The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- The Player Breakdown

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Yes, friends, we’re back with another year or prognosticatory fun, and we start it with a look at where our boys in red are coming from and where they’ll end up. It is the last prognostication you’ll ever need, and no doubt want. So, let’s get to the players…

Nicklas Backstrom

Career Composite (82-game average): 0-0-0, even
Last year: 42 games, 12-28-40, -1 (Brynas IF, SEL)

If this was another era – one without helmets -- he’d be The Swedish Duguay. For now, he’s “not the Minnesota goalie.” Expectations aside, The Peerless thinks he’s not going to start fast. But it’s not where you start, it’s where you end up. And Backstrom is going to be turning heads by April.

Projected: 18-46-64, -2

Matt Bradley

Career composite: 7-12-19, -5
Last year: 57 games, 4-9-13, -5

Ponder this…Bradley was once the William Hanley Trophy winner in the OHL. For those of you unfamiliar with this esteemed prize, it is roughly equivalent to the Lady Byng. We are not making this up.

Projected: 3-10-13, even

Donald Brashear

Career composite: 8-11-19, -7
Last year: 77 games, 4-9-13, -1

As Dan Steinberg notes, Brashear builds houses. He even participates in building at home site, driving nails and cutting boards. We’re betting he doesn’t need a tool for either.

Projected: 3-7-10, +1

Chris Clark

Career composite: 16-15-31, -6
Last year: 74 games, 30-24-54, -10

If you were to order up a hard-nosed hockey player out of Central Casting, chances are you’d find Clark showing up for work, right down to the gaps in his dental architecture.

Projected: 23-24-47, +3

Eric Fehr

Career composite: 2-1-3, +3 (25 games)
Last year: 14 games, 2-1-3, +3

Fehr will start the year on injured reserve. That the Caps actually reported this fact should be brought to the attention of national security authorities.

Projected: upright by the end of the season

Tomas Fleischmann

Career composite: 4-6-10, -13 (43 games)
Last year: 29 games, 4-4-8, -6

One man’s misfortune is another’s opportunity. Fehr’s injury provided an opening for Fleischmann…he skated through it smartly. He was reported to have signed a contract days ago, and it was just reported as a fact on Tuesday. Maybe the contract was injured.

Projected: 14-38-52, even

Boyd Gordon

Career composite: 5-17-22, -2
Last year: 71 games, 7-22-29, +10

“Muffin” might not be the most hockeyesque of nicknames, but really…would you rather his baked-goods nickname be “turnover?”

Projected: 14-24-38, +8

Viktor Kozlov

Career composite: 19-30-49, -2
Last year: 81 games, 25-26-51, +12

Politics has “The Daily Kos”…the Caps would like to have “The Daily Koz,” as in a point a game. Matched with Alexander Ovechkin, that is a possibility.

Projected: 31-43-74, +3

Brooks Laich

Career composite: 8-14-22, -7
Last year: 73 games, 8-10-18, -2

“Brooks Laich” is an anagram for “Silk Coho Bra”. No word on if he has the thing for fish lingerie. In the meantime, he’ll have to make a name on the “CAB” Line (“crash-and-bang”).

Projected: 8-11-19, -2

Michael Nylander

Career composite: 19-43-62, +10
Last year: 79 games, 26-57-83, +12

He set career highs in goals, assists, points, and loop-de-loops last year. It says here that without having to wait for Jagr to give someone else a chance to play with the puck, he will set new career highs in all of those categories this year.

Projected: 28-62-90, +7

Alexander Ovechkin

Career composite: 49-50-99, -9
Last year: 82 games, 46-46-92, -19

Here is your Ovechkin number to ponder. In 163 career games, he scored a goal in 78 of them. That’s a 47.9 percent chance that on any given night he’s going to get at least one goal. Even money? For goal scoring? Without a top-end playmaker? Note to NHL…be afraid, be very afraid.

Projected: 58-52-110, +5

Matt Pettinger

Career composite: 15-12-27, -10
Last year: 64 games, 16-16-32, -13

“Princess Die, You Gravy Sucking Dog” has developed into a mini-goal scorer, and he was third on the team in shooting percentage. But he’s going to be on a checking line. He’s going to have to defend, too.

Projected: 22-20-42, even

Alexander Semin

Career composite: 31-30-61, -6
Last year: 77 games, 38-35-73, -7

His name is an anagram for “relaxed means in.” Words to live by. With a couple of Russians on the team and a couple of guys who can get him the puck, he should be plenty relaxed.

Projected: 41-36-77, even

David Steckel

Career composite: 0-0-0, -1 (12 games)
Last year: 5 games, 0-0-0, -2

Is it me, or does tsn.ca have Matt Bradley where Steckel’s photo should be? Where’s the love? Where’s the respect? Where are we going with this?

Projected: 2-3-5, -4

Brian Sutherby

Career composite: 8-11-19, -9
Last year: 7-10-17, -9

He was making nice progress there with a 14-goal season in 2005-2006. Then…seven last year. His name is an anagram for “babysit her urn.” Hey, forget the urn. Score more, and stop others from scoring more.

Projected: 9-16-25, -2

Steve Eminger

Career composite: 3-15-18, -17
Last year: 68 games, 1-16-17, -14

Ever since he injured a foot in January 2006, his performance has been in free-fall, although he didn’t play badly after New Years last year. He’ll start the year on injured-reserve. Rumor is that it’s the same injury Al Czervik suffered at Bushwood.

Projected: 3-14-17, -2

John Erskine

Career composite: 2-4-6, -21
Last year: 29 games, 1-6-7, -13

A plus-minus in his career composite (that’s “per-82 games”) of three touchdowns is not a comforting number. The Caps are likely to have to pick their spots in terms of what teams he dresses against.

Projected: 1-4-5, -6

Mike Green

Career composite: 3-11-14, -16
Last year: 70 games, 2-10-12, -10

And that two touchdowns and a safety aren’t a whole lot more comforting, but Green is on a different career arc. We expect that number to improve. Maybe he needs more mohawkishness.

Projected: 5-15-20, even

Milan Jurcina

Career composite: 7-9-16, +2
Last year: 70 games, 4-8-12, even

He might have been the Caps’ best defenseman at the end of last year. If he’s the best defenseman this year, that’s probably not a good thing. Let’s just say, “he’ll be better.”

Projected: 6-13-19, +4

Shaone Morrisonn

Career composite: 2-12-14, +8
Last year: 78 games, 3-10-13, +3

Besides being a real Wheel of Fortune payday (can I have an “N,” Pat?), he emerged as the closest thing to a stopper the Caps have had the last couple of years.

Projected: 4-12-16, +8

Brian Pothier

Career composite: 5-23-28, +6
Last Year: 72 games, 3-25-28, -11

Wasn’t exactly Ottawa, was it? Well, you won’t be asked to do everything on every shift on the blue line, either. And maybe folks will learn to pronounce your name right this year, too.

Projected: 5-24-29, +1

Tom Poti

Career composite: 8-27-35, +2
Last year: 78 games, 6-38-44, -1

After spending five-plus seasons in New York (for two different teams), he’s likely to be glad to be in a city that’s, well…sane. We’ll see what that does for his game.

Projected: 8-40-48, +2

Jeff Schultz

Career composite: 0-3-3, +5 (38 games)
Last year: 38 games, 0-3-3, +5

Sarge played pretty good hockey in a few dozen games. He gets grief for not being physical enough, but The Peerless doesn't see a column, "H" (for "hits") next to the "W" and "L" columns, either. If he keeps guys from scoring?...fine by me. I don't really care how.

Projected: 0-7-7, even

Brent Johnson

Career record: 92-80-21, 2.61, .902
Last year: 6-15-7, 3.61, .889

Last year was a step backward from a year that was decent year (despite the won-loss record of 9-12-1). The Caps need quality minutes from Johnson. That description of him at tsn.ca as “settling into backup role nicely” is perhaps not quite the kind of thing one wants to hear in the world of wins and losses.

