, when?

Caps 6 – Leafs 3

The Logic of the Bargain

We've been listening to Brian Burke holding forth with the press in Toronto, and it is like sitting in on a seminar in long-term planning. The money quote from Burke was this...

"I'm scared to death of 2010."

And in that, you might see why the Caps did not make a deal today. Rule One of cap management these days is to get bargains, and that means guys performing -- and contributing -- on their entry or early career contracts. If you deal those guys for rentals or players with term left on their contracts, you run a substantial risk. If the cap contracts in 2010 due to bigger problems in the larger economy, and you've moved your young guys for short-term -- not to mention uncertain -- benefit, you have decimated your capacity to get bargains.

Guys like Karl Alzner, Simeon Varlamov, John Carlson, Oskar Osala, Michal Neuvirth...they and others might be contributors in 2010/2011. They will be bargains if they do so, allowing the Caps to keep guys like Semin, Green, and others without shedding other salary and becoming what Tampa became...a shell of Lecavalier and St. Louis with little else underneath.

As Burke put it, GM's aren't interested in the snapshot, they're looking at the movie. It suggests a longer view than a lot of fans have, especially when their team didn't make any deals today.

Another thing to keep in mind...NHL teams are permitted four recalls after the trade deadline. It will be something to watch.

Diary of a Mad Blogger -- Trading Day

The Peerless Prognsoticator is ON THE AIR!!!

We're at Peerless Central on this, Trading Day 2009, and we'll be using this space to chronicle the day's events as NHL celebrates Christmas in March. By sundown, we have every expectation that we'll be a coffee-soaked, donut-stuffed, quivering puddle of blogging-goo, but here we go...

7:30...Coffee in hand, we check the NHL news sites...Pronger is off the market (sportsnet, TSN)...Tarik El-Bashir says, "I think what we saw tonight underscored the Caps' need for a proven goalie to backup Theodore, just in case the No. 1 gets hurt or struggles." At the moment, couldn't agree more. Now I'll go read about what I saw last night...no, I don't have a film library of crash scenes.

9:20...Leave to Larry. Caught this blurb in Brooks' column at the New York Post...

"The Rangers are believed to have been offered Tampa Bay left wing Ryan Malone in exchange for Marc Staal. The answer was no, as it will be to any request for Staal that doesn't feature Alexander Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin or Sidney Crosby coming the other way."

Who is this guy's pharmacist? Only in New York could anyone value a Marc Staal with an Ovechkin, Crosby or Malkin.

9:25...If you want to know how difficult it will be for the Caps to make a trade today, check out this table. Even if 30 NHL team capologists might disagree with the exact numbers, it probably serves as a very useful guide for who can and can't make deals without undertaking some major finagling.

9:35...after reading the Post and Times accounts of last night's game, and listening to Coach Bruce Broudreau's post game comments, I can't help but think, "this team is still too young to win right now." When they get hit with a bit of adversity, they start running around like, well...kids. I don't know what sort of thing George McPhee has in his bag of tricks for today, but someone who can settle the boys down and provide some hard-nosed leadership seems to be climbing on the "top things to do" list.

9:50... "The Capitals may make a play for Afinogenov." Ladies and gentlemen, the proof that Dwayne really is built for comedy, not for prognostication.

9:55...Filip Kuba re-signed with Ottawa. Sorry, Kuba-fans...

10:10...Vermette for Pascal Leclaire and a second rounder. This could be a nice deal for Columbus. Vermette seemed to gag on the arbitration-avoiding contract he signed last summer. 28 points in 62 games wasn't what the Senators were envisioning. This is one of those "change of scenery" trades for him. As for Leclaire?...Hey, why not? It's a gamble, given the injuries he's had this year, but who else in Ottawa's system isn't a gamble at the moment?

Caps Impact...three pucks (of four). Vermette can play center or wing. If Nylander was at all a possibility for going to the Jackets (not likely, unless the family loves Buckeye football), it was diminished with this deal.

10:35....TSN (to Toronto GM Brian Burke): "Do you expect Dominic Moore and Nik Antropov to move today [because talks have broken off with Moore]?" Burke: "Yes."

Would that we have such eloquence throughout the day.

10:50...Tim Connolly, two years, $9 million. Let's recap...Connolly has played a total of 142 games in three-plus years since the lockout. The term "injury-prone" was invented for this guy. If he plays his average number of games per season over the two years of this contract, the Sabres are on the hook for $120,000 per game. Here is a useful comparison... $118,000. That is the cost per game of Alex Ovechkin, given the average number of games he's played per season since the lockout. Gamble for Buffalo? Ya think?

