The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Your First Round Prognostications: Caps vs. Rangers

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Caps will face the New York Rangers in the first round of the 2008-2009 playoffs that starts this week. On paper, the Caps should dispose of the Rangers in short order. Now it’s time to look at why they will…or won’t.

As much as any series in the first round, this one’s theme will be the irresistible force meeting the immovable object. The Capitals are a top-third ranked team in the offensive statistics and have the fire power to spot a team a lead and come back to win as often as not. On the other hand, the Rangers are a top-third ranked team in the defensive statistics and boast the league’s top penalty killing group. The raw numbers look like this…


If one digs a little deeper into this goop, you can start to see things each team wants to take advantage of, and things they'd like to avoid...

What you find here is that the Caps are a team that starts fast and finishes that way, illustrated by their league's second best first and third period goal scoring. That third period scoring might be something to watch here, given that the chinks in the Rangers' defensive armor seem to appear later in games.

There is also the matter of the Caps being almost a third-of-a-goal a game better than the Rangers at five-on-five. This appears to be a reflection of the Rangers' overall lack of offensive depth and the Caps ability -- even willingness -- to trade haymakers with teams. The Caps have more weapons for that sort of a contest. How the Rangers deal with that -- or how the officials do (more on that in a bit) -- will be a significant factor in this series.

Now, if you read the collective hockey punditry, you will find a common theme, that being that you can throw these numbers out, that with the addition of Sean Avery, Nik Antropov, and Derek Morris – none of whom have played against the Caps this year while wearing a Ranger jersey – plus the fact that John Tortorella (not Tom Renney) coaches this team now, the Rangers are a different team. In a sense, they’d better be, since the Caps won seven of a possible eight standings points in the head to head competition, and the Rangers won no games in the “hockey” portion of the series (winning their only point by virtue of coming out on top in the Gimmick in the last meeting of the teams, on February 11th).

But are the Rangers a different team after all those changes? The dividing line we might look at to answer that question is the trading deadline, since it is at that point that the Rangers had all the new ingredients – coach and players – in place to effect this supposed phoenix-like transformation. Here is how the Rangers break down, before and after…

Clearly, the Rangers performed better after the additions, not so much on special teams, where their efficiency didn’t change appreciably, but in 5-on-5 play. They scored more and allowed fewer goals. But we have a suspicion that in an odd way, that will mean that this series will turn on special teams. Bear with us.

Even with the improvements, the Rangers are not an especially fearsome team at 5-on-5 play. So, for the Rangers, the object might be to “shorten” the game – play fewer minutes at 5-on-5, let the superior penalty killing unit frustrate the opponent, and/or score on the power play by virtue of getting more chances.

With that in mind, here is the single number you might keep in mind when watching this series…

Five.

Look at that second table above, the one that includes a reference to the teams' record when receiving five or more power plays/PK situations a game. When the Rangers received five or more power plays this year, they compiled a record of 24-8-1. Even when having to kill off five or more penalties, they had a .500-plus record (13-10-2). And when the Rangers were in a tightly-called game all around – five or more power plays for both teams – they were 9-3-0 (although three wins came via the Gimmick). If this series turns into a march to the penalty box, it will not be good news for the Caps, especially given that the Caps averaged just over five minor penalties taken per game for the season.

A tightly called series for both teams is a high risk proposition for the Rangers, given the effectiveness displayed by the Caps on the power play this year – at 25.2 percent, they were second in the league to Detroit. That means that for all the attention being paid to who is in the Capitals’ net, the Rangers’ only chance to win this series, it would seem, is for Henrik Lundqvist to keep the Caps at bay until the Rangers can generate just enough opportunities to scratch out a goal or two.

And again, for all the pixels and ink being devoted to how inconsistent Capitals’ goalie Jose Theodore is, there is a curious history about Lundqvist in the playoffs. Namely, he hasn’t been that good, at least not as good as one might expect a three-time Vezina finalist to be. In 23 career playoff appearances, Lundqvist is 11-12, 2.57, .907, all numbers being significantly inferior to his career regular season record. Seven times in those 23 career playoff appearances he has allowed four or more goals, including three times in his last eight outings in last year’s playoffs.

If there is something in the Rangers’ season record that could cause concern among Caps fans, it is in their ability to frustrate offensively gifted teams. Of the top five goal-scoring teams in the NHL this season, the Rangers have a record of 9-6-2. They have a .500-or-better record (based on points earned) against four of those teams. The one team they do not have a .500 record against – the Caps (1-2-1).

