A ONE-point night: Stars 4 - Caps 3 (OT/Gimmick)

Well, it wasn’t ALL bad.

The Caps saw their 13-game home winning streak come to an end, not with a bang, but with a whimper. Or more accurately, a puck that crawled over the line in the Gimmick, as the Dallas Stars took away a 4-3 skills competition win over the Capitals last night.

The not all bad part…

-- The Caps launched 52 shots in the hockey portion of the program at Dallas goalie Marty Turco, a season high in shots on goal.

-- Alex Ovechkin got off the schneid with a pair of goals to tie Sidney Crosby for the league lead.

-- David Steckel and Tom Poti collaborated for a nice goal when Steckel fished the puck from along the boards, heard Potio tapping his stick from the middle of the ice, and sent a pass to Poti all alone down the slot for a goal.

-- The Caps got a standings point.

-- No one got hurt.

That about covers the “not bad.” After that, this game turned on two things. First, Turco. If that wasn’t his best game of the season for the Stars, it was in his top three. He wasn’t often spectacular, even as the 49-save total might suggest. But he gave the Caps nothing in the way of second chances. Frankly, he should have sued his skaters in front of him for non-support. For 40 minutes, the Caps had free reign in the Stars’ zone, launching shots from everywhere. What Turco didn’t give the Caps was second chances.

Think of it this way… for all the shots the Caps had, Mike Knuble had a total of… one. There wasn’t any garbage laying around for Knuble to whack at. And even though Brooks Laich had seven shots, you couldn’t say he had a lot of put-back opportunities, either.

The other thing was the penalty killing. Folks talk about the Caps’ goaltending (and we’ll get to that), but the Caps’ skaters on the penalty kill were awful. Too much standing around, too much letting Dallas set up in front to screen Caps’ goalie Semyon Varlamov. Of note, Joe Corvo was on for both Dallas power play goals, which was part of a larger problem that he just doesn’t yet look comfortable in this scheme (there was another occasion, not on a power play, in which he abandoned coverage in the middle of the ice on a Dallas rush that left two Caps defensemen on the same side of the ice, leaving room for a Star to skate free down the opposite side for a scoring chance).

But about that goaltending. First, the Stars took three shots, scored on two of them. True, both of them involved traffic in front, but Varlamov did not look to be establishing himself to be in position to stop those pucks, either. And the third goal for the Stars… that wrist shot by James Neal was more the kind you see in pre-game warm-ups. It didn’t look to have a lot of mustard on it, but Varlamov just wasn’t in its line of flight. Right now, this isn’t the goalie who had two shutouts in four games before he was injured. This isn’t a goalie you want to go into the playoffs with. He’s shown himself to be better than that – he needs to start showing that form.

Look, it’s not as if Dallas played well. They didn’t. Their offense, such as it was, wouldn’t scare anyone. The Caps had more shots blocked (27) than the Stars had on goal (26). Their scores came on poor play by Washington, not on superior effort with the puck. You had to think that against this team, Jose Theodore might have had a second straight shutout.

The Caps – shoot, the whole arena – looked dead. It was just too stereotypical of a game against a rarely-seen opponent on a weeknight. There were a fair number of empty seats, there didn’t seem to be a lot of energy in the building. Even Ovechkin, in scoring the two goals, looked for long stretches as if he was coasting (or tired).

Ovechkin did try to drag the Caps along on his shoulders after a lethargic first 30 minutes. Both goals were from the standard catalogue. The first came on a feed from Alexander Semin from the far edge of the left wing circle. From the top of the right wing circle, Ovechkin let fly with a wrist shot that beat Turco clean over his right pad.

The second came when Nicklas Backstrom stepped around Mike Ribeiro at center ice, then slid the puck over to Ovechkin. Cutting down the left side, he cut to the middle, leaving Stephane Robidas guarding air. Another step later, he wristed the puck past Turco to tie the game at three goals apiece. After that, it was an uneventful overtime, then trick shot time, where Loui Eriksson put the Caps and their winning streak out of their misery with a deke and a shot past Varlamov’s right pad that just had enough to get through.