11:10..."Things are percolatin'...BlackBerry's are buzzin'." The TSN boys are fillin' time.

11:15...Pierre sez, "[the Caps need] PANGER!" Pierre sez..."there is some concern...that the Caps are too cool for school." Pierre is just getting warmed up.

11:20...Trade Day held hostage...90 minutes since the last (actually, the only) trade. Let our GM's go!

11:40...Jordan Leopold has been sent to Calgary. Colorado gets Lawrence Nycholat and a draft pick.

Really? Did someone have pictures of Colorado executives with a sheep? Maybe there's more to this deal...

edit...Colorado gets Montreal's second round pick and prospect defenseman Ryan Wilson, in addition to Nycholat.

Caps impact...two pucks. One less place for Derek Morris to land, although the consensus is that the teams focused on Morris were Washington, Philadelphia, and Boston.

12:15...Buffalo gets goalie Mikael Tellqvist from Phoenix for a 4th rounder. We do not think this will open the floodgates on a torrent of trades. Buffalo fans aren't even interested.

Caps impact...no pucks...like a grain of sand hitting concrete.

We just got back from running an errand, and find that Caps fans no longer care about trades...

Edit...if karma is what it is, the slap shot came from Nylander's stick (although the last slap shot he fired was probably when mastodons roamed the earth).

12:35...gosh, where has my head been?...Andy Woz-blah-blah for Danny Richmond. OK. And, Martin Gerber goes to Toronto, Brendan Morrison goes to Dallas, Craig Adams goes to Pittsburgh, waiver deals all. Better put another pot o' coffee on...we are getting sleeeeepy.

12:40...Boston sends Petteri Nokelainen to Anaheim for Steve Montador? Did we hear that right? Virtually a salary cap wash.

Caps impact...two pucks. A defenseman goes to Boston. Whether that affects the Morris dynamic, we'll see. Montador might fill the physical role they might have envisioned for Morris (Montador is a UFA after this year). Pierre doesn't like Morris. He likes Leopold more, and Dennis Wideman is "Morris times ten." Did Morris shoot Pierre's dog last week?

12:40...Olli Jokinen finally gets to play for a playoff team...Calgary gets him for Matt Lombardi, Brandon Prust, and a first rounder. Not only did Calgary overpay, but we're thinking this is one of those deals that will affect chemistry, and not in a good way for Calgary.

Caps impact...half a puck, although this might be the deal to start a cascade of other deals.

1:00...We're listening to Mike, Brett and Tarik on Capitals Report. Very entertaining, very candid.

1:05...Martin Gerber is on the clock...Vesa Toskala is going on IR in Toronto. For those of you wondering about tomorrow night, Gerber is 4-9-1 this year. If the Caps are going to get well...

edit...hip and groin surgeries? eeeee-OUCH!

1:25...Mark Recchi to Boston. Big stuff. The Bruins are doing very well...Montador is a bargain, Recchi will fit in with that hard working style the Bruins play. The Bruins are the early leaders in the clubhouse on value obtained today.

edit...Boston also gets a 2010 2nd round draft pick, Tampa Bay gets Matt Lashoff and Martins Karsums. That's probably a pretty good return, all things considered, for Tampa.

Caps effect...three and a half pucks. The Bruins might be done, which means the Caps and Flyers might be the only targets at this point for Morris, and we still have the matter of where Guerin is going to end up.

1:45...Caps fans are probably panicking right now, but keep in mind that the two guys that Caps perhaps have been most identified with as trade targets -- Derek Morris and Bill Guerin -- are still on the board.

2:00...Scratch Guerin. Off to Pittsburgh. Maybe the Penguins have a winger who at least can find his way to the net without a map and a chaperone.

edit...for a conditional draft pick. We can't help but think Guerin is not a Cap because of a no-movement clause in another contract that prevented another deal. The Caps had to have offered this much.

edit...the "conditional" appears to be anywhere between a third and a fifth rounder.

edit-edit...according to Islanders: Point Blank..."Guerin to Pitt for a 5th round pick. Becomes a 4 if the Pens make the playoffs, a 3 if they win a round and Billy plays half the games."

Caps effect...four pucks. Not only does Guerin come off the board (who a lot of folks thought had already been ticketed to Washington), but this might put a floor under the Penguins and allow them to stay in the lower half of the playoff draw...maybe finish sixth...and play the Caps.

