Sunday, March 16, 2008

The Real Standings...March 17th

A TWO GUINNESS Day: Caps 2 - Bruins 1 (OT/SO)

We’re long past the how…it only matters how many. And two points – no matter how ugly a manner obtained – is the object of the exercise.

The Caps picked up a hard-earned two points this afternoon against the Boston Bruins in a 2-1 shootout win.

The Bruins tried to rope-a-dope the Caps into an afternoon nap of a game, and it almost worked, the Bruins launching shot after shot at Caps goalie Cristobal Huet, and the Caps doing their part by trying—and failing, for the most part – to dent the four-wide defense the Bruins sought to employ to keep the Caps from gaining the Boston zone with any momentum.

In the end, though, it was a Russian twist on a St. Patrick’s Day weekend as Sergei Fedeorov netted the only regulation goal, and Alexander Semin and Viktor Kozlov potted goals in the shootout to earn the extra point. Who’d think that in a game where Russians were the only ones to rustle the twine, the one that would be absent from the party would be Alexander “Still on 99” Ovechkin.

Fedorov, who ended the game with more ice time than in any previous game in his short stint with the Caps (22:48) had another in a string of solid games. The goal was nice, but even without it (in which case, the Caps lose, of course), he was for the most part solid. Four shots on goal and 12 faceoff wins in 21 chances. For those of you keeping score, Fedorov has won 95 of 150 draws – 63.3 percent – since coming over from Columbus. If a club is going to play a possession game, it helps to start plays with the puck.

If there was a number that was cause for concern, it was this one – 21. That was the number of giveaways the Caps had (Boston had eight). And it was a group effort – 12 Caps (including Huet) had giveaways. Oddly enough, the player you might expect to have a couple – Alex Ovechkin (tied for third most in the league) – had none.

If you’re looking for a “grind your teeth into a fine powder” frustrating effort, you’d have to look to the Boston side of the ledger. Three times this year, Marc Savard registered six shots on goal. In each of them he registered at least a point. Today, Savard had eight shots in 21:44 of ice time and had two others blocked. His return on that investment in effort?...nada, zilch, the big zero. No goals, no assists, no points. At least Chuck Kobasew netted a goal for his six shots worth of effort.

The runner up for frustration, though, might be Ovechkin, who had six attempts blocked (yet another example of Boston’s “get in the way” defense).

If you’re not aware of what time of year it is, spend a couple of minutes looking at the time-on-ice chart. Note the shifts by period…

Eric Fehr: 6-2-2
Tomas Fleischmann: 5-2-2
Donald Brashear: 3-2-1

None saw the ice in overtime. The bench got a might shorter, one might say, as the game wore on. Not surprising, considering the stakes.

OK…now what was that UFB* in the third period?! Alex Ovechkin is skating into the Bruin zone, trying to split two defenders, and is taken down when Mark Stuart hooks his shins, and Ovechkin is called for diving? Uh, sorry, no. That qualified as among the dumber calls one will see this year, and one is at a loss to understand the rationale for it. Maybe for an instant the referee saw an “8” and thought “Alexander Semin,” who has from time to time been accused of sharpening his thespian skills in pursuit of the two-minute call.

So now it starts…six games on the road against teams with a combined record of 204-192-44. Three of the teams – Nashville, Florida, and Carolina – are either fighting to hold or fighting to gain playoff spots. The others all have records better than .500 at home. Four teams are fighting for that eighth playoff spot, two points separating them. In what is perhaps an odd scheduling quirk, only Florida and Washington play one another over the last stretch of games. None of the four play any of the other four teams between now and the end of the regular season. That will make for some intense scoreboard watching between now and April 6th, when the Flyers play the Penguins on the season’s last day.

Fun, ain’t it?

* “utter f**king bullsh*t”

Coming to the Game?...Thinking of Driving?

Think again.

Tomorrow is the annual St. Patrick's Day Parade in D.C., and parking will be next to impossible to come by. And, there are street closings to deal with, too. From the Metropolitan Police Department:

Street Closings and Parking Restrictions for St. Patrick's Day Parade

The Metropolitan Police Department wishes to advise the public that the St. Patrick Day’s Parade is scheduled to be held on Sunday, March 16, 2008. In order to facilitate this event, no parking will be allowed on the following streets between the 5 am and 3 pm on the day of the parade.

  • Constitution Avenue NW, between 6th Street and 23rd Street, NW
  • 7th Street NW, between Independence Avenue and Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
  • 14th Street NW, between Independence Avenue and Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
  • 12th Street NW, between the SE/SW Freeway and Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
  • 17th Street NW, between E Street NW and Independence Avenue, SW

The above listed streets will also be closed beginning at approximately 11 am until the completion of the parade. In addition 7th Street, NW, between Constitution Avenue and Independence Avenue, NW will be closed at approximately 7 am for parade assembly. Motorists should be alerted to these restrictions and expect possible traffic delays while traveling in the area of this event.


So, if Metro is an option for you, you might wish to take it, although work on the lines will add to travel times.


The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Bruins, March 16th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Well, it’s getaway day -- the last game before a six-game road-trip, and the Caps are hosting the Boston Bruins, the third game between these non-divisional rivals in the past 13 days. This will be the rubber game of the match, the Caps slapping the Bruins all over the Verizon Center ice for a 10-2 win, then giving a game away in the last five minutes in a 2-1 loss in Boston…

“Uh, did you know that it’s a little known fact…the Bruins were originally dressed in black and yellow for the colors of a store?”


Cliffy!...you came all the way down from Boston for the game?

“Yeah…I thought I needed a vacation, and noting says ‘relax’ like hockey.”

Never thought of it that way, but about the Bruins and those jerseys...a store?

“Yeah…the owner, Charles Adams, wanted his team to wear the colors of the grocery stores he owned.”

You’re pullin’ my leg.

“No, no, not at all…and Adams wanted a mascot that suggested strength and power.”

So they setlled on “Bruins”…

“Well, no one thought about ‘Ovechkins’ yet.”

Good one…speaking of Bruin history, what about the Kraut Line? How did that come about?

“Well, it’s a little known fact that The Kraut Line was an eatery in Boston that served Irish fare. And the day before St. Patrick’s Day – I think it was in 1941 – the power went out, and all the food spoiled. So when the patrons arrived the next day for a steaming order of corned beef and cabbage, the cabbage had gone sour, and the line of customers out the door would forever more be referred to as the, uh…’Kraut Line.’”

