2008-2009 Previews: Alex Ovechkin

And finally…

Alex Ovechkin

Last year: 65-47, 112, +28, 22 PPG, 11 GWG, 220 hits

Career average (per-82 games): 55-49-104, +4, 20 PPG, 8 GWG

Fearless’ Take: If you were going to build a hockey player for the 21st century from the ground up, it would probably be Alex Ovechkin. He is not only the most dynamic talent on ice in the league, he has fast established himself as the most dynamic personality off it, as well. There isn’t much to say about him, his 2007-2008 season, or his potential that hasn’t already been said. He is the first player in half a century to be named the best at his position (first team NHL all star) in his first three years and is the only skater in the history of the league to be so named. His domination of the league’s scoring rankings last year was the stuff of legend. His 65 goals eclipsed second place Ilya Kovalchuk’s total by 13 goals, a full 25 percent margin. It was the first time since the 2000-2001 season that the goal-scoring champion led his nearest competitor in total goals scored and percent margin (Jarome Iginla bested three other players, 52-41, in that year). It was the first time since 1995-1996 that a player scored that many goals to lead the league (Mario Lenieux, 69).

His consistency as a pro has been amazing, and it was on display last year. Only once did he go consecutive games without a point, a three-game stretch from February 15-20. He had only one stretch when he went more than two games without a goal, a seven-game drought from February 15-29. And when it came to take the club and carry it on its final run, from March 1 – April 5 (the last 17 games of the season), he was 17-12-29, +19. No player in the post-lockout era dominated the season or the stretch run as did Ovechkin in 2007-2008. It sets a very high bar to try and raise in 2008-2009.

Cheerless’ Take: OK, let’s look at that February 15 – 29 stretch for a minute, cuz. Seven games, 0-5-5, -4. What happened?...distractions, perhaps? Ovechkin is the closest thing to a rock star the NHL has to offer, and it arguably its most important global marketing commodity (with apologies to the suits in the NHL front offices that are trying so very hard to make Sidney Crosby the face of the NHL). And he did appear in a lot of places and magazine covers this summer. Ovechkin’s summer was also as newsworthy for the latest girlfriend news or appearance on variety shows as it was for anything to do with hockey. Ovechkin might have as single-minded an attitude when it comes to hockey as anyone who plays the sport, but distractions do intervene from time to time. If one is looking for a reason to think he will have a drop off this season (and I’ll admit, cuz, it’s an exercise in picking nits), it is the distractions and demands on his time off the ice that could serve to undermine the season.

The Peerless’ Take: Players who score more than 60 goals don’t win Stanley Cups, not since Wayne Gretzky’s hey-day with the Edmonton Oilers, at least, and those clubs were loaded in ways the Capitals can only, for the moment, dream of. Ovechkin could score 70 goals this year. He could score 50-in-50. He could consign Joe Malone to the dustbin of history with an eight-goal game. All of that is nice, but for the Caps to be successful, they might have to see a little bit of Steve Yzerman in Alex Ovechkin. Yzerman was a scoring whiz on bad Red Wings teams in the 1980’s. When he forsake a bit of his scoring game for a more rounded game, his teams won. We do not want to argue for an Ovechkin becoming a 35-55-80 point player. The Caps won’t win with that player, either. And what we’re looking for is not necessarily Ovechkin suspending his aggressiveness in the offensive zone. We think it is a case of more people getting more opportunities. Instead of Ovechkin having to carry the offense with 422 shots (his career 82-game average), it might be an Alexander Semin, a Nicklas Backstrom, or someone else and taking more advantage of the opportunities presented to them.

Ovechkin is, and will continue to be, the straw that stirs the Capitals’ drink (or he might be the seltzer). He will begin – and in fact already has begun – to dominate the game in other ways. He got a taste of penalty killing this pre-season and showed an ability to use even those situations as an opportunity to put pressure on opposing defenses. That probably isn’t going to be a feature of the regular season, at least as a standard deployment, but it is another weapon in the Capitals’ arsenal. Ovechkin also has the look of someone who is taking it upon himself to exercise more leadership on and off the ice. He leads by performance and example, be it scoring hat tricks, being the first on and last off the ice in practice, or in driving to Philadelphia on a night he wasn’t playing to be with his teammates for a preseason game.

Ovechkin is the hockey player – the athlete, for that matter – that you would order from Central Casting for his performance, his personality, for the buzz he seems to create wherever he goes. You'd have to look long and hard to find someone who has more fun being himself. He might not scale the same goal-scoring heights he did last year, but he – and the Caps – will be better this year.

Projected: 55-51-106, +22

2008-2009 Previews: Nicklas Backstrom

Next…

Nicklas Backstrom

Last Year: 14-55-69, +13, 4 GWG

Career average (per-82 games): See above

Fearless’ Take: Well, the year was worth the wait, wasn’t it? There were a few Caps fans who might have thought last year, “what’s he waiting for?...what is he spending another year in Sweden for?” Well, the player that arrived last year was NHL-ready. The team brought him along slowly, starting him on the wing, instead of burdening him with the added responsibility at both ends playing center would have entailed (thanks might be owed to Glen Hanlon here). But when he moved to the pivot, and when he stepped up to the top line to stay, his year took off. From the time he potted an overtime winner in Bruce Boudreau’s coaching debut in Philadelphia through the end of the season, he was 13-47-60, +18 in 61 games. Over the last 18 games, in which the Caps went 14-4-0, Backstrom was 5-14-19, +16. That last number is not a misprint. He is not what one would necessarily call a superior passer in the same sense one would use that term for Sidney Crosby, but what he is, is a superior playmaker. He sees the play and takes (or, rather, gives to his teammates) what is available, displaying an amazing patience for a rookie. What was mentioned in advance of his arrival, but perhaps not fully appreciated until he was seen in action, was his defensive ability. Backstrom was not the rookie who shirked his responsibility in his own end. That was true in spades down the stretch.

Cheerless’ Take: scratch-scratch-scratch…hmm…well…maybe he should shoot more (he was fifth on the team, cuz…he shoots enough, just fine). OK, he needs to do better on faceoffs (his 46.3 percent success rate was better than Crosby’s 45.5 in his rookie year). Well...just stick it in yer flygplatsen.

The Peerless’ Take: It would be really hard to come up with a complaint about Backstrom’s play, and we suppose that’s really the point. He did a lot of things very well. That’s not to say he can’t, won’t, or shouldn’t improve some things, but he had the look of someone who has been at this for a while. There weren’t many situations in which he looked as if panic was an option. He did have a couple of bumps in the road – in mid-December, when he went 2-2-4, but was -6 over a four-game stetch (three of which the Caps lost), and a nine-game stretch in February in which he had seven assists (no goals), but was -7, mostly against inferior competition (Atlanta twice, Florida, Tampa Bay, and Columbus). But, he came within an eyelash of winning the rookie scoring title (finishing three points behind Patrick Kane), led all rookies in assists, was third in plus-minus, tied for second in game-winning goals, tied for the lead in even-strength scoring, and was third in power play scoring among rookies. Was it a case of being the beneficiary of Alex Ovechkin – his ability to both occupy defenders and to finish plays? Or was it a case of Backstrom being the set-up guy folks had in mind when thinking, “if Ovechkin only had a playmaker?” Either way, it is a chicken-and-the-egg question Caps fans would like to spend the next 15 years pondering.