Projected: 9-8-3, 2.88, .903

Olaf Kolzig

Career totals: 276-272-80, 2.69, .907
Last year: 22-24-6, 3.00, .910

Please…please… just a couple more years, and there might be a Cup at the end of it. This year, Kolzig if the key to the season. More than Ovechkin, more than Semin, more than Nylankozpoti…Kolzig.

Projected: 33-24-5, 2.52, .912

So...that's it. And, as always, if you use these for any cash wagers, seek professional help.

The Peerless' Preview -- Part V

This is the last of the installments of the Caps preview, so let's take a look at five more of the red-white-and-blue...

"Do you think I am easier to be played on than a pipe?"

-- Hamlet (III, ii)

Last year, Mike Green played 70 games as a green (naturally), 21-year old novice who got next to no penalty killing time and at times could be pushed around. He showed signs of having offensive skills from the blue line, but his spots were picked, and he looked at times like the kid he was.

Well, no more. Green has added some weight, not to mention experience gained in a deep playoff run in Hershey last spring, and he looks different – sturdier on his skates, grittier in the corners, and carrying himself with the confidence as if he’d aged three years instead of one.

Good thing, too. Much is expected of him, both this year and in the years to come. One would think it likely that his responsibilities will be expanded this year, even with Tom Poti taking up a lot of the slack on the offensive end of the blue line. But if he’s going to contribute more on offense, It has to be scoring at least one goal after October 25^th….he didn’t last year. And, he was -11 in 16 games after the all-star break.

This year, he shouldn’t be nearly as easy to play against.

"Thus the whirligig of time brings in his revenges"

-- Taming of the Shrew (V, i)

Last year, Boston traded Milan Jurcina to Washington on February 1^st for an eighth-round draft. As if the writing on the wall that “we don’t want you here” wasn’t clear enough, Jurcina’s $500,000 salary didn’t even clear much cap room for the Bruins, which was part of the exercise in moving players.

Boy, that worked, didn’t it? In 40 games in Boston, Jurcina was 2-1-3, -5, while stuck with only 10:42 in ice time a night. In Washington, he was 2-7-9, +5, in 30 games, getting more than 23 minutes a night on the ice. And, Jurcina’s cap hit on his new contract ($881,250) pales in comparison to the big defenseman the Bruins are stuck with have for the next four years – Zdeno Chara – who will encumber $7.5 million a year.

Jurcina is a big rig, and when he plasters a skater along the boards, it conjures the image of a bug on a windshield. And, he’s got a heavy shot that he can get to the net (42 shots in 30 games). He could open on the top pairing for a club that has a decent chance at the playoffs. It’s a far cry from being stuck on the bench in Boston with the belief that he wasn’t mobile enough for the NHL. Time brings its revenges.

"These words are razors to my wounded heart"

-- Titus Andronicus

Brian Pothier signed a four-year, $10 million contract as a free agent. The problem after that was living up to it as the Capitals’ big free agent signing last year. That was a stiff challenge, and one that wasn’t suited to Pothier’s game. Of course, Caps fans wanted him to hit, score, check, run the power play, cure the sick, and heal the lame. Maybe divine a winning Powerball number or two on the way. Not a reasonable job description.

He did what he could, playing perhaps 6-8 minutes a game more than would have been an appropriate amount (24 minutes a game, more than seven minutes more than he logged the previous year). If he plays 16-18 minutes on, say, the second pair, he is likely to be fresher and more effective than he was with more minutes and more responsibilities.

And, he’s likely to hear less about his perceived shortcomings from fans.

"The better part of valour is discretion"

-- Henry IV, Part I (V, iv)

Two defenseman…one stand 6’6”, weighs 213 pounds. The other is 6’6, 215 pounds. The first one is Chris Pronger, the second one is not. It’s Jeff Schultz. And that seems to be the problem for some fans. Schultz is a big guy, and big guys are supposed to hit…a lot. Schultz doesn’t. Maybe he should be more physical than he has displayed so far, but it’s not as if his style hasn’t worked for him. He has solid numbers from junior, through the AHL, and into his brief (38 game) stint with the Caps last year. Plus-minus can be done to death, but he is +60 in 344 games in the regular season in three leagues, including +3 for the Caps last year. Better things seem to happen when he’s on the ice. Maybe it’s coincidence; we’re betting it’s not.

Schultz seemed to have the ability in the games he played for Washington last year to have a knack for slowing the game down and keeping things simple. Not a bad trait in one as young as Schultz. He’s going to be most effective, we think, by being one of those guys who plays an anonymous game. If you don’t notice him, he’s probably doing a fine job. Well, as much as you don’t notice a guy who’s 6’6”.

"Wisely and slow; they stumble who run fast"

-- Romeo and Juliet (II, iii)

There was the possibility this year that there would be a rookie on the right side of the top line. But it seemed more likely that the right wing would be Eric Fehr, not Tomas Fleischmann. However, Fehr sustained an injury last March. It might have been his back, it might have been his hip, it might have been the fifth metacarpal bone (pinky). Disclosure of injuries in the NHL is treated as a state secret.

It is particularly unfortunate for Fehr, because it would have been interesting to see how he – a guy with a knack for finding the back of the net – would have meshed with Michael Nylander, Viktor Kozlov, or Nicklas Backstrom. Here is a youngster who scored 193 goals in 389 games in junior and the AHL. That’s pretty much a 40-goal scorer. While projecting that kind of output to the NHL is never a certainty, what made (and still makes) Fehr so intriguing is his progression. In junior, he went 11-26-50-59 in goal scoring over four years. In the AHL he scored 25 goals in 70 games, then 22 in only 40 games.

He hasn’t yet made that kind of a mark with the Caps (two goals in 25 games over two seasons), but in his cup-o’-coffee with the club showed a willingness to do other things – forecheck, work hard in his own end, that could make him a more complete forward than just a goal scoring savant.

For now, we wait. There is no rushing these things, especially for a youngster with his potential. The club will take this slow, and hopefully wisely.

The Peerless' Preview, Part IV

Now that we’re down to the 300…oops, the 23…we can look at the next installment of the preview…

"What's in a name? That which we call a rose by any other name would smell as sweet."

-- Romeo and Juliet (II, ii)

A backup goaltender is still a goaltender, and his is a difficult chore. If he gets 20 appearances over a season, that’s about three a month, less than one a week. And he’s got to come in and provide quality minutes. On good teams, he’s got to hold the fort and put up at least a .500 record. As we noted here, regarding backup goalies on playoff teams…

-- None of the ten goalies who played more than 20 games in this group (except for Marc Denis, who was demoted) had a below-.500 record.

-- None of the ten goalies who played more than 20 games (again, except Denis) had a goal-against of more than 3.00.

-- Only two of the ten goalies in this group who played more than 20 games had a save percentage below .900 (Denis and Johan Hedberg).

That is the benchmark that might apply to Brent Johnson this season. If he contributes at least a .500 record, a sub-3.00 GAA and a .900-plus save percentage, the Caps will have strong support toward snaring one of those eight playoff spots.

All games count, and being the “backup” goaltender is a distinction without a difference when it comes to the standings. When he’s in there, he’s got to provide quality performances. He’s had a good preseason, and he has considerable experience, so there is the legitimate potential that Johnson’s year would be sweet, regardless of what one calls him.


"The quality of mercy is not strain'd. It droppeth as the gentle rain from heaven upon the place beneath. It is twice blest: It blesseth him that gives and him that takes."

-- Merchant of Venice (IV, i)

Caps fans hope that the tender mercies applied by defenseman John Erskine droppeth like a torrent. If the Caps and their fans have a wish, it would be that they blesseth him that gives, and God help him that takes.

Erskine was a surprisingly effective defensemen up to a December 16 game against Philadelphia when he fractured a foot blocking a shot. Coincidentally, perhaps, that game represented the high-water mark of the year for the Caps. Erskine came back to play 11 more games, at which time he missed the last 14 games with a thumb injury. It wasn’t the most fulfilling year.

