Tuesday, April 08, 2008

Your First Round Prognostos...Devils vs. Rangers








And the last of the “other” Eastern series …

New Jersey Devils (4) vs. New York Rangers (5)

Season series:

Oct. 25: at Rangers 2, Devils 0
Nov. 3: at Rangers 2, Devils 1 (SO)

Nov. 14: Rangers 4 at Devils 2

Dec. 9: at Rangers 1, Devils 0 (OT)
Feb. 1: Rangers 3 at Devils 1
Mar. 19: Rangers 2 at Devils 1 (SO)
Mar. 27: at Rangers 3, Devils 2
Apr. 6: at Devils 3, Rangers 2 (SO)

If one watched the Devils this year, one might get the impression of a tired, boring team running on fumes. The thing is, they won 46 games. However, only one of those wins came against the Rangers. If you look at this series, you’d have to like the Devils’ chances to go to the Stanley Cup finals…if they win this series. They are 1-4-3 against the Rangers, 38-22-4 against the rest of the East.

But there is that pesky record against the Rangers. The Rangers do not play the Devils’ style, but they do match them for results on the defensive side of the ledger. The Rangers and Devils ranked 4th and 5th, respectively, in goals allowed per game this year. Neither club will make anyone forget the 1985 Edmonton Oilers, but the Rangers overcame an absolutely abysmal start, offensively (26 goals scored in their first 15 games – and that includes scoring five on opening night – and shutout three times in their first eight games of the season), to climb – if that is the right word – to 25th in per-game scoring. That would be two spots above New Jersey. We think it safe to say that the opinions of the families of the players – and Larry Brooks – notwithstanding, this will be looked upon as the most boring series of the opening round.

The Rangers dominated the numbers, as their record would suggest:

Goals for/against: 17/9 (that’s right…nine goals in eight games)
Power play goals for/against: 6/1
Even-strength goals for/against: 11/8
Power play: 6/30 (20.0%)
Penalty killing: 26/27 (96.3%)
Record, one-goal games: 4-0-1
Record, 3+ goal games: none

Looking at the Rangers top scorers, and their success against the Devils:

Jaromir Jagr: 2-1-3, even
Scott Gomez: 1-6-7, even
Chris Drury: 4-4-8, +5
Brendan Shanahan: 2-2-4, +1
Martin Straka: 0-1-1, -1 (five games)

But if there is a “secret weapon” for the Rangers, it’s Nigel Dawes. He has four of his 14 goals on the season against the Devils in seven games. And he’s been quite the sharpshooter…those four goals came on a total of 12 shots (33.3%).

In goal, Henrik Lundqvist has certainly risen to the occasion against his Devil counterpart, Martin Brodeur. He has all eight decisions (7-0-1) with a 1.09 GAA and .956 save percentage to go along with it. He doesn’t have better numbers against any other team he’s played at least two games against this year.

On the other side, the Devils are an offense-starved club, which makes the job of Brodeur that much more difficult. As for the Devils’ leading scorers this year, their record against the Rangers is, as one would expect of a team that scored nine goals in eight games, rather grim:

Zach Parise: 2-1-3, -1
Patrik Elias: 1-0-1, even
Brian Gionta: 0-1-1, -1
John Madden: 1-0-1, -2
Jamie Langenbrunner: 2-1-3, even
Dainius Zubrus: 1-2-3, -1

That’s seven of the nine goals…so forget the idea of a secret weapon based on this. As we noted, it makes Brodeur’s job that much harder. You look at a guy who has a 1.96 GAA and .922 save percentage in eight games, and you’d scratch your head as to why he has one win, and that one coming in a shootout. Well, when your teammates get you barely a goal a game, there is no need for any further head-scratching.

Why New York will win…

They have the utmost confidence that they can beat the Devils. They beat them in Manhattan, they beat them in Newark. They beat them in regulation, they beat them in overtime. They beat them here, and there, and everywhere. And it’s not like Jersey is doing it on the offensive end against anyone else. In their last ten games they were 4-5-1 (3-4-0 to teams not named, “Rangers”). They scored a total of 15 goals in their last ten games and were held to two or fewer nine times.

Why New Jersey will win…

Martin Brodeur…

Rangers in five.

Your First Round Prognostos...Penguins vs. Senators








Next up in our tour of the other playoff series…

Pittsburgh Penguins (2) vs. Ottawa Senators (7)

Season series:

Nov. 22: Penguins 6 at Senators 5 (SO)
Dec. 13: Senators 4 at Penguins 1
Feb. 23: Senators 4 at Penguins 3 (OT)
Mar. 1: at Senators 5, Penguins 4

Even though the Senators won the season series and bring more playoff experience to this series, there is something more than ominous about this matchup. It has the whiff of change about it. Pittsburgh has the motivation of having lost in the opening round to Ottawa last year, and they are – let’s face it – an extraordinarily talented team that is as healthy as it has been in months, with Marc-Andre Fleury and Sidney Crosby appearing to be recovered from their respective ankle injuries (or at least as much as they will be for this season).

Pittsburgh lost the battle of numbers to the Senators this season every bit as much as they lost the win-loss contest:

Goals for/against: 13/18
Power play goals for/against: 3/6
Even-strength goals for/against: 10/11
Power play: 3/22 (13.6%)
Penalty killing: 7/13 (53.9%)
Record, one-goal games: 1-1-1
Record, 3+ goal games: 0-1

And, the big guns upon which the Penguins will rely haven’t had any particular success against this team…

Evgeni Malkin: 2-3-5, even
Sidney Crosby: 0-1-1, even (two games)
Marian Hossa: 0-3-3, -3 (all with Atlanta)
Sergei Gonchar: 1-2-3, -1

If there is someone to watch, though, it might be Ryan Malone, who is 4-2-6, even, in his four games worth of work against Ottawa this year.

The great unknown here is goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury. Fleury had a 40-win season last year and this year finished with a sparkling 10-2-1, 1.53, .950 record after returning from an ankle injury. Despite the remarkable run Ty Conklin had when Fleury went down, Fleury is the unquestioned number one goalie. But the playoffs have been another matter for Fleury in his young career. Since turning pro, he is 3-10, 3.78, .869 in his AHL and NHL playoff career and has not won a playoff series. Which Fleury shows up will be as important a factor as any in determining how far the Penguins will go this year.

