O-duck-in

A holiday treat that consists of a Cap . . . stuffing a duck . . . into the boards.

Shots

I was interested in this morning's Washington Post story about Olaf Kolzig. What interested me was the accompanying graphic (above).

I thought to myself, Gee, top ten in save percentage, and he's still allowing 21 percent more goals (on a per 60-minute basis) than the next highest goalie in that list. Why?

That 35.1 number.

He might be God between the pipes, but at this level of play, there isn't a lot of difference among goalies in terms of the percentage of shots they save (in this list, Huet is about 1.5 percent "better" than is Kolzig). For Kolzig to have a GAA as good as Toskala (the best GAA in this list), he'd have to have a save percentage of .944.They can talk until the cows come home about how he plays better with a higher volume of shots. The numbers bear out that he saves a higher percentage of shots in a high shot-volume game. But in the end, the game has a scoreboard, and the currency is goals. His GAA is 3.00, significantly poorer than the rest of the goalies on this list. It's asking a lot of him that he's likely to have to play better than he has for the Caps to have a real shot at a playoff spot, given the volume of shots he sees. This club needs to find a happier medium.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Ducks, December 8th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! . . .

Geez, four in a row. The Peerless is giddy with joy, verklempt in appreciation . . . or perhaps it’s just gas.

All this winning makes The Peerless want to dip into the ol’ mail bag and take the pulse of a joyous Capitals Nation and the hockey world . . .

Dear Peerless,

I was thinking, now that the Caps are winning, the perfect holiday gift for every member of your family would be Caps tickets or Caps gift ticket certificates. Great seats are available in all sections . . . in fact, some whole sections are available, so cll a Caps ticket representative now . . . please? Pretty please?? Plee-hee-heezzzze . . . sniff-sniff.

There, there, Ted . . . things will get better. Truth be told, folks in these parts are missing the best sports show in town, bar none. The Caps have been entertaining and, more important, successful. Where else around here does one get to see the kind of speed, collisions, scores . . . wins . . . the Caps are dishing up these days? If you haven’t seen a Caps game live – a hockey game live – you’re missing out on the most entertaining 60 minutes of action you’re likely to see. What, you’d rather spend three hours watching guys on TV make left turns? The local burgundy and gold sports institution implode? Hee-yeah…right.

Dear Peerless,

I have a boo-boo . . . the big, mean, ugly hockey player hit me when I wasn’t lookin’ and now . . . now –sob-- I have a boo-boooooooooooo . . .

Look, Briere, enough is enough. Move on, OK?

Dear Peerless,

I don’t wanna…they can’t make me…I can’t do it…it’s too hard, I don’t feel right, my sticks aren’t good, I think my skates need sharpening, the ice is icky, whaa-whaa-whaa.

Jags, you’re the captain. Take a damn turn in the shootout, ok?

Dear Peerless,

It’s going to be the must-see TV event of the year! Crosby!! Ovechkin!!! Malkin!!! Together, on the ice!!!! National TV!!!!! Ya gotta watch!!!!!! It’ll be the hockey event of the year!!!!!!! Bigger than the Stanley Cup!!!!!!!! Bigger than the Super Bowl!!!!!!!!!

Whoa, Mr. Commissioner . . . I got an over-under ratings number for you . . . 0.2. More people watch bass fishing. More people watch bass fishing for bass.

As for the game . . . It doesn’t get easier for the Men in Black. Anaheim now has the best record in the NHL – 21-3-6 for 48 points. They’re about ready to lap the field out west, holding a nine-point lead over Nashville for the conference points lead. Although it is perhaps the best defensive team in the NHL, their offense shouldn’t be overlooked. Third in total scoring (goals-per-game), sixth in 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio, first in power play efficiency, fourth in shots taken-per-game, they make things tough on defenses and goaltenders in most aspects. But here is the big number on the offensive side of the ledger . . . Anaheim leads the NHL in third period scoring. They close out games effectively. Combine that with the fact that they are fifth in fewest third period goals allowed, and it makes it clear that beating them is a 60-minute affair. Given that only three teams have done so in regulation, one would think it is a daunting task.

Well, it is. But consider this . . . the teams that have beaten Anaheim in regulation are Calgary, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles. Combined record, 31-41-14. And it’s not as if Anaheim is gifted in the extra session – 2-1 in overtime, 2-5 in shootouts. Hey, we’ll glom onto any piece of driftwood in thinking up reasons for the Ducks to lose. But defense isn’t among them. In Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer, the Ducks have perhaps the best pair of defensemen in the league. Offensively, they have similar results (Pronger is 4-27-31 with two power play goals and a game-winning goal, Niedermayer is 5-21-26 with two power play goals and a game winner), they get comparable ice time (both around 27 minutes a game). Niedermayer, surprisingly perhaps, has been credited with more hits (37 to 28), Pronger with more blocked shots (46 to 19). But this is a team that is solid up and down the roster on defense. Only three players with more than 15 games played are on the minus side of the plus-minus numbers, two of them (Ryan Shannon and Dustin Penner) having fewer than 50 games of experience each.

All of that almost makes goaltending an afterthought . . . yeah, we Caps fans wish. Jean-Sebastien Giguere and Ilya Bryzgalov make up what might be the most formidable goaltending duo in the league. Pick your poison . . . Giguere, 2.11 GAA; Bryzgalov, 2.19 . . . Giguere, .925 save percentage; Bryzgalov, .909 . . . Giguere, 17-2-5; Bryzgalov, 3-1-1. Maybe head coach Randy Carlyle will take it easy on his old club and dress Michael Wall (1-0, 3.00, .864).

But on the other side of the ice, the Caps have won four in a row. And none have been fluky. They’ve outscored Tampa Bay, Dallas, Buffalo, and Ottawa by 22-11 in that stretch, getting timely scoring from all over the roster (12 players have scored the 22 goals) and excellent netminding from Olaf Kolzig (2.75, .929 over the four game streak). The one thing the Caps have done well in this four-game streak – well, one of the things they’ve done well – is start fast. They’ve outscored their opponents by a combined 9-1 in the first period in the four games, scored first in every game, and led at the first intermission in every game. And, those nine first period goals have come from some unlikely sources – Alex Ovechkin has one, but Chris Clark and Richard Zednik have two apiece, with the others coming from Kris Beech, Bryan Muir, Ben Clymer, and Matt Bradley.

What the Caps have done lately is what they will have to do to win this game – get off fast, get balanced scoring, get solid goaltending and defensive play, and give a full 60 minutes worth of effort (gee, like that’s news on how to win games, eh, Mr. Peerless?).

And that’s just what The Peerless expects tonight, as the Ducks waddle off the ice with the fourth regulation loss entered into their record book . . .

Caps 3 – Ducks 2.

The Morning After -- Caps versus Senators

How ‘bout dem Caps?!

Having opened a six-pack of whoop-ass on the Ottawa Senators last night in a 6-2 win, the Caps have won four in a row, outscored their opponents 22-11 in doing so, and have won as many games in succession as the Redskins have won since September.

It would be hard to find fault with much in the Caps’ game last night (though The Peerless will bet a shiny nickel some folks over on the official discussion boards will try their mightiest). Five players scored the six goals; nine different players had points, Olaf Kolzig stopped 35 of 37 shots, Alex Ovechkin broke two sticks (note to Alex: hope you kept the receipt for those things), John Erskine and Donald Brashear provided pugiltainment, although neither won their bouts (Brashear now has his own video cheer – you have arrived as a Cap, sir), Goat was in excellent voice, Smiley was in excellent tune, and a good time was had by all.

But here was the best part – Peter Schaffer on the Ottawa bench with a white towel on his stick waving it around. It was a response to a penalty (an unsportsmanlike conduct call on Dean McAmmond), but the symbolism was apt. The Caps played about as complete a game as a club is capable of playing against a team that came into the game with a four-game winning streak of its own. They ground the Senators into a fine powder and whisked them away with a three-goal third period to put the game away. One could almost hear the Senators groaning, “no mas!”

Some of the best parts . . .

- LeBron Semin skying for the puck at the blue line to keep it in the offensive zone, coming down with it, stepping forward and leaning into a slapper that left Ray Emery thinking, “there must be easier ways to earn a living.”

- Brooks Laich, netting his first goal of the year -- a real "happy birthday to me" thing with the puck seeming to appear if by magic on his stick blade -- then spreading his arms and looking skyward as if to say, “it’s about $#@&ing time!”

- Dainius Zubrus, getting three assists in his first game back from illness, contributing to a seven-point night for the top line.

- Alex Ovechkin getting ten shots to go with his two broken sticks. And his cross-ice feed to Pettinger for an easy flip into the Ottawa net was sweet to behold.