Uh Cliff?...I thought The Kraut Line was the Bruin line of Milt Schmidt, Bobby Bauer and Woody Dumart…that they actually got the name when they played together in Providence.

“Well, yeah…that would be the other ‘Kraut Line.’”

What about this team, Cliff…think they can hold on to a playoff spot?

“Oh, yeah…why, it’s a little known fact that when the Bruins have at least a three-point lead on the team just out of the playoffs going into the last ten games of the year, they have never lost that lead.”

You’re just making this up as you go along, aren’t you?

“What?!...Whaddya mean, ‘making it up?!...I never…uh, yeah, I’m making it up.”

Not too smart there, eh, Cliffy?

“Well, Here's a little known fact…The smartest animal is the pig. No, I'm telling you, your average oinker, yeah, yeah, yeah, scientists say; if a pig had thumbs and a language it could be trained to do simple manual labor.”

Like an NHL referee?

“Exactly!”

Hopefully, it won’t come to pigs…uh, referees deciding this in the manner that last Saturday’s game was decided. The Bruins could use the help, though. That 2-1 gift was the only game they’ve won in regulation in the last eight games (2-4-2, the other win coming yesterday in overtime against the Flyers).

Since taking it in the teeth against the Caps to start this eight-game slide, Boston is struggling mightily on offense – 11 goals, three of them yesterday (let’s hope that’s not a sign of breaking out). They’ve been shutout twice. No Bruin has more than two goals (Chuck Kobasew, Dennis Wideman, Marco Sturm), no Bruin has more than four points (Marc Savard, Sturm, Wideman).

Special teams have been special…in ways not to the liking of Bruin fans. The lack of productivity on the power play (3-for 37 – 8.1 percent) is matched only by the ineptitude of the penalty killers (22-for-34 – 64.7 percent).

It gets worse…Zdeno Chara, who might be expected to shadow (and we do mean, “shadow”) Alex Ovechkin whenever possible, did not make the trip with the team and will miss his fifth straight game.

A lot will depend on Tim Thomas in goal for the Bruins…if he gets the start. He played almost 62 minutes in the Bruins’ 3-2 overtime win yesterday, stopping 24 of 26 shots. His success against the Caps has been considerable – 8-1-1, 2.42, .922. But that one loss was a doozy, coming in the last game against the Caps…the one where he was pulled – twice – and gave up seven goals on 24 shots in 36:30 of total playing time.

If he doesn’t get the start, relief might be spelled, “Alex Auld.” Auld got the win in the 2-1 game last Saturday, stopping 23 of 24 shots. He does not, however, have overwhelming numbers against the Caps in his career – 2-2-0, 3.07, .872 – and he gave up three goals on ten shots in 23:30 in the 10-2 debacle on March 3rd.

This game all of a sudden looks like the Atlanta game Friday night – a wounded, weakened opponent coming to town, struggling at both ends of the rink. Difference is, the Bruins are still fighting for a playoff spot, and that makes them dangerous.

A wounded bear…dangerous. Maybe Adams was onto something.

The Caps don’t lack for motivation. A win draws them to within four points of Boston fo seventh in the East, perhaps two of Philadelphia (if they lose to Pittsburgh in regulation) for eighth. They could find themselves within three points of Carolina with two games yet to play against the Hurricanes. The ramifications of a single game multiply quickly at this time of year, so it’s a “take care of business” game for the Caps before they board the flight for Nashville…

Caps 4 – Bruins 2



Saturday, March 15, 2008

Ten...


We’re down to the last ten games – four at home, six on the road.

If you’re thinking “best case scenario,” it might be helpful to look at the best ten-game stretch in the Caps’ season to date. That would be the ten games starting with the 8-6 win in Ottawa on December 29th and ending with a 6-5 shootout win in Pittsburgh on January 21st. All told, the Caps were 8-2 in that run, with three extra-time wins included (two shootout wins and an overtime victory).

What did the Caps do right in those ten games?

Well, they sure didn’t lack for putting the puck in the net. 43 goals were scored in those ten games. Even accounting for the eight in Ottawa that started the streak, 35 in nine games is a very productive rate.

The hand in that glove was consistency…only twice in those ten games did the Caps fail to score at least four goals in a game. They scored goals in 21 of the thirty periods in regulation in those ten games.

The Caps were 12-for-46 on the power play (26.1 percent). And again…consistency. They scored power play goals in seven of the ten games.

12 players scored the 43 goals, 19 skaters had points. As one might expect, Alex Ovechkin led the goal scoring (12), but three other Capitals had at least five goals – Alexander Semin, Viktor Kozlov, and Mike Green. Similarly, Nicklas Backstrom leading the assist total with 12 is not a surprise, but five other Caps had at least five – Mike Green, Alex Ovechkin, Tomas Fleischmann, Jeff Schultz, and Boyd Gordon (keep the last three names in mind).

The Caps spread it around, but the big guns stepped up in a big way, too…

Ovechkin: 12-7-19
Green: 6-8-14
Backstrom: 3-12-15

It didn’t seem to matter if the Caps scored first or not, either. Five times they scored first (4-1), five times they didn’t (4-1).

So...what went wrong? Well, on the defensive side of the ledger, the 36 goals was problematic, although Ottawa (three times), Montreal, and Pittsburgh are top-end offensive teams, too (accounting for 20 of the 36 goals in five contests). The penalty killing was, to be charitable, challenged. 30 of 42 on the penalty kill (71.4 percent) was cringe-making.

Oddly enough, while the Caps were enjoying their most successful ten-game stretch on the scoreboard, Olaf Kolzig was enduring a stretch of less-than-Kolzig like play. He appeared in eight games in this ten-game stretch, going 6-1-0, 3.83, .852. Five times in eight appearances he gave up more than three goals, including four in 16 shots in 26 minutes of work in a 6-4 loss to Philadelphia. Brent Johnson had three appearances, going 2-1-0, 2.34, .916.

This stretch of games saw the last games played this year (so far) by Chris Clark and Michael Nylander. Clark, who has played only one game since November 28th, played in the Philadelphia game on January 13th, registering an assist in nine minutes of play. Nylander played the first six games of this ten-game stretch before succumbing to the shoulder injury that had impaired his play for quite some time. His last game also was the Philadelphia game, in which he was 1-1-2 in 20-plus minutes.