What might make things a bit easier for Fleury, and for the Penguins in general, is that the Senators come into this series wounded in important areas. Daniel Alfredsson and Mike Fisher are out with head and knee injuries, respectively. They are being described as out for “weeks,” which might mean “months” if the Senators can’t find a way to discover production from elsewhere in their lineup. Alfredsson was 3-5-8, -1 in four games against the Penguins this year. As far as the remaining leaders on this team are concerned, there is some substantial production against the Penguins this year…

Jason Spezza: 4-4-8, +4
Dany Heatley: 6-0-6, +5
Cory Stillman: 1-3-4, -1 (incl. games w/Carolina)
Antoine Vermette: 1-2-3, even
Wade Reddan: 0-5-5, +3

As if the injury situation isn’t enough for the Senators, there is the goaltending situation. Martin Gerber has taken over the number one job, and one would have to think he’ll get the call to start the series. However, despite his 2-0-1 record against the Penguins this year, his 3.25, .877 numbers don’t inspire the greatest confidence. Ray Emery, who appears to have played himself out of Ottawa, if the Senators can find a taker in the off-season for the two remaining years on his contract, has played in one game since late-February. He has a 1-0-0 record against the Penguins this year (2.77, .914), and he was the goalie of record in all five games of a 4-1 Senators series victory over the Penguins in the opening round last year.

Why Pittsburgh will win…

With all due respect to Montreal, Pittsburgh probably had the best overall season in the East this year. To finish second in the conference having lost their top center (and defending Hart Trophy winner) and top goalie for a large portion of the season is quite a feat. They enter the playoffs as the favorite of many to reach the conference final, if not the Stanley Cup final. They come into the playoffs comparatively healthy and playing well (11-4-1 in their last 15 games). They are catching a team with their best player on the bench with an injury. Even if both teams were completely healthy, Pittsburgh has more fire power (whatever the league goals/game rankings say) and a much better defense.

Why Ottawa will win…

Fleury has to demonstrate that what success he’s had so far doesn’t restrict him to being a regular season wonder who folds up in the playoffs. Until he has that playoff success, there will be doubts about his big game ability. Ottawa also has deeper playoff experience as one of last year’s Cup finalists; the fact that they are injured is a cause for concern, not panic. Their play is likely to reflect that.

There is perhaps no series among the eight in the first round where who wins Game One is more important. If Pittsburgh wins, especially if they hold Ottawa to a low goal total, it will add confidence to the talent they already bring to this matchup. On the other hand, if Ottawa wins, especially if Fleury has a difficult game, then perhaps the seeds of doubt will be planted in the heads of the younger team.

Pittsburgh in five.


Your First Round Prognostos...Canadiens vs. Bruins






Before we get hip-deep in Caps-Flyers stuff this week, what about the other series? Well, your Uncle Peerless has the low-down. Let’s start with the Canadiens and Bruins…

Montreal Canadiens (1) vs. Boston Bruins (8)

Season series:

Oct. 22: at Canadiens 6, Bruins 1
Nov. 8: Canadiens 2 at Bruins 1
Nov. 17: at Canadiens 7, Bruins 4
Dec. 6: Canadiens 4 at Bruins 2
Jan. 10: Canadiens 5 at Bruins 2
Jan. 22: at Canadiens 8, Bruins 2
Mar. 20: Canadiens 4 at Bruins 2
Mar. 22: at Canadiens 3, Bruins 2 (SO)

This is the most storied rivalry among those in the first round. Memories of Orr, Robinson, Esposito, Lafleur, Dryden, Cheevers...this is old school. But Montreal swept the season series, 8-0, and is on an 11-0 streak against the Bruins dating back to last season. That’s called, “having a team’s number.” And there really isn’t a secret about how Montreal has done it – defense and special teams. Boston has scored more than three goals once in this series since December 23, 2006, and the Canadiens' special teams have been utterly dominating. The Montreal record this year against Boston attests to that:

Goals for/against: 38/16
Power play goals for/against: 10/3
Even-strength goals for/against: 27/13
Power play: 10/34 (29.4%)
Penalty killing: 28/31 (90.3%)
Record, one-goal games: 2-0-0
Record, 3+ goal games: 4-0

And it is not as if the domination was a product of former Canadien Cristobal Huet in goal. Carey Price is 5-0-0 against Boston this year, 2.17, .927.

Among the skaters, some guys got all fat and happy playing against the Bruins:

Alex Kovelev: 7-4-11, +9
Tomas Plekanec: 3-7-10, +8
Mark Streit: 0-11-11, +8
Andrei Kostitsyn: 5-6-11, +8

Boston has to get more production from its top guys, who haven’t had much success against the Canadiens this year. For example, their top five season scorers:

Marc Savard: 1-8-9, -1
Marco Sturm: 3-0-3, even
Zdeno Chara: 1-3-4, -6
Chuck Kobasew: 0-2-2, -7
Phil Kessel: 1-3-4, -11

On top of this, Kobasew is out with a fractured tibia, and Savard has been on the shelf with a back injury. Which means, much of the load is going to fall to Tim Thomas in goal. What Thomas has done against Montreal is quite different than what he’s done against the rest of the league…

Record: 0-4-1 vs. Montreal/28-19-5 vs. everyone else
GAA: 4.21/2.24
SV: .877/.927

Why Montreal will win…

Montreal finished the year strong – 14-4-1 since losing consecutive games on February 21-23. Their top scorers have had a lot of success against the Bruins, and Carey Price appears to have achieved a comfort level as the number one goalie and in his season against the Bruins. Meanwhile, they will be taking on a team that is, for a playoff team, limping (in more ways than one) into the playoffs. Don’t let that 13-6-7 Bruin record over the last 26 games fool you. In addition to the seven overtime losses (four by way of Bettman’s Gimmick), three wins came via the gimmick. We’re done with that nonsense for the year.

Why Boston will win…

Uh, they won’t.

Montreal in four.