- John Erskine, who might have made the single most important play of the game, when with the game still in the balance, swept away a juicy rebound out of harm’s way in the crease, just as an Ottawa player was about to pounce on it in front of an empty net.

- And here’s one for a Senator . . . let’s have a little respect for Anton Volchenkov this morning . . . eight blocked shots. Ouch.

The Peerless did not think the Caps would be in this game if they gave up more than five or so power plays to the Senators. Well, Ottawa had the man advantage eight times and scored once. The Caps were extremely aggressive against the puck carrier, not giving the Senators time to move the puck with authority. In fact, this was a theme in the first and third periods, which might qualify as the most intense hockey the Caps have played in several years. The first period was pretty much a pack of rabid dogs set loose on the Senators as if they were slabs of prime rib on skates.

Some numbers of note:

- 1:51 . . . ice time for Brian McGrattan. If hockey was an hourly wage sport, this guy would be making Jagr-bucks.

- -0- . . . that would be the number of hits for Alex Ovechkin last night. Coincidence? It did seem he pulled back in a few instances where he might have laid the lumber on someone.

- 33/20 . . . that’s the ratio of Washington takeaways-plus-Ottawa giveaways to Ottawa takeaways-plus-Washington giveaways. It is as useful a measure as any to reflect the degree to which Washington dominated the game (well, the score is a pretty good indicator, too).

The Caps cannot be said to have won these past four games in fluky fashion. They’ve done it with solid play and contributions from up and down the bench. But before we get too carried away, though, this streak means that they are 4-4-2 in their last ten games. Streaks are nice – when they are the winning kind – but one followed by a losing streak (or preceded by it, in this case) isn’t perhaps what the club is looking for. That being said, in these four games the club has given more than a glimpse of its potential; it has raised the curtain as to what this team can be – aggressive, speedy, balanced, skilled, feisty, stout in goal. They’ve also been odd – 8-3-0 against teams with 100 or more points last year, 4-6-6 against everyone else.

Go figure.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Senators, December 6th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!

Three in a row . . . whoda thunk it? Against Tampa Bay, Dallas, and Buffalo, no less (combined record this morning without the losses to the Caps, 52-23-4). Another rung on the ladder, so to speak. But the Caps are still on the outside, looking in, as far as playoff seeds go – tied for tenth in standings points in the East this morning. So, there is much work to do, a lot of . . .

“Hey, what’s with all this work, eh?”

Bob?

“Uh, yeah . . . and my brother Doug is here, too.”

“Hey, how’s it goin’ eh?”

What are you guys doing here?

“Well, those last three games the Caps had – they sure were a beauty, eh – we just wanted to see them for ourselves.”

Ted’ll be glad you bought tickets.

“What tickets, we’re gonna sneak in.”

“Yeah, maybe like with a case o’ donuts or somethin’ . . . “

“The don’t have donuts in the arena, you hoser.”

“No donuts? . . . well, what do they dunk in their beer?”

“Chicken fingers, I think.”

“Chickens don’t have fingers . . . “

“Sure they do . . . they can’t dunk their donuts with their beaks.”

Guys?...Guys??

“Oh, yeah . . . so, like, what’s the deal with this OH-vechkin kid, eh? . . . He’s from Russia, right?”

“No, you hoser, he’s from Washington . . . Russia doesn’t have a team in the NHL.”

He was born in Russia.

“There, see what I mean? . . . and you think you’re so smart.”

“Hey, I wasn’t the one who was going to sneak in on a case of donuts.”

“Well how do YOU want to sneak in?”

“UH, how ‘bout with the beer?”

“Yeah, if we don’t drink it all, first, eh?”

Sounds like you two have gotten an early start . . . let’s get to the game. Ottawa comes in a far different team than the one that blew a 3-0 lead to the Caps a month ago today. The Senators are 10-5-0 since that night and are in the midst of a four game winning streak. And, the Sens have outscored their opponents 60-41 over the last 15 and 19-5 in their last four games. That would be the very definition of a team on a roll. It has enabled the Senators to climb from 5-7-1 and among the larger disappointments of the year to 15-12-1 and sixth place in the East.

Dany Heatley has scored goals in bunches in the 15-game run. Overall, he is 10-10-20, +3 in that stretch, but he has four multiple goal games in that run, including a hat trick against Florida on November 24th. Jason Spezza is 8-12-20, +2 over those same 15 games. From those two, you would expect some gaudy numbers. But the emergent player might be Antoine Vermette. In these last 15 games he is 6-4-10 but has three goals in his last three games, including the game-winner against Tampa Bay last Saturday. Among the unexpected scorers is Chris Neil (6-5-11, +5), usually thought to be more a purveyor of the grittier aspects of the game.

The Ottawa power play has come to life in the past month. When the Senators left Verizon a month ago, they were 6-for-73 (8.2 percent). Since then they are 19-for-76 (25.0 percent). Their fortunes have risen with their power play stock. However, their penalty kill has dropped some. While they killed 60 of 68 shorthanded situations (88.2 percent) through the Washington game last month, they are 52-for-63 since (82.5 percent).

Goaltending remains an issue, though. Despite being given every opportunity to hod the number one slot, Martin Gerber simply hasn’t done the job. At 5-8-1, 3.17, .897 for the year, he’s been a huge disappointment for a club expected to be among the elite, although he has played well in his last two outings (both wins, 1.50, .946). Ray Emery has had a fine year thus far – 10-4, 2.08, .931 – and has appeared to have taken over in the number one slot. His job will be to demonstrate that he can sustain that kind of performance over a long season and with the pressure of the number one responsibility on his shoulders.

For the Caps, the trick is to keep doing what they’re doing. After a six-game winless slide, they are 3-0 against fine clubs, outscoring them 16-9. Those 16 goals have been spread around, too. Ten different players have those goals, Matt Pettinger leading with three. Digging deeper, 12 of the 16 goals have come from players not on the top line of Alexander Ovechkin-Dainius Zubrus-Chris Clark. That the second line of Alexander Semin-Kris Beech-Matt Pettinger has chipped in six is an encouraging sign.

Key to the Caps’ success this past week has been penalty killing. The Caps have killed off 16 of 17 shorthanded situations in the last three games and have a shorthanded goal. It has offset a rather weak power play (about the only negative one might find in their recent play), which is 2-for-15 in this short run.

Olaf Kolzig has continued his dominating play in this three-game run (3-0-0, 3.00, .924). The odd statistic concerning his work has been that in each of the three games, shot totals have come down (50-38-30), yet goal totals have gone up (2-3-4). Statistics being what they are, this isn’t conclusive, just odd – Buffalo averages more than four goals a games, so their getting four isn’t exactly unusual.

Although the Caps have been stout penalty killers of late, that isn’t a recipe for winning against the Senators, who have re-discovered their offense. The Caps have outscored the opposition 13-8 at even strength in these last three games, and that is where they have to fight this battle. If both the Caps and Senators have fewer than five power play opportunities, that plays more to the Caps’ strength. If it gets to be a special teams affair, it could be a long night. But have faith, fans of the swooping eagle . . . the Caps have shown that they can compete against the better clubs in the league, as evidenced by their successful west coast swing and their recent run of luck. Tonight, more of the same . . .

Caps 3 – Senators 2

Stuff . . .

The Caps don’t play until Wednesday, but that doesn’t mean stuff isn’t going on . . .

First . . . NHL.com reports that the NHL owners are meeting in Palm Beach this week to discuss a number of items:

- High on the list of yakkable topics is the schedule. Seems the owners might realize something the general managers didn’t . . . getting a Sidney Crosby or an Alex Ovechkin, or a Detroit Red Wings (with the Grateful Red traveling road show fans) or New York Rangers once in a Halley’s Comet sighting isn’t good business. Especially when that Florida Panther/Washington Capital rivalry doesn’t appear to have taken hold. Will anything happen? The Peerless’ magic eight-ball sez . . . not at this meeting, but something will be done for the 2008-2009 season.

- Playoff bracketing . . . the league currently employs the bracket/re-bracket method after each round to ensure that the “best” team faces the “worst” in each round leading up to the Stanley Cup championship. The proposal here is to go to an NCAA-style bracketing method, where the seeds are not re-sorted after each round. That could put a real premium on the first round – if an 8-seed beats a top-seed, for example, they get the winner of the 4-5 series, no matter what (they would not have to face the 2-seed if that club beat the 7-seed). Will this change? In the end, no.

- Revenues and TV . . . the owners will get a snapshot of projected revenues and an update on the television “landscapes” in the US and Canada. These issues are related. After a large, and largely unexpected, jump in revenues in the league last year, attendance is down this year (higher ticket prices will mean a modest increase in revenue seems to be the message). Television ratings, for all the bleatings from the league and its major TV partners that progress is being made, are anemic. It’s hard to put an evening gown on a pig, call it Miss America and have anyone say anything other than, “yeah, right.” These guys are the very flower of business acumen in the National Hockey League – they’d better figure something out, and that means something other than gimmicks (cough-shootout-cough).