2:25...our scorecard (OK, Sportsnet. ca's Trade Tracker) sez...eight trades so far...17 bodies...seven draft picks, one of which is a first rounder.

2:35...Chris Neil to Florida for...something.

Caps effect...one puck. Useful if it helps Florida keep Pittsburgh from climbing any higher, but the Caps get to see this guy two more times in the regular season, too.

edit...hmm...guess this didn't happen after all.

2:45...Carcillo from Phoenix to Philly for Upshall and a 2nd. Flyer fans will love Carcillo. For a while, anyway. This isn't 1975.

Caps effect...no pucks

Nik Antropov to the Rangers. Did New York just get softer?

edit...TSN says for a second and a conditional pick. Still not a great deal for the Rangers.

Caps effect...half a puck. Some folks might have thought Antropov was coming here. Not a chance (we say as an uninformed fan).

2:55...T-minus five minutes. There are still a lot of guys out there.

2:58...thinking about that Philly deal...is that a prelude to Morris going to Philly?

3:00...it's all over but the announcing...

3:02...Morris to the Rangers. Unless the Caps have put something in someone's iced tea in Florida to get Bouwmeester for a bag o' rocks, we're probably done here.

edit...for Dmitri Kalinin, Petr Prucha, and Nigel Dawes. No, the Caps weren't going to offer that much.

Caps effect...four pucks. The Caps got shutout, at least for the guys rumored to be associated with the Caps.

3:10...Dominic Moore to Buffalo for a second round pick.

Caps effect...half a puck.

3:15...Of the top ten teams in the East, here are the noteworthy additions since February 1st so far...

Boston: Mark Recchi, Steve Montador
New Jersey: Niclas Havelid
Washington: none
Philadelphia: Daniel Carcillo
Montreal: Mathieu Schneider, Doug Janik
Florida: none
NY Rangers: Nik Antropov, Derek Morris
Pittsburgh: Bill Guerin, Chris Kunitz
Carolina: Jussi Jokinen
Buffalo: Mikael Tellqvist, Dominic Moore

3:18...Anaheim gets Erik Christensen from Atlanta for Eric O'Dell. We just thought we'd mention it.

Caps effect...no pucks.

3:30...Steve Eminger, your Southeast Division Ambassador of Love. His whirlwind tour continues as he heads from Tampa to Florida for Noah Welch and a third. These are a couple of guys who combined have 330 games of experience and have -- combined -- been employed by seven NHL franchises. Eminger has now been a member of every Southeast club except Carolina and Atlanta. Blockbuster? You be the judge.

Caps effect...one puck, if for nothing else than entertainment value and speculation as to when Eminger making the complete circuit of the Southeast and returns to Washington.

3:40...Columbus gets goalie Kevin Lalande from Calgary for a 4th rounder.

Caps effect... minus-one puck.

Chicago gets Samuel Pahlsson from Anaheim for defenseman James Wisniewski. Nice deal for Chicago.

Caps effect...no pucks.

Philly gets Kyle McLaren from San Jose for a 6th round pick.

Caps effect...one puck. Caps fans will berate management for not making a deal like this, but please. Pylons need not apply.

3:45...San Jose gets Travis Moen and Kent Huskins from Anaheim, for something... Isn't it illegal for these two teams to make a trade?

Edit..."something" is Nick Bonnino, goalie Timo Pielmeyer and a conditional draft pick

Caps effect...no pucks

3:50...Patrick O'Sullivan from LA to Carolina for...well, we'll find out soon enough, I suppose.

Caps effect...two pucks. Two goals in two games against Washington...

..oops! TSN is reporting O'Sullivan will end up in Edmonton. We're getting too old for this stuff.

...yup, O'Sullivan to Edmonton. Carolina ends up with Erik Cole. Justin Williams ends up in Los Angeles.

We're still here.

Caps effect... still two pucks for that whole "Back to the Future" thing with Cole going back to Carolina.

4:05...Tarik sez the Caps made no trades today, which means Caps fans will be hoping this statement is true..."sometimes, the best trades are the ones you never make."

4:20...Toronto obtained Olaf Kolzig (say 'huh?!') and Jamie Heward, Andy Rogers, and a 4th round pick from Tampa for Richard Petiot. That's entirely a cap management deal, and the TSN guys seem to think the league might not look kindly on it. Points for imaginative thinking.

Caps effect...no pucks.

4:30...and with that odd deal, we end today's look at Trading Day.