Monday, April 07, 2008

The Meaning of "Red"


According to the site, “Pigments Through the Ages,” the color red is stoked with meaning. As we contemplate the next phase of the “red out,” it might be useful to ponder…

“The color red is the color of fire and blood. Hebrew words for blood and red have the same origin: "dm" means red and "dom" means blood. Blood and fire have both positive and negative connotations. Bloodshed, aggression, war and hate on one side and love, warmth and compassion on the other side. Ancient Greeks associated the bright, luminous red with the male principle…”

For our purposes, the positive and negative connotations have usefulness. Aggression and conflict, directed against a foe…love and compassion, the sort that binds a team with a common goal together.


“Protective powers of the color red against evil influence were common belief. Objects, animals and trees were covered in red paint, warriors painted their axes and spear-catapults red to endow the weapons with magic powers. Some of the Australian aborigines abide by this custom up to the present times. Neolithic hunters and germanic warriors used to paint their weapons and even themselves in blood of slain animals. Roman gladiators drank blood of their dying adversaries to take over their strength. In other cultures, the newly born were bathed in blood of particularly strong and good looking animals. Red painted amulettes or red gems, such as ruby or garnet, were used as charms against the "evil eye". Wearing a red ruby was supposed to bring about invincibility.”

Protection against evil influence…assimilation of an enemy’s strength…invincibility. Useful attributes in the task that is unfolding.


“Salvation from Evil is the subject of an ancient Egyptian charm: ‘Oh, Isis, deliver me from the hands of all bad, evil, red things!’”

Fans of the Flyers might consider all things “Capitals” to be evil…and one hopes that they cry, “deliver us from the hands of all bad, evil, red things!” as the Capitals wreak havoc on their Flyers.


“Good and bad qualities are combined in Phoenix, the firebird. In Egypt, China and Central America it was associated with cleansing and revival. In China its name was the ‘Vermilion Bird’ or the ‘Substance of Fire’ and promised luck and longevity.”

Cleansing, revival, luck, and longevity. We have seen the first three of these as the Caps live to fight another day. Now, let us hope for longevity…say, to mid-June or so.


“Mere perception of red color enhances the human metabolism by 13.4 %…On the other side aggression and violence can be triggered of by red color.”

Energy is at a premium in the playoff season unfolding, as is the need to increase one’s level of aggression and, dare we say it, “violence” to be visited upon an opponent.

So wear red…celebrate aggression and conflict, love and compassion. Besides, what is “orange,” but a “warm red, intensified by a suitable yellow.”

Flyers…suitably yellow.

Of course.

No surprises here...











Although the Caps and the Flyers have not met in a playoff series since 1989, in one respect there are likely to be few, if any, surprises.

Bruce Boudreau and John Stevens coached against one another over a six-year span in the AHL, covering the 2000-2001 through 2005-2006 seasons. Stevens spent the entire time behind the bench of the Philadelphia Phantoms, while Boudreau coached the Lowell Lock Monsters (one season), Manchester Monarchs (four seasons), and the Hershey Bears (one season). Here is the tale of the tape of their coincidental tenures...







Sunday, April 06, 2008

How's this for a "first time since..."

According to the Elias Sports Bureau...
Washington is the second team in NHL history to finish a season in first place in its division immediately after three (or more) consecutive last-place finishes: the Hamilton Tigers finished in last place in a four-team NHL each season from 1920-21 through 1923-24, then finished in first place in 1924-25 in a six-team NHL.

Capitals versus Flyers











It's Philly in the first round. And, for those of you wondering about the history of these teams in the playoffs, these teams have met only three times in the playoffs in the past, the Caps holding a two-to-one edge in series, and haven't met since 1989:

1989: Patrick Division Semifinal

Philadelphia 4 - Washington 2

Game 1: Capitals 3 - Flyers 2 (box score)

GWG: Franceschetti
Winning Goalie: Peeters
Losing Goalie: Hextall

Game 2: Flyers 3 - Capitals 2 (box score)

GWG: Propp
Winning goalie: Hextall
Losing goalie: Peeters

Game 3: Capitals 4 - Flyers 3 (OT) (box score)

GWG: Miller
Winning goalie: Peeters
Losing goalie: Hextall

Game 4: Flyers 5 - Capitals 2 (box score)

GWG: Murphy
Winning goalie: Hextall
Losing goalie: Peeters

Game 5: Flyers 8 - Capitals 5 (box score)

GWG: Eklund
Winning goalie: Hextall
Losing goalie: Peeters

Game 6: Flyers 4 - Capitals 3 (box score)

GWG: Tocchet
Winning goalie: Hextall
Losing goalie: Peeters

*****

1988: Patrick Division Semifinal

Washington 4 - Philadelphia 3

Game 1: Flyers 4 - Capitals 2 (box score)

GWG: Poulin
Winning Goalie: Hextall
Losing Goalie: Peeters

Game 2: Capitals 5 - Flyers 4 (box score)

GWG: Miller
Winning goalie: Peeters
Losing goalie: Hextall

Game 3: Flyers 4 - Capitals 3 (box score)

GWG: Samuelsson
Winning goalie: Hextall
Losing goalie: Peeters

Game 4: Flyers 5 - Capitals 4 (OT) (box score)

GWG: Craven
Winning goalie: Hextall
Losing goalie: Peeters

Game 5: Capitals 5 - Flyers 2 (box score)

GWG: Hatcher
Winning goalie: Peeters
Losing goalie: Hextall

Game 6: Capitals 7 - Flyers 2 (box score)

GWG: Gustafsson
Winning goalie: Peeters
Losing goalie: Hextall

Game 7: Capitals 5 - Flyers 4 (OT) (box score)

GWG: Hunter
Winning goalie: Peeters
Losing goalie: Hextall

*****

1984: Patrick Division Semifinal

Capitals 3 - Flyers 0

Game 1: Capitals 4 - Flyers 2 (box score)

GWG: Duchesne
Winning Goalie: Riggin
Losing Goalie: Froese

Game 2: Capitals 6 - Flyers 2 (box score)

GWG: Laughlin
Winning goalie: Jensen
Losing goalie: Froese

Game 3: Capitals 5 - Flyers 1 (box score)

GWG: Laughlin
Winning goalie: Jensen
Losing goalie: Froese

Thanks...


Fans cheer for the players. That’s sports.

