There is Only One "52"

Mike Green was the not the first defenseman taken in the 2004 entry draft.  He was not even the first defenseman taken in that draft by the Washington Capitals.  Green, who was the third-ranked North American defenseman in the NHL Central Scouting rankings, was the 29^th overall pick and eighth defenseman taken in that draft, two spots behind  Jeff Schultz, taken by the Caps at 27^th overall.

Eleven years later, Green is arguably the best defenseman of his 2004 class.  He is at or near the top in most statistical categories:

• Games played: 575 (3^rd)
• Goals: 113 (1^st)
• Goals-per-game: 0.20 (1^st)
• Assists: 247 (2^nd)
• Points: 360 (2^nd)
• Points-per-game: 0.63 (1^st)
• Plus-minus: plus-58 (1^st)

Only once in ten seasons has his Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 been under 50 percent (49.4 in 2011-2012), and he has a cumulative 54.0 percent over that period; only once in ten seasons has his Corsi-for/relative been less that plus-1.1 (minus-1.2 in 2012-2013; numbers from war-on-ice.com).  Twice finishing second in Norris Trophy voting as top defenseman, twice a first team NHL all-star, Green is the most accomplished defenseman of his class.

Now, with ten years of NHL experience with the Capitals, Green appears destined to don another sweater for the next phase of his career.  As an unrestricted free agent, the arithmetic is unsympathetic to a renewal of the relationship between Green and Washington.  More than most that have come and gone in the history of the franchise, Green will leave memories.  There is the “Game Over Green” persona, the player who recorded 22 regular season and playoff game-winning goals, nine of them in overtime.  There is the player who over the last eight seasons has more seasons with ten or more goals (five) than any full-time defenseman except  Shea Weber (six).  There is the defenseman who has the only season with 30 or more goals scored since 1992-1993, the 2008-2009 season in which he set a record for consecutive games with a goal scored by a defenseman (eight).

But Green has been more than his statistics in Washington.  He has been one of the most memorable players in the club’s history…

He was one of those fresh-faced teenagers full of promise on draft day 2004...

...then went on to become a Calder Cup champion with the Hershey Bears in 2006...

...but he helped get there by imprinting a unique style in his pre-game warm-up routine...

His climb up the development ladder was sure and steady...

...eventually becoming one of the premier offensive defensemen in the league and an all star...

Although he would twice be a finalist for the Norris Trophy as the league's top defenseman, he had his detractors who belittled his defense.  But Green kept plugging along...

...and it did not keep him from being a record-setter...

Injuries had begun to take their toll on Green's game...

...but in working through them, he also grew into a better two-way defenseman, although not without their slips along the way...

And, it did not keep him from being a sportsman whose gentlemanly play deserved notice...

As much as his presence on the ice, Green was a presence off it as well, a player of style...

...as sharp off the ice as on it...

Mike Green came to the Caps as an unknown, became one of the "Young Guns," and grew into one of the best defensemen in the history of a franchise in which such a thing is no small honor.  It appears, sadly, that his stay with the Capitals is at an end.  It will be a decade not soon forgotten.  And no matter where his travels take him, Mike Green -- the only player to wear number "52" in team history -- will occupy a special place in the memory of Caps fans...

The Peerless Prognosticator Brings You the Most Mocktentatious of 2015 Mock Drafts

It is the last week of June, not quite Shark Week as weeks go, but to NHL fans it is "Hope Week.”  Fans of all 30 teams will be waiting fervently, hoping that when their team is called to the podium, the powers that be will announce a name that will change the fortunes of their club for the better.  Part of this week’s traditions is the publishing of mock drafts.  Far be it from the cousins or I to trivialize traditions, so we will present with all due modesty our own prognostications for the first round of the NHL entry draft in Sunrise, Florida, this Friday evening.  So cut yourself a slice of mock apple pie, and pour yourself an alcohol-free beer, and take a look at what the cousins and I came up with.

1.  Edmonton Oilers: Connor McDavid, Center, Erie Otters (OHL)

Last three first draft picks:

• 2014: Leon Draisaitl, C (3^rd overall)
• 2013: Darnell Nurse, D (7^th overall)
• 2012: Nail Yakupov, RW (1^st overall)

Since 2007, the Oilers have had seven top-ten draft picks, four in the top-five, and three top overall picks.  Since 2007-2008, Edmonton has not finished a season with more than 41 wins, have not finished better than third in their division, and have not made the playoffs so much as once.  You would think they cannot screw this up, picking the most highly thought of amateur since Sidney Crosby, but in the back of your mind you might be thinking that somehow they will.

2.  Buffalo Sabres: Jack Eichel, Center, Boston University (NCAA)

Last three first draft picks:

• 2014: Sam Reinhart, C (2^nd overall)
• 2013: Rasmus Ristolainen, D (8^th overall)
• 2012: Mikhail Grigorenko, C (12^th overall)

In each of the last five drafts the Sabres picked from a successively higher position in the first round.  For the second straight year they get to pick second overall.  In two of the last three drafts they went for centers with their first pick, but this time they get to take a center who would be the unquestioned top pick but for the fact that this is the Connor McDavid draft.

