OK, We've Hit Bottom...Predictions Are Out

In the surest sign that we've pretty much hit bottom in the dog days of hockey off-season, we have not one, not two, but three sets of predictions out. Never mind that teams are still likely kicking the tires on deals and/or signings that could influence their opening night rosters, we've got reasonable folks with nothing better to do than to go on record six weeks before the season starts with their outlooks.

Courtesy of Spector and James Mirtle, here they are...

The Sports Forecaster

Eastern Conference.

Northeast

Ottawa Senators
Buffalo Sabres
Toronto Maple Leafs
Boston Bruins
Montreal Canadiens

Atlantic

New York Rangers
Pittsburgh Penguins
New Jersey Devils
Philadelphia Flyers
New York Islanders

Southeast

Carolina Hurricanes
Tampa Bay Lightning
Florida Panthers
Washington Capitals
Atlanta Thrashers.

Western Conference

Central

Detroit Red Wings
St. Louis Blues
Chicago Blackhawks
Nashville Predators
Columbus Blue Jackets

Northwest

Colorado Avalanche
Calgary Flames
Minnesota Wild
Vancouver Canucks
Edmonton Oilers

Pacific

San Jose Sharks
Anaheim Ducks
Dallas Stars
LA Kings
Phoenix Coyotes.

The Hockey News

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Ottawa
NY Rangers
Pittsburgh
Buffalo
Carolina
Tampa Bay
New Jersey
Atlanta
Philadelphia
Washington
Toronto
Florida
Montreal
NY Islanders
Boston

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Detroit
Anaheim
Calgary
San Jose
Minnesota
Vancouver
Nashville
Colorado
St. Louis
Chicago
Dallas
Los Angeles
Edmonton
Columbus
Phoenix

McKeen's

EASTERN

Pittsburgh
Ottawa
NY Rangers
Buffalo
New Jersey
Toronto
Carolina
Montreal
Tampa Bay
Philadelphia
Florida
Washington
Boston
Atlanta
NY Islanders

WESTERN

Detroit
Colorado
Dallas
Anaheim
Vancouver
San Jose
Calgary
Minnesota
Los Angeles
St. Louis
Nashville
Chicago
Edmonton
Columbus
Phoenix

Clearly, there is little Caps love at this early juncture, but then again, who had Pittsburgh as a 105-point team-in-waiting at this point last year? Here is what Spector passed along last year from a few publications (note: the predictions are not his):

THE HOCKEY NEWS YEARBOOK PREDICTIONS:

EASTERN

Carolina Hurricanes
Ottawa Senators
New York Rangers
New Jersey Devils
Buffalo Sabres
Philadelphia Flyers
Montreal Canadiens
Atlanta Thrashers
Tampa Bay Lightning
Toronto Maple Leafs
Florida Panthers
Boston Bruins
Pittsburgh Penguins
New York Islanders
Washington Capitals

WESTERN

Anaheim Ducks
Nashville Predators
Calgary Flames
San Jose Sharks
Dallas Stars
Detroit Red Wings
Minnesota Wild
Columbus Blue Jackets
Phoenix Coyotes
Los Angeles Kings
Vancouver Canucks
Edmonton Oilers
Colorado Avalanche
Chicago Blackhawks
St. Louis Blues

THE SPORTING NEWS (Division)

Atlantic 1. Rangers 2. Devils 3. Flyers 4 Islanders 5. Penguins

Northeast 1. Sabres 2. Senators 3. Canadiens 4. Maple Leafs 5. Bruins

Southeast 1 Hurricanes 2. Thrashers 3. Lightning 4. Capitals 5. Panthers

Central 1. Predators 2. Red Wings 3. Blackhawks 4. Blue Jackets 5 Blues

Pacific 1. Sharks 2. Ducks 3. Stars 4. Kings 5. Coyotes

Northwest 1. Canucks 2.Flames 3. Avalanche 4 Oilers 5. Wild

THE SCORE (Division)

Northeast 1. Sabres 2. Senators 3. Bruins 4. Maple Leafs 5. Canadiens

Atlantic 1. Devils 2. Rangers 3. Flyers4 Islanders 5. Penguins

Southeast 1. Lightning 2. Hurricanes 3. Thrashers 4 Capitals 5 Panthers

Central 1 Predators 2. Rd Wings 3. Blue Jackets 4. Blues 5. Blackhawks

Northwest 1. Flames 2. Wild. 3. Canucks 4. Avalanches 5. Oilers

Pacific 1. Ducks 2. Sharks 3. Stars 4. Coyotes 5. Kings

Who is this year's "Pittsburgh" that everyone is missing?

Benchmarks, Part VII -- The Power Play

We’ve looked at the positions, now it’s time to get to the specialties. First up is the power play…

BENCHMARK: San Jose Sharks

There are two elements to this, one of which is obvious. We’ll start with that. San Jose finished second in the NHL last year in power play conversion rate at 22.4 percent (finishing .077 percent ahead of Anaheim). Montreal led the NHL with a 22.8 percent conversion rate. The Sharks also finished second in total power play goals (92) to Pittsburgh (94). What sets San Jose apart (barely) from any of these three clubs was the less obvious element – their short-handed goals allowed (four). The differential of +88 was better than either Anaheim (+85), Pittsburgh (+81), or Montreal (+80).

San Jose also had much more balance in its power play than any of these three clubs. Pittsburgh was essentially a top-unit power play. The quintet of Sidney Crosby, Sergei Gonchar, Evgeni Malkin, Ryan Whitney, and Mark Recchi accounted for 66 percent of the 92 power play goals the Penguins tallied last year. In Anaheim, Teemu Selanne had 25 goals by himself (28 percent of the Ducks’ total and more than twice as many as any other Duck). Selanne’s signing status is another reason why The Peerless thinks Anaheim will not repeat as Stanley Cup champion. The Canadiens were another club that looked like a one-unit group – Sheldon Souray, Saku Koivu, and Michael Ryder accounting for 55 percent of the Habs’ 86 goals. Meanwhile, the Sharks had ten different players register at least ten power play points (Anaheim and Montreal had nine, Pittsburgh had seven).