Projected: 18-62-80, +15

2008-2009 Previews: Alexander Semin

We’re down to the last three…

Alexander Semin

Last Year: 26-16-42, -18, 10 PPG

Career average (per-82 games): 32-27-59, -12, 13 PPG

Feerless’ Take: You listen to some folks talk about Semin, and you get the impression he is the most gifted talent on the team, surpassing that of even Alex Ovechkin, at least in terms of the offensive end of the ice. He is certainly a scorer – a 30-plus goal capable scorer, despite having fewer than 200 games of NHL experience. Last year was a lost one in some respects for Semin. He played in only six of the first 23 games, posting one goal and one assist and going minus-2. That was a pretty deep hole out which he had to climb. But he did end up netting 25 goals in his last 57 games, a 36-goal pace that was just behind his 38-goal performance of 2006-2007. For a player who shoots from distance, as opposed to a player who scores more goals from in close on rebounds and loose pucks, Semin is a very efficient shooter. He scored on 15.6 percent of his shots two years ago, when he had those 38 goals, and was successful 14.1 percent of the time last year. What he doesn’t do is shoot the puck, at least as much as one might think a “sniper” would – he was 89th in the NHL in shots last year and 30th the year before (by way of comparison, in 1997-1998, when Peter Bondra had 52 goals, he was fifth in the league in shots). Part of this is that there is but one puck to shoot, and Alex Ovechkin is on the firing end of it more than anyone in the league. Part of it, too, is that sometimes, Semin seems intent on making the last deke, turn, or curl before he shoots, and he loses the opportunity. The one thing that could help him this year, that could complete his education as a scorer, is being on the receiving end of plays that Sergei Fedorov can set up.

Cheerless’ Take: You’d like us to think that Semin is Pavel Bure in waiting, wouldn’t you? Well, for as much grief as Bure got for being a 100-foot player, he was +42 over his career of 702 games. He was never worse than -14 in any full season. Semin is already -27 in 192 games and has never been a plus player in any of his three seasons. He was -18 last year, for heaven’s sake -- -16 in those last 57 games you talked about. Maybe it was that ankle that had him on the shelf for 17 games early, or maybe he just isn’t paying enough attention in the defensive end of the ice. He was on the ice for 49 even strength goals in 63 games. That was third worst on the team among forwards, and the other two – Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom – both played in 19 more games than did Semin.

The Peerless’ Take: OK, Semin isn’t going to win a Selke Trophy. How many top-end goal scorers do? What is lost sometimes in Semin’s brief career to date is that he really has had one full season. His first year consisted of 52 games, and last year it started slowly with those 17 games missed in the first 23. Healthy, he is probably a point a game player, if not this year, then soon. He could be a 50-goal scorer, if not this year, then soon. He won’t be 25 until next March, so he has some time yet before he hits his prime. The question is not skill – he has that. It is maturity. Can he avoid the oddly boneheaded play that comes at the most inopportune time? Can he play passable defense on at least an occasional basis? Can he hone his judgment to know when to have his SportsCenter moment, when to make the smart pass, or when to just fire the puck? Semin is a work in progress. That’s really the charitable way of putting it. But folks got a glimpse late last year of the effect of a Sergei Fedorov on Semin’s play. Early on, at least from our perch, Semin looked to be almost too reverential in his approach to playing with Fedorov. But when they finally got it, Semin’s production improved considerably. With a whole season, it could be a very big year. But that’s the step Semin hasn’t yet taken.

Projected: 38-34-72, -5

2008-2009 Previews: Viktor Kozlov

We’re getting close to the end, and the next look is at…

Viktor Kozlov

Last year: 16-38-54, +28

Career average (per-82 games): 18-31-49, +6

Fearless’ Take: Let’s get this out of the way right at the top. Kozlov is Kozlov. He is a guy who is going to be a consistent goal scorer. In the last eight seasons he has played at least 60 games, he’s scored 16-17-16-17-22-12-25-16 goals. In eight of his last nine seasons, he’s put up between 0.54 and 0.88 points per game. He’s generally had 5-7 power play goals per year (last year he had two). Whether one thinks Kozlov does or does not have the potential to score more than what he has, he is 33 years old with more than 800 games of NHL experience. He’s going to be a good bet to score somewhere in the high teens in goals and get about 50 points. He’s going to get those goals playing on the right side of the top line with Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin. If anything, Kozlov looked like a steadying influence for the early-20-somethings on that top line. After Bruce Boudreau took over, Kozlov didn’t have a point streak of more than four games (three times) and didn’t have a scoreless streak of more than three games (five times). He had only ten “minus” games in the last 61 under Boudreau, and never did he have consecutive “minus” games. There might be question marks here and there on the roster over what to expect, but Kozlov shouldn’t be among them.

Cheerless’ Take: The most lethal shooter on the planet to occupy a defense, a gifted playmaking (even if rookie) centerman, and Kozlov scored nine fewer goals than he did on Long Island in 2006-2007? Yes, he had 12 more assists than in the previous season, but wouldn’t you expect that? There isn’t anything about his game that really merits complaining about, but by the same token, it’s hard to get excited about anything he’s bringing in his game, too. Well, the last time he was in the walk year of his contract (2006-2007), he had a career year in goals (25). This is a walk year…we’ll see.

The Peerless’ Take: Some guys seem to be magnets for fan frustration. On the Caps, Jeff Schultz is such a player (he isn’t physical enough); Viktor Kozlov is another. The Peerless is not exactly sure why. One could reasonably argue (we did last year, so maybe it’s not reasonable) that Kozlov was a 30-plus goal scorer in waiting. But, he’s not. And that’s not the end of the world. He is consistent, and on a young team, that’s still a plus. He’ll be among the team leaders in most of the obvious statistics – he was fifth in goals last year, third in assists, fourth in total points, tied for first in plus-minus, fourth among forwards in average ice time. Where he might slip is in power play ice time. He was fifth among forwards who played the entire year in DC. Sergei Fedorov is likely to get a fair amount of man-advantage ice time, and Chris Clark might get some as a traffic creator. If Tomas Fleischmann shows improvement in his finishing ability, he could eat into Kozlov’s power play ice time as well. But somehow, some way, Kozlov will find himself at the end of the year somewhere close to his career averages.

Projected: 16-36-52, +19

2008-2009 Previews: Sergei Fedorov

And now…

Sergei Fedorov

Last Year: 11-30-41, -5, 6 PPG

Career Average (per-82 games): 32-46-78, +18, 10 PPG

Fearless’ Take: After suffering 191 games in Columbus over almost three seasons, looking as if he was going through the motions on the last lap of his career, he was sprung loose to join a bunch of frisky Russians and an otherwise young group with promise. He didn’t look like an old man in the 18 games he dressed for the Caps after the trading deadline. He did not put up big numbers (2-9-11, -2) in those 18 games, but he didn’t have to be the big, go-to guy. He won’t have to play that role on this team, either. He’ll probably get work to start the year centering Alexander Semin and, it would seem, Brooks Laich. It took Semin a while to get accustomed to Fedorov late last year, but scored four goals in the last six regular season games, all of which which included an assist from Fedorov. This could be as intriguing a pairing as the Backstrom-Ovechkin pair on the top line.

Cheerless’ Take: 83-65-44-42-41. That’s the last five seasons’ worth of points for Fedorov. Call it the effect of playing on bad teams (the last four years were on teams that finished below .500), but that’s not a trend you want to see, even if it is part of the hall-of-famer to be’s career winding down. And, in the last three seasons, he’s missed a total of 38 games (in the previous six seasons he missed a total of 31 games). The dip in goal-scoring Fedorov has experienced in recent years isn’t so much a function of his shot-taking as it is his shot-making. From the 1998-1999 through the 2003-2004 season, Fedorov scored on fewer than ten percent of his shots only once and was 11.7 percent overall. Since then, he has been over ten percent once in three years and was 9.1 percent overall. Is he, at this point in his career, a second line center over the long haul of 82 games?