But Erskine’s presence on the roster in 2007-2008, even if he does not dress every night, provides something the Caps do not have elsewhere on the roster – a truly physical defenseman who can intimidate opponents. Although the Caps will likely see the shots against cut by virtue of the puck-possession strategy they have the talent to play, an ability to keep the crease free of the trash can help in that statistic, too, making life easier for Olaf Kolzig and Brent Johnson.

"How poor are they that have not patience!”

-- Othello (II, iii)

David Steckel has been nothing if not patient. Drafted at the end of the first round in 2001 by Los Angeles, he completed four years at Ohio State, then worked his way up from Reading of the ECHL to Manchester of the AHL. He became a free agent and hooked on with Washington in 2005. Spending most of his time in Hershey the next two seasons (with 11 games in DC mixed in), he became quite a force as a defensive specialist and then had his goal-scoring game come around with 30 last year.

In camp, he played himself onto a roster spot, the culmination of hard work and patience enough to learn his craft. He projects as a checking forward with faceoff skills and a good work ethic (amply demonstrated), but that 30-goal year in Hershey suggests maybe he can contribute the occasional offense as well. His frame doesn’t necessarily project well into the new NHL, where smaller, shiftier forwards can make like difficult for bigger men (Steckel is 6’5, 215), but his effort can go a long way to compensate for that. In a way, Steckel is a throwback to a time when “plumbers” meant more than guys with wrenches and butt-cracks (my apologies to plumbers…we couldn’t resist). Having been patient enough to work his way up the rungs of the organizational ladder, one would have to bet on Steckel….uh, sticking.

“The dragon wing of night o’erspreads the earth.”

-- Troilus and Cressida (V, viii)

Matt Bradley plays with a certain ferocity that fills the ice. He might not be the most gifted player in terms of skill, but Bradley can make his presence felt in other ways that can contribute to the Caps’ success. He is pretty much the skating embodiment of the term, “energy forward.” He will hit, check, agitate, or fight (if necessary) to make the most of his minutes. Playing with an edge is one of those rough corners that the NHL seems intent on sanding down. Well, Bradley is more sandpaper than something to be sanded.

The numbers and higher talent level put him in a numbers crunch, but his surviving the last roster decisions is a reflection of his survivability and tenacity. The Caps don’t have a lot of forwards who can bring that every night – at least so as to make opponents uncomfortable. He’s never had ten goals, has had only once had a 20-plus point season. But he was second on the team last year with 120 hits while getting less than 12 minutes a game (and surprisingly few PIMS – he was ninth on the club with 47 in 57 games).

Don’t skate with your head down…the dragon wing of night might be waiting.

“We know what we are, but know not what we may be.”

-- Hamlet (IV, v)

Brooks Laich has been all over the score sheet in terms of position. He’s been anywhere from the second to the fourth line, and he’s been at center and on the wing. So what is it? Resemblance aside (and really, it’s kind of creepy), Laich might be a “Chris Clark” in waiting. Not exactly heralded as a youngster (a 193^rd overall pick by Ottawa in 2001), he then had to suffer as the question – “who is Brooks Laich?” – to this Caps-ardy answer, “he was who the Caps got in return for all-time club leading goal scorer, Peter Bondra.” Yeah, the Caps also got a second round pick in that deal, but you get the point…”hey, no pressure, kid.”

Laich has put up workman-like 7-14-21 and 8-10-18 results in his two years in Washington, and that brings up another point. He’s still another guy who seems to have been here when Brooks Robinson was still in Baltimore playing with the Orioles. He has 151 games of NHL experience and is only 24 years old (last June). The Caps might not yet know what they have here – Chris Clark didn’t blossom into anything resembling a scorer until he was 29 (although Laich isn’t likely to find himself on a line with Alexander Ovechkin often). While Laich is likely to find himself with fourth, or perhaps some third line minutes, he might need some time for him – and the club – to find out what he may be.

An Unkind Cut

So…Ben Clymer was sent to Hershey. And…with Eric Fehr likely to go on injured reserve and Jakub Klepis likely to go, the Caps are down to 14 forwards. And eight defensemen. And two goalies. That’s 24. One person yet to be left standing in the game of musical roster spots.

Nine hours to go.

Why does The Peerless think, “trade?”

And why does The Peerless think Clymer really wasn’t 100 percent back from last year’s injuries? This is an unfortunate cut. Clymer came here as a Stanley Cup winner (with Tampa Bay in 2004) and did any job asked of him, including returning to the blue line where, despite being injured, sucked it up and applied himself to his job. He even found himself in the role of fashion model....

He’s the kind of pro you usually find on successful clubs, and if he can help Hershey, that will help the kids down there. If he is recalled, he seems likely to be lost to the club, the half-price provision on re-entry waivers making him something of a bargain.

Sometimes, there are men who come and go in the midst of what a team like the Caps are doing to rebuild. They end up being an “oh, yeah…I remember him” years down the road. But Clymer’s a real pro, and that kind of thing deserves respect. Whether it’s here, in Hershey, or another NHL stop, good luck to him.

Is something up?

If it was a fan, I'd say, "aw, just sayin'..." But when it's the big guy?

"...We have some depth now and we are ready for the season to start. I wouldn't rule out a last minute trade and the feeling in the air is one of growing confidence in the talent level of our team..."

The plot thickens....

Daring?...or Dopey?

OK, you be the judge on these five off-the-wall mini-prognostos…

1. Washington will score more goals than will the Pittsburgh Penguins this year.

Pittsburgh is the darling of those who would like to see a return to firewagon, balls-out offense in the NHL. Sidney Crosby!...Evgeni Malkin!...Petr Sykora (the good one)!...Jordan Staal!...Mark Recchi (he’s still here?)! There’s 200 goals, right there!! The Peerless doesn’t think that there are 200 goals there, but that’s only a part of the point. The Caps will be deep (certainly deeper than they have been in recent memory), and they’ll have a third line that can put up some points.

2. Washington will have more wins than the New Jersey Devils.

OK, part of that is that The Peerless thinks the Devils are in for a rude time of it this year, given the strength at the top of the Atlantic. However, the Caps will be a lot better than last year. Heck, improving their shootout record to .500 adds about half a dozen wins.

3. Washington will have four 30-goal scorers this year.

Last year, the Caps had three (Alexander Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, and Chris Clark). This year, Clark will not get 30, but Viktor Kozlov and Michael Nylander will. It will be the first 30-goal seasons for Kozlov and Nylander.

4. Boyd Gordon will be a Selke finalist.

Well, why not? He was a mighty-fine defensive forward last year, and if the Caps end up being the surprise team in the East, he’s likely to get more exposure. Besides, if not this year, then not too long from now.

5. Alexander Ovechkin will join Bengt Gustafsson and Peter Bondra as the only Capitals with five-goal games.

You think this is far fetched? Thus far, Ovechkin’s hallmark has been consistency – he has 98 goals in 161 career games, but only two hat tricks (both on the road). But that’s also been without the benefit of talented playmakers. That won’t be a problem this year. Some nights, the puck just can’t help but go in, and for Ovechkin one of those nights is coming.

So, you be the judge…”daring?”…or “dopey?”

Sittin' at the End of the Bar

Just sittin' here, pondering some numbers...

40. No playoff team last year had fewer than 40 wins. Last year, the Caps had 28. Are there 12 more wins in the tank? The Peerless will take the over.

50. That seems to be the over-under on Alexander Ovechkin’s projected goal total for the year. Some folks are hinting at 60, or even…well, let’s just stick with 50 for now. Based on his preseason effort (look, he had no goals in the preseason last year and finished with 46), The Peerless will take the over.

100. Take your pick – the standings points the Caps will earn or the combined goal total of Ovechkin and Alexander Semin. The Peerless will take the under on both.