But thanks are in order to guys who don’t wear jerseys (ok, one who does – occasionally) for this wild ride.

First, thanks to Bruce Boudreau. The guy oozes hockey through his fashion-challenged attire. His old school, “have fun but don’t screw around” tough-love style with the boys, his press-press-and-then-press-some-more approach to the game, his quirky regular guy commentary – often delivered with a twinkle in his eye – was just the thing this group of kids needed at the helm. We didn’t know, when he was named, that he was the best choice to take over for Glen Hanlon (although we thought he’d long deserved a chance behind an NHL bench). We’ve never been so happy to be so utterly wrong.

And while we’re at it, thanks to Glen Hanlon. This year, he was not the best fit for this group at this stage of their development, perhaps. But for the first two years coming out of the lockout, his steady, unflappable style was the right note to sound for a group just getting its feet wet in the NHL.

Thanks to George McPhee, who – in retrospect – won the trading deadline. Kids, this isn’t even close. It is not unreasonable to say that absent the acquisition of Sergei Fedorov, Cristobal Huet, and Matt Cooke, we’re looking forward to the draft this morning, even with the herculean efforts of Boudreau and the boys skating under him. Did Fedorov light up the score sheet? Nope. But he brings so much more than numbers at this point in his career. Alexander Semin seemed to skate in awe of Fedorov in the early games when they were paired, but one can see an improvement in Semin in the weeks since Fedorov was brought in. And it isn’t just Fedorov mentoring the Russians – Ovechkin and Semin. He has the pedigree of a hall of fame-in-waiting career and Stanley Cups (plural) to make sure that when he speaks…well, you listen.

Huet has been nothing short of amazing. His style is not the frantic, happy feet, acrobatic style some goalies have. Watching him is like watching Perlman on the violin. He is equal parts artist and technician. There is so little wasted movement, so little urgency. Wherever he needs to be to make the save, to steer the rebound, to move the puck…he is there. He won’t make SportsCenter with the save of the night. He also hasn’t given up more than three goals in a game (and has given up that many only three times) on his way to an 11-2-0 record in Washington.

Cooke has been every bit the pesky (ok, non-Caps fans, you can say “chippy”), high-energy cruise missle he was advertised as being. Matt Pettinger could not break out of his inexplicable season-long funk, and Cooke coming in as a replacement has been an injection of rocket fuel.

McPhee also had the patience early on to keep Tomas Flesichmann around (by signing him to a contract during camp) and to resist moving Brooks Laich (whose performance made Pettinger expendable). He also had the long-range view in mind in bringing Boudreau into the fold as head-coach in Hershey. We said at the start of the season that this was a “no excuses” season. And we had our eyes focused on McPhee when we said it. Thanks for shoving those two words back in our mouth, George.

And thanks to the guy in the owner’s box wearing the Capitals red last night. Ted Leonsis is one shrewd business man – heaven knows one doesn’t get to his station in life without being one. But as much as that, he expressed an immovable and irrepressible optimism in this team as far back as last summer. He did what he does very well – accentuate the positive and take the long view. He let the hockey people do their jobs, but he was there upon the re-signing of Alex Ovechkin, which acted as a force multiplier to the Capitals’ resurgence…more fans, more wins, more goals, more excitement, and as of this morning…more games to play. Ted is, in many respects, the face of this franchise. His visibility and accessibility – unique among owners in professional sports – puts him in the position of having to take a lot of heat for the performance of his team (on and off the ice), some of which we supplied from time to time. But in the end, Ted can celebrate a division championship team (with more, we hope, to come this season). Given the circumstances and the path the club took to get there, we daresay it might be the most gratifying moment in his tenure. He deserves a big helping of thanks this morning.

Thanks, Bruce…thanks, Glen…thanks, George…thanks, Ted. And thanks to the entire Capitals organization. It only gets better from here.

Uh-huh...uh-huh...


You wanna debate that Hart thing, now??



(AP Photo/Nick Wass)

A PLAYOFF-CLINCHING night: Caps 3 - Panthers 1

Southeast Division Champion

Looks good, doesn’t it?

With a 3-1 decision last night over a game Florida Panther squad, the Caps made their 136-day climb from the low-point of their season complete. The win gave the Caps the division championship and eliminated the Carolina Hurricanes. The Caps now await the results of this afternoon’s action to determine their opponent. It will be either Ottawa or Philadelphia.

Who cares?...They’re in!

It was a perfect storm of events that started the evening – Fan Appreciation Night, Alex Ovechkin Bobblehead Night, and the final, playoff-determining game of the season. It made for a larger-than normal crowd for pre-game warm-up, something we suspect the players noticed when coming out for the pre-game skate.

It was a roller coaster of emotion...and noise. The two games earlier this week were mere prelude to the jet-engine roar of the crowd when the Caps took the ice to start the game. Four years of pent-up frustration and disappointment were unleashed.

The Caps started – perhaps understandably – looking as if they were a bit nervous. Cristobal Huet, who has been a vacuum cleaner of technical skill when it comes to avoiding rebounds, was giving up an uncomfortable number of them in the first period, but the Panthers could not convert. One of the biggest problems the Caps had early in the year – an inability to sweep out the trash – did just that when a puck fluttered out of Huet’s reach.

Hoping for a fast start, the Caps were largely held in check by Florida early, and when they weren’t, the impregnable Craig Anderson (he of the 6-0-0, 1.23, .967 record in his last six appearances) was there to keep the Panther net clean. Then, the bad ice in the right wing corner appeared to come to the Caps’ rescue just past the seven-minute mark. Tomas Fleischmann and Brooks Laich applied a persistent two-man forecheck, and Fleischmann liberated the puck from a Panther along the boards. Laich picked it up and chipped it right back to Fleischmann, who then turned, took a step toward the Panther goal, snapped a wrister, and…whiffed in the mush down in the corner. But the puck lay open for Fleischmann to recover. He walked in, pulled Anderson down to the ice, then stepped around him to flick the puck into the vacant cage to give the Caps the lead.

The Caps might have added to that lead, but Anderson denied Brooks Laich from in close off a nice feed from Alex Ovechkin, and then Ovechkin rang the pipe minutes later.