The Peerless’ Take: The Capitals have, by their franchise standards, remarkable depth at forward in terms of scoring ability. That means Fedorov doesn’t have to be the point-plus-per-game player he was for more than a decade in Detroit. The Caps could have half a dozen players with more than 50 points this year (they had four last year), and Fedorov figures to be one of them. Something to watch, based on recent history, is that Fedorov has been a bit of a power play specialist. Of his last 29 goals over two seasons, 13 have come with the man advantage (he also has a pair of shorthanded goals). What Fedorov might no longer have in terms of high-end scoring ability, he will make up for in experience (and that which he imparts to the youngsters on the club) and versatility. With the Capitals keeping 22 on their roster – and only six defensemen – Fedorov is what amounts to the “emergency” defenseman, having played that position from time to time in his career. Once Michael Nylander went down last year, the Caps lacked an effective second line center. Specifically, they lacked a credible playmaker there to take more advantage of Alexander Semin’s finishing skills. That should not be a problem this season.

Projected: 14-38-52, +2

2008-2009 Previews: Michael Nylander

Next up…

Michael Nylander

Last Year: 40 games, 11-26-37, -19

Career average (per-82 games): 19-43-62, +7

Feerless’ Take: For a guy who played only half a season – and a good portion of that with an injury that eventually sidelined him – he scored at a pace that justified his signing. The pace he was on (23-53-76) would have exceeded his career averages in goal, assists, and points; and it would have been comparable to his best years, spent with the Rangers. He was especially effective on the power play, where his five goals and 13 assists put him on a pace to finish second on the team in goals (10) and tops in assists (27), if projected over a full season. He was on a pace to match the 37 total power play points that Alex Ovechkin had to lead the team. In terms of what Nylander was signed to do, he largely delivered in his abbreviated season.

Cheerless’ Take: The 500-pound gorilla in the room is that other number…-19. If you’re talking about “pace,” cuz, that was a number on a pace for -39. That would have been worst in the league by a country mile (Radek Bonk finished -31). Nylander was -14 at home, which is a stunning number. That “pace” (-29) was almost bad enough to be worst without playing a road game. As it was, he was next to last among all NHLers in home plus-minus (Matt Stajan was -17 in 82 games). You could argue that much of his problem was a byproduct of the torn rotator cuff that would end his season (he played six weeks with the injury and was in a position where he was unable to practice, according to reports), but now he has to come back from that injury.

The Peerless Take: Nylander has shown himself to be a fairly reliable scorer in his career – he has never finished a season with fewer than 50 points in a season in which he played at least 65 games (he’s done that six times). Only once did he score less than 60 points in such a season. What’s more, he has never finished such a season on this minus side of the ledger. Nylander is another “free agent” in that how he fits into the Caps’ scheme of things is a considerable unknown. In 19 games under coach Bruce Boudreau, he was 6-12-18, -11. He had six multi-point games in that stretch. The -11 is a flashing light that indicates “injury.” He was just not able to provide much resistance in the defensive end tending to his responsibilities. His history suggests that will be corrected, if he’s healthy. But it is that 18 points in 19 games that is most intriguing. One school of thought argues that Nylander’s east-west, peel off and set things up style is fundamentally at odds with Boudreau’s north-south, press the issue style. The results suggest that there is a common ground here. What seems as likely as not to affect his numbers is not the lingering effects of the injury as much as the ice time he might get in a crowded group of Capital scoring forwards.

Projected: 17-35-52, -2

2008-2009 Previews: Brooks Laich

Well, we’re half way through the forwards, which brings us to…


Brooks Laich

Last Year: 21-16-37, -3, 8 PPG

Career average (per-82 games): 13-14-27, -5

Fearless’ Take: Chris Clark played in one game after November 28th last season. One might have asked who, if anyone, could step into the “unexpected” scorer role that Clark jumped into during the 2005-2006 season. Well, Brooks Laich went 17-14-31 after November 28th, a span of 58 games. That works out to a 24-20-44. He was 12-8-20 in his last 22 games. And, just as Clark was “Mr. Opportunity” in his first two years with the Caps, Laich slid into that role comfortably last year, with 10 special teams goals (eight power play, two shorthanded) and four game-winners. He finished third in goals, third in power play goals, led the club in shorthanded goals, was tied for second in game-winners, had the best shooting percentage on the team, led all forwards in blocked shots, and did all of this in barely 14 minutes of ice time per night (ninth among Cap forwards). He might have been the most efficient player on the club whose name didn’t start with “O.”

Cheerless’ Take: Chris Simon scored 29 goals in 1999-2000 and never had more than 14 in a season again. You could argue it was due, in part, to shoulder injuries (or becoming player often times exhibiting galactically poor judgment), or it might have been just one flukish year. Now, Brooks Laich is probably a fundamentally more sound player than Simon ever hoped of being, but one year doesn’t turn Randy Robitaille into Luc Robitaille, either. Then there is the matter of where he plays. He might play with Alexander Semin and Sergei Fedorov, playing a similar role to that which Chris Clark might play with Michael Nylander and Tomas Fleischmann, for example. Is he going to get chances, or is he going to play “fetch the puck?”

The Peerless’ Take: Cheerless, who cares if Laich plays “fetch the puck” (or if Clark does, for that matter)? If he plays that role well, Semin and Fedorov – should that be his line assignment – are certainly capable of knowing what to do with the puck when they get it, and the team benefits in any case. There is also the matter of special teams. Laich had eight power play goals while averaging 1:18 in power play time a game. He might not get a lot of time in that role, but he’s showed himself to have a knack (ok, for one season, anyway) for making the most of that opportunity What Laich got was an opportunity. The production he enjoyed last year was, frankly, that envisioned for Matt Pettinger. But Pettinger – who scored 36 goals combined in the two seasons preceding last year – simply couldn’t find the spark to start the year and got shoved to the back of the dog house when he didn’t improve under Bruce Boudreau. Laich jumped into the void and made the most of it. The fact is, Laich could be one of those guys who scored prolifically in junior (63 goals in 107 games in his last two seasons in Canadian junior) who struggled a bit with scoring at the pro level until: a) he got consistent playing time, and b) the light finally went on in terms of how to take advantage of what skills he has to put himself in a position to score (one hopes that a similar moment comes for someone like Boyd Gordon this year).

Projected: 16-17-33, even

2008-2009 Previews: Chris Clark

Today, we’ll take a look at…

Chris Clark

Last year: Lost

Career average (per-82 games): 16-15-31, -5

Fearless’ Take: It’s almost like getting a free agent who is free. In the 61-game rush last year, when the Caps went 37-17-7 to close the season, Clark played a total of four (and only one after November), and had less than 11 minutes of ice time in the last two. What did the Caps, and coach Bruce Boudreau, miss? A guy who had an 82-game average of 27-23-50, even, and 104 hits in two full years with the club. And Clark has shown himself to be a consummate opportunistic player, as well. Much can be made about the fact that he’s achieved these two-year numbers playing on the right side of the top line with Alex Ovechkin (that would be taking advantage of an opportunity), but along with that, more than a third of the goals Clark scored were on special teams – ten on the power play and seven shorthanded goals. Think Coach Boudreau can find a role for that sort of player?

Cheerless’ Take: He won’t be playing on Ovechkin’s line this year, at least not to start the year. If there is one line that seems pretty well cemented, it is the Ovechkin-Backstrom-Kozlov line. He might end up having to play the role of rooting out pucks from the corners and the boards for linemates such as Michael Nylander or Tomas Fleischmann, neither of whom are suited to that role. Neither are the finisher Ovechkin is, either (Feerless…”tell me, cuz, who is?”). That might be an intriguing line in some respects, but will it be productive? And, Clark is coming off a season where he lost 57 of the last 61 games, largely to a severe groin injury. How is he going to fare, skating 41 games in the gravel pit on 7th Street?