So…is there anything one can take from the best ten-game stretch of the season as the Caps head into their last ten regular season games? Probably not, at least not in ways that are obvious.

But there are some underlying things in these numbers to watch out for…

Balance and balance…there are two kinds reflected in the numbers that the Caps would hopefully emulate in the final stretch. The first is the ability to spread things around. Getting 12 players with goals and 19 with points is impressive. So is the fact that the Caps had nine players with at least five points. Balance among the players was – and probably will be – important. There was also the balance between the heavyweights and, for lack of a better term, the support players. The Caps, within the context of team wide support, still managed to get big numbers from their big guns. They – Ovechkin, Green, Backstrom – stepped up (please note, average age: 21). They’ll probably have to step up in the last ten as well. And Viktor Kozlov – who is 3-4-7, +10 in his last seven games – might be added to that mix.

Resiliency…the Caps were 4-1 in games in which the opposition scored first. Three times they gave up the first two goals and came back to win. So, a little adversity might come their way, but they have the capacity to deal with it. That might be especially important on the six-game road trip that starts next week.

Good-enough goaltending…One definition of good goaltending is giving up one fewer goal than your team scores. That was the case in the play of Olaf Kolzig in the ten-game stretch. Now, he is back to the “Godzilla” fans are used to (6-2-2 in his last ten decisions, 2.17, .923). To this add Cristobal Huet – 2-2-0, 1.91, .925 in four games since coming over from Montreal. Brent Johnson, who has had to sit lately, is 7-8-2 this season, but a respectable 2.67, .908 to go along with it. One would have to think that the Caps will have more-than-good-enough goaltending.

That stuff over on the right side of the scoresheet…the goals, assists, points, and plus-minus are things that folks pay attention to. But there is that stuff over on the right side of the NHL score sheet – the hits, takeaways, blocked shots, faceoffs – that will loom large in close games. The Caps have a tradition of being a lunch-pail, grind-it-out kind of team. While they have more skill now than in the days that reputation was forged, they still have to get that kind of effort…guys like Quintin Laing, Boyd Gordon, David Steckel, Matt Bradley, Shaoen Morrison…they’re going to have to populate that “right side” of the score sheet.

The pleasant surprise…Brooks Laich has 10 goals in his last 12 games. If you’d bet that result in Vegas, you’ve probably quit your job by now. It wasn’t the kind of thing one would have expected. In the last ten games, the Caps could certainly use another dose of unexpected pleasure. If you’re looking for some of that late magic, it would be nice to get it from a Tomas Fleischmann, an Eric Fehr, or a Boyd Gordon.

The point of this is that the Caps have it within them for a strong finish. 16 points in ten games has been a part of this season; it can be again. But you can’t get to 16 until you get to “2”…and that starts tomorrow.

A day trip to Kettler


It's been a while since we've been to Kettler Capitals Iceplex, so we thought we'd take in a practice this morning. It was different than those early training camp days...

As we took up a spot behind the glass at the balcony end of the ice, the first thing we noticed was the glass. Filled with streak and swirls and smudges from a season's worth of practice pucks, it was a little like looking out from the other side of a Jackson Pollack painting.

There was the thump-thump-thumping of shoes on metal as kids scampered up the steps or scurried through the stands.

13 water bottles standing sentinel on the top of the boards at the players' bench, waiting for the players to take the ice.

The advertisements around the boards, bright and freshly applied last September, now chipped and smudged from pucks and players spending six months breaking in the rink.

Youngsters asking their parents anxiously, "when are they coming out?"

Tom Poti and Milan Jurcina coming out first and engaging in a friendly contest in what seemed an effort to ring pucks off the crossbar from the blue line (Poti connected on his first chance).

The players coming out in twos and threes, skating around in long lazy circles as if they were trying to shake off the cobwebs of a game last night.

A nice crowd filling the stands and ringing the outside of the rink as the players started their drills.

A clot of fans over near the players' bench, hoping for a glimpse, a word, an autograph.

Sami Lepisto amusing himself over at the faceoff circle, resting on one knee while flipping pucks into the air and trying to catch them on the blade of his stick.

Eric Fehr being a whole lot more talkative than I imagined he would be out there...and giving Matt Bradley some grief, it seemed, when Bradley was having trouble finding the back of the net in a rebound drill.

Olie Kolzig pacing himself, as one might expect a veteran to do, but getting sufficiently peeved over allowing a goal in the rebound drill that he took the puck that eluded him and flung it off the rink into the netting above the glass.

The oohs and aahs of a sweet move or a snappy save.

Kids...everywhere.

Kettler isn't the novelty is was in September. It has the look and feel of a rink well used. It's a nice way -- and a nice place -- to spend a Saturday morning.

The Standings That Matter -- March 15th

A TWO-point night!...Caps 4 - Thrashers 1

Punch in…punch out.

It was a workman-like effort last night as the Caps made sure all the jobs were performed in a 4-1 win over the Atlanta Thrashers…

Ovechkin pots a goal…check (goal and an assist)

Hold Kovalchuk off the board…check (no points, one shot on goal)

Get supplemental scoring…check (Brooks Laich, third two-goal effort in his last nine games)

Play solid defense…check (12 shots on goal; Olaf Kolzig stopped all but one of them)

Get solid special teams play…check (1-for-3 on the power play, 3-for-3 on the penalty kill)

Bruce Boudreau called it, “as complete a game as we’ve played.” And it sure was that. Were there disturbing signs?...well, a couple, and we’ll get to that. But if coaches often lament “we didn’t play a full 60 minutes,” the Caps played a full and solid 60 minutes last night.

The Caps registered the first five shots of the game before the Thrashers could muster any (their first came 6:44 into the period). And when the Thrashers did manage to take the early lead on a well-placed Slava Kozlov slap shot over Kolzig’s left shoulder four seconds after a penalty to Shaone Morrisonn expired, the Caps treated it like a speed bump.

Camped behind the Atlanta net, Viktor Kozlov found Ovechkin pinching in from Thrasher goalie Kari Lehtonen’s right. Ovechkin managed to get a stick on the puck, but it squirted away…right to Laich, who lifted the puck over Lehtonen from the deep slot.