Second, it looks as if Alexander Ovechkin will not do any time for his hit on Daniel Briere on Saturday. The 20 minutes in penalties and Benjamin appear sufficient in the eyes of the league. The Peerless disagrees, even as a Caps fan. Boarding is a big deal (ask Erik Cole . . . or Robbie Bina, for that matter). This is one of those “learning” situations that can be more valuable to a player than any drill in practice. In this case, a player who has steadfastly earned – deservedly so – a reputation as a supremely skilled, charismatic, tough-but-clean player, can see that reputation disintegrate into that of a “dirty” player in the blink of an eye. The Peerless did his own informal, unscientific survey of team message boards to take the pulse of the hockey fan yesterday, and most sites where the topic was discussed deemed the hit “dirty,” “gutless,” that of a “punk,” and worse. Alex isn’t that kind of player and gives no indication of being that kind of person (I’ve never had the pleasure of meeting him), but that is how quick things can change, and it can take a career to dig out from under it.

The Peerless thinks one game was in order to press the point that actions have consequences, even for elite players, and to show the player (and others) in a tangible way that respect for one’s opponent is required at this level of play.

I would be shocked if this sort of thing were ever to appear again in the body of work of Alexander Ovechkin. In a career that is likely to span 15 years or more, this won’t rise to the level of footnote, but it – and suitable punishment -- could serve as a valuable lesson in the young man’s development as both a player and as an ambassador for the league.

There are three kinds of people in the world . . .

Those who can count, and those who cant. From the sabres.com story on last night's game . . .

"The bench got even shorter when three players - Paul Gaustad and Adam Mair - were assessed game misconducts in the second period after a dangerous check by Alex Ovechkin on Daniel Briere sparked some hostility."

The Peerless realizes the Sabres are good, but are two guys really as good as three?

The Hard Way at Home

They didn’t do it the easy way . . .

Dainius Zubrus: out with the flu

Matt Bradley: out with family concerns

Jamie Heward: out with injury

Shaone Morrisonn: played with stomach flu

Alexander Ovechkin: missed the last 35:08 (ejection)

Richard Zednik: missed the last 24:00 (injury)

There is a third of the regular skating complement – kicked out, injured, sick, or addressing family matters – against the top team in the East that had lost only three games in regulation.

And they did it, even then, the hard way around, getting involved in an 11-goal pinball game, the kind of game The Peerless certainly didn't think the Caps could win (we're "peerless," not "perfect").

There are many things this club needs to learn on their way to contention for a championship. Part of that is dealing with adversity, having other guys step up when things are down. Players not mentioned above went 5-7-12 last night. Eleven players had points (including the Zednik and Ovechkin goals).

One might argue that the Sabres were playing the second half of a back-to-back, had an especially difficult travel situation getting out of Buffalo the night before, went to a shootout the night before with the Rangers . . . blah-blah-blah, wah-wah-wah . . . well, in six games representing the second-half of a back-to-back coming into last night's game, the Sabres were 5-1, outscoring their opponents, 27-20.

And this makes the Caps 3-0 on their five game swing among some of the league’s better teams (Tampa Bay, Dallas, Buffalo – all wins thus far – Ottawa, and Anaheim).

This is good.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Sabres

Wow . . . just . . . wow.

The Peerless hates 8:00 starts, but for all the things that were crammed into this one, the hour delay in starting time was worth it . . .

- Zednik, Muir, Ovechkin . . . three goals on nine shots in 7:45 . . . 3-0, and Ryan Miller takes a seat.

Caps fans think, “hey, maybe we can win this game . . . “

- Buffalo gets one back with just under five minutes left in the first . . . 3-1

Caps fans think, “that’s it, we’re screwed . . . “

- Ben Clymer gets it back less than a minute later . . . 4-1

Caps fans think, “we’re still in it!”

- Alex Ovechkin commits the single dumbest play of his short career . . . he takes a seat. Paul Gaustad leaves his seat to take on Ovechkin, gets 27 PIMs in the blink of an eye . . . he takes a seat. Danielle Briere, who looked as if he'd been shot with a deer rifle on the Ovechkin hit, never misses a shift. Adam Mair auditions for the Redskins' kicking job . . . he takes a seat.

Caps fans think, “where’s Brashear?”

- Brian Pothier freight-trains Maxim Afinogenov (ok, who ever thought THAT sentence ever would be written). Then he pokes the puck forward toward Jakub Klepis. Martin Biron springs out of his net to try to beat Klepis to the puck, dives, misses (but upending Klepis, sending him careening into the corner), and ends up with a nice seat at the Sabres’ blue line to watch Matt Pettinger stick the puck in the net . . . 5-1

Caps fans think, “the circus is in town?”

- Buffalo gets a power play goal from Chris Drury, who managed to get the puck from his backhand to his forehand and back to his backhand to lift it over Olaf Kolzig, all with Shaone Morrisonn and Boyd Gordon close enough to be able to read the tag on the back of the collar of his jersey . . . 5-2

Caps fans think, “oh well, it was nice while it lasted . . .”

- Buffalo got another one in the last minute of the second . . . 5-3

Caps fans think, “who will we draft first overall next June?”

- Matt Pettinger scores a goal that might have been picked up on radar (the human eye couldn’t record the event) on a silly sick feed from Alexander Semin out of the left wing corner . . . 6-3

Caps fans think, “Matt Pettinger . . . our very own Jari Kurri.”

Buffalo scratches back with a goal mid-way through the third . . . 6-4

Caps fans think, “@$#%!”

- John Erskine finds the puck behind his own goal line and threw it along the boards. Teppo Numminen couldn't keep it in, and the puck skittered down the ice toward the Sabres' net. Numminen turned and raced -- well, raced as much as a 38-year old defenseman can -- after the puck. He was a step too late, ands Erskine had his goal-from-another-area-code . . . 7-4

Caps fans think, “huh...knew it all along.”

Some odd numbers . . .

7:21/56:00 – That would be the combined ice time/combined penalty minutes of Adam Mair and Paul Gaustad.

Two – That would be the number of shifts Andrew Peters had (29 seconds of total ice time), and one of those was to skate to the bench after serving in the box in place of Sabres already penalized and ejected.

Three – the first three game winning streak of the year for the Caps.

Three (again) – the number of consecutive games the Caps have chased the opponent’s starting goalie.

60 – the percentage of draws won by the Caps. No Cap lost more than he won.

9-15-2 – the Caps’ record after 26 games last year (20 points). They are 11-9-6 (28 points) this year.

17/16 – The number of goals Alexander Ovechkin has/had in 26 games this year/last year. Is this guy consistent, or what?

And finally . . . Ovechkin plays less than ten minutes, gets a fighting penalty while neither discarding his gloves nor throwing a punch . . . gets the game's second star. Now that is a fitting end to a squirrelly night.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! . . . Caps vs. Sabres, December 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!

Break up the Caps! Two in a row, against Tampa Bay and Dallas, no less. We won’t get into the end-of-game nail-biting that ensued as both opponents made late runs, looking to focus on the good stuff. So, for the good stuff . . .

In those two games, Washington scored nine goals from seven different players (Chris Clark and Alexander Semin netting two goals, apiece), and . . .

Olaf Kolzig . . . 83 saves on 89 shots (.933)

Matt Pettinger, +3, 1-2-2 . . . Alexander Semin, 2-1-3, +2 . . . John Erskine, more than 21 minutes a game, +1 . . . Jakub Klepis, 0-2-2, even . . . Brian Pothier, +3 . . .

The point being that the Caps have gotten contributions from more than just the first line. Now, if the Caps can only get Alexander Ovechkin up and running in penalty shot/shootout situations, they’d be . . .

“now . . . that’s just ‘stinking thinking’”

Uh, Stuart? Stuart Smalley?

“Yes, I’m Stuart, and I’m a worthy human being . . .”

Of course you are . . . ok, The Peerless guesses it can’t hurt . . . what would you say to Alex to get him out of his funk?

“Well, I’d sit him down, face-to-face . . . I’d look into his eyes and say to him, ‘Alex?...You’re ‘should-ing’ all over yourself. You can’t say ‘I should have done this,’ or ‘I should have done that.’ You need to say, ‘I’m good enough, I’m smart enough, and doggone it, people like me.’”

Well, it’s kind of tough out there as the only guy on the ice with everyone expecting him to make a great play . . . maybe he’s thinking about it too much . . .