How the Rangers will win

Stan Fischler’s faith in the Rangers’ offense delivering aside, the Rangers have to keep games from getting past six goals combined for the teams. If games get to seven, eight, nine goals, chances are the Rangers aren’t going to be on the long end of them. They don’t have enough weapons to consistently win high-scoring games.

The Rangers’ realm is the one-goal game. No team still playing in the East has played in more one-goal games than have the Rangers (43). Only New Jersey among playoff teams in the East has more one-goal wins in the regular season. On the other hand, no team in the East played fewer one-goal games in the regular season than the Caps (34), although the Caps’ winning percentage is virtually identical to that of the Rangers (.559 to .558). The Rangers need to win games 2-1 and 3-2. They won’t win games, 5-4 or 6-5.

You’d like to think Scott Gomez and Chris Drury are going to show up for the Rangers. Their respective playoff pedigrees suggest that they will. But that isn’t likely to be enough. The Rangers need Nikolai Zherdev and Nik Antropov to show up, too. The problem is, Antropov has a grand total of five points in 28 career playoff games, and Zherdev is making his first playoff appearance.

The wild card – literally – is Sean Avery. There is perhaps no player in the NHL who has such an outsized reputation as a game changer relative to his actual production. But that’s the problem, too. That reputation, which centers mostly on his antics directed toward opponents, disguises a resume that suggests a productive player. He had 22 points in 41 games this year, 12 in 18 games for the Rangers. That’s not a total that will impress folks who watch the Caps treat the scoreboard like a pinball machine, but 0.67 points/game for the Blueshirts is better than Markus Naslund or Brandon Dubinsky put up this year, too. Avery’s ability to contribute within the rules can’t be overlooked.

How the Caps will win

What the Caps are going to want to do is make this “Showtime” in the NHL sense. The Rangers had the worst winning percentage of any of the remaining 16 teams in games decided by three or more goals (8-14, .364). This is the fault line upon which this series will be decided – the ability of the Caps to impose a fast-break style on the Rangers, pounding them with their superior offensive depth, or the Rangers making this a war of attrition, shortening the game by virtue of their suffocating penalty kill and goaltending.

The constants for the Caps are Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom. Ovechkin has had consecutive games without a point only twice this year, and none since early January. Backstrom endured a four-game streak without a point in late January, but since then has registered at least one point in 27 of 33 games. Then there is Mike Green, who in the last two years has gone 5-3-8, +6 in seven games against the Rangers.

The wild cards are Alexander Semin and Brooks Laich. While Semin has matured as a player, he is still given to bouts of inconsistency. But in his last 22 games to close the regular season, he was 13-16-29 with three game-winning goals. If that Alexander Semin shows up – the one of sublime talent who, when he is on, is the most gifted offensive talent on this team – this will be a short series. For Brooks Laich, it is not likely to be so much a matter of talent as will. When Laich is rooting around the crease for a puck like a pig after a truffle, he is the perfect complement to the other talent on this team. In his last 16 games, Laich was 8-9-17. Maybe for the duration, that should be our nickname for him – “Truffles.”

Like most playoff series, we think this will turn on goaltending. The hockey “market,” in a sense, has already factored in the alleged inconsistency of Jose Theodore and has tagged the Caps as the most vulnerable favorite in the first round. Our suspicions are about Lundqvist, who has had more problems in playoff settings than one might expect.

The Rangers won’t score enough to keep them alive into a second round, and Lundqvist doesn’t have four sub-three goal games in him.

Caps in five

"Guys are going to start losing their penalty killing jobs if they don't start getting with the program.."

That's what Bruce Boudreau had to say about the penalty killing for the Caps after the team gave up three in a 3-2 loss to the Ottawa Senators last night. Small wonder - that's eight straight games giving up at least one power play goal.

32 for 44 over that span -- 72.7 percent.

16 Caps have been on the ice for at least one power play goal against over the last eight games.

Four Caps have been on the ice for at least five of the 12 -- Karl Alzner (eight), David Steckel (seven), Brooks Laich (five), and Jeff Schultz (five). Steckel (healthy scratch against the Islanders) and Schultz (two games missed with an injured finger) have missed time in this stretch. Schultz, though, has been on the ice for all of his five power play goals against in the last four games -- on ice for five of the last six power play goals scored against the Caps.

All four of the players mentioned have been on the ice for at least one 5-on-3 power play goal scored against; Laich has been on for two of them.