Laich wasn’t done yet, either. A Sami Lepisto drive from the top of the offensive zone was deflected downward and to Lehtonen’s left. As the puck inched around the left post, Laich – with only his right hand on the stick – deftly moved the puck back in front and tapped it into the cage an instant before the net was knocked off of its moorings. The goal was allowed after review, and the Caps had the lead they would not surrender. That makes 19 goals on the year for Laich…

Fun Brooks Laich fact…that makes ten goals in Laich’s last 12 games. That is not a misprint. Let’s compare that to the league’s top five goal-getters over the same stretch of games…

Ovechkin: 9
Kovalchuk: 8
Jarome Iginla: 9
Evgeni Malkin: 5
Vincent Lecavalier: 5

One might say Laich has been “Ovechkinesque” in his production. The 19 goals is, obviously, a career high. But it is not as if he is a complete stiff having a “lucky” year, either. He had 41 goals with Seattle in the WHL in 2002-2003 before making the jump to Binghamton in the AHL while in the Senators’ organization.

The rest of the Capitals’ scoring came in what had to be considered “sweet” plays…off an Erik Christensen hard-around in the Caps’ end on a Thrasher power play, Shaone Morrisonn won a fight with Tobias Enstrom for the puck along the side boards, working it to Sergei Fedorov. Fedorov threw the puck out into space at center ice, where Matt Cooke was already hot-footing it toward the Atlanta end. As the puck was sliding into the Thrasher end, goalie Lehtonen couldn’t decide to come out to play it, stay in his net, or go get a hot dog. By the time he decided (at which point the hot dog idea seemed the best available), Cooke had the puck and had only to rifle it through Lehtonen’s pads for the shorthanded goal.

The two-goal lead being the most dangerous in hockey, so they say, getting the next one was the next job on the ticket for the Caps. They did – in stunningly swift fashion. Ken Klee was whistled for a hooking penalty in the Atlanta end 1:03 into the third period. By the time the clock had ticked off four more seconds, Fedorov won a draw (he sure has done a lot of that since arriving in Washington), Mike Green collected the puck and pushed it to Ovechkin, and Ovechkin fired a sidewinder missle into the Thrasher cage.

Game over, man…game over.

The numbers are remarkable, largely for their utter predictability…

Alexander Ovechkin had seven shots (scoring once), attempting 13 (two blocked, four misses)

Mike Green also had seven shots, attempting 12 (one blocked, four misses)

Green led the club in ice time (he seems to be taking over from Poti in this regard, and there is a moderately interesting development here…Poti had no power play ice time last night; Green had 3:29 – every second the Caps had)

Matt Bradley had four shots on goal and two glorious chances that he was not able to convert (more a function of Lehtonen’s superb goaltending last night…it could have been another Boston Massacre but for his play). Bradley, if not reaching the prolific level of Ovechkin’s shots per game, is ramping up his offense…he has 29 shots on goal in his last 15 games. It might not sound like a lot, but averaging about 12:30 in ice time a game over those 15 games, it sounds a lot more impressive.

Who led the team in hits?...Brooks Laich. He also had the best faceoff winning percentage (69 percent off nine wins in 13 tries). He was also a +2 and bought a little girl in section 418 an ice cream cone between shifts. He had a good night.

Sami Lepisto registered his first NHL point (an assist) and was not shy about firing the puck, at least for a rookie call-up…four shots attempted. He had three blocked, but his miss was rather dramatic…Nicklas Backstrom skated alone down the right side in the Thrasher end, when picked up by a Thrasher defender, he curled off and found Lepisto skating down the other side. Lepisto gathered up the puck and fired a wicked shot that rang the post to Lehtonen’s far side. Would have been nice to see one Finn score on another.

In all this, though, there are some other things of which we took note, some things that are of budding concern…

As well as Brooks Laich has played, it would be nice to see Boyd Gordon get into the offensive ledger a bit more often. Gordon is without a point in his last 15 games, dating back to February 13th. He is doing the other things he needs to do (only -1 facing team’s better offensive players, winning a majority of his draws in nine of those 15 games), and that should be interpreted as a good sign – taking care of business.

Of the six defensemen, only two of them (Tom Poti and Mike Green) were credited with shots on goal, and Green had seven of the eight. Against a team as defensively challenged as Atlanta, it didn’t seem to matter much, but raising the threat of a blue line presence might free some space for the forwards in games against sturdier defenses.

We’ve become accustomed to Alex Ovechkin launching a lot of shots and netting a lot of goals. What we haven’t seen is the same thing from Alexander Semin. What we mean by that is that Semin is a more surgical shooter (his career shooting percentage is better, for example, 14.2 percent to 12.8). But Semin has two goals in his last nine games on 21 shots. In part, that 21 shots is a bit of a concern. In his first 44 games this year, Semin averaged 2.98 shots a game and had 19 goals. In his last nine, he’s averaged 2.33 shots a game and has two goals. There is a fine line between being selfish and being assertive. It’s especially hard for a player whose role includes that of “sniper.” We think Semin will regain that balance, but at the moment, he seems to have hit a dry patch brought on by not taking advantage of all the shooting opportunities he’s being presented, perhaps looking a little bit too much to “pass first.”

These, though, are all matters that can work themselves out by playing through them. And in the end, the only thing that matters these days is getting more goals than the other guy, whether a 7-6 or a 2-1 game, whether Ovechkin gets the hat trick or Matt Cooke pots a shorty.

The Caps are now three points behind Philadelphia, who faces a back-to-back on the road today and tomorrow against Boston and Pittsburgh. The Caps will face a Boston team on the back end of their own back-to-back when they visit Verizon Center tomorrow. Meanwhile, Carolina – which got pounded by Buffalo last night, 7-1 – has to play Ottawa on Sunday, which while a reeling club, has the firepower to give the Hurricanes a rough time.

All of a sudden, things aren’t looking so bad…as long as the Caps keep winning.



Friday, March 14, 2008

Something got me to wondering...

Ever since I read this blog entry over on Japers' Rink.

Why? Why is it that there is so little movement late in the season?

Leave it to the great sage, Barry Melrose, to help us figure it out.




The reason..."three-point games."

Let's look at some of the things JP pointed out...

