The 2008-2009 season, by the "tens" -- Defensemen: Mike Green

Mike Green

Theme: “Life is short, eat dessert first”

We saw that sign at an ice cream establishment on our drive up to Hershey this past weekend, where we watched the Bears win a couple of playoff games. It brought us to mind of the sort of season had by Mike Green. Whether the product of injury, illness, or demonic possession, one could not have foreseen the sort of drop off in production Green had between his regular season and his playoffs. Comparing his regular season of 68 games to his playoff numbers, extrapolated over a comparable 68 games, the result is as follows:

Regular Season: 31-43-72, +24
Post-Season: 5-39-43, -24

But let’s get to dessert first. Green had one of the most prolific seasons by a defenseman. His league ranking among defensemen in several categories bears this out:

Goals: 31 (1st)
Assists: 42 (7th)
Points: 73 (1st)
Plus/Minus: +24 (T-5th)
Power Play Goals: 18 (1st)
Power Play Assists: 20 (T-11th)
Power Play Points: 38 (2nd)
Game-Winning Goals: 4 (T-3rd)

Green did this in only 68 regular season games, at least five fewer games played than any of the top-20 scorers among defensemen in the NHL. Dig deeper, and the same results appear (all for defensemen playing in at least 50 games):

Corsi: 2nd
Goals/60 minutes: 2nd
Primary Assists/60 minutes: 4th
Points/60 minutes: 1st
Goals For/On Ice per 60 minutes: 1st
Goals Against/On Ice per 60 minutes: better than Zdeno Chara, Brian Rafalski, Chris Pronger, Jay Bouwmeester, and Mike Komisarek, among others. He was only five spots behind Nicklas Lidstrom.

And it’s not as if he padded his stats against also-ran opponents, either. Against the other seven Eastern Conference playoff teams, he was 10-15-25, +12 in 27 games. But nestled in that last set of numbers is this… 0-0-0, -4. That was Green’s line in four games against Philadelphia, and it might have served as a bit of a harbinger of things to come in the post season. Philadelphia is among the more aggressive forechecking and puck pursuit teams, and Green had his troubles here (yes, it’s a small sample).

Looking at his ten-game segments is a bit deceptive...




He lost virtually the entire third segment to a shoulder injury, playing one game (he was 1-2-3 in his return from injury, against Ottawa). It masked what would be a fairly consistent first half of the season, followed by rather substantial improvement in the last half. It was in that last half (in Games 49-56) during which Green set a record for consecutive games with a goal scored by a defenseman. During those eight games, he was 10-7-17, +8. That is important in that if you take that stretch away, Green was still 21-35-56, +16 in 60 games, which would still have left him tied for sixth in scoring among defensemen while having played at least 17 fewer games than any defenseman above him.

Green had a big year on the offensive side of the ledger.

It’s not as if he was a slug on defense, either, although he remains something of a work in progress in that regard. The evidence of his progress is perhaps reflected best in his ice time while killing penalties. In 2007-2008, Green averaged a grand total of 20 seconds a night on the PK, last on the team among defensemen (50 games, minimum). This year, he averaged 2:28 a game. That was still only fourth on the team (among defensemen playing at least 50 games), but clear evidence of his being given more responsibility in his own end. And he responded to the increased responsibility. Although he did not face the best power play opposition (worst on the team among defensemen), he was on the ice for fewer than half of the goals scored against per-60 minutes in those situations than the next best Capital (John Erskine).

But then, there were the playoffs. In his last ten regular season games, Green was 6-6-12, +2. That was against some pretty weak competition (nine of those games were against teams that did not make the playoffs), but there was nothing in his play to suggest a full-blown meltdown in the playoffs. From our seat, Green had to be injured (the shoulder he injured earlier in the year, made worse by an awkward tumble into the boards in the opening round series against the Rangers?). He was tossing change-ups at the net, and he was avoiding contact when pressed in his own end. It make for a lack of offense at one end (the one goal he scored coming in Game 6 of the opening round) and getting abused in his own end (minus-6 in the last six games of the second round, no plus games among them, and Green is still the leader, so to speak, in giveaways in the 2008-2009 playoffs, the only player with more than 20). It probably isn’t fair to say this in light of what we think had to be an injury, but if there was one factor above all others that contributed to the Caps’ early exit, it was the difficulties Green had at both ends of the ice.

At the start of the season, we said this of Green…

“In the last ten years, only one defenseman playing more than 60 games in a season achieved a point-per-game performance (Nicklas Lidstrom – 80 points in 80 games in 2005-2006). Green, given his talent, the talent around him, and the philosophy of the club, appears best positioned among current NHL defensemen to achieve that level of production.”

We also said it wouldn’t be this year – we were wrong about that. And Green had an otherwise sweet regular season, historic and certainly worthy of a defenseman selected as a finalist for the Norris Trophy. But the playoffs were a helping of broccoli – perhaps something to be endured and perhaps healthy in the long run. But it did not leave a good taste in anyone’s mouth.

Grade: A-

The 2008-2009 season, by the "tens" -- Defensemen: John Erskine

John Erskine

Theme: “Opportunity is missed by most because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work”

John Erskine was the only Capitals defenseman playing more than 15 games this year who did not score a goal.

That’s alright; that’s not his job. He was, by far, the team leader among defensemen in hits-per-game (2.46, compare to 1.99 for Milan Jurcina). He was third on the team – first among defensemen – in fighting majors (three). That’s more his job – the heavy lifting in the more physical aspects of the game. It’s a hard way to make a living, but that’s where Erskine makes his. And it’s taken Erskine a while to get to this point. Until this year, Erskine hung around the margins of NHL rosters – he had never played more than 51 games in a season for one team in his career (he played in 60 games for Dallas and the Islanders in 2005-2006). But Erskine earned a two-year contract extension with the Caps last fall, and he fills a niche on this team – the hard working defensive defenseman who plays with an edge. That’s suggested in the ten-game segments, where the offensive numbers are meager…


But 128 hits in 52 games, 63 penalty minutes, and three fighting majors is indicative of Erskine’s taking on his role with a certain gusto. And that is made more impressive by the fact that he missed 22 games with a mild concussion – not the sort of thing that would lead one to want to engage in a lot of physical stuff upon one’s return. But he did have 85 hits in the 33 games following that concussion and two of his fighting majors.

Erskine has a profile that suggests to some that of a 5/6/7 defenseman. Well, there might be some truth in that, but in 52 games, Erskine was on the minus side of the ledger only 12 times. If you’re not going to contribute a lot on the offensive end, one might put more emphasis on this sort of measure. While it’s true that he did not face the highest of competition (he was last in this measure among Caps defensemen playing at least 30 games, according to behindthenet.ca), he held up his end of the bargain and wasn’t on the ice for goals scored by opponents who shouldn’t do damage. In fact, Erskine was best on the team in goals scored-against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 of any Capitals defenseman (30 games, minimum).

Part of Erskine’s success has to do with management of ice time. That’s important in putting him in a position where he can best succeed. He doesn’t have much in the way of offense to contribute – he averaged only two seconds (that’s not a misprint) of power play time a night – last on the team among defensemen. On the other hand, there are folks who are suspicious of his skating ability, which might account for his averaging only 1:37 in shorthanded ice time per game, sixth among Caps defensemen (30 games, minimum).

What he did get was even-strength ice time, and at 15:07 a game he averaged almost as much as Tom Poti (15:19) and slightly more than Milan Jurcina (15:05) and Shaone Morrisonn (14:59).

The question, though, is whether or not Erskine is a difference-maker. Hockey is not a sport that lends itself to clear conclusions that one player makes a difference, unless we are speaking of the elite of the elite, and 5/6/7 defensemen wouldn’t generally be among that class of player if it was possible to make those kinds of assessments. But the Caps were 20-10 with Erskine out of the lineup (including losses in extra time), 30-22 when he dressed.