A NO-point night: Hurricanes 5 - Caps 2

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention define influenza symptoms as follows:

Influenza (also known as the flu) is a contagious respiratory illness caused by flu viruses. It can cause mild to severe illness, and at times can lead to death. The flu is different from a cold. The flu usually comes on suddenly and may include these symptoms:

* Fever (usually high)
* Headache
* Extreme tiredness
* Dry cough
* Sore throat
* Runny or stuffy nose
* Muscle aches
* Stomach symptoms, such as nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea, also can occur but are more common in children than adults
* Sucky effort
* Indifferent passing
* Equating backing up, backing up some more, then backing up again with playing defense
* Forgetting that a “power play” means YOU have a man advantage, not the other team

OK, we added a few.

Jose Theodore was excused from participating in the debacle that was a 5-2 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes because he had the flu, or at least the first few symptoms listed above. We’re going to chalk the loss up to the rest of the team exhibiting the last few symptoms. Call it “Blue Line Flu,” because the Caps were awful from their own blue line into the goalie. They were merely “bad” over the rest of the ice sheet.

It had better be the flu, because if it’s not, then this team has a backbone check to conduct on itself. Losing two in a row at home isn’t the end of the world. Losing two in a row at home by a combined 11-3 to teams they should beat, and beat handily…that’s another matter.

Where do you start? Well, there was the virgin sacrifice, for starters. Rookie (as in three whole NHL appearances rookie) goaltender Michal Neuvirth had the kind of night that suggested the rest of the team got together in a secret team meeting and agreed to leave him out to dry to see just how many shots he could stop without the benefit of a defense around him. The answer was 25. Trouble was, Carolina took 30. He looked badly overmatched on the first goal – a penalty shot by Eric Staal, who froze Neuvirth with a wrist shot over Neuvirth’s glove – but otherwise was more victim than perpetrator.

Then there was Mike Green. That might have been Green’s worst game as a pro, including his stints in the AHL. The only reason he wasn’t on the ice for all five goals was that the rules of hockey don’t permit a defenseman on the ice when a penalty shot is taken. But he was there for the other four. And frankly, he looked lost…or ill. One might actually hope for the latter (and that it is a 24-hour flu), because if it wasn’t illness…

The record will state that Alex Ovechkin has an assist and 12 shot attempts. That might be, but it didn’t look as if his heart was in it. In fairness to Green, it was Ovechkin who Matt Cullen chipped the puck around to skate up ice and score the Hurricanes’ second goal (their first of two shorthanded goals). It was almost as if he deliberately played in a more subdued manner to shut the likes of Don Cherry up. Or, maybe it was the flu.

Nicklas Backstrom’s 10-game scoring streak came to an end, and maybe that’s a good thing. Enough with the streaks! Unless they’re winning streaks, that is. Green had a streak, and has been in something of a funk ever since it ended. Backstrom went on a streak, and we’re hoping that the same fate is avoided by the youngster. But, in an odd twist that only a game such as this could produce, Backstrom won 11 of 17 draws (64.7 percent).

The Caps had three shots on the power play. Hey, you know what? Carolina had three shots on Caps power plays, too…they scored on two of them.

Staffan Kronwall spent the first intermission telling Al Koken in a TV interview that he wasn’t the biggest hitter out there. Well, he was tonight. He led the team with four.

The Caps had 28 giveaways. Twenty-eight. They had 40 turnovers in all (including Carolina takeaways).

There were actually a few Caps who played decently, if only in spurts. Tomas Fleischmann seemed to be the only Cap with any jump early. He even had a hit (his 15th of the year). David Steckel had five shots, tying a season high for him. And, he won 10 of 15 draws. John Erskine toughed it out, as he was reported to be less than 100 percent before the game. We have no problem with his play tonight (if the club gives out a hard hat for losses, Erskine should get it). Alexander Semin scored a goal from his seat and otherwise played a pretty good game.

It wasn’t even as if Carolina played an especially dominating game. They just hung around wnd waited for the Caps to give them opportunities. And boy, did they. The problem was that guys who should, and really have to play well…didn’t. In fact, they were awful. And Neuvirth is not nearly seasoned enough to be able to put the club on his back when the kind of adversity strikes to scratch the starting goaltender and a top-pair defenseman, while leaving another defenseman playing at less than 100 percent. Heaven knows who else was not quite up to snuff – there was ample evidence that other guys might have been nursing something.