“Well, maybe, and that's.. o-kay. He’s not alone. Believe me, I know what it's like…out there alone… all those fans watching: ‘I'm a fraud.. tomorrow, I'm going to be exposed for what I am, a big imposter’… I just want to curl up and lay in bed all day and eat Fig Newtons.”

But he’s the Calder Trophy winner. He had 52 goals last year. No one has more goals the last two years . . .

“And that’s why he has to say, “I don’t need to be a great shootout shooter, I just need to be the best Alex I can be . . . “

Think that will work?

“Well . . . yes, but if it doesn’t, maybe he could try a wrister every once in a while instead of always deking.”

Well, hopefully it won’t come to that, but Buffalo is one formidable club. If there is a ray of sunshine looking at this game, it is that Buffalo played a full 65 minutes and a shootout last night against the Rangers in Buffalo (they won 4-3). That could mean that Ryan Miller would get tonight off, and the Caps would face a backup for the second straight contest. Of course, Martin Biron would be that backup. He is, to use a baseball analogy, a guy who gets a lot of wins because he gets lots of run-support (or in this case, goal support). In Biron’s seven wins (he’s 7-1), he’s had at least four goals of support. His own stats are pretty ordinary – 3.11, .893 – although he’s had considerable success against Washington in his career (9-5-1, 2.40, .916).

Getting support, though, is hardly uncommon for Buffalo goaltenders. The Sabres lead the league in scoring (almost two-thirds of a goal better than second-place Nashville). They are an extremely efficient club. They score 4.16 goals a game (1^st) on only 29.7 shots a game (15^th). And, the balance that they rode to the playoffs last year manifests itself once more this year. They have 12 skaters in double-digit scoring (the Caps, by way of comparison, have seven). They have five players in double-digit goal scoring (the Caps, three). They have five players in double-digit plus numbers for the year (the Caps, none). They have only three players with more than 10 games played who are minus for the year – all are at -1 (the Caps, 13 players). Buffalo has 12 goals from their defense, the Caps have only five from their centers (at least those who have played more at that position that at wing).

Buffalo is not an especially noteworthy defensive team. They are 15^th in goals-per-game allowed, 16^th in penalty killing. But, while they can and do give up goals, no lead is safe against them. Their winning percentage when trailing first? . . . .900 (better than when they score first). They are, in a sense, the very epitome of the new NHL team the league seems to prefer – all offense, all the time, speedy, not especially physical (for example, they are 21^st in fighting majors – five of those by Andrew Peters -- 12^th in total shorthanded situation)—a video game team.

This could be a 7-5 game. If it is, the Caps getting the “7” is not a good bet. Despite their speed, they won’t match the Sabres’ offensive balance. The wild card here is the goaltenders. Kolzig, who would seem to get the nod here, having had a day off since the Dallas game, has had a good, if not spectacular career mark against the Sabres (13-11-2, 2.41, .911). And, he’s been consistently strong lately.

The Peerless has a feeling this is going longer than 65 minutes. And Martin Biron hasn’t been in a shootout this year. Alex Ovechkin takes Stuart Smalley’s affirmations to heart . . .

Caps 4 – Sabres 3, in a shootout.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Stars

Well, they sure do make it entertaining, don’t they? The Caps won a game last night they had every indication of gagging on late in the third period, beating the Dallas Stars, 4-3. For 56 minutes, they were as dominating a club as this club can be. And this has nothing to do with the fact that Dallas chose to dress Mike Smith in lieu of Marty Turco in goal (Smith was pulled for the third period in favor of Turco after he gave up four goals on 14 shots). The Caps won more battles than not along the boards and in the corners, and played Dallas even in the grinding aspects of the game. They took advantage of their opportunities (well, that three-on-one where they never got a shot on net wasn’t pretty, and if you look up “snake-bit” in the dictionary this morning, you’ll see Alexander Ovechkin with the puck skittering off his stick on a penalty shot). They gave goalie Olaf Kolzig a comparative night off for those first 56 minutes.

Then there were the last four minutes of the game.

In those first 56 minutes, the Stars managed 27 shots on goal – a pretty average night for any average NHL team (and a lot less than the Caps usually surrender). In the last four minutes (actually, the last 3:43), the Stars had 11 shots on goal. A 4-1 lead was shaved to its thinnest advantage on a well-placed Stu Barnes shot from the low left-wing circle and 1:17 later a wrister from Jussi Jokinen from the slot when he was left uncovered on a rebound.

But, as is often – perhaps a little too often – the case, the game was placed in the hands of goalie Olaf Kolzig, who continued his sharp play (35 saves on 38 shots for the game). Kolzig turned away the last four shots taken in the last minute, and it was another “GAL LODI” night (getting tired of this, yet?).

Looking at the Caps’ performance for the night, what is remarkable is its balance. As was the case in the Tampa game, each of the goals was scored by a different player – Richard Zednik, Chris Clark, Matt Pettinger, and Alexander Semin. But, nine different players registered points (only Jakub Klepis had more than one point – two assists). None of those points were registered by Alexander Ovechkin (ending a modest three game scoring streak).

The Caps had more than one occasion to fold in this game. With a 2-0 lead to start the second period, Dallas got a quick marker 41 seconds in. Given the Caps’ problems in the second period this year, that could have signaled a meltdown. The Caps held the Stars to only eight more shots in the period.

The Caps could have seen the air go out of their balloon when Alexander Ovechkin missed a penalty shot midway through the second and the Caps holding only a 2-1 lead. But the Caps managed to net two more goals late in the period – one on a sweet move by Matt Pettinger to step over a desperate sweep check by a Dallas defender who was prone on the ice – to stake themselves to a 4-1 lead at the second intermission.

The Caps appeared to stop skating in the last half of the third period, perhaps thinking that all that was left was to run out the clock. They were burned for that with the two late goals, but they managed to grind out those last two minutes without surrendering the tying goal.

It was a gritty performance befitting the nature of the opponent and the kind of game the Caps have to play on most nights to win. There was perhaps more scoring in this game than one (well, The Peerless) might have expected, but in that is evidence of the Caps’ promise, too. Three of the goals were scored by players who can now be considered “foundation” players as the club goes forward – Clark, Pettinger, Semin. As the skill – or more precisely, the experience in applying that skill – catches up to the effort level, this could be a formidable team. They gave evidence tonight of two truths. First, they can compete with any team when their effort level is high. Second, they can find themselves in deep trouble when that effort level isn’t as high, since they don’t yet have the skill level to get by on skill alone.

The Caps are tied for tenth this morning, which is where they might be expected to be after 25 games. But on the plus side, they have negotiated the first two of this five-game stretch against some of the league’s better teams successfully. It will not get easier with Buffalo, Ottawa, and Anaheim coming to town, but Caps fans have no reason to think that the club can’t compete with these teams.


-- Congratulations to Olaf Kolzig. Last night was his first win against the Stars in his career. He had been winless in ten decisions against them to that point.

-- Jamie Heward took a Mike Modano skate blade to the face that opened up a nasty gash along the bridge of his nose and left cheek under his eye. It was an injury that looked ugly at the time and in pictures after the game. But, Heward being a gamer, he skated off strongly on his own. Although he’s listed as being out indefinitely this morning, we’re all hoping his is a quick recovery.

It's That Time Again . . . The "Old Man's Major Award Award"

Yes, it's that time again. As we approach the end of the month, it is almost time to award the November OMMAA.



This presitigious trophy -- suitable for framing in, say, the picture window of the family home -- is bestowed to that Washington Capital who exhibits the timeless qualities of "The Old Man" -- a unique gift for language, a singular inability to fix anything, a hatred of Bumpus' hounds - or just opponents in general -- a love of turkey, and a singular effort in exhibiting the curmudgeonly, ornery, but loving attributes we attribute to, "The Old Man."

The floor is open to nominations for the first five days following the end of the month. The decisions of The Peerless will be final . . .

"What is a lamp, you nincompoop? It's a Major Award. I won it!"

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Stars, November 30th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!

Well, the Caps got off the schneid last time out and . . .

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. . . rode a 48-save performance by Olaf Kolzig to a 5-2 win in Tampa . . .

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. . . but next up are the Dallas Stars, a club that always gives the Caps fits. But before we get to that, we have a special treat. With the league’s teams approaching the one-third point of the season, The Peerless thought it might be time to get a Commissioner’s eye view of the league so far . . . Mr. Commissioner . . .

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Mr. Commissioner? . . .

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Mr. Commissioner??

“WHAT?!”

Mr. Commissioner, we’re interested in your take on the season so far.

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Mr. Commissioner?

“Ok, OK, already! . . . what was the question?”

Your take on the season so far?

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Mr. Commiss–

“It’s great, it’s wonderful, best season ever, blah-blah-blah...”

