The 2007-2008 season, by the "tens" -- Wingers: Viktor Kozlov

And now, in the parade of wingers…

Viktor Kozlov

Theme: “Sitting quietly, doing nothing, spring comes and the grass grows by itself”

That is an old Zen proverb, and in a peculiar way applies to Viktor Kozlov. A player of considerable natural skill, Kozlov has had the look of an underachiever often in his career. Coming into the season, he averaged 19-34-53, +1, per-82 games over his 12 seasons with four teams. One thinks he could average five more goals and ten more assists than that. The thinking was that pairing him with the likes of Alex Ovechkin could awaken a slumbering giant…or at least get him to approach his thought-of potential. What did he finish with? 16-38-54…pretty close to his 82-game averages.

In fact, Kozlov’s 2007-2008 season was of the consistency that marked Ovechkin’s only writ smaller…

In every ten-game split, from five to nine points…in every one scoring 1-3 goals (except for a five-goal outburst fueled by a pair of two-goal performances that included a power play goal in each instance – his only power play goals and multi-goal games of the year)…a couple of penalty minutes or so. His longest points-scoring streak was a modest four games (achieved three times). His longest streak without a point was four games (in October). There simply wasn’t anything that jumped out of his ten-game splits.

There was that +28, though. He was+30 over his final 59 games, with only ten games in the minus column. Only twice in those last 59 games did he have as many as two minus games in any three. One could argue that such a result was a product of playing alongside Ovechkin (himself a plus-28). Well, perhaps. Or did his style of play – one that did not lend itself to statistical gratification – complement Ovechkin’s style to permit such production?

There is one other matter. Loathe as we are to even discuss the concept, Kozlov was brought here in part to address a glaring shortcoming the Caps had last year – achieving success in the Gimmick. Coming into the season, Kozlov was 13-of-25 in shootout attempts (52 percent). Seven of those goals were game-winners. This year, Kozlov connected on three of seven attempts, one of them being a game-winner. Part of the result is the product of the Caps only participating in eight Gimmicks this year (only four teams participated in fewer). The best that might be said for Kozlov's shootout performance is that it was the same as that achieved by Daniel Briere (ok, Alexander Semin, too...three-for-seven).

From observing him over those 81 games, it appears as if Kozlov simply doesn’t have enough selfishness in his game to ever realize the potential others might have seen for him. But that does not make him a bad fit for this team. He plays a quiet, mindful game that does not appear much in the usual statistical measures to which folks pay attention. He is very adept at lugging the puck and maintaining control of it when closely marked by defenders. He is patient in the offensive zone and acts as a “cool” counterpart to the radiant energy that Ovechkin emits. While not a grinder in the usual sense of the term, he still does a lot of the dirty work in steering the puck into position for others to work their magic.

In an odd sense, he is something of the forward version of former Cap defenseman Joe Reekie. It might have been said of Reekie that he didn’t have particularly noteworthy statistics, but he consistently put up year after year of “plus” seasons (13 straight). Kozlov put up game after game of “plus” results, despite his own statistics not being of elite stature. Was he along for the ride? Or a quiet cog in the machine? Whatever…despite his relatively quiet statistical line and frustratingly lethargic-at-times pace, he was there for many more good things than bad in the Caps’ rush to the playoffs. He has the look of a player who could have much more of an effect on a game, but who seems comfortable (perhaps too much so) with the game he has come to play.

Next year will be an interesting one for Kozlov -- a contract year and one for which there are likely to be greater expectations for the club. But for this year, it is hard to give him a poor grade and hard to give him a high one. We’ll settle for a bit above average…

B-

Gold looks good on red

The Russians pulled it off. Down 4-2 to Canada after Dany Heatley scored a goal mid-way through the second period of the World Hockey Championship final, the Russians stormed back to tie the game late in the third period on a goal by Ilya Kovalchuk. Then, with Rick Nash in the penalty box for the Canadians after taking a delay-of-game penalty, the Russians completed the comeback on a power play goal by Kovalchuk 2:42 in overtime to capture the title, 5-4.

It capped a spectacular tournament for the Russians on the Capitals' roster -- Alexander Semin, Alex Ovechkin, and Sergei Fedorov. Combined, they finished their nine-game journey as follows:

Semin: 6-7-13, +11
Ovechkin: 6-6-12, +11
Fedorov: 5-7-12, +10

That's 17 of the 43 goals Russia scored in the tournament...

...and, of course, the championship. As far as Capitals represented in the tournament are concerned, Ovechkin and Mike Green (CAN) were named to the all-tournament team -- Green finished 4-8-12, +2 in nine games.

In the final, Alexander Semin had two goals and an assist, Ovechkin had a pair of assists, and Fedorov also had a pair of assists (including the primary on the game-winner). Green had an assist for the Canadians.

Any tournament experience these young players can get can only help them in their quest for a Stanley Cup. Ovechkin remarked after the win that "We played hard through the whole tournament. This gold medal is the biggest thing that’s ever happened to me."

Next year, we hope he can repeat that sentiment wearing a Capitals jersey.

The big finish...



...and other highlights





Photo: IIHF/HHoF/Jukka Rautio

The 2007-2008 season, by the "tens" -- Wingers: Brooks Laich

Next up in the look at wingers…

Brooks Laich

Theme: “Our brightest blazes of gladness are commonly kindled by unexpected sparks.”

Samuel Johnson was an 18^th century essayist, not a hockey player (he might have been a power forward if he was), but his quote certainly applies to Brooks Laich, hockey player. Laich is perhaps the unexpected feel-good story of the Capitals this year. Laich was awarded a $725,000 contract in arbitration last July and came to training camp as one of many players out of the same mold – grinders for third or fourth line duty – fighting for a spot on the roster. That he might be moved wasn’t exactly an original thought.

When the curtain fell on the 2007-2008 regular season, Laich played in all 82 games (one of only four Caps to do so), was the team’s sixth leading scorer (tied with Michael Nylander), was its third leading power play goal scorer (tied with Mike Green), and was its second leading game-winning goal scorer (tied with Green and Nicklas Backstrom). Tell us you saw that coming when the season started, and you can take the name “Peerless Prognosticator.”

The thing is, though, through 60 games you still might not have seen it coming...

Through those first 60 games he was a respectable 9-8-17, -4 – not bad for a third/fourth line forward on a team on the playoff margin. But those last 22 games…12-8-20, +1, and a pair of game-winning goals. He became the club’s sharpshooter over that last stretch, scoring those 12 goals on a total of 46 shots (26.1%). And, he was something of a power play terror, netting seven power play goals over those last 22 games.