Then, the roars turned into the muffled rumble of concern almost seven minutes into the second period as the Panthers, on a power play, scored on a chip shot from Kamil Kreps at the goal line near the post to goalie Cristobal Huet’s right. The puck somehow snuck behind Huet hugging the post and inside the far pipe, where it barely crossed the line before coming back out, where play continued. At the next stoppage, the play was reviewed and the goal – correctly – awarded.

Eight minutes later, Mike Green sent the puck ahead to Alexander Semin near the red line in front of the Caps’ penalty box. Semin, with his back to the Panther end, snapped a cross-ice backhand pass to Sergei Fedorov streaking up ice. Fedorov took the puck in stride. With Magnus Johansson desperately trying to close the gap, Fedorov skated in on Anderson and launched a slap shot that beat Anderson over his blocker to give the Caps the lead. It is worth noting that Fedorov started the play by working the puck off of Josef Stumpel’s stick at the Capitals’ blue line and over to Mike Green. He then circled back around the weak side of the play as Green was hooking up with Semin. By the time Florida – specifically Johansson – found him, it was too late.


Early in the third, with Karlis Skrastins off on a hooking penalty for Florida, Fedorov found Nicklas Backstrom in the right wing corner to Anderson’s left. Backstrom, who had the look of a guy at a free-skate passing to his buddy, threaded the puck through three Panthers to Semin just inside the top of the right wing circle. Semin, who had no Panthers around him, loaded the chamber and paused on a slap shot, then fired it over Anderson’s glove and off the pipe to give the Caps insurance.

After that, the Caps played an intelligent “make them skate 200 feet” strategy, making sure that if they didn’t have a clear path into the Panther zone, they got the puck in deep where Florida – who, remember, played the night before – would have to lug it back out. The Panthers couldn’t cope with their own weary legs, the Caps’ forecheck, and the heroics of Huet when they could get the puck into the Caps’ zone, and all that was left was the celebrating at the final horn.

It came at a price, though. Jeff Schultz left the game in the first period with only 6:30 in ice time with an as yet undisclosed injury. He was on the bench in street clothes for the “shirts off our backs” giveaway, but from our perch, looking at the screen as he was removing his jersey, he looked to be in some discomfort.

Looking at the numbers, Semin was all over the scoresheet (no, please tell me I didn’t just type that). Eight shots, which was his high for the year, a goal, a doozy of an assist, three takeaways, and curiously not credited with a hit, even though he was launching his body all over the place.

Fedorov had a goal and an assist as well, and he chipped in a couple of takeaways and was even in 20 draws.

Matt Cooke did a lot of things that didn’t show up on the scoresheet, most notably dogging the Panthers all over the ice, especially on the forecheck. All-in-all, it was a big night for the second line. And that was important on a night when Ovechkin was, comparatively speaking, held more or less in check.

With Schultz out, someone had to pick up the spare minutes, and that fell largely to Tom Poti (27:05, only the second time since January he’s logged more than 26 minutes) and John Erskine (18:00, the most ice time he’s received since getting a lot of clean-up duty in the 10-2 win over Boston on March 3rd).

Steve Eminger had ten minutes of solid hockey with two blocked shots and an “even” rating. That’s seven straight games, dating back to early February (owing to his infrequent appearances), that he’s been even or better. In only four of his last 17 games this year was he on the minus side of the ledger. One of the underappreciated things that happened at the trading deadline is that Eminger was not moved. Although his future here is uncertain, he’s certainly stepped up to do a hard job well – come in after lengthy layoffs and keep the opponent off the scoreboard.

Boyd “Rocky Raccoon” Gordon (who still looks as if someone took a metal pipe to his face) did everything but score…two hits, three takeaways, two blocked shots, and he won 12 of 20 draws.

Give the Panthers credit. They did not merely show up to be a bit player in the Capitals’ starring night. They competed from the drop of the puck. Jay Bouwmeester, who did have a difficult start to the night in taking two first period penalties, had an otherwise solid game overall with an assist, four shots, two hits, and four blocked shots. And it is a pleasure to watch him skate.

Craig Anderson didn’t give any indication that his recent run of superb play was a fluke. The Caps could have put this game away early, but Anderson made several top-notch saves in the first period on his way to a 16 saves-on-17 shots effort to keep things close.

In the end it was a case of the Caps not necessarily being at their sharpest, but playing the sort of game one should play against an opponent in the second half of a back-to-back on the road. Keep pressing until you find a crack, and then exploit it. The last two goals – the Fedorov drive and the Semin slap shot – were scored with Panthers unable to get back into the play. On defense, the insistent forecheck established early paid dividends late as the Panthers looked sluggish trying to lug the puck 200 feet with a two-goal deficit to make up.

On our way into the arena, we saw a young man who had an interesting take on dressing in red. It looked as if he was wearing a crimson graduation gown. If it was, it was prescient. This was the Caps’ graduation to the big time. No longer a doormat, not even a “work in progress” awaiting that day when they could dream of 16 more wins. They are there.

The rebuild is complete.


Saturday, April 05, 2008

One more time for the troops...with some other messages



*****

“Well, boys ... I haven't a thing to say. Played a great game, Thursday...all of you. I'm going to tell you something I've kept to myself for years -- None of you ever knew Kip Miller. It was long before your time. But you know what a tradition he is in Washington...And the last thing he said to me – ‘Rock,’ he said – ‘sometime, when the team is up against it -- and the breaks are beating the boys -- tell them to go out there with all they got and win just one for the Kipper...I don't know where I'll be then, Rock", he said – ‘but I'll know about it - and I'll be happy.’"

-- Knute Rockne

*****



*****

“We shall go on to the end, we shall fight in the offensive zone,
we shall fight on the boards and in the corners,
we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the defensive zone,
we shall defend our ice, whatever the cost may be,
we shall fight at the blue line,
we shall fight in the neutral zone,
we shall fight in the faceoff circles and in the crease,
we shall fight in the slot;
we shall never surrender, and even if, which I do not for a moment believe, this ice or a large part of it were bruised and bleeding, then our Empire beyond 7th Street, armed and guarded by the Capitals, would carry on the struggle, until, in God's good time, the New Capitals, with all their power and might, step forth to the rescue and the liberation of the Stanley Cup.”

