A TWO-point night: Caps 5 - Islanders 3

Last night, the Caps surged…well, surged isn’t quite the word. Let’s say that they crawled over the 100-point threshold for the season in defeating the New York Islanders, 5-3.

It was a game we might call an “ISO” game. No, not some personals “in search of” kind of thing, more of an “in spite of” sort of effort…

In spite of looking for all the world for the first 40 minutes as if he had downed a bottle of NyQuil before the game, Mike Green ended the night with a very splashy score sheet – two goals, an assist, two hits, four blocked shots, a franchise record for power play goals (season) after netting his 17th and 18th, and becoming only the eighth defenseman in NHL history to register 30 goals for a season.

In spite of never having engaged in an NHL fight, and having only two on his resume – one in the WHL and one in the AHL – Jeff Schultz dropped the mitts with Tim Jackman. We have to give it to Schultz, he didn’t tangle with a lightweight. That was Jackman’s 19th fight of the NHL season and 33rd of his NHL career. It would be nice to say Schultz won, or even held Jackman to a draw. He didn’t. But the kid gets marks for competing out there last night. It was something that seemed curiously lacking in his game the last month.

In spite of being the guy with the reputation for wadding up like a cheap suit when he gets hit, there was Tomas Fleischmann standing in front tangled with Brendan Witt when Mike Green floated the puck in for the game winner.

In spite of being only 5-6-1 this season when recording at least 40 shots on goal, the Caps managed to get the win in this one after getting 43 shots on goal.

In spite of looking like they were spraying shots like an actor doing a spit take all evening, the Caps were credited with only 19 missed shots. It seemed like 39.

Some other stuff…

The Caps had only two shots on goal on the power play…they scored on both of them (Mike Green getting both shots and both goals).

The centers schooled the Islanders in the circle. Nicklas Backstrom (16-for-24), Sergei Fedorov (11-for-18), Keith Aucoin (7-for-9), and David Steckel (5-for-6) were a combined 39 up and 18 down on faceoffs on the way to a 45-24 overall edge.

On the other side of that coin, Josh Bailey…1-for 12. Doug Weight…4-for-17. Guys, you do know you can use a stick in the faceoff circle, right?

The Islanders’ Joel Rechlicz is nicknamed, “The Wrecker.” Think he comes by the name accidentally? In four seasons (and counting), starting in the QMJHL through last night’s game, he’s had 63 fights. That’s what makes John Erskine’s tussle with him all the more impressive. Choreographed fights of the sort a lot of heavyweights engage in these days are side shows to the game – they really don’t seem to have much of an effect. But there was a distinct change in the energy level in the Caps’ play after Erskine beat Rechlicz. With the Islanders leading 2-0 when that fight took place, you have to wonder if Rechlicz shouldn’t have skated away. Alex Ovechkin scored five minutes after the bout, and the Caps had their feet back under them again.

Give Keith Aucoin credit for recognizing an opportunity and pouncing on his own rebound to get his first goal as a Cap – he was one of the hardest working guys out there all night. But give Eric Fehr credit on that one, too. His persistence in forechecking and using his reach to deflect a pass to Aucoin’s stick started that play.

Is it me, or does it just seem as if Richard Park plays his best hockey against the Caps? Park had 12 shot attempts (Parkvechkin?) and a goal in just over 16 minutes of ice time.

Speaking of Park, how did the puck end up on his stick to be able to split the Caps defense and walk in alone on goalie Jose Theodore? Well, along the boards Michael Nylander got tangled up with Tim Jackman, and Nylander kicked the puck to the center of the ice at the Caps line and onto Park’s stick. Nylander did not see another shift for the rest of the game.

How many times do you see three unassisted goals in a game (ok, one was Backstrom’s empty-netter)?

One looks at Kyle Okposo and sees a little bit of Alex Ovechkin (circa 2006) in this respect…if the Islanders can ever get some talent around this guy, watch out.

How lackadaisical were the Caps over too much of this game? How does 24 giveaways sound? And the Caps lost the turnover battle, 31-16.

Hey, we get the “Unleash the Fury” thing to rouse the crowd in the third period. What we don’t get is having to announce it. Just play it…the crowd knows what to do.

Admit it, the Caps shouldn’t have won this game. For most of the night, the Islanders outworked the Caps in all three zones, and Joey MacDonald had, for the most part, a fine game in goal. But the Caps just have too much skill for that team to cope with. Even when the Caps tried – at times quite literally – to give the two points away, the Islanders couldn’t put it away. And when Green tied things up mid-way in the third, one had the feeling that the Islanders, even with the effort they were expending, were going to fade in the stretch.

That’s not a recipe for success, but then again, the Caps are now 7-2-1 in their last ten games. That’s only one point fewer than the media’s darlings of the month – Carolina and Pittsburgh over the same span of games. The Caps haven’t done it as prettily as Pittsburgh or as confoundingly as Carolina. But two points (or 15) is two points.

In a way, how the Caps are doing this is encouraging. They are finding ways to win games when they don’t have their “A” game, when they have to struggle, be it from illness running through the team or a general lack of intensity given their opponent. Winning when things are going peachy is comparatively easy. Figuring out how to win when you don’t have your best stuff is how a long playoff run could be built.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Islanders, April 1st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Caps return to action after a welcome rest since last Friday’s 5-3 win over Tampa Bay. Tonight’s guest – the New York Islanders – pose another of those “will they play down to the level of their opponent” challenges.

Well, as far as playing down to the level of the opponent is concerned, the Islanders occupy quite the low level, as their numbers suggest…

However, the Islanders did manage to put together a 6-5-2 record for March, which would equal that of the Caps. There were some impressive wins along the way, too, as the Islanders knocked off New Jersey, Montreal, and Chicago before shutting out Detroit in their last road game of the month.

"And I was the goaltender in that game!"

And you are…

“My name is Tommy Flanagan, and I'm a member of Pathological Hockey Liars Anonymous. In fact, I'm the president of the organization! Uh, no…I’m Emperor of the organization…that’s it.”

And you were the goalie in the Islanders shut out of the Red Wings…

“That’s right.”

It says in the score sheet that Joey McDonald was the goaltender…you’re lying, aren’t you?

“I didn't always lie. No, when I was a kid, I told the truth. But then one day, I got caught stealing my brother’s hockey sticks…and my mother caught me. I lied. I told her that my coach told me to do it, that he said my brother’s sticks had more goals in them. And he got fired! Yeah, that's what happened!

“After that, lying was easy for me. I lied about my age and joined a Canadian junior team. I was thirteen at the time…no, I was ten! Yeah... I went to Kamloops, and I was injured catching a puck in my teeth. I didn’t miss a shift…and they made me captain! And then I went to Europe, playing for MoDo-dee-oh-doh, or some Swe…uh, Russian team! Yeah… I was scoring a goal every ga…uhhhh, period! In fact, I won the Hartsky Trophy as the most valuable player that year! Yeah, that's the ticket.

“And then I got a call from Wayne Greztk…uh, Scotty Bow…uh, Toe Blake. Yeah, that’s the ticket. And he offered me a five…ten…sixty million dollar contract! But I wanted to play on the team Mike Milbury was coaching. Yeah, right.. And he told me about Pathological Hockey Liars Anonymous.

“Oh, you'd be surprised how many famous hockey people belong. In fact... at one of the meetings I met my wife – Carrie Milbank! Yes, I'm a changed man now, and all because of Pathological Hockey Liars Anonymous. Why, I - I even have my picture on the cover of The Hockey News. Yeah. Every day! Online!! Yeah.. that's the ticket! Yeah, you betcha!”