In terms of goals allowed-per-minutes played on the penalty kill, Steckel has had the worst number, on ice for one power play goal for every 4:10. Schultz isn't far behind (4:18), nor is Alzner (4:35). Laich has been on for a power play goal against approximately every six minutes of penalty killing ice time.

Is it their fault? Penalty killing is as much a team effort as anything in hockey, but the fact remains that bad things have happened -- often -- when these four have been on the ice in that role. But we're not sure which is worse, the high numbers these four have or the fact that 16 different skaters have been on the ice for at least one power play goal against in the last eight games.

The coach is right...""If the [penalty kill] doesn't start getting better, [they're] not going nowhere."

2008-2009 Previews: Brooks Laich

Well, we’re half way through the forwards, which brings us to…


Brooks Laich

Last Year: 21-16-37, -3, 8 PPG

Career average (per-82 games): 13-14-27, -5

Fearless’ Take: Chris Clark played in one game after November 28th last season. One might have asked who, if anyone, could step into the “unexpected” scorer role that Clark jumped into during the 2005-2006 season. Well, Brooks Laich went 17-14-31 after November 28th, a span of 58 games. That works out to a 24-20-44. He was 12-8-20 in his last 22 games. And, just as Clark was “Mr. Opportunity” in his first two years with the Caps, Laich slid into that role comfortably last year, with 10 special teams goals (eight power play, two shorthanded) and four game-winners. He finished third in goals, third in power play goals, led the club in shorthanded goals, was tied for second in game-winners, had the best shooting percentage on the team, led all forwards in blocked shots, and did all of this in barely 14 minutes of ice time per night (ninth among Cap forwards). He might have been the most efficient player on the club whose name didn’t start with “O.”

Cheerless’ Take: Chris Simon scored 29 goals in 1999-2000 and never had more than 14 in a season again. You could argue it was due, in part, to shoulder injuries (or becoming player often times exhibiting galactically poor judgment), or it might have been just one flukish year. Now, Brooks Laich is probably a fundamentally more sound player than Simon ever hoped of being, but one year doesn’t turn Randy Robitaille into Luc Robitaille, either. Then there is the matter of where he plays. He might play with Alexander Semin and Sergei Fedorov, playing a similar role to that which Chris Clark might play with Michael Nylander and Tomas Fleischmann, for example. Is he going to get chances, or is he going to play “fetch the puck?”

The Peerless’ Take: Cheerless, who cares if Laich plays “fetch the puck” (or if Clark does, for that matter)? If he plays that role well, Semin and Fedorov – should that be his line assignment – are certainly capable of knowing what to do with the puck when they get it, and the team benefits in any case. There is also the matter of special teams. Laich had eight power play goals while averaging 1:18 in power play time a game. He might not get a lot of time in that role, but he’s showed himself to have a knack (ok, for one season, anyway) for making the most of that opportunity What Laich got was an opportunity. The production he enjoyed last year was, frankly, that envisioned for Matt Pettinger. But Pettinger – who scored 36 goals combined in the two seasons preceding last year – simply couldn’t find the spark to start the year and got shoved to the back of the dog house when he didn’t improve under Bruce Boudreau. Laich jumped into the void and made the most of it. The fact is, Laich could be one of those guys who scored prolifically in junior (63 goals in 107 games in his last two seasons in Canadian junior) who struggled a bit with scoring at the pro level until: a) he got consistent playing time, and b) the light finally went on in terms of how to take advantage of what skills he has to put himself in a position to score (one hopes that a similar moment comes for someone like Boyd Gordon this year).

Projected: 16-17-33, even

A TWO-point Night: Caps 5 - Hurricanes 2

Well…as pre-season games go, tonight’s 5-2 Capitals win over the Carolina Hurricanes was entertaining. But let’s not delude ourselves that this was either: a) indicative of the relative strengths of these two teams, or b) that the Caps played well. But, it was a chance to look at some youngsters, a chance to put a few vets in roles they don’t normally play, and a chance to reminisce about the sort of crowd that would frequent (for lack of a better verb) games last December. Some thoughts on the game…

- Official attendance: 13,266. Uh-huh…a lot of season ticket holders didn’t brave the weather. There might have been 8,000 actual bodies.