And it wasn’t as if Laich was a one-note wonder. Here is perhaps an interesting number to ponder…Laich was credited with at least one point against every team in the Eastern Conference except Montreal. For an Alex Ovechkin, you would expect that sort of thing (yes, he did score against every team in the East), but for a player with only 37 points all year, that is rather unexpected.

If there was one adjective to describe Laich this year, it would be “versatile." In addition to the power play prowess he exhibited in the last quarter of the season, he could play any of the forward positions. We describe him here as a winger, but he took almost 600 draws this year in seeing substantial time at center (47.2 percent wins). He also led the forwards in blocked shots this year (56…ok, Quintin Laing had only four fewer in 43 fewer games) and was fifth among forwards in hits.

What makes his production especially noteworthy is that Laich was 12^th on the team in ice time, among players who played in at least half of the Caps’ games this year. In this respect he benefitted from the coaching change in a rather substantial way. In the first 21 games of the year, he averaged only about 11:50/game – five times he skated for less than ten minutes. Over the last 61 games he averaged about 14:50/game and only skated fewer than 12 minutes only three times. Part of this was out of necessity (the minutes vacated by Nylander went he went on injured reserve had to be made up), part the result of some solid play.

Laich’s season is that of the Capitals in miniature. Not especially highly thought of when the season began, he struggled with ice time and production early, then got a life when the club made a change behind the bench. The spark he got helped give the Caps a boost in the last 60 games of the season, during which his production improved dramatically, especially over those frantic last 20 games. That is would be Laich who might be called the club’s most pleasant surprise this year is most unexpected. It is with that in mind that we’re inclined to grade him rather highly…

A-

The 2007-2008 season, by the "tens" -- Wingers: Alexander Semin

Moving on with the wingers, we take a look at…

Alexander Semin

Theme: “The key to everything is patience. You get the chicken by hatching the egg, not by smashing it.”

So said Arnold H. Glasgow. He could have been thinking of our subject. Alexander Semin is one of the most gifted skaters, puck handlers, passers, and shooters one is ever going to want to see on ice. He can be Baryshnikov on skates.

He also can drive a fan nuts.

Last year, Semin provided a long look for fans at what he could be…38-35-73 in 77 games. This year, however, was largely one of frustration for Semin, a product of a combination of injury, a lack of punch and consistency on the second line on which he played, and a lack of discipline from night to night on his part. If one looks at his ten-game splits, he was himself somewhat consistent…

* three games

Except for a sluggish start (perhaps a product of an ankle injury) and better-than-average 21-30 game production, Semin was a 5-8 point player over his ten-game stretches. But Semin also expressed a certain consistency that exasperated fans and, no doubt, coaches.

First, there is the matter of penalties. In his first 40 games, Semin had 10-8-10-12 minutes in penalties, all minors. And it is not as if the majority of those penalties were those of aggression. Ten of the 20 minors he took in those games were hooking penalties. Add in a trip and a holding-the-stick, and 12 of the 20 minors were obstruction-type calls. A lingering effect of the injury, preventing him from keeping up with the opposition? Or laziness on his part in defending?

Over his last 23 games of the year, though, he exhibited considerably more discipline, committing only seven minors (three hooks, four roughing calls…that’s right, roughing penalties).

Fortunately for the Caps, it hardly seemed to matter in terms of wins and losses. When Semin was committing those 20 minors in his first 40 games, the Caps were 9-7-1. In the last 23, when he committed only seven minors, the Caps were 3-2-1. One wonders, though…with a little more discipline over longer stretches of time, and Semin spending more time on the ice, would the club do better? Well, we got a glimpse of that over a 15 game stretch in February and March. From February 23^rd through March 21^st, the Caps played 15 games. Semin was whistled for a total of two minors over that stretch. The Caps went 9-5-1 and lost both games in which Semin had his penalties (to Pittsburgh and Chicago). We will not go so far as to offer a cause-and-effect relationship here, but it’s better for Semin to be on the ice than off it, especially when he’s taking himself off for ticky-tack obstruction-type calls.

The other matter is his plus-minus number. In none of his three seasons with the club has Semin been a “plus” player. He will never be a finalist for the Selke Trophy for best defensive forward. He won’t be a Selke finalist unless the list is expanded to 200 players or there is an act of God. But -18 in 63 games is a bit much, especially on a team that earned 94 points. He was not worst on the team – Michael Nylander was -19 in 40 games – but Nylander had the explanation of: a) being new to his teammates, and b) not being able to compete at full strength for the last stretch of games he played as a result of his shoulder injury. In Semin’s six full ten-game stretches, he was a “minus” player five times. In those 60 games, he was a minus player 24 times, a plus player 12 times. From February 20^th through March 29^th, he went 19 consecutive games without finishing on the plus side of the ledger. The Caps were 12-5-2 over that stretch (Semin was 8-4-12 in scoring over those games).

If there is something on which one can point to as a good sign moving forward, it is in the progress (of a sort) that Semin made in his last 18 games. Looked at as a whole, he was 7-5-12, -6…not especially impressive. But break up those games into thirds. In the first third (six games), he was 2-3-5, -3. He followed that up with a 1-1-2, -5 over his middle third. He finished up with 4-1-5, +2 in his last six games. Why do we pick this 18-game stretch? It corresponds with the arrival of Sergei Fedorov from Columbus. Centered mostly by Fedorov over this stretch, Semin appeared early on to play in awe of his linemate – too much so. Semin looked rather confused in the offensive end, looking to pass a little too much (he had only ten shots in the first six games of that 18-game run). He started shooting the puck more in the middle third (20 shots) and finally seemed to reach a comfort level with Fedorov in the last six games. No player seemed to be affected – good and bad – by Federov’s arrival than Semin, and with the way the youngster closed the season, it appears Fedorov had a positive effect on him. Whether that carries over to next season as a general maturation of Semin’s play, or whether it requires the presence of a Fedorov (who is an unrestricted free agent) will be one of the big questions for the team heading into the 2008-2009 season.