Mr. Commissioner, I thought we could–

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Mr. Commissioner, what in heaven’s name are you doing?

“Don’t interrupt me, I’m busy . . . Crosby-Fleury-Malkin...(send) . . . Crosby-Fleury-Malkin...(send) . . . “

Well, while the Commissioner stuffs the All-Star Game ballot box, we’ll take a look at what’s up next for the Caps.

At 16-8-0 Dallas is tied for the fifth highest point total in the league. They suffer for being in the same division as Anaheim (tops in points) and San Jose (third). Dallas has not played those clubs often (they are 1-1 against those two so far this year), but they are 15-7 against the rest of the league. They’re doing it in a way familiar to those who have watched that team over the years – they are giving up fewer goals per game than any team in the league (2.13). As one might expect from that result, the Stars are quite effective at even strength (fourth in 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio) and equally effective in killing penalties (fourth at 87.7 percent). Add to that the fact that they are second in the league in shots allowed per game (a minuscule 25.8), and it is clear that teams have to earn what meager offense they can generate against this team. And, if a team does fall behind, the task becomes even more difficult – Dallas leads the league in winning percentage when scoring first.

Looking at the club at the individual level, the team defensive numbers reflect a strength from the inside out – no defenseman has a minus number for the year. It is a group that is solid and deep. Add a three-time Selke winner in Jere Lehtinen, and it is as formidable a defensive group in its parts as it is as a team.

It would be tempting to think of the weak link here as being goaltending, but if anything Marty Turco is a regular season wonder. He can be counted on to have a GAA in the low 2's (or lower) and a save percentage in the .920 range (with a sparse workload in terms of shots). Given that the Stars played the Blackhawks last night, though, one might think Mike Smith will get a turn. Smith, in limited action (six games) has sparkling numbers – 5-1, 1.53, .937. Getting him would not necessarily be a blessing.

As for the former local hero, Jeff Halpern has had what for him is a typically indifferent start – 3-5-8, even, in 23 games (not including the Wednesday game), although he’s been stirring a bit more of late (2-2-4, +1 in his last six).

The Caps, on the other hand, are a club that might be between tendencies. In their six game winless streak they scored only nine goals while giving up 24 (not including a shootout loss). The Caps have given up 33 more goals than have the Stars – 1.38 more per game – while giving up 14.4 more shots per game. Those are significant numbers. 1.38 goals per game on 14.4 shots is a .904 save percentage. If, say, Olaf Kolzig and Marty Turco both save .904 percent of their shots, both have an average game in terms of shots faced, the Caps lose by more than a goal. For the Caps to get the club to overtime, Kolzig would have to save 93.8 percent of the shots he faces (assuming an average game of 36.5 shots). That’s a lot of arithmetic, but the point is that Kolzig has to stand on his head while Turco sits in a rocker to achieve the same result in terms of goals allowed.

But we said they might be between tendencies. They suffered a bump in the road (ok, they spun into a ditch for half a dozen games), but they spread the love around against Tampa – five players scored the five goals – and they withstood a late Tampa charge, thanks largely to Kolzig. Perhaps this is the beginning of a bit of a run. It can’t come at a better time, given the level of competition the Caps will face.

Some numbers of note . . . Alex Ovechkin has scored goals in 12 of his last 19 games – not points, goals (a total of 14 goals). That is at once a remarkably consistent record, and it is a 60-goal pace over 82 games.

The last time Dainius Zubrus won half his face-offs? . . . Veterans Day. He’s gone seven straight games on the sub-50 percent side of the ledger.

Ben Clymer is quietly struggling. Since his splashy return to forward against Philadelphia on November 4th, he has not been on the plus side of the ledger (-7 in 11 games).

Matt Pettinger has points in eight of his last 11 games (4-5-9).

Since laying an egg against Ottawa, Olaf Kolzig has saved 245 of 262 shots (93.5 percent) in seven games.

This is likely to be an aesthetically ugly game to watch. Dallas grinds out wins, and the Caps are a team hard to predict as to which one will appear. "GAL LODI" is going to have to be the recipe again – “get a lead” . . . “let Olie do it.” The Caps almost have to approach this as a road game, keeping things simple and taking advantage of what few opportunities they are likely to get. Dallas has been in a feast-or-famine stretch lately, scoring at least four goals in their last seven games but getting only a single marker in each of the others (including the 2-1 loss to Chicago Wednesday, which ended as The Peerless wrote this). Given how Kolzig has played lately and Ovechkin’s consistency in goal scoring, a couple of markers could do the trick . . .

Caps 2 – Stars 1.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Lightning

Well, it seems that the Caps’ formula for winning can be summed up with this acronym:

"GAL LODI"

“Get a Lead” . . . “Let Olie Do It.”

Last night, the Caps withstood an early storm by the Tampa Bay Lightning, made them pay for letting the Caps off the hook by getting a late first-of-game goal from Kris Beech in the first period, pounded three pucks into the back of the net in the second to take a 4-0 lead (and seemingly end the competitive portion of the game), then turned the game over to Kolzig in the third (25 shots on net faced, two goals surrendered – not a bad game total).

The Peerless will tell himself all morning that it’s not “how,” it’s “how many” – wins that is, and this one is nice, given that it: a) ends a six-game winless streak, and b) comes at the expense of a division opponent on their ice.

But let’s not kid ourselves, either. But for the rank ineptitude of the Tampa power play (nothing to show for seven opportunities and 24 total shots on goal with the man-advantage) and the Comanecian gymnastics of Kolzig in the nets (saving 48 of 50 shots on goal), this would have been an ugly game for a Caps fan to endure.

The number that sticks in The Peerless’ head this morning is this one . . .

81

That represents the total of shots on goal, missed shots, and shots blocked by Capitals. That’s approximately one shot sent toward the net every 45 seconds. And let’s put that number in further perspective. Last night, the Milwaukee Bucks scored more points in an NBA game than any other team – 109. In doing so, they took 85 shots from the floor (we don’t include free throws for this comparison, since the clock is stopped for those instances). The Tampa effort was as close to a run-and-gun NBA game as you’re likely to find. With apologies to Cristobal Huet and Roberto Luongo – both of whom are goaltenders who had fine games last night – neither was better than Olaf Kolzig in earning their respective three-star recognition from NHL.com.

But what about the good stuff? Well, there was, actually, and not just the win. The Caps had five different players score the five goals – Beech, Boyd Gordon (shorthanded), Alexander Semin, Chris Clark, and an empty-netter by Alexander Ovechkin. That’s two from the first line and three from . . . SOMEWHERE ELSE!

Then there are the even strength goals. In the six-game slide, the Caps had two of that sort. Mites score more at the intermission of one game. The Caps had four even-strength tallies in this one (including the Ovechkin empty-netter).

And there is John Erskine. Plus-three and a swat at everyone’s favorite wind-up doll, Martin St. Louis.

But if The Peerless had to give a slice o’ pie to one Cap last night, it would have been Matt Pettinger. As time goes by, he gives more indication that his coming-out last year was not fluke. He had the primary assists on each of the Caps first two goals last night – one in his role as the right wing (the “Chris-Clark-lite” role) on the second line, the other in a penalty killing situation. He was plus-three for the night and played with a consistent level of intensity.

But heavens to Murgatroid . . . what a night for Kolzig. 48 saves on 50 shots (.960 save percentage), 25 shots faced in the last period (13 of those from the big three of St. Louis, Brad Richards, and Vincent Levcavalier), 24 power play shots faced.

Sometimes, you lose games you scratch your head and ask, “how?” You play at a high effort level, you get a ton of chances, and you end up losing the bounces of the puck that night. Then there are those games you have no business winning. You get outshot, outchanced, outplayed. But you take advantage of just about every opportunity you get, and you get a standout performance from the goalie. It isn’t pretty, but this isn’t the Beauty Contest System that is college football, either. Two points is granted for every win, no matter how it looks. And two points looks mighty fine this morning.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps versus Lightning, November 27th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! . . .

OK, so Turkey Day (or Turkey Week, given the last three gobblers the Caps horked up) is over. Time to return to serious business, and it doesn’t get any more serious than the next five games for the –

“Business? . . . Nobody knows business like me.”

The Donald? . . . Don’t you have people to fire?

“Funny . . . maybe you should do stand up at one of my casinos.”

Really, though . . . it’s a surprise to see you here for a Caps game.

“I’m here to see that Ovechkin kid. I want to hire that kid – he’s a natural. He could sell Flyer jerseys to a Penguin fan. He could sell Melrose on shaving his head.”

Well, I think he’s got some hockey to play first . . .

“Oh, sure, sure. But watching him, it just makes me want to buy a team. I can just see the kid with ‘TRUMP’ on his jersey.”