Erskine is a player who defines the term “role player.” In this instance he fills the role of “physical defenseman” – the sort of player the Caps do not have in abundance anywhere in their system. But the comparative rarity of this specie of defenseman should not lead one to confuse Erskine with a Brooks Orpik or a Mike Komisarek among “physical” defensemen. He is not in that class. But he doesn’t cost $3,750,000 a year (Orpik), either, nor does he cost as much as what Komisarek is likely to be offered this summer as a free agent.

Last fall, we said this in previewing Erskine…

“…he has played – and can play – a part that contributes to success on this team…a guy who will give a good effort for 14-16 minutes a night, kill some penalties, wreak some havoc among opponents, stand up for his teammates, and give the top four guys a breather without putting the club at a disadvantage. It’s a role that is underrated.”

It is a role that Erskine filled and filled fairly well (he actually averaged 16:47 a night in ice time), testimony to Thomas Edison's quote about opportunity and hard work. The question going forward will be, can he improve upon it, or will the Caps have to upgrade at this position.

Grade: C+

Just Sayin'...

The Penguins are 0-3 on Detroit ice.

Evgeni Malkin is 1-1-2, minus-3 in three games there.

Sidney Crosby doesn't have a point there and is minus-3 there.

Bill Guerin -- a late season pickup to provide some veteran leadership -- doesn't have a point there and is minus-2.

Chris Kunitz -- ditto -- doesn't have a point there and is minus-2.

Sergei Gonchar?... nope, no points at the Joe.

Jordan Staal?... nope.

Marc-Andre Fleury is 0-3 there with a GAA of 4.33 and a save percentage of .857 there.

This final might go to a Game 7, and Pittsburgh only has to win one game on Detroit ice if things get that far.

But it wouldn't be the way to bet.

Bears Win! -- Calder Cup Final, Game 4: Bears 2 - Moose 1

And then there was one to go…

The Hershey Bears inched to within one win of their tenth Calder Cup championship in team history with a 2-1, come-from-behind win over the Manitoba Moose this evening at Giant Center. The score suggests a close game, but in this instance we’re reminded that close on the scoreboard is not necessarily close on the ice.

This was a game for which a Bears loss would have been an injustice perpetrated by fate. Hershey did a fine job for most of the 60 minutes in pinning the Moose in their own end, constantly and consistently sending two forecheckers like cruise missiles to the puck-carrier, causing a bushel of turnovers. The only offense the Moose could muster in the first, oh, 55 minutes (and we’ll get back to that) was a wrister that Ray Sawada snapped over the blocker of Bears goalie Michal Neuvirth off a nice feed from Jason Jaffray at 11:37 of the first period.

Manitoba couldn’t crack the Hershey shell even when the Moose had an abbreviated 25 second 5-on-3 late in the second period. They would fail to convert on all five of their power play opportunities, making them oh-for-ten in Hershey this weekend.

Hershey spent the first 25 minutes looking as if that lone goal for the Moose would hold up and spoil the party at Giant Center. Manitoba goalie Cory Schneider was stopping everything, but the Bears were not making it as difficult as they could have. Too many of their shots were bruising Schneider’s sternum, and there were no rebounds upon which to pounce. But just past the five-minute mark of the second period, Kyle Wilson picked up a loose puck, stepped through two defenders at the top of the left wing circle, and swept the puck past Schneider on the short side to tie the game.

Then, in the third period, it was Hershey’s turn to benefit from a 5-on-3 as former Capital Nolan Baumgartner was sent off for hooking, then Greg Rallo was led to the box 55 seconds later after the Moose were whistled for too many men on the ice. Two seconds before the first minor to Baumgartner expired, Keith Aucoin took the puck on a rebound off the end boards and snapped it behind Schneider on the short side before Schneider could recover to give the Bears the lead and send the Giant Center crowd into a frenzy.

The next six or seven minutes saw the teams going back and forth – Manitoba looking for the equalizer and the Bears trying to earn some insurance. Neither could capitalize, but that merely set the stage for a frantic last five minutes. Manitoba managed to turn the tables on the Bears, force-feeding them some of the forechecking pressure that the Bears were so effective at using over the first two periods. When Michal Neuvirth was not having to make saves from all angles, it was all Hershey could do just to clear the puck to get five fresh pairs of legs on the ice. At the 18-minute mark, referee Francois St. Laurent sent Jason Jaffray and Alexandre Giroux off with coincidental minors, opening up the ice for some 4-on-4. Then, with just under 30 seconds left, St. Laurent sent the smallest player on the ice – Chris Bourque – to the box for cross-checking.

It made for a wild last half-minute. The Moose pulled Schneider to set up a two-man, 5-on-3 advantage, but Bears foiled the last chances the Moose tried to mount against Neuvirth and skated off that last half minute. The Moose outshot Hershey 13-1 those furious last minutes of the third period.

Some other stuff…

- Much better game for John Carlson tonight. He was hitting, moving the puck smartly, doing a good job keeping the puck in the offensive zone.

- Quintin Laing is probably not going to have a long NHL career. But geez, does this guy pay the price to make a play. By the time this one was over, he had cotton wadded into both nostrils. A broken nose or just your average bloody nose, he was out there breathing through his mouth and doing his best to make plays in his end.

- Hershey’s fourth line of Andrew Joudrey, Steve Pinizzotto, and Oskar Osala was all over the Manitoba end pressuring puck carriers. Pinizzotto was a particular nuisance, finishing checks with gusto and just generally being a pest.

- We could understand the roughing minor Bryan Helmer took in the first period (he took Alexandre Bolduc off with him), but the high-sticking minor at the end of the first? Not good.

- Neuvirth was good – great in fact – when he was tested late, but he spent long stretches of the first two periods getting little work. Hard to keep sharp that way, especially for a young goalie. Credit to Neuvirth for maintaining his edge.

- From the “and a babe shall lead them” file, Hershey has served as an object lesson to the parent club the past couple of nights. You’d be hard-pressed to find a Bear who wasn’t launching his body at a Moose or a puck. Even Mathieu Perreault – all 166 pounds of him (as it says on the web site) – was sticking his nose in there on the forecheck trying to pin Moose defensemen against the walls.

- This might not surprise you, but these teams don’t much like each other. There weren’t many whistles that weren’t following by shoving, yapping, and general exchanges of unpleasantries. It was very entertaining.

- Aucoin played as if he had a dinner of Red Bull casserole. He was all over the ice and had at least a half dozen good scoring opportunities.

- Make no mistake, the Moose were hanging around in this one because of the play of Cory Schneider in goal. For the second straight night, the Moose looked to be badly out of sync at 5-on-5.

The Bears have a chance to do something they haven’t done in 29 years – win the Calder Cup on home ice. To do it, the Bears will have to endure what Coach Bob Woods called in his post-game press conference “the most difficult game of their career.” But with the way Michal Neuvirth is playing (saving 96.1 percent of the shots he’s faced in the playoffs at Giant Center) and the way the Bears are dominating the play at 5-on-5, you have to like their chances.

Like they’re saying in Hershey… “one to go.”

Tuesday night.

And here are some pictures from the event...

The 2008-2009 season, by the "tens" -- Defensemen: Karl Alzner

Karl Alzner

Theme: “You gotta play this game with fear and arrogance.”

So it was that Crash Davis counseled Ebby Calvin LaLoosh before “Nuke” headed off to the show in “Bull Durham.” And so, Karl Alzner got his taste of the show this year, playing 30 games with the Caps when injuries decimated the blue line corps early in the season.

To say it was “up and down” would be a bit of an understatement. Even though the ten-game segments are few, they do reveal a couple of things...


First, Alzner started well – perhaps the adrenaline of getting called up – then faded late in his call-up. He had only one point (an assist) after his 11th game, and he did not register a “plus” game in his last 13, going minus-8 in the process.