April Fools Day…it brings ‘em all out, doesn’t it? Getting back to the real game…What New York was able to do in March that could spell some trouble for the Caps is play respectably, if not spectacularly, on special teams. The Islanders coverted 8-of-46 power plays (17.4%) while killing off 48-of-59 shorthanded situations (81.4%). Those numbers actually got better on the road – 20.0 percent on the power play (6-of-30) and 86.2 percent on the penalty kill (25-of-29).

What is perhaps odd in this improvement for the Islanders is that it was accomplished after their second leading scorer – Bill Guerin – was removed from the lineup and subsequently traded to Pittsburgh. What Guerin’s trade created was an opportunity, and Kyle Okposo seems to have taken advantage of it. In 13 games in March, the rookie was 5-8-13, +2, and had two game winners to his credit. The Caps haven’t seen much of him, as Okposo had played in only one of the three games to date played by these clubs. He had a goal in that game, on January 19th.

Meanwhile, Doug Weight is just getting back into the lineup after missing six weeks to a knee injury. He left quite an impression in the Islanders’ last game – a 4-3 shootout loss to Philadelphia. In what was one of those “I went to a fight, and a hockey game broke out” kind of nights, Weight took on Darrell Powe, getting an instigator and a misconduct on top of the five-minute major, then added a roughing minor penalty later on his way to a 19-penalty minute evening – big stuff for a guy who has averaged a little over 40 minutes of PIMs a year over the last seven seasons coming into this one.

Frans Nielsen is another of those guys who might be taking advantage of the departure of Bill Guerin to make an impression. He was 4-6-10, +2, in his last 11 games in March. Nielsen also had two game winners for the month. Nielsen has an assist in three career games against the Caps.

What the Islanders would probably like to get is some more production out of Andy Hilbert. The center is 11-15-26 in 63 games this year, which probably wasn’t what was envisioned when he was brought to Long Island after getting 18 points in 19 games to close the 2005-2006 season in Pittsburgh. He’s been something of an underperformer since (28 points being his high mark in three seasons with the Islanders), and he was 1-3-4, -2, in 13 games in March. He hasn’t had much success against the Caps, either, going 1-1-2, -2 in 12 career games. He has no points in two games against Washington this year.

On defense, Mark Streit has had as fine a year as one could hope for on a team that struggles as much as do the Islanders. He leads the team in scoring by a wide margin (55 points, compared to 36 for Okposo). Streit also had a fine month of March, going 4-7-11, +7, in 13 games. He’s fifth among all defensemen in total scoring, fifth in goals, and tied for second in power play goals. Against the Caps, he is 3-9-12, -1, in 14 career games, and 1-4-5, +1, in three games this year.

Joey MacDonald will get the call against the Caps tonight in goal, and he – Not Tommy Flanagan – was the author of the 2-0 shutout of the Red Wings at Joe Louis Arena last week. He did not have a busy March, as he was nursing knee and groin injuries for a large portion of it. However, he was 2-0-1, 2.00, .944, with that one shutout for the month. He’s had his troubles against the Caps, though. In two career appearances – both this year – he is 0-1-1, 4.37, .895.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Brendan Witt

Let’s face it, the Caps should score on this team. If the Islanders are to have any chance of preventing that, they are going to have to have some guys step up on the blue line in the absence of Andy Sutton and perhaps Freddy Meyer. Streit has been a horse for the blueliners, but a guy like Witt needs to step up. While Witt is dead last in the NHL in plus-minus (-31), he was even for the month of March and contributed a couple of assists. Against his former team, he is 0-1-1, -5 in ten career games and 0-0-0, -5 in three games this year.

Washington: Eric Fehr

Here is an odd piece of information to take with you for this game. In the two games that MacDonald has played in goal for the Islanders, seven different Caps have the nine goals scored against him. And, of those seven, three of them came from very unlikely sources (Boyd Gordon, Donald Brashear, and Milan Jurcina). Three of them came from Alex Ovechkin, who generally has his way with the Islanders, anyway (11 goals in 14 career games). Another of those goals was off the stick of Eric Fehr, who appears to be getting another shot on the top line tonight. That goal against the Islanders in a 5-2 win on December 4th is his only career goal against New York, but he should get ample opportunities to add to that total tonight. His problem hasn’t been getting shots – he had 27 in 13 games in March, while averaging less than 12 minutes a game on the fourth line more often than not – it’s been getting them to go in. He had one goal on those 27 shots in March.

Well, it’s April. And now, while there will be some experimenting (like Fehr on the top line), it’s time to get down to business. The trick for the Caps is to start playing like it’s the playoffs to ensure that they are still playing at the end of the month, not just the beginning.

Caps 5 – Islanders 2

MVG

Most Valuable Guerin.

Whodathunkit? A 38-year old forward who won a Stanley Cup more than a decade ago but is a minus-30 in his last two seasons, a player who had a disappointing run as a rental two seasons ago, a player whose next point will be his 800th in a 16 year career, is the most followed trading commodity of the past 30 hours.

Plucked from the ice during warm-ups of a game against Buffalo last night, presumably as a prelude to a trade, his fate has been the blogosphere equivalent of the devout packing St. Peter’s Square in Rome, waiting for the white smoke to signal the election of a Pope. So let’s survey the situation. Who is saying what about where Guerin will land?

Chris Botta is the author of “Islanders: Point Blank” and has given every evidence of being as close as close can be to what is happening, although he seems to acknowledge that there is only so much he can know. As he put it, “I’ve also decided that it’s ludicrous for me to not take a stand, put my money down and tell you my hunch. Who am I kidding? This is a friggin’ blog.” Predicted destination: Washington.

Andy Strickland – a St. Louis Blues blogger who happens to have ties to Guerin going back to the days when Guerin skated for the Blues – seems to think (emphatically) that the Capitals are not Guerin’s destination (neither are New Jersey or Boston) and in fact is headed to the Flyers, pending the Flyers shedding some salary.

Lyle Richardson, a.k.a., “Spector,” has been acting more in his role as an aggregator of information. He referenced Botta’s reporting, as well as reports from RDS.ca, the Washington Post, Newsday, and TSN.ca, ultimately concluding that, “it could well be that the potential deal may have fallen through.”

As for that Washington Post reference, Tarik El-Bashir stated point blank that his sources told him that Washington was not (in bold letters) Guerin’s destination.

Bruce Garrioch, with somewhat uncharacteristic understatement, noted that “the Islanders have discussed the possibility of moving RW Bill Guerin. He could end up with the Bruins, Rangers or Devils for a playoff run.” Of course, he has the Caps in the Bouwmeester sweepstakes, too.

Over at Newsday, meanwhile, Greg Logan noted that, “[the source of an early report on the trade] ruled out Boston and the Devils as destinations, and a report out of Washington said the Capitals were not involved. Some speculation centers around Montreal, which has the salary-cap room to accommodate the remaining $1 million on Guerin's contract this season.” Logan also named Carolina, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, the Rangers, Philadelphia, and Florida as potential (if not necessarily likely) landing areas for Guerin.

We could go on, but you get the point. Folks are doing what folks do with a lack of information and a surplus of time – speculating. Some of it is certainly reasonable, and some of it is the product of sources who might be said to be “knowledgeable,” certainly a lot more so than yours truly.