His name is “Ovechkin.”

“The name of the team, you moron . . . The Washington Trump.”

There’s already an owner here.

“Really . . . know any teams for sale?“

Sorry . . . but maybe you could pry that football team loose from the boy wonder over in Ashburn.

“Ashburn? . . . sounds like the feeling Redskin fans have sitting on their couches watching them every Sunday.”

Hmm . . . maybe you should do stand up.

“Sure . . . well, I gotta go . . . you seen Fraser anywhere? He was going to talk to me about hair care . . . “

As for the game, Tampa Bay – the very picture of mediocrity over the first quarter of the season -- appears to have found its stride of late. The Bolts are on a three-game winning streak, beating Florida, Atlanta (in overtime), and Ottawa. Of special note to Caps fans, Martin St. Louis is 2-5-7, +4 in those three games. As if it bears noting, given his career numbers against the Caps (9-13-22 in 29 regular season games), he will be one to watch closely.

Brad Richards, who got off to somewhat of a slow start, has three goals in these last three games and is winning almost two-thirds of his draws (34 of 52).

Another player to watch, if only out of curiosity, is Nikita Alexeev. After scoring two goals in a win over the Caps on October 21st (including the game winner), he has only three goals in 16 games since.

As a team, Tampa has done the right things mostly right in their three game streak. Special teams . . . the power play is 4-14 (28.6 percent), while the Lightning have only found themselves shorthanded four times in their last two games (yielding no power play goals). The big guys are scoring (St. Louis and Richards have five of the Lightning’s last 12 goals, while defenseman Dan Boyle has chipped in three of his own). Johan Holmqvist has provided solid goaltending (3-0, 2.32, .916 in the three game winning streak).

If there is a weakness to be exploited, it is Tampa Bay’s penalty killing. While they have killed off all four of their man-short situations in the last two games, they remain last in the NHL in penalty killing (73.8 percent). If the Caps are going to get well on the power play (9-for-60 in their last 11 games), it might be against this team.

But it isn’t just the power play that is suffering lately. The Caps can’t score even strength goals . . . well, at all. In the six game winless skid, the Caps have scored a total of nine goals – six on the power play, one shorthanded, and two at even strength (both by Jakub Klepis). The possibility of having Alexander Semin return to the lineup might relieve some of the pressure off of the top line (Ovechkin is the only member of the top line with any goals in the last five games).

While scoring is clearly a problem, it isn’t the only one, and it might be a consequence of other problems. For instance, the Caps have lost the faceoff battle in each of the games on this winless slide and managed to win only 44 percent of their draws. Hard to score when you don’t have the puck. The Caps have surrendered the first goal in five of the six games. Hard to mount a lot of offense when you’re always pushing uphill against the scoreboard. Even goaltending – thus far a strength of the club – has hit a bad stretch. While it isn’t fair to blame Olaf Kolzig or Brent Johnson for every puck that skips past them, they haven’t been especially sharp in these last several games, either.

The four weeks between the holidays is not a stretch where you can win a playoff spot, but you can lose one here. And for the Caps, the schedule is quite daunting in terms of quality of opponent. The next five will be especially difficult, starting tonight. One would think the club will not lack for focus. The Caps played a better game against the Islanders than in any of the five preceding games, and that is how one climbs out of a bad streak. With that in mind . . .

Caps 4 – Lightning 3, in overtime.

The (Lost) Weekend After

WTF?!

You go away for a few days and the Caps end up 0-3, get outscored 15-4, rack up 124 minutes in penalties, win only 42 percent of their faceoffs, give away the puck 47 times (but take it away only 29 times themselves), manage to convert 17.6 percent of their power plays while killing only 70.6 percent of the disadvantages . . . even the fights we caught on YouTube were boring.

WTFU!

As in . . . “wake the f**k up!

It would be hard to find anything coming out of the numbers of the last three games that could be considered good. These three games are a wake up call. Instead of 8-6-6 and on the inside of the playoff race, the Caps are now 8-9-6 and within sniffing distance of last in the conference (don’t look now, but Philly only has one fewer win than do the Caps).

What the heck went wrong? Well, The Peerless didn’t see any of these three games (being out of town and all), but some things do jump out of the numbers . . .

Alex Ovechkin had two goals, the rest of the club had . . . two goals (Pettinger, Klepis). Alexander Semin was out, Dainius Zubrus perhaps should have been (he’s got to be playing hurt – he has one point and is -8 for the last four games he’s dressed). It’s not as if they’re getting much non-first line production anyway (save for Matt Pettinger). No player who dressed for all three games has more plus than minus games, indicative of a team-wide meltdown.

By period, the problem – if not the solution – is pretty stark. The Caps were outscored 3-2 in the first period of these three games and by 3-1 in the third. But they were outscored 9-1 in the second period of these games. This has been a recurring problem this year. When they play themselves out of games, more often it seems than not, it is in the middle frame.

The Caps are 0-4-2 in their last six games. Growing teams go through this. One of the things such a team has to learn is how to stop the bleeding. The trouble is, things do not break in the Caps’ favor so far as the schedule goes the next couple of weeks. They go to Tampa (6-3-1 in their last 10), then home to Dallas (always a tough opponent for the Caps), home to Buffalo (‘nuff said), home to Ottawa (6-4 since their OT loss to the Caps), and home to Anaheim (two regulation losses this year). The combined record of these five teams is 73-32-10 . . .

Good luck, boys.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps versus Thrashers, November 22nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! . . . in this, the last installment before the holiday.

Tonight, the Caps take to home ice once more to host the Atlanta Thr—

“BAM!”

Well, well, it’s the man, himself . . . Emeril, shouldn’t you be thick in the middle of preparing Thanksgiving goodies?

“I have a little secret . . . I don’t cook anymore. I just shout, ‘BAM!’, throw a spice or two on top, and let others do the cooking . . . I HATE cooking!”

What would you rather be doing?

“Well, I’ve always dreamed of being a hockey player . . . “

Ah, you grew up in Fall River, Massachusetts, so it figures . . .

“Yeah, I actually started shouting ‘BAM!’ when I saw Bobby Orr checking guys into the boards.”

Who knew? . . . so, do you have a recipe for a Caps win tonight?

“Hey, knock it off with the cooking references . . . didn’t I tell you I HATE cooking??”

Uh . . . ok, so what brings you to DC, anyway?

“I wanted to see a different bird cooked –wink wink—“

Uh, didn’t you say . . .

“yeah, yeah . . . I can’t help it.”

So, what do you see as the keys to the game?

“Well, the Thrashers have just the right combination of meat on the blue line with Andy Sutton, Vitaly Vishnevski, Garnet Exelby, and Greg DeVries . . . and a spicy combination of Ilya Kovalchuk, Marian Hossa, and Vyacheslav (hey, ya like the way I said that?) Kozlov . . . but the ‘essence’ is Jon Sim. He really is the ingredient always seems to come through when they play the Caps.”

Good point . . . Sim is 10-5-15, +6 in 17 career games against the Caps. But Kovalchuk . . . 13-17-30, +11 in 25 games against the Caps in his career.

“Amazing, considering he’s -70 against the rest of the league in his career. But they seem to have goalie problems – Kari Lehtonen is 1-4 in his last six appearances and got yanked in his last outing against Dallas after giving up three goals on seven shots. Johan Hedberg had a fine game against Montreal last time out in a loss, and he has a pretty good record against the Caps going back to his Pittsburgh days.”

You have a pretty amazing command of the stats.

“Hey, like I told ya, I don’t cook anymore . . . I just play one on TV!”

As for the Caps, they’ve been on the short end of three one-goal games against Atlanta so far this year. They’ve experienced each kind of loss – regulation, overtime, and shootout. If the stars are aligned, they have filled that scorecard out and will now experience one of the three types of wins. To do that, the Caps are going to have to prevent the usual suspects – Kovalchuk and Sim – from getting into any kind of offensive rhythm. That means controlling the puck (to reduce the number of shots their goalie – presumably Olaf Kolzig – has to face) and making them – especially their forwards -- play defense. In turn, that will mean smart decisions on the part of defensemen getting out of their own end and the ability to win faceoffs (the Caps have been on the short end in two of the three games against Atlanta this year).

The Caps have stubbed their toe in recent games – 0-1-2 in their last three. This is a chance to enjoy the Thursday turkey rather than choke on dry stuffing, courtesy of Atlanta stuffing goals in the Capitals’ net. It’s a division game, and it’s a chance to climb back into the top eight and close the distance with Atlanta for the division lead.

Caps 5 – Thrashers 3

Happy Holidays, Hockey Fans!!!

Compering the Tens -- Through 20 Games . . . Part IV, The Goaltenders

Finally, the Goaltenders . . .