- We could sit here and type that Michal Neuvirth had a difficult game (which would be true in many respects), but we’ll give him credit. He gave up two goals on the Hurricanes’ first seven shots, and he was fighting the puck for most of the 40 minutes he played. But he dug his heels in after the second goal and kept the Hurricanes from scoring again. Yeah, if Rod Brind’Amour or Eric Staal were out there, and this was January? Neuvirth would have been lit up like the Las Vegas strip. But this night, against these opponents, he stuck it out. We’ll give him marks for that.

- Chris Bourque is light years better – if this night was any indication – than he was in previous stints here. In visits past, he’d skate around like a water bug, full of energy, but with no discernible purpose. Tonight, he was a lot more in control of his game, finding the open spaces to get shots off. And for someone of such short stature, he took a hit well with his low center of gravity. Only Alex Ovechkin and Mike Green had more power play time.

- Tim Conboy…three minor penalties for roughing. If it wasn’t for his being utterly obnoxious, you’d never have known he dressed.

- OK, so you’re Daniel Manzato. You’re a young goalie coming into the game mid-way through the second period. You’ve played only one game above the ECHL level in your career. And the first shot you face from an NHL player is a penalty shot…and it’s Alex Ovechkin doing the shooting. Wes Craven can’t gin up a plot as horrifying. And the results were just as predictable.

- Speaking of Ovechkin, having notched the penalty shot goal and an assist on the first goal of two by Michael Nylander, he was trying to set up anyone wearing a red jersey, passing on a number of open shots. Failing to get anyone to finish his passes, one could almost hear him say, “enough of this crap (or whatever the Russian equivalent is),” and just fired the puck in himself on a set play from a faceoff.

- Was it me, or did Chris Clark look like he played with a smile on his face all night (except when he was staring over at Conboy with a look that said, “what the #@$& is your PROBLEM, pal?”)

- I don’t think you could get Daren Machesney to settle down if you bolted him to the ice. He was a bundle of perpetual motion out there. Given that he faced only three shots in 20 minutes, he probably needed to do something to keep himself occupied.

- In the NHL scoresheet, it’s “Joshua” Godfrey, in case you were wondering.

- It is entirely possible that the Hurricanes started only one forward who will start on opening night (Patrick Eaves).

- Carolina had only three shots on goal in the last 23:30 of the game.

- Alexander Semin had several puck-handling displays that might be SportsCenter-worthy…none of them resulted in a goal; few of them resulted in a chance. He looked like he was holding onto the puck too much and too long.

- We sat there for most of the game fretting…”Mike Green could easily get into bad habits with the sort of game he had tonight.”

- But speaking of Green, he logged 5:49 of penalty-killing time tonight. That would be about 20 percent of all the time he got short-handed last year. Alex Ovechkin had 4:48 on the penalty kill…he had a total of 13:09 last year. Enjoy it now boys…

- In the first intermission, with the Caps trailing 2-0, the Caps ran a text-message ticker on the big screen. One message said, “it’s not over until Brooks Laich says it’s over”…guess that person knew what they were talking about.

…Brooks sez, it’s over.

Fedorov Signs...Things Get Complicated

TSN.ca is reporting that the Capitals have signed forward Sergei Fedorov to a one year contract for $4.0 million.

That is about $1.5 million more than we thought Fedorov would (could) be signed for. While it lends some depth and stability to the center position, it suggests that the Caps are not done with personnel matters. Based on the numbers at nhlnumbers.com, the salary cap burden now looks like this for next season (updated for Brooks Laich and Eric Fehr signings, and correction for buyouts)):

The math no longer works for keeping the team together, unless Brian Pothier’s injuries prevent him from returning to the club. This could mean that an RFA is not going to be re-signed (we’re thinking that the player is Brooks Laich...ok, maybe not).

The roster look something like this, with Morrisonn awaiting arbitration:

Even with signings, things seem to get more complicated...

UPDATE: Fehr and Gordon signings included.

Mid-Season Form

The Peerless was on his way in to the Nation’s Capital this morning, and he dropped in on the Caps practice to see who was skating and who wasn’t. The boys were already on the ice going through their drills when we got there, and it certainly was entertaining.

It is heartening to see that Olaf Kolzig is in mid-season form in the "@#%&" department. Having been abused by Viktor Kozlov a couple of times on shots, Mt. Kolzig erupted in a display of expletive-laden commentary on his performance that made The Peerless really wish he had an audio recorder. It wasn’t Vesuvian, but it made for fine theater, nonetheless. Trouble is, Kozlov continued to send pucks flying past Kolzig, although Kolzig started to get the upper hand as the practice was winding down.