Perhaps coincidentally, Alzner’s better “first half” of his call up seemed to coincide with a more physical edge (he had 20 hits in his third and fourth groups of ten, only five in his fifth and sixth). Alzner is not generally described as a physical defenseman, but he does have some size (and could grow a bit more). It might not be the strength of his game – angles and position are – but using that size from time to time could be to his advantage.

At the start of the season, we had this to say about Alzner and other prospect defensemen of recent vintage…

“Since 2000, 16 defensemen have been selected in the top ten overall picks in the entry draft. Two of them – Rostislav Klesla and Jay Bouwmeester – saw action in their first year with their club after being drafted. Another eight saw NHL action in their second year. But here is the thing; through that second year, only Bouwmeester, Joni Pitkanen, Mike Komisarek, and Erik Johnson saw more than 10 regular games in a season with their respective clubs. It doesn’t seem to argue for a long stint with the Caps this year for Alzner, despite his pedigree.”

That Alzner got 30 games with the big club in his first professional season was a product of necessity – injuries. But it says something about his skill and potential that he was able to give as good an account of himself as he did.

What Alzner had, though, was some rather odd splits…

- Alzner might have wished he played in the Northeast Division, or at least played against those teams all the time. He was 1-1-2, plus-7 against the Northeast in 11 games, 0-3-3, minus-8 against everyone else in 19 games.

- As might be expected of a rookie, he had his troubles on the road. While he was 0-1-1, plus-5 in 16 games at Verizon Center, he was 1-3-4, minus-6 on the road.

- He had a brutal time of it against the Rangers; a pair of minus-3 games on his way to 0-1-1, minus-7 in three games against the Blueshirts. We’ll consider ourselves lucky he didn’t dress for the opening round of the playoffs.

Digging a little deeper in comparing him with his defenseman teammates, we find that Alzner held up pretty well in 5-on-5 play. His Corsi rating was second on the team (defensemen, minimum of 30 games played) to Mike Green. Only Tom Poti played against better quality of competition, while Alzner suffered with the worst quality of teammates in posting his numbers. While he did have the second worst goals scored against onice per 60 minutes, his differential of goals for/goals against (0.00) was comparable to Tom Poti (0.00), Shaone Morrison (0.05), and Milan Jurcina (0.10). He was the only defenseman playing at least 30 games who drew more penalties than he took and had, by far, the best penalties taken per 60 minutes number (he took one minor in 30 games).

Alzner is most certainly a work in progress. Even if he makes the Caps opening night roster out of camp next year, he’s probably a couple of years away from being a 24-26 minute a night defenseman who will play in the big shutdown situations. But considering that this is his first year of professional hockey, his production was a pleasant surprise… as long as one keeps in mind that there is a lot of upside yet to fulfill.

We’ll return to the great philosopher, Crash Davis, who once described baseball to Ebby Calvin LaLoosh in these terms – “This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Alzner plays such a simple game, himself, to his credit. It will do him well to remember that as he moves forward.

Grade B+

The 2008-2009 season, by the "tens" -- Wingers: Alexander Semin

Alexander Semin

Theme: “But now I have come to believe that the whole world is an enigma, a harmless enigma that is made terrible by our own mad attempt to interpret it as though it had an underlying truth.”

We’re guessing Umberto Eco, the Italian novelist and philosopher, is not a hockey fan. But if he was, he’d probably appreciate Alexander Semin. And 2008-2009 started with that whole “enigma” thing. It didn’t really stop until the end of the year. Semin got out of the gate faster than Secretariat, going 13-14-27, +17 in his first 15 games, finishing up that run with a 2-3-5, plus-4 night against Carolina. Then he came up lame for the third period of a game against New Jersey on November 14th. In the post game press conference of what would be a 3-1 Capitals win, Coach Bruce Boudreau noted that “he’ll be fine tomorrow, as far as I know.”

Semin missed 12 games.

Upon his return, Semin had points in five straight games (1-4-5, plus-3), and one could be forgiven if he was just going to pick up where he left off. But in that fifth game, against the St. Louis Blues, he was cross-checked from behind by David Backes and reinjured himself.

Semin missed six games.

Then, Semin scored 46 points in his last 41 games. He finished 34-45-79, +25 in 62 games. Projected over an 82-game season, that would be 45-60-105, +33. Tied for third in goals, tied for eighth in assists, third in points, tied for fourth in plus-minus. No one in the league – not Alex Ovechkin, not Evgeni Malkin, not Sidney Crosby – put up an 82-game rate of production like that. Look at his ten-game segments, and you can see the effects of his absence in the third and fourth segments…

He didn’t miss a beat in the playoffs, either, going 5-9-14 in 14 games, thus keeping him on pace as a point-or-better a game player in his playoff career (8-14-22 in 21 games). The Caps were 6-4 in playoff games in which he registered a point, 1-3 in games in which he did not.

But that is part of the enigma that is Alexander Semin.

And we haven’t even mentioned the whole “what’s so special about Crosby?” matter. Or Semin treating the Verizon Center crowd to his bongo stylings against the Rangers on January 3rd…




If you look a little closer at Semin’s numbers, you can get an appreciation for just how gifted he is…

- It’s not like he saved it up to beat up on also-rans. He averaged at least a point a game against the three divisions in the East. He had 13 points against Carolina (an Eastern Conference finalist in the playoffs) in five games, seven points against Pittsburgh (a Stanley Cup finalist) in five games, and five points against Boston (the best record in the East) in four games.

- Remarkably, he was a “plus” player in losses (13-10-23, plus-3 in 23 losses, including those in extra time). If you’re looking for a comparison here, Alex Ovechkin was minus-22 in losses.

- Semin led all Caps forwards in points scored per 60 minutes at even strength (minimum: 50 games). He was second among forwards in the entire league in this measure.

- He was not only first among Caps forwards in goals scored per 60 minutes at even strength, he led all forwards in the entire league.

- That last sentence?...about goals? Well, he led the Caps forwards in primary assists per 60 minutes at even strength and was fifth in the entire league. The four ahead of him are a who’s who of playmakers – Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Marc Savard, and Craig Conroy.

- Semin was second in the entire league among forwards in goals scored for (team) per 60 minutes at even strength (Pavel Datsyuk).

- He was second among all Caps forwards in power play points per 60 minutes (Nicklas Backstrom) and led the team's forwards in both primary and total assists.

The term “under the radar” comes to mind, since Semin doesn’t get much press, at least unless he’s expressing opinions about other players. And there might be a reason for that. Sure, there in the whole language thing – he still seems uncomfortable (or at least unwilling) to do much communicating with the English-speaking media. But there is another reason lurking here.

In three years, Semin’s games played has dropped from 77 to 63 to 62. Ankle and back injuries have limited his time the last two years. Now, we’d probably be calling for mommy ten minutes into a game with all the physical abuse the average NHL player takes, but it really would be something to see what numbers Semin could put up if he played in 15 more games a year. There is also the matter of his coming up on a contract year after the 2009-2010 season, after which he will be a restricted free agent. If he plays 80 or so games and puts up numbers approximating the pace at which he scored this year, he’s in for a big payday. But if he plays only 60-65 games again, you have to wonder if anyone will really take a chance on bumping up his compensation past the $4.6 million he will earn next year. This year, however, Semin showed that he is certainly in the elite class of players on the offensive side of the ledger and at least competent – production wise – in other phases of the game… when he’s healthy.

Health, comments out of left field, a fighting style that is “early grade school” (as opposed to “old school”), packaged with what might be the most sublime set of offensive gifts on the Capitals roster… as Churchill put it – describing Russia as it turns out – it is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.

Grade: B+

She's not going down without a fight

The last roof truss was pulled down yesterday on the Buffalo Memorial Auditorium, one of the great hockey arenas of yesteryear. Even in the video and pictures below, you get the feeling that "The Aud" is not going down easily. They built 'em tough in those days...

Bears Win! -- Calder Cup Final, Game 3: Bears 3 - Moose 0

Solid.