What consistency Semin exhibited this year was largely of the negative sort – his penalty-taking and struggles on defense. He has given the appearance at times, of being lazy (the hooking penalties is a representative example), or immature or undisciplined (retaliatory roughing penalties). He is, however, a gifted offensive player who is perhaps more of a highlight-reel threat every time he touches the puck than Alex Ovechkin. He has the potential to be a consistent 40-plus goal scorer annually. He can be a thrilling player to watch and an exasperating one, too. He showed signs late in the season of being able to deal with these demons, and the issue becomes one of patience. With the first year of a two-year, $9.2 million deal kicking in next year, much will be expected of Semin. Those expectations will include an ability to play with more maturity and consistency. He has tested the patience of those around the club in his tenure here. Hopefully, next season, this egg is going to hatch.

For this year though, owning to his inconsistency and troubles in his own end, we would give Semin a…

C

The 2007-2008 season, by the "tens" -- Wingers: Alex Ovechkin

And now, we move to the wingers, leading off with…

Alex Ovechkin

Theme: “I am constant as the northern star…

…Of whose true-fix'd and resting quality
There is no fellow in the firmament."

In its original context, the quote from Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar is meant to convey the hubris of Caesar. Here, it is merely acknowledgment of the fact that Alex Ovechkin is not only arguably the best player in the hockey firmament, but its most consistently elite player.

We’ve made a point of noting his remarkable consistency, and this year was certainly in that mold…

There is more to it than these ten-game splits…only twice did he go more than one game without a point, only once with a three-game pointless streak. In only one ten-game split this season did he go as many as five games without a point (January 29 – February 16, during which he was otherwise 9-4-13, including a five-point game against Montreal). His lowest goal-scoring total in any ten-game split this year was six, in the first ten-game stretch of the year (during which the Caps as a team, scored only 24 goals).

There is a certain superficial aspect to focusing only on Ovechkin’s scoring. Ovechkin was a 96-point player last year and was -19. This year, Ovechkin had 112 points and was +28. The 16-point increase in scoring doesn't explain the 47-point plus-minus turnaround. More to the point, he was a “minus” player in 37 games last year, a “plus” player for only 27 games. This year, he was on the “plus” side of the ledger for 34 games, a minus player for only 19 games. Last year, the longest streak Ovechkin had as an even-or-better player was five games (three times). This year, he had a 15-game streak (December 22 – January 24) and closed the regular season with 11 of 12 games at even or better. Perhaps not coincidentally, that coincided with the Caps’ 11-1-0 finish to reach the playoffs.

And Ovechkin is hardly a scorer of the effete species. Ovechkin ranked sixth among forwards this year in total hits (220). However there are two things to note about Ovechkin compared to the five players ahead of him. First, can hitters score? Looking at the top-ten players in hits, here is how they rank in terms of a ratio of points-to-hits:

Second, can hitters play within the rules in plying their craft? Here is how the top ten players in hits rank in a ratio of hits to penalty minutes (minutes for fighting majors deleted from the PIM totals):

Ovechkin is a scorer who plays a physical game within the rules. The critical reader might ask whether Ovechkin gets a star player’s break on penalties, which would influence the hits-to-penalty minutes results. He might, but even if one makes allowances for star treatment – if you doubled his PIMs, for example -- he still would rank in the top ten in this measure.

There are subtle measures of Ovechkin’s effectiveness this year. Let’s look at the top ten scorers this year and the most basis statistic there is…goals for versus goals against. Here is how they rank in terms of ratio of total goals scored to total goals allowed when they were on the ice:

Even if you take away special teams goals (power play goals for and against when they were on the ice), Ovechkin is a top-five player by this measure and virtually indistinguishable from the three players ahead of him:

One could make the argument that this reflects better players around Ovechkin this year, and this would be true. But if you’re going to make that argument, then do you discount Datsyuk, who plays for a loaded lineup? Please note, you fans of Evgeni Malkin as a Hart Trophy candidate, Ovechkin’s marks – in total and at even-strength – are superior to those of Malkin by rather significant margins.

The answer to the central question surrounding Ovechkin as the season was winding down addressed a wider set of issues surrounding the player. The question was, “is a player on club failing to reach the playoffs worthy of selection as a Hart Trophy (most valuable player) winner?”

Well, Ovechkin – in the last 12 games of the year – was 11-6-17, +13, with four power play goals, two game winners, three game-tying goals (in Capitals wins), two game-winning assists, and a game-tying assist (in a Capitals win). In the 11-1 stretch to end the year, Ovechkin had a hand in four game-winning goals and in four game-tying goals. Even accounting for overlap – having a hand in the game-tying and game winning goals in the same game (accomplished three times in those 12 games) – Ovechkin was in the mix in five of the 11 wins. But the stunning number isn’t on the offensive side of the ledger. Of the 22 goals allowed by the Caps in the last 12 games, Ovechkin was on the ice for four of them, and never more than one in any single game. True, Ovechkin is not often matched against an opponent’s top offensive players, but this is a player thought until this year to be a defensive liability (there is that -19 of last year to remember).

As consistent as Ovechkin has been in his young career, he elevated his game when it mattered, when the Caps were facing what amounted to a single elimination tournament in the last two weeks of the season.

Ovechkin already has the Ross (top scorer) and Richard (to goal scorer) trophies for his mantel. He should win the Hart (league MVP) and Pearson (outstanding player) trophies to complete the set for the 2007-2008 season. One cannot help but give him the highest grade for this season:

A+

An Outdoor Classic?...Here?

As reported in Capital Spirit, there are rumors that feelers have been put out concerning the Caps hosting an outdoor game at FedEx Field. January in Washington can have somewhat unpredictable weather, but we have it on good authority that Reebok is already in the testing phase for their new "Outdoor Performance System" to cope with conditions not usually conducive to pond hockey...

The 2007-2008 season, by the "tens" -- Centers: David Steckel

The look at the centers for this year ends with…

David Steckel

Theme: “all the world’s a stage”

Once upon a time, David Steckel was a first round draft pick of the Los Angeles Kings – selected 30^th overall in 2001, ahead of fellow Kings’ draft picks Mike Cammalleri (49^th) and a young goalie from St. Martin d’Heres, France, named Cristobal Huet (214^th). At the time, he was the 16^th-rated North American prospect according to Central Scouting and was described by Kings general manager Dave Taylor as having “good size, excellent hockey sense, and a great work ethic…we view him as a power forward.”

The path to “power forward” took a bit of a detour. After completing two more years at Ohio State, he turned pro and joined the Manchester Monarchs in the AHL, where he was 10-7-17 in 63 games. It was not, apparently, good enough to be re-signed by the Kings, and Steckel signed as a free agent with the Capitals in 2005. Playing mostly in Hershey in his first two years, Steckel posted good (95 points in 145 games) if not spectacular numbers for a two-time Calder Cup finalist team (winning the championship in 2006). This year, after re-signing with the Caps as a restricted free agent, he would stick with the parent club as a defensive specialist getting third and fourth line duty.