But, being in the prognostication business, we’re struck by the matter of time in this story as the basis for speculation. If this was a simple trade that one finds at this time of year – the player for picks and/or prospects – we’d already be speculating on whether the team Guerin was going to was improved in the deal. But more than 24 hours has passed since Guerin was pulled from the lineup, and there is no indication as to when an announcement is going to be made.

To us, that means there is a second deal that is not yet made. Why a second deal? Because the team to which Guerin is going needs to clear salary cap space. Of the teams identified as possible destinations – Washington, Montreal, New Jersey, Philadelphia, Boston, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Florida, and Carolina, which ones don’t have to clear space to make a deal? Carolina and Buffalo have more than $5 million in payroll space, according to “Cap Central.” You’d have to think they’re not in the mix, or the deal would already have been announced.

So…Washington, Montreal, New Jersey, Philadelphia, Boston, Pittsburgh, and Florida. Still a big population. Florida has the larger problem of what to do with Jay Bouwmeester – whether to trade him for futures or keep him for a playoff run, then lose him to free agency with no return this summer. There is also the matter of whether the Panthers are enough of a contender for Guerin to waive his no-trade clause. And, there is the matter of geography – Guerin is reported not to want to go far from Long Island, so as to remain close to his family. Strike Florida.

If you were to draw a circle on a map around Nassau Coliseum at 300 miles or so (arbitrary, we know), we could rule out Montreal, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo. We’re left with Washington, New Jersey, Philadelphia, and Boston. All of them are contenders, all are in close proximity to Long Island, all are tight against the cap, all – by necessity or desire – are said to be looking at other players. Most notable among other players linked to these teams is Anaheim defenseman Chris Pronger, mentioned in connection with Boston and Washington. Pronger would fetch a big return from either. From Boston, the price has been mentioned as including Phil Kessel. The problem for the Bruins is whether to upset chemistry by moving their leading goal scorer for another defenseman. Guerin is not likely to be as pricey or even, perhaps, as problematic with respect to potential effects on chemistry (at least as it applies when important players are lost). Washington’s problem is more complex, in that the Capitals would have to execute another deal (assuming the Islanders are not in the market merely to trade salary). At the same time, the problem is simpler, since the other deal would have to include Michael Nylander. If the Caps can execute that deal, then bringing in a Pronger or a Guerin is probably doable.

The Flyers have already made a deal, of sorts, waiving Glen Metropolit and Ossi Vaananen so as to accommodate the return of Daniel Briere under the salary cap. The Flyers are as close as close can be under the ceiling and would seem to be in the same position as the Caps – needing to make a separate deal. And, they are mentioned as a landing point for Pronger. But is that worth Joffrey Lupul and Matt Carle, as has been floated? Even if it is, then what would the Flyers have to do to bring in Guerin?

Which brings us to New Jersey. The thought that comes to mind in pondering the Devils’ role in this is “never underestimate Lou Lamoriello.” The only problem with this, though, is the matter of time. The Devils would appear to be in a better position than Washington, Philadelphia, or even Boston in obtaining Guerin straight up in the usual sort of deadline transaction. If that’s true, then a delay shouldn’t have come into play, since Guerin has already accepted the deal.

The matter of time and salary cap concerns, plus a desire for proximity to his family, argue for the team to which Guerin is going is one of Washington, Philadelphia, or Boston. All of them have to clear space to fit the remaining portion of Guerin’s contract under the cap.

Philly has already made accommodations to fit their own player – Briere – under the ceiling. It isn’t clear that they’ll go for another round of moves unless they can do it for a bigger prize – Pronger. And even that seems a stretch.

Boston has chemistry problems that argue against a deal for Pronger, but one for Guerin would take a smaller bite out of Boston’s hide, with what one would think would be lower possibilities for negative effects on chemistry.

For Washington, the matter is simple – move Nylander to create space. But it is complex as well – Nylander has his own no-movement clause.

We were impressed by the relatively strong manner in which Washington was eliminated as the team in question by a source close to Guerin (Strickland) and one with sources close to the Caps (El-Bashir). But Boston and Philadelphia seem to have more complex paths to get Guerin (or Pronger for that matter). The mix of assets they would have to move are more variable than what the Caps would have to do. We are the sort who puts stock in “Occam’s Razor” – among competing solutions to a problem, the simplest among them is generally the correct one.

Unfortunately, for those looking for an end to this story, the simplest solution is also the most specific. Teams like Philadelphia or Boston might have cap troubles that are impediments to a deal, but they can tweak the mix of assets they can use to solve that problem. In that respect, it doesn’t look like any more work than what a team might have to do under normal circumstances to complete a trade at this time of year. However, Washington would appear to have but one road to bringing Guerin on board, and that is to move Nylander. We’re not suggesting Nylander is being obstinate or unreasonable – a contract is something both parties must agree to and obligates both parties to honor its terms. But unless Nylander is moved, we don’t see how Guerin can become a Cap. And that seems to explain the delay better than any other alternative with respect to destination. The simplicity of it argues for the Caps being that team, and the same rigid simplicity argues that there might not be any deal, after all.

A Tale of Two...Quotes

Consider these two quotes...

"No franchise in the league needs more help than the Islanders, the team that time has forgotten. And no city could do more with the spotlight [of a Rangers/Islanders Winter Classic] than New York. The biggest market could use some love once in a while, too."

"The {Phoenix] Coyotes operate under an onerous lease. But that's exactly what previous owner Steve Ellman signed on for in exchange for his land-grab in Glendale, which was exactly the wrong spot to build a new arena and everyone but everyone knew it. Ellman didn't care. He got his land. But now the NHL is supposed to bail out the franchise? Now the NHL is supposed to pump money into an organization that, somehow, is paying head coach Wayne Gretzky more than $5.5M this year and will pay Gretzky between $7-and-8M next season? Please."

Bet you're thinking these are unrelated comments from unrelated writers. Well, you'd be wrong. They would have been penned by the same hand -- the first on January 18th, the second only last weekend.

And yes, both come courtesy of New York's enthusiastic ambassador for...New York, the New York Post's own Larry Brooks.

Seems it's just fine for the league to put the 2010 Winter Classic outdoor game in New York for what is likely to be a deadly dull matchup between the Islanders and the Rangers just to save what looks to be a dying franchise on Long Island. It's just fine in Larry World (otherwise know as, "New York") for the league to forego ad revenue that a more attractive matchup might realize (and perhaps some potential additional ad buzz if the game is a hit). Brooks as much as acknowledges that a Caps/Penguins game -- the example he cited -- would generate higher ratings. But save Phoenix? Surely, you jest.

We're not of a mind to have the league pour money down a rat hole in the desert any more than we are for them to pour it into Long Island. Of course, we're not of a mind to actually commit to print this sort of chuckle, either...

"Tampa Bay management can deny, deny, deny in the best tradition of all sorts of scoundrels, but it is most certainly true that 2008 first-overall draft pick Steven Stamkos is available for trade, at least according to two franchises that have been in contact with the Lightning and have no reason to fib about it."

What's in that guy's morning coffee?


Thanks to Krazijoe on The Official for the latest Larryism.

A TWO-point afternoon: Caps 2 - Islanders 1 (OT)

Two points.

This isn’t the Bowl Championship Series where you get style points for slapping an opponent around for 60 minutes. You get two points for a win, be it by five goals or by an overtime marker.