Kolzig also had some kind words – offered often – for Brooks Laich, who had a devil of a time trying to beat the goalie. After one frustrated effort on which Laich (who was paired with Kozlov on a 2-on-2 drill) failed to score, Kolzig shouted after him as he skated away that it might be helpful to “watch and learn,” perhaps a reference to what Kozlov was doing.

Even Daren Machesney got into the act with his own @$#! as a puck slithered through his pads. It wasn't of the sort of decibel level one would associate with Kolzig, but it was a fine effort, nonetheless. We gave it a "6" on the Kolzig "@#%$-o-meter."

Boyd Gordon had an especially nifty score that drew ooh’s and aah’s from the fans in the stands. And he had more luck than most in the tip drill getting pucks on net.

After-Math -- Caps vs. Panthers

TWO points, tonight and a

Yes, Caps fans, for the first time since February 15, 2004, Olaf Kolzig recorded a shutout – a 1-0 blanking of the Florida Panthers. It was his first shutout in Washington since a similarly authored 1-0 win over Edmonton on January 11, 2004.

The whitewashing of the Panthers was a fine effort from Kolzig, but it wasn’t as if he didn’t have help, either. The ice surface played more like bad asphalt with the puck hopping to and fro, and neither club able to establish any sort of offensive rhythm. But when he had to be, Kolzig was a dark wall casting a shadow across the defensive zone (that "Acme School of Good Writin’" correspondence course is coming in handy). The Caps put the game in his hands in the third period, content to chip the puck out of danger rather than mount any offense (four shots for the period).

The game was played largely in the perimeter of the rink; neither club was able to pose much of a threat from prime scoring zones. The lone exception game just after the five-minute mark of the second period, when Brooks Laich hustled after the puck along the right wing boards in the Florida end. Laich backhanded a pass onto the tape of Alex Ovechkin’s stick at the edge of the right wing circle, and the left wing snapped the puck over goalie Craig Anderson’s shoulder. It would be enough.

In addition to Kolzig’s solid performance, Ovechkin might have played his most animated game in more than a month. He was a dervish on the ice. In addition to the five shots and the goal he recorded, he rang another shot off the post behind Anderson, he positively undressed Jay Bouwmeester on a dash down the left side, and he almost had one of the highlight goals of the year with a no-look backhand that sailed just wide from the high slot. If not for the positively awful ice surface, Ovechkin might have registered his first home hat trick.

But there were unsung heroes, too . . .

- Brooks Laich didn’t look out of place manning the pivot on the first line for much of the game between Ovechkin and Alexander Semin. Laich didn’t register a shot on goal, but he spent a lot of time digging for loose pucks and playing solid at both ends.

- Alexander Semin needs to be yelled at more. Perhaps with more frequency than the rest of the season, combined, Semin was hustling back on defense to cover a late arriving forward or to deny a passing lane to a forward camped out in the middle.

- Milan Jurcina left dents all over the Verizon Center boards, the imprints matching the body images of a lot of Panthers.

- Boyd Gordon owned the faceoff circle, winning 12 of 16 draws as the Caps won 29 of 49 overall.

Frankly, on this night it would be difficult to find much to fault in any Cap’s play. Matt Pettinger and Tomas Flesichmann each were victimized on more than one occasion by the difficult ice. Jeff Schultz played another in what has been a surprising season of steady games.

There was even a rollicking good crowd on hand tonight. It was one of those nights when a Caps fan might ask, in exasperated fashion, “why can’t every night be like this?”

update: Well, maybe not like this. The shift chart shows a yawning blank spot where Alexander Semin's time should be in the third period. Not having launched any pucks goalward, one can only surmise he sustained an injury, although what that might be has not yet been released.

After-Math . . . Caps vs. Lightning

It’s a two point day!!

What was that about Alexes? The Peerless meant “Flashes” . . . Boyd “Flash” Gordon had a goal and an assist, Tomas “Flash” Fleischmann had two goals and two assists in a 7-1 romp over the Tampa Bay Lighting this afternoon. It was a flash of what might yet be to come as far as the Caps are concerned. Not that the Alexes were shutout, not both of them anyway. Alexander Semin had a natural hat trick in the second period (on his only three shots taken in the frame) to give him 37 goals for the year.