As one might expect from a player playing the role of third line defensive specialist, the ten-game splits for Steckel are rather unspectacular.

* seven games

But here, too, there is the effect of a new coach, one for whom Steckel played while in Hershey. Again, the change wasn’t spectacular, but was noticeable, even though his time on ice remained at about 13-and-a-half minutes a game. For example, from barely shooting the puck in the first 20 games (ten shots total), he was getting more opportunities in the offensive end after the coaching change. His scoring reflected the increased attention – from 1-0-1 in his first 20 games to 4-7-11 in his last 47.

The odd thing about his scoring, though, was his performance against Tampa Bay. If he had results like 4-2-6, +4, in six games against the rest of the league…

Where Steckel shined was in the game’s most fundamental task – faceoffs. He led all rookies (among those taking at least 500 draws) in faceoff winning percentage (56.3 percent). He was also trusted to perform the task. He was third among all rookies (again, those taking at least 500 draws) in percentage of team faceoffs taken (23.3 percent). He was 50 percent or better on draws in 46 of the 67 games in which he played.

Steckel played the role of a specialist. It is perhaps one far removed from that which might have been envisioned for him when he was drafted. But he played that role very well, and there is evidence in his minor league career that there is more of a scorer there than met the eye this year (he had 30 goals in 71 games at Hershey in 2006-2007). On a team that emphasized the attack after the coaching change, Steckel was a defense and penalty killing oriented player. He played those roles very well. For that, we’d give a grade of…

B

The fork in the road

I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.

As the Stanley Cup playoffs proceed, some of the other clubs in the NHL seems to be at one of those forks in the road about which Robert Frost wrote almost a century ago. Ron Wilson was relieved of his duties yesterday as coach of the San Jose Sharks. The problem for Wilson was not his regular season production – he finished his tenure with the Sharks 206-122-19-32 – but his playoff record. With a 28-24 win-loss record and failure to reach the Stanley Cup final in his four tries, Sharks management decided that a change was in order.

Wilson joins Joel Quenneville and Paul Maurice as veteran coaches looking for employment this off season. Meanwhile, as James Mirtle wrote last Friday, there is another line of thinking that finding an AHL bench boss might be a more productive strategy – the “Bruce Boudreau” strategy, if you will.

Pro sports of all types are risk-averse entities given to trying to copy the latest success. In the matter of coaching, risk-aversion often means recycling the same set of names. Wilson has coached for three franchises in his 14 seasons behind an NHL bench. Quenneville has had two postings in his 11 seasons. Maurice has had two teams (three, if you count Hartford, the predecessor to the Carolina Hurricanes) in his 11 years. Other coaches with multiple teams on their resumes have already surfaced for vacancies. Pat Burns, for example – with four teams in 14 years on his resume – has already been identified as a potential candidate for both the Colorado and Toronto vacancies.

But while these coaches with more than one NHL stop in their careers are the focus of speculation in some quarters, coaches like John Anderson, Scott Gordon, Don Lever, and Randy Cunneyworth might be getting long looks by teams with vacancies in an attempt to recreate the success the Capitals had in selecting Bruce Boudreau.

There are a few clubs standing at that place where two roads diverge. On one lies familiarity as coaches with hundreds of games of experience become available. On the other lies risk as coaches with fine resumes at the minor league level stand ready to take the next step.

The Washington Capitals chose the road less taken twice in recent years. The first time – selecting the Grand Rapids Griffins’ Bruce Cassidy – was a famously unsuccessful experience. The second time, however, the club hit the jackpot with Adams Trophy finalist Bruce Boudreau, brought from behind the Hershey Bears’ bench 21 games into the season to lead the Caps to the playoffs.

This is going to make for some interesting decisions that bear watching and that might have repercussions that extend well into next year. Should these teams with vacancies take that less-travelled path, those experienced coaches will still be out there waiting and watching…

…and available.

How Green Is This Team?

Olaf Kolzig leaves the club having played 711 regular season games. What that leaves is a club with no player on it who has played as many as 250 games -- just over three regular seasons ' worth -- with the Capitals. Here is how they break down among selected players under contract or who might be expected to return...


* entire NHL career with Washington
# two separate tours with club

A Special Happy Mothers Day to All You Hockey Moms Out There

It's that day when we honor that most important person in our lives -- Mom. And what more special mom is there (well, other than your own) than a hockey mom?

Here's a place just for you hockey moms out there.

In case you're looking for some do's and don't's as a hockey mom, you could start here.

If you're wondering if you, or someone you know, is a hockey mom...here are some ways to spot one.

If you are looking to become one, yourself, here's a guide for the rookies.

And if you're looking for stuff to announce to the hockey world that you are a hockey mom, well...here are some accessories.

For all you moms out there -- the hockey variety or not...

The 2007-2008 season, by the "tens" -- Centers: Boyd Gordon

We continue looking at the centers, this time turning our attention to…

Boyd Gordon

Theme: “every good boy does fine”

Anyone who has taken a couple of music theory classes will recognize the phrase, “every good boy does fine.” They are the notes of the lines in the treble clef of a music score. It also conjures the image of the young student, diligently and earnestly going through his exercises to become more proficient. This is where Gordon appears to be in his still young career.

Gordon went the first ten games of the season, of which he played in seven, without having been on the ice for an opposition goal. Oddly enough, the first time he was on the ice for one was in the Caps’ biggest offensive explosion in the 21 games under former coach Glen Hanlon – a 7-1 win over Toronto on October 29^th…31 seconds after he scored his own first goal of the year. That was a streak of 128:35 in playing time for Gordon without a goal scored against on his watch. If no one else thrived under Glen Hanlon, Gordon seemed to, at least early-on in his defensive world (no coincidence that, with Hanlon emphasizing the defensive end and little risk-taking more than attacking in the offensive end).

* seven games

But Gordon – like the rest of the Caps – sank into an abyss of unproductive play as time wore on. After that effective start (defensively), he was 0-1-1, -5 for November (in ten games) leading up to Hanlon’s dismissal.

