The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Islanders, March 3, 2007

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Kris Beech
Donald Brashear
Chris Clark
Ben Clymer
Rico Fata
Jamie Heward
Bryan Muir
Richard Zednik
Dainius Zubrus
Brian Pothier
Brian Sutherby
Shaone Morrisonn
Boyd Gordon
Steve Eminger
Alexander Semin
Brooks Laich
Alexander Ovechkin
Mike Green
Olaf Kolzig
Brent Johnson

That was your opening night lineup for the Caps last October. Almost half of it spent significant time injured, are currently injured, have been traded or waived, or have been sent to Hershey. To the players remaining, add Eric Fehr and Matt Pettinger to the injury list (Pettinger perhaps both beginning and ending the season injured). That’s fully half of 22 players turned over in some fashion this year. It is a lot of churning for a young club with depth issues to have to endure, and the record reflects that.

Fans will say, “well, Buffalo has injuries,” or “Anaheim has had injuries.” Well, gee…Buffalo was a better (not to mention deeper) club coming into the season. They were, after all, a conference finalist last year. Anaheim was a pre-season favorite to reach the Cup final. The Peerless doesn’t recall the Caps being part of either of those conversations. The club that the Caps will finish with – starting tonight against the New York Islanders – will be looking more to next year than to anything with respect to the 2006-2007 season.

The Islanders, on the other hand, have much to play for. The Peerless (certainly not alone in this respect) felt at the start of the year that the Islanders would explore new vistas in suckitude, the club being run by a fool (the owner), a novice (the general manager) and an outcast (the coach). The Islanders are not guaranteed a playoff berth just yet – they are only one point ahead of Montreal, but with three games in hand -- but they have shown a resiliency and a grit to make it this far and remain in the playoff mix.

The Islanders are 6-1-1 in their last eight games, the last seven of which were played on Long Island. Only two of those games were decided by more than one goal, which explains the Islanders’ comparatively thin 25-22 scoring advantage over this stretch. In the six one-goal decisions, the Isles are 5-0-1 (including three extra time wins). It is the photo-negative of the Capitals, who since the 2-0 loss to Pittsburgh on February 3^rd have had nine one-goal games in 12 contests, going 2-2-5. One of those wins, though, was over the Islanders – the Capitals’ only shootout win this season.

The Islanders have been something of an odd club in this eight-game stretch, especially with respect to special teams. Four goals in 21 power play chances is certainly respectable (19.0 percent), but killing only 20 of 27 shorthanded situations (74.1 percent) really isn’t. They’ve given up at least one power play goal in six of the last eight games.

Jason Blake, who in most respects seems to be the skating embodiment of the Islanders’ personality, has been the go-to guy over these last eight – 5-4-9, +6. But, he hasn’t been without some support. Trent Hunter has chipped in a 5-1-6, even line, while Mike Sillinger and former-Cap Chris Simon have chipped in three goals apiece. This constitutes almost two-thirds of the Islanders’ scoring in their last eight games.

Rick DiPietro has gotten the call in all of the last eight, going 5-1-1. He’s carried a 2.68 GAA and .912 save percentage over this span, pretty much mirror images of his season numbers of 2.67, .915. He is 4-2-1, 1.99, .928 in his career against Washington.

These are teams on opposite sides of the divide – the Isles are in the top eight, the Caps are not. The Isles were buyers at the deadline (Ryan Smyth, Richard Zednik), the Caps were sellers (Dainius Zubrus, Zednik, Lawrence Nycholat, Jamie Heward). The Isles have been winning one-goal games, the Caps have been losing them. The Isles have been proficient in extra time games, the Caps have been struggling.

But while the teams are on opposite sides of the divide, they are not that far apart. The Isles have 25 goals in their last eight games, the Caps 24. The Isles have yielded 22 goals in their last eight, the Caps 26. The possibility looms large that this game won’t end until around 10:00. “Shootout” is in the air…maybe one like the ten-rounder the Caps endured on Thursday against the Lightning.

It says here, that’s where we’re going. Alexandre Giroux with the winner in a shootout . . .

Caps 4 – Islanders 3.