The Peerless’ Take: You ever see those pics from long ago? The dirt-smeared face of the grunt in the trenches in war? Hockey isn’t war, but Clark is that guy in the trenches who does whatever needs to be done to help his team. He could play on any line and contribute. He plays both ends of the ice, he checks, he hits, he’ll stand up for a teammate when they’ve had their liberties abused, and he’s shown a knack for scoring the opportunistic goal. There are some people you look at in life and without knowing much about them, you still think, “leader.” Clark has that sort of presence, and it is why he is such a good fit as captain of this team. He isn’t likely to duplicate his goal-scoring total of two years ago (30), but he could have opportunities around the net playing with Nylander and Fleischmann, both of whom can play a puck possession game. Lost in last year’s injury-riddled mess is the fact that Clark was 5-4-9, even, in 18 games. That works out to a respectable 23-18-41 over 82-games, and he earned most of that total before Bruce Boudreau arrived on the scene. But whatever his output on the score sheet, he can – and will – contribute in a lot of other ways.

Projected: 14-14-28, +4

2008-2009 Previews: Tomas Fleischmann

And now, we're up to…

Tomas Fleischmann

Last Year: 10-20-30, -7

Career average (per-82 games): 10-18-28, -14

Fearless’ Take: Fleischmann has skill. The question is whether he has “AHL skill” or “NHL skill.” In the AHL, he was 59-74-133 in 155 career regular season games. If anything, he ramped up his performance in the playoffs, going 16-37-53 in 39 career AHL playoff games (all with Hershey). But in the NHL, he’s been somewhat slow to develop. A lot of the problem is his getting pushed around the ice a lot, not having the wherewithal to deal with the more limited time and space one gets in the NHL. Last year, going to camp without a contract, he not only played himself into a deal, but played himself onto the top line to start the season. It ended up being something of an albatross around his neck for much of the season. Set that aside for a moment and ask, for a guy who went into the 2007-2008 season with only 43 games of experience, was 10-20-30 that bad of a year, especially when he wasn’t on that top line anymore?

Cheerless’ Take: Fearless, Fleischmann has a job as a "top-six" forward. That’s his calling in the NHL. If he doesn’t cut the mustard there, he doesn’t have a job. It really comes down to that. And if he gets top-six minutes, he should get 30 points by accident on this team in an 82-game season. But let’s put that aside for a second. What’s up with that -14 in his career average? Last we checked, the rink was 200 feet long, and you generally had to play in both ends of it. He wasn’t the worst on this team in that regard (his -7 was tied with Donald Brashear and ahead of both Alexander Semin and Michael Nylander), but he’s been on the bottom half of the club in each of his three years with the Caps. He looked somewhat sturdier in camp and preseason, which could improve his ability to defend, but that will be something to watch, too.

The Peerless’ take: Fleischmann is another of those guys who is being, or will be pushed for a roster spot sooner rather than later. Chris Bourque could push him now (but for the options the club has with Bourque as far as sending him down to Hershey), and guys like Francois Bouchard, Dmitri Kugryshev, or even an Oskar Osala could push him down the road. In a sense, the apprenticeship of Tomas Fleischmann is at an end. His skills aren’t a mystery – he has displayed a talent as a fine puck handler and passer, and he’s shown an ability to score in the clutch…in the AHL. He now has more than 100 NHL games of experience under his belt. He has shown improvement (30 points for a player bringing as much experience as he had into last season wasn’t a bad result). But it is time to take another step. What might influence that is – as in the case of a few others on this team – what the third line looks like. If one presumes a top line of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Viktor Kozlov; and a second line of Alexander Semin, Sergei Fedorov, and Brooks Laich (for argument’s sake), then a third line might look like Fleischmann, Michael Nylander, and Chris Clark. That was, in fact, a line that worked together for a time in training camp. It would present Fleischmann with the opportunity to demonstrate that his skill isn’t limited to an “AHL” standard. But until he demonstrates that kind of a leap in production…

Projected: 10-18-28, -3

2008-2009 Previews: Matt Bradley

Fearless…Cheerless…you want to stop playin’ with the livestock and get back in here. We have work to do…

Matt Bradley

Last year: 7-11-18, +1, 2 GWG

Career average (per-82 games): 8-12-20, -4

Feerless’ Take: “Fearless” would be a good nickname for Bradley. He’s not going to score a lot, but what he does bring is energy, an affinity for hitting things in the sweater of the other club, and for taking things into his own hands when the need arises...

Bradley has been consistent in his three years with the Caps, generally putting up 20 points per 82 games, which is right there with his career average. The odd part of it is that he’s done it with decreasing ice time-per-game – 12:35 in his first year in Washington, 11:55 in 2006-2007, and 9:59 last year. Chalk one up for efficiency. He’s also been consistent in dealing punishment to opponents. In his first year in Washington, he had 120 hits in 74 games, in 2006-2007 he had 65 in 57 games (when he missed 21 games for a variety of injuries and personal reasons), and in 2007-2008 he had 126 in 77 games. He doesn’t have the offensive upside of some of the “plumbers” of the 1980’s squads, but he brings the same solid “lunch pail” ethic. The team must have seen something it liked, having signed him last May to a three-year, $3 million deal.

Fearless’ Take: Don’t get me wrong, cuz, but don’t you think three years at a million-per was a bit much for a guy who has a total of 95 points and is -18 in over 400 games? OK, he was tied for 74th in hits last year – that’s all very nice. He was also tied for 356th in points with the likes of wingers Jordin Tootoo, Stephane Veilleux, Trevor Letowski, and Chris Thorburn. All of them are paid less in the NHL than Bradley, except Letowski. Oh, he’s in the KHL.

The Peerless’ Take: Well, Cheerless, Bradley might be the highest paid among those you mentioned. He is also the only one of that group who finished the year on the plus side of the ledger (the others were a combined -35). And here is your fun fact…in the 18 games Bradley played after the trading deadline, he was 4-3-7, +7, and average more than two minutes above his season average of ice time. He got more work, more responsibility, and did rather well for a fourth liner. Bradley turned 30 over the summer. That almost puts him among the elder statesmen on this team. It also suggests that he’s settled into being a pro. Except for injury, he’s been a full time performer for the Caps in his three years here, performing an important role as a guy who will get under the skin of opponents, stand up for teammates, and pot the occasional goal…including when he calls his own number in the shootout.

Projected: 6-9-15, even

2008-2009 Previews: Boyd Gordon

Next up…

Boyd Gordon

Last Year: 7-9-16, +5, 55.8 pct. faceoff wins

Career average (per-82 games): 6-15-21, +1, 51.7 pct. faceoff wins

Feerless’ Take: If one were projecting Boyd Gordon into a player of the past, one that might come to mind is Kelly Miller. In 1,057 regular season games, Miller averaged 14-22-26, +6 per-82 games. But in his first two seasons in Washington, Miller averaged only 10-18-2, +10 (on better teams overall than did Gordon). While they play different positions – Miller being primarily a left wing, while Gordon is primarily a center – both bring a certain earnestness and hard-working attitude to their games. Gordon has played the role of being chiefly a defensive specialist who takes critical faceoffs. In his 67 games last year, he was in the minus column only 12 times, and only once as bad as a minus-two. And, in only 17 of 67 games did he find himself with a lower than 50 percent mark on faceoffs. It would be fair to say he was extremely consistent – one knew what they were getting with Gordon night-in and night-out. On a team that has such a high-powered offense, it is nice to have a player such as Gordon who can step out and shut down an opponent, to preserve those hard-earned gains made by the offense.