-- Winston Churchill

****



*****

"I got a telegram from a lady in Texas today. You know what it said?

' …'I hope the Caps beat those Panther bastards.'"

-- Herb Brooks

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Panthers, April 5th

Already?...we’re to game 82 already?

Seems like last week we were at Kettler for training camp. But here we are, and the ball is on the Caps’ racket…the soup is in their ladle…the [insert your sports metaphor here].

They win, they’re in.

That’s all there is to it. A couple of weeks ago, the thought of putting together a winning streak to end the year and sneak into the playoffs was borderline delusion. Tonight, the Caps need only to assemble a winning streak of one. It’s been a difficult path, the odds of success long, and no one knows more about difficult circumstances and long odds than Leonidas, King of Sparta. Welcome, King…oh, and nice helmet.


“My pleasure…”

You and your army faced long odds once, at Thermopylae. Loved the movie, by the way. Now, how do you inspire your men to deal with such overwhelming odds as you head into battle? What would you tell the Caps tonight as they head onto the ice?

“Spartans…uh, Capitals never retreat! Capitals never surrender! Go spread the word. Let every hockey fan assembled know the truth of this.”

When Florida takes the ice – a team that might have ruined Carolina’s playoff hopes last night – what goes through your mind?

“Give them nothing! But take from them everything!”

It will probably be a hard fight…the Panthers will certainly want to end the season on a high note…how do you deal with adversity in that situation? When they charge, how do you respond?

“I tell the men, ‘This is where we hold them! This is where we fight! This is where they die!’”

Sounds like pretty strong stuff…

“Yeah, well…if you think this is strong, you ought to hear my wife when I get home from battle all sweaty and covered in blood…”

What do you say to the Caps’ nervous fans who will be looking on?

“Children, gather round! No retreat, no surrender; that is Capitals law. And by Capitals law we will stand and fight... and win. A new age has begun. An age of playoffs, and all will know, that 20 Capitals gave their last breath to achieve it!”

Not long ago, the thought of playoffs was madness…

..madness?!...THIS…IS…WASHINGTON!!!

Well, it will probably be madness in Washington tonight as Verizon Center turns once more into a sea of red. But it will not be easy, despite the fact that their opponent – the Florida Panthers – was eliminated from playoff contention several games ago.

We covered the recent trends of the Panthers not too long ago, and not much has changed…except, of course, their doing the Caps the favor of knocking off Carolina last night.

This game is much like that for the Caps-Lightning contest on Thursday. We should “expect” the Caps to win because they’re better…


…but again – like the Tampa Bay example – there is that special teams thing. The Panthers have compiled a somewhat better special teams set of numbers this year. And Florida has a better defense than Tampa Bay brought to the party on Thursday.

As far as the more recent history of these teams is concerned…

The Caps once more have the edge, but it is not an overwhelming one.

Washington might be catching a bit of a break in this one. Florida played last night, doing the Caps the favor of beating Carolina, 4-3. In doing so, the Panthers had to endure nine shorthanded situations (they had no power plays of their own), including a pair of 3-on-5 situations. And, Caps’ nemesis Tomas Vokoun had to leave the game after the first 20 minutes with back spasms. Craig Anderson filled in more than capably, allowing only two goals on 28 shots. Anderson is no slouch…including last night’s save in relief of Vokoun, he is 6-0-0 in his last six games, 1.23, .967, and two shutouts. But, where Vokoun was the only goalie of record against the Caps this year, compiling a 4-3-0 mark, Anderson has not faced the Caps at all this year and is 0-2-0 in his career against Washington.

This is, in likelihood, going to be the Caps’ seventh full house in the last 11 home games and fourth in a row. It’ll be a sea of red, and as we know, “red” means “stop”…as in “stop the playoff drought.”

Any last words, King?

“Unless I miss my guess, we're in for one wild night.”

Caps 4 – Panthers 1

Lead the cheers, King…

Florida-Carolina Quiz

Notice anything especially odd about this result?...


If 'Canes fans complain about the officiating in this one, they ought to be flogged.

Friday, April 04, 2008

The first round of the playoffs

For the Capitals, the first round of the playoffs doesn’t start next week, it ends tomorrow night.

Since the trading deadline, the Caps have faced, if not an insurmountable climb, then certainly an uphill one just to make the “final eight” in the East. Theirs has been – to employ an NCAA basketball tournament analogy – an 18 game “play-in” round that started at the trading deadline. And that round ends tomorrow with the Caps taking a 13-4-0 record into what amounts to an elimination game.

While some (certainly not Matt Cooke, who saw what Edmonton did a couple of years ago) might argue that such a long slog wears on a team and renders it spent for the Stanley Cup tournament, it is just as plausible that the white-hot crucible in which they’ve played has readied the Caps for the sort of tense, hard-fought, don’t-take-a-shift-off sort of grind that marks the two months of Stanley Cup play.

What sort of team do the Caps take into the elimination game and, hopefully, the next round? Well, the first order of business is to dispel a widely-held (even among many Caps fans) myth.

Myth: The Capitals are a weak defensive team.

Truth: The Capitals have allowed a total of 33 goals in the last 17 games – 1.94 goals per game. They have been especially strong at even strength, allowing only 17 non-empty net, even strength goals – one a game. Four of those came in a single game – the 5-0 shutout in Chicago on March 19th. Whether the stinginess is a product of Cristobal Huet’s arrival; the light going on over the head of some young defensemen like Jeff Schultz, Shaone Morrisonn, or Milan Jurcina; a product of the next progression in team development (now that they seem to have mastered Bruce Boudreau’s offensive system); or just plain luck, the fact is that this is a very good defensive team.

Here is another way to look at it…the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils are the top defensive teams in the East (2.31 and 2.35 goals per game for the season, respectively). The Rangers have allowed 32 goals in 16 games since the trading deadline (2.00/game), the Devils 41 in 16 (2.56).

Here are some other things to ponder…

Consistency...There is what is embedded in that 13-4-0 record…in 51 regulation periods of hockey, the Caps have “won” 21 periods and “tied” 21 others. They have lost only nine periods of hockey in 17 games. They haven’t lost a period of hockey since the first period of their 3-2 shootout win in Carolina on March 25th. That’s 14 consecutive periods of hockey without a loss.