There isn’t really much difference among the four teams in terms of outcomes. All four were effective – all had a differential of about a goal a game to the good side. San Jose comes out a bit ahead, but there is something all share that we’ll get to next…

Capitals (projected top unit): Alexander Ovechkin, Michael Nylander, Alexander Semin, Tom Poti, Chris Clark

My favorite movie of all time is “The Wizard of Oz” (go figure). And my favorite movie speech of all time belongs to the Cowardly Lion…

What makes a king out of a slave? Courage! What makes the flag on the mast to wave? Courage! What makes the elephant charge his tusk in the misty mist, or the dusky dusk? What makes the muskrat guard his musk? Courage! What makes the sphinx the seventh wonder? Courage! What makes the dawn come up like thunder? Courage! What makes the Hottentot so hot? What puts the "ape" in apricot? What have they got that I ain't got?

Well, what do the four teams above got that the Caps ain’t got? And don’t say, “courage.” No, it’s a real-life center and defenseman who have some familiarity and success with a power play. Look at those four teams and the power play scoring of their top center and top defenseman:

Pittsburgh: Sidney Crosby (13-48-61)/Sergei Gonchar (10-38-48)
Montreal: Saku Koivu (11-32-43)/Sheldon Souray (19-29-48)
San Jose: Joe Thornton (10-44-54)/Matt Carle (8-18-26)
Anaheim: Andy McDonald (8-25-33)/Chris Pronger (8-28-36)

Meanwhile, the Caps had Dainius Zubrus (9-12-21) and Brian Pothier (2-13-15). 36 total points from this pair would have rendered them at or below all but Carle and McDonald among the eight individual players above. Any wonder the Caps finished 24^th in power play conversion and 19^th in total power play goals scored? 49 percent of the power play goals (33) and 43 percent of total power play scoring (75 points) came from two wingers – the Alexes.

Here is another set of numbers to chew on…the Caps generated only 108 assists for 67 total power play goals last year – 1.61 assists per goal. San Jose had 176 assists for 92 goals – 1.91 assists per goal. More people contributed more effectively to the Sharks’ power play than was the case for the Capitals. Having little support from the center or defenseman positions probably had much to do with that.

It is not hard to imagine that the single biggest area of improvement for the Caps this year will be here, on the power play. The Caps did not suffer for chances last year – they were tied for eighth in the NHL in total power play opportunities. It was simply a case of too much of the power play running – by virtue of necessity – through the two wingers, Ovechkin and Semin. The effects of the additions of Michael Nylander and Tom Poti are likely to be felt here as much or more than in any other area. Nylander had 37 power play points last year (14 goals/23 assists); Poti had 32 points (six goals, 26 assists). Matching those numbers this year would put those two on a par with Anaheim’s total of 67 points from those two positions last year.

The Caps do not have a Joe Thornton on the roster, although in time Nicklas Backstrom might (and that would be the operative word here) approach Thornton’s level of productivity as a playmaker. Until then, the Caps might not get the job done as efficiently as did San Jose, with its comparatively balanced approach to the power play with Thornton as the primary distributor, but it could be among the most dangerous units in the league, merely by virtue of the moves George McPhee made this summer.

Ted vs. Steve...the Real Story

You can't swing a dead cat in the local blogosphere (assuming such a thing was possible) without reading the latest from Ted Leonsis about Steve Czaban and Radio Free 980, Steve Czaban about Ted, or commentary about Ted and Steve. The Peerless will leave it to you to do the reading from Ted, Steve, JP, Caps Nut, OFB, and Dan (feel free to expand your search...there are likely to be other juicy nuggets that can be found).

But only The Peerless can bring you "The Real Story." It goes back to a meeting in a darkened booth in a seedy bar in upper Northwest Washington, where the two protagonists had a meeting . . .


Steve...sh*t, I'm bored. It's hot, there aren't any Redskin games, and Pollin is really getting on my nerves.

Ted....I hear ya. I'm tired of having nothing to write about on my blog except that 'Nanking' thing, and surfing the chat rooms on AOL gets old real quick.

Steve...we gotta liven up this burg...any ideas?

Ted...I dunno...wanna start a fight?

Steve...what do you have in mind?

Ted...well ok, try this on...that Beckham guy is coming to DC soon, and I know you guys won't be devoting much air time to that. You could have a segment or two that makes fun of the soccer fans here and maybe link that up with hockey...

Steve...the 'no one watches' angle...

Ted...right...then I'll blog for a few days on how you guys don't 'get it'...

Steve...and I come back a few days later with my own blog, sprinkle in a few 'radio jargon' terms no one will understand, and we'll have a full blown kerfuffle on our hands.

Ted...and folks will be talking about us for days...your ratings will go up...folks will buy more hockey tickets...

Steve...yeah, right...

Ted...see, you're getting in the spirit of it...and then I can come on your show and we can have a mano-e-mano to the death.

Steve...that's not a bad idea

Ted...yeah, and it beats reading those insufferably boring Caps blogs all summer.

laughter ensues...


Where you stand depends upon where you sit as to whether Czaban stepped in it or Ted was pwned. But as for the real story, remember, you read it here first.

Benchmarks, Part VI -- Goaltending

Next up in this look at benchmarks, it’s goaltending…

This is not a look at individual goaltenders, trying to compare Olaf Kolzig to his fellow number one netminders in the league. It is more of a “Jennings” look at goaltenders. The Jennings award, according to the citation at NHL.com, “is an annual award given to the goalkeeper(s) having played a minimum of 25 games for the team with the fewest goals scored against it.”

