Capitals vs. Panthers: The Cousins Weigh In on Game 3

Three games in the opening round series between the Washington Capitals and Florida Panthers are in the books.  For those math-challenged fans, we are not yet at the half-way mark of the seven-game series, should it go that long.  But the Caps took a big step in Game 3, dominating in a 6-1 win in Washington on Saturday.  And if every game is its own story, what was that for the Caps?  The cousins weigh in.

Peerless:  The Caps are up two games to one after yesterday’s win. Do they have the advantage in the series now? 

Fearless: If you are a Caps fan, you know that no lead in games is safe. But yesterday’s game had a unique feel to it.  Things could have gone sideways quickly, especially after the Panthers whacked the Caps in Game 2. An early goal to open the scoring on what looked like a stoppable shot on new goalie Ilya Samsonov, who not only was making his first start of the series, but was coming into this game without a postseason win in four previous appearances.  Then, the Caps missed a chance to tie the game when they went on a power play four minutes later.  It had the look of another frustrating home performance of the sort that has plagued the team all season.  But then, the Caps killed a power play late in the first period, got one of their own, and an innocent looking lob from Alex Ovechkin gets tipped in by T.J. Oshie with 26 seconds left in the period.  Know how many tip-ins Oshie had in the regular season?  None on 13 tip-in shot attempts (he was second on the team in tip-in attempts in the regular season; only four players in the league had more tip-in attempts without scoring a goal).  It was the first of many goals of the opportunistic variety born of hard work.  Marcus Johansson gets one off a shot attempt from Anthony Mantha that was deflected away by a defender.  Trevor van Riemsdyk gets one off of hard forechecking work, mainly by Mantha.  They take advantage of some odd penalty killing strategy by Florida, who had four defenders on the right side of the ice, none within a time zone of Alex Ovechkin for a one-timer.  It was one of those games where the Caps, especially in the last 41 minutes, didn’t waste the opportunities presented.  That is a repeatable skill that is the product of hard work, and in that sense, yes, they do have an advantage.

Cheerless:  You done, cuz?  Or is there a Volume 2?  Let’s make this simple… Caps won two games, Florida won one.  Two is more than one.  Yeah, they have an advantage.  Just don’t get all crazy about it, though.

Peerless: About Samsonov.  His best game as a Capital?

Cheerless: In the playoffs?  Geez, he was 0-3, 2.99, .899 in three appearances before this series.  He saves 17-of-17 shots in Game 2, which was good, but the Panthers already had the game in hand.  He gave up that early goal that didn’t look good, but after that…yeah, his best game in his playoff career by lots.

Fearless: Given the circumstances – playing at home in a tied series, facing a highly-skilled opponent, getting his first start of the series – if this wasn’t his best game as a Capital, he could see it from where he is sitting.  Me?  I think it was his best game as a Capital.

Peerless:  Assuming it is his net now, what, if any, are your concerns?

Fearless: Same thing he’s battled all season – consistency.  Nine times in the regular season Samsonov posted save percentages of .925 or better in a complete game’s worth of work.  In nine follow-up games to those performances, he was 4-2-1 (two no-decisions), 3.69, .889, with one shutout.  That shutout, against the San Jose Sharks following a shutout of the Los Angeles Kings last November, was the only instance in the nine follow-up performances in which he had a save percentage over .915.

Cheerless: Geez…and I’M supposed to be the guy who brings everything down here.  Here’s one.  Missed shots.  Florida had 65 shot attempts on Saturday; 21 missed the net.  They had only 11 missed shots in 68 shot attempts in Game 2, when they scored five goals (they had six missed shots on 32 attempts against Samsonov in the third period).  If they have better marksmanship, is this going to be a problem for Samsonov?

Peerless:  We asked this in Games 1 and 2, and we will ask it again… was there a turning point?  If so, what was it?

Cheerless:  The Oshie goal to tie the game, but almost more for what went on before.  The Caps suck at faceoffs…Oshie won the draw. John Carlson kept the puck in the zone.  Even though his pass to Ovechkin went between Ovechkin’s legs, Ovi went to track it down.  Oshie goes to the net…Alex lobs a shot, not a slapper.  And Bob looked discombobulated (see what I did there).  The kind of goal that plants the seeds of doubt in a goalie who has had his issues in the playoffs.  He was not the same after that.

Fearless: Mantha’s manhandling of MacKenzie Weegar in the corner to strip him of the puck, skate out, and despite Weegar getting his stick in Mantha’s skates and taking him down, Mantha still got the puck to Nicklas Backtrom to start a flurry of shots in front of Bobrovsky, Trevor van Riemsdyk ultimately getting the goal.  It gave the Caps a bit of a cushion at 3-1 just before the second intermission. 