After 65 games last year, the Caps were 30-27-8 (68 points). This team is objectively better, especially since they’re not sneaking up on anyone this year. So again, this isn’t the end of the world. But it doesn’t change the fact that for two games, this team has flat out stunk up the place. There isn’t enough perfume to make that pig smell any better.

Yeesh...

Translation Services from Your Uncle Peerless

Tarik El-Bashir reports in this afternoon's "Capitals Insider" that Capitals' general manager George McPhee "is not expecting the Caps to make any major moves" as the trading deadline approaches tomorrow.

Uh, yeah...right. Buy that if you will, but we've seen this act before -- last year, in fact, when the Caps didn't do anything except get a hall-of-fame bound center, a number one goalie, and a pest, all for a sheet of S&H green stamps (God, I'm old) and a pack of Wrigley's spearmint gum.

So with that in mind, let's take a look at the quotes McPhee provided to "Capitals Insider" and see if we can divine the true meaning...

Quote: "If we can add a little something here or a little something there, we would do it. But we don't sense right now that very much is going to happen with our club - and that's fine."

Translation: "There are 24 hours left to sense something that is going to happen with the club."

Quote: "What it comes down to is making the right decisions for your hockey club, and taking that long-term look. We've taken a long-term approach, and we've got a good club as a result. We can continue to be a good club if we're smart about things."

Translation: "We're not trading Karl Alzner for Chris Pronger, but we're not above trading a guy at Hershey or a pick to get a Derek Morris."

Quote: "We have some terrific young players that took some years to accumulate and we're not interested in giving them away."

Translation: "We're going to fleece somebody."

Quote: "You don't know what can happen, but right now it's quiet."

Translation: "We put a few irons in the fire this morning."

Quote: "We talked to a lot of clubs yesterday, we talked to everyone again today. But I expect the rest of the day to be quiet and we'll see what happens tomorrow."

Translation: "We'll just let those irons cook a little bit longer."

This has been a public service from your old pal, Uncle Peerless.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, March 3rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s desperation Tuesday, which follows desperation Sunday. Why? Well, if Florida was a team desperate to hold onto a playoff spot (they are sixth in the East) on Sunday, then tonight’s opponent – the Carolina Hurricanes – is desperate times two. Carolina visits Verizon Center on the wrong side of the playoff mix, currently standing tenth in the Eastern Conference. What makes this worse for the Capitals is that for as often as they have seen Carolina this year (the teams haven’t met since December 7th), the Hurricanes might as well be a Western Conference team…and you know how the Caps have fared against Western Conference teams this year (if you don’t, they are 7-10-0).

“Why so cheerless, Peerless? You sound like Mopey over here…”

Hey, cuz. Guess it’s just the anxiety over the last 18 game-stretch of the season, the trading deadline, the snow in my driveway, taxes due in a month…

“Whoa, whoa, whoa…you’re so down, you make me sound like freakin’ Stuart Smalley.”

Let’s not be silly, Cheerless…but what brings you guys here?

“It’s the holidays, cuz! Trading Deadline Day! It’s like Christmas without the egg nog and wrapping paper. Gotta spend it with family.”

I appreciate the sentiment, but don’t you think the Mike Milbury mask is a bit much?

“Sorry…just getting into the whimsical spirit of things.”

So, do you guys see any deals for the Caps?

“You mean like the Bill Guerin un-trade?”

No…real deals.

“I didn’t bring my magic 8-ball with me, but…”

“I got it right here, cuz.”

“Cheerless, you’re useful for something other than making beer runs after all…”

OK, so let’s ask a question…Will Michael Nylander be a Cap at sundown on Wednesday?


Will the Caps get a pick, a prospect, or a player?


Which one?



Let’s try this another way…will the Caps get a defenseman for the stretch run?



Really?



You’re not very good at this, are you?



This isn’t going well…ok, how about this…will the Caps land Chris Pronger?



Did I say something funny?



OK, let’s try something simple…will the Caps win tonight?



OK, fine…as for tonight’s game, the Caps come in – stop us if you’ve heard this before – as the superior team in just about all of the numbers…

Carolina is one of those teams in which the whole is more than the sum of its parts. They have one player in the top-50 in scoring (Ray Whitney: T-47th), one player in the top-50 in goal scoring (Eric Staal: T-12th), no player in the top-100 in plus-minus (Patrick Eaves: T-111th). Their top goalie – Cam Ward – is only 20th in GAA and tied for 24th in save percentage.