BENCHMARK: Minnesota – Niklas Backstrom (no, not that one) and Manny Fernandez

This is something of an odd and, for the Caps (if they’re lucky), unattainable one. Why? Well, who was the number one, and who was the backup? In the playoffs, the number one was Backstrom, but in the regular season? Backstrom had 41 appearances, while Fernandez had 44. The balance extended to several other measures, too:

Minutes played: Fernandez – 2,422/Backstrom – 2,227
Shots Faced: Fernandez – 1,158/Backstrom – 1,028
Wins: Backstrom – 23/Fernandez – 22

But this is very misleading. Of Fernandez’ 44 appearances, only one came after January 30^th, the product of a knee injury. Given that opening, Backstrom stormed into it. After January 30^th, Backstrom was 18-3-3, 1.95, .921, over the remainder of the regular season.

It was an odd set of circumstances that resulted in such statistical balance, yet such a clear difference between the first and second halves of the year for the Minnesota goaltending pair. But if anything, it points out the need for a reliable backup who can eat minutes. A team aspiring to a playoff position does not always have the luxury of having a Martin Brodeur and a baseball cap at the end of the bench (with apologies to Scott Clemmensen, who bolted New Jersey for Toronto, where he won’t be the number one – or the number two, unless the Leafs move a goalie -- but where he might get more than the odd game every other month).

There is a certain nobility to the notion of the “iron man,” but the days of Glenn Hall are long over. Of the top ten goalies in games played in the regular season last year, three did not make the playoffs (Andrew Raycroft, Dwayne Roloson, and Tim Thomas). Of the seven who made the playoffs, four didn’t make it past the first round. Two others (Lundqvist, Luongo) who defeated top-ten goalies in the first round lost in the second round.

Between the finalists for the Stanley Cup, Jean-Sebastien Giguere played “only” 56 games in the regular season for Anaheim, and Ray Emery 58 games for Ottawa. Whatever the circumstances surrounding those goalies (injury, excellent overall supporting cast), they were fresher in June than might have been the case if they had played 70-plus games.

These days, while settling on one goaltender is the preferred formula for the playoffs, having two goalies who can provide quality time appears to be an essential ingredient for success in the regular season to get a club to the playoffs. While Minnesota came about that in a somewhat roundabout way, the Wild did manage to make the playoffs, largely on what their “backup” did for them.

Capitals (projected) – Olaf Kolzig, Brent Johnson

Kolzig has been a minutes-eater since assuming the number one responsibilities in 1997-1998. Since taking over the top-spot, his per-season endurance numbers look like this:

Games: 65
Minutes: 3,830
Shots faced: 1,865
Shots faced-per-60 minutes: 29.2

However, it is interesting to note that since the 1999-2000 season, Kolzig’s numbers have decreased each year in two relevant areas:

Games: from 73 to 54
Minutes: from 4,371 to 3,184

Couple that with the fact that Kolzig will be 38 on the day after the regular season ends, and it is apparent that the Caps are going to have to get production from the backup goaltending position, if not have a backup who can assume the top job for significant stretches.

Is Brent Johnson that backup? Well, it seems his tenure with the Caps has been something like the little girl with the curl…when he’s been good, he’s been very good. And when he's been bad...

Overall with the Caps, Johnson is 15-27-8, 3.53, .897. These are not bad, but neither are they comforting statistics, even for a number-two goaltender. But in 56 games in which he’s played over the past two seasons, Johnson has registered 15 games in which he allowed or was on a pace to allow two or fewer goals. The trouble is, he’s also had 16 games in which he allowed or was on a pace to allow five or more goals. Last year, which serves as the benchmark, he was eight games on the good side and seven games on the bad side of that comparison in 30 total games. By way of comparison, Kolzig was 22 and 8 last year.

It’s difficult to generate a lot of consistency when your work is infrequent and intermittent. But there is a window into Johnson’s performance when he gets more consistent work. From February 15 – March 12, Johnson played in 12 of 13 games the Caps played (corresponding to Kolzig’s knee injury). Over that period, he was 1-8-2 (one no-decision), 3.47, .886. The latter two numbers are not all that different from his season numbers of 3.61, .889. But only twice in that span did Johnson allow or play on a pace to allow five or more goals. Four times did he give up two or fewer. He was more consistent around his season numbers, and that’s the good news.

There has been a lot of focus on Johnson in this benchmark, but that is because unless Kolzig simply forgets how to strap on his pads (he should be a constant in the games he plays), Johnson is the key. Playoff aspirants can’t afford to give away games when the number one goaltender isn’t on the ice. If one looks at the 16 teams that made the playoffs last year, here are the principal backups and their records:

Buffalo: Ty Conklin (16 games, 3-5-2, 3.34, .879)
New Jersey: Scott Clemmensen (6 games, 1-1-2, 3.15, .889)
Atlanta: Johan Hedberg (21 games, 9-4-2, 2.89, .898)
Ottawa: Martin Gerber (29 games, 15-9-3, 2.78, .906)
Pittsburgh: Jocelyn Thibault (22 games, 8-7-2, 2.83, .909)
NY Rangers: Kevin Weekes (14 games, 4-6-2, 3.39, .879)
Tampa Bay: Marc Denis (44 games, 17-18-2, 3.19, .883)
NY Islanders: Mike Dunham (19 games, 4-10-3, 3.74, .889)
Detroit: Chris Osgood (21 games, 11-3-6, 2.38, .907)
Anaheim: Ilya Bryzgalov (27 games, 10-8-6, 2.47, .907)
Vancouver: Dany Sabourin (9 games, 2-4-1, 3.70, .906)
Nashville: Chris Mason (40 games, 24-11-4, 2.38, .925)
San Jose: Vesa Toskala (38 games, 26-10-1, 2.35, .908)
Dallas: Mike Smith (23 games, 12-5-2, 2.23, .912)
Minnesota: Niklas Backstrom (41 games, 23-8-6, 1.97, .929)
Calgary: Jamie McLennan (9 games, 3-5-1, 3.60, .895)

Johnson is certainly not the worst if included in that group, but there are some facts to note here (and yes, there is a chicken-and-the-egg element to it):

-- None of the ten goalies who played more than 20 games in this group (except for Marc Denis, who was demoted) had a below-.500 record.