2.40. That was Olaf Kolzig’s GAA the last time the Caps made the playoffs (wasn’t that during the Harding administration?). It is 0.60 goals fewer than his GAA last year. Among goalies playing at least half their team’s schedule last year, that number would have been ninth. The Peerless will take the over…but not by much.

30. Viktor Kozlov has never had more than 25 goals in a season. That was last year with the Islanders. He is in a nice spot between a pure scorer and a rookie who can do things with the puck. This is his big opportunity. The Peerless will take the over.

75. Nicklas Backstrom is coming to the NHL with the title of “best player not in the NHL.” Well, now he’s in the NHL. No Calder winner (at least those not Russian skaters) has scored as many as 75 points in 15 years, going back to Teemu Selanne in 1992-1993. The last two Calder winners (those Russian skaters – Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin) both eclipsed that total. Backstrom faces stiff competition for the Calder from the Defensemen Johnson (Erik and Jack) and some others. But, as for the 75 points, The Peerless will take the under.

25. In both of his seasons in Washington, Brent Johnson has appeared in at least 25 games (26 in 2005-2006, 30 last year). 25 games is not a bad thing, if it is done right (i.e., if Kolzig is rested, not injured). However, in those games, Johnson has to play better (and the club has to play better in front of him) than in the past two seasons. It says here that he will, but as for the 25 games, The Peerless thinks this is a push.

20. Chris Clark has set career highs for goals scored in each of the past two years (20 in 2005-2006, 30 last year). The conventional wisdom says that this was a product of playing on a line with Alexander Ovechkin. Well, that’s probably true, but Clark has shown an ability to find a way to find the back of the net. It isn’t always a SportsCenter highlight goal, but they all count, and that skill will serve him well if he mans the right side of the third line. The Peerless is going with the over.

150. Last year, the trio of Chris Clark, Matt Pettinger, and Boyd Gordon scored 115 points. Clark scored his on the top line. Pettinger scored his while missing 18 games to injury. Gordon scored his in what amounted to his first full season. Can this trio score 150 points as a unit? Probably not. The Peerless will take the under on this, but it’ll be closer than some folks might think.

And then there were...

...well, we don't know yet, do we. This morning, Corey Masisak quotes Caps defenseman Jeff Schultz in the Washington Times as saying that:

"They told me to get a residence here, so I did that. That's a good sign for now, but I've just got to get better and better as the days go."

So that leaves, for the defense:

Steve Eminger
John Erskine
Mike Green
Milan Jurcina
Shaone Morrisonn
Brian Pothier
Tom Poti
...and Schultz

I count eight defensemen in there. The Caps could go with that to start the year. Which begs the question, will the Caps carry 13 forwards? At the moment, the forwards include:

Nicklas Backstrom
Matt Bradley
Donald Brashear
Chris Clark
Ben Clymer
Tomas Fleischmann
Boyd Gordon
Jakub Klepis
Viktor Kozlov
Brooks Laich
Michael Nylander
Alexander Ovechkin
Matt Pettinger
Alexander Semin
David Steckel
Brian Sutherby

That's 16. Jakub Klepis would appear not to have a spot at this point, and Eric Fehr (not on the list above) is likely to start the year on injured reserve, leaving two potential victims of hockey's equivalent of The Turk. If you're looking for hints, perhaps this quote from Glen Hanlon, reported in this morning's Post entry by Tarik El-Bashir, provides it...

"It really hurts when you see people leave the organization who have given their heart and soul to this group."

The next 30 hours or so (23-man rosters must be set by 3:00 pm, Tuesday) will be pretty hard on guys like David Steckel, Brooks Laich, Matt Bradley, Ben Clymer, and Brian Sutherby.

Ottawa 2 - Washington 1

OK, we'll leave the "what went wrongs" by the side of the road. Fact is, not much did, except the final score. True, the Caps fell tonight to a Alfredsson-Heatly-Spezza-Volchenkov-Fisher-Emery-less Senators club, but the Caps did everything but win the game. If there was a time-of-possession clock, the Caps probably held a 40-20 minute edge. And, given that Alex Ovechkin hit two posts (one in the waning moments) and Tomas Fleischmann another, the offense did enough win most games. They outshot the visitors 35-15 and won 38 of 53 draws (that's not a misprint, although one hesitates to trust the NHL stat sheet at the moment). Boyd Gordon, David Steckel, and Michael Nylander were a combined 29 wins and seven losses on draws.

The defense was not bad, although it wasn't much tested. Olaf Kolzig had a gruesome half dozen minutes in the first period, giving up two very iffy goals, but otherwise had a solid effort.

The Caps took only one penalty (perhaps as much a product of hanging on to the puck for such long stretches....they never had much chance to take the usual NHL-brand of obstruction penalties).

Even the crowd wasn't bad (by Caps preseason standards). But this was the first chance for The Peerless to see the new mother ship...


...oops, scoreboard...



These aren't artist's renditions...I took these pics (hence, the blurry images in the latter couple). Shoot, in that first one I can see the nose hairs in the Senator logo.

It's nice...really. And, for that matter, so was the Caps' play, except for that pesky final result.

The Peerless' Preview, Part III

We’re back with the third installment of the preview, and The Peerless is very happy that Shakespeare was so wordy…

"Though this be madness, yet there is method in 't"

-- Hamlet (II, ii)

The Peerless believes that Donald Brashear is one of the practitioners of the hardest job in hockey, that of “enforcer.” That term – “enforcer” – carries with it certain connotations that non-fans of the sport relish in regurgitating about hockey…”thug,” “hooligan,” “neanderthal,” “unskilled.”

Uh, no.

While fighting is a part of the job description, “enforcement” can take the form of mere presence. It takes a while for any of this breed of hockey player to develop a reputation sufficient to discourage opponents from taking liberties, and unfortunately, that reputation is purchased at the price of fighting – perhaps often. But Brashear is far enough along in years and experience that he does not have to resort to fighting to enforce order. Whether he picks his spots more these days, his mere presence can have the effect of keeping things quiet. And it’s not as if he was a shrinking violet last year, either. His 14 fighting majors tied for eighth in the NHL.

But, this being the new NHL, guys have to be able to do more than just fight. Brashear’s 13 points might not be indicative of a Ross Trophy any time soon, but it was 13th on the club last year. He was one of only three players on the club playing at least half the schedule on the “plus” side of the ledger (+1). His 101 hits was fourth on the club, although considering he was last on the club (again, among those playing half the schedule) in time-on-ice (7:58/game), that is a remarkable statistic.

Turning 36 this season, Brashear cannot be expected to be at the top of the enforcer heap, as he might have been a half-dozen years ago. But he will be effective in his role, and he will contribute to the Caps’ fourth line as the kind of energy forward who can cause quite a ruckus in his role. Whatever madness there be in fighting, there is a method in what Brashear practices.


"Can one desire too much of a good thing?"

-- As You Like It (IV, i)

Is there any better situation to find oneself that that in which Viktor Kozlov finds himself? This is Kozlov’s fifth stop in the NHL (San Jose, Florida, New Jersey, and the Islanders being his previous stops), and if one label has followed him around, it is that of “underachiever.” He has never had more than 25 goals in a season (last year, with the Islanders), only once has had more than 35 assists in a season (53, with Florida in 1999-2000), and has only once had more than 55 points (70, in that same Florida season). One watches him skate so smoothly and effortlessly for a big man, and one wonders, “what’s the problem?”

Part of it is that he’s played on some clubs that have struggled, part of it is inconsistency. But now, it appears that he will skate on opening night centering Alexander Ovechkin and Tomas Fleischmann. Ovechkin is precisely the kind of scorer who can benefit from Kozlov’s vision and creativity (which he certainly possesses when his game is in focus), and Fleischmann has both the puck-handling skill and passing talent to find Kozlov in spots where Kozlov can score, himself.