"With 28 days left in the 2006-07 season, the New York Islanders - the eventual eighth seed in the East - were in seventh place in the conference, and the top-eight in the conference on that day (March 11) all made the playoffs."
That's the "what." What about the "why?" Here is something to think about...in those last 28 days, the Islanders won two games in a shootout, two extra points they would not have received in the "pre-shootout days." Toronto, which finished one thin point behind the Islanders, won three games in extra time during that span of days, but all were won in the overtime session, not the shootout (overtime was a part of the standings points landscape, pre-lockout). If the Islanders don't get the extra points from the shootout -- if those games remained ties -- they don't keep their spot.

Now, of course, it is not accurate to take just this slice of games out of an entire season of shootout-eligible play, and the absence of a shootout might change individual game dynamics. But the point here is how teams are able to hang onto their positions late in the year. And, in those last 28 days, the shootout worked to the advantage of the Islanders to hold on to what they had.

With 28 days left in the 2005-06 season, the Tampa Basement Lightning - the eventual eighth seed in the East - were in sixth place in the conference, and seven of the top eight in the conference on that day (March 21) made the playoffs. The exception? The Thrashers, who fell from eight, allowing the Habs to make the post-season. And how far did Montreal come? From one point behind Atlanta with 28 days left.
In 2005-2006, the Lightning won two games that went to shootout in those last four weeks. Montreal had no such wins in its last 28 days of play, while Atlanta -- the team that lost ground here -- also had no such wins. The Lightning bested Atlanta by two points in that season, and it was precisely a two win margin (the Lighting winning two more games, the Thrashers with two extra OT/SO losses) that provided the margin.

In the West, eventual eighth seed Edmonton was in ninth place on March 21 and six of the top eight teams in the conference on that day made the playoffs, the only exceptions being Vancouver and Los Angeles who got replaced by San Jose and Edmonton. With 28 days left in the season, the Oilers had the same number of points as L.A. and the Sharks were only one point behind that pair and two behind the Canucks.
Edmonton squeaked into the eighth spot three points ahead of Vancouver. However, unlike this year's version of the Oilers, the shootout was not kind -- they won only one such outcome in the season's last 28 days. San Jose, which was the other winner in the sweepstakes, recorded no such wins. The losers -- Vancouver and Los Angeles -- recorded one shootout win apiece. In this instance, the shootout seemed not to be a factor (no explanation is perfect, or even necessarily correct).

We don't pretend that ours is deep analysis; it merely serves to raise a question...does the shootout, presumably a device to enhance the excitement of individual games, actually serve to prevent the kind of jockeying and drafting that might otherwise take place late in the year because teams "above the line" scratch out the extra point here or there? Once teams have sorted themselves out in the first 70 games or so, does the shootout -- and the extra point it offers in a gimmick -- then serve to cement that sorting for the last dozen games?



The Washington Capitals' Nominee for the Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy -- Quintin Laing




"...given to the National Hockey League player who best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship, and dedication to hockey."


That is the citation that accompanies the Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy. For those of you not familiar with the manner in which the trophy came to be named for Masterton, here is the Wikipedia entry on the unfortunate events...

"On January 13, 1968, four minutes into a game against the Oakland Seals at the Met Center, Masterton was carrying the puck into the Seals' zone. Shortly after completing a pass to teammate Wayne Connelly, he was checked by Oakland's Larry
Cahan and Ron Harris and fell backwards onto the ice head-first…Before he lost consciousness, a teammate who rushed to his aid heard Masterton murmur, "Never again. Never again."

Masterton sustained a massive brain hemorrhage…The injury was so severe that doctors were unable to perform surgery, and Masterton died two days later without ever regaining consciousness."


If ever anything good can come out of such tragedy, there were two things in the aftermath of Masterton's death worth noting. First, it intensified the debate over mandatory use of helmets. This rule was implemented in the 1979-1980 season. It seems reasonable to say that it has prevented many injuries and perhaps a number of deaths.

The second item is the trophy, which stands as acknowledgment of a player's exhibiting those character traits that are perhaps most associated with the sport -- perseverance, sportsmanship, and dedication.

The Washington Capitals have nominated Quintin Laing for the 2008 award, and it would be hard to find anyone who exemplifies perserverance and dedication more than Laing. Fans see his seeming disregard for his well-being as he flings himself in front of 100-mile an hour pucks. They see the fact that he's worked himself up through the minors to get an opportunity on an NHL sheet of ice. But what fans probably don't know about is the journey, told by Laing himself in the fine article by Mike Vogel...

"It wasn't easy. First two years in the East Coast [League] and then six in the AHL. You've just got to love the game and love what you do and I do. I just kept playing hard and hoping for a chance. I got it this year, thanks to [Caps coach] Bruce Boudreau]. The last 40 games have been just a dream every day. Every day has been just like a living dream.”

With the trophy, there is a grant from the Professional Hockey Writers Association that is awarded annually to the Bill Masterton Scholarship Fund, based in Bloomington, Minn., in the name of the Masterton Trophy winner. Quintin Laing would be a fitting honoree in the tradition of the award, a worthy addition to the list of great NHLers who have been recipients.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Thrashers, March 14th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

“shhhhhhhh…be vewy vewy quiet.we’re hunting thwashuhs…”

Oh, sorry…shouldn’t you be hunting wabbits…uh, rabbits?

“Wabbits don’t pway hockey…they can’t get the hewwmets on their heads…hehehehehe.”

I see your point. Have you had much luck bagging thwashuhs…uh, thrashers?

“Not weawwy. They’re pwetty much dead awweddy.”

Yeah, they’ve had a tough time lately.

Atlanta is ending the season very much in the way they started it, and that is not a good thing for the Thrashers. They started the season 0-6-0, upon which they relieved Bob Hartley of his coaching duties. Well, now they are in the middle of a 2-6-4 run that has driven them to the bottom – almost – of the Eastern Conference. This morning the Thrashers are in 14th place and gasping for air.

Just as the 0-6-0 start was not a result of accident, so the misfortune of these last dozen games has not been the product of chance:

Record: 2-6-4
Goals for/against: 29/46
Power play: 10/49 (20.4%)
Penalty killing: 44/54 (81.5%)
Shots for/against-per game: 25.6/36.6
Record in three-or-more-goal margin games: 0-4
Record in extra-time games: 1-4

This just isn’t a very good hockey team at the moment. They’ve won one game in regulation since February 2nd (that was last night). They are a defensive disaster. Here is an indicator…they have no players – none – who have played at least 20 games this year and are on the plus side of the ledger. Even Colby Armstrong, who came over from Pittsburgh in the Marian Hossa deal on deadline day, has managed a -4 in eight games with the Thrashers.