A rising tide lifts all boats…That Alex Ovechkin has raised his game as the season reaches its climax is not exactly news. But it’s had a curious effect on the rest of the club…they’ve come along for the ride. Consider the following table…


Yes, Ovechkin has ramped up his goal scoring – a quarter of a goal a game since the trading deadline. Well, so has the rest of the team. They are keeping pace by adding another quarter of a goal a game to account for the rest of the Caps’ 0.50 goal a game improvement on offense. Ovechkin might be the star, but he’s not a solo act.

The Caps do not come about their 13-4-0 record by way of fluke or by virtue of a mere “hot streak.” They have been consistently good over the last 60 games – 36-17-7 (a 108-point pace). They have improved on that in the 17 games…for the Capitals, what has amounted to the first round of the playoffs. And they’ve done it with solid, consistent, often dominating hockey.

A TWO-point night!...Caps 4 - Lightning 1


…and one to go.

In a game that was several separate and distinct games, the Caps ground out a 60-minute, 4-1 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning that started oddly, took a boring turn, had some nervous moments for the home crowd – on the ice and on the scoreboard, paid homage to the virtues of persistence, and then got stupid, courtesy of a gutless coach whose tough guy act has gotten stale.

In the first act of this production, the Caps looked to run the Lightning right out of the building, after the Lightning popped the home team in the nose with a goal at 39 seconds. Filip Kuba swatted in a loose puck that Cristobal Huet could not find at the top of his crease, and the lively crowd settled into a hushed, nervous silence.

The Caps then proceeded to outshoot the Lightning, 17-2, over the next 11:22, culminating in a goal by Alex Ovechkin – his 64th of the season – that gave him the all time single season goal scoring record for left wingers (Luc Robitaille previously holding the record at 63). The goal was not a signature wrist shot, it wasn’t a deke and a roofed backhand, it wasn’t a one-timer…it was a crash-the-net, poke-at-it, two-cushion bank shot off both Kuba and Alexandre Picard, and behind goalie Karri Ramo. Years from now, it will be described as an end-to-end rush.

That goal might have taken the starch out of the Lightning. It had a different effect – the Caps seeming to go into a shell after the tying marker. For the next 35:49 from the tying goal and well into the third period, the teams split a total of 26 shots evenly, none of them finding the back of the net. The excitement – and not the sort Caps fans wanted to comtemplate – came when Ovechkin dipped to one knee to block a shot. He took the drive off the outside of his right knee and skated off. After testing his leg during a stoppage in play, he turned down the tunnel and was not on the bench for the last minute of the period. It wasn’t a good sign.

However, Ovechkin came out for the third, and as it turned out, would not suffer the most noteworthy injury. 6:45 into the period, as Vincent Lecavalier was skating up ice abreast and inside of Michel Ouellet in front of the Lightning bench, he was hit firmly by Matt Cooke. Lecavalier was rocked backwards and into Ouellet, upon which Lecavalier fell to the ice awkwardly. He was down for several minutes, not moving from the fetal position in which he found himself. He was eventually helped to his skates by the trainer and teammates, skating off with assistance and unable to straighten up. It appeared to be an injury to his right shoulder.

Less than a minute later, Jussi Jokinen tried to answer the question, how many times can I cross-check their star until I get called for it? After several attempts at abusing Ovechkin, he was whistled for a penalty. 24 seconds later, Ovechkin made the Lightning pay, taking a cross-ice feed from Mike Green at the top of the left wing circle and snapping a wrist shot over Ramo’s blocker, leaving the goalie to turn to a teammate and just shrug in resignation…there wasn’t much he could do about it.

Boyd Gordon provided additional insurance with a nice backhand lifted over Ramo with 3:17 left. It was a nice reward for some hard work he did in the corners just before darting to the net to convert a rebound of a shot off the stick of Matt Bradley.

Tom Poti ended the fun with a 140 foot lob down the ice that settled softly into the empty Lightning net with 1:08 to go.

Then things got stupid. John Tortorella, who seems to have tried to adopt the “Tony Montana” school of coaching in the years since he coached the Lightning to a Stanley Cup, announced to the Caps in the final minute, “you wanna #@$& with me? Okay. You wanna play rough? Okay. Say hello to my little friends!”…upon which Doug Janik took a run at Tomas Fleischmann, and Junior Lessard squared off with Matt Bradley (who abused Lessard rather severely). Janik was whistled for roughing and a misconduct, Lessard went off with his fighting major, and Nick Tarnasky and Jason Ward were sent off with misconducts of their own for good measure. 37 minutes in penalties to make a point, with the object of the exercise presumably having been…Tomas Fleischmann? Tortorella said after the game, "It's good stuff as far as after Vinny and the stuff at the end of the game as far as trying to help one another out."

Uh, yeah…whatever. Good luck with that lottery thing.

As far as the numbers go, the noteworthy ones at the top are minutes. Kudos to Steve Eminger for stepping in for injured Shaone Morrisonn and giving a good account of himself in his nine minutes of ice time. It might not have been a lot, but if he’d made a mistake our there – considering the stakes in this game – he’d have been fitted for goat horns right quick. And to Jeff Schultz, who ended up skating more than 23 minutes, playing the “I got your back” role Morrisonn usually plays for Mike Green.

Tom Poti registered a season-high six shots on goal. He finally scored on the last one.

Matt Bradley…two shots, an assist, three hits, a takeaway, a blocked shot, and a fight. He was a busy fella for his 13:43.

Boyd Gordon looked like he was wearing a tinted visor…he wasn’t. It just looked like he had a bruised…uh, face.

Say what you want, but Karri Ramo probably deserved better than to go 0-2-1 against the Caps this year. He had a superb game tonight, keeping the Lightning in it with top-notch saves on Matt Cooke, Eric Fehr, and Ovechkin, among others, and giving up only a single goal while getting shelled with 20 shots in the first period.

Necessity being the mother of invention, Mike Green was more or less forced to log 2:10 in penalty killing time tonight (the injury to Morrisonn giving birth to the necessity). Why is that noteworthy?...he’s averaging 20 seconds of penalty killing time a game this year.