Key for the Caps was, as it was for the Toronto game Friday night, getting off early. The Caps opened the scoring at 5:31 of the first on a goal by Fleischmann. But there is something to be said for keeping teams from getting off early, and that is where the return of Olaf Kolzig has been important. Kolzig did not have to make any especially difficult saves in the first period, but he made them all. Seeing as how the Caps came into the game 29^th in the league in winning percentage when giving up the first goal (.146), steady goaltending early is key. Kolzig, for those of you scoring at home, has stopped 100 of 104 shots since returning from his injury. Given his steadfastness in goal and the club’s play around him, it seems to validate this argument with respect to the value of his return.

While the attention focuses on Semin’s hat trick and Fleicshmann’s four-point game, the Caps had ten players register points in all – none of them named “Ovechkin.” Similar to the point we made after the Toronto game, if one would tell The Peerless that the Caps would score 12 goals in consecutive games, and Alex Ovechkin would have only one assist in the deluge, The Peerless would be looking for his copy of the Yellow Pages and finding a therapist for you.

On the other side of the ice, Tampa looked anything like a team trying to protect a four-point lead on the ninth-place club or one that could have closed to within two-points of the Southeast Division lead with a win. They looked rather ordinary, in fact. It wasn’t just goaltending, which was bad enough (The Peerless sat in his seat wondering in the second period if coach John Tortorella wanted to summon up Daren Puppa or Pat Jablonski from Lightning teams of the distant past – they couldn’t have fared worse than Johan Holmqvist, then Marc Denis, then Holmqvist again). Vincent Lecavalier spent his 60 minutes looking as if he was afraid he’d get his makeup smeared if he dared skate between the circles in the offensive zone. He was content to play along the boards for the duration of the contest. That he was -2 and won only 42 percent of his draws was hardly surprising. That he had one shot on goal in the last 55-plus minutes of the game was, that one being long after the matter had been settled.

The Peerless asked this question after the last time these clubs met, and it still is a matter that strikes your prognosticator as odd . . . how does the team captain skate a total of 5:45 for the game? That’s what Tim Taylor had for Tampa (he managed a -2 in his brief turns on the ice).

But let’s give some credit to the line of Gordon, Brooks Laich, and Chris Clark, too. They did a superb job at neutralizing the Lecavalier-Vaclav Prospal-Martin St. Louis line (10 total shots, no points). The Peerless does wonder, however…was Clark injured in the third period? He shows as having no shifts taken in the last eight minutes of the game. On top of Brian Sutherby’s compartment injury to his hand Friday night (he’s out for 7-10 days), that would be one more injury in a series that has crippled this club since the parade started among the defensemen in December.

You look at this club the last three games . . . six different players have the 15 goals scored (including two hat tricks), 16 different players have registered the total of 39 points. Alex Ovechkin has one point. When the “light over the head going on” moment is taking place, chances are you don’t see it. But maybe (said The Peerless, hopefully) that moment is at hand. Alexander Semin is 3-4-7 in his last three. Tomas Fleischmann is 3-2-5. Chris Clark is 3-1-4. Boyd Gordon is 2-2-4. The Caps will spend a lot of time on SportsCenter (ok, not ESPN . . . one of the Canadian outlets, perhaps) with Ovechkin scoring highlight goals – and they won’t win much. It will be what contributions the club gets from up and down the roster that will matter in the end. The last three games, fans have gotten a glimpse of just what that means.

After-Math -- Caps vs. Maple Leafs

Woo-hoo!!!.... TWO points, tonight!!!

And that’s how it’s done. If one were to tell The Peerless, “Alex Ovechkin will not register a point, and the Caps will score five goals, anyway,” The Peerless would have asked, “who the $#@& are you, Eklund?”

As it was, that’s just what happened in the Caps’ 5-1 win against the Toronto Maple Leafs. And, lordy, did the goals come from odd places. Alexandre Giroux scored his first NHL goal 1:46 in after Steve Eminger sent the puck to the end boards, where it popped straight back, hopping past the flailing stick of Toronto goalie, Andrew Raycroft (who had one of the more brutal games a goaltender can have..he couldn’t handle a puck cleanly tonight if you, well…handed it to him). Giroux celebrated in appropriate fashion. After all, it’s not as if goal scoring is foreign to him (he has 38 goals for Hershey this year), but it was his first goal of the NHL variety. Congratulations, kid.