But that said, Yann Denis deserved better than what he got in the end for the Islanders, a 2-1 overtime loss on his record. The second of two penalties taken by Brendan Witt on the day (the first resulting in the first Capitals goal), a pass by Sergei Fedorov to Alexander Semin while falling down along the right wing boards, a feed by Semin across the crease to Alex Ovechkin, and it was all over.

Thank God.

The Caps had countless chances getting behind the Islander defense and going in alone on Danis, but time after time Danis was up to the challenge. Even when the Islanders were standing around looking at loose pucks on rebounds from difficult first saves, Danis was there to foil the follow ups.

Meanwhile…

It was sloppy, for the Caps at least – 37 turnovers (17 giveaways by the Caps, 20 takeaways by the Islanders).

Except for a shot on the fly by Jeff Tambellini that rang the crossbar behind Jose Theodore late in the second period, the Islanders were never really all that close to scoring at even strength.

No, nine shots on goal was not a career high for Viktor Kozlov. He had ten on opening night in 1997 against Edmonton while skating for the Sharks.

On the other hand, Brooks Laich’s seven shots was a career high.

Nicklas Backstrom broke his own streak of difficulty on faceoffs, winning nine of 13 draws – the first time he’s been over 50 percent since December 10th.

John Erskine had another strong game; it’s a little more difficult for opponents to set up in front of Jose Theodore in the crease.

Four minor penalties in the third period. Most nights (or days) that’ll kill a team…come to think of it, it almost did today (Islanders scoring on a 5-on-3).

When the Islanders scored on that 5-on-3, it snapped a 4-for-40 streak of futility on the power play. It is also the seventh straight game that the Caps have allowed a power play goal (29-for-38 on the penalty kill – 76.3 percent).

Bill Guerin had seven missed shots. The Caps had a total of nine.

Is the curse of Jon Sim broken? One shot in 11 minutes – and he didn’t score on it.

The Islanders were missing Doug Weight, Trent Hunter, and Andy Hilbert up front. They didn’t get others to step up – Bill Guerin (one shot, no points), Richard Park (one shot, no points), Mike Comrie (one shot, no points) were very quiet.

The win makes this Caps team the fastest to 30 wins. In 1984-85 they beat the Islanders in game 49, 5-1, to go 30-12-7.

Congratulations to Jose Theodore on win #200. After giving up ten goals in his last three games, he was solid.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Islanders, January 19th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

After enduring a three-game losing streak, the Caps have righted themselves in their last pair – victories over Pittsburgh and Boston. But now they get to go on the road while folks party in D.C. over the inauguration of a new President. First up are the New York Islanders, a team that is less playing a hockey season than is serving a prison sentence…

“I wish I could tell you that the Islanders fought the good fight, and the other teams let them be. I wish I could tell you that - but last place is no fairy-tale world. They never said who did it, but we all knew. Things went on like that for awhile – last place life consists of routine, and then more routine. Every so often, the Islanders would show up with fresh ways to lose a game. The other teams kept at them - sometimes they were able to fight 'em off, sometimes not. And that's how it went for the Islanders - that was their routine.”

Red? Red Redding? I thought you were in Mexico.

“Zihuatanejo…”

Say what?

“Zihuatanejo…”

Yeah, whatever… I guess you can sympathize with the Islanders these days. Must be tough to go play for a team in that position…

"The first night's the toughest, no doubt about it. They march you in naked as the day you were born, skin burning and half blind from that delousing shit they throw on you, and when they give you that stupid blue and orange uniform with the goofy piping... and you sit in front of that locker... that's when you know it's for real. A whole career blown away in the blink of an eye. Nothing left but all the time in the world to think about it."

I wonder if losing doesn’t get to be a habit. The Islanders have done a lot of it lately…

“That locker room is funny. First you hate it, then you get used to it. Enough time passes, you get so you depend on it. That's institutionalized losing.”

I could never get like that.

“They send you there for life – uh, a three-year contract – and that's exactly what they take. The part that counts, anyway.”

Well, at least the Caps are entertaining these days. Have you had a chance to see them since you came up from say-what-a-key-hole?

“Zihuatanejo…I find I'm so excited, I can barely sit still or hold a thought in my head. I think it's the excitement only a free man can feel, a free man at the start of a long winning streak whose conclusion is uncertain. I hope I can make it to the arena. I hope to see the Caps, and buy an overpriced beer. I hope the Caps are as good as they have been in my dreams. I hope.”

Well, if you get the feeling the Caps shouldn’t lose this game, you’re right…on paper. That the Caps are 33 points ahead of the Islanders in the standings is not a “Ripley’s: Believe It or Not” occurrence. The numbers suggest the chasm between the teams.


Let’s look at this another way – if the leading Islander…

...in points is Mark Streit, with 33, he’d only be fourth on the Caps.

...in goals is Bill Guerin, with 14, he’d only be fourth on the Caps.

...in assists are Streit and Doug Weight, with 25, they’d only be third on the Caps.

...in plus-minus is Andy Sutton, with +3, he’d only be tied for 11th on the Caps. Of course, Sutton is out after undergoing foot surgery. Among players who have played in at least 30 games, the leader is Richard Park at -3… he’d be tied for 26th on the Caps.

You getting the picture?

A long cold winter is settling in on Long Island. The Islanders have only won two games since Christmas, only three since Thanksgiving. Since beating Montreal in a shootout, 4-3, on the day before Thanksgiving, New York is 3-19-2. Exclusive of Gimmick goals, they have been outscored 93-56 in those 24 games. They have been held to fewer than three goals 14 times over that period. They’ve allowed more than four ten times.

In terms of stopping pucks, it has hardly mattered who has been in goal. Joey MacDonald is 2-14-2, Yann Danis is 0-4-0, and Rick DiPietro, who has been plagued by a series of injuries this year (knee, groin, knee again) is 1-1-0 in that 24-game slide. Wade Dublelewicz, who might have filled in as a backup, has managed to escape from Shawshan—uh, Long Island, having been claimed by Columbus on procedural waivers on Saturday. In Saturday’s 3-1 loss to the New Jersey Devils, Danis suited up and took the decision, and Peter Mannino dressed as the Islander backup. We’re thinking an emergency call has gone out to Billy Smith for the Monday afternoon tilt against the Caps.

As noted above, Mark Streit leads the Islanders in scoring. It might at first glance seem a bit odd that a defenseman should lead the team in scoring, but his 33 points is fourth among the league’s defensemen. On the other hand, Bill Guerin’s 32 points ranks only 66th in the league among forwards, so the problem isn’t Streit.

If there is an Islander who has had even a hint of success lately, it would be Streit. He went from November 22nd through January 8th without suffering consecutive scoreless games (4-17-21 in 23 games). However, he is scoreless in his last three, although going scoreless against the Rangers, Bruins, and Devils – three of the better defensive teams in the league – is not altogether unheard of. Streit is 3-8-11, -1 in 13 career games against the Caps with a pair of power play goals and game winner. He is 1-3-4, +1 in two games this year.

While we’re on the defense, Chris Campoli deserves mention. Campoli is in his fourth season with the club and is eighth on the team in scoring (5-9-14). He is also the highest scorer among home-grown Islanders, which speaks to a rather barren developmental system. If you look at the seven players ahead of Campoli on the scoring list, only three of them are under 30 (Trent Hunter, Mike Comrie, and Andy Hilbert), while two are well past 35 (Bill Guerin, Doug Weight). There are some promising kids on the roster – Kyle Okposo (5-8-13 in 38 games) and Josh Bailey (1-10-11 in 31 games), but their time is down the road a bit.