The Hershey Bears played 60 solid minutes of hockey to beat the Manitoba Moose at Giant Center and take a 2-1 lead in the Calder Cup final series. Despite the pace of play being up-and-down the ice for much of the evening, there weren’t a lot of scoring opportunities at even strength for either team (although Hershey had the majority of them). The game was decided on special teams, where the Bears were able to convert two of three power play opportunities, while Manitoba was shooting blanks on five man-advantage situations.

It is said that your best penalty killer has to be your goaltender, and Michal Neuvirth certainly was that for the Bears. In pitching the shutout, Neuvirth denied the Moose on nine power play shots, including several chances on a 5-on-3 the Moose enjoyed early in the second period with the Bears clinging to a 1-0 lead. Neuvirth was cat-quick all night in moving from post to post and was especially sharp with his glove hand, frustrating many Moose… uh, Mooses… (and we know this from watching Moose skating back to their bench muttering to themselves). Neuvirth did not come by his first star of the night by accident; he earned his recognition.

It might be said that the Bears were luckier in some respects. Their two power play goals were scored off a goal mouth redirection (Graham Mink) and a one timer that Manitoba goalie Cory Schneider almost got enough of to keep it out of the net (Alexandre Giroux). The last goal was an empty netter by the hardest working man in hockey – Quintin Laing, who is still throwing his body in front of shots. Otherwise, Cory Schneider was just as sharp for the Moose, but the operative word there is, “otherwise.”

The Bears had chances, to be sure. Graham Mink had the puck at the doorstep early in the first period but couldn’t solve Schneider. Jay Beagle had room on the far side of Schneider late in the first, but Schneider got a blocker on his drive to send the puck into the corner. In the second minute of the second period, Schneider denied Giroux twice as the Bear was skating across the top of the crease. Andrew Gordon had a breakaway that could have given the Bears a 3-0 lead late in the third, but the puck wouldn’t behave for him, and his chance went wide of the net.

Among the other Bears, Staffan Kronwall had an especially solid game from the blue line, contributing two assists, but playing a simple game in his own end, too.

Giroux did what guys at this time of year have to do, and that’s more than score. He leveled a Moose at the Hershey line that got a roar from the sellout crowd.

John Carlson clearly has talent. Based on what we saw tonight, he’s also clearly not ready for a jump to the big time. He was just hesitant enough on a few decisions to turn the puck over and give the Moose some momentum.

Chris Bourque is one feisty little cuss. But sometimes, we wonder what he’s thinking, too. There were a few ill-timed passes through the middle of the ice of the sort that can make a goaltender’s night more difficult than it has to be. But there was Bourque at the end of the game, skating after Pierre-Cedric Labrie – seven inches taller and 35 pounds heavier – barking at him for Labrie’s trying to start a ruckus with anyone in a Bear jersey after the final horn.

Karl Alzner looked rusty. Small wonder, given how much time he’s missed. But even with that, Alzner has a knack for making the simple, correct play.

Oskar Osala never seemed to get into the rhythm of the game. He was looking for Moose to hit and pucks to shoot, but always seemed to be just late in arriving where he could do some damage.

Before the game started, there was played on the video board an excerpt from Manitoba coach Scott Arniel’s press conference after Manitoba’s 3-1 win in Game 2. He made mention of the fact that the Moose would be heading for Hershey, where the crowd was not likely to be as loud as that at MTS Centre. Well, we’ve never been to MTS Centre, but it was plenty loud in Giant Center.

We’re tempted to say that there was a healthy contingent from Caps land. There were quite a few folks in the parking lot before the game sporting red Capitals jerseys, and there was quite a line of tail lights headed south on cars with Virginia and Maryland license plates after the game.

We were in the first row along the glass for this one, the first time we’ve had that experience. It certainly makes for a different look and feel (not to mention sound) of the game than seeing it from the balcony, as we do for Caps games.

The Koharski tradition is in safe hands. Don might have retired, but his brother Terry is picking up the mantle of doofusness. There were times in this one when Koharski was less a referee and more a third defenseman for the Moose, blocking several attempts by Bears on the same shift to send the puck deep around the boards. Terry… get the crullers outta yer ass, already.

That’s three shutouts in Neuvirth’s last five games on Giant Center ice, and he might have had a fourth, but Brad Marchand scored a goal with 36 seconds left in a 2-1 Bears win over Providence in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference final. Neuvirth is now third in the playoffs in GAA, sixth in save percentage, first in shutouts, and most important, first in wins.

Hershey is still in a position to win the series without having to get on an airplane any more. But that won’t be easy. Manitoba had their chances, but Neuvirth had the answer for all of them tonight. Now, they do it all again tomorrow.

The 2008-2009 season, by the "tens" -- Wingers: Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin

Theme: “A gem is not polished without rubbing, nor a man perfected without trials”

So, a Chinese proverb applied to a Russian playing in a North American hockey league. Well, hockey is a global sport. But the point here is that Alex Ovechkin, despite having what for mere mortals would be a career year, slipped a notch this year, both in numbers and perception, and might very well see his nemesis – Sidney Crosby – skate around the ice with the Stanley Cup secure in his embrace before next week is out. Let’s compare last year to this…


Ovechkin played in three fewer games this year, but Alex Ovechkin was, and remains, the most dynamic force in the National Hockey League – over 130 feet of ice. From his own blue line to the opponent’s end boards, he is a threat every time he touches the puck, whether it is taking the puck at his own line and rushing up ice with a defenseman desperately trying to figure out what to do, or if it is his one timer from the left wing circle beating a goaltender before he can get across the crease, Ovechkin is the best in hockey. He was perhaps the most consistently productive offensive force in the game, as evidenced by his ten-game segments…


But…

There are two sets of numbers from the regular season that are a bit disturbing. First, there is the matter of Ovechkin going minus-7 over his last 21 games, despite his also going 12-19-31. How does such a thing happen? Well, he did earn almost half of those points on the power play (5-9-14) -- no plusses there. But one couldn’t help but think there was “coasting” aspect to his game, too. 13 of those last 21 games were played against familiar foes – teams in the Southeast Division. In those games, he was 6-14-20, but he was also a minus-7.

Then there is the matter of his turnover ratio. His giveaway total was higher this year than last, and his takeaway total was lower. Expressed as a ratio of takeaways to giveaways, Ovechkin dropped from 0.73 to 0.56. Ovechkin plays something of a high-risk game on offense and much of that offense goes through him, but that’s a rather precipitous increase in his generosity with the puck.

Let’s be clear here, we are not talking about a standard against which the average hockey player is compared. It is the high bar Ovechkin has set by virtue of his performance over his first three years. And in many ways, he topped that bar…

- Of the 16 opponents against which he played at least two games, he had points against 15 of them (he, and the other Caps, came up short against Columbus). Perhaps more remarkable – and another expression of his consistency – he had goals against 15 of those teams.

- The day of the week didn’t seem to matter in terms of his scoring: 19 points on Tuesdays, 19 points on Wednesdays, 18 on Thursdays, 13 on Fridays, 21 on Saturdays, 15 on Sundays. Like most of us, Mondays didn’t set well with him; he had “only” five points in five Monday contests.

- Against the other seven playoff teams in the East, Ovechkin played in 36 games and went 18-24-42, +7. He had no fewer than two goals or four points against any of those clubs, averaging at least a point a game against all of them.

- He was the fuel that fired wins – in the 49 wins in which he played, Ovechkin had 46 goals and 83 points.

Drilling further into his numbers, Ovechkin was second on the team among forwards (50 games, minimum) in 5-on-5 points scored per 60 minutes of play. He was, however, slightly below last year’s number (2.86 vs. 3.00). Ditto for goals – his 1.57 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time was second on the team, but slightly below his number for last year (1.68). His Corsi rating, however, was much better this year (19.0 versus 13.0). However, he saw his goals scored against per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time increase dramatically, from 2.56 to 2.91. Since the comparable goals scored figure did not change much (down from 3.79 to 3.72), his goal differential per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 dropped from +1.23 to +0.81. Of course, such things are relative – many players in the NHL (not to mention coaches) would kill for players averaging almost a goal more scored than allowed per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Nevertheless, as we said, the bar that Ovechkin has set for himself is high indeed.