Peerless: The Caps are now the only team in the playoffs with a perfect penalty kill.  Are either of you concerned about this being unsustainable?

Fearless: Frankly, yes.  This was, after all, the fifth-best power play in the league in the regular season.  But the key here might be chances more than success rate.  The Caps have gone shorthanded only nine times in three games.  Only Pittsburgh has gone short fewer times – eight in three games against the Rangers.  If the Caps can play with discipline, they can keep Florida’s power play in check.

Cheerless: I’m a Caps fan…of COURSE I think this is…whatever that word was you used.  And Fearless…let’s not forget, the Panthers were second in the league in power play chances per game in the regular season (3.20 per game).

Peerless: So let’s wrap this up…Game 4…thoughts?

Fearless: Game 5’s are usually the make or break games in a seven-game series, but this one could be huge.  If the Caps win, they put an incredible amount of pressure on a team that doesn’t have a lot of experience facing the adversity of a 1-3 deficit in games.  If the Caps can score first, get Bob thinking about things, and keep frustrating the Panthers into reckless penalties, things will look good for the Caps.

Cheerless: I’m thinking about that cinnamon roll chicken thing they rolled out on Saturday…

Peerless: You are a strange fellow, cousin. 

 

Eastern Conference Quarterfinal -- Game 3: Capitals 6 - Panthers 1

Hockey returned to Washington on Saturday afternoon as the Capitals hosted the Florida Panthers in Game 3 of their opening round series.  The Caps were looking to go a game up on the Panthers, who tied the series at a game apiece in Game 2 with a convincing 5-1 win.  Despite allowing the game’s first goal in this contest, the Capitals returned the favor and dominated in a 6-1 win to take a 2-1 lead in the series.

First Period…

Florida wasted little time victimizing Ilya Samsonov in goal, who was replacing Vitek Vanecek, who started the first two games of the series.  Jonathan Huberdau broke the seal on the game when he skated down the left side and snapped a shot past Samsonov’s glove, a shot that looked of the savable kind.  Florida on top, 1-0, at the 2:45 mark.

Washington was awarded the game’s first power play when Eetu Luostarinen was gated for holding with 6:53 gone in the period.  The Caps failed to record a shot on goal in the man advantage and remained down a goal.

The Caps went a man short late in the period when Anthony Mantha took a cross-checking penalty at the 17:30 mark.  The Caps escaped further damage, allowing one inconsequential shot, and ended up with a power play chance of their own after the Florida man advantage, MacKenzie Weegar going off for holding the stick at 19:27 of the period.  T.J. Oshie made the Panthers pay with just 9.2 seconds left in the period when he set up shop in front of Bobrovsky just in time to redirect an Alex Ovechkin shot from the right point to get the Caps on the board.  The teams went to their locker rooms tied, 1-1.

-- Washington outshot the Panthers, 12-9, in the period and out-attempted them, 22-15.

-- Nicklas Backstrom had three shots on goal and four attempts to lead the team in both categories for the period.

-- The Caps were credited with 21 hits in the period, Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson with four apiece.

-- Washington needs better faceoff performance from their top centers – Backstrom was 1-for-4, Evgeny Kuznetsov was 0-for-4.

Second Period…

Martin Fehervary took a tripping penalty 2:42 into the period to give Florida their second power play of the afternoon.  The Caps killed off the penalty, allowing a single shot on goal.  The Caps, however, went right back to the penalty kill, Justin Schultz going off at 5:01 for interference.  The Caps killed off this one as well, again holding the Panthers getting a pair of shots on goal.

The aplomb with which the Caps killed penalties was rewarded when Anthony Mantha cut through the left-wing circle and tried backhanding the puck past a Florida defender and on goal.  The puck was rerouted to Marcus Johansson, who calmed the bouncing puck just enough to lift a backhand shot over Bobrovsky from the 4ight-wing circle to make it 2-1, Caps, 9:51 into the period.

Washington had a chance to add to their lead when they were given their third power play of the game, Anthony Duclair sent off for interference at the 11:45 mark.  The Caps failed to score on their only shot on goal with the man advantage, and it remained a one-goal game.

It became a two-goal game when Trevor van Riemsdyk got on the board late in the period.  Anthony Mantha got the play started with effective forechecking, then feeding Nicklas Backstrom as he was tripped to the ice.  Backstrom’s shot attempt was foiled, but the puck skittered to Marcus Johansson at the goal line extended to Bobrovsky’s left.  He fed van Riemsdyk in the left-wing circle, and he fired a shot past a pile of Panther defenders and Bobrovsky to make it 3-1, 18:49 into the period.