-- None of the ten goalies who played more than 20 games (again, except Denis) had a goal-against of more than 3.00

-- Only two of the ten goalies in this group who played more than 20 games had a save percentage below .900 (Denis and Johan Hedberg)

Minnesota got spectacular play from a player thought to be a backup. So good, in fact, that the “starter” is now in Boston. But the point is that if a backup is going to be playing significant time, and the history of the past several years with the Caps indicates that he will, then he needs to provide a consistent (despite his still intermittent appearances) level of play. Johnson will need to improve on his numbers for the Caps to have realistic playoff aspirations. Part of that will be the improvement in the play around him – the Caps did upgrade at several positions and should see further development at others. Part of that will be Johnson improving, too. That could be the key to solid overall goaltending this year.

Tocchet Sentenced

TSN.ca reports that Rick Tocchet, convicted of third-degree conspiracy to promote gambling and third-degree promoting gambling, has received his sentence. He received two years of probation on each count, to be served concurrently.

It is certainly one of the sadder episodes in recent NHL history. For those hockey fans among us who might snicker at the foibles plaguing the NFL, NBA, and major league baseball these days, this serves as a helping of humility.

Guilty!....of bad fashion

One of the enduring truths about sport is that if someone does something, and it is successful, it will be copied within an inch of its life.

Witness what JP has posted over at Japers' Rink...

The New York Islanders have changed their uniform in a transparent attempt to ride the coattails of the Buffalo Sabres from last year. Number on the right front shoulder. Given where the Isles have to play their games, and the likelihood of repeating a playoff appearance this year, the relevant comparison might not be to the Sabres. You judge...

Benchmarks, Part V -- Defensive Balance

The fifth installment in this package looks at the matter of balance in the defensive squad, as opposed to a focus on top pairs. So, what is the benchmark here?

BENCHMARK: Buffalo –

Brian Campbell
Dmitri Kalinin
Teppo Numminen
Nathan Paetsch
Jaroslav Spacek
Toni Lydman
Henrik Talinder

This group was the most balanced group of defensemen in the NHL, or at least the most successful in implementing a balanced approach to their game. Here are examples of the balance expressed by this squad:

Games: All played at least 63 games, with the exception of Tallinder, who was limited to 47 games due to a broken arm and sprained ankle.

Points: While Brian Campbell led the group with 49 points (a product of his 42 assists, tied for second on the club), the rest fell between 19 and 29 points. Tallinder had 14 points in his 47 games, which projects to 24 over a full season.

Plus/Minus: Campbell, again, stands higher than the rest of the pack with a +28 (which tracks with his points), but the rest fall neatly between +10 and +20.

Time-on-ice: If you account for the fact that Paetsch filling in for Tallinder during his injury probably means a bit less time on average for the replacement, this is a very balanced group in this regard. Looking at the top six defensemen in playing time (excluding Paetsch), the lowest average was 19:09 (Spacek), while the highest was Campbell (21:52). The shifts-per-game are similarly distributed among the top-six – 22.6 at the low end, 26.3 at the top.

Responsibility: Here is a revealing set of numbers. Of the five players who registered at least 62 games, each led the defense in at least one noteworthy category:

Hits: Lydman
Blocked Shots: Lydman
Takeaways: Kalinin
Giveaways (fewest): Spacek
Goals: Kalinin
Assists: Campbell
Plus/Minus: Campbell
PIMS: Spacek
Time-on-ice: Campbell
Shifts: Numminen

This is a remarkably balanced squad. Without what appears to be a true #1 defenseman – they seem more to have a bunch of 2-3-4 types – such balance was necessary for the Sabres to realize the success they’ve achieved over the past two years.

Capitals (projected top six):

Brian Pothier
Tom Poti
Shaone Morrisonn
Steve Eminger
Milan Jurcina
Mike Green

First, this group is presented for argument only. It is certainly possible that the Caps will add a blueliner before or during training camp, and there is enough congestion in the group that guys like Josef Boumedienne, John Erskine, Jeff Schultz, or even a Karl Alzner could join the mix. That would only seem to bolster the argument that the Caps are a squad of equals in many respects, that they do not -- as offered in the benchmark on “top pairs” -- yet have a true top pair among their defensemen.

The returning defensemen in the above group (Pothier, Morrisonn, Eminger, Juricna, Green) was somewhat balanced, but that’s not necessarily a positive. For example:

-- The group had a total of 11 goals in 328 man-games (Jurcina had two others with Boston before being traded to Washington). None had more than three (Pothier, Morrisonn). Meanwhile, Buffalo’s top-five in games played had 24 goals in 355 man-games. None had more than seven (Kalinin).

-- The Washington group had 68 assists. The Buffalo group had 124 assists

-- Brian Pothier, who was among the league leaders in ice time early in the year, ended up with 23:59 for the season. After that, Morrisonn and Eminger are close (20:57, 18:56), then there are Jurcina and Green (16:02, 15:29). From top-to-bottom, the range in shifts is 9.2 per game with Pothier at the top (28.8), Green at the bottom (19.6). Buffalo had a range of only 3.7 shifts per game from top to bottom, barely a shift per period.

-- In terms of the spread of responsibility, it breaks down like this:

Hits: Morrisonn
Blocked Shots: Pothier
Takeaways: Morrisonn
Giveaways (fewest): Jurcina
Goals: Jurcina
Assists: Pothier
Plus/Minus: Morrisonn
PIMS: Morrisonn
Time-on-ice: Pothier
Shifts: Morrisonn

Jurcina’s full-year totals figure into the above, so given the split of his time between Boston and Washington, clearly Pothier and Morrisonn dominated the statistical summary. The difficulty is that Pothier and Morrisonn do not (yet) constitute the sort of top-pair that should dominate the numbers on a top-flight team. The Caps have the sort of talent and experience as they enter the season to be more of a balanced squad on the blue line. But to do that, some folks need to step up.