If you’re wondering about the big guys and their performance during this drought…

Ilya Kovalchuk: 8-5-13, +3
Mark Recchi: 2-7-9, -4
Eric Perrin: 2-4-6, -6
Slava Kozlov: 1-4-5, -5
Bobby Holik: 2-4-6, -3

Tobias Enstrom, who was making a push to get some rookie of the year consideration, has fallen on some hard times of his own on the blue line. He has two assists and is a -8 over the last dozen games.

But when Atlanta plays the Caps, you can’t discount the fact that some of those same Thrashers have saved their best efforts for those games…

Kovalchuk: 35 games, 20-24-44, +15
Recchi: 88 games, 46-58-104, +22
Armstrong: 8 games, 3-5-8, -2
Holik: 84 games, 22-24-46, +10

Over the last dozen games, that 46 goals allowed sticks out. Can’t necessarily blame that one on Marian Hossa’s departure (maybe Pascal Dupuis was the key all along?). Seven times they have allowed more than three goals, five times they have allowed at least five goals. Part of that is the fact that Atlanta goaltenders have been the targets in an arcade game – the Thrashers are allowing 11 more shots a game over the last dozen contests than they’ve registered on offense – and it’s showing up in the goaltending statistics.

Kari Lehtonen, who was the goaltender of record in last night’s 6-4 win over Calgary, is 1-5-3, 3.88, .893 in ten appearances over the last dozen games. He’s 8-3-2, 2.56, .919 in 13 career games against the Caps. If he doesn’t get the call in the back half of the back-to-back, Johan Hedberg is 1-1-1 in four appearances over the last dozen games, 3.37, .902. He is 6-2 (with two ties), 2.66, .911 in 10 lifetime appearances against the Caps…it sure seems like more, doesn’t it?

Looking at the Thrashers, it’s a case of a damaged but dangerous club. Losing Hossa robbed them of a lot of offense. But this is not, and hasn’t been a very good defensive team all year (tied for last in goals against-per-game, 27th in penalty killing). They are, however, 4-2 against the Caps this year, with two of the wins coming in extra time. So, while the Thrashers have fallen on hard times, that probably won’t be much to bank on for the Caps if the red-white-and-blue don’t bring their A-game.

The Caps need to get off fast, then stand on the Thrashers’ throats. Last night Atlanta came from three goals down to beat Calgary in a game that had no meaning, save pride, for the Thrashers. If the Caps do not tend to business, they might take this – if not to their @#$%ing graves, as Herb Brooks might put it -- to the off season as the one in the stretch run they let slip away.

We don’t think they will, though (do we ever?)…

Caps 5 – Thrashers 2

Thursday, March 13, 2008

It could happen...

Philadelphia has 11 games left. They have a five-point lead on the Caps for eighth place in the Eastern Conference.

The Flyers have had 11 game stretches that have not gone well...

November 28 - December 22: 3-7-1

The Flyers beat Carolina (3-1) in the first game of this 11-game stretch and pounded Pittsburgh (8-2). Their losses were to some pretty good teams -- the only losses to non-top-eight teams were to Phoenix and to Buffalo (twice, once in a shootout).

February 6 - February 28: 1-8-2

This stretch started with a 4-3 loss to the Capitals and launched the Flyers on a ten-game winless streak. They ended the slide in the 11th game of this run, a 4-3 shootout win over Buffalo. Again, they lost to some pretty good teams here. The losses to non-top-eight teams were to Washington, the Islanders, Tampa Bay, and Florida (in overtime).

February 21 - March 12 (current): 5-3-3

While their most recent 11 games suggests a reversal of fortune from those two bad stretches, they are only 2-2-1 in their last five, all against non-top-eight teams. They've lost to Bufflo and Toronto (twice, once in overtime).

Their last 11 is quite a challenge (as if the Caps' isn't), their records against those teams this season in parentheses:
@Boston (1-1-1)
@Pittsburgh (4-1-0)
Atlanta (3-0-0)
NY Rangers (1-3-2)
NY Islanders (5-1-0)
@NY Rangers (1-3-2)
@New Jersey (1-5-0)
@NY Islanders (5-1-0)
@Pittsburgh (4-1-0)
New Jersey (1-5-0)
Pittsburgh (4-1-0)
The Flyers are 4-2-2 since losing Mike Richards to injury, but in those eight games, they've played only two top-eight teams -- the reeling Senators and the Rangers.

And, speaking of injury, Richards remains out with a hamstring injury, Joffrey Lupul just returned on March 12th after sustaining a high-ankle sprain, and Daniel Briere has been dealing with shoulder problems. Simon Gagne is out for the year with a concussion.

Of course, none of this matters if the Capitals don't win, and in the end that is the only thing the Caps hold in their hands -- the ability to put pressure on a team like the Flyers by just winning.

Him again?


#23 to 300


With last night's win -- his 300th as an NHL goaltender -- Olaf Kolzig joins some select company...


You'll note that 10 of the 23 goaltenders on this list are in the Hall of Fame. Of the six yet active goaltenders, four -- Brodeur, Belfour (currently playing in Europe), Joseph, and Hasek -- are virtual locks for induction when eligible. Chris Osgood has been a member of two Stanley Cup winners and has a Jennings Trophy on his resume. He hs six 30-win seasons, but no 40-win campaigns. Kolzig has taken his team to a Stanley Cup final and has a Vezina Trophy on his mantle. He has five 30-win seasons and a 40-win year.

He could pass Richter and Broda in wins this year, with an outside shot at passing Smith to crack the top-20 (the question being one of how many starts he gets in the last 11 games). If he returns for the 2008-2009 season, he could perhaps pass Burke and Lumley.

No matter...for a guy who waited more than five years after being drafted for his first win (January 27, 1995 -- against the Islanders) and nine years to become the number one goalie for the Caps, for a guy who ranks fourth in career wins among goalies having played for a single team, he has had a remarkable career characterized by skill and fierce determination. He is an icon in Washington sports --for his work both on and off the ice -- deserving of all the respect and good wishes that come with his achievement.