Cheerless’ Take: Kelly Miller? Don’t you mean “Kip?”…or “Kevin?” The fact is, Gordon regressed last year, at least statistically. He was held to the same number of goals as in 2006-2007 (seven), had fewer assists (nine versus 22), fewer points (16 versus 29), had a worse plus-minus (+5 versus +10, on a better team), had fewer shorthanded goals (one versus two), took fewer draws (904 versus 1,214)…and did this with no appreciable change in either total or even-strength ice time. It’s nice to have two defensive, face-off, penalty killing specialists like David Steckel and Boyd Gordon on one team, but one might consider that a luxury, too. If you had to take one, right now, would it be Gordon?

The Peerless’ Take: Well, Gordon also missed a dozen games last year due to a fractured right hand, Cheerless. That was time missed, not only to contribute to the club, but coming as the injury did in late November, it cost him time to become accustomed to new coach Bruce Boudreau’s game. He was forced to play catch-up upon returning. What it means is that he has a special need to prove something this year. He has the defense and penalty-killing thing down, and he has been consistent. But can he be that Kelly Miller-type who chipped in the average of 25-30 points a season on a consistent basis? The style that the Caps play suggests he’ll get opportunities to do that, and in fact, Gordon did show some promise as a more prolific scorer when he was in Canadian junior and in the AHL. This is a contract year for Gordon – he is a restricted free agent at the end of this season. While his are valuable skills to have on a roster that has lofty aspirations – you need the guys to do the simple, basic stuff well – he is being pushed from underneath by prospects who could challenge for playing time next year (Chris Bourque, for example, if he doesn’t make the cut this year) and from the side by players with similar skill sets (David Steckel). It’s hard to say that a guy not yet 25 years old (he will turn 25 on October 19th) is in a pivotal year of his career in Washington, but such is the state of the team now, where competition has grown keen for roster spots. It is an important year for Gordon.


Projected: 9-11-20, +7

2008-2009 Previews: David Steckel

Continuing the march through the forwards, the cousins and I turn to…


David Steckel

Last year: 5-7-12, +1, 56.3% faceoff pct.

Career average (per-82 games): he hasn’t played 82 games yet, either

Feerless’ Take: Odd, isn’t it, that Steckel doesn’t yet have a full season’s worth of NHL games experience (79 games over three seasons)? It just seems as if he’s been here a while. Maybe it’s the experience he had at Hershey in his two full seasons there that heralded his arrival in Washington (a key player in two Calder Cup finals appearances). Maybe it is his solid defensive play and faceoff acumen that merely suggests more of a veteran player. Maybe it’s merely his demeanor…blending in as an island of calm in a sea of riot (the one over on the top left, without his arms raised in the air)…


…whatever, he has built himself into a solid defense-oriented center. There does, however, seem to be an unrevealed part of his game. In 176 games at The Ohio State University, he had 50 goals. In 208 games in the AHL, he had 54 goals (including 30 in 71 games at Hershey in 2006-2007). This isn’t to suggest that he is the next 30-goal scorer on the Caps (joining Ovechkin, Semin, and Clark as players on the roster who have such seasons with the Caps), but that perhaps there might be another scoring option on the bottom half of the forward lines. But even if he doesn’t improve significantly on the scoring side, Steckel provides such consistent defensive play as to be a critical element on this team.

Cheerless’ Take: Once in seven games – once – did Steckel have a better than 50 percent winning percentage on faceoffs in the opening round playoff series against the Flyers. And, he didn’t have a plus game in the bunch. As for his regular season, he was 4-2-6, +4 in six games against Tampa Bay, but was only 1-5-6, -3 in 61 games against the rest of the league. In 67 games, he had only four in which he had more than two shots on goal, and in 21 of them, he didn’t register a single shot. That’s not a recipe for improving his offense, cuz.

The Peerless’ take: Steckel was seventh among all players taking at least 500 draws in faceoff win percentage. What is telling about that is that of the six players ahead of him, none has played fewer than 298 games in his career. In fact, of the half dozen players below him in that statistic, none have played fewer than 204 games (that would be Boyd Gordon, of the Caps, by the way). And, as far as the offense goes, there is that Tampa thing…given what Tampa’s defense is likely to look like this year, he might double his goal total against the Lightning alone. Well, probably not, but it is good to keep in mind that Steckel was a rookie last year – a more mature rookie, perhaps (26 when the season ended), but a rookie nonetheless. He does have that history of producing on the offensive side of the ledger at previous stops, but that really isn’t his role on this team. He’s really on this club to matchup against the other club’s scorers, to kill penalties, and to win important draws. If he scores on top of that, it’s gravy.

Projected: 6-9-15, +3

2008-2009 Previews: Donald Brashear

Next up among the forwards…

Donald Brashear

Last Year: 5-3-8, -7, 119 PIMs

Career average (per-82 games): 7-10-17, -7, 216 PIMs

Feerless’ Take: There comes a time when, in Brashear’s particular line of work, you become the bear no one wants to poke. It is a station in the sport that comes at the price of a lot of work and pain. Brashear has had, according to hockeyfights.com, 212 fights in his NHL career (regular, post, and pre-season). If one were to average this over his career, his 192 regular season fights would mean 17 fights per 82 games. But he hasn’t had 17 fights in any NHL season since the 1998-1999 season in Vancouver. In two seasons with the Caps, he has had 26 fights in 157 regular season games. He’s hardly become a shrinking violet, but what it’s meant for the Caps and Caps’ fans is that there are other aspects of Brashear’s game on display that suggest his contribution is not merely that of an enforcer. For one, he’s had 234 hits in those 157 games, third behind Alex Ovechkin and Milan Jurcina, which isn’t bad for a player averaging less than eight minutes a game these past two years (about a third of what Ovechkin averages). There are scoring lines, and there are crash and bang lines. Brashear has shown he can contribute to the latter in ways that don’t only focus on fisticuffs.

Cheerless’ Take: Uh, cuz?...He wears ’87,’ it doesn’t make him Sidney Brashear. He was 27th on the club in average time on ice last year (last) and 27th the year before (ahead of only Jamie Hunt). He plays those less than eight minutes a game for a reason. Here’s your fun stat…in 14 seasons, Brashear has been a plus player twice. He’s still an intimidator who will police the ice for the Caps, but the flip side of that is whether he’ll take the iffy penalty, too. You didn’t forget what happened in Boston last spring, did you, cuz?

The Peerless’ Take: Brashear’s role is to maintain order, to prevent anyone from taking undue liberties with the skill players the Caps employ. It is not a unique role in the NHL; there are several heavyweights employed in this fashion. But Brashear, despite being 36 years old, is not entirely one-dimensional. He can provide serviceable minutes on the fourth line, and in a pinch can play on the checking line. How the Caps choose to populate the top three lines will influence how Brashear is used (or the extent to which he is dressed) this year. The Caps have that surplus of scoring forwards that could man three full lines, leaving the fourth as a checking line. That would seem to argue more for something like a Bradley-Steckel-Gordon deployment, leaving Brashear as an odd man out. But there will be situations and teams against which Brashear’s presence is recommended.

We would maintain that his role is just about the toughest to do well in the NHL; it is a hard way to make a living in professional sports. But having climbed the rungs of the enforcer ladder in the early stages of his career, here is what that has produced in terms of what perhaps is a statistic surprising to Caps fans. Brashear has been in the top ten in fights only once in the last eight seasons (eighth in 2006-2007). He hasn’t been in the top-five since the 1997-1998 season. There comes a time when a player in the enforcer role has built a sufficient reputation that no one really wants to challenge him…or take liberties for which they will have to answer. In that respect, Brashear is as effective a player in his role – keeping the peace – as the “skilled” players who are at the top of the scoring lists.

Projected: 2-4-6, -4

2008-2009 Previews: Eric Fehr

The defensemen and goalies taken care of, what’s next guys?...Forward, march!