Steve Eminger certainly could take the next step. Although his full-year numbers were not especially noteworthy, he had a better second half than first half. That is encouraging.

Milan Jurcina made a good first impression on the club (note his new contract) and its fans, but this year the task at hand is to show that last year was not merely an impression.

Mike Green (or Jeff Schultz, for that matter) needs to cast off the Bear jersey for good at some point. If they can do so this year, either could be a contributor to a solid back line.

Tom Poti gets added to this mix. His reputation is uneven – while he has talent in the offensive zone and gives the Caps a power-play option they lacked last year, the complaints about him are that he is inconsistent in his own zone and does not use his size as effectively as he could.

No group has more potential on this club, and none is fraught with more uncertainty. The template for performance does not, it seems to me, include trying to emulate the Anaheim Ducks – the Caps just do not have the talent or experience for that. But Buffalo serves as a useful benchmark, the sort of club that does not have a single dominating defenseman or a “top pair” in the conventional sense of the term. The Caps’ strength is in depth, provided guys with potential and talent make the sort of progress to be hoped and expected of them.

Ted's Getting Serious

The Boss has been on a mini-roll the past few days, taking up the matter of whether the brain trust (for lack of a more suitable, less family-friendly term) at WTEM-980AM radio "get it" in their coverage of soccer and, by extension, hockey.

Today, he fires another broadside and adds a twist, suggesting the possibility of a federation of Caps-affiliated bloggers (who, in Ted's terminology, would form a "keiretsu").

There is already a hockey bloggers group on one of the major social networking sites, and now this.

Bloggers of the world, unite!

Scribbles...

We're Number Two!!!

ESPN conducted a poll of a panel of experts to determine the toughest sport of all. The panel concluded that boxing was the sport that demanded the most of its participants across ten measures from endurance to speed to durability.*

Ice hockey came in second. But hockey came in first in analytic aptitude, defined as "the ability to evaluate and react appropriately to strategic situations. Example: Joe Montana reading a defense; basketball point guard on a fast break." So the next time some snooty "hockey is a sport played by and for goons" swell comes by turning his nose up at those who play and follow the fastest team sport on earth, remind him . . .



. . . yeah, and we're the smartest, too.



* Thanks to Kolzig37 on The Official for pointing the way.

Benchmarks, Part IV -- Top Pair

It’s time to turn to the defense in the look at benchmarks, and that means a look at the “top pair.”

BENCHMARK: Ottawa -- Chris Phillips, Anton Volchenkov

Nope, it’s not Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer out of Anaheim, who finished 2^nd and 3^rd in the Norris Trophy voting, since Pronger spent a lot of time paired with Sean O’Donnell, and Niedermayer with Francois Beauchemin, especially late in the year. It’s not Sergei Zubov and Philippe Boucher, who finished 9^th/12^th in the Norris voting, for the same reason – they weren’t a pair much of the time. One might have made a case for Dion Phaneuf and Robyn Regehr in Calgary, but while they were paired early in the year, they were less so late in the year.

Phillips and Volchenkov, both of whom finished in the top-25 of the Norris voting, were actually a pair. That is a suitable benchmark, as long as we’re clear that we’re not talking about the top defensemen on a club (that would have brought us, once more, to Anaheim).

Phillips and Volchenkov stepped into a void in Ottawa when Wade Redden struggled (compared to his own history) and Andrej Meszaros had something of a sophomore slump (-15 for the year, by far the worst on the team). These two were a combined 9-36-45, which make them pretty much Tom Poti (6-38-44), statistically, on offense. But, they were a combined +73 (Poti was -1, to complete the comparison).

Phillips – a former first-overall draft pick (1996) – finally performed at a level that served to justify such a lofty pick. In eight seasons prior to 2006-2007, he’d never scored as many goals as he did last season (eight), earned more assists (18) or points (26), or finished with a higher plus-minus rating (36, fourth in the league).

Volchenkov also had a coming-out party of sorts. While he did not set a personal high in goals, he did in assists (18) and total points (19), while setting a personal high in plus-minus (+37, third in the league behind teammate Tom Preissing and Scott Niedermayer, each with +40). But what set Volchenkov apart was his prowess at blocking shots, which (given the premium on getting pucks to the net) seems to be the new “in” statistic among defensemen in the new NHL. Volchenkov led the NHL in blocked shots with 273. He repeated the feat in the playoffs with 80 (Phillips was second with 56…seems to have rubbed off).

These two complemented one another nicely. Phillips was, if not an “offensive” defenseman, a defenseman whose shot had to be respected and who played more defense than one might expect an “offensive” defenseman to play. Volchenkov was, if not the big hitter that his reputation suggested, played enough of a physical brand of defense and kept a lot of shots from making their way to goalie Ray Emery. One could almost see in the playoffs his shot-blocking ability start to get into the heads of opponents who would look for other angles and openings when Volchenkov was on the ice.

Neither is surely among the top-five defensemen in the NHL, but this isn’t a Chris Pronger-Scott Niedermayer sort of benchmark. It is two guys who played together and played together well, as well as just about any other pair one might think of from the 2006-2007 season.

Capitals (projected): who knows?

Sounds like a cop-out, doesn’t it? Well, it’s a reflection of the unsettled nature of the blue line and the fact that as yet, no defenseman has truly emerged as a top-pair sort. It isn’t even clear what the pairings might be. If one were to look for “Phillips” types, that might include: Brian Pothier, Steve Eminger, Tom Poti, Mike Green (Karl Alzner is not a part of this conversation unless he can worm his way into it in camp). If you’re looking for the “Volchenkov” types (and yes, the comparisons can be somewhat vague or only distantly related), that might include: Milan Jurcina, Shaone Morrisonn, John Erskine, Jeff Schultz.

