And now, the other half of the Eastern semifinal...
Pittsburgh Penguins (2) vs. New York Rangers (5)
Season series:
Oct. 23: at Pittsburgh 1 – Rangers 0
Nov. 8: At Rangers 4 – Pittsburgh 2
Nov. 17: Rangers 4 – at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
Dec. 18: at Rangers 4 – Pittsburgh 0
Jan. 14: at Pittsburgh 4 – Rangers 1
Mar. 18: at Rangers 5 – Pittsburgh 2
Mar. 30: at Pittsburgh 3 – Rangers 1
Mar. 31: at Rangers 2 – Pittsburgh 1 (OT)
Caps fans, take solace…the Rangers have never beaten the Pittsburgh Penguins in a playoff series (at least the Caps won once). The Penguins are 3-0 against the Blueshirts in their playoff history, the latest a 4-1 series win in 1996. So, it’s been a while.
This is a difficult series to get a handle on, for a lot of reasons. First, Pittsburgh man-handled the Ottawa Senators in round one, but it isn’t as if anyone really expected the Senators to do much after their second half swoon (16-21-4). Second, the Rangers certainly haven’t been in awe of Pittsburgh’s fire power, going 5-3-0 in this year’s series and going 3-3-2 last year. They’ve played the Penguins a little more than even. Third, while Marc-Andre Fleury might have quieted critics of his playoff performance with his 4-0, 1.26, .955 performance against the Senators, we’re not sure he’s silenced them entirely. Fifth, while the Penguins come in hot on the result of their sweep of Ottawa, the Rangers dispatched what was likely a superior opponent – not to mention a demon of theirs – the New Jersey Devils in five games, their lone loss coming in overtime. Sixth, will Jagr comparing Sidney Crosby to Mario Lemieux – not in terms favorable to Crosby – give the kid an incentive? Seventh (trust me, we’re getting to the end of this), will the controversy about the “Avery Rules” be a distraction to the Rangers? Eighth…with Jagr perhaps not even returning to the NHL next year, and this being a series against his old club, will he be inspired to leave a skate marks on the Penguins on the way through? That’s a lot of stuff going on…
The season’s history between these two teams, from Pittsburgh’s perspective – reflects the edge to the Rangers thus far:
Goals for/against: 16/21
Power play goals for/against: 5/9
Even-strength goals for/against: 10/11
Power play: 5/35 (14.3%)
Penalty killing: 9/42 (21.4%)
Record: one-goal games: 1-0-2
Record, 3+ goal games: 1-2
Both teams get their share of power play chances – they ranked fourth and seventh, respectively, in power play opportunities in the regular season. But in this series, the Rangers have averaged better than one power play chance a game more than the Penguins and have made good on that greater frequency of chances to the tune of almost twice as many power play goals as Pittsburgh. That pretty much describes the difference in scoring between these teams.
Looking at the top scorers for Pittsburgh and their records in the season series:
Evgeni Malkin: 5-2-7, +1
Sidney Crosby: 1-7-8, +4 (seven games)
Marian Hossa: 1-1-2, even (three games, one with Atlanta)
Sergei Gonchar: 2-4-6, +3
Petr Sykora: 1-2-3, -3
Malkin, Crosby, and Gonchar lead the way, as might be expected. But in their numbers is the hint of a certain familiarity on the part of the Rangers with their play. Those numbers – particularly those for Malkin and Crosby, about a point a game -- are not consistent with the numbers they put up against other opponents.
If there is a key to this series for the Penguins on offense, it might be Ryan Malone. This would seem to be, at first blush, a close fought series in the making. Malone has the size, skill, and grit to be a difference maker here. His performance against the Rangers isn’t noteworthy (0-1-1, +1, in seven games), but he was 7-6-13, +6, in his last 17 regular season games and 2-3-5, +3, in the four-game sweep of the Senators in round one.
If you subscribe to this being a tightly-contested series with a lot of one-goal games (I do), then Marc-Andre Fleury will be a key element to the Penguins’ success. He was 2-1-2, 2.19, .929 in five games against the Rangers this year. And, he had that stonewall effort against the Senators in round one. You’d have to think he’s ready to take the next step.
As for the Rangers, their top scorers fared as follows against the Pens:
Jaromir Jagr: 2-5-7, +1
Scott Gomez: 3-4-7, -2
Chris Drury: 2-4-6, -1
Brendan Shanahan: 0-2-2, -1 (seven games)
Martin Straka: 2-2-4, -1 (five games)
Sean Avery could be a key in this series for the Rangers. He played in only five games of the season series with the Penguins (3-2-5, +3), but the Rangers were 4-1-0 in those games in which Avery played. And, if he could get under Martin Brodeur’s skin (as he seemed to do in the opening round), he sure as the dickens has the ability to make Fleury’s life miserable.
In goal, Henrik Lundqvist is a Vezina Trophy finalist – again, for the third consecutive year. This guy can and should be mentioned in the same breath as Brodeur and Luongo when consideration is being given to the best goalies in the NHL. Against Pittsburgh this year, he earned the decision in all eight games, going 5-3-0, 1.87, .916. He shaved about three-quarters of a goal a game off his GAA against the Penguins from last year.
Why Pittsburgh will win…
It was hard to envision a team that could play with more confidence than that which the Penguins displayed in round one. It wasn’t cockiness, but the air of “we’re good, we know it, and we have a job to do.” The biggest question mark – Fleury – was more than up to the task of shutting down what was still, at least on paper, a potent Ottawa offense. The club has just about everyone they’d need to have healthy and ready. This is also a team that can play with an edge – in addition to their top-end skill – with players like Gary Roberts, Jarkko Ruutu, and Malone.
Why the Rangers will win…
No fear. It’s not like the Penguins’ ability to score, score quickly, and score often is going to be a secret to the Rangers. They’ve handled that aspect of the Penguin’s effectively this year. And, unlike the bloated carcasses that were the Ranger teams earlier in the decade, this one is a hard-nosed bunch that can actually play defense. Plus, having the imperturbable Lundqvist backstopping the enterprise doesn’t hurt. The Rangers were – and are – the team in this tournament set up to derail the Penguins.
In the end…
While Pittsburgh is the better team, on talent, it also has more of the “moving parts” that can go wrong in a series like this. The Rangers won’t score much, but they won’t need to, either. Pittsburgh might get a four or five goal explosion in this series, but not enough of them to win in the end.
Rangers in six.
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