Gordon’s fortunes mirrored the Caps, in a way, after the change behind the bench. He had an empty net goal in his second game under Bruce Boudreau, then suffered a fractured hand against Florida two games later (it did not prevent him from taking a turn and scoring in the shootout of a 2-1 loss). The injury would cause him to miss a dozen games, but when he returned he went 2-4-6, +4, in his first half-dozen games back in the lineup. He will remind no one of Pavel Bure in the offensive end, but he has been a competent offensive player in previous stops along the way, so this kind of performance might be thought of as a peek at things to come.

The thing is, though, the shut-down defensive performance and occasional outbursts of offense do not appear to come concurrently with Gordon, and this is the inexperience in his game. If one looks at his progress in the offensive end (10-12-22-33 goals over four years with Red Deer in juniors, and a similar progression on a goals-per-games-played basis in the AHL), it is apparent that this will be a late-arriving talent for Gordon in the NHL…not unlike that music student mastering E-G-B-D-F before tackling Mozart.

What Gordon has mastered already is the art of the draw. In 49 of 67 games he won at least 50 percent of the faceoffs he took on the way to a 55.8 mark for the season. He finished tenth among centers taking at least 500 draws in this category, and he was consistent. In only one ten game split did he fail to win at least 50 percent of his draws in a majority of the games.

That offensive game does need to pick up, though. Among forwards playing at least 50 games, only Matt Bradley had a worse shooting percentage (6.3 percent) than Gordon’s 7.0 percent. Gordon does not have a classic wrist shot or a booming slap shot, but we perhaps should not take the nickname “Muffin” too literally, either. We think this will be an aspect of his game that will develop and improve as time goes by.

Gordon lacks a fully-assembled game. The pieces are mostly there, at least intermittently, and he is a hard working player. He is, for lack of a better description, a “diligent student,” if not gifted. His skills, though, are of the sort a team needs to be successful. Gordon is a work in progress. He’s made improvements, but there is more to be done (something that can be said for a lot of players on this team). For that, Gordon gets a…

B

The 2007-2008 season, by the "tens" -- Centers: Sergei Fedorov

It’s been a while since our last entry in this category, but we return to our look at the Capitals over the 2007-2008 season through “the tens.” Next up among the centers…

Sergei Fedorov

Theme: “The maestro in autumn”

When the Capitals traded defenseman prospect Ted Ruth to the Columbus Blue Jackets for Fedorov at the trading deadline, the Capitals were not getting the player who was 56-64-120, +48 in 1993-1994. They were not getting the player who was 10-10-20 in 22 playoff games in 1998, when the Detroit Red Wings swept the Capitals in the Stanley Cup final. They were getting a player who labored inconspicuously in two hockey graveyards – Anaheim (before they were a Cup-worthy team) and Columbus. They were getting a 38-year old who looked as if his best days were behind him and who seemed to be going through the motions, as if he was counting the days until retirement.

Then he arrived in Washington. In his first game with the Caps, Fedorov played a shade under 16 minutes, had an assist on a power play goal by Mike Green, had three shots on goal, and won 10 of 13 faceoffs. Three-stars-of-the-night performance? No, not really. But it was the kind of performance, entering seamlessly and making a contribution, that reflected the value his addition would have. If you look at the 18 games that Fedorov played in the regular season for the Caps, the usual numbers don’t speak to much…2-11-13, -2.

But break them down, look at them in progression...

* all with Washington
** with Washington, eight games

In Fedorov’s first ten games with the Caps, he was 1-4-5, -3. The Caps were 7-3-0. Then, in the last eight games of the year, Fedorov was 1-7-8, +1. The Caps were 7-1-0. But what is more is what a 38-year old, former all-star, former Stanley Cup champion, former Olympian could do – make his linemates better and serve as the mentoring influence on a young club. Case in point – Alexander Semin. It appeared that Semin played in awe of his new linemate in the first few games they played together – Semin was 3-4-7, -8 (he had no “plus” games), in the first 12 games after Fedorov joined the club. But that line is deceiving. All three goals were power play tallies, and only one included an assist from Fedorov (a secondary assist on Semin’s goal against Pittsburgh on March 9^th). In the last six games of the year, Semin was 4-1-5 (three of them being power play goals), and Fedorov assisted on each of those goals (two primary, two secondary). What had been a problem for the Caps for much of the year – second line scoring – was addressed with a pair (Semin and Fedorov) that were developing a chemistry similar to that enjoyed by Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin on the top line.

What Fedorov gave the Caps for 18 games was precisely what one would have wanted – a stabilizing veteran influence that provided consistent minutes (18-plus minutes a game) and contributions in the obvious (13 points in 18 games) and subtle (50-plus percent on draws in 15 of 18 games) aspects of the game. Subjectively, Fedorov’s presence could not but have helped after the Capitals lost consecutive games in early March – in especially brutal fashion to Boston and to Pittsburgh – the first time the Caps had lost back-to-back games in regulation since coach Bruce Boudreau took over at Thanksgiving. Fedorov did not have a point in the following game against the Calgary Flames – a 3-2 win, but he contributed 21:48 of playing time (second only to Ovechkin among the forwards), a hit, a couple of takeaways, and won 12 of 21 draws. It bears noting that the tying and winning goals in that game were scored by Ovechkin – another youngster benefitting from the presence of the veteran who, if he hasn’t seen it all, than certainly has seen most of what one can expect to deal with in hockey.

The margin for error was so thin at the end of the year that it could be said of almost any player, “if he didn’t do ‘x’…” or, “if so-and-so wasn’t here…,” and there would be truth in this. But Fedorov brought more than he could have contributed in the sheer nuts-and-bolts statistics (the best days of which were well behind him). He brought the experience and leadership needed to a team facing its first trial-by-fire. His arrival announced to the club that it was serious about making the playoffs…now. The little things he did – winning draws, killing penalties, thinking ahead on the play – were the kind of “lead by example” kind of play that did – and will, even if he does not re-sign with the club – pay dividends to a young group such as this.

Watching Fedorov is like watching a maestro who might not be able to give the night after night performances he did in his youth, but who can still summon those skills on any given night and who understands the game at such a fundamental level that those around him are made better by his example. He was the kid, so to speak, who moved to the neighborhood and enrolled in a new school. But he did well in his short time there, and given the circumstances and his role earned a solid

A-

"For me, it was disappointing the way it ended..."

Any Capitals fan who has been following the team since 1989 could say the same thing this morning.

Olaf Kolzig confirmed that his career with the Washington Capitals has come to an end. An entire generation of Capitals fans that has known no other number one goaltender other than Kolzig has to be sharing Kolzig’s thought that “it just doesn’t feel right.”