Olaf Kolzig:

First ten games: 3-2-2, 3.24, .910
Second ten games: 3-2-1, 2.72, .926

With apologies to Alexander Ovechkin, as goes Kolzig, so go the Caps. He isn’t the minutes eater he was earlier in his career (he’s 19^th in time on ice among goalies this year), but he’s still the clear number one, the rock around which this team functions. With the loud exception of one game against Ottawa, he’s played well – spectacularly in many cases. He’s actually facing more shots-per-60 minutes in the second ten games (36.6) than in his first ten (36.1). He’s playing fewer minutes, perhaps, but he’s spending a lot of that time folding and unfolding into and out of his butterfly. The Peerless does not see this as a sustainable set of events.

Brent Johnson:

First ten games: 0-1-2, 2.53, .926
Second ten games: 2-1-1, 2.86, .918

Johnson has been more than a bargain ($575,000) as the second goaltender. One could argue he’s had only one sub-par performance among his seven appearances this year (at Carolina when he allowed five goals on 39 shots). If anything, he’s been unlucky. A goalie who saves more than 92 percent of the shots he faces should have more than two wins in seven appearances. He plays like a man who is comfortable in his current role, and who enjoys and makes the most of the chances he gets. He’s facing a slightly lower workload than Kolzig (34.2 shots-per-60 minutes in the first ten, 34.8-per-60 minutes in the second ten), but it’s still a heavy workload. He gets about a third of the total minutes, which seems about right for both goalies.

Overall:

You’d be hard pressed to find a goaltender tandem playing better than this pair. It has been the strength of the team in the first quarter of the season. It is their facing a ton of rubber that has their goals-against higher than it should be. The Peerless would argue that had their performances been more pedestrian, the Caps might be in Flyerland in the standings. The overall grade:

A

Comparing the Tens -- Through 20 Games . . . Part III, The Defensemen

In our next installment . . . the defensemen.

Brian Pothier:

First ten games 0-9-9, +2
Second ten games: 0-2-2, -2

Pothier has been the Caps’ everydefenseman – on the ice at even strength, on for the power play, killing penalties. He plays top minutes. He is consistent. If anything, he’s getting more work – almost 28 minutes a game in the second ten versus a little over 27 in the first ten. He’s sending the puck to the net a bit more – 19 shots versus 14, 14 missed shots versus 11. But he has less to show for it on the offensive ledger – two assists versus nine (no goals scored as yet). All in all, he’s done just about all that could reasonably be been asked of him. He isn’t an especially physical player, and he doesn’t have a booming shot, so to expect much in either of those areas is a stretch. But he’s been effective in his role.

John Erskine:

First ten games: 0-0-0, even (did not play)
Second ten games: 0-0-0, -2

First of all, The Peerless likes what Erskine brings. He plays within himself and has more than a menacing personality. But he’s also a victim of low expectations, too. The Peerless will wager that fans fairly expected him to be dragging his knuckles on the ice the first time he took the ice. When he didn’t – when he could skate upright (as opposed to, say, a Garret Stroshein) – he was pleasantly received. Actually, though, given that he’s getting more than 16 minutes a game in the six games he’s played (virtually the same as Jamie Heward), he has been pretty effective. The question, though, is – can he keep it up?

Jamie Heward:

First ten games: 2-2-4, +2
Second ten games: 0-2-2, +3

Heward is another consistent guy out there. He’ll get time in every situation – even strength, power play, penalty kill – and he’ll provide a reliably decent effort in just about every game with results the club can count on. He might be defined by the term, “journeyman,” but that isn’t an insult to the player. No single number in either ten-game stretch or in total sticks out, and that’s a reflection of the kind of player and performance he’s contributed so far.

Shaone Morrisonn:

First ten games: 0-0-0, +3
Second ten games: 1-4-5, -1

He’s the best defenseman on this club right now. More to the point, he is the one who will be out there to match up against the opposition’s most dangerous scorer. That he’d be a plus player is evidence that he’s developing nicely. He isn’t a finished product by any means, but there isn’t any reason to conclude he won’t continue to improve. If anything, he’s become more assertive in his last ten games at both ends of the ice – 9 total shots on goal in the second ten versus five in the first ten (he’s got more missed shots, too), 15 hits versus nine. But he did record the club’s first fighting major in those first ten games (well, the tenth).

Ben Clymer:

First ten games: 0-2-2, -2
Second ten games: 0-0-0, -3 (moved to forward after game 12)

The Great Experiment . . . well, The Peerless isn’t sure Dr. Frankenstein got it right the first time, either. Clymer had the skating part down – a premium in the way the game is played nowadays – but appeared not to be able to make decisions quickly enough in this role. His -5 as a defenseman remains the worst plus-minus among defensemen on the club (tied with Steve Eminger).

Steve Eminger:

First ten games: 0-1-1, -5
Second ten games: 0-2-2, even

Eminger seems to have inherited the Ivan Majesky Fan Abuse mantle this year. Few have anything good to say about him. OK, so The Peerless will. Eminger appears to have been assigned a somewhat different role on this year’s club – less the “all-around” defenseman and more of a stay-at-home type. Different responsibilities, different decision making. And to start the year, he was slow in catching on. But, having been freed of some of the defensive defenseman rules (or, put another way, paired with Erskine in many situations), his performance has improved. In the first ten games, he had five “minus” games. In the last ten, one (although giving him a seat for the first two in this second stretch seems to have focused his attention, too). His problem might be that he suffers in comparison to Morrisonn, who has played almost the identical number of career games.

Bryan Muir:

First ten games: 0-0-0, +1
Second ten games: 0-1-1, +2

If Eminger has the Majesky Mantle, Muir has the Mathieu Biron Boo Bird banner draped across his jersey. Fans seem to have little use for this guy, too. This is a guy who played (albeit sparingly) for a Stanley Cup winner. He has one “minus” game in the ten he’s played this year. He contributes little offense when he’s out there (he’s only credited with four shots on goal), but he isn’t quite the slug some fans think, either. His mistakes (and this goes for Eminger, too) stand out, because folks are looking for and expecting them. If the Caps were a contender or further along in their rebuild, he’s probably no longer on the roster (this is probably the Jeff Schultz position next year). But The Peerless scrtaches his head at the abuse heaped upon this guy.

Mike Green:

First ten games: 2-1-3, +2
Second ten games: 0-2-2, +3

For a guy who just turned 21 this season and came into the season with less than 20 games of NHL experience, he’s had a really nice start. It might be youth more than anything, but at the moment he has the “offensive defenseman” role. He gets almost no penalty killing time (a total of a little less than three minutes so far this season), but gets significant power play time (more than three and a half minutes per game thus far). In that sense, you’d wish his numbers were better, but then it would be forgetting just where this youngster is on the development ladder. He plays beyond his years.

Overall:

It would be hard to pin any defenseman here with the “short of expectations” label. Even Steve Eminger has brought his game along in the last ten game stretch. As a group – especially the youngsters Morrisonn, Green, and Eminger – they’ve played pretty well. That is not to say there aren’t shortcomings. There is that matter of the shots allowed level. While that might be as much a problem for the forwards, the defensemen (probably as a function of their youth) haven’t displayed much in terms of the little tricks and devices to clear the puck and prevent multiple shots. Also, as a group they sometimes have difficulty getting the puck moving out of the Caps’ zone, which just tilts the ice toward their goal and gives the opposition more opportunities. That’s both a team and individual problem that needs to improve. The overall grade:

B

Comparing the Tens -- Through 20 Games . . . Part II, The Forwards

We looked at the team in the last installment, now it’s time to look at individuals. First, the forwards:

Alexander Ovechkin:

First ten games: 6-4-10, -3
Second ten games: 7-6-13, +2

It is a measure of the player that his first ten games could be considered a “slow” start (he was 6-5-11, +1 in his first ten last year). The trouble with that first ten games is the first game in that stretch. Putting Richard Zednik on that line might have looked like a good idea on paper, but in real time . . . ugh. One might note that in Ovechkin’s second ten games last year he was “only” 9-1-10, -4. The point we are torturing before getting to it is that that youngster is remarkable consistent . . . wind him up, watch him get 10-15 points every ten games. He did it last year, he’s up to the same hijinks this year. But here is the money number – three. He’s had the game winning goal in three of the Caps’ five wins in the second ten games (he has four game-winners overall). His goals aren’t the stat-padding kind.