But drilling down uncovers another odd number. Let’s consider what we might call “elite” forwards. For purposes of this comparison, we’ll select 10 from that group that would include Evgeni Malkin, Jarome Iginla, Joe Thornton, Eric Staal, Henrik Zetterberg, Zach Perise, Marian Hossa, Patrick Kane, Sidney Crosby, and Pavel Datsyuk. In terms of the ratio of penalties drawn to penalties taken at 5-on-5, Ovechkin’s ration of 1.24 is worse than any of those ten players:


Part of that might be style (Ovechkin is the biggest hitter of that bunch, one who initiates contact) or position (centers seem to dominate this list), but Ovechkin would only be fifth on this list in terms of drawing penalties, too. Caps fans will argue here that this is evidence of Ovechkin not getting his share of calls.

Although there were the fun moments -- the skills competiton in the All-Star Game when he hammed it up with the aid of Evgeni Malkin comes to mind -- Ovechkin had, even for an elite player, some difficulties this year. The passing of his grandfather early in the season no doubt weighed on him some. He had his longest career goal-less streak – nine games – as his grandfather’s condition worsened (he returned to Russia to be with him in the midst of this streak and missed two games). There was the sniping of Don Cherry and his ilk over goal celebrations, whispers of Ovechkin being something of a “cherry-picker,” and what some felt was an early playoff exit despite his netting 11 goals in 14 games to go with a plus-10 (8-6-14, plus-5 in the seven game Pittsburgh series). It was Sidney Crosby that advanced out of that second round, not Ovechkin, which undoubtedly will lead many – including the entire Canadian media contingent, we’re thinking – that Crosby has supplanted Ovechkin as the best hockey player on the planet (ok, there will be those Malkin fans, too).

The gripes are nit-picking, to a point. Ovechkin is the most compelling force in hockey, on and off the ice. But he hasn’t led his team (yet) any further than 17 of the other 19 playoff teams in Capitals history. And he does have work to do in terms of becoming a two-way player, or at least enough of one so that teammates can follow his lead (ok, yes…like that guy in Pittsburgh).

Next year will be a telling year in the career of Alex Ovechkin. He will be 24 years old when the season ends. That’s barely getting started in most walks of life, but looking at the greats – Gretzky won his first Cup at age 23, Mario Lemieux at 25, Maurice Richard at 22, Bobby Orr at 21, Gordie Howe at 21. The window is open for Ovechkin to join those greats, and to be mentioned in the same breath as them, he will have to have his name engraved on the same piece of hardware. It’s not all on Ovechkin; a team has to be built around him, just as it has been done in Pittsburgh around Sidney Crosby (age 21), and that is a job for the folks in the front office. But for this year, Ovechkin showed once more that he is elite among the elite in the NHL… but not without flaws that need to be polished and trials that had to be endured.

Grade: A-

The 2008-2009 season, by the "tens" -- Wingers: Brooks Laich

Brooks Laich

Theme: “…someone’s gotta do it.”

When you’re the return in a trade for a local hockey icon, chances are your journey in your new city is going to be a bit bumpy. For Brooks Laich, the return in a trade sending Peter Bondra to Ottawa in February 2004, the road was a bit bumpy. And in his first 150 games with the Caps over three seasons, it was just that – 15-24-39, -12 on teams that didn’t perform very well. Then last year, Laich took a big step up – 21-16-37, -3, eight power play goals, four game-winners, and six more points in seven playoff games. It got him an “A-“ from this corner last year.

With that step up, Laich grew into something of a cult hero among Capitals fans, becoming the local version of Chuck Norris. That aside, his season last year created some expectations this year, perhaps improving on the sort of production out of the third line that has eluded the team since Steve Konowalchuk averaged 17-22-39, +8 over a six year period in the 1990’s. In fact, Laich did improve on last year’s numbers, going 23-30-53, -1, with nine power play goals, three game-winners, and once more skating in all 82 games. He chipped in another three goals and seven points in 14 playoff games. His ten-game segments went like this…


What steps off the page is the matter of his consistency. Five to seven points per segment, for the most part. At least one goal scored in seven of the eight full segments (not altogether bad for a checking line forward). At least one power play goal in five of the eight full segments (not bad, considering he was fifth in average power play ice time among forwards). At least ten hits in six of eight segments. Between 20 and 30 shots on goal in six of eight segments. He registered at least one point in 40 of 82 games. He played at least two games against 17 teams and scored against 15 of them.

If there was one thing distinguishing about Laich it was that he liked home cooking – 11-21-32, +5 at Verizon Center, 12-9-21, -6 on the road.

He also seems to be a “Patrick” sort of player, at least this year. The Atlantic Division is made up of teams that used to share a division address with the Caps – the Patrick Division – and Laich had an especially good year against that group: 8-11-19 in 20 games, including a 2-4-6 line against Pittsburgh in four games.

Drilling down further, Laich was a competent enough scorer at even strength – fifth among the team’s forwards (50 games minimum) in goals scored per 60 minutes and seventh in total points per 60 minutes of ice time. But on the power play, Laich was fourth among forwards in total scoring per 60 minutes and was fourth – ahead of Alexander Semin – in goals scored per 60 minutes.

What Laich was able to do better than any Capital forward was draw penalties. His differential of penalties drawn per 60 minutes to penalties taken of +1.2 tied for the team lead (Eric Fehr). But his ratio of penalties drawn to those taken – 4.6:1 – was by far the best among forwards. And that gets to the heart of the matter. More than most, perhaps all Caps forwards, Laich stuck his nose into high-traffic areas, the sort of places one has to go to draw fouls. He had the shortest average shooting distance among Caps forwards, although this is damning with faint praise – Laich was 57th in the league among forwards playing more than 50 games in this measure. The Caps were the hockey equivalent of a jump-shooting team in basketball.

Goal scoring by Laich has turned into something of an intriguing attribute. He’s gone from eight to 21 to 23, a signal that perhaps there is some more upside there. But it is the variety expressed in his 23 goals this year that makes for intrigue about his possibilities. Even strength goals among forwards? Third, behind the Alexes. Power play goals? Third (Ovechkin, Backstrom). First goals? Third (the Alexes again). Game winners? Fourth. If Laich can squeeze a goal or two out of each situational category, he could be the next 30-goal scorer for the Caps.

Laich has shown himself to be versatile – able to play any of the forward positions (he was fourth on the team at 51.1 percent on draws, despite spending most of his time on the wing). He’s been opportunistic, as evidenced by his production in a variety of situations. He’s been durable, playing in all 82 games the past two seasons. He’s been responsible, taking only 13 minor penalties in those 82 games this year (compare that to 16 for Michael Nylander in 72 games and 11 for Chris Clark in 32 games). Being responsible didn’t keep him from exerting a measure of physical play – fourth among Caps forwards with 99 hits.

Laich’s production in the playoffs – 3-4-7, even, in 14 games – was roughly consistent with his regular season pace of scoring. And he did tie for second among Cap forwards in power play goals (two). He could have used some help, but in the end it became evident that the Caps just didn’t have another forward to do the dirty work in difficult areas of the ice. It was dirty work, and someone had to do it. This season, Laich did. But the Caps will need more of it next year – from him and others. He didn’t have quite the leap in production this year that he had last, but it was still a good year.

Grade: A-

Old Cap, New Coach

On the heels of the Colorado Avalanche firing Tony Granato and five others in the organization, former Capital Joe Sacco has been named head coach for the Avs.

Sacco played for 13 seasons in the NHL with five teams. He played in 213 regular season games over three seasons with the Caps, going 14-30-44, -2, with 149 penalty minutes earned.

Promoted from the Colorado affiliate Lake Erie Monsters the past two years, he joins Craig Billington -- a former Caps goalie -- who is assistant general manager for Colorado. Congrats, Joe.