Why? Kolzig has played in 711 of the franchise’s 2,640 regular season games, 45 of its 164 playoff games. A player whose career spans more than a quarter of all the games it has ever played leaves an indelible mark.

But it isn’t just that. It would be a memorable tenure only for his on-ice performance over the years…301 regular season wins, five 30-win seasons, 35 shutouts, a Stanley Cup final, a Vezina Trophy. But for all that, Kolzig leaves a mark in the larger Washington community for his off-ice work that makes him an icon in local sports history, one who rivals any Redskin, any Bullet, any Wizard, any Senator, any…well, anything you’d care to name.

Having equal reputations for a volcanic temper and for being one of the true nice guys and gentlemen in the sport, he cast a large shadow over the local sports scene since assuming the number one goaltending role under somewhat unusual circumstances early in the 1997-1998 season. By this time he’d already staked out a place for himself in Capitals history as being the unfortunate victim of a four-overtime loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 1996 playoffs. But he was not the starting goaltender on opening night of the 1997-1998 season…at least, not until Bill Ranford took a shot to the groin that forced him from the game, Kolzig into the nets, and fans searching for the meaning of the name, “Wally Pipp.”

It was a long road from draft day in 1989 to starting goaltender for the Caps, and Kolzig held onto the job tenaciously once he had it, averaging 68 appearances and 3,970 minutes a season from 1997-1998 until the lockout season (three times surpassing the 4,000 minute mark). After his first season as the Caps' full-time number one goaltender, one in which he would lead the Caps to their only Stanley Cup finals appearance, the club had intermittent success, but his standing among his peers and commentators as one of the NHL’s elite goaltenders and fiercest competitors did not suffer.

After the lockout, Kolzig toiled behind a makeshift, inexperienced club that was rebuilding around a new star – Alex Ovechkin. His statistics suffered with a very green defense in front of him that left him to face almost 2,000 shots in 59 games in 2005-2006. He could have asked for a trade in that season, and he could have left Washington after that season as a free agent, but he re-signed with the club in a two-year deal in February 2006 with the hope of being in Washington when the good times returned.

This could have been that season. However, for all the movie sentimentality of sport, in reality it is cold and not without a sense of cruel irony. The foreshadowing of future events might have unfolded on opening night of the 2007-1008 season as Brent Johnson, not Kolzig, started for the Caps. After a 7-13-1 start, though, Kolzig was 15-6-5 from December 8 – February 26. But the Capitals seized the opportunity presented to them to obtain goalie Cristobal Huet from Montreal for a second round pick in 2009. Huet made the most of his opportunity, going 11-2-0 in a season-ending rush that cemented his role as number one goaltender, catapulted the team to the Southeast Division title, and earned the Caps a playoff berth.

It was not supposed to end this way, not for Kolzig. Like any of the elite performers of his craft, it could be fairly said that he was compensated well for his talents over the years. But he gave as much back to the team and to the community. The debates over whether his number should be retired to the rafters or whether his 301 wins, Vezina Trophy, and Stanley Cup finals appearance merits Hall of Fame consideration are for another day. Today, things just don’t feel right in Capitals Nation. There is a six-foot-three-inch hole in its heart.

Your Conference Finals Prognostos -- Western Conference Final: Red Wings vs. Stars

And now, the other half of the conference finals...

Detroit Red Wings (1) vs. Dallas Stars (5)

Season series:

Jan. 2: at Detroit 4 – Dallas 1
Jan. 5: Detroit 3 – at Dallas 0
Feb. 17: at Dallas 1 – Detroit 0
Mar. 13: at Detroit 5 – Dallas 3

These teams have met three times in the playoffs, including the Stars incarnation in Minnesota, the Red Wings winning each time (the last time in 1998, the last year in which both teams competed in the same division). Since then, these two teams have been among the most consistently productive regular season teams – Dallas has averaged 46 wins and 104 points a year (including that just ended), the Red Wings 50 wins and 111 points. But for all those wins, each has but a single Stanley Cup. Each, on the other hand, has been knocked out three times in the first round of the playoffs. Seems “D” also stands for disappointment for these clubs, given their regular season success and disappointment being a relative thing.

In this year’s four-game series, here is how the top-seeded Red Wings came out:

Goals for/against: 12/5
Power play goals for/against: 1/1
Even-strength goals for/against: 11/4
Power play: 1/15 (6.7%)
Penalty killing: 10/11 (90.9%)
Record: one-goal games: 0-1-0
Record, 3+ goal games: 2-0

With the exception of a rather anemic power play, these numbers reflect efficiency rather than domination. Detroit has been just good enough, consistently enough, to earn six of eight points from the Stars. There isn’t a lot to take from this set of numbers, but there is from the individual numbers for the Red Wings’ leading scorers for the season:

Pavel Datsyuk:3-2-5, +6
Henrik Zetterberg: 0-4-4, +4
Nicklas Lidstrom: 0-5-5, +6
Brian Rafalski: 1-1-2, +6, 1 GWG (three games)
Daniel Cleary: 2-2-4, +1 (two games)

See it? OK, it was a bit of a trick question. It is who isn’t on that list that might matter most...four games, 3-1-4, +4, and a game winner in the season series. You’d think he might be a factor here. Well, add to this the fact that the same player has 11 goals in ten playoff games, four game-winners, two shorthanded goals, and is a +9, and you’d think someone had better be paying attention to Johan Franzen just about as much as Datsyuk, Zetterberg, or Lidstrom.

The Wings also will bring balance and consistency to this series. The balance – 12 players have goals, 19 have points. The consistency – only twice in two games have the Wings scored fewer than three goals, only twice have they scored more than four, while on defense they have surrendered more than three only once.

In goal, Chris Osgood had the sort of record against the Stars – 2-0-0, 2.00, .907 – that speaks to efficiency rather than artistry. That is part of a larger matter. Osgood faced only 43 shots in two games against the Stars. It is something the Red Wings are very good at, both in the regular season and the playoffs – limiting the opposing teams’ shots. Thus far, the Red Wings have outshot their opponents by an average of 14.4 shots a game (39.3 to 24.9). They’ve been outshot only once in ten games (they lost, 5-3, to Nashville). Four times they have outshot their opponent by at least two-to-one. That causes teams to expend a lot of effort in defense that leaves them short on the other end. Goalies don’t have to be spectacular as much as alert. They will not see a lot of chances.