Eric Fehr

Last year: 23 games, 1-5-6, +4

Career average (per-82 games): let’s wait until he plays 82 games…

Feerless’ take: OK, success in juniors doesn’t translate cleanly into success in the AHL (although it did for Fehr, until he was injured), and it certainly doesn’t mean NHL success is a given. But here’s a guy whose goal-scoring progression went “11-26-50-59” in juniors, then went “25-22” (the latter in half a season) in the AHL. He hasn’t yet turned the red light on with any frequency in his three brief stints with the Caps (three goals in 48 games), but it’s hard to imagine his being a total bust in this regard at the NHL level. For this year, he could end up getting time on the right side on any of the four forward lines. What has been encouraging about him, in the absence of instant success in netting goals, has been that he has taken to his other responsibilities (generally in fourth line duty) well. He’s given the appearance of hustling when asked to forecheck, and he’s been pretty responsible defensively. Here is your odd Eric Fehr stat from last year…despite playing in only 23 games, he was tied for fifth among forwards in plus-minus. This could be the year he passes Tomas Fleischmann on the forward prospect depth chart and establishes himself as a top-six winger, perhaps in a position to replace Viktor Kozlov in that role in time for the 2009-2010 season.

Cheerless’ Take: He’s buried on the depth chart, cuz, a scoring winger with four guys ahead of him on the right side. And he might be the most famous “what if” in Caps history after Joe Sakic (that being the “what if the Caps didn’t trade for Dale Hunter and kept the pick that was used to pick Joe Sakic?"). In his case, it’s “what if the Caps picked Ryan Getzlaf – picked with the next selection in the 2003 draft by Anaheim – instead of Fehr?” But let’s not even go there…let’s remember that a right wing also picked by Anaheim – Corey Perry – has 208 games of NHL experience to 48 for Fehr. Yeah, I know, I know…part of that is the injury problems Fehr had a couple of years ago that stunted his development. But the clock’s ticking. He’s got guys who might be crawling up behind him from the prospect pool pretty soon – Bouchard, Andrew Gordon, Kugryshev. He’s in the last year of his contract – he needs to play like it.

The Peerless’ Take: Last year, Mike Green was a 22-year old with 92 games in the NHL, three goals, and carrying around the sign that said, “prospect.” We know what he did. This year’s Green among the forwards could be Fehr. A lot depends on how the Caps deploy their forwards. Right now, they have enough for three scoring lines – Ovechkin, Semin, and Fleischmann at left wing; Backstrom, Nylander, and Fedorov at center; and Kozlov, Clark, and Laich on the right side. If there is a potential opening in this scheme, it is on the right side – Fehr is a right wing. If the Caps deploy a more traditional two scoring line, one checking line, one “energy” line set up, Fehr has a tougher nut to crack. He has not registered a point thus far in the preseason, and this might set him squarely behind the other right wings on the roster. But what has impressed in his short stays with the club over the past three seasons is that while he hasn’t yet flashed the goal-scoring that he did in junior and at Hershey, he hasn’t shirked the other responsibilities of his game. Perhaps now, with his having filled out some to take the abuse and the grind a power forward has to endure, he is ready to add that part of his game that is expected of him. We just wonder if he now has too many rungs on the depth chart to climb to have that kind of a “breakout year” that Mike Green had last year.

Projected: 10-13-23, +4

2008-2009 Previews: Jose Theodore

Now, we take a look at the new guy…


Jose Theodore

Last year: 53 games, 28-21-3, 2.44, .910, 3 SO

Career average (per 60 appearances):
25-27-4-1, 2.65, .909, 4 SO


Feerless’ Take: OK, let’s get to the happy ending right away. In every year Theodore has played more than half his team’s games in the NHL, he has had a GAA of 2.90 or lower, had a save percentage of .908 or better. Last year, while Cristobal Huet was doing his magic in Washington, Theodore was having a nice home stretch of his own. Starting February 22, with a 3-2 shootout win over Phoenix, Theodore finished the year 13-5-1, 2.29, .916, and two shutouts. Only twice did he give up more than three goals (he did allow three goals in a 7-5 loss to Edmonton on March 22, in which he was pulled early). What’s more, he was 7-1 in one-goal games down the stretch, five of them won in extra time. Whatever issues there have been with respect to his post-lockout play (and there have been), he had more than a solid year last year in Colorado, and he proved clutch down the stretch. There isn’t any clear reason to think that for the Caps, he won't stop pucks as the number one goaltender.

Cheerless’ Take: Clutch, cuz? 6.88, .826. That was his GAA and save percentage against the Red Wings in the second round of the playoffs last year. He was pulled three times in four games, for heaven’s sake (Feerless: hey, cuz, he had the flu in the first two). And there is that “post-lockout” thing. He was 31-33-7, 3.36, .886 in the first two years coming out of the lockout, and it wasn’t as if he was playing for an absolute dog of a team. The Canadiens were a 93-point playoff team in 2005-2006, and the Avalanche were a 95-point team that finished one point out of the playoffs in 2006-2007. In an odd way, there seems to be a whiff of “Olaf Kolzig” here. Yes, he’s won a Hart and a Vezina trophy, but that was seven years ago (2001-2002 season). Since then, he’s a .500 goalie (112-113-11-10). Was that home stretch you went on about a change in fortune? Or was it just a nice little wave he rode into the playoffs with the rest of the Avalanche, only to see it come crashing down in the second round of the playoffs?

Peerless’ Take: You really don’t want your goaltender to be your biggest unknown going into the season, especially when you’re being thought of as a team that can take the next big step to playoff success. But, that is the hand the Caps are playing as the 2008-2009 season begins. Theodore’s career breaks down into two neat phases, and they are, in fact, separated by the lockout. In his four full seasons as a number one goaltender heading into the lockout, Theodore was 103-112-26, 2.44, .918, with 15 shutouts. The win-loss record wasn’t especially noteworthy, but he put up pretty good goals-against and save percentage numbers in spite of it. After the lockout, he’s been 59-54-10, 2.88, .898, with three shutouts.

Theodore did finish up the regular season on a high note last year, and that is a hopeful sign. Lost in the implosion in the second round of the playoffs last year is the fact that he had a good first round against Minnesota. He was 4-2, 1.88, .940 in that series.

Which Theodore will the Caps see this year? The Caps have enough offensive firepower to cover up some bumpy stretches in goal (they had enough to cover those bumps Kolzig had from time to time during the middle third of the season last year), but at some point in this league, successful teams have to rely on solid goaltending. That point usually comes in the playoffs. Is Theodore that goaltender? That’s the biggest unknown heading into this season. But for the regular season…


Projected: 37-19-5, 2.46, .911

2008-2009 Previews: Brent Johnson

As we head into live hockey, it’s time to turn our attention to goalies, and that means first up…


Brent Johnson

Last year: 19 games, 7-8-2, 2.67, .908

Career average (per-60 appearances):
27-23-3-3, 2.62. ,902, 3 SO

Feerless’ Take: In last year’s benchmarks on goaltending, cuz, you said, “Playoff aspirants can’t afford to give away games when the number one goaltender isn’t on the ice.” Well, last year was Johnson's best in three years in Washington. His GAA was almost a full goal-per-game under his 2006-2007 production, and his save percentage was 19 points above the previous year. Here’s the thing, though – he had a nightmare of a game against the Sabres in early October (seven goals on 53 shots – it was a bad night for the Caps all around), but in 17 appearances after that, he gave up more than three goals only three times. Only seven times in those 19 total appearances did he give up more than two goals. Although his record only said 7-8-2, he was giving his team a chance to win in most of his appearances. Like any reliever, that’s what you ask for in terms of performance – give your teammates a chance to win.