Congratulations, Olie, on #300...and here's to lots more before you hang up your mask.

A TWO-point night: Caps 3 - Flames 2

Daddy?

“yes, son…”

I thought we were going to see a hockey game tonight.

“We did…the Caps and the Flames”

That was hockey?...all they did was whack each other’s sticks, take penalties, and skate around the middle of the ice.

“Well, son…that’s called ‘Keenan hockey.’”

It’s boring.

“Yes, son, it is.”

Boring or not – and the Caps did their level best to lift the excitement level on “Back to the ‘90’s” night – the good guys skated off with a 3-2 win to keep their flickering playoff hopes alive and give Olaf Kolzig his 300th career win, all as a member of the Capitals. So bore away, Flames, bore away.

On the other hand, Alex Ovechkin – the subject of his own personal camera following him around – had two goals, including the game-winner, 11 shots, more than 24 minutes of ice time…we’re guessing fans got their money’s worth following him around.

The story, though, was Kolzig. He looked very rusty in the first ten minutes, allowing rebounds on shots he would normally swallow up or steer out of trouble. But once he had his legs under him, he was superb. Calgary managed goals only on 5-on-3 power plays (ok, technically the second one just expired when the Flames scored). True, the Flames were essentially a one-line club (Jarome Iginla, Kristian Huselius, and Daymond Langkow combined for 11 of the Flames’ 26 shots, had both goals, and had all three points tallied by forwards). But Kolzig was up to the task when called upon, especially in that first period, when Calgary was launching shots from everywhere (17 in all in the first).

There were some pretty funky numbers in this one, as well as good news elsewhere…

Calgary registered 12 blocked shots in the first period – the Caps, none. Thing is, though, the Flames finished with 17, the Caps 15.

John Erskine skated eight shifts for the night – three of them ended in penalties…he had two of them. Erskine skated only one shift in the second period, taking a penalty.

The minutes Erskine relinquished were picked up by Mike Green, who finished with 30:58. His even strength time alone (18:53) was more than the total time of 12 skaters. His 11:33 of power play time was more than the total for four other skaters.

If the Caps come up short in the stretch drive, it won’t be because Ovechkin failed to deliver. In six March games, he is now 8-6-14, +7. This was his 11th multi-goal game of the year and his 27th multi-point game.

Kolzig is now 6-3-2, 2.18, .923 since February 1st. Anyone think he’s been the problem?

Speaking of problem, how many chances did the Caps have tonight that they didn’t bury…Alexander Semin had Kiprusoff down and an open net and couldn’t get a backhand past the fallen goalie. Matt Bradley sent a puck behind Kiprusoff and through the crease. Ditto Tomas Fleischmann (who had his two chances, which coach Bruce Boudreau says he gets every game…he really needs to bury these). Eric Fehr had a chance from in close that Kiprusoff snatched with his glove. Ditto Ovechkin, who was left to gaze into the rafters.

In the points watch…Ovechkin needs four goals for 60, three points for 100, and he has two home games coming up. There seems to be a convergence taking place – the Caps remaining playoff chances might hinge on his hitting both this weekend.

Sergei Fedorov had perhaps his best game as a Cap. He didn’t register anything on the score sheet, but he was more dominant in the offensive zone than he has been in earlier games, and he was very good in the circle (winning 12 of 21 draws).

Perhaps it was a bad night for them, but it was painful to watch any other group than Calgary’s first line try to do anything with the puck. It is not an especially adept passing team, at least it wasn’t on this night. They looked a lot like the Caps of the early season – that is not a compliment.

This was only the sixth one-goal loss in regulation for Calgary in 34 one-goal games.

Ninth straight 17,000+ home crowd.

The Caps caught a break tonight, as both teams in front of them – Buffalo and Philadelphia – lost in regulation. They kept pace with Carolina, which won in Chicago this evening. The Caps remain seven points behind Carolina with one game in hand and two games remaining against the Hurricanes. They need all six of those points to have any chance at all of winning the Southeast.

Five points out…11 games to play. Philly still has three games against the Penguins, two against the Devils, two against the Rangers. Buffalo still has Ottawa twice, Montreal twice, and Carolina. Of course, the Caps still have that six-game road trip coming.

This could yet be an interesting finish.

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Flames, March 12th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Things have come to a pretty pass,
Our chances are growing flat,
For you like this and the other
While I go for this and that.
Goodness knows what the end will be;
Oh, I don't know where I'm at...
It looks as if we two will never be one,
Something must be done.

You say CAL-garry and I say Cal-guh-ree,
You say OH-fense and I say OFF-ense;
CAL-garry, Cal-guh-ree, OH-fense, OFF-ense,
Time for tonight’s face off.
You like the bisket and I like the basket,
You like CAL-garry and I like Cal-guh-ree;
Bisket, basket, CAL-garry, Cal-guh-ree!
Time for tonight’s faceoff!
But oh! If after tonight’s face off,
Then we must part.
And oh! If we ever part,
Then that might break my heart!
So, if you like CAL-garry and I like Cal-guh-ree,
I'll say CAL-garry and give up Cal-guh-ree.
For we know we need each other,
So we better call the calling off.
Time for tonight’s face off!


What is it with the Caps facing hot teams lately? Tonight, it’s Calgary’s turn to test the men in red, and the Flames are tuning up for the playoffs. Leaders of the Northwest Division, third in the Western Conference, Calgary comes to DC on a nice run in their last ten games:

Record (last ten games): 7-1-2
Goals for/against: 25/16
Power play: 6/49 (12.2 percent)
Penalty killing: 45/53 (84.9 percent)
Shorthanded goals: 4
Record in one-goal games: 4-0-2


Calgary has a simple formula these days…”Iggy and Kipper, and things’ll be chipper.” Jarome Iginla – the player, who if he played in the East, might be considered the best in the game – has had a hand in almost half of the Flames’ goals in the last ten games (6-6-12, +7). What Alex Ovechkin brings to the Caps – scoring, hitting, and a flair for the dramatic – Iginla brings to the Flames. The tale of the tape:

Goals: Ovechkin 54/Iginla 41
Assists: Iginla 41/Ovechkin 41
Points: Ovechkin 95/Iginla 82
Game-winning goals: Iginla 9/Ovechkin 9
Power play goals: Ovechkin 18/Iginla 14
Power play assists: Ovechkin 14/Iginla 13
Power play scoring: Ovechkin 32/Iginla 27
Hits: Ovechkin 190/Iginla 83
Fights: Iginla 5/Ovechkin 0
Iginla vs. Washington: 13 games, 4-7-11, -4
Ovechkin vs. Calgary: 1 game, 0-2-2, +1


One plays the right side, one the left. This is one of those games-within-a-game that makes for entertaining watching, “OvechKam” or no OvechKam.