But the Hurricanes are a team that still has managed to hang around the periphery of the playoff picture, mainly by being thoroughly and consistently mediocre of record. The Hurricanes have one losing streak of more than three games this year (five games, January 8 – 17) and one winning streak of more than three games (four games, Dec. 31 – January 6). Otherwise, this is a team that lurches from a couple of wins here to a couple of losses there.

For February, Carolina was – typically – 7-6-0. Perhaps as typically, they scored as often as their opponents – 39 goals for and against. The odd part about that is, eight of the 13 games played in February were settled by at least three goals (Carolina was 5-3-0 in such games). Although they finished as more or less a .500 team, they were either very good or very bad in doing it.

Special teams in February were just as middle-of-the-road for Carolina. The Hurricanes were 11-for-61 on the power play (18.0 percent) and 40-for-50 in penalty killing (80.0 percent). It’s worth noting in there that Carolina managed to draw 11 more man advantages than they yielded. In fact, in their last five games, they have drawn 29 man advantages compared to 13 shorthanded situations. Had they converted more than four times (13.8 percent) on those 29 power play opportunities, they might have improved on their 3-2-0 record in those games.

Looking at the top scorers for Carolina, one is struck by one thing – they are, as a group, not very good at even strength. Ray Whitney, Eric Staal, Tuomo Ruutu, Sergei Samsonov, Matt Cullen, and Rod Brind’Amour are the Hurricanes’ top six scorers. All have at least 30 points this year, but as a group they are a minus-51. Only Cullen is on the plus side of the ledger, and three of them are a minus-10 or worse. Brind’Amour is -30, which makes him next to last in the league in that measure (Brendan Witt coming in last at -31).

It’s not as if this is a dynamic team on the power play, either, to make up for even strength shortcomings. Ray Whitney leads the Hurricanes in power play scoring at 3-16-19. By way of comparison, the Capitals have three players with at least 30 power play points (Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin, and Mike Green). They might have a fourth, but for the fact that Alexander Semin (22 power play points in 45 games) has missed 19 games to injury.

What Carolina gets that the Capitals do not is balanced scoring from the blue line. Mike Green is having a tremendous year (56 points to lead all NHL defensemen), but no other Washington defenseman has as many as 15 points (Milan Jurcina and Tom Poti have 13, apiece). Carolina has three defensemen with at least 20 points (Joe Corvo, Joni Pitkanen, and Dennis Seidenberg), and Anton Babchuk has 19.

Meanwhile, Cam Ward is giving every indication that his Conn Smythe-winning performance in the 2006 Stanley Cup playoffs might be his high-water mark as an NHL goalie. This isn’t to say he’s a bad goalie, but neither is he the great one that people might have expected on the heels of that special post-season. His 2.58 GAA (20th among 43 ranked goalies in the NHL) and .909 save percentage (tied for 24th among 43 ranked goalies) put him squarely in the middle of the pack of the goalie rankings.

As for backups, Michael Leighton started well – 4-1-0 in his first five decisions. But he is 2-5-2 since, and in three of his last four appearances, dating back to January 10th, he has been little more than a mop-up reliever for sub-par performances by Ward.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Rod Brind’Amour

Brind’Amour’s career numbers against the Capitals are very different than his numbers this year. In 94 career games, he is 38-42-80, +18, with eight game-winning and three game-tying goals. Compare those last numbers to what he has this year: minus-30 and one game-winning goal among only eight goals he has this year. If Carolina is going to make a push, one might think it will start with the captain, and it couldn’t start at a better time for the Hurricanes than against a team Brind’Amour has had success against in his career.

Washington: Mike Green

Since setting the record for consecutive games with a goal among defensemen in NHL history, Green has but a single goal in eight games. Not that he’s been shy about shooting, he has 36 shots in those games. But he’s come up dry, and it seems to have affected him in other ways. While he was a plus-10 in the eight games of his streak, he is minus-4 in eight games since and hasn’t been on the plus side of the ledger since a plus-1 against Florida on February 15th. He is getting points on the power play (five in those last eight games), but appears to be in something of a slump at the moment.

If the Caps have been long since playing the Hurricanes, they will more than reacquaint themselves with Carolina shortly. The teams will meet three times in the next ten games of the Capitals’ schedule, two of them at Verizon Center. The time for unfocused, inconsistent play is over. If the Caps really are that elite team that is going to make a Stanley Cup push needs to do better than the 3-3-0 placeholder they’ve put up in the last half dozen games. We’d like to think they can muster enough effort to weather the Hurricanes…

Caps 4 – Hurricanes 2