Once more, the Caps can renew acquaintances with Jon Sim, who might as well be named “Gretzky” for his work against the Caps. Sim is 12-8-20, +7 in 23 career games with the Caps, 46-40-86, -37 in 324 career games against everyone else. He hasn’t had a lot of success this year, going 6-2-8, -13 in 38 games and a healthy scratch as often as not lately (seven times in the last 17 games). The only goal he’s had since Thanksgiving is, yes…you guessed it, against the Caps. We’re guessing he’ll get a jersey for this game.

And then there is Brendan Witt. OK, he doesn’t score; he didn’t in Washington. He’s only 0-3-3 in 33 games. Such are the totals for a “defensive” defenseman. But, uh… where’s the defense? He ranks dead last among NHL defensemen in plus-minus (-27) and he is only third among defensemen on his own team in hits (66), trailing Mark Streit and Freddy Mayer, neither of whom would normally be considered bruisers. He hasn’t even been especially ornery. His 38 penalty minutes leave him on a pace for 79, far below his career average of 132 PIMs per 82 games.

Right now, the Islanders don’t resemble an NHL roster as much as they do a shopping list. Guys like Bill Guerin, Doug Weight, perhaps even Brendan Witt will likely be moved down the road for picks and prospects. There just isn’t a lot of hope left in this season for the Islanders, except that which might come from a ping-pong ball drawing.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Bill Guerin

With two of the top six scorers on an offense-challenged team on injured reserve (Doug Weight, Andy Hilbert), the load falls to the captain. He’s had good success against the Caps over his career(23-11-34 in 46 games) and has been even more productive lately (4-4-8 in six games over this season and last). But on the other hand, Guerin has had only three goals in his last 18 games. If the former Guerin shows up, the Islanders have a chance. If the latter shows up, the competitive portion of the game might be over early.

Washington: Mike Green

Green has never scored a goal against the Islanders (0-3-3 in 11 career games), one of only two Eastern Conference teams he has failed to score on in his young career (Pittsburgh being the other). But he has a tendency so far this year to certain patterns in his scoring. He has had three occasions of scoring goals in consecutive games (and he has one in his last game, against Boston). He also has scored points in bunches – a six points in five games run to start the year, a ten points in six games stretch from November 10th through December 12th, a six points in four games streak from December 28th through January 3rd. He is at the moment in a six points in four games run. If he continues it, chance are the Caps will be successful in this one.

The Islanders have dropped two games to the Caps in two tries so far, but the second one – the only one on Long Island – was a 5-4 overtime affair that wasn’t settled until the last 11 seconds of the extra frame (Alex Ovechkin won it after Jon Sim – figures – tied it in regulation). The Caps can’t just toss their sticks on the ice and expect a win. On the other hand, there would be no excuse for losing to this team. We don’t think they will…

Caps 5 – Islanders 2

"N" Does Not Stand for "New York"

We've long ago become accustomed to Larry Brooks thinking that the world of hockey ends at the Hudson River, but in a column he penned today, he's really jumped the shark...

"Now that it has a hit on its hands, the NHL should whenever possible use the Winter Classic as a vehicle to help needy markets and franchises. Which is why next season's Winter Classic should be played in New York between the Islanders and Rangers..."

You read right...the Rangers and the Islanders. Teams with about as much buzz as a flat beer.

But hey, what did you expect? It's all about New York with Brooks. And he doesn't even try to paper it over...

"We understand. The rest of the country might yawn. The NHL wouldn't be able to crow about the ratings. NBC might not like it. This is all irrelevant, and most certainly the part about NBC, or at least until the network actually, you know, pays rights fees to the league. But a New York-New York Bowl would benefit the league's most important American market."

Guess it might have escaped notice that a game like this -- highlighting venues, teams, and star players -- might help the franchises of the NHL locally. If someone in one of those small markets Brooks sneers at sees this spectacle, perhaps that viewer might be more inclined to go to a game in his market or tune in a bit more often to his team.

But in Larry World, the only franchise that needs help is the Islanders. Never mind that the franchise has been run into the ground by management that might be charitably described as "strange." Or that the team has finished dead last in attendance in two of the last three seasons, and seems destined to finish there once more. Or that the team -- 1-8-1 in their last ten games and dead last in the league standings (nine points behind 29th place Atlanta) -- seems to be in a hellbent rush to draft John Tavares or Victor Hedman.

One game on a winter's day in January, whether it is in the new Yankee Stadium, Citi Field, Central Park, or Brooks' living room isn't going to rescue a moribund franchise, not given the deeper structural problems it faces -- inept management, an old facility, lack of talent with the parent club, a lack of depth in their farm system. Giving a slot in this game to the Islanders looks an awful lot like rewarding bad behavior. And when the game is over, the folks who stand in charge of the wreckage that is the Islanders will still be there.

The National Football League can afford the occasional (or even the frequent) dull Super Bowl game because it is the biggest event on the North American athletic calendar. The NHL doesn't have nearly so much good will banked with fans to afford a "Stinker in the Bronx" that a Rangers-Islanders game might provide.

Larry, the "N" in "NHL" doesn't stand for "New York." Really...it doesn't.

A TWO-point night: Caps 5 - Islanders 4 (OT)

Thrill rides are wonderful things, as long as you get to walk away from them when they’re over. If you end up in a tangled heap of twisted metal and body parts…not fun.

By that standard, the Caps’ 64 minute, 49.3 second thrill ride on Long Island ended happily in a 5-4 win over the Islanders. Alex Ovechkin, who earlier in overtime hit iron twice – on the same shot – flipped a wrong-footed wrist shot past goaltender Joey MacDonald for the win.

One could forgive the Caps and Caps fans of thinking this would be one that would slip away as that man – Jon Sim – scored on a redirection with 2:13 left in regulation to tie the game, 4-4. That was Sim’s 12th career goal against the Caps in 23 career games.

If the Caps had let this one slip away, it would have been criminal. First, because a very good team doesn’t lose to a team like the Islanders – struggling, thin on talent. Second, because the Caps didn’t play quite as bad a game (well, goalie Brent Johnson didn't, anyway) as having allowed four goals suggests. There was the shot that Doug Weight took that was deflected down and in by Tom Poti as he was trying to prevent an Islander from doing just that. There was the shot that Richard Park took that threaded between Boyd Gordon and David Steckel that Johnson could not quite get a bead on. Steckel was playing without a stick and couldn’t defend the play. But that’s hockey – those things happen and sometimes make a weak team competitive in a game they otherwise, well, aren’t being competitive in.

But in the end, two points is two points, and that gets the Caps to 41. It is the earliest that the Caps have passed the 40-point mark – 31 games – since the 1991-1992 season (29 games, 20-9-0). It also allowed them to better their road record to 7-9-2, which is important as only five of 40 playoff teams over the last five seasons out of the Eastern Conference had a less than .500 road record (none over the last two seasons).

Other stuff…

- It seems safe to say Alexander Semin’s “upper body” is okay. That no-look, behind-the-back pass to set up Alex Ovechkin’s first goal torqued his torso pretty good. Semin was otherwise feeling pretty good…nine shot attempts (four shots), a hit, a takeaway, and he spit a couple of faceoffs. And, more than 23 minutes of ice time, in what was his second highest ice time total for the season.