Iginla hasn’t quite been alone in his contributions in this ten-game run:

Kristian Huselius: 1-6-7, +4 (4-3-7, -8 in 17 career games against the Caps)

Daymond Langkow: 2-5-7, +6 (8-10-18, +3 in 28 games against the Caps)

Alex Tanguay: 5-1-6, +5 in seven games, three missed due to a neck injury (2-2-4, -1 in 8 games against the Caps)


Then there is the guy who will likely be sent out to defend Ovechkin at every opportunity – Dion Phaneuf. Phaneuf is as complete a defenseman there is in the game. He is ranked among the defenseman leaders in several league categories:

Points: 49 (T-6th)
Goals: 14 (T-4th)
Assists: 35 (10th)
PIMs: 163 (1st)
Power play goals: 9 (T-1st)
Power play assists: 19 (T-11th)
Power play points: 28 (5th)
Game-winning goals: 3 (T-5th)
Hits: 172 (6th)
Time-on-ice: 26:32 (5th)


Again…if this guy is in the East, he’s a Norris finalist, if he isn’t already. He will be a perennial in this trophy category.

But on to Kipper. Miikka Kiprusoff started slowly this year, allowing three or more goals in 14 of his first 17 games, going 6-8-3, 3.19, .879 in the process. However, in this ten game run, he is 5-1-2 in eight appearances, 1.62, .953.

Calgary comes to DC healthy (only David Moss is reported injured), rested (only two games since March 4th), and motivated (tied with Colorado in points for the Northwest Division lead and the Western Conference’s three-seed). They are also a superb road team, with an 18-13-1 record away from Pengrowth Saddledome.

For a club reeling after two difficult, self-inflicted losses, fighting for a playoff spot, this is as stiff a test as one could muster. Calgary is a hard team to play against, and they have enough skill to make a team not paying attention pay dearly. More often than not, though, Calgary will play things close – it is what they do best. While they have a .500 record in two goal games (8-8) and three-or-more-goal games (10-10), they dominate one-goal games (18-5-10).

Whether this is a one-goal or a five-goal game, a 60-minute game or a shootout, the Caps have to be on the long end of it. It’s really just that simple at this point. And that’s why…

Caps 3 – Flames 2

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Masterton Nominees have a Capital look

James Mirtle reports that 16 teams have announed their nominees for the Masterton Trophy. According to NHL.com:
The Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy is an annual award under the trusteeship of the Professional Hockey Writers' Association and is given to the National Hockey League player who best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship, and dedication to hockey. The winner is selected in a poll of all chapters of the PHWA at the end of the regular season.
As Mirtle reports, the nominees are:

Boston - Glen Metropolit
Buffalo - Paul Gaustad
Calgary - Owen Nolan
Carolina - Glen Wesley
Colorado - Andrew Brunette
Detroit - Chris Chelios
New Jersey - Colin White
N.Y. Islanders - Brendan Witt
Ottawa - Luke Richardson
Philadelphia - Jim Dowd
Pittsburgh - Ty Conklin
St. Louis - Manny Legace
Toronto - Jason Blake
Vancouver - Trevor Linden

As you can see (in bold) four of the 16 nominees to date have spent time in our part of the world. Congratulations to all the nominees announced thus far.

The only standings you'll ever need

As we head into the final stretch, here it is, boiled down...


Place yer bets, place yer bets...

Monday, March 10, 2008

All-in-all, not a bad ending...after eight overtimes

From the "are they still playing?" file...

They played a hockey game in Michigan last Saturday night...and almost into Sunday morning. It was the Michigan high school Division I championship, played by Orchard Lake St. Mary's and Marquette at Compuware Arena in Plymouth Township, MI. 109 minutes of hockey, 64 of which were played in overtime, ended at 11:45 p.m. Saturday night. There were 91 saves, 53 of them on the overtime sessions. Needless to say, St. Mary's goaltender Ryan Morley-Stockton and Marquette netminder Jon Nezich were the stars of the game.

Shane Halaas, a forward for St. Mary's, was no stranger to the events that unfolded. Last November, he played in the longest football game in state history in the finals (five overtimes).

The Detroit Free Press has articles on the marathon that you can find here and here. They also have a photo gallery you can see here.

Meanwhile, the Detroit News has a look here.

Randy Allen, the Michigan High School Athletic Association assistant director in charge of hockey, in an interview with ESPN Radio, indicated that one team was awarded the trophy, the other the medals, and each of the schools will receive the other shortly to complete the well-deserved acknowledgments.

We'll leave it to young Mr. Halaas for the final word...
"Everyone will get a ring and everyone is happy. After eight overtimes, there is no loser. It ended the right way."

They're all champs...



photo: Ankur Dholakia/The Detroit News

Ovechkin named first star of the week

From the NHL...

Washington Capitals left wing Alex Ovechkin, New Jersey Devils goaltender Martin Brodeur and San Jose Sharks center Joe Thornton have been named the NHL's 'Three Stars' for the week ending March 9.

FIRST STAR -- ALEX OVECHKIN, LW, WASHINGTON CAPITALS

Ovechkin reached the 50-goal mark for the second time in his three NHL seasons Mar. 3, scoring a hat trick and adding two assists in Washington's 10-2 victory over the Boston Bruins. He reached the milestone in his team's 67th game of the season, the fastest since the Pittsburgh Penguins' Jaromir Jagr and Mario Lemieux (59th game) and the Buffalo Sabres' Alexander Mogilny (63rd game) in 1995-96. Ovechkin later scored a pair of goals in a 3-1 victory over the Sabres Mar. 5, tallied one assist in a 2-1 loss to the Bruins Mar. 8 and finished the week with two assists in a 4-2 loss to the Penguins Mar. 9. Ovechkin leads the NHL scoring race with 95 points (54-41--95) in 70 games.