Now…pair ‘em up (we’ll leave the left-versus-right side for another day).

Not so easy, is it? One (well, me, for the sake of argument) could offer pairs that might include: Jurcina-Poti, Eminger-Morrisonn, Pothier-Green (and note there is no “Volchenkov” type there on that third pair…the Caps do lack depth in physical defensemen). Is there a clear top pair there?

The fact is that the Capitals, either as a product of talent or the state of development, do not have a pair that compares to Phillips/Volchenkov as a top pairing. Of the five returning defensemen in that group for the Caps (excluding Poti), there is a total of 861 games of regular-season experience. Phillips and Volchenkov have 847 games, and they have 138 games of NHL playoff experience. The five returning Caps have 16, all with Brian Pothier.

It’s going to take time sorting things out on the Caps’ blue line. That isn’t a prescription for disaster; in fact, there is another comparison that fits better (and will be taken up later). But despite defense now being the deepest group on the club (in terms of players and prospects), there is no “top pair” here as the notion is traditionally held. Whether one will emerge is something that will be sorted out in time. The Caps’ defense still is truly a work in progress.

Benchmarks, Part III -- The "In Your Face" Line

In the third of this look at benchmarks we’re down to the nuts and bolts of a club – the checking line . . .

BENCHMARK: Anaheim – Rob Niedermayer, Samuel Pahlsson, Travis Moen

It is tempting here to go with the New Jersey Devils checking line as the benchmark, but the Ducks and Devils had an important common opponent late in the year – the Ottawa Senators in the playoffs and the “top line” benchmark. The Ottawa top line was 9-14-23, +18 in a five-game series win in the conference semi-final against New Jersey, but they managed only 5-3-8, -9 in a five-game series loss in the final to Anaheim. Anaheim gets the nod.

This trio was at the bottom of the team ranking in plus-minus for the regular season (occupying three of the bottom four slots), but that is not surprising. The New Jersey group of John Madden, Jay Pandolfo, and Sergei Brylin occupied a similar ranking with the Devils in the regular season, although this group was broken up for much of the later stages of the playoff series with the Senators.

The Anaheim trio was a combined -16 over 82 regular season games and an amazing combined +24 in 21 playoff games. To be a combined -1 per five games against other club’s top scoring lines, when your line isn’t necessarily a high scoring group (combined 24-39-63) is noteworthy. To be a +24 in 21 games against top-flight competition is borderline insane. Part of the bump in playoff performance is explained by an increase in this group’s scoring rate (34 points in 63 man-games (0.54/game), versus 63 points in 246 man-games (0.26/game)), but clearly this group became a true “shut-down” line.

The Capitals (projected) – Matt Pettinger, Boyd Gordon, Chris Clark

This has the potential of being a very dynamic line for the Caps, almost a hybrid checking/scoring line:

-- Chris Clark, who has set career bests in goal scoring in each of his two years with the Caps (20 in 2005-2006, 30 last season), has a knack for finding the back of the net without being a pure shooter – he finds a way.

-- Matt Pettinger, when he can avoid injury (he’s missed 29 games over the last two years), has quietly improved his own goal scoring production the past couple of years (20 in 2005-2006, 16 last year) without sacrificing a crash-and-bang style.

-- Boyd Gordon – “Muffin,” if you will – is not a shooter in the sense Ovechkin or Semin are, or even Clark for that matter, but has shown goal-scoring progress in his junior (10-12-22-33 in his four years at Red Deer) and minor-league (5-17-16 over three years, the last in only 58 games at Portland) development. That might be an untapped element of his game at this level.

This is a group that could combine for 50 goals…but that is not what their principal (or even most valuable) role could be. They could be a real throwback to the “Plumbers Line" (Gaetan Duchesne, Greg Adams, and Craig Laughlin) – a lunch pail group that is difficult to play against, yet can pot the occasional (or even more than occasional) goal. The Peerless thinks this group has it in them to be not only the best “in your face” line (we find “checking line” a bit limiting here) in the history of the franchise, but one of the best in the league this year. Clark is a smart, gritty (to the point of being almost “bionic”), deceptively talented player at both ends of the ice. And, he is a natural (as opposed to a forced or manufactured) leader. Gordon is intelligent, good at the little things, and extremely dependable. Pettinger is the orneriest member of the trio who has the capacity to get under an opponent’s skin in the defensive zone, then score at the other.

The season might start without this group in place. Clark could find himself playing on the right side of either of the top two lines (more likely the top line, given his recent history with Ovechkin). But, if things fall the right way (as in, the Caps find a scoring winger to play on one of those top two lines), this group could come to be what defines the Caps’ style this year – important for a club that seems to be struggling with a defining personality -- and could be the key to whether they fall just short of the playoffs or find themselves in the middle of the spring mix.

Can this group meet the benchmark set by Anaheim last year? Given its role, that is a tougher question to answer than in the other two benchmark cases. Anaheim’s group had the benefit of an excellent back line to complement it. The Caps are not likely to have that kind of support for this group. Clark, Pettinger, and Gordon could play very well and get lost in the noise of the inexperience that is still what defines the Caps’ blue line.

There is also the matter of when (or even if) this group plays as a unit. Much depends on what happens with the top two lines and where Chris Clark ends up. If Clark if playing on one of the top two lines, this line might see Brian Sutherby moved into the center position and Boyd Gordon moved over. It could create an opening for David Steckel. There are possibilities here, but the best “in your face” line option would appear to be the Pettinger-Gordon-Clark trio…and a mighty fine one it could be.

