Saturday, December 15, 2007

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lightning, December 15th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!

And for tonight’s back-end of a back-to-back weekend, we have what is something of a rarity lately…a divisional matchup (we also have all of our usual guests out holiday shopping...). Over the next 34 days, the Caps play Southeast Division teams twice – both times against the Lightning.

And aren’t the Lightning the Jekyll and Hyde team of the 2007-2008 season. By day (or on the road), they are the Henry Jekyll with a 3-11-1 record. By night (in the confines of St. Pete Times Forum) they are the Edward Hyde that commits all sorts of evil acts on visitors on the way to an 11-4-2 record.



The Jekyll and Hyde thing is reflected in both the team statistics and those for the big scorers on this club…

This is a home game for the Bolts, so the Caps will have their work cut out for them. The disparity in the numbers seems a reflection of precisely the kind of team Tampa Bay is -- top heavy with talent. At home, the Lightning can exploit favorable matchups, but on the road the deficiencies in talent underneath the top group are laid bare when those teams can do a better job of using matchups and last change to get the players they want onto the ice against Tampa's big guns.

If you're looking for a "road warrior" among the Caps, Alex Ovechkin immediately comes to mind, of course. In fact, he does lead the team in road scoring (10-9-19 in 16 games). But this might be a night for Viktor Kozlov to shake some dust off. He has had some career success against the Lightning (6-24-30 in 41 games), and he is third on the Caps in road scoring this year (3-7-10 in 16 games).

Then, there is Alexander Semin. Even with the injury bug that hit him to start the year, he has only two goals in 15 games. If the Caps have any prayer of getting back into the playoff race, that pace of production has to change for the better. He'll find no better opponent against whom he can start that process. In 14 career games against Tampa, he is 10-6-16.

Just as scoring among the big four at home is a key for Tampa Bay, so the Russians might be for the Caps tonight. It might be especially true given the continuing saga that is Tampa Bay goaltending. Johan Holmqvist is clearly the number one guy for the Lightning, and he has a 5-2-0 career record against the Caps. However, he's been rather grim in his last two outings -- four goals on 22 shots in less than 35 minutes of work against Toronto, and another four goals only six shots in less than 14 minutes work in his last outing, against Calgary. Backup Marc Denis has only one win this year, but that came last Tuesday against Montreal. Flip a coin...

Brent Johnson seems likely to get the start tonight with an opportunity to get the Caps moving back in the right direction. He's had some success against Tampa (4-2-1-2, 2.48, .917 for his career), although he took the loss in the his only appearance against the Lightning this year (four goals allowed in a 5-2 loss in Tampa on November 16th).

This could be a wild one. Tampa is a juggernaut at home, and the new Caps under Bruce Boudreau are a much more aggressive team with the puck. We might see a game on the far side of 10 goals scored....

Caps 6 - Lightning 5

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