The Caps got a late power play when Anthony Mantha and Sam Bennett mixed it up after a whistle.  Mantha and Bennett were assessed coincidental roughing penalties, but Bennett got an extra two for tripping at 19:34 of the period.  The Caps did not convert on the first 26 seconds of the man advantage but would have the remainder carrying over into the third period with fresh ice.

-- Florida out-shot the Caps, 13-7, in the period and out-attempted them, 34-11.

-- Hitting has been a thing in this series, the teams combining for 66 hits through two periods.  Ovechkin led the team with six through 40 minutes.

-- John Carlson led the team with 14:50 in ice time through two periods; Connor McMichael was at the other end with 4:42.

-- T.J. Oshie was 5-for-7 on faceoffs through two periods.

Third Period…

The game went uneventful – a good thing for the Caps – until Jonathan Huberdeau was penalized for interference at 8:52 of the period.  Alex Ovechkin made them pay when he took a Conor Sheary feed from the other side of the ice without a Panther defender in sight and one-timed a shot under Bobrovsky’s blocker to make it 4-1, 10:25 into the period.

John Carlson added an empty net goal from below his own goal line at the 15:40 mark to make it 5-1.

The Caps went to another power play when the Panthers were whistled for too many men on the ice.  The Caps applied pressure but did not solve Bobrovsky on the man advantage.  The Caps did add a cherry to the top of the sundae, though, when Garnet Hathaway converted a rebound of a Johan Larsson shot at 19:18 of the period to close out the scoring in the Caps’ 6-1 win.

Other stuff…

-- The Caps outshot the Panthers, 31-30, while Florida out-attempted the Caps, 65-51.

-- Nicklas Backstrom led the Caps with five shots on goal and six attempts.

-- Anthony Mantha recorded his first career multi-point playoff game (0-2-2), fourth of eight career playoff games with points.

-- For the third straight game, the teams combined for more than 90 hits (94 in this one).  Alex Ovechkin, Lars Eller, and Garnet Hathaway had six hits apiece among the 44 credited to the Caps.

-- Dmitry Orlov and Nick Jensen tied for the team lead in blocked shots (three apiece).

-- Nicklas Bacstrom had his 29^th career multi-point game (0-2-2) in the postseason, his 17^th on home ice.  The Caps are 20-9 when he posts multi-point games in the playoffs.

-- This was Marcus Johansson’s tenth multi-point playoff game of his career (1-1-2), sixth with the Caps.  Washington is 6-0-0 when Johansson had a multi-point game in the postseason.  He has five goals in those six games.

-- John Carlson led the Caps with 23:12 in ice time; Connor McMichael had 7:59.

-- Ovechkin had a whopping 9:17 in power play ice time, tenth-highest total of his career.

-- Ilya Samsonov stopped the last 28 shots he faced after allowing his only goal, to Jonathan Huberdeau, on the Panther’s second shot of the game.  He stood tall and was a wall when the Caps needed it.  It was his first career postseason win.

In the end…

This has to rank among the most complete games the Capitals have played in the postseason in recent memory.  Even allowing the first goal, they were the dominant team, and being a veteran group, they did not let that early goal interfere with their strategy of wearing the Panthers down.  This series has been characterized by a lot of hitting, and whether or not you find “hits” an arbitrary statistic, a little too dependent on the official scorer, this does not impress us as an area where the Panthers want to trade high volumes with the Caps.  Whether the Caps can take advantage of their physical edge, not to mention Florida goalie Sergei Bobrovsky’s sudden vulnerability, will be keys in Game 4, even if a lot of eyes will be on Sansonov to see if he can cobble together two superior efforts.

 

 

Capitals vs. Panthers: The Cousins Weigh In on Game 2

What Game 1 gave, Game 2 took away for the Washington Capitals.  The 4-2 win in Game 1 gave Capitals Nation hope that the 22-point regular season deficit the Caps had compared to the Florida Panthers could be made up with experience, discipline, and grit.  But Game 2 was a splash of cold water, reminding Caps fans that experience, discipline, and grit takes you only so far if you can’t finish, not to mention that the Panthers are, well, a really good hockey team.  So, what did the cousins think?  Let’s find out…

Peerless:  Let’s get right to it…goalie controversy, yes or no?

Fearless: Among Caps fans?  Indubitably.  It’s just the normal course of events for fans.  Something goes wrong, blame someone…the coach, the power play guy, the defenseman who coughed up the puck, the goalie who gave up a soft goal or three.  And that’s why fans aren’t general managers or head coaches.  So yes, there is a “controversy” as far as fans are concerned.  Just not this fan.

Cheerless: Fire Fearless.  Ilya Samsonov stopped all 17 shots he faced...gotta think about him for Game 3.