As far as the Stars and their leading scorers are concerned (all in four games, unless noted):

Mike Ribiero: 0-1-1, -5
Brenden Morrow: 1-0-1, -6
Mike Modano: 0-0-0, -5
Niklas Hagman: 1-0-1, -2
Jere Lehtinen: 1-1-2, even

And here is the other side of the coin. The Stars’ leading scorers have been victimized at even strength and have not been able to make it up by getting their own share of points. As a group these five players have a total of 36 shots in four games – fewer than two per game, per man. Modano and Ribiero have two apiece. If they can’t improve on that total, this will not be a long series.

The difficulties Dallas had scoring goals against Detroit this season has crept into their playof performance. After scoring nine goals in games one and two in the opening round series against Anaheim, Dallas has 26 goals in their last ten games. That is a bit deceptive, though. They scored five against San Jose in game two of the second round, but have scored more than three goals only once, otherwise. It isn’t the drought they suffered at the hands of the Red Wings in the regular season, but considering the Red Wings are third in goals allowed-per-game in the post-season (Dallas is second), there will be a lot of pressure on Marty Turco in goal.

Turco was 1-2-0, 2.69, .905 – respectable numbers as far as GAA and save percentage go for the season series against the Wings, but not good enough to crack the win column, save a shutout he pitched for the Stars’ only win in the series. But at the moment, Turco seems to have finally cast off the reputation as a playoff non-performer. His performance in the series-clinching win against San Jose in a fourth overtime might have cemented that. For much of the overtime, it looked as if it was merely a matter of time before the Sharks solved Turco, since the game was played largely in Dallas’ end. But he saved 61 of 62 shots in what was one of the most memorable goaltending performances in recent playoff memory. He’s going to need to approach that level of performance for the Stars to have a realistic chance of upsetting the Red Wings.

But it isn’t just Turco who needs to maintain a high level of performance. Again, it could be a matter of shots. If you compare the goals per game scored by these two teams in the playoffs, Detroit leads all NHL teams with 3.80/game. Dallas sits fifth, but at 2.92 goals a game they are almost a full goal per game short of the Wings. But here is the unusual part – the two teams have virtually identical shooting percentages: Detroit at 9.67 percent (38 goals on 393 shots), Dallas at 9.72 percent (35 goals on 360 shots). For every 60 minutes of play, the Wings have averaged 39.2 shots, the Stars 27.0. How much better does Turco have to play to keep things even? Well, if Osgood maintains his .937 save percentage pace in the playoffs facing 27 Stars shots a game, his GAA would be 1.70. For Turco to match that, facing 39.2 shots every 60 minutes, he’d have to have a save percentage of .957. If Osgood is only as good as his season series against the Stars (.907 save percentage), Turco has have a save percentage of .936. Please, note that the leading save percentage in the playoffs so far is .938. We keep coming back to this – shots matter. Dallas, as a team, cannot allow that 12 shot gap per game to persist.

Why Detroit will win…

1.70...no, that’s not from the example used above, it is the average margin of victory in goals for the Red Wings so far in these playoffs. And for all the numbers, the ones that matter most, of course, are the number of goals you score versus the number you allow, and this goal differential leads the league. They also lead in scoring, five-on-five play, shots per game, fewest shots allowed per game, winning percentage when trailing first. They are top-five in just about everything else. They are balanced – in ten games they have ten players with at least five points. On paper, this is the best team in this tournament.

Why Dallas will win…

In the first three games of the season series, the Stars and Wings each registered 77 shots. If shots matter, then the Stars – if they can repeat this performance – have more than a shot, because they have who might be the best goalie in the west in these playoffs in Marty Turco. And Turco is returning to the vicinity of some of his biggest victories, having played for the University of Michigan down the road (national championships in 1996 and 1998). They have the sort of team, with guys like Brenden Morrow, Jere Lehtinen, and Mattias Norstrom that can cause some problems for the Wings with their defensive play. They have smart veterans in Brad Richards and Sergei Zubov who will not be intimidated by the Red Wings. This team is probably set up better to deal with the Red Wings than any they could have faced in the playoffs (with the possible exception of Anaheim).

In the end…

Detroit has been coldly efficient in the playoffs so far, but there is something about Dallas that says, “they’re the one.” Detroit has players who can mix it up – Tomas Holmstrom, Kris Draper, Darren McCarty – but it is not what defines them. Dallas has been a lunch pail bunch this playoff season, sticking around and plugging away. They are going to steal one of the first two games in Detroit, and they will plug away enough to earn the upset, with Turco – the “Michigan Man” – being the difference.

Dallas in six.

Your Conference Finals Prognostos -- Eastern Conference Final: Penguins vs. Flyers

We’re half-way through, and that means the conference finals. First up, the east...

Pittsburgh Penguins (2) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (6)

Season series:

Nov. 7: Philadelphia 3 – at Pittsburgh 1
Nov. 10: at Philadelphia 5 – Pittsburgh 2
Dec. 11: at Philadelphia 8 – Pittsburgh 2
Jan. 24: at Philadelphia 4 – Pittsburgh 3
Feb. 10: at Pittsburgh 4 – Philadelphia 3
Mar. 16: at Pittsburgh 7 – Philadelphia 1
Apr. 2: at Pittsburgh 4 – Philadelphia 2
Apr. 6: at Philadelphia 2 – Pittsburgh 0

The subtext to this series is an accusation by Ottawa coach Brian Murray that the Penguins took a dive in their season-ending game against the Flyers so as to avoid having to play the Flyers in the first round, preferring to meet the Ottawa Senators. It wouldn’t be the first time the Penguins engaged in strategic diving (cough - Lemieux - cough), Sidney Crosby being the master of the tactical dive...must be a Penguin thing this diving.

Well now, the Penguins get the Flyers. While the AHL versions of these teams go at it in their own playoff series, the NHL clubs renew their playoff blood feud for the fourth time in their respective histories with each playing as well as they have all year. Going back to the regular season, the Penguins are 19-5-1 in their last 25 games, the Flyers are 15-5-1 in their last 21. The Penguins haven’t lost consecutive games since February 28-March 1, the Flyers are playing in a conference final when they were given up for dead after a ten-game winless streak from February 6-23.

In this year’s eight-game series, here is how the second-seeded Penguins came out:

Goals for/against: 23/28
Power play goals for/against: 9/11
Even-strength goals for/against: 13/15
Power play: 9/40 (22.5%)
Penalty killing: 35/46 (76.1%)
Record: one-goal games: 1-1-0
Record, 3+ goal games: 1-2

This is a tale of two seasons. The Flyers won the first four games by a combined 20-8 score. The Penguins won the next three by a combined 15-6 score. Then there was the “dive game” (for the record, Flyers 2 - Penguins 0). We’ll discount that one. The nature of the two seasons-in-a-season is like watching Rocky Balboa (that would be the plucky, little-thought-of Flyers) trading head shots with Apollo Creed (the media darling, super-talented Penguins).