- Sometimes, goals are scored by sheer stick-to-it effort, as was the case when Boyd Gordon jabbed, jabbed again, and jabbed some more at a loose puck to MacDonald’s right before poking it through the only place that was open – under MacDonald’s skate blade that was pressed against the right post.

- Then there are the goals that just happen, as when Brooks Laich was skating down the left side, pushed the puck harmlessly past an Islander and at the net, and watched as MacDonald whiffed on an attempt to poke it away only to have it slide under his pads and softly into the net. Ten years from now, that is a laser of a wrist shot that found the five hole. No matter, they all count.

- With a goal tonight, Milan Jurcina is 2-2-4, +5 in his last seven games. What’s more, he had six shot attempts, the most he’s had since also having six against Montreal on November 28th.

- 12 players (including goalie Brent Johnson) had points on the five goals. Only Ovechkin, who had two of the goals, and Nicklas Backstrom (two assists) had multi-point games. It’s nice seeing a multi-goal game from Ovechkin, but it might be as helpful getting points out of players like Donald Brashear, David Steckel, and Boyd Gordon.

- Semin’s missing so many games to injury might hide the fact that he’s on a 127-point scoring pace over an 82 game season. As it is, he’s on a pace for 49-60-109. He’s been held off the score sheet only three times in 20 games. With apologies to Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, and even Alex Ovechkin, Semin is probably the most dangerous offensive player in the league right now, given that he’s putting up points at this pace getting more than three fewer minutes of ice time a game than any of the other three players mentioned. Go ahead, keep talking about his comments about Patrick Kane and Sidney Crosby…we’ll take the points.

- If ever a player was making a case on the ice to stick with the big club in the face of every other argument to send him down to the minors (cough-salary cap-cough), it’s Karl Alzner. He is an NHL-level defenseman. He is not close to reaching his potential, but he is eating up large chunks of solid minutes. Even tonight, though he was on the ice for three of the four Islander goals, it’s going to be tough to send him down.

- We suspect players sleep at night dreaming of the opportunity to execute an open ice hit of the sort Mike Green had on Ben Walter. Good thing for Walter it was Green doing the hitting. If it had been someone like Scott Stevens back in the day…

- If ever the phrase, “the only thing a prevent defense accomplishes is to prevent a club from winning,” it was on display tonight. In the third period, the Caps (holding a two-goal lead), were outshot 17-5, out-scored 2-0. The Caps were outshot 9-4 in the period leading up to the Andy Sutton goal to make it 4-3. Then it got worse, the Caps being outshot 4-0 until the Sim goal to tie it. The Caps didn’t get another shot on goal until there were nine seconds left in regulation, that being by Matt Bradley from more than 50 feet. The Caps didn’t go into a shell, they went to the back of the cave.

- This was only the second of eight games in December in which the Caps failed to score a power play goal. Still, they are 11-for-32 for the month (34.4%).

Early on, this had all the makings of a blowout – 13 shots, two goals in just over 14 minutes. By the end of regulation, the Caps were hanging on for dear life to get out with a point. Then, it looked like a shootout was in the offing as the clock wound down to under 15 seconds. It paid to watch Nicklas Backstrom as the last play was unfolding…he was deep in the Islander zone pressuring Brendan Witt at the end boards. Then, he circled all the way out to the blue line as Ovechkin was fighting Doug Weight for the puck along the side boards. The puck came back to Backstrom’s stick at the blue line, and the center flipped it into open ice where only Ovechkin could retrieve it. The rest was the second standings point as Ovechkin flipped the puck past MacDonald. But what gets lost in the blur of a sudden finish like that is the play of the guy who set the whole thing up. Backstrom made a helluva play.

Nicely done, Nicklas…

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Islanders, December 16th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Just sit right back and you'll hear a tale,
A tale of a fateful trip
That started from this Island port
Aboard this tiny ship.

The goalie was a first year “number one,”
The coach a rookie, too.
Five skaters took the ice that day
In the Long Island Zoo…the Long Island Zoo…

The season started getting rough,
The team was losing games,
If not for the courage of the kid in goal
The team would come up lame,
The team would come up lame.

The team, they skated on the ice
Of this old storied barn



With Gilligan










The Skipper too.











The millionaire and his wife.

The movie star










The professor and Mary Ann...


Here on Charles Wang’s Isle.

So this is the tale of the Islanders,
They've sucked for a long, long time,
They'll have to make the best of things,
It's an uphill climb.

The goalie and the Skipper too,
Will do their very best,
To make the others comfortable,
In the New York island nest.

No goals, no wins, no points this month,
Not a single standings point,
The fans they all were askin’,
"Who’s running this here joint?”

So join us here tonight my friends,
It’s hard to find a smile,
From 20 stranded Islanders,
Here on "Charles Wang’s Isle."


The Islanders have not won in December…at all. Starting with a 5-2 loss to the Capitals on December 4th, the Islanders are 0-6-0 in December. They’ve only had as much as one one-goal game (a 4-3 loss to the Flyers in Philadelphia a week ago). They have been outscored 30-11, and it isn’t as if they’ve been falling to the Red Wings or the Sharks in the midst of this… a 5-1 loss to Atlanta… a 4-2 loss to Toronto… a 3-1 loss to Columbus. When they finally did play a top team on top of their game, the Islanders melted faster than a scoop of Chunky Monkey on a hot plate, getting stomped by Pittsburgh, 9-2.

The Islanders have been utterly dominated in those six December games in other ways…

- In none of those games have the Islanders reached the 30-shot mark, but they have given up at least 35 in four of them.

- Their power play hasn’t exactly been entirely incompetent, registering goals in five of the six games (5-for-27, 18.5%). Their penalty killing is another thing entirely… the Islander have allowed at least a power play goal in each of the six games and is only 24-for-34 (70.6%) in penalty killing.

- In 18 periods of hockey, they have allowed at least one goal in 15 of them.

- They have been outscored 9-2 in the third period. That is on the heels of being outscored 11-3 in the second period. This team isn’t finishing games well.

- Here is how bad it is for the Islanders… their leader in plus-minus is Andy Sutton (+2). The rest of the overall isn't pretty, either...



The Islanders are yet another team that is banged up. They have no fewer than six players on injured reserve: goalie Rick DiPietro, Mike Comrie, Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen, Bruno Gervais, and Radek Martinek.

What they’re left with is a couple of old guys to plug the holes. Doug Weight leads the team in scoring (6-21-27). He had a five-game scoring streak ended in the last game, a 3-1 loss to Columbus. He’s 3-22-25, -8 in 30 career games against Washington.

Bill Guerin is tied for the team lead in goals scored (11), and he had points in the first four games on this six-game losing streak before being held scoreless by Pittsburgh and Columbus. He is 23-9-32, -2 in 45 career games against the Caps.

Trent Hunter is also tied for the team lead in goals (11) but doesn’t have one since finding the back of the net against the Caps on December 4th. Including that goal, he is 4-7-11, +8 in 18 games against Washington.

Of course, there is Sim…Jon Sim. Cap Killer Jon Sim, with his 11 goals in 22 career games against Washington (46 in 316 games against everyone else). He has never, however, had one as a member of the Islanders. OK, he’s only played against the Caps once in an Islander sweater, so it’s hard to spot a trend.

On the blue line, Brendan Witt brings in a streak of 11 consecutive games without finding himself on the plus-side of the ledger (he has only two such games this year). That’s the longest current streak of any Islander defender.