No Cap had a losing record in the circle tonight (33 wins in 54 total draws – 61.1 percent).

Matt Cooke had six hits tonight. He was a heat-seeking missle on the forecheck tonight, forcing the Lightning into quicker decisions than they might otherwise have liked to take.

Can you tell the stakes are high?...Milan Jurcina digging after a puck sliding down the ice, then diving and sweeping it away from a Tampa player deep in the Caps’ end…Matt Bradley laying out to block a drive…Ovechkin taking one off his knee…

…although there was some comic relief…Cristobal Huet stepping out far from his crease to try to play a puck, falling down not once, but twice on his way to the puck. He thought better of the exercise and returned to the familiar embrace of his crease.

…and Karri Ramo doing something similar, darting out to try to play a puck as it was sliding into the corner…looking up, not finding a trapezoid…and thinking, “this is not good,” letting the puck go by and avoiding the penalty.

Mathieu Darche was an equal-opportunity loser in the faceoff circle. He was 0-for-7, failing to win a draw against four different Caps (Fedorov, Laich, Backstrom, and Gordon). Jeff Halpern wasn’t much better…1-for-8.

Oh, and if yo're wondering, the waving off of the Brooks Laich goal was the right call (sure, you can say that now...the Caps won)...Tomas Fleischmann pushed the defenseman into the goaltender, creating an opportunity for Laich.

The Caps can now finish anywhere from sixth to ninth. If Boston beats Ottawa in regulation tomorrow night and loses to Buffalo in regulation on Saturday, the Flyers do no better than split their remaining two games against New Jersey (tomorrow) and Pittsburgh (Sunday), and the Caps win on Saturday, the Caps finish sixth. We won’t discuss the “ninth-place” scenario…

Put more simply…”win, and you’re in…probably…we hope.”

…and one to go.

Thursday, April 03, 2008

It's time...

...for the return of...




RALLY PIGEON!!!

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lightning, April 3rd

Ever watch the movie, “Field of Dreams?” In it, there is an exchange between our hero, “John Kinsella” and his partner-of-sorts, “Terrence Mann,” that goes like this…

Kinsella: "There comes a time when all the cosmic tumblers have clicked into place...and the universe opens itself up for a few seconds to show you what's possible."

To this, Mann responds incredulously...

“Oh my God…you’re from the sixties!”

Well, that’s what immediately came to mind when the final horn sounded last night in the Penguins 4-2 win over the Flyers. The cosmic tumblers have clicked into place, making it possible for the Caps to seize a top-eight spot with a win tonight against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

We’re just not of a mind that it’s “destiny” or “cosmic tumblers,” or any of that sixties or new-age crap. The Caps still have to go out and win the damned game.

And that brings us to today’s lesson…the difference between “expect” and “assume.”

The Peerless “expects” the Caps to win…why?

Well, the Caps are better…



…but not so much that there isn’t danger in this game. Tampa has – over the course of the season – had the better special teams play, and that could be a factor of no advantage to the Caps. But that brings us to the recent play of these teams. Let’s look at the last ten…



Again…the Caps have the better record – by far – but not so much that the path isn’t dangerous. Tampa Bay has had – again – the superior special teams play.

There is also the mysterious case of Vincent Lecavalier. Last summer, Lecavalier had an arthroscopic procedure on his wrist to clean up some “loose ends.” Well, maybe – as an article in the St. Petersburg Times by Damian Cristodero suggests – there is more. Certainly his numbers suggest something wrong. Looking at Lecavalier’s production by month…


…he had almost 28 percent of his points (through March) in November, after which he was 24-28-52, -23 through March 31st. Clearly, something is wrong for his production to have dropped off so markedly. But even with that, however, there is danger in this game. Lecavalier has had a fine career record against the Caps – 24-27-51, -4 in 51 games, and he’s 4-7-11, -2 in seven games this year. He is still a dangerous commodity.

Speaking of this year, there is still the matter of the diminutive one – Martin St. Louis…3-5-8, +1, in seven games. And, Jeff Halpern is 10-8-18, +4 in 17 games since joining the Lightning. Tampa might be wounded, but they certainly aren’t dead.

As much as, if not more so, than the game against the Hurricanes on Tuesday, the Caps have to stay out of the penalty box. If they do that, it is reasonable to “expect” a win.

Just don’t get into the idea of “assuming” a win. Teams out of the playoff hunt still play for pride and an opportunity to play “spoiler,” and that kind of motivation should never be taken lightly. If you assume…that Tampa will come in unmotivated, tired (after losing to Carolina last night, 6-2), hampered by playing another road game (they are 11-22-6 on the road)…that the Caps are somehow destined to win, that they need merely show up, that Ovechkin will score, that Huet will repel all the shots, that the grinders will grind, the checkers check, the defenders defend…well, that’s the stuff of which disappointments are made.

It’ll be another scarlet tsunami at Verizon Center tonight, no doubt, and the Caps have come too far to let things slip away now. A win would vault them into no worse than seventh place (ahead of Boston, by virtue of having more wins), and into sixth (ahead of Ottawa, by virtue of having taken the season series) if the Senators lose in regulation at Toronto this evening. Those are the stakes – mighty high indeed -- but the Caps have earned their shot at it. We expect them to take advantage…

Caps 5 – Lightning 2

Wednesday, April 02, 2008

Mosesvechkin

"...lift thou up thy hockey stick, and stretch out thine hand over the ice, and divide it: and the hockey team of Washington shall go on to the playoffs through the midst of the sea of fans dressed in red."




ok, ok...it's a bit much.

My, but how far they've come

The Caps stand on the brink of a return to the playoffs. They have played at a 107-point pace since Thanksgiving. They are 9-1-0 in their last ten games. Simply put, they are -- right now -- a good and dangerous hockey team.

Not bad for a club that was all but an expansion team that headed into the lockout. Consider this comparison...the team that took the ice on the last day of the 2003-2004 season and the squad that took the ice last night against Carolina:


These rosters come from ESPN.com, and it looks as if they missed someone in that final game of 2004 (maybe it was Alexander Semin), but you get the point. Looking at that 2004 season-ending roster, how many of those players do you think could have dressed for the Caps last night?