Benchmarks, Part II -- The Second Line

Next up in this look at benchmarks from the 2006-2007 season to which the Caps may be compared, the second line…

BENCHMARK: “The Kid Line” – Anaheim

The reason this group is selected as a benchmark is that the Caps’ second line could be a relatively inexperienced one (this assumes Chris Clark is not on one of the top two lines). The Anaheim group of last year -- Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Dustin Penner – having only 132 games of combined experience coming into the 2006-2007 season, certainly, as Nuke LaLoosh might have put it in ‘Bull Durham,” announced their presence with authority. All three played in all 82 regular season games and registered a combined 71-76-147, +27. The thing is, though, this production was achieved with less ice time than one might think. None of the three were among the Ducks’ top ten in regular season ice time per game. In fact, the three averaged only 13:50 per game, per man. Perhaps most stunning among the statistics in the context of their ice time is that the three combined for 15 game-winning/overtime goals – almost a third of Anaheim’s win total.

In the playoffs these three would see their ice time increase to an average of 17:25 per man, and the three would hold their own on the score sheet, going a combined 16-24-40, +10 in 21 games. They combined for six game-winning goals in Anaheim’s march to the Stanley Cup.

Physically, it was an imposing group. Averaging 6’3”, 219 pounds, they could physically dominate opponents. But for such a young group, and given the reputation of the Ducks as a group, it was a relatively disciplined group. They amassed only 179 combined penalty minutes during the regular season, among which were five major penalties (all for fighting…boys will be boys) and a misconduct.

One could argue whether this was the best second line in the NHL last year, but that’s not the point here. They constituted a very young, very green unit that rose to the occasion and played an integral role in the Ducks’ success last year. Without their level of play, Anaheim arguably doesn’t make the finals of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Given where the Caps stand in their development, they are the appropriate benchmark to assess the Caps’ prospects.

The Capitals (projected): Alexander Semin, Nicklas Backstrom, Eric Fehr

First off, we recognize that it is at least as likely that Chris Clark starts on the right side of this line to open the year. A veteran presence might be what Semin (who can be undisciplined) and Backstrom (a rookie) will need. But Fehr projects, at some point, to be a top-two line right winger. This could be that year, and for purposes of argument, we’ll put him here.

The three will bring a total of 154 games of experience into the 2007-2008 season, virtually all of them accumulated by Semin (129 games). Backstrom will bring a respectable 110 games of experience from the Swedish Elite League (Brynas), having delayed his entry into the NHL for a season to play an additional year in Sweden. But it isn’t the NHL in style, talent, or dimensions. Whatever his talents, a period of familiarizing himself with the nature of North American hockey will be necessary. In the worst-case scenario, he does not start the year as the second line center, which will create a substantial amount of havoc with the lineup. In the best-case scenario, he slides seamlessly into the position and permits Alexander Semin to take the next step toward being one of the most feared snipers in the league.

Semin has a world of talent, both in shooting and handling the puck, but he also seems to have a world of discipline to gain in certain aspects of his game. If he can make the next leap in the mental aspect of his game to match what is possible at the business end of his stick, he can tap deeper into his considerable potential. What should give Caps fans hope is that Semin scored 38 goals last year without the benefit of a true playmaking center on the roster. The trick is for the sniper to let others (well, Backstrom) find him in shooting space, rather than commandeering the puck for long stretches and taking his linemates out of the play.

Fehr is a wild card here. He was put on the shelf last year just as he was starting to look like he had an inkling of what was going on out on the ice. He’s had a steady improvement in his goal-scoring progression at each stop in his brief career (11-26-50-59 in juniors; 25 in 70 games, then 22 in 40 games – which projects to 39 in 70 games – at Hershey). Nothing is a given in the last big jump to the major league level, but there is little to suggest he will not be a goal scorer at the NHL level. Time and improved health (a back injury shelved him last year) are the keys with him.

As a group, they are not the imposing physical specimens that comprise the Anaheim group. Semin and Backstrom are “new-NHL” types in terms of Semin’s speed and offensive flair, and Backstrom’s described ability to see the ice and think the game well. Fehr can be the beneficiary of all that skill possessed by his linemates. He need only finish Backstrom’s passes or Semin’s loose change, and play some earnest defense to complete the line.

If this trio mines any depth of their potential, they will be an improvement on a club that had no reliable center or right wing on the second line last year. But it has a long way to go to approach the benchmark of Anaheim’s “Kid Line” from last year. Think of it though -- at this time last year, who would have thought Getzlaf, Penner, and Perry would be a line with a name attached to it?

I’ll call it “The SNICKER Line” – Semin/NICKlas Backstrom/ERic Fehr.

The Peerless just hopes it refers to their sweet play and not as the result of a punch line.

Benchmarks, Part I -- Top Line

We’re getting close to the start of training camp, when every team has dreams of carrying the Stanley Cup around the ice in June. It’s time to start looking at the year ahead, and The Peerless is going to start by looking at benchmarks. How do the Caps stand up in several areas compared to what are arguably the best of their type from last year?

We start with the “top line”

BENCHMARK: Ottawa: Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson

The Ottawa trio was a combined 113-116-279, +92 last year, constituting the top three scorers on the Senators’ squad. They were 28-38-66, +13 in 20 playoff games. The days of top lines with catchy names seem to have passed, but this trio is as close as any in the NHL in recalling the days of a dominating top line. They complement each other well, with Alfredsson the veteran (783 of the total 1,385 games of experience this trio has) with two-way talent, Spezza a gifted passer, and Heatley the franchise forward equally adept at passing, shooting, and playing in traffic. As one might expect, they lead the team’s forwards in ice time, but they were not overworked by any means. Alfredsson and Heatley averaged a bit more than 21 minutes a game, while Spezza logged just over 19 minutes. Ottawa’s depth provided the opportunity to keep this group fresh, but they were the group against which a club had to game plan. It is not a perfect group, to be sure – Spezza still can be maddeningly anonymous from time to time, Alfredsson (until last year) had a history of playoff problems, and Heatley has spells of trying to be too cute with his passing – but this line is the current standard for “top line” in the NHL, based on their performance last year.