In goal, the cracks have spread in Joey MacDonald’s game. He was arguably the best Islander on the ice when he allowed four goals on 46 shots in a 5-2 loss to Washington on December 4th. Since then, he’s allowed 16 goals on 108 shots (.852 save percentage) in losing four straight decisions. He has one win in his last eight decisions dating back to November 26th, and in those eight games he has allowed fewer than four goals only twice.

The problem for the Islanders is they really have nowhere else to turn. Yann Danis has appeared twice on this six-game losing streak and been shelled to the tune of nine goals on 44 shots (.796).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Mark Streit

The Islanders aren’t going to get a lot of chances, if their recent history is a guide. What chances they do get, they will need to capitalize on, and that means converting power plays. Streit leads the team in power play goals and is second (to Weight) in total power play scoring. He’s got to have a big night with his big shot to avoid this going badly for the Islanders.

Washington: Karl Alzner

The Islanders might lack talent and might be depleted, but they can be difficult to play against. They will look to cause grief in the Caps’ end, and that means limiting mistakes in their own end for the Caps. The Islanders might try to pay particular attention to Alzner in forcing him to make decisions with the puck sooner in the hope of causing turnovers. Alzner is a steady, level-headed guy. This will be tested.

This is a dangerous game. The Islanders are thin on talent when healthy. They are absolutely anorexic at the moment. They haven’t played well, or at least successfully in a while. But in Weight and Guerin they have veterans who, if their best days are (long) in their past, still know how to play the game. And there is no team against which a club can just show up and win. The Caps have won five of six, including a couple of stirring wins in their last couple in the midst of goaltending adventures. They might be feeling a bit fat and happy with themselves – a recipe for disaster. Plus, the Caps are still only 6-9-2 on the road.

There are enough warning signs surrounding this game so that the Islanders should have the Caps’ attention. And if they do, they have no business winning this game. They won’t…

Caps 5 – Islanders 2

A TWO-point night: Caps 5 - Islanders 2

Now that’s more like it.

It was Don VanMassenhoeven, uh…hot dog night at Verizon Center, and the Caps applied the hot mustard in a 5-2 win to get back to the normal course of events – winning – at the Phone Booth.

DVM apparently got a great deal on a whistle, because he certainly blew it enough (he and his partner – Kyle Rehman – called 15 minor penalties, nine of them on the Caps). But is was merely a speed bump as the Caps played the python to the Islanders gazelle, wrapping their coils around the Islanders and crushing the life out of them before the final horn (thus ends our nature walk metaphor for the morning).

Viktor Kozlov (our pick as the Caps’ “player to ponder”) was the first star of this contest, but he was hardly alone. Frankly, we were taken by the play of Sami Lepisto, who after having a rather grisly game against Florida on Tuesday, gave a clearer indication of what his contributions might be when his game develops some more. Lepisto attempted 11 shots (three of them getting to the net) and showed what we think European defensemen probably do better than many of their American counterparts – find shooting lanes. With the bigger ice sheet in Europe, defensemen might have the luxury of space to find better angles, and the bigger space might afford them some more time to move into that space. Since the lockout, when the dimensions of the NHL rink changed to provide a larger offensive zone area, the defensemen have a little more room to operate, and Europeans – who might have more experience in this area – seem to be able to take advantage of it. Hey, it’s a theory, but Lepisto certainly was finding room to get shots off from a variety of angles (ok, it isn’t a perfect theory…Lepisto also had five attempts blocked).

We thought, given the Islanders’ gruesome even-strength results this year, that the Caps would have a distinct 5-on-5 advantage. But it was the power play that got the Caps off early, converting on two of their first three opportunities to take a 2-0 lead. Alex Ovechkin netted the first when left all alone on the left side to walk in and snap a wrist shot under goaltender Joey MacDonald’s left arm. The ensuing goal celebration left one with the impression that Ovechkin wasn’t feeling right. Usually one to leap into the boards upon scoring, he barely nudged the glass. He then left Caps fans with their hearts in their throats when he later took what looked like a glancing blow from an Islander at the blue line and left the ice to walk directly to the locker room.

After a Kozlov goal, the Caps got a bit sloppy, giving up yet another first/last minute goal (Mark Streit, on the power play, with 36 seconds left in the first period) and a bang-bang pass-and-a-goal from Andy Sutton to Trent Hunter when Lepisto tried to swat the puck out of the air with his hand, but failed to control it, then lost his footing.

The most interesting play of the night, though, came on the game-winning goal. Karl Alzner wasn’t able to find a shooting lane from the left point. With an Islander in his line of sight, he just shot the puck wide to goaltender Joey MacDonald’s right and off the end boards, where it came back to a clot of players at the right post. Donald Brashear used his reach to push the puck past MacDonald’s left pad, and the Caps had their lead back. It was a creative way for Alzner to get his first point in the NHL. As for Brashear, he described the puck appearing at his feet…”It looked like a big piece of cheese to me.”

Do we now call Brashear, "The Big Cheddar?"

After that, Eric Fehr swooped in and cleaned up the trash by flipping a backhand like a burger at McDonald’s (get it?... McDonald’s?... MacDonald?... I kill me) into the open net for the Caps’ fourth goal. Nicklas Backstrom closed out the scoring by taking a feed from Alex Ovechkin, who passed up a shot of his own for the assist, for an empty-netter.

Some observations…

OK, it was a student discount night, and there were dollar hot dogs. But 18,130 on a Thursday night against a team that isn’t naturally a big draw is pretty good.

Was there a special at Modell’s on fishing equipment? Six hooking penalties were called (three for each club).

If the Caps were, as a team, displeased with their effort on Tuesday, they took things more seriously in terms of effort in this one. Here is your fun number – 20. That was the longest distance a puck traveled off of a Washington stick for a goal...and that was Backstrom’s empty netter. Ovechkin – 11 feet. Kozlov – 14 feet. Brashear – eight feet. Fehr – 13 feet. It might have been the Caps’ best game this year for going to the net.

Only Bryan Helmer and Milan Jurcina failed to register a shot on goal.

Much might be made of Ovechkin’s steady march up the scoring rankings, but Nicklas Backstrom is 7-13-20 in his last 14 games.

Oh, Ovechkin is 12-17-29 in his last 15 games.

It was a shooting gallery out there. How do we know this? Matt Bradley had five shots in less than 11 minutes. The best Islander on the ice was, in fact, their goaltender. If not for MacDonald’s play, that could have been really ugly for the Islanders.

Shouldn’t a team get more than five hits by accident? Just by skating into someone when they’re not looking? The Caps had five hits…two after the first period. Ovechkin didn’t have any of them (something ain’t right here).

An example of putting faith in youth…your leading defenseman in ice time on the penalty kill – Alzner, with 5:31. And Tyler Sloan was right behind him with 5:22. Alzner and Bryan Helmer took the most shifts of anyone with 32 apiece. Tell us you saw that coming a month ago.

Ovechkin’s shot total was interesting…11 shots in all, but six of them came in the third period. As clear an image as one might need of a player who was not shy about trying to put the team on his back.

In their last dozen games, the Caps are 16-for-49 on the power play (32.7 percent). They have at least one power play goal in ten of those games.