Cheerless’ Take: 19 games, huh? Yeah, that’s the number he appeared in, and it’s also the number of consecutive games to close the season that he didn’t appear in (or dress for, for the most part). Sure, having Olaf Kolzig wearing the baseball cap was something of a luxury, but that’s still a lot of games to sit, even for a backup-backup. He also didn’t have a win after February 5th last year (coincidentally, it was that win that put the Caps over .500 for good). That means for the last third of the season – a little more, actually – he did not contribute a win.

The Peerless’ Take: Only once in eight seasons has Johnson played in more than half of his team’s games. He hasn’t played more than 30 games in a season since the 2002-2003 season. In the event of an injury to Jose Theodore, the immediate question becomes, “can he handle the load?” Well, here is the odd part about that…in the three years of his career in which he did play more than 30 games, he was above .500 in each year, he had a GAA below 2.50 in each year, and he had a save percentage of at least .900 in each year. In the five seasons he has played 30 games or fewer, he is below .500 in four of them, and he had a GAA of more than 2.50 in four of them (adding to the oddity, his save percentage is slightly higher in those seasons than his high-minute volume seasons). Part of this distinction is that the high volume years are all pre-lockout (the dark ages of offensive hockey), while the low minute volume years are primarily after (with the Caps).

Johnson might not be a 60-game, 3,500 minute goalie (he’s never done either in a season), but he might be someone who can contribute for long stretches, accumulating 30-40 appearances, if need be. However, he seems to have adjusted to his role over the past couple of years, performing better in a backup role than he did early in his tenure in Washington. If he can contribute a .500 season in 20-25 appearances, the Caps are more likely than not to be a playoff team this year.


Projected: 10-9-2, 2.59, .908

2008-2009 Previews: Prospect Defensemen

We’re closing our preview of defensemen by asking a question…which prospect is most likely to stick with the team come opening night? The possibilities…



Karl Alzner

Drafted: 2007 Entry Draft, 1st round/5th overall

What’s his claim? WHL Player of the Year, CHL Defenseman of the Year, Team Canada captain for the 2008 World Junior Hockey Championship.

Sami Lepisto

Drafted: 2004 Entry Draft, 3rd round/66th overall

What’s his claim? Logged seven games in 2007-2008 (0-1-1, -1, averaged more than 13 minutes a game), highest scoring defenseman in playoffs (Finland) in 2005.



Josh Godfrey

Drafted: 2007, 2nd round/34th overall

What’s his claim? He was eighth among OHL defensemen in scoring (17-34-51 in 60 games) and finished +31, a substantial improvement over the previous year (minus-2).

Feerless’ Take: Alzner clearly has the inside track of this group. He’s done everything he can do in juniors, and in the prospect camps in which he’s participated, he’s looked like a veteran compared to the other hopefuls. Realizing he’s never played a shift at NHL speed, he looks to be rarely out of place and seems to make the right decisions at the right times. He’s not flashy, but he’s got “cornerstone” written all over him for the next 12-15 years.

As for Lepisto, he had a fine year at Hershey, which argues for his getting a long look. He’s added some bulk, which he clearly needed to do when he was drafted, so perhaps he won’t be prone to abuse as much at this level. He gave a good account of himself in his cup-o’-coffee with the club last year, but seven games isn’t a six month season, either. You’d have to think he’ll be in Hershey (probably on the top pair) on opening night.

Godfrey has that booming shot, but that +31 stands out as a signal of maturity, too, that he’s taking both ends seriously. He’s a long shot to make this club out of camp; it would seem to be a function of others playing off the team more than him onto it that will be the factor. And Alzner doesn’t impress us as being the sort to play himself off of a team.

Cheerless’ Take: None of these guys are ready. It’s always easy to overrate the guys you’ve seen or that are in your own organization, especially since you’re not a scout, cuz. Since 2000, 16 defensemen have been selected in the top ten overall picks in the entry draft. Two of them – Rostislav Klesla and Jay Bouwmeester – saw action in their first year with their club after being drafted. Another eight saw NHL action in their second year. But here is the thing; through that second year, only Bouwmeester, Joni Pitkanen, Mike Komisarek, and Erik Johnson saw more than 10 regular games in a season with their respective clubs. It doesn’t seem to argue for a long stint with the Caps this year for Alzner, despite his pedigree. As for the others, Lepisto could be an injury call-up (for that matter, so could Alzner) from Hershey. Godfrey is a ways off yet.

The Peerless’ Take: At the moment, the Caps have six roster spots for defensemen encumbered: Mike Green, Shaone Morrisonn, Tom Poti, Milan Jurcina, John Erskine, and Jeff Schultz. If Brian Pothier were to suddenly get healthy, that’s a seventh position. There is a roster spot available, assuming Pothier’s health does not improve sufficiently (one, since the Caps are on record as having traded Steve Eminger because carrying eight defensemen is tough on the players). Many would like to see the Caps trade for a defenseman to give the blue line a bit more grit. The current state of the salary cap argues against that. So, there is an opening that a prospect defenseman can skate through.

Alzner will be the early favorite to make that leap. But in doing so, it is a reflection of the state of the “rebuild” (we know, it’s supposed to be over). Alzner, not to mention Lepisto or Godfrey, would be well served with getting 70-80 games of experience at Hershey, where they could log a ton of minutes in a lot of different situations. One of these guys getting third pair minutes or being the odd suit in the press box on many nights will not do much for their development. If this was to work out nicely and cleanly, Alzner (or Lepisto) might get ten or so games at this level this year, the rest in Hershey. This would be consistent with the experience of a number of top-ten drafted defenseman this decade – Jack Johnson, the late Luc Bourdon, Brian Lee. It might have been the pattern for the likes of a Dion Phaneuf, Braydon Coburn, or Ryan Suter – all members of the class of 2003 – had there been a 2004-2005 season.

Of the prospects, Alzner would be the favorite. But we have a suspicion that there is one more deal to be made before opening night. As hard as it is for defensemen to move via trade these days, we think that something along those lines will happen.

2009-2009 Previews: Mike Green

The cousins ran out of beer, and were off collecting empties to finance their next purchase, so we’ve been out for a few days. But now, we come to…



Mike Green


Last Year: 82 games, 18-38-56, +6, 4 GWG

Career average (per-82 games): 10-24-34, -6


Fearless’ take: Let’s start with this…Mike Green has played a total of 174 regular season NHL games. Of the top ten scorers among defensemen in the league last year, Green finished the year having played the fewest career regular season games (next fewest – Mark Streit: 205), and he was the youngest (Dion Phaneuf is 185 days older). What’s more, he was 15-34-49, +14 in the last 61 games of the season under coach Bruce Boudreau. That works out to a 20-46-66, +19 full season rate of production. Let’s look at this another way and compare his first three seasons (a partial and two more or less full seasons) with another defenseman and his first three seasons (a partial and two full seasons):

Green: 174 games, 21-50-71, -12, 4 GWG, 8 PPG

Player 2: 165 games, 21-66-87, +43, 2 GWG, 10 PPG

Let’s also note that Green played his partial first season and his first full season with a struggling team. Player 2 played on a team that made the playoffs in both his partial first and then his first full season. Player 2 is Scott Niedermayer. Green is by no means there, yet. He is not the Scott Niedermayer of the last ten years, but it is not beyond reasonable to think he will get there. More to the point, being managed by a coach who gives him sufficient latitude to do the things he does best, and being paired with a defenseman who complements his style very well by being a stay-at-home type (Shaone Morrisonn), he could move a little closer to that high standard in 2008-2009.