The Capitals (projected): Alexander Ovechkin, Michael Nylander, Viktor Kozlov

This group did not play together last year, obviously. In fact, no two of them played together. Ovechkin and Kozlov have some history together in Russia, but this group appears likely to need some time to find their chemical balance. For purposes of comparison with the benchmark (and out of a sense of hopefulness), the three were a combined 97-129-226, +5 last year. But here’s the thing. That is a combined performance of 33-44-77, +2 per 82 games. The Caps’ top line last year of Ovechkin, Dainius Zubrus, and Chris Clark was a combined 96-102-198, -45. Per 82 games, that was 37-39-76, -17. The weak link here, if there is one offensively, is Kozlov (25-26-51 last year in 81 games). Then again, the Islanders had only one player who finished the year in the top-75 in scoring, too (Jason Blake; we’re not counting late-season addition Ryan Smyth).

But Kozlov is the wild card. Consistency has been an issue with him over his entire career, especially in the offensive end of the rink. He’s never been close to being a point-a-game player (70 points in 80 games for Florida in 1999-2000 is as close as he’s come), although he’s had that potential to do so. If he plays on the right side – and stays there (we’ll get to this in another benchmark – the second line), he might find the consistency that has eluded him. Having a pure finisher in Alexander Ovechkin will help him take advantage of his ability to see the ice and pass well; Nylander’s ability to create space with puck possession could give Kozlov shooting opportunities he’s not had often over his career.

Can this trio meet the benchmark set by the Ottawa top line? No. Only the most addled-with-optimism Caps fan could conceive of such a thing. Talent-wise, this group falls far short of the Ottawa trio, especially on the right side. But that isn’t a prediction of doom, either. This group has the potential to be among the most dangerous top lines in the NHL this season, although it wouldn’t seem that such will be the case in the first month or two. As they familiarize themselves with one another, one can conceive of a group that complements one another in a manner similar to (if not quite as prolifically) as the Ottawa group. Where this group could improve markedly on last year’s edition for the Caps is in that plus-minus figure. They should manage to hold on to the puck for longer periods than has been the case the past two years. Getting 250 points out of this line is not out of the question, if it stays healthy (knock on wood – combined they missed a total of four games last year). More than that, it should improve dramatically the -45 put up by the top line last year. Achieving both would go a long way to returning the Caps to the playoffs.

Hockey Equinox

There are 115 days from the last game of the 2007 Stanley Cup Finals to opening night of the 2007-2008 season.

Today is day 58 in that sojourn.

From here, it's all downhill to opening night.

Arbitration

30 players...19 settled before hearings, 10 still scheduled, one actually going through with it...

Brooks Laich.


edit: OK, two...the Stars' Antti Miettinen was awarded a one-year, $885,000 contract on Monday

The War Between the States

The Peerless was not able to attend the festivities honoring Dave Fay this afternoon, but “The Voice of God,” John Facenda weighs in . . .

On the frozen tundra of Kettler Capitals Iceplex the players, clad in blue and gray, harkened back to the armies of Virginia and Maryland in the War Between the States…hard men and women defending their honor and virtue. The skates slashing into the freshly surfaced ice were like those sabers unsheathed in preparation for battle so long ago. The pucks ricocheting off the glass were the sound of minie ball fired by elite marksmen.

Upon the drop of the puck, the Army of the Potomac established a territorial advantage that they would not soon relinquish. Waves of blue-clad northerners swept through the Virginia end of the ice like a cold wind from White Flint Mall. The Army of Northern Virginia fought gallantly, but yielded two goals before the game was ten minutes old. A rout was in the offing, but the rebels summoned the courage and audacity of their ancient brethren to halve the deficit as the period was waning.

But just as the Virginians were climbing back into the battle, the comeback was thwarted by a Maryland goal with one-tenth of a second remaining in the period. It would be a grim harbinger of what was to come in the second period as the Marylanders redoubled their efforts in an assault on the Virginians. The speed and swiftness of the Marylanders proved too much for the Virginians to cope with in that pivotal second period…the Union forged a wide margin to put the Southerners on the verge of a level of carnage not seen since…well, in a long, long time.

The second period ended with the Virginians licking their wounds, which was amazing in itself given all the equipment they were wearing. The Marylanders appeared confident to the point of giddiness, the giddiness of a schoolboy dreaming of a Sunday afternoon when he could take a turn on the fabled Kettler Capitals Iceplex ice sheet.

But a hockey game is three periods long, and the Virginians were of a mind to provide the Marylanders with a lesson that hard reality. In a counter attack that lacked only for the spine-chilling rebel yell, the Virginians stormed the Maryland zone, peppering the goal with puck after puck. It was a prodigious display of hockey aplomb, but for all their efforts, they could only fight the team in blue to a standoff in the final stanza. The Marylanders held on for a 16-8 win in a contest that was much, much closer than the final score indicated.

And so, on the frozen tundra of Kettler Capitals Iceplex, another chapter in the storied rivalry between the north and south was written in the struggle to possess Lord Brown's Boot. Skaters stooped by age will regale their grandchildren with the exploits of this day. Bull Run.…Antietam....Gettysburg….Kettler…battles in the civil war that will transcend history.

**********

Don't mistake any of the above for anything but respect for all involved. The game was played in honor of Dave Fay, who passed way earlier this month after a long battle with cancer. The proceeds were donated to "Hockey Fights Cancer," a joint initiative founded in December 1998 by the National Hockey League Players' Association and the National Hockey League to raise money and awareness for hockey's most important fight. It is for that reason that while all of the members of the Virginia and Maryland teams represented themselves well on the ice, the three stars have to go to Gavin Toner, Rob Keaton, and Ben Wilson, for their work in putcanceronice.org.