3.  Arizona Coyotes: Dylan Strome, Center, Erie Otters (OHL)

Last three first draft picks:

• 2014: Brendan Perlini, LW (12^th overall)
• 2013: Max Domi, C (12^th overall)
• 2012: Henrik Samuelsson, C (27^th overall)

The draft will be something of a sanctuary for Coyote fans that once more have to endure the machinations of arena politics.  This will be the Coyotes’ first top-five pick since they took Kyle Turris with the third overall pick in 2007.  After taking defensemen in the first round in three straight years ending in 2011, they have gone for forwards in each of the last three years.  They could go for defenseman Noah Hanafin here, but they won’t.

4.  Toronto Maple Leafs: Noah Hanafin, Defense, Boston College (NCAA)

Last three first draft picks:

• 2014: William Nylander, C (8^th overall)
• 2013: Frederik Gauthier, C (21^st overall)
• 2012: Morgan Rielly, D (5^th overall)

After taking centers in each of the last two drafts with the first pick available to them, the Maple Leafs look for blue line help.  The odd thing here is that Toronto has never spent a first-round pick on an NCAA player.  Hanafin just completed his freshman season with Boston College.

5.  Carolina Hurricanes: Mitch Marner, Center. London Knights (OHL)

Last three first draft picks:

• 2014: Haydn Fleury, D (7^th overall)
• 2013: Elias Lindholm, C (5^th overall)
• 2012: Phil DiGiuseppe, F (38^th overall)

A few years back, Carolina did pretty well at the top of the draft.  Jeff Skinner and Justin Faulk in 2010, Victor Rask in 2011, Elias Lindholm in 2013.  More to the point, they have done somewhat better drafting forwards than defensemen, Faulk notwithstanding.  They will get a chance to add to that success here.

6.  New Jersey Devils: Ivan Provorov, Defense, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)

Last three first draft picks:

• 2014: John Quenneville, C (30^th overall)
• 2013: Steven Santini, D (42^nd)
• 2012: Stefan Matteau, LW 29^th overall)

7.  Philadelphia Flyers: Lawson Crouse, Left Wing, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL)

Last three first draft picks:

• 2014: Travis Sanheim, D (17^th overall)
• 2013: Samuel Morin, D (11^th overall)
• 2012: Scott Laughlin, LW (20^th overall)

8.  Columbus Blue Jackets: Mikko Rantanen, RW (TPS/SM Liga)

Last three first draft picks:

• 2014: Sonny Milano, LW (16^th overall)
• 2013: Alexander Wennberg, C (14^th overall)
• 2012: Ryan Murray, D (2^nd overall)

9.  San Jose Sharks: Pavel Zacha, Center, Sarnia Sting (OHL)

Last three first draft picks:

• 2014: Nikolay Goldobin, RW (27^th overall)
• 2013: Mirco Mueller, D (18^th overall)
• 2012: Tomas Hertl, LW (17^th overall)

10.  Colorado Avalanche: Zach Werenski, Defense, University of Michigan (NCAA)

Last three first draft picks:

• 2014: Conner Bleackeley, C (23^rd overall)
• 2013: Nathan MacKinnon, C (1^st overall)
• 2012: Mitchell Heard, C (41^st overall)

11.  Florida Panthers: Matthew Barzal, Center, Seattle Thunderbirds, WHL)

Last three first picks:

• 2014: Aaron Ekblad, D (1^st overall)
• 2013: Aleksander Barkov, C (2^nd overall)
• 2012: Michael Matheson, D (23^rd overall)

12.  Dallas Stars: Kyle Conor, Left Wing/Center (USHL)

Last three first picks:

• 2014: Julius Honka, D (14^th overall)
• 2013: Valeri Nichuskhin, RW (10^th overall)
• 2012: Radek Faksam, C (13^th overall)

13.  Los Angeles Kings: Timo Meier, Right Wing, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)

Last three first picks:

• 2014: Adrian Kempe, LW (29^th overall)
• 2013: Valentin Zykov, RW (37^th overall)
• 2012: Tanner Pearson, LW (30^th overall)

14.  Boston Bruins: Travis Konecny, Right Wing, Ottawa 67's (OHL))

Last three first picks:

• 2014: David Pastrnak, LW (25^th overall)
• 2013: Linus Arnesson, D (60^th overall)
• 2012: Malcolm Subban, G (24^th overall)

15.  Calgary Flames: Ilya Samsonov, Goaltender, Magnitogorsk (MHL)

Last three first picks:

• 2014: Sam Bennett, C (4^th overall)
• 2013: Sean Monahan, C (6^th overall)
• 2012: Mark Jankowski, C (21st overall)

16.  Edmonton Oilers (from Pittsburgh): Jakub Zboril, Defense, Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL)

Last three first picks:

• 2014: Leon Draisaitl, C (3^rd overall)
• 2013: Darnell Nurse, D (7^th overall)
• 2012: Nail Yakupov, RW (1^st overall)

