Your First Round Prognostos...Devils vs. Rangers

And the last of the “other” Eastern series …

New Jersey Devils (4) vs. New York Rangers (5)

Season series:

Oct. 25: at Rangers 2, Devils 0
Nov. 3: at Rangers 2, Devils 1 (SO)
Nov. 14: Rangers 4 at Devils 2
Dec. 9: at Rangers 1, Devils 0 (OT)
Feb. 1: Rangers 3 at Devils 1
Mar. 19: Rangers 2 at Devils 1 (SO)
Mar. 27: at Rangers 3, Devils 2
Apr. 6: at Devils 3, Rangers 2 (SO)

If one watched the Devils this year, one might get the impression of a tired, boring team running on fumes. The thing is, they won 46 games. However, only one of those wins came against the Rangers. If you look at this series, you’d have to like the Devils’ chances to go to the Stanley Cup finals…if they win this series. They are 1-4-3 against the Rangers, 38-22-4 against the rest of the East.

But there is that pesky record against the Rangers. The Rangers do not play the Devils’ style, but they do match them for results on the defensive side of the ledger. The Rangers and Devils ranked 4^th and 5^th, respectively, in goals allowed per game this year. Neither club will make anyone forget the 1985 Edmonton Oilers, but the Rangers overcame an absolutely abysmal start, offensively (26 goals scored in their first 15 games – and that includes scoring five on opening night – and shutout three times in their first eight games of the season), to climb – if that is the right word – to 25^th in per-game scoring. That would be two spots above New Jersey. We think it safe to say that the opinions of the families of the players – and Larry Brooks – notwithstanding, this will be looked upon as the most boring series of the opening round.

The Rangers dominated the numbers, as their record would suggest:

Goals for/against: 17/9 (that’s right…nine goals in eight games)
Power play goals for/against: 6/1
Even-strength goals for/against: 11/8
Power play: 6/30 (20.0%)
Penalty killing: 26/27 (96.3%)
Record, one-goal games: 4-0-1
Record, 3+ goal games: none

Looking at the Rangers top scorers, and their success against the Devils:

Jaromir Jagr: 2-1-3, even
Scott Gomez: 1-6-7, even
Chris Drury: 4-4-8, +5
Brendan Shanahan: 2-2-4, +1
Martin Straka: 0-1-1, -1 (five games)

But if there is a “secret weapon” for the Rangers, it’s Nigel Dawes. He has four of his 14 goals on the season against the Devils in seven games. And he’s been quite the sharpshooter…those four goals came on a total of 12 shots (33.3%).

In goal, Henrik Lundqvist has certainly risen to the occasion against his Devil counterpart, Martin Brodeur. He has all eight decisions (7-0-1) with a 1.09 GAA and .956 save percentage to go along with it. He doesn’t have better numbers against any other team he’s played at least two games against this year.

On the other side, the Devils are an offense-starved club, which makes the job of Brodeur that much more difficult. As for the Devils’ leading scorers this year, their record against the Rangers is, as one would expect of a team that scored nine goals in eight games, rather grim:

Zach Parise: 2-1-3, -1
Patrik Elias: 1-0-1, even
Brian Gionta: 0-1-1, -1
John Madden: 1-0-1, -2
Jamie Langenbrunner: 2-1-3, even
Dainius Zubrus: 1-2-3, -1

That’s seven of the nine goals…so forget the idea of a secret weapon based on this. As we noted, it makes Brodeur’s job that much harder. You look at a guy who has a 1.96 GAA and .922 save percentage in eight games, and you’d scratch your head as to why he has one win, and that one coming in a shootout. Well, when your teammates get you barely a goal a game, there is no need for any further head-scratching.

Why New York will win…

They have the utmost confidence that they can beat the Devils. They beat them in Manhattan, they beat them in Newark. They beat them in regulation, they beat them in overtime. They beat them here, and there, and everywhere. And it’s not like Jersey is doing it on the offensive end against anyone else. In their last ten games they were 4-5-1 (3-4-0 to teams not named, “Rangers”). They scored a total of 15 goals in their last ten games and were held to two or fewer nine times.

Why New Jersey will win…

Martin Brodeur…

Rangers in five.