A Hall of Famer..."surprised and disappointed"

Tom Glavine was released by the Atlanta Braves yesterday. Glavine, a 22-year veteran of major league baseball, has won 305 games over the course of his career, including five 20-win seasons. He can also point to eight all-star games, two Cy Young Awards, and a World Series most valuable player award on his resume. He is, by any definition of the term, one of the all time greats in major league baseball history. He responded to his release by texting, “I’m surprised and disappointed. I’m ready to pitch.”

But as any hockey fan probably knows, baseball wasn't the only thing in which Glavine had talent. Glavine was a fourth-round draft pick of the Los Angeles Kings in 1984 (69th overall) after putting up 47 goals and earning the Merrimack Valley Conference most valuable player trophy with Billerica (MA) Memorial High School.

Glavine was drafted ahead of such notables as Brett Hull (6th round/117th overall), Luc Robitaille (9/171), and Gary Suter (9/180) in the 1984 draft.

Glavine, although he is 43 years old, might be "surprised and disappointed" over his release from the Braves, but he doesn't sound like a guy ready to hang up his spikes. Sounds like a hockey player.

Thanks to SpeedKillz over at The Official for reminding us of Glavine's previous life.

The 2008-2009 season, by the "tens" -- Wingers: Viktor Kozlov

Viktor Kozlov

Theme: “Good enough never is.”

Chances are, if you look up the word, “enigma,” in the dictionary, you will find a picture of Viktor Kozlov. Despite almost universal opinion that he has extraordinary skill, he has been a thoroughly ordinary player over the course of his career. He has never had more than 25 goals (more than 20 only twice), never had more than 70 points (more than 60 only once). And this year, he took a big step back from his first year with the Caps in 2007-2008. A look at his ten-game segments paints a picture…

Kozlov was building a pretty nice season in his first 40 games -- not great, "nice" -- improving in each ten-game segment so that through 40 games he was on a pace to go 20-37-57 (if he played all of his games for the rest of the year), which would be consistent with his previous year’s numbers (16-38-54). But Kozlov had a miserable second half. In his next ten games he went 2-2-4. Then, he sustained a groin injury and missed nine games. After that, he was 2-8-10, -6 in his last 20 games.

And even in those 20 games, there was enough exasperation to go around. He had multi-point games against Nashville (two assists), Tampa Bay (three assists), and Buffalo (two assists). But he managed only goals against Florida and Atlanta and was a minus player in half of those last 20 games. He had only two power play points in that stretch (compared to 2-11-13 in on the power play in his first 47 games).

Overall, his numbers weren’t there against top-flight competition. Against the other seven playoff teams in the East, Kozlov was 3-7-10, -4 in 24 games (10-21-31, -5 against everyone else in 43 games). He did fare somewhat better in the playoffs, going 4-2-6, +5 in 14 games, including four points and plus-5 in the seven-game Pittsburgh series. It serve to underline that there was so much room between Kozlov’s talent and his production this year.

If you look at the sort of measures collected at behindthenet.ca, we’d find that his production was, again, rather mediocre. Among Caps forwards playing at least 50 games, he was eighth in points scored-per-60 minutes at even strength. That is disappointing, considering he spent most of his time skating on a line with Alex Ovechkin this year. That point is driven home by the fact that he was ninth among those forwards in total assists-per-60 minutes at even strength, barely eclipsing the production of David Steckel, who is not employed to be a playmaker.

Look at other numbers, continue to be disappointed. Kozlov was dead last on the team in plus-minus. He was worst on the team in goals scored against on ice-per-60 minutes at even strength. He was seventh on the team among forwards in goals scored for-on-ice per 60 minutes (50 games played minimum) while at even strength.

Then look at some other numbers, and be exasperated some more. In the playoffs, Kozlov – not generally thought to be much of a stalwart in terms of defensive play – had the best (as in “fewest”) goals scored against-per-60 minutes at even strength among Capital forwards playing in at least ten of the 14 playoff games. He was second in differential (goals scored for/goals scored against per 60 minutes) at +1.79 (Alex Ovechkin, +2.44). Kozlov – who until this year had never so much as scored a single playoff goal – was second on the team in goals scored per 60 minutes at even strength. He was second overall among Caps forwards in plus-minus.

Kozlov is as confounding a player as confounding gets. He has the talent to dominate at this level of play, but never has. And he is too far along in his career – now, it seems, destined to continue in Russia – to expect him to change. At times he can embarrass a goalie with a flick of his wrists, or he can settle the team down by using his size and puck handling skills to dictate the pace and lug the puck into scoring territory.

But there are other times, on display much too often, when Kozlov seems to be putting forth the sort of effort one finds in a recreation league (with apologies to those dedicated fans of the sport). He seems to be going through the motions, content to skate his shifts without mission or purpose. He is the gifted student who seems to get by with “good enough.”

Kozlov’s playoff performance redeemed, to a point, an indifferent regular season that saw his plus-minus plunge by 37 points (from plus-28 to minus-9), while his scoring dropped in terms of points-per-game (from 0.67 to 0.61). But that should not be interpreted as his having an outstanding post season. It was merely better than what he did in the first 82-game segment of the season, which was marred by a poor second half. His regular season looks a little too much like Lee Stempniak (14-30-44, -12 in 75 games). We think having to make that comparison in the context of Kozlov’s skill is one that should never be made.

Kozlov is very hard to grade because of his inconsistency, his flashes of artistry interspersed with stretches of seeming indifference. Last year, we gave Kozlov a B-, largely because of his consistency. This year, we could have gone anywhere from a C+ to a failing grade. We split the difference, more or less...well, less than the "Gentleman's 'C'."

Grade: C-

Math Lesson

The last team to lose Games 1 and 2 on the road and win the Cup -- the Montreal Canadiens over the Chicago Blackhawks... 38 years ago.

And overall, it's 41 of 44 times (93.2 percent). These are not good numbers for folks of a black and Vegas gold persuasion.

The 2008-2009 season, by the "tens" -- Wingers: Tomas Fleischmann

Tomas Fleischmann

Theme: “Suspense is worse than disappointment.”

Leave it to a Scot to provide the theme for a Czech, but Robert Burns gives us both sides of the coin with respect to Tomas Fleischmann. If you look passively at his line for the season – 19-18-37, -3 in 73 games – you might be inclined to think, “not bad for a 24-year old (he turned 25 two weeks ago) with less than 120 games of experience coming into the season.” In fact, he beat our projection for the year.

However, his season fades somewhat as one starts drilling into his numbers. First, his season by the tens suggests early success and late changes…

In fact, his season does seem to break cleanly into halves. In the first half, Fleischmann played in 32 games and went 12-7-19. He looked as if he’d add his name to the 30-goal scorers that Caps employ. But along with the scoring, Fleischmann was a -11 in those 32 games. Worse, he was a minus player in 14 of those 32 games. It was mixed fruit in terms of results.

In the second half, Fleischmann skated in all 41 games, and his plus-minus improved to +8. But his scoring fell off to 7-11-18. And, if one further decomposes the last half, he was 4-8-12, +13 in the first half of that and 3-3-6, -5 in the latter half. That latter half of games in the second half saw a 14-game streak in which Fleischmann failed to register a point. The slide continued into the playoffs, where Fleischman was 3-1-4, even, in 14 games.

It was not a strong finish.

If one digs even further into Fleischmann’s numbers, one finds… a mess. Scoring? He was fifth among Capitals forwards (minimum: 50 games) in five-on-five points-per-60 minutes. It’s what you’d want from a “top six” forward. But… he was third worst among forwards in goals scored against at five-on-five per 60 minutes. He was second in quality of competition (source: behindthenet.ca). But… he was eighth in Corsi rating, ahead of only the checkers and Brooks Laich.