Even though Kozlov has been less effective at center than he has on the wing (and wing might be where he ends up in the long term), he is in what might be the perfect situation for his mix of skills. If there is one concern, it is being on the ice consistently. Only four times in 12 seasons has he played more than 70 games. But when he is out there, he can be effective. In addition to his 51 points (5th on the Islanders last year), he was +12 (5th), and had four game-winning goals (2nd). One thing that can’t be overlooked, given the Caps’ struggles in this department, is that Kozlov is 13-for-25 in shootouts over the past two years. The Caps, as a team, are 23-for-94 over the last two years, including 5-for-40 last year.

For Kozlov, coming to Washington could be a good thing, and there is not too much of that in the minds of the Caps and their fans.


"To mourn a mischief that is past and gone is the next way to draw new mischief on"

-- Othello (I, iii).

Look at any team, any sport, and chance are you’ll find a player who is the vessel into which all the ills and ill feelings of fans are poured. For the Caps, that vessel appears to carry the name, “Steve Eminger.” Drafted 12th overall in 2002, much was expected of him. And he is another of those (like Brian Sutherby) who seem to have been here forever. The thing is, Eminger won’t be 24 until Hallowe’en, and he has only 192 games of experience. Lest one think we’re one of those folks who would give Eminger the eternal pass of “well, he’s only,” the apprenticeship is over. On this team, with expectations of challenging for a playoff spot, he has to show that he is a capable NHL defenseman.

The thing is, though, he is already. Eminger had his 2005-2006 season hijacked by an injury, and last year he got off to a poor start. But from New Years on last season, Eminger played some decent hockey (1-11-12, -3 in 33 games, while logging almost 20 minutes a game over that stretch). It is of little use to lament what some might think an unfulfilled potential for Eminger in his brief career. Better, perhaps, to compare him with another young defenseman who struggled early in his career, one who in his first 167 games over his first five seasons was 9-32-41, -20. Eminger, in his 192 games, is 6-35-41, -40. The defenseman who whom I’ve compared Eminger is Buffalo’s Brian Campbell, who would have to endure another season with a relatively poor plus-minus number (-14), before emerging last year as a critical element of the Sabres club.

Lingering over the past and picking over his performance, as some fans seem intent to do, is just a way of continuing to find fault with Eminger’s game. He is now at a point in his career where he can be (and should be) judged on his performance this year, not on his having to learn in what was a difficult situation. He has the skating talent, the size, and the well-roundedness to his game to rise to the next level. It will be important to the Caps’ success that he does so.


"Better three hours too soon than a minute too late"

-- Merry Wives of Windsor (II, ii)

Tom Poti has suffered a lot of “nots” over his career – “not physical enough”…”not good enough in his own end”…”not consistent enough”…and so on. It hasn’t been entirely unfair. But he has the size, the tools, and the experience to be a genuine first-pair defenseman for the Caps. And, he brings two things of paramount importance to the Caps – productivity on the power play and the ability to log a ton of minutes – that could ripple through the defense squad.

With regard to the first, Poti was 6-26-32 on the power play last year. By way of comparison, the returning defensemen for the Caps were a combined 2-21-23. And the Caps have more firepower on the power play (one would think) in Alexander Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, and Michael Nylander than he had on Long Island.

His ability to consume minutes should allow Brian Pothier, in particular, to settle into a better comfort level of 18-20 minutes a game, instead of the 24 minutes a game he logged last year. Poti has averaged 20-24 minutes a game in each of the last four seasons.

Although the Caps are likely to be a better team late than early, in The Peerless’ view, Poti is one of those players whose contributions can’t wait. He needs to hit the ice skating, as it were. This is a reasonable expectation – he and Pothier will be the only defensemen on this roster who are 30 years old (Poti being older by a little over a month). Better Poti start eating minutes and dishing on the power play early – too late, and it will be, well…too late.


“Boldness be my friend!”

-- Cymbeline (I, vi)

Since the lockout, Matt Pettinger has sort of been lost in the fog of the Alexes and the struggles surrounding the rest of the team. But he’s come out boldly in many phases of the game over the last two years. In 135 games since the lockout, Pettinger has 36 goals (that’s a 22-goals-per-82-games pace), he is 8-12-20 on the power play, he is 4-for-11 in shootouts, he has 140 hits, and he’s 8-3-11 in short-handed scoring. And, he has a rock-‘em, sock-‘em quality to his game that provides a lot of energy. He appears to have settled in as the left wing on the third line, and he can provide some offensive pop from that position that could make that line one that keeps opponents honest with their ability to score.

Pettinger has suffered some injury problems the past couple of years, missing a total of 29 games. It is a product of is style, one that also has made him something of a jack-of-all-trades these past two years. Finding a balance between boldness and discretion – when to go for it and when not to – might be a product of maturity (he won’t be 27 for another three weeks).


We’re not done, here. We’ll be back for a few more additions to the preview…only five days to the regular season.

Same old, same old

Anaheim and Los Angeles are about half-way through the first game of the year, in London. Kings are up, 1-0. And, there have been eight penalties called...

-- four holding

-- three hooking

-- one interference

Some things don't change...

The Peerless' Preview, Part II

We're back with another installment of the Caps preview, and again, Bill Shakespeare is our guide...


"Delays have dangerous ends"

-- King Henry the Sixth, Part I (I, iii)

Brian Sutherby seems to have been a Cap since they wore the star-spangled red-white-and-blue uniforms. It’s hard to imagine that he has barely 250 games of NHL experience (254, actually). But the former first rounder (2000), who had been spoken of in the past as potential captain material, is now finding himself as part of a much deeper roster, talent-wise, than has been the case earlier in his career. On the 2007-2008 squad, he is likely to start the year as a fourth-line forward, which is not the career trajectory foreseen for him.

Hampered by persistent injuries early in his career, he has arrived at the cruel crossroads of sports. He has to raise his performance level above the 8-11-19, -5, 82-game composite average he’s posted thus far in his short career. If not, the Caps are in a position to have others take his place in the lineup. There is much to like about his game. He plays with an edge, he is physical, and despite the plus-minus numbers (his being one of a number of minus-side numbers over the past few years) he gives evidence of being a defensively-responsible player.

He has not, however, shown anything more than glimpses of an offensive game. That will not be a requirement for his role as a third/fourth line player, but if he was truly a shut-down forward, he’d probably be showing up on the third line. For the moment, that group looks like Matt Pettinger, Boyd Gordon, and Chris Clark. Only Donald Brashear has a spot locked up on the fourth line. Sutherby is fighting with Matt Bradley, Ben Clymer, Jakub Klepis, Brooks Laich, and Dave Steckel for the other two slots or perhaps a healthy-scratch roster spot. Klepis, who does not have a contract, has to be thought of as a long-shot to make the roster at this point. If the Caps carry only 13 forwards, then four guys are essentially fighting for three spots (the two fourth line openings and the extra forward). Sutherby might not be the longest shot of that group (we’d have to think Matt Bradley is), but it is an uncomfortable situation for one to be in. Stepping up his game is at hand – a need borne out of the Caps improving the quality of their roster. Any delays are likely to have dangerous ends.


"Be not afraid of greatness: some are born great, some achieve greatness and some have greatness thrust upon them"

-- Twelfth Night (II, v)

Last year at this time, Tomas Fleischmann was stuck among a clot of forwards – with Eric Fehr, Chris Bourque, Jakub Klepis – given a chance to make the big roster. None, including Fleischmann, were up to the task and spent large portions of the year in Hershey. Fleischmann had 29 games in the show, but had a somewhat nondescript 4-4-8, -6 for his efforts. He was starting to look like trade bait, perhaps part of a package to bring in a more seasoned right wing or a defenseman.

