The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals bring their three-game winning
streak to the Verizon Center ice on Tuesday
night when they host the Carolina Hurricanes, who will be
bringing a three-game winning streak of their own to the contest. The Caps will be taking the ice with an
nine-game winning streak on home ice, a streak that has seen them outscore
opponents by a staggering 45-12 margin and in which the Caps have recorded five
or more goals in each of their last eight home wins.
On the other hand, the recent Hurricane winning streak masks
an inconvenient truth. They have been
poor on the road. They have yet to win
consecutive road games this season (although that is what they will be trying
to do against the Caps), and they are a dismal 4-11-2 in their last 17 road
contests dating back to November 24th.
Their 20 standings points off a 7-14-6 road record is the second lowest
in the Eastern Conference (the New York Islanders have 16 points with a 6-10-4
record, holding seven road games in hand on Carolina).
Jordan Staal has struggled on the road this season,
especially over the last two months. He
got off on the right foot, recording goal sin three of his first six road games
and four in his first nine contests, but he has had just one goal in his last
12 games away from Raleigh. That one
came against the Caps, Carolina’s only goal in a 6-1 loss to Washington at
Verizon Center on January 23rd.
He does show evidence of being on a more productive run of late, going
1-3-4, plus-4 (two assists in a 5-4 road win in Brookly over the Islanders last
Saturday) in four games since the Hurricanes dropped that decision in
Washington. Staal is 10-7-17, minus-2,
in 40 career games against the Caps.
Viktor Stalberg has one of the strangest facts attached to
his resume this season. Of 156 forwards
to have played in at least 25 road games this season, Stalberg is the only one
not to have recorded an assist on the road this season. He is 5-0-5 in 26 road games so far. And as far as his goal scoring is concerned,
that seems to have dried up on the road, too.
Stalberg brings a 12-game streak on the road without a goal. In 13 career games against the Caps, he is
2-1-3, plus-3.
It seems like yesterday that Cam Ward was skating around the
ice, one of the least likely Conn Smythe Trophy winners in NHL history, leading
the Hurricanes to a Stanley Cup in 2006 as a rookie having played just 28
regular season games. Today, only 12 of
84 goalies to dress for an NHL game this season are older than Ward, who will
turn 33 at the end of the month (he is a February 29th baby). He has never duplicated that early career
success and has never really been a member of the elite niche of goaltender in
the NHL, but he is the all-time franchise leader in games played by a Carolina
Hurricane/Hartford Whaler goalie (608), the leader in wins (290), losses (224;
298 if you include overtime/shootout losses), .
shutouts (25), and total minutes (34,952). He, like many of his teammates, has struggled
on the road this season, going 6-11-5, 2.86, .895. It has been more of a struggle lately, Ward
going 2-5-0, 3.74, .866 in his last seven road appearances.
1. Carolina is a team
that does not rank highly in the edgier parts of the game – 28th in
credited hits (922), 26th in blocked shots (683), 30th in
penalty minutes (6:08 per game), 30th in minor penalties (132), 30th
in fighting majors (5).
2. It does not happen
often in the NHK, so the .250 winning percentage when trailing after two
periods might not sound impressive.
However, it ranks tied for fifth-best in the league (by way of
comparison, the Caps’ winning percentage is .200).
3. No team has more
losses when out-shooting the opposition than Carolina (17, tied with Boston).
4. Only Colorado has
allowed more goals at 5-on-5 this season (117) than Carolina (111, tied with
Winnipeg).
5. What Carolina does
do well is compile good possession numbers.
The Hurricanes rank fourth in the league in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (51.76
percent), but those numbers are good only to a point. Adjusted for score, zone, and venue, Carolina
ranks 12th (50.84 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey).
1. Only Max
Pacioretty has scored more goals on home ice this season (17) than Alex
Ovechkin (16). No player has more power
play goals on home ice than Ovechkin (7), who is tied with three other players
(Patrik Laine, Patric Hornqvist, and Brayden Schenn).
2. The Caps lead the
league in wins when leading after two periods (27, five more than San Jose). No
team has taken a lead into the third period more often than the Caps (29
games).
3. Washington has the
second-fewest number of losses in regulation when trailing after two
periods. Those eight losses represent
the lion’s share of the 11 losses in regulation they suffered to date.
4. Since January 1st,
the Caps have more goals scored than any team in the league, and it’s not
close. The Caps have 78 goals in 18
games (4.33 per game), while Minnesota has 58 goals in 15 games (3.87 per
game).
5. Odd thing about
that record since January 1st.
The Caps rank 25th in shot attempt percentage overall (47.94
percent) but seventh in shot attempt percentage when the game is tied (52.21
percent; numbers from NHL.com).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Carolina: Justin Faulk
Justin Faulk is in only his sixth NHL season, but he is
already third on the all-time franchise list for points by a defenseman (179),
trailing only Dave Babych, who recorded 240 points with the Hartford Whalers,
and Glen Wesley, with 227 points. He was
named to the All-Star game roster for the fourth time this season. Unfortunately, he also happens to rank dead
last in the NHL in plus-minus in road games among defensemen this season (minus-21). No defenseman has spent more time in minus
territory on the road this season, Faulk tied with Nikita Zaitsev in games
finishing with a minus (16). Only four
times in 24 road games this season did he finish as a plus player and never
better than plus-1. Faulk is 3-6-9,
minus-1, in 23 career games against the Capitals.
Washington: Brooks Orpik
Plus-minus is that forlorn statistic that has fallen out of
favor, but sometimes it matters. For
instance, if you are not a big offensive contributor on defense, every goal
scored against you at even strength is likely to be a blemish on that
plus-minus record. And so it is with
Brooks Orpik, but lo and behold, Orpik has been a minus player once in his last
28 games (minus-1 in a 3-0 loss to Ottawa on January 24th). He is a plus-22 over those 28 games. No defenseman in the league has a better
plus-minus over that span (teammate Dmitry Orlov is plus-19). Not bad for a defenseman who ranks just 113th
of 146 defenseman in average ice time over that span (minimum: 20 games played)
and who has only six points (all assists).
He has been the epitome of the “stay-at-home” defenseman, the stable
partner who lets his running mate jump into the play without undue worry that
he won’t be backstopped. In 43 career games
against Carolina, Orpik is 1-10-11, plus-7.
In the end…
Carolina is a poor road club, and they have had little
practice in playing on the road recently, playing only six road games so far
this calendar year with a record of 2-4-0.
You would have to think they are a team ripe for the taking, especially
since one of those road games was a 6-1 loss to the Caps on January 23rd. But in the first three games of the season series
to date, the Caps have just a 2-1-0 record against the ‘Canes, one of the wins
coming in the trick shot competition.
Washington holds just a 10-9 edge in goals scored, and they have allowed
a power play goal to Carolina in each of the three games played. Nothing comes easy. But then again, you have a juggernaut on home
ice facing a team that is a quite different team on the road than it is at
home, and not in a good way.
Capitals 5 – Hurricanes 2
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