The Caps had a familiar face notch the second goal – Alexander Semin stuffed in his own rebound after a nifty takeaway. After that . . . Boyd Gordon, Kris Beech, and Tomas Fleischmann. Along with Giroux, those four have a grand total of 26 career NHL goals, counting tonight. Semin has 34 this year. It is the kind of contribution from the “other guys” (meaning ones whose first names don’t rhyme with “Malexander” . . . ok, there’s Giroux, but you get my point) that has been lacking all year.

Some folks might wonder . . . why did Brooks Laich get a second star in this game? Well, look at the shift chart.

Boyd Gordon took a lot of draws against Mats Sundin, but the pesky Gordon gives away four inches and 30 pounds. It was Laich that served as the big body pounding on the big Leaf, and in the end took more draws than Gordon. Sundin shook loose for an assist on the Leafs’ lone goal, but other than that was largely neutralized. Laich also led the Caps in ice time on the penalty kill. There is more to getting a star than scoring goals.

There were a few odd numbers tonight . . .

- “zero”…the number of hits Darcy Tucker registered. What, he’s mellowing in his older years?

- “four”…that’s how many Caps registered fewer than 10 minutes ice time.

- “two”…Neither Brian Sutherby nor Mike Green took a shift in the third period.

- 15:34…the combined ice time of Toronto centers Jeff O’Neill and Yanic Perreault.

- “16”…that’s how many different skaters made their way to the penalty box tonight. What, were they serving beer over there?

- “two” (again)…the number of Toronto skaters finishing the night even . . . 16 were in the minus category (testimony to the ability of the Caps to spread the joy around tonight; only three Caps were even, the rest were in the plus category).

- “.971”…the save percentage for Olaf Kolzig tonight (34 saves on 35 shots). Amazing what a steadying influence a veteran goalie with a pedigree can have.

All in all, it was a quite satisfying game. It might be just one game in the slow march to the end of the year, but the guys looked like they were having fun. Hope they played the music really loud in the locker room.

After-math -- Caps vs. Islanders

No points tonight, Caps fans.





George Armstrong Custer . . . Davy Crockett . . . Spartacus . . . Glen Hanlon.

Leaders of battles against overwhelming odds, doomed to fail because of opponents’ vast advantages in skill and numbers.

Last night, the Washington Capitals hit their low point of the season in a 6-2 pasting at the hands, sticks, and bodies of the New York Islanders, typified by having to play Tomas Fleischmann as a center for much of the last half of the contest. This club has nothing more to give than effort. They are running out of bodies. They dressed seven defensemen and 11 forwards for this one (losing one forward along the way). Couple that with nothing to play for in terms of standings, and it makes for a pretty grim way to be finishing up the season.

The game itself was a clear reflection of where these clubs are at the moment. One is fighting for a playoff spot; the other is fighting not to be embarrassed. The Peerless has no quarrel with the Caps effort last night. It might not have been quite to the level or with quite the focus of the game against Tampa Bay on Thursday, but effort wasn’t the reason the Caps lost.

The Caps lost because they got behind the eight ball early – part their own doing (a product of inexperience) and some a product of obstruction calls than might not have qualified as tackles in a touch football game. Let’s not go down that road, though. The Caps were brutal on the penalty kill. Jeff Schultz happened to be a particularly unfortunate soul, as he was on the ice for the first three Islander goals (all power play tallies). Brooks Laich and Jiri Novotny had a good view of the scoring, too – they were on for four of the six goals the Isles scored.

But as much as Washington’s defense – and especially the penalty killing – struggled, it was equally a case of the offense failing to convert any of the chances they had . . .

- Alexandre Giroux misfired on a semi-breakaway.
- Alexander Semin had Islander goalie Rick DiPietro at his mercy and decided to pass the puck to a covered Alexander Ovechkin (now he decides to pass…)
- Brooks Laich had a great tip-in opportunity that he tipped into Rick DiPietro’s logo.
- The Caps wasted four power play opportunities (while giving up three power play goals) before scoring a man-up goal when the game had been decided.
- Alex Ovechkin was held to one shot over the first 58:45 of the game; Alexander Semin had one shot for the game. Those two players had 57 percent of the Caps goals among players who took the ice last night.

If there is one thing obvious at the moment, this team can’t pass very well, and it shows up in an inability to enter the offensive zone under control. Whereas the Islanders were entering the Caps’ zone in control of the puck for most of the night, the Caps were left to dump and chase, and this club is not really engineered at the moment for fierce forechecking. That stands in stark contrast to the Islanders, who perform that task rather effectively.