Then something happened in September. He was stuck on a line with Alexander Ovechkin and Viktor Kozlov. He hardly embarrassed himself. In fact, having come to camp without a contract, he appears to have played himself onto the right side of one of the scoring lines. The talent has been there – he has dominated at the AHL level – but sometimes it appeared as though he lacked a certain confidence in his play on the ice. Having been thrust into a responsible role in the pre-season, he has made the most of his opportunity. No doubt there will be some growing pains along the way when the games are played for real, but Fleischmann is one of those players that gives rise to our prognostication that the Caps will be a much better team late in 2007-2008 than they will be early. His puck-handling ability and passing are already of NHL-caliber. Whether he can score with any consistency, and whether he can fulfill his defensive responsibilities are as yet unanswered questions. But, the tools are there…maybe he just needs not to be afraid of greatness.


"Men of few words are the best men"

-- King Henry V (III, ii)

If Boyd Gordon has uttered two dozen words for public consumption this month, it’d be news to us. That’s not a bad thing. Gordon, with quiet persistence, has risen through the ranks to become the apparent checking line center for opening night. His game is the thing. “Muffin” might not have the most fearsome shot in the league, but that’s not what his primary role is going to be, either. He led the club in plus-minus last year, led the club in draws taken (winning 52 percent of them), led all forwards in blocked shots. He does the little things the right way.

And it is not as if his game is entirely bereft of offense. He had 38 goals in 181 career AHL games and 77 goals in 260 games in junior. That he might become a 15-20 goal scorer in the mold of a Kelly Miller is not farfetched. It might not be this year, but there is no reason to expect he will not someday reach that level.

There is more an earnestness than a flash to Gordon’s game – a consistency of effort (for example, he had only 14 games on the minus side of the ledger in 71 games played last year) – and for his role that is entirely appropriate.


"The course of true love never did run smooth."

-- A Midsummer Night's Dream (I, i)

Nicklas Backstrom was the fourth pick overall in 2006 and anointed as the second coming of center and hall-of-famer-to-be Peter Forsberg before he ever set foot in North America. He is likely to start the season on the right wing of the “second” line. It’s not a bad place to start…honest. He will have a solid pro of a center in Michael Nylander to mentor him, and he’ll have a genuine sniper on the left side in Alexander Semin to feed pucks to. All things considered, it is probably where a youngster in his position is likely to flourish best.

It is all likely to be prelude to his becoming the top line center down the road (perhaps next year, more likely after that), which is to say that the course toward his ultimate destination might not be rocky, but neither will it be smooth. Talented though he is, he has much to learn in terms of the style and geometry of the North American game, and he has to do all this while learning the language and lifestyle off the ice in North America.

If anything, Backstrom has shown a knack for rising to the occasion. His performance in rookie camp was uneven, as if we was merely feeling his way along. In early training camp he looked better, but he seems to have been saving better performances for games in the pre-season. Even in a game in which he, by his own admission, did not play especially well, he netted the game winning goal. If that attribute carries over into the regular season, then whether he plays at center or on the wing will hardly matter. He’ll be playing in the spring.


"Men at some time are masters of their fate"

-- Julius Caesar (I, ii)

Edmonton…Washington…Edmonton…Washington. Sorry, Kevin…Washington. The Rangers might have signed the marquee centers of the free agent period – Scott Gomez and Chris Drury – but the Caps might have signed the best fit. With two top goal scorers in the Alexes and a center-in-waiting in Nicklas Backstrom, Michael Nylander – by temperament and style – might have been the best fit for a center. Nylander is adept at the puck possession game the Caps long to play, he is a fine set-up man (113 assists the past two years), and is a capable power play element (led the Rangers and finished tied for 16th – with Alexander Ovechkin – in league power play scoring). All are attributes the Caps lacked last year, especially from the center position.

Although the presence of Jaromir Jagr added to his offensive numbers (no, really), he might benefit from a cleaner division of responsibility with the Capitals. In New York, the puck goes through Jagr. Nylander, being a puck-possession sort himself, had to play a support role in that aspect. In Washington, he’s going to have a pure goal scorer on his left side (one of the Alexes), and he is likely to have a youngster (Backstrom) on the wing learning a role that Nylander can teach. Nylander will be the conductor.

Nylander hasn’t had less than 50 points in a full season (at least 65 games) in a decade, and much of that was as part of teams that struggled. He should be a constant on the Caps this year, a team of his choosing to join.


“In such business, action is eloquence”

-- Coriolanus (III, ii)

Night after night last year, chances are that the top forwards on opposing teams were going to be met by Shaone Morrisonn. That he would be a plus-three on a club with as many defensive holes as the Caps had last year (he led all Caps defensemen who played at least half of the schedule) is testimony to his ability to defend in his own end. It is even more remarkable in that Morrisonn has less than three full seasons of NHL experience (202 games, coming into this season), and he has never been a minus player in any of the four NHL seasons he’s played in (shoot, going back to juniors, he’s had only two minus years in eight seasons).

Morrisonn is not a big hitter. He is more the rangy sort who can deny space, use his stick, and position himself to frustrate opponents (critics of Jeff Schultz, take note). But he does have an edge to his game, having dropped the mitts in bouts with Colton Orr and Raffi Torres last year, and accumulating 106 PIMS, second on the team to Donald Brashear (fans of Jeff Schultz, take note).

It’s hard to get a clear picture on what the defensive pairings will be for the Caps this year. Any of the blueliners could be paired with any other. But no matter where Morrisonn is paired, his action in his own end has been, and promises to continue to be, eloquence.


We have some more to cover, and we’ll try to get to that in the coming week, as well as the league and Caps prognostications for the year. In the meantime…

"The elements be kind to thee, and make thy spirits all of comfort: fare thee well!"

-- Antony and Cleopatra (III, ii)

Thank You, Mike!

In his recap of last night's come-from-behind 7-5 Caps win over the Flyers, Mike Vogel wrote this...

Scoresh[ee]t – Media types around the league have been less than impressed (being kind here) with the NHL’s seemingly pointless decision to “fix” the official game scoresheets. Apparently, the new system is not without its glitches, either. For the second night in a row, we were told that computer issues prevented a full scoresheet with full stats at game’s end, or at the end of periods for that matter. If the league were to go back to the same scoresheet from the last two seasons with the same data, no one I know would complain about it.

Amen. We've been doing a slow burn here over the NHL's "improvement" to its scoresheets since their introduction in this preseason. They're awful. The scoresheets in the past were by no means perfect (for those who try to aggregate data, they could be a pain), but this new design is hard to follow and makes it nearly impossible to look at the results as one would look at data.

We're sure folks who pour over the results would like to see improvements to the scoresheets (a spreadsheet format would be nice), but this has the look of having been "designed" to death by folks who don't pay much attention to data.

Mike's right..."If the league were to go back to the same scoresheet from the last two seasons with the same data, no one I know would complain about it."

Law of Unintended Consequences

New uniforms...sleeker, more aerodynamic, offers a whole new revenue stream with updated designs and logos, repels moisture...

"Repels" moisture...OK, so where does all this moisture go? Well, as we see in this article by Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Dave Molinari, the moisture collects in the equipment -- most notably gloves and skates. As the Penguins' Mark Eaton pointed out...

"They do what they were designed to do, as far as repelling the water. But we've found, the last three or four days of wearing them, that, when the water's repelled, it has nowhere to go but into your skates and gloves. By the end of the second [period] or the start of the third, your skates are sloshing around and you have to change your gloves because they're [soaked]."

The league might look at this new performance system as a work in progress, but no amount of tweaking will end up looking like this...


Imagine this look on Zdeno Chara...

...yeesh.

And with that, The Peerless is going dark for a few days. Remember to visit all the bloggers, and while you're at it...floss.


Thanks to Direwolf on The Official for pointing the way to this issue.

Boyle to miss 3-6 weeks

Hockey is dangerous enough without having to worry about falling skates in locker rooms, but that is precisely what Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Dan Boyle had to deal with after last night's 2-1 loss to the Caps. As the St. Petersburg Times reports:

The skate, which apparently was not secured properly, fell about 2 feet and the blade sliced into Boyle's arm and through the abductor tendon.

