The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
And here we are, finishing as we started. After 198 days since the Washington Capitals defeated the New York Rangers to kick off the 2021-2022 regular season, 5-1, we watch the same two teams ending it facing one another once more. Their places in the postseason already secured, there is the matter of seeding. And in this respect, even this season-ending regular season game could be a beginning. Pending results of the Capitals/Islanders contest on Thursday night and this season ending game, Game 82 of the regular season could be what amounts to “Game 0” of the first round of the playoffs in which these same two teams would face each other.
The Rangers that the Caps are facing in Game 82 is not the team they faced in October. At the beginning of the season, the Rangers, to the extent they were thought of as a playoff contender, seemed to have a ceiling of “wild card” among prognosticators.
The Rangers started the season tougher, with the additions of Ryan Reaves, Patrik Nemeth, and Barclay Goodrow. All were in the Opening Night lineup for the Rangers, none made much of an impact (no points, four shots on goal, but they did combine for nine hits). Fast forward to now. Of 22 players to dress for at least 20 games, Goodrow, Nemeth, and Reaves rank ninth, tenth, and 21st, respectively in ice time per game. They have combined for 20 goals and 53 points. These are not awful results for bottom-six forwards with a limited role to play, and one could argue Goodrow has outperformed expectations (he is 13-20-33, plus-12, in 78 games). But have they made the Rangers better by freeing up room for more skilled players? To say that the answer is unsettled might be overstating their impact.
Goodrow and Reaves are at opposite ends of the contribution scale here. Goodrow has posted career bests this season in goals (13), assists (20), and points (33), the first time in his career he has posted double digits in goals, reached the 20 assist mark, and topped 30 points. His 67 penalty minutes is modest compared to his career high, 97 in 70 games split between San Jose and Tampa Bay in 2019-2020. The reduction in penalty minutes has not come at the expense of expressing a physical edge within the rules, his 129 credited hits being the second-highest total of his career to date (he had 162 in 70 games in 2019-2020).
As one might expect, his secondary scoring is enough of a supplement to the offense to matter. In the 12 games in which he has goals, New York is 10-2-0. In the 27 games in which he has points, they are 20-4-3. There does seem to be threshold of physicality attached to his game. In ten games in which Goodrow was credited with four or more hits, the Rangers are just 5-5-0. But three hits seems to be the sweet spot. New York is 6-0-1 when he recorded that total. Goodrow is 1-2-3, minus-2, in ten career games against Washington.
The acquisition of Ryan Reaves, in retrospect, seems to have been poorly thought out, then the damage compounded. He was acquired via trade with Vegas in July 2021 for a third-round draft pick in the 2022 Entry Draft. That looks like an overpayment for a player who had 49 goals in 686 career games before arriving in New York. He also had 937 penalty minutes and a reputation as one of the most fearsome fighters in the league. He also had 75 major penalties in those 686 games, two more than Washington’s Tom Wilson over the same span (Wilson compiled his 73 minors over that period in 569 games). And Wilson appears to be the reason Reaves was obtained. In fact, that acquisition, at least from this seat, looks like a response to a pair of games last season.
The Rangers thought enough of having Reaves to keep the peace (or enhance the chaos) that they signed him to a one-year/$1.75 million contract extension shortly after his acquisition. A hefty price tag for a 35-year old forward whose skill set is rather limited, especially when compared to a cohort of forwards 32-38 years of age with cap hits from $1.5 to $2.0 million. The Rangers have been successful when he posted points, but he has only ten games with points in 68 games played (the Rangers are 7-3-0 in those games). He has been reasonably disciplined this season with only three majors on his record, but in the 17 games in which he recorded penalties overall, New York is just 9-6-2. And Ranger fans might not want to see him much on the ice. In 18 games in which he skated at least 12 minutes, New York is 8-10-0. Reaves is 1-2-3, minus-3, in 19 career games against the Caps.
On a team with its share o=of recognizable names, that of Braden Schneider might get lost in the noise. He is one of five rookie skaters to play for the Rangers this season and leads that cohort in games played. In 42 games, the rookie defenseman is 2-7-9, plus-3, in 15 minutes and change in ice time per game. He ranks fifth overall with nine points among the 11 defensemen to dress for the Rangers this season, fifth in points per game (0.21), and sixth in plus-minus rating (plus-3).
It should be of little surprise that Schneider is contributing at age 20 at a difficult position for a Stanley Cup contender. He was the fourth defenseman taken in the 2020 Entry Draft and in one of only four defensemen from that draft to date to appear in an NHL game. After he was drafted he spent a final full year with the Brandon Wheat Kings in the Western Hockey League, posting five goals and 27 points in 22 games before heading to the Hartford Wolf Pack in the AHL for a cup of coffee at the end of the season. He played in 24 games with the Wolf Pack this season, going 0-9-9, plus-6, before graduating to the Rangers. It would not be unusual for a young defenseman to have a poor relationship of ice time to team success, and such is the case for Schneider. New York is 9-8-0 in the 17 games in which he skated 15:14 or more, 19-5-1 in the 25 games in which he skated less. He went without a point and had an even rating in his only appearance against Washington to date.