Dainius Zubrus:

First ten games: 5-3-8, -2
Second ten games: 7-3-10, +1

The Peerless isn’t sure if this is a matter of his really finding a comfort zone with Ovechkin or if it’s a matter of “contract year.” He was 8-14-22 in his last 20 games last year, so compare that with his 12-6-18 in his first 20 this year. Maybe “late bloomer” is the term we’re looking for. There is one statistic for Zubrus that causes some head-scratching, even given the subjectivity of it – hits. He was credited with 17 in his first ten games (15 in his first five), six in the last ten. There is also his faceoff percentage – 50.3 percent in his first ten, 48.3 in his last ten. Given that his style is to use his size and strength as leverage in many situations, these hit and faceoff numbers might serve as an indicator that he’s been playing nicked – that he’s got some lingering knee problems that he’s been trying to play through.

Matt Bradley:

First ten games: 2-2-4, +2
Second ten games: 0-3-3, 0

Here is your odd stat for Bradley . . . two goals on nine shots in the first ten games (actually eight, he missed the first two), none on 20 shots in the last ten.

Boyd Gordon:

First ten games: 0-0-0, -1
Second ten games: 1-3-4, +2

OK, he played only one of the first ten games. While his scoring doesn’t jump off the sheet, he is winning 53.8 percent of his draws. He has been remarkably disciplined with the puck, too . . . he’s been credited with nine takeaways and only two giveaways. He doesn’t get a ton of ice time – about eleven and a half minutes a game – and the puck probably doesn’t spend much time on his stick when he is out there, but anytime you can point to a ratio like this, it’s a plus.

Brian Sutherby:

First ten games: 1-3-4, +3
Second ten games: 0-2-2, -2

He centers the line that will face the opponents’ top line more often than not, so you’d think he would be a good bellweather indicator of how the club is going. So, if the Caps are better in the second ten than the first ten, what’s up with his numbers? Well, if you look at them with Bradley’s, the third line hasn’t chipped in as much offense in the last ten games (only Ben Clymer’s two goals in his first game back as a forward).

Chris Clark:

First ten games: 3-6-9, +3
Second ten games: 2-5-7, +5

OK, he’s not the prototypical right wing. He is not a pure scorer. But the Caps are very much a “left-handed” team with Ovechkin and Alexander Semin on the left side to assume a heavy scoring role. His role has been to go get the puck and let Zubrus and Ovechkin do what they do. But he’s on a pace for 23-59-72. After 18 games last year (he’s missed the last two this year), he was 3-4-7. 5-11-16 looks a lot better. Now, you’re odd number . . . 41.3. That’s his faceoff winning percentage – he’s taken 30 draws in 18 games. That strikes The Peerless as a rather high number for a winger to be taking.

Matt Pettinger:

First ten games: 0-2-2, +1
Second ten games: 4-1-5, -2

Another one who missed substantial time to start the year (seven games). Since then, he’s been scoring goals at a 25-a-year rate. He’s getting second line minutes (about 18 a game over the last ten games), and he’s settled into a pace that could have him eclipse last year’s goal totals, even with the early time he missed.

Richard Zednik:

First ten games: 0-3-3, -5
Second ten games: 3-4-7, +1

His timing was awful. First, he gets out to a rocky start, raising questions of whether he was worth the effort to sign. Then, he gets a couple of goals and a couple of assists over a couple of games and gets hurt. He seems to be picking up where he left off, though, going 1-2-2 in his last two games since coming back. That second ten game line comes with only four games having been played.

Brooks Laich:

First ten games: 0-0-0, -4
Second ten games: 0-0-0, -3

I don’t know that there is a more disappointing player in the early going, which is really a shame given that he had a pretty decent season last year (7-14-21 in 73 games). The Peerless though he might be in a position to have a season similar to (if not of the magnitude of) Matt Pettinger last year – a substantial jump up in production. Instead, he’s taken a seat in the stands for eight of the last 12 games. Being -7 and winning less than 40 percent of his draws isn’t helping matters, either. One clings to the fact that last year after he played 12 games, he was a similar 2-1-3, -7 and hadn’t had a plus game yet. Perhaps it’s a slow start . . . that’s the branch we’ll cling to for the moment.

Rico Fata:

First ten games: 1-1-2, +3
Second ten games: gone

Fata did not play poorly in his ten games. Neither did he play especially well. What he did was give little evidence that he was going to be more than he had been – a player who can skate really, really fast and really, really can’t finish. No points in his last eight games probably sealed the evaluation.

Kris Beech:

First ten games: 1-5-6, +3
Second ten games: 0-1-1, even

The second line center position was there for the taking for someone willing to grab it by the throat and make it theirs. Beech was the favorite in a weak field, and he didn’t really do much to cement that role as his. The one area in which he shined – faceoffs – took a dip as time went on as well. After going 50-percent or better in draws in his first seven games, he’s been 50-percent or better in three of his last six. What else has tapered off is hits – a subjective measure, but perhaps an indicator of the urgency with which he does (and needs) to play. 12 credited in the first seven games, five in the last six. His game just doesn’t seem to have the sense of urgency it needs.

Ben Clymer:

First ten games: 0-0-0, 0 (he was playing defense)
Second ten games: 2-1-3, -2 (in eight games at forward)

Well, this is the kind of club you can have an experiment of playing a former defenseman, then turned forward, back on defense. You wouldn’t be as tempted to do it with a Cup contender. The experiment didn’t work, but it really can’t be pegged as a major reason for any Caps shortcomings early. Now that Clymer has been reunited with Bradley and Sutherby on the CBS line, things have a more normal look to them. He’s not getting the minutes he has as a defenseman (less than 14 minutes as as forward versus 19 a game as a defenseman), but he’s been more aggressive (14 hits versus five, 12 PIMs versus six).

Alexander Semin:

First ten games: 8-4-12, +1
Second ten games: 0-5-5, -1

Goal scorers are streaky. Peter Bondra certainly was that way for more than a decade with the Caps. Semin likely will be little different. But to dry up entirely in his last 12 games played . . . now he’s on IR. Here is your odd Semin number – six. He scored goals in six games, in which he also recorded six of his total ten hits. In 13 other games, he has a total of four hits. Chicken . . . egg?

Jakub Klepis:

First ten games: 0-0-0, even
Second ten games: 1-1-2, even

OK, if Beech won’t grab the second line center job by the throat, will Klepis? Well, not on the basis of the evidence so far. Klepis has the advantage of les history than Beech (conversely, he can be viewed as having more upside – he is less a finished product). Still, there is that gaping hole there. Klepis has a predilection for taking the lazy penalty – 16 minutes in 15 games (Peter Bondra spent an early season a few years back piling up minor penalties like manure in a cow pasture, but he had all those goals, too). The Peerless doesn’t look at Klepis as a lazy player as much as a “tentative” one. He still looks very often like a player who is trying to survive, more than play, a shift.

Tomas Fleischmann:

First ten games: 0-0-0, -1
Second ten games: 0-1-1, even

He had only one game in the first ten, seven in the last ten. He gives evidence of having skills with the puck, but he’s very much feeling his way out there. An offensive player with only nine shots on goal in eight games isn’t showing signs that he’s entirely comfortable out there.

Donald Brashear:

First ten games: 0-1-1, +2
Second ten games: 0-1-1, -2

The Peerless has seen a lot of comments along the lines of, “geez, who knew he’d look that good out there?” Brashear has skills that are confined within the rule book; he is not a liability out there in his limited minutes (which might be the key – he gets about seven and a half a game). That he’s had one fight is perhaps the most surprising number on his record thus far.

Overall:

The Caps are getting decent production from their top line of Ovechkin-Zubrus-Clark (30-27-57, +6 overall). But from there, on offense, the bottom drops out. If you look at the various second line possibilities . . .

Semin-Beech-Zednik: 12-22-34, -1 (total 46 man-games)
Semin-Klepis-Zednik: 12-17-29, -4 (48 man-games)
Semin-Beech-Pettinger: 13-18-31, +2 (45 man-games played)
Semin-Klepis-Pettinger: 13-13-26, -1 (47 man-games played)
Fleischmann-Beech-Pettinger: 5-10-15, +1 (34 man-games played)
Fleischmann-Beech-Zednik: 4-14-18, -2 (35 man-games played)
Fleischmann-Klepis-Pettinger: 5-5-10, -2 (36 man-games played)
Fleischmann-Klepis-Zednik: 4-9-13, -5 (37 man-games played)

. . . things don’t look so good. It looks a lot like a half-point a game coming out of the second line. If you look at all the players in these combinations – Semin, Beech, Zednik, Klepis, Pettinger, and Fleischmann – that’s a grand total of 17 goals, almost half of them from a player who had his last one a month ago today and is now injured. The club is getting nothing out of its second line, and thus makes the Caps that much easier to defend.

The first line gets an A- for its work thus far. It wouldn’t necessarily be the first line you’d have if the Caps were a contender, but it has done everything it could reasonably be asked to do. The others – especially the second line – have come up short . . . far short in some cases. The overall grade for the forwards:

C+