Boyle ran to the training room, his arm bleeding. Four stitches closed the wound, though they will be removed today when he undergoes surgery.

It is worth noting that in addition to the effects on the Lightning in terms of Boyle's presence and production -- a significant ingredient to the Lightning's success -- Boyle is also in a contract year. He is an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season.

Division opponent he might be, but one wishes he gets back on the ice as soon as possible.

Mid-Season Form

The Peerless was on his way in to the Nation’s Capital this morning, and he dropped in on the Caps practice to see who was skating and who wasn’t. The boys were already on the ice going through their drills when we got there, and it certainly was entertaining.

It is heartening to see that Olaf Kolzig is in mid-season form in the "@#%&" department. Having been abused by Viktor Kozlov a couple of times on shots, Mt. Kolzig erupted in a display of expletive-laden commentary on his performance that made The Peerless really wish he had an audio recorder. It wasn’t Vesuvian, but it made for fine theater, nonetheless. Trouble is, Kozlov continued to send pucks flying past Kolzig, although Kolzig started to get the upper hand as the practice was winding down.

Kolzig also had some kind words – offered often – for Brooks Laich, who had a devil of a time trying to beat the goalie. After one frustrated effort on which Laich (who was paired with Kozlov on a 2-on-2 drill) failed to score, Kolzig shouted after him as he skated away that it might be helpful to “watch and learn,” perhaps a reference to what Kozlov was doing.

Even Daren Machesney got into the act with his own @$#! as a puck slithered through his pads. It wasn't of the sort of decibel level one would associate with Kolzig, but it was a fine effort, nonetheless. We gave it a "6" on the Kolzig "@#%$-o-meter."

Boyd Gordon had an especially nifty score that drew ooh’s and aah’s from the fans in the stands. And he had more luck than most in the tip drill getting pucks on net.

And, for the Lightning...

According to he Lightning Insider, this is the lineup the Caps will face tonight:

Forward lines:

Vaclav Prospal-Vincent Lecavalier-Martin St. Louis
Jan Hlavac-Andreas Karlsson-Jason Ward
Mathieu Darche-Ryan Craig-Kyle Wanvig
Andre Roy-Craig MacDonald-Nick Tarnasky


Defensive pairs:

Paul Ranger-Dan Boyle
Matt Smaby-Brad Lukowich
Dan Jancesvki-Doug Janik


Goalies:

Johan Holmqvist
Karri Ramo

Two more...

Sasha Pokulok and Tyler Sloan were sent to Hershey yesterday, and there are two points to be made here.

First, we think this reflects progress for Pokulok, who has had a rough go of it, physically, since he was drafted by the club. His development has been stunted to a large degree, and one hopes that a full and healthy season in Hershey gets the youngster back on track. Although he's a first round pick, he's an underdog of sorts worth rooting for.

The second point is this...the Caps now have ten defensemen left in camp. One might conclude that nine of them have a legitimate shot at a roster spot (we would think that Jame Pollock will, at some point, be heading up to Hershey). It's likely that in this game of musical roster spots, one or two will find themselves on the outside, looking in. While there are options, in terms of who among this group could be sent to Hershey (Jeff Schultz, for example), there is quite a crowd looking to make the Caps' decisions difficult. This situation would have been hard to imagine just a couple of years ago.

Among the "locks" for spots, we see:

Tom Poti
Brian Pothier
Shaone Morrisonn
Milan Jurcina

The other five are a mix of those who could be sent down or moved:

John Erskine
Mike Green
Jeff Schultz
Steve Eminger
Josef Boumedienne

In any case, one or two of this quintet -- depending on how many defensemen the Caps choose to carry -- will not be with the Caps on opening night.

Fair is fair...

In this morning's Washington Times, Tim Lemke notes* that Caps players have taken to the phone banks to contact potential season ticket plan buyers. The easy comparison to make here is -- yeah, again -- to the stunt the Penguins pulled a short time back in having players deliver tickets to their fans. Nice, as far as it goes, but you've already got the fan as a customer. It isn't an especially aggressive strategy to build the base, unless one is thinking that future ticket buyers might get a visit from Sidney Crosby.

Pittsburgh is in the enviable position, though, of having a lot of buzz generated by their performance last year and having the Last Best Hope for the NHL wearing the black and Vegas gold. The Caps are, as any fan of the club knows, a team that has had a history of struggling at the gate.

Hockey might be the most fan-friendly sport there is when it comes to fan-player contact. Players seem to be especially willing to make themselves accessible to fans of the sport. To have players take the time to make a couple of dozen or so phone calls is a credit to them in terms of both their attitudes toward fans and the seriousness that they bring to making the franchise successful.

It is also a nice, as well as savvy, touch on the part of the Caps front office. Whatever one thinks of the pricing strategy the club might pursue (and we've been there, so we won't rehash that), this is a club that desperately needs to put fans in the stands. As Donald Brashear put it in Masisak's piece:

"We really need the fans' support. It's a big part of our success, and at times when we get down we could use a little pep, a little more from the stands."

So fair is fair...nice work, guys.



* Not so nice work by The Peerless, having failed to give Mr. Lemke credit for the article in the original version of this post. Our apologies to Tim and Corey for our foul up.

The look...of stats

OK, the Caps lost. Boo-freakin’-hoo. You don’t like to see losing become a habit -- we've had enough of that the last several years -- but it isn’t anything to get all in a knot about either. But now that we’re playing games, let’s bring my pal Dougie in to talk about something really important…

Dougie, what do you think about the new statistics displays on NHL.com

“They suck.”

Isn’t that a bit harsh?

“Yeah, yeah....but have you seen them? Take a look at the box score. 5v5 5v4 5v3 DN/SH AN/PP…it looks like the ticker from hell.”

But they are providing a much richer set of data.

“That they are, and we appreciate that. But visually, my eyes hurt. It looks like someone barfed up a grayscale Rubik’s Cube.”

What do you mean?

“Look, ‘box scores’ should be simple. They’re not a place to cram every slice of data you can think of.”

You mean like baseball box scores?

“Well, yeah…look at the box score on MLB.com”…nice and clean, except for that jibberish at the bottom that they could set side-to-side like they do everything else.”

So, what would you do to improve it?

“Well, let’s start right at the top…that scoring summary. Replace it with the period summary..first period, second period, third period, overtime, shootout, goals, shots. Just like the inning display in the baseball box score. Then that scoring summary?...they could break it apart into the team columns, side-by-side…”

But you’d lose that scoring sequence you get with the NHL display…

“No, you wouldn’t…here’s how it might look…go ahead, click on it…”




Well, it’s something to think about. What about the rest of the box score and the “Super Stats?”

“Hey, don’t you have prognostications to work on…”

OK, OK…we’ll talk about that another time…

Sittin' at the end of the bar...

One of the things The Peerless enjoys with a certain bemusement is commentary on perhaps the single most discussed topic on NHL team message boards…

Lines.

Phhht…who cares? Once upon a time, the NHL landscape was dotted with lines with catchy names and inspiring characters…the Dogs of War Line…The French Connection…the Kraut Line…the GAG Line…and perhaps our favorite, the Production Line, to name a few.

How does this concern the Caps? Well, there is much attention being given to the fact that Michael Nylander – nominally a “top line” center – is spending a lot of time paired with Alexander Semin, who is generally thought of as the “second line” left wing for the club. “Seems like a waste of a ‘top line’ center’s salary” is the implicit argument.

The Peerless thinks this line, so to speak, of argument is archaic. One of the things that makes hockey unique to team sports is substitution in time. “Changing on the fly” – making substitutions while play continues – is a phrase that can only be associated with this sport, and it provides a dynamic way for teams to adjust their attack. It means that playing time accumulates among players and lines in different ways from game to game.