Cheerless’ take: Twenty seconds. That’s how much penalty killing time per game Green had last year. Shoot, Joel Kwiatkowski got more: 33 seconds (Uh, Cheerless?...Kiwi played in only 18 games). That’s Patrice Breeze-by territory (22 seconds). Among top ten defenseman scorers, Green had by far the lowest amount of PK ice time (Mark Streit: 49 seconds/game, the only other top-ten scoring defenseman with less than 1:20 of PK time/game). Oh, and that Niedermayer comparison?...Scotty had 3:33 of PK time/game in 48 games. Are the rest of the Caps’ defenseman that good at killing penalties that he should be last among the defensemen in that measure?

He had one big year…look at those first 92 career games, cuz. 3-12-15, -18. Was last year the start of a trend, or was last year a fluke?...a one-timer of a year? He’s got that big ol’ contract now that pays him 21 million bucks over the next four years. That sounds like a recipe for a fall to me, cuz.

The Peerless’ take: Green’s young career falls into two very clear and very neat stages:

The Hanlon Stage: 113 games, 6-16-22, -26, 0 GWG, 0 PPG
The Bourdreau Stage: 61 games, 15-34-49, +14, 4 GWG, 8 PPG

But what is interesting about that “Boudreau Stage” is that it represents something of a continuation of Green’s performance under Bruce Boudreau at Hershey…68 regular season games, 12-39-51, +9, 3 PPG.

Green does have issues in his own end. He can be at time a little lackadaisical with the puck, and he can seem to lose focus at times. Both seem the kinds of things that plague a lot of young defenseman. We don’t put a great deal of stock in the penalty killing time issue – sorry, Cheerless – since he logs so much time otherwise. What Green is, is almost the prototypical post-lockout defenseman (“offensive” category). He skates well, handles the puck well, has good judgment (given his age and experience) in jumping into the play in the offensive end, has a good sense of timing on weak side plays, is effective on the power play. In the last ten years, only one defenseman playing more than 60 games in a season achieved a point-per-game performance (Nicklas Lidstrom – 80 points in 80 games in 2005-2006). Green, given his talent, the talent around him, and the philosophy of the club, appears best positioned among current NHL defensemen to achieve that level of production. It will not, however, be this year.


Projected: 20-44-64, +15

2008-2009 Previews: John Erskine

Next up, the cousins and I take a look at…

John Erskine

Last Year: 2-7-9, +1, 96 PIMs, 102 hits

Career Average (per-82 games): 2-6-8, -16, 186 PIMs

Feerless’ Take: Fans take to stars, but rosters accommodate 23 players, generally seven or eight of them being defensemen. John Erskine is probably not going to be a star in the league, but he can be valuable as a 5-6-7 defenseman. Last year, he filled in for 51 games and was on the minus side of the ledger for only 14 of those games. In fact, except for a four-game struggle from February 15-23, during which he was -6 and on the ice for seven of 14 goals scored against the Caps, he played rather well for his role. In the eleven games he played after that streak to finish the year, he rebounded to 0-1-1, +5 (with no minus games), averaging 14:30 in ice time a game. He is not a top-four defenseman on this team, but he is not a liability on it, either, so long as he plays his role and is not asked to take on major minutes or shifts against top offensive lines.

Cheerless’ Take. Cuz, I love ya, but you’re trying too hard here. Imagine a Stanley Cup contender…say, Detroit. Do you think John Erskine is going to be playing on that team? The guy’s a warrior, and he does some of the dirty jobs that teams have to have done to win, but he’s probably not going to hold onto a regular spot in the lineup if/when the young guys coming up are ready. With Steve Eminger gone and Brian Pothier still on the shelf, he could get some regular time early, but he could lose playing time to Karl Alzner as time goes on this year, even though Alzner is an entirely different kind of defenseman.

The Peerless’ Take: Last year was the first year in Erskine’s career in which he played more than half his team’s games and finished on the plus side of the ledger (he was -15 in 60 games split between Dallas and the Islanders in 2005-2006). Does that mean anything? We’re trying to figure that out. Perhaps at the age of 28, having passed the 200-games played mark in his career, and playing at least semi-regularly, he’s reaching his peak as a player. When you average playing 34 games a year in your first five seasons, it might be a reflection of the tenuous hold on an NHL roster spot that talent permits, and it might be an indicator that a player hasn’t had enough time to establish a presence at the NHL level. Erskine played in 51 games last year and gave a good account of himself in the role of a third pair, physical defenseman. He has a role on this team – he did, after all log almost two full minutes per game more in penalty killing (2:16) than did his blue line teammate, Mike Green (0:20). This is not to say Erskine is of equal value, only that he has played – and can play – a part that contributes to success on this team…a guy who will give a good effort for 14-16 minutes a night, kill some penalties, wreak some havoc among opponents, stand up for his teammates, and give the top four guys a breather without putting the club at a disadvantage. It’s a role that is underrated.

Projected: 54 games, 2-8-10, +2

2008-2009 Previews: Jeff Schultz

The cousins – Fearless and Cheerless – are back to help with today’s look ahead at…

Jeff Schultz

Last Year: 5-13-18, +12, 61 hits

Career Average (per-82 games): 4-12-16, +13, 66 hits

Fearless’ Take: Let’s start with a fun fact from last year. As you’ll note above, Schultz was credited with 61 hits in 72 games. Did that put him among the leaders in the league? Nope, but it’s more than Sean O’Donnell (54 in 82 games), Willie Mitchell (49 in 72 games), Tom Gilbert (27 in 82 games), and Scott Hannan (58 in 82 games). Even Chris Pronger – In height and weight almost a double of Schultz, with a far bigger reputation for physical play – had 74 hits in 72 games. This is not to make a point that Schultz is far more physical than some Caps fans give him credit for being, but neither is he the nice guy on skates those fans seem to think he is, either. He held his own on last year’s club in a lot of areas: hits (5th), blocked shots (3rd), goals, (T-2nd), assists (3rd), points (3rd), ice time (4th among players with more than 40 games played). Not bad for a guy with only 110 games of NHL experience and one full season on a club that made the playoffs. And his role grew as the stakes got higher. He averaged just over 20 minutes a night (compared to his season average of 18 minutes a night) in 11 games to close the season before he was injured in the regular season finale. He is only 22 years old…he’ll get better.

Cheerless Take: It’s not that Schultz is bad; he’s not, but geez, cuz…the Caps already have enough guys who don’t do a great job of clearing the crease. They need someone to take the backsides from in front of their goalie’s face. Mike Green isn’t that guy (although he had 33 more hits than did Schultz), and Tom Poti probably isn’t, either. Until Joe Finley comes to town, Schultz is the best candidate. And before we get all smitten with his offense, he had four of his five goals over a six game stretch last year. He had one goal over his last 45 games.

The Peerless’ Take: OK, here’s another fun fact. After Christmas last year, Schultz only had seven “minus” games for the remainder of the year (in 43 total). He doesn’t get a lot of minutes against the opposition’s top pair, but his total minutes suggest he’s seeing time against players who have some offensive capability, and he logged almost as much penalty killing time per game (3:10) as did Shaone Morrisonn (3:25). Using Alan Ryder’s HockeyAnalytics ratings, he was among the top dozen penalty killing defensemen in the league last year. What he brings at this point in his career is a sense of being able to play within his capabilities. He doesn’t go for the big hit or the big rush. He plays angles well, he doesn’t take silly penalties, and he moves the puck capably. Here’s a prognostication for this year…as much as Mike Green emerged on the offensive side of the ledger last year among defensemen, Schultz is going to be that player on the defensive end this year for the Caps. He was fourth on the club in even strength time on ice last year, third in short-handed time. While he remains something of a work in progress, he’ll get bigger shares of ice time this year, and it will be a reflection of his maturity in his own end. We suspect, though, that Caps fans (some of them, anyway) will continue to bemoan his not being a big hitter. It won’t keep him from getting a considerable raise next summer when he is a restricted free agent.

Projected: 3-14-17, +15