Looking at the Penguins’ top scorers in the season series (all through eight games, unless noted):

Evgeni Malkin: 6-9-15, +1, 1 GWG
Sidney Crosby: 2-5-7, -6 (four games)
Sergei Gonchar: 3-5-8, -5
Petr Sykora: 5-4-9, +4, 1 GWG
Ryan Malone: 1-5-6, -1

What is telling about these numbers is that the dynamic duo of Malkin and Crosby are 8-14-22, but a combined -5. Why?...five of Crosby’s seven points came on the power play, five of Malkin’s. For good measure, seven of Gonchar’s points came with the man advantage. Philadelphia has been able to exploit them to a degree at even strength.

There is absolutely no secret to this series, if the season series is an indicator. Of the 23 goals scored by the Penguins in their eight games against the Flyers, either Crosby or Malkin, or both, scored or assisted on 18 of them, including 12 of the last 14.

But – and a significant “but” it is – the Penguins have spread the wealth a little more in the post season. While Crosby or Malkin have had a hand in 22 of the 31 goals so far, the goal scoring itself has been spread among 13 different skaters. 18 of 19 skaters who have dressed in the Penguin’s nine playoff games have points.

For the Penguins, the trading deadline addition of Marian Hossa is paying off. He is the third-leading scorer for the Penguins in the playoffs (5-5-10, +3) and was 1-3-4 in three games against the Flyers this year. His is the dimension – a scoring winger – that the Penguins have lacked at times this season. If he has another point-a-game or better series (he had five points in each of the first two rounds), he’ll be on the winning team.

But for all the blather about Crosby this, and Malkin that, what has driven the Penguins is goaltending and defense. Marc-Andre Fleury is third among playoff goalies in goals-against average (1.76) and leads all netminders in save percentage (.938). He is tied for the lead in shutouts with two. Since returning from injury on February 28th, Fleury is 18-3-1, 1.63, .943. He is giving every sign that he is finally that franchise goalie the Penguins thought they were drafting in 2003. As a team, only once have the Penguins surrendered more than three goals in nine games.

Turning to the Flyers and their top scorers and their records in this series (all in eight games, unless noted):

Mike Richards: 1-7-8, +2
Daniel Briere: 1-6-7, +1 (seven games)
Mike Knuble: 5-2-7, even, 1 GWG
Jeff Carter: 2-4-6, +3, 1 GWG
R.J. Umberger: 6-5-11, +4, 1 GWG

Another of the subplots in this series revolves around Umberger, the Pittsburgh native. Umberger has worn out the Penguins this year, and his nine-point effort in the Montreal series has allowed him to climb to tenth in post-season scoring and second in goals. He is perhaps as god a symbol of the Flyers in the post-season as anyone – an unheralded player with exquisite timing, playing perhaps the best and most surprising stretch of hockey in his NHL career. For all the press that has been and will continue to be churned out about the Penguins’ firepower, the Flyers are averaging more goals per game thus far in the playoffs (3.58 to 3.44). While it is true that the Flyers have played: a) a green defensive team (Washington), and b) one with a rookie goalie (Montreal), they have found offense in a lot of different places – eight players have at least three goals; four players have at least 11 points.

The Flyers’ marketing scheme at the moment is built upon the theme, “Vengeance Now.” Well, if the phrase has meaning, it has it with respect to this opponent. The Penguins treated the Flyers rudely last season, winning all eight games by a combined 40-21 (not including shootout goals). The Flyers exacted a measure of vengeance in the first four games this year, but Pittsburgh turned the tables in the second half of the season series. But what is likely to be key for the Flyers are a pair of players who were not in Philadelphia for most of that unpleasantness with the Penguins last year.

The first is Daniel Briere. He is tied for second in playoff scoring, but after having a fine series against Washington in the opening round (6-5-11, +2), he tailed a bit in the second round (2-1-3, -1). He will have to have a performance more like that of the first round if the Flyers are to advance.

The second player is Martin Biron. Having had no playoff experience coming into this post-season, Biron has been steady and, at times, spectacular in goal. His statistics do not jump off the page – eighth in GAA (2.72), sixth in save percentage (.914) – but he has been there when the Flyers have needed him. His season stats against the Penguins are equally unremarkable (2.58, .898), but he has five wins in eight games and a shutout (ok, it was the dive game). And, while the Flyers played that green defense and rookie goalie in the first two rounds, they also played against two of the more accomplished offensive teams in the league. Neither Biron nor the Flyers will be intimidated by the Penguins.

Why Pittsburgh will win…

The word, “juggernaut,” comes from the Hindi (“lord of the world”) and refers to an inexorable force. That is what the Penguins have been thus far in the playoffs. They have not exploded for goals (they have not scored more than five in a game), but they have been consistent (only twice with fewer than three). They are getting scoring from the guys they should be getting scoring from; they are getting goaltending from the guy who has to give it to them. This is a team without an obvious weakness (ok, they are last among the 16 playoff teams in faceoff winning percentage). They are top-four in just about every statistical measure. Here is your surprising stat...they lead all playoff teams in fewest goals allowed-per-game. They are playing like a well-oiled machine. The word to describe them so far is just that...”juggernaut.”

Why Philadelphia will win…

Because they shouldn’t. This is the contrarian team. They should not have won game seven, on the road, in Washington in the opening round. They had no business dispatching the Canadiens in five games. And, they can abuse the Penguins in ways neither Ottawa nor the Rangers could. The one statistical measure that could have relevance to the Flyers is this – they’ve been the better five-on-five team in the playoffs. They held their own at even-strength against the Penguins this year. If they can keep the sides even, they have a chance. And, the Flyers can play with a chip on their shoulder – this is, remember, the team the Penguins (allegedly) wanted to avoid in the first round. And, the Flyers have never lost to the Penguins in the playoffs (3-0).

In the end…

Pittsburgh has more talent and they are playing very well in all three zones. They haven’t been extended, winning two series by 4-0 and 4-1 margins. In only two of eight wins was the margin of victory a single goal. Philly can make this interesting, but it’s hard to see a clear – or even a muddy - path to a Flyer series win.


Pittsburgh in six.