There are also certain mysteries about Fleischmann’s numbers, and they have to do with special teams. Fleischmann was fifth among forwards in penalty killing ice time per game. One might be forgiven for wondering, “why?” Among Caps forwards playing at least 50 games, he had the third worst goals scored against per 60 minutes total. And given that Michael Nylander and Donald Brashear (the two guys he beat out) skated a total of 1:53 shorthanded all season, well…

The power play isn’t as much a mystery as it is a bit of a head-scratcher. Fleischmann was seventh on the team in average ice time on the power play. He was also seventh on the team in points scored per 60 minutes on the power play. He had a total of two power play points (both goals) in the second half of the year, whereas he had eight (5-3-8) in the first half (32 games played).

The good news, though, is that in just about every respect, Fleischmann improved on his career-best numbers to date. He went from 10 to 19 goals, from 30 to 37 points, bettered his plus-minus from minus-6 (in 2006-2007, but in only 29 games) to minus-3, increased his power play goals from one to seven, increased his game-winning goals from one to four, improved his shooting percentage from 9.3 percent to 14.5 percent, improved his takeaway/giveaway ratio from 1.38 to 1.56.

But while there were statistical improvements, there was a somewhat disturbing aspect to his numbers. He was 12-10-22 in 41 wins for which he dressed, and he was 7-8-15 in 32 losses. While he did score more in wins, it isn’t that large a spread (by way of comparison, to pick a player at random, Viktor Kozlov was 11-21-32 in 43 wins, 2-7-9 in 24 losses). It suggests that Fleischmann wasn’t all that much of a difference maker in terms of his scoring contributing to wins. There are factors that could influence that, such as ice time, participation on special teams, etc. It’s worth noting, too, that the Caps were 9-0-0 in games Fleischmann missed. That’s not the sort of difference-making the Caps or their fans would like to see.

The improvements in Fleischmann’s numbers are indicative of a player who still has upside, and the suspense is in finding out just how much of it there is. But there is also a sense that the season, especially the last 35 games or so (including the playoffs) was a disappointment. Those numbers suggest a player who was running out of gas. Fleischmann might be deemed a bargain at $725,000, but he’s also been given a lot of chances to grab a top-six spot. His numbers to date, including those this year, aren’t at that level of production – his scoring numbers were roughly equivalent among forwards with Dallas’ James Neal and Pittsburgh’s Miroslav Satan. If Fleischmann can cobble together a season that reflected the pace he set in the first half – it would have projected to 32-17-49 – he would be a fairly good complement to the forward lines. But he is also a skill winger on a club with two world-class wingers on its roster. Is Fleischmann one-too-many for his level of production? We’ll see. For this year, though…

Grade: C

Calder Cup Final - Game 1: Hershey Bears 5 - Manitoba Moose 4 (OT)

For video highlights...

...check these out.

The 2008-2009 season, by the "tens" -- Wingers: Eric Fehr

Eric Fehr

Theme: “…in this immense confusion one thing alone is clear. We are waiting for Godot to come.”


Somewhere in there, there is a goal scorer. Somewhere in there, there is a player who has hands soft enough to gather up passes and quick enough to snap off wrist shots that leave goalies picking pucks from the back of their nets. Caps fans got a glimpse of that with Eric Fehr this year, but only a glimpse. Whether it was a product of ice time (or the lack of it) or failure to grab opportunity by the throat when he did get ice time, Fehr netted only 12 goals in this, his first “full” season with the Caps.

But his ten-game segments are somewhat revealing in a promising sort of way…


Fehr potted nine goals in his last 32 games, a 23-goal pace over 82 games. That’s not bad for a guy who only once in those last 32 games played as many as 15 minutes in a game and who averaged only 11:30 a game in that stretch. Most of that output was earned in games 51-60 (the sixth ten-game segment), when Fehr went 6-4-10, +7. It wasn’t as if he skated a lot more – he averaged 12 minutes a game over those ten games. But, Fehr shot the puck more. He had, by far, his highest shot total of any ten-game segment (29) and his best shooting percentage (20.7 percent).

The statistics are, as they often can be, misleading. Fehr feasted on the Southeast Division this year, going 8-1-9, +5 in 20 games against the weak sisters of the division. Against everyone else, he was 4-12-16, +3 in 41 games. He did not have a goal against a Western Conference opponent in ten games.

On the other hand, Fehr had some rather surprising numbers. Among Caps forwards playing in at least 50 games…

- He had the second best Corsi rating (behind only Sergei Fedorov)

- He was third in goals scored per 60 minutes (Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin)

- He was fourth in total assists per 60 minutes (Nicklas Backstrom, Ovechkin, Semin, Michael Nylander)

- He led the team in penalties drawn per 60 minutes and tied Brooks Laich for penalties drawn/penalties taken per 60 minutes differential.

- He did this without the benefit of top-end teammates. In the behindthenet.ca five-on-five quality of teammate measure, only David Steckel, Matt Bradley, Boyd Gordon, and Donald Brashear had lower numbers, a reflection of those four being checking/energy line forwards.

There is a “what happened?” aspect to Fehr’s game this year, and it is reflected in the playoffs. Fehr averaged only 11:14 of ice time for the year, but come the playoffs, it was cut further. In eight full games (he was hurt in game two against the Penguins and did not appear for the rest of that series), Fehr averaged barely eight minutes of ice time a game and only once topped ten minutes (a 4-0 Game 5 win over the Rangers). It is little wonder that his numbers sank to nothing – no points and minus-3 for his playoffs. He netted only 10 shots on goal, none after Game 6 of the Ranger series.

Fehr is an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent this summer. With the Caps losing perhaps as many as three forwards – Sergei Fedorov, Viktor Kozlov, and Donald Brashear – to Russia’s Kontinental Hockey League, there will be room on the team heading into the 2009-2010 season. There will be opportunity to grab a fistful of ice time, and the Caps certainly need a bigger forward who can find the back of the net and play responsibly (Fehr has never been a “minus” player in the NHL in parts of four seasons). Fehr scored 146 goals in 275 games with Brandon in Canadian juniors. He netted 50 goals in 161 games with Hershey in the AHL. He’s demonstrated he can be a goal scorer, even in the NHL in limited time.

What he hasn’t demonstrated is an ability to stay healthy or to score goals on a consistent basis, despite the lack of ice time. We have to think the club will qualify Fehr for next season. Although we’ve been waiting for that player who scored 50 or more goals in consecutive seasons in Brandon to appear here, it might be that his time is about to arrive, even if he’ll never be a 50-goal scorer in the NHL. We’ve been waiting for Godot long enough. He has to show up… now.

Grade: B-

The 2008-2009 season, by the "tens" -- Wingers: Chris Clark

Chris Clark

Theme: “…regards to Captain Dunsel”

Chris Clark is the kind of player any team with Stanley Cup aspirations has – needs to have – on its team. He hits, he checks, he forechecks, he stands up for teammates, he pays a price to make a play, he doesn’t take a shift off. He’s also missed 114 games the past two seasons, 50 of them this year (plus six of 14 in the playoffs). For the team captain, that has to be agonizing, doubly so for a player with Clark’s work ethic.

But while Clark was dressing for only 32 games this year, the Caps were setting a franchise record for standings points, tied a team record for wins, and finished third in scoring. Clark’s having scored 50 goals over 152 games in his first two seasons with the club looks like a distant memory. What’s more, Clark’s presence in the lineup this year was something of a drag on the club. In his 32 games, the Caps were 17-15 (losses including those in extra time). His ten-game splits lack any sense of continuity…



We didn’t think Clark would come all the way back from his career years in 2005-2006 and 2006-2007. But we couldn’t have foreseen his having another season that looked hauntingly like last one. In this nightmare of a season…

- Clark returned from his injury plagued 2007-2008 season to play in 20 of the Caps’ first 21 games. But he was only 0-3-3, -5 in those games, then missed 14 games with a fractured forearm.

- Clark scored his only goal on New Year’s Day, in the midst of a stretch in which he played in 12 of 14 games.