2. The Rangers rank second in the league in scoring defense on home ice, allowing 2.28 goals per game (Carolina: 2.10).
3. New York is tied with three other teams for fewest first period goals allowed on home ice (25). Only Vancouver has allowed fewer third period goals on home ice (25) than the Rangers (27).
4. The Rangers have allowed one goal in overtime on home ice this season. Only Edmonton and Florida allowed fewer (none).
5. Only Colorado has more wins when scoring first on home ice (26) than New York (19).
1. This will be the sixth time in Caps history that they faced the Rangers in the season finale. Their record overall in the first five games is 4-1-0; they are 2-0-0 in New York.
2. This will be the 236th meeting between the teams, the second-most games the Caps have played against any opponent (they played 240 games against Pittsburgh). The Caps hold a 113-96-8 (18 ties) edge in the series, 51-4-4 (nine ties) in Manhattan.
3. In 118 games at Madison Square Garden, the Caps have taken 30.6 shots per game and allowed 30.6 shots per game.
4. Washington has six overtime goals scored in New York in the all-time series. They have more on the road only against Montreal and the New York Islanders (seven apiece).
5. The Caps are 19-19-4 in one-goal decisions all-time against the Rangers at Madison Square Garden.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Rangers: Chris Kreider
It was fitting that the first goal for the Rangers this season would be scored by Chris Kreider on a power play in their 5-1 loss to the Capitals on Opening Night. Kreider has gone on to post his first 50-goal season (52 going into Game 82), 26 of them on power plays to lead the league in that category. Until this season, Kreider was a reliable contributor, posting six 20-plus goal seasons of the seven seasons preceding this one, but never as many as 30 goals (he had 28 in 2016-2017 and 2018-2019). The goals came when he was more assertive shooting the puck, his 255 shots on goal in 80 games far eclipse the 201 shots in 79 games in 2018-2019 that was his previous high in that category, and more efficient in doing so, his 20.4 shooting percentage being the first time he topped 20 percent and ranking fifth in the league among 351 skaters with at least 100 shots on goal.
Krieder’s goals have not been cosmetic additions to pump up Ranger scoring, either. He is tied for the league lead in game-winning goals (11) with Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl, and it is also an outlier total, more than twice as many game-winners as he posted in his next highest season (five in 2014-2015 and again in 2010-2020). Kreider has goals in 42 of the 80 games in which he has played, the Rangers going 30-9-3 in those games (they are 21-14-3 in games in which he did not score a goal). He has nine multi-goal games this season, as many as his previous three seasons combined. Unsurprisingly for a prolific goal scorer on a top-ranked team, Kreider’s contributions this season on offense have been one of the key ingredients to the Rangers’ success. He is 9-6-15, even, in 34 career games against the Capitals.
Washington: Marcus Johansson
If the Capitals are going to go far in the playoffs, they are
going to need contributions in layers.
There will be the skill players like Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, John
Carlson, and Anthony Mantha. There will be gritty
players like Tom Wilson, T.J. Oshie, Conor Sheary, Garnet Hathaway, and Nic
Dowd. And then there are the “200-foot
players.” Who have to contribute offensively while being responsible and
defensively honest in all three zones.
Marcus Johansson might be the epitome of that player for the Caps as
they prepare for the postseason. Head
coach Peter Laviolette identified him precisely as such when the Caps traded a
fourth-round draft pick in 2022, a sixth-round draft pick in 2023, and Daniel
Sprong to Seattle to obtain him at the trading deadline.
Johansson’s contributions on offense have been modest since his arrival (3-3-6, minus-4, in 16 games). He has also been on ice for 12 even strength goals against with a minus-2 goal differential at evens, which is probably not what the team was looking for when he came on board. However, his production has picked up with time. He went without a point in his first six games in his return to Washington; he was on ice for five goals against at even strength in those six games and had a minu-s3 goal differential. Since then, he is 3-3-6, even, in ten games, has been on ice for seven goals against at evens, and has a plus-1 goal differential. One hopes that this is indicative of an adjustment curve as he becomes familiar with the schemes and strategies the Caps employ across all three zones. But it is his continued improvement in these areas that will be a key ingredient to the team’s success in the postseason. Johansson is 8-12-20, minus-8, in 33 career games against the Rangers.
In the end…
If this is, in fact, “Game 0” of an opening round series to come against the Rangers, this game will be an opportunity to lock in their focus on their systems and to make a statement that their road record – best in the league in wins (25, tied with four other teams), points (56), and points percentage (.718) – is no fluke. It could also be an opportunity to plant seeds of doubt about Igor Shesterkin in goal who, despite his phenomenal numbers this season, has only one game of postseason experience (a 4-1 loss to Carolina in a series-clinching Game 3 in the 2020 qualifying round). It will not be a meaningless game.
Capitals 3 – Rangers 1
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