Feerless: Seventeen saves when the competitive portion of the game is over?  I'm not putting a lot of stock in that.  If you picked Vanecek as the number one from the start, he needs to learn how to grow a thick skin and develop a short memory.  Same would go for Samsonov if he started the series and had this result.  Can't do that from the bench.

Peerless: Was goaltending the reason the Caps lost last night?

Cheerless: Five goals on the last 15 shots Vitek Vanecek faced over 21 minutes?  It didn’t help.

Fearless: No, at least not until it was.  The Caps started like gangbusters last night, pinning Florida in their own end, outshooting them, 8-4, before the Panthers scored first.  They couldn’t finish.  They get a goal or two out of those eight shots, it could have been a very different game.  But then, when Florida got two late first period goals, the air went out of the Caps’ balloon pretty quick.

Peerless:  Tom Wilson missed last night’s game.  Did it make a difference?

Fearless: Look, Wilson had a career year this season.  He kind of slowed down at the very end of the regular season, but he had a late stretch with six goals in ten games.  He scored the first goal of the series.  The Caps could have used him on the power play, even though the Caps did get a power play goal.  But it was in the other end of the ice where his absence might have been more keenly felt. He’s not the goon he might have been at the start of his career, but opponents need to be aware of him when he’s out there.  He can still wreak havoc within the rules. But without him out there to put opponents’ heads on a swivel, the Panthers got fatter and happier as the game wore on without that threat. And it allowed their talent to shine though.

Cheerless: Wilson’s numbers might be a bit overrated, at least when it comes to its relationship to winning this season.  The Caps were 13-7-2 in the regular season when he scored a goal.  That’s pretty good, but not outta sight.  They were 2-2-0 when he had a power play goal.  They were just 14-11-5 when he had four or more hits.  They were 11-8-6 when he skated more than 20 minutes.  But they were 25-10-4 when he had a point, so there was that.  Maybe his offense wasn’t missed all that much, but I think Fearless is on to something with his absence allowing the Panthers to be a little too fancy free out there.

Fearless: He’s come so far, hasn’t he cousin?

Peerless: Yeah, he made the Kessel run in less 12 parsecs…let’s move on.  Alex Ovechkin…healthy, not healthy?

Cheerless: Yeah, yeah…two games, no goals, nine shots.  He’s gone consecutive games without goals before.  But he has 35 goals in 73 career home playoff games…the Caps are going to have to have that Ovechkin when they return home.  If he gets shutout at Capital One, then maybe his health is an issue, not to mention the Caps might he heading back to Florida facing elimination.

Fearless: I don’t see any particular indications that his health is an issue. But he has just two goals in his last seven games on home ice since the Caps won the Cup in 2018.  He’s got to be more frequent in finding the back of the net.

Peerless:  Back to last night.  Was there a turning point, and if so, what was it?

Fearless: The four-minute power play.  That could have been an elevating moment, if the Caps could have converted both ends of it and tied the game.  They had four shots on goal, three by Ovechkin, but all of those from distance.  It was a power play that just lacked any sense of urgency, and the Caps ended up being outshot over the remainder of the second period, 8-3 (two of Florida’s shots ended up as goals), and 17-3 in the third.  That power play failure just sucked what life they had out of them.

Cheerless: No turning point, more like turning ooze.  That start.  Looked good, felt good, but no finish.  It was like, wow…that bridge is great…gorgeous…well put together….too bad it’s 50 yards short of reaching the other side.  Too many times, when you dominate early and don’t finish, it comes back to haunt a team.  It did for the Caps.

Peerless: We said that this game might be a “coaches’ game,” specifically whether Andrew Brunette could make adjustments after a loss in this, his first NHL postseason.  Did he succeed?

Fearless: I don’t think “adjustments” had much, if anything, to do with the result.  Wilson’s absence giving Florida less worry, but more the depth/talent deficit the Caps have against this team.  That was the difference.  The Panther players played the game on their terms after the first ten minutes, and they won this game.

Cheerless: Florida won, didn’t they?  So, Brunette had to do something right, even if it was just letting his players play.

Peerless: On to Game 3…thoughts?

Fearless: The goalie “controversy” aside, I fear fans will look at Game 3 as a “must win” game.  I don’t subscribe to that notion until an opponent has won a third game.  The Caps have dominated at the start of both games so far.  Results were mixed.  Now they get to go home, where a team should shine.  But the Caps were just 19-22 (six losses in extra time) at home this season, and they are just 2-5 on home ice in the playoffs since they won the Cup, outscored by an average of 3.29 to 1.86 per game.  That has to change.  Quickly.

Cheerless: I think I’m done thinkin’ for the day.  Let’s just play some hockey.

Peerless: Works for me.