All in all it was, as Coach Boudreau put it afterward, “a business game.” The Caps stuck to what they do well – skate hard and pound goalies with shots – and did not wilt when the Islanders made a game of it in the second period. It’s a good way to head off to Toronto to start a short (two game) road trip. Nicely done, guys.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Islanders, December 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

We’re live at Peerless Central to bring you the best that the prognosticatorial arts can provide as the Caps host the New York Islanders at Verizon Center. The guests tonight being the Islanders, with their long tradition of goofy logos depicting a variety of piscatorial scenes, we have a special guest with us to give us some insight into how those who labor in and by the sea follow the sport of hockey. Welcome…uh…

“Call me ‘Ishmael.’”

Welcome, Ishmael. I imagine that being at sea on whaling voyages, you don’t have much occasion to see hockey games live. How is it you came to be a fan of the sport?

“These are the times of dreamy quietude, when beholding the tranquil beauty and brilliancy of the hockey rink’s ice, one forgets the tiger heart that pants upon it; and would not willingly remember, that this velvet paw but conceals a remorseless fang.”

Ah, so you’re a fan of the fisticuffs…

“It smells like the left wing of the day of judgment.”

We thought the left wing of the day of judgment would be someone like Alex Ovechkin…

“There is a Capital ‘weagle’ in some souls that can alike dive down into the blackest gorges, and soar out of them again and become invisible in the sunny spaces. And even if he for ever flies within the gorge, that gorge is in the mountains; so that even in his lowest swoop the Capital ‘weagle’ is still higher than other birds upon the plain, even though they soar."

Sort of sets him apart from the run of the mill hockey player. What is it about the sport that draws you to it?

“Whenever I find myself growing grim about the mouth; whenever it is a damp, drizzly November in my soul; whenever I find myself involuntarily pausing before coffin warehouses, and bringing up the rear of every funeral I meet; and especially whenever my hypos get such an upper hand of me, that it requires a strong moral principle to prevent me from deliberately stepping into the street, and methodically knocking people's hats off--then, I account it high time to get to a hockey rink as soon as I can. This is my substitute for pistol and ball. With a philosophical flourish Cato throws himself upon his sword; I quietly take to the ice.”

What’s your take on the latest player in the news, Sean Avery?

“Is he mad? Anyway there's something on his mind, as sure as there must be something on a deck when it cracks.”

What makes you say that?

"I began to be sensible of strange feelings. I felt a melting in me. No more my splintered heart and maddened hand were turned against the wolfish world. This soothing savage had redeemed it."

Avery? A “soothing savage?” Well, that’s a new one on me…as for the Islanders, what’s your take on their prospects this year?

“Give me a condor’s quill! Give me Vesuvius’ crater for an inkstand! Friends, hold my arms! For in the mere act of penning my thoughts of this Leviathan, they weary me, and make me faint with their outreaching comprehensiveness of sweep, as if to include the whole circle of the sciences, and all the generations of whales, and men, and mastodons, past, present, and to come, with all the revolving panoramas of empire on earth, and throughout the whole universe, not excluding its suburbs. Such, and so magnifying, is the virtue of a large and liberal theme! We expand to its bulk. To produce a mighty book, you must choose a mighty theme. No great and enduring volume can ever be written on the flea, though many there be who have tried it.”

So you’re saying we don’t know?

“Pretty much…”

It’s been tough on Islander followers the last few years. Can you describe what it’s been like for your typical fan?

“He piled upon the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum’s white hump the sum of all the general rage and hate felt by his whole race from Adam down; and then, as if his chest had been a mortar, he burst his hot heart's shell upon it.”

So, is there any hope for the Islanders?...Do they have a chance this year? Or will the whole team need an overhaul? Is there anyone the Islanders can count on in the years ahead to lead them back to a championship?

“The drama's done. Why then here does any one step forth? --Because one did survive the wreck.”

Ah…with his contract, that must mean Rick DiPietro.

As for the game, here is your fun Islander number…34.

That would be the number of even strength goals the Islanders have scored this year, 29th in the league (ahead of only Ottawa). That speaks to an advantage for the team that has the deeper offense (even with the injuries). Add to that the fact that the Caps are 6th in the league in power play goals scored at home, and this should not be a game that lacks for offense, at least from the home club.

But hold on, Skippy…the Islanders are not a club that plays in many blowouts, either. Only two teams in the league have played in fewer three-plus goal games (Minnesota, which should surprise no one, and Detroit, which should inspire a “whaaaaaa?”). The Isles are 1-3 in those games decided by at least three goals. Conversely, they are a respectable team in one-goal contests, going 6-4-2, good for a tie for 17th in winning percentage (the Caps are 4-3-3, tied for 21st). Here are some of the other numbers to note...




Individually, New York is coming into this game with an injury list that rivals the Caps. DiPietro, Bruno Gervais, Radek Martinek, Mike Comrie, Mike Sillinger, Kyle Okposo -- all are banged up. The heavy lifting with respect to the offense will be left to leading overall scorer Doug Weight (5-17-22) and top goal-getter Trent Hunter (ten). Weight hasn’t had any particular success against the Caps in the goal scoring are (three in 29 career games), but has 21 assists against Washington. Hunter can claim an even-strength, a power play, and a shorthanded goal to account for the three he’s scored against the Caps in 17 career games.

However, the Cap-killer here is Jon Sim. He might have skated for eight NHL teams in his career, but the constant seems to be an ability to score against Washington. In 21 career games, he is 11-8-19, with four power play and two game-winning goals.

That team-wide even strength problem shows up in the plus-minus numbers, where only two players are on the positive side of the ledger – defensemen Andy Sutton and Brent Skinner. On the other side, Jeff Tambellini and Bruno Gervais (the latter being out for this one) are on a pace to top -30.

In goal, with DiPietro out recouperating from a knee injury, the chores are likely to fall to Joey McDonald, a fellow who has an unsettling resemblance to Jerry "The Beaver" Mathers. One might be forgiven if they hadn’t heard of McDonald, seeing as how he had a grand total of 17 games of NHL experience over two seasons coming into this year. He's had a respectable run as DiPietro's replacement thus far, though -- 10-9-2, 2.89, .907. If there is a number that is key for McDonald in this one, it is this...three. Over his last nine games, in those in which he's allowed three or fewer goals, he won. More than three?...loss. He is 6-3-0 over that stretch. He was also the NHL's third star of November.


The Peerless' Players to Ponder

New York: Brendan Witt

Mark Streit might have signed the big free agent contract and has posted the best offensive numbers from the blue line (5-12-17), but part of the trick in allowing three or fewer goals is to get some solid play out of the blue line in the defensive zone, and Witt could be the one to set the tone there. Witt missed a dozen games with the dreaded "lower body injury," and he has struggled some in his return (0-1-1, -4 in six games). He is no longer a minutes eater, and Andy Sutton might be the more physical defenseman at this point in their respective careers, but it is an opportunity to make a point against his former team.

Washington: Viktor Kozlov

Continuing the theme of "former team," Kozlov is in a position to return the favor to the Islanders, a team for which he had his highest goal-scoring season (25, in 2006-2007). Since sitting out against Tampa Bay on November 10th, Kozlov is 3-7-10 in 11 games. If the Caps are going to make McDonald's night in goal difficult, Kozlov needs to be involved.

The recipe for this one is to jump on the Islanders early at even strength and keep pushing. If the Islanders hang around, keeping the game close into the third period, they've found ways to win (six of their ten wins being of the one-goal margin variety). The Caps having a third of their lineup out, and the biggest impact perhaps on the blue line, they're going to have to score and score often against a goalie who has never faced the Caps. It'll be a struggle, but we think they will...


Caps 5 - Islanders 4