- Then, he finally succumbed to a problem he’d had since training camp – a torn tendon sheath in his wrist that required surgery and put him on the shelf for the last 33 games of the regular season.

It all ended up reflected in his final numbers – second worst among forwards (minimum 30 games) in his Corsi rating, second worst in goals scored per 60 minutes, worst in primary assists per 60 minutes, second worst in goals scored for the Caps per 60 minutes of ice time, second worst in penalties taken per 60 minutes of ice time (although he was second best in drawing them). In 2006-2007, when Clark was on his way to a 30-goal season, he skated less than 15 minutes in only four of 74 games. This past year, he skated more than 15 minutes only four times in 32 games and only once after October 23rd.

And perhaps most disturbing, in the last 23 games in which he skated this season, he accumulated 30 minutes in penalties (10 minors, two five-minute majors). In was a trend that emerged in his injury-stunted 2007-2008 season (43 PIMs in 18 games). That might have been “cheating” of a sort as a product of the injuries through which he was trying to play. But discipline has been a problem for these Caps for two years, and the Captain being a part of that is not the sort of “lead by example” the team needs, either.

And what had to be especially frustrating for Clark and the Caps was that on both occasions he went on the shelf for long stretches, he appeared to be coming out of his points-scored funk, if not his goal scoring drought. He had assists in consecutive games on November 19th and 20th against Anaheim and Los Angeles before going down to injury two games later. Then, he had consecutive games with assists once more on January 20th and 27th against Ottawa and Boston before going down for the remainder of the regular season after the Boston game.

Clark has two more seasons on a contract that will pay him $2.633 million a year. At age 33, one wonders if the injuries haven’t taken a disproportionate toll on his game, which relies on toughness and a grinding style. He was getting the ice time of a fourth liner at the time he went down to injury, which really is no place for the captain. He has shown an ability to be opportunistic, evidenced by his netting those 50 goals in two seasons playing the opposite wing from Alex Ovechkin. Whether he can regain his health to be something approaching that player next year will go a long way to determining how far the Caps go. For now, though, you don’t want to downgrade a player because of his injury absences, but this wasn’t the Chris Clark Caps fans had become accustomed to when he was playing, either. Has his absence and lack of production the last two years turned him into "Captain Dunsel?" Hopefully, he can heal this off season and put the bad taste of the last two years out of his memory.

Grade: C-

stats from behindthenet.ca

The 2008-2009 season, by the "tens" -- Wingers: Donald Brashear

Donald Brashear

Theme: “a distinction without a difference”

The Caps were 37-26 (losses including extra time defeats) with Donald Brashear in the lineup this past season. They were 13-6 in his absence. This is not the result one might be looking for in a difference maker. Looking at his ten-game segments, he registered at least ten penalty minutes in six of seven segments (he did not play in the last 14 games of the regular season), was a minus player in five of seven segments, did not register a point in the last 50 games of the regular season after December 16th, and scored his only goal on December 4th…



The 2008-2009 season represented Brashear’s lowest goal total (one) since failing to register a single tally in the 1995-1996 season. It was his lowest point total since that same 1995-1996 season. Among players appearing in at least ten games he was worst on the club in minutes played per minor penalty taken (23.6). Compare that to a Matt Bradley – who had two fewer fighting majors – who skated for more than 122 minutes per minor penalty taken (fifth best among players appearing in at least ten games).

With respect to enforcement duties, Brashear played in ten games in which he earned a fighting major (he had two in a December 20th game against the Flyers). The Caps were 5-3-2 in those games. More to the point is where those penalties came in those games:

Oct. 10 (vs. ATL): 19:40, 3rd period. The Caps were already trailing Atlanta, 7-4, and would lose by that score.

Oct. 25 (vs. DAL): 15:59, 2nd period. This penalty came immediately after the faceoff following a Dallas Stars goal that made the score 4-3. There would be no more scoring in that second period. The teams traded a pair of goals each, the last being Alexander Semin’s game-winner in overtime in a 6-5 win.

Nov. 6 (vs. CAR): 16:45, 1st period. Carolina scored early in the first to take a 1-0 lead. This lead would hold up until this infraction and through the period. The Caps would score early in the second to tie the game, but Carolina would regain the lead later in the period. The Caps scored twice late in the third period to win, 3-2.

Nov 19 (vs. ANA): 2:46, 2nd period. This was another of the “ensuing faceoff” variety, coming just after Washington scored to make the score 4-2. The Caps would score once more in the period (at 17:48), then score the next goal mid-way through the third period to take a 6-2 lead. They would go on to win, 6-4.

Nov. 22 (vs. SJS): 3:24, 1st period. If one of the reasons for fisticuffs is to grab momentum or give your team a charge, this didn’t so it. San Jose scored three goals after this in the first period and never looked back in a 7-2 win.

Dec. 20 (vs. PHL): 7:38, 1st period; 12:03, 3rd period. The first battle of two battles in this one – both against the Flyers’ Riley Cote – came with the Flyers already ahead, 1-0. It was lost in a 25-shot barrage the Caps leveled at Flyer goalie Antero Niittymaki. The second scrap might have been of the “frustration” variety, the Flyers having built a 6-1 lead by the time Brashear and Cote went at it again. The Flyers won, 7-1.

Jan. 27 (vs. BOS): 9:39, 3rd period. Brashear was the opponent for Byron Bitz’ first NHL fight in what was at the time a 2-2 game in Boston. It didn’t seem especially important to the result, as the teams went to an overtime before the Bruins came out on top, 3-2.

Feb. 11 (vs. NYR): 2:43, 1st period. This was one of your odd ones. Brashear had just gone off after a three-second shift in a scoreless game, then came right back on to take on Colton Orr. One could say he squared off on his first shift. Then, Matt Bradley did the same thing three seconds later, taking on Aaron Voros. Neither bout seemed especially influential on the flow of the play, although the Caps did take a 2-1 lead into the locker room after one period. The Rangers won, though, in a Gimmick, 5-4.

Feb. 26 (vs. ATL): 2:52, 2nd period. This was one of those bouts that seems to have had an unintended effect. Coming when it did, with the Caps nursing a 2-1 lead in the second period, it might have given the Atlanta Thrashers some life (or maybe not). The Thrashers scored just over a minute later. But the Caps had the last laugh in a 4-3 win.

Mar. 10 (vs. NAS): 12:27, 1st period. In what would be, by contemporary standards, a fight-marred game (there would be three bouts in this game against Nashville), Brashear got things started against Wade Belak. It would be his last moment on the ice for the regular season, as he sprained a knee in this fight. Matt Bradley would face Jordin Tootoo three seconds after this fight, and John Erskine would give Wade Belak another shot at a Capital 4:18 into the second. None of this seemed to have any influence in the outcome, a 2-1 overtime win for the Caps.

Looking at the fights, they look like a window into the past. No fewer than six of the 11 were against fellow enforcers or guys accustomed to dropping the gloves (Jody Shelley, George Parros, Riley Cote (twice), Colton Orr, Eric Boulton). None appear to have really had an impact on the decision. It calls into question just what Brashear’s role is – or might be – on this team. His hockey skills seemed to have diminished considerably. His enforcement role seems to have little demonstrable effect on outcomes. He was worst on the team (minimum: 60 games) in penalties taken per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. The Caps were not, at least looking at their record, a better team with Brashear on the ice. Even with the six-game suspension in the playoffs, he didn’t appear to have merited a sweater, given that the Caps could have used some more defense and some more offense from the lower half of the forward lines.

The Caps are a club that lacks a measure of grit. But grit should not be confused with inconsequential side shows that too many fights in the NHL have become. Brashear’s trading fists with others of his type just don’t appear to have much influence on the game anymore. That certainly seemed to be the case this year, and while he gives every indication of being a fine teammate, and will hit and forecheck, Brashear’s other skills did not translate into very much production, either in his own statistics or the team’s win-loss record.

Grade: C-