17.  Winnipeg Jets: Nick Merkley, Center/Right Wing, Kelowna Rockets (WHL)

Last three first picks:

• 2014: Nikolaj Ehlers, LW (9^th overall)
• 2013: Josh Morrissey, D (13^th overall)
• 2012: Jacob Trouba, D (9^th overall)

18.  Ottawa Senators: Thomas Chabot, Defense, Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL)

Last three first picks:

• 2014: Andreas Englund, D (40^th overall)
• 2013: Curtis Lazar, C (17^th overall)
• 2012: Cody Ceci, D (15^th overall)

19.  Detroit Red Wings: Evgeni Svechnikov, Center, Cape Breton (QMJHL)

Last three first picks:

• 2014: Dylan Larkin, C (15^th overall)
• 2013: Anthony Mantha, RW (20^th overall)
• 2012: Martin Frk, RW (49^th overall)

20.  Minnesota Wild: Jacob Larsson, Defense, Frolunda (Swe-J20)

Last three first picks:

• 2014: Alex Tuch, RW (18^th overall)
• 2013: Gustav Olofsson, D (46^th overall)
• 2012: Matthew Dumba, D (7^th overall)

21. Buffalo Sabres (from New York Islanders): Paul Bittner, Left Wing, Portland Winterhawks (WHL)

Last three first picks:

• 2014: Sam Reinhart, C (2^nd overall)
• 2013: Rasmus Ristolainen, D (8^th overall)
• 2012: Mikhail Grigorenko, C (12^th overall)

22.  Washington Capitals: Joel Eriksson Ek, Center, Farjestad (SWE-SHL)

Last three first picks:

• 2014: Jakub Vrana, LW (13^th overall)
• 2013: Andre Burakovsky, LW (23^rd overall)
• 2012: Filip Forsberg, C (11^th overall)

Starting in 2006, when the Capitals selected Nicklas Backstrom fourth overall, Washington drafted players on Swedish teams with their first pick in the first round six times in eight drafts (for the record: Backstrom, Anton Gustafsson, Marcus Johansson, Filip Forsberg, Andre Burakovsky, and Jakub Vrana).  All of them are forwards.  Only twice in the last 12 drafts have the Caps selected a defenseman with the first pick available to them: Karl Alzner in 2007 and Sasha Pokulok in 2005.  Picking a forward from Sweden would hardly be an outside-the-box pick here.

23.  Vancouver Canucks: Jeremy Roy, Defense, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL)

Last three first picks:

• 2014: Jake Virtanen, RW (6^th overall)
• 2013: Bo Horvat, C (9^th overall)
• 2012: Brendan Gaunce, C (26^th overall)

24.  Toronto Maple Leafs (from Nashville): Colin White, Center (USHL)

Last three first picks:

• 2014: William Nylander, C (8^th overall)
• 2013: Frederik Gauthier, C (21^st overall)
• 2012: Morgan Rielly, D (5^th overall)

25.  Winnipeg Jets (from Buffalo from St. Louis): Denis Guryanov, Right Wing, Togliatti (MHL)

• 2014: Nikolaj Ehlers, LW (9^th overall)
• 2013: Josh Morrissey, D (13^th overall)
• 2012: Jacob Trouba, D (9^th overall)

26.  Montreal Canadiens: Oliver Kylington, Defense, Farjestad (SHL)

Last three first picks:

• 2014: Nikita Scherbak, RW (26^th overall)
• 2013: Michael McCarron, RW (25^th overall)
• 2012: Alex Galchenyuk, C (3^rd overall)

27.  Anaheim Ducks: Jeremy Bracco, Right Wing (USHL)

Last three first picks:

• 2014: Nick Ritchie, LW (10^th overall)
• 2013: Shea Theodore, D (26^th overall)
• 2012: Hampus Lindholm, D (6^th overall)

28.  Tampa Bay Lightning (from New York Rangers): Brandon Carlo, Defense, Tri-City Americans (WHL)

Last three first picks:

• 2014: Anthony DeAngelo, D (19^th overall)
• 2013: Jonathan Drouin, LW (3^rd overall)
• 2012: Slater Koekkoek, D (10^th overall)

29.   Philadelphia Flyers (from Tampa Bay): Gabriel Carlsson, Defense, Linkoping (SWE-J20)

Last three first picks:

• 2014: Travis Sanheim, D (17^th overall)
• 2013: Samuel Morin, D (11^th overall)
• 2012: Scott Laughlin, LW (20^th overall)

30.  Arizona Coyotes (from Chicago): Noah Juulsen, Defense, Everett Silvertips (WHL)

Last three first picks:

• 2014: Brendan Perlini, LW (12^th overall)
• 2013: Max Domi, C (12^th overall)
• 2012: Henrik Samuelsson, C (27^th overall)

And there you have it.  Thirty young men whose dreams will come true this weekend.  Thirty general managers having put their futures in the hands of 18-year olds.  Think of it as teenagers’ revenge.

As always, do not use these picks for cash wagering, only for lining the birdcage.