This is a long way around the barn to get to this point. Think not about “first and second lines;” think about “minutes and pairs.” Michael Nylander might be paired with Alexander Semin; Viktor Kozlov might be paired with Alexander Ovechkin. Whether you think of one or the other as a pairing on the Capitals’ “top line,” you can bet that all four will be hauling at least 18-20 minutes a game in ice time. It makes no difference whether one or the other pair constitutes two-thirds of a “top line.” What matters is that the pairs work well together and present matchup problems for opponents that can be exploited. Those situations, as well as “who’s hot” and “who’s not,” will contribute to the ice time either of those pairs gets on any given night, not some rigid structure of “first line” or “second line,” despite what might have been suggested in someone’s idea of “benchmarks.”

Which brings us to the third member of the forward “lines.” The situation for the Caps on the right side what are traditionally thought of as the “scoring” lines is fluid. There are a host of players who could settle in either of those two spots – Chris Clark, Nicklas Backstrom, Tomas Fleischmann, for example. Perhaps someone will emerge to grab each of the spots on the scoring lines, but then again, it might be that this position is not manned on a permanent or semi-permanent basis by anyone, that who plays here will be a product of, of course, having demonstrated the ability to handle the responsibility, but also who might be a better match-up against opponents. Tonight’s Ovechkin-Kozlov-Fleischmann line might be tomorrow’s Ovechkin-Kozlov-Clark line…or maybe Ovechkin-Kozlov-Backstrom…or maybe…

Camp Hanlon

A few posts back, we noted the tough love exhibited by Tampa Bay coach John Tortorella in the Lightning training camp. Well, Corey Masisak of the Washington Times, in In the Room, quotes Caps coach Glen Hanlon, referring to the extra skating done by the losers of a team-wide shootout...

"We put a real punishment on losing. I thought about it all summer. You can't create 15,000 fans in here so that pressure isn't on. There isn't a game on the line, so the only thing we can really do is not have it be a token skate. ... That's the only pressure we can have. It is the only realistic way. We are motivating by fear."

The Peerless doesn't think that is a throw-away line. Since the lockout, the Caps were about building. Now, it's about winning. That is a reflection of the expectations and the stakes involved. But if coach gets too caught up in the new mantra, "motivate by fear," well...just trot out this blast from the past...




We kid because we love.

Oh, to be in Buffalo, now that New Years' Day is here

I imagine hockey fans of all stripes (or, given the new RbK Edge uniforms, "piping") will be saying this come January 1, 2008, as the Buffalo Sabres and Pittsburgh Penguins face off in an outdoor affair at Ralph Wilson Stadium -- the game now being official. What are some of the joys of outdoor hockey on New Years' Day on the shores of Lake Erie?

-- shoveling out your seat

-- your backside spot welded to the frost on the seat when you do sit down

-- 75,000 clouds of breath in rhythm

-- instead of applause that goes, "clap-clap-clap," you get the "thud-thud-thud" of mittens

-- beersicles

-- players wearing lampblack under their eyes (Ryan Miller did it when he participated in the outdoor game between Michigan and Michigan State in East Lansing in October 2001)

-- probability of precipitation ... 100% (hey, it's Buffalo in January...even if the sun's out, it snows)

-- sticks shattering like crystal

-- Marc-Andre Fleury in a toque

-- Lindy Ruff whining about something (ok, he does that indoors, too)

-- Michel Therrien wearing only his suit (he's a tough guy)

And The Peerless guarantees, the weather will not look like this:

No surprises

Tarik El-Bashir notes in the Capitals Insider that the Caps have made some cuts...

Nineteen players were assigned to Hershey, where the Bears' training camp opens on Thursday.

Here's the list: Dean Arsene, Scott Barney, Jay Beagle, Sean Collins, Andrew Gordon, Marty Guerin, Jamie Hunt, Andrew Joudrey, Quintin Laing, Sami Lepisto, Tommy Maxwell, Chris McAllister, Grant McNeill, Patrick McNeill, Jason Morgan, Travis Morin, Steve Pinizzotto, Grant Potulny, Steve Werner. The Caps also released Dan Kronick.

He's right -- there aren't any surprises there. Which leaves, by my reckoning...

Forwards:

Alex Ovechkin
Alexander Semin
Viktor Kozlov
Michael Nylander
Chris Clark
Brian Sutherby
Matt Pettinger
Boyd Gordon
Matt Bradley
Ben Clymer
Chris Bourque
Tomas Fleischmann
Jakub Klepis
Joe Motzko
Dave Steckel
Kyle Wilson
Nicklas Backstrom
Eric Fehr
Donald Brashear
Brooks Laich

Defensemen:

Shaone Morrisonn
Tom Poti
Milan Jurcina
Steve Eminger
Mike Green
Jeff Schultz
John Erskine
Brian Pothier
Josef Boumedienne
Sasha Pokulok
Jame Pollock
Tyler Sloan

Goaltenders:

Olaf Kolzig
Brent Johnson
Frederic Cassivi
Daren Machesney
Michal Neuvirth

It's early, and we might not be entirely accurate here...corrections are welcome.

If you look at that list, it seems pretty to get down to 13 forwards and 6 defensemen, plus the goalies. But getting there leaves the matter of where Tomas Fleischmann and Jakub Klepis go (they're not in my 13 forwards; Ben Clymer -- who is the subject of Tarik's feature this morning in the Post, is in that group), and where Mike Green and Jeff Schultz end up (they're not in my six defensemen). That might end up being the longest running drama of camp.

Interesting that there are fewer players here this morning, but it feels more crowded.

Shots Matter

James Mirtle presented a fine and finely detailed look at some goaltending history in this post. Being the sort who has a certain fascination with the behavior of numbers, The Peerless offered a comment, which we share with you below:

Thanks for that excellent look at goaltending trends. One of the things that has occurred to me, anecdotally, is that shots matter from a defensive point of view. At this level of play, there just isn't that much difference in save percentage among goaltenders in the NHL (last year, the top 20 goalies in save percentage with at least 50 games ranged from .902 to .922).

But looking at one goaltender to whom I pay attention -- Olaf Kolzig of the Capitals -- the effects of shots is telling. Kolzig faced 1,771 shots last year (33.4 shots per 60 minutes of play). For his trouble, he had a goals against average of 3.00, 20th in the league among goalies with at least 50 games, while posting a .910 save percentage. In order to shave that GAA to, say, 10th (2.58, Rick DiPietro) facing the same number of shots, Kolzig would have had register a save percentage of .923. Had he done so, he'd have led all goaltenders who played 50 or more games in that statistic.

Here is another way to look at it. Marty Turco and Kolzig had the same save percentage in the regular seson (.910). But while Kolzig had his facing 33.4 shots per 60 minutes, Turco had his facing 24.9 shots per 60 minutes. The arithmetic results in a 0.77 differential in their respective GAA (more than 25 percent better in Turco's case). Which team's goalie -- and team -- was more successful?

That's a long way round to the point that "shots" seem the most underrated statistic in the sport. Which brings to mind another factor in this -- what has been the trend in blocked shots and missed shots? And, have goals scored as a share of "shots taken" (as opposed to "shots on goal") changed over time?

We're mindful of a rather standard response to the "shots" argument, that there are "shots" and there are "shots." By this we mean that goaltenders might face a lot of easily stoppable shots that inflate a shots on goal statistic. In any given game, that is certainly possible, but data being what they are over a series or a population, we suspect that over the course of a regular season that sort of thing evens out -- that the 6-8 easy shots goaltender A might face today are evened out by a similar number goaltender B faces next week or goaltender C faces next month.

I think it useful to pay particular attention to the comparison of Kolzig and Turco, above, and apply the analysis we used in the first example. For Kolzig to have achieved Turco's GAA (2.23) while facing the number of shots he did last year, he would have had to post a save percentage of .933. That would have led all goaltenders, according to the NHL's statistics. And Turco finished fourth in GAA.

Wayne Gretzky famously said that you miss 100 percent of the shots you don't take. It's merely another way of saying, "shots matter."