The Caps also couldn’t escape the contest without two things happening. John Erskine got another delay-of-game penalty, and the Caps sustained another injury. Kris Beech took one shift in the second, during which he blocked a shot, and was absent for the remainder of the evening. Fans will be asked to bring equipment to the next home game on Friday against Carolina, just in case.

Steve Eminger described the situation as “real frustrating.” That’s what happens this time of year to teams with little to play for. Clubs like the Islanders – if they expect to make the playoffs – have to make short work of clubs like the Capitals. That’s what the Isles did. That is something to which this group of Caps must aspire – to be in the position of taking advantage of weaker opponents in a playoff drive.

That, unfortunately, will have to wait until next year . . . well, we hope next year.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Thrashers

As if it was a playoff game.

This is really the only rivalry that qualifies for the Caps in the Southeast Division. As goaltender Olaf Kolzig characterizes it, the Thrashers are "a team we hate." While still a pale imitation of what were the rivalries of the old Patrick Division, last night conjured up images of those old days. That the Caps are starting to feel a bit of the urgency of trying to secure a playoff position only added to the drama of what would turn out to be a 3-2 overtime win over the Atlanta Thrashers.

One had the feeling that Atlanta brought more talent into this game than the Caps, but at no point did the Thrashers truly dominate the action. The Capitals might have played their most complete defensive game of the year, holding the Thrashers to single digits in shots in each of the periods (including only one – but what a scary one it was – in the overtime).

There were heroes aplenty, and not just the ones who scored or set up scores . . .

Let’s start with Lawrence Nycholat. Is this guy an emerging story, or what? He led the club in ice time last night (more than 27 minutes), +1, three shots, a couple of hits, three blocked shots, and his was but one of several fine efforts from the blue line.

Or Donald Brashear . . . one doesn’t always need a fight to establish some momentum. He only had 7:45 of ice time, but made the most of his opportunities with a couple of hits and a lot of jump. The Peerless doesn’t remember him skating this well when he was in Philadelphia.

Or Olaf Kolzig . . . it would have been understandable if on this, his King Clancy Trophy tribute night, he wasn’t entirely in focus. But when you’re 36 and have been in 679 regular season and playoff games, you’ve seen most of it, if not all of it. Nothing reflected the kind of effort he had and the kind of player he is than taking J.P. Vigier’s skate to the back of the head, felling him for a couple of minutes as he shook the cobwebs out. Then, while still a bit woozy, he got just enough of the Vigier penalty shot with the inside of his right pad to deflect the puck to the far post and snuff the play. The guy is a linebacker on skates.

Chris Clark . . . was on the ice for each of the Caps’ goals. And he’s not just a bystander when the Alexes do what they do. He was right in the thick of things on the game-winner, drawing a defender to the outside to open up the ice and allow Steve Eminger to come through the middle and take the pass that would then become the behind-the-back feed on highlight clips this morning.

Add in the kind of performance that doesn't show up on the scoresheet (at least directly, but the Thrashers had only 22 shots in more than 64 minutes) by Shaone Morrisonn, Boyd Gordon, Brian Sutherby, Dainius Zubrus, Matt Pettinger, and others, and it was a fine all-around night.

There are very few numbers from last night that jump off the scoresheet, at least among individuals. The Alexes had 13 of the Caps’ 37 shots, but that’s not entirely unexpected. That Brooks Laich was next with four is. That ties his season high.

The real deal in the numbers is the balance . . . of the 18 skaters:

- 14 recorded shots on goal (of 37 total)
- 15 were credited with hits (of 28 total)
- Six had blocked shots
- Nine had takeaways
- Five had points (which does not include Olaf Kolzig, who had an assist on the first Alexander Semin goal)
- 16 had power play time (ok, Brashear had two seconds, sue me)

Both teams came in nicked – Atlanta was missing such as Andy Sutton and Slava Kozlov, the Caps John Erskine, Bryan Muir, and Matt Bradley. It had the feel of a playoff game, especially as the contest was winding down in regulation when the crowd of 15,642 seemed to get into the spirit of things. As the horn sounded to signal overtime and the game tied 2-2, one could only think of Joe Gould, the manager of “Gentleman Jim” Braddock . . .





. . . and at the 4:42 mark, Alexander Semin – with the help of Chris Clark and Steve Eminger – did just that.

It calls to mind a quote from the real Jim Braddock, who before his championship fight with Max Baer was called "a bum" by the Baer camp. "I may not be a great fighter, but I ain't a bum," replied the challenger.

And this morning, neither are the Caps.