A few other things...

-- Two power plays for the Stars, only 1:32 of total time in getting the two goals on three shots.  That is beyond bad.

-- Watching the stylings of Alexander Semin is like watching the artist who can paint the masterpiece one moment, then can't keep inside the lines in paint-by-numbers the next.  He had some wonderful opportunities in dangling the puck on a string and snapping wrist shots (16 shot attempts in all).  Then there was the shootout.  We didn't see it, but we understand even Marty was shaking his head at that one.

-- Mike Green sometimes just has the air of the teenager who is smart, but can't be bothered doing his homework -- the kid who will make you tear your hair out with his "whatever" attitude.  It's not that he doesn't care, it's just that sometimes he skates himself into positions he can't get out of, then does something really, really bad with the puck.  There was a lot of that last night.  He was charged with only one giveaway.  The scorer must have been at the concession stand often when Green had the puck.

-- Nicklas Backstrom probably had his best game since the break, but that isn't saying a lot.  He still seems to be getting separated from the puck more often than was the case before going to Vancouver.

-- It was a night in which the Caps couldn't fire on all cylinders (again) in this respect -- they got two goals from Ovechkin, but this was the night the secondary scoring was absent. 12 shots on goal from the third and fourth lines, no goals, two points (Steckel and Bradley assisting on the Poti goal).

The Caps can't even be said to play down to the level of opponent in this one.  They had the look of playing in a whole other game.  They just didn't look engaged; there wasn't any energy there.  All in all… just a blah sort of night…

Rocking the... Snuggie?

When the Cleveland Cavaliers of the NBA took the court against the Detroit Pistons last Friday, they did so as fans of the Cavs had their own fan participation moment in store that would make Caps fans proud that they "rock the red" in more conventional ways.  20,000 or so Cavs fans donned promotional Snuggies that they received in an effort to establish a world record for most people wearing them at one time...

(Photo by David Liam Kyle/NBAE via Getty Images)

Looks like some weird monk convention.  Self-respecting hockey fans would never be caught dead in an article of clothing called a "Snuggie," would they? 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Stars, March 8th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s “hump game” – the middle game in the five game home stand on which the Capitals find themselves. And tonight’s opponent, the Dallas Stars, represent the last club in the Pacific Division that the Caps will see this year, unless they were to see one in the Stanley Cup finals. Dallas, as any Texan will tell you, is the crown jewel of Texas cities when it comes to sports teams – the Stars, the Cowboys, the Mavericks, the Rangers (well, the only real Rangers, anyway), the Brahmas (that’s a hockey team, folks)… Why, you’d think Dallas was the center of the known universe when it came to sports. Or so they might think in Texas.

Well podners, Dallas, Texas, is hardly unique. Why, it’s not even the only “Dallas.” There’s a Dallas in each and every time zone of the continental United States – there’s one in Georgia, one in North Carolina. There’s one in Wisconsin (not to be confused with the “town” of Dallas, Wisconsin), one in Iowa. There’s one in Colorado; there’s one in Oregon. Why, there’s even one in Pennsylvania (but then again, they have an Indiana, a Paris, and a Moscow, too).

There is a Dallas in Scotland (from which the Dallas in Texas gets its name), there is a Dallas in Australia. There is even a Dallas in Canada (actually, it’s a neighborhood in Kamloops, BC).

There is a Dallas Dhu whisky (once distilled near the aforementioned Dallas, Scotland)

There is even an asteroid named “Dallas.”

So if you get right down to it, Dallas just isn’t that special.

Tonight, the Capitals host the Stars to complete their tour of the Pacific Division. To date, the Caps are 3-2-0 against the Pacific, so this is a chance for the Caps to finish with their first winning record against the far westerners since the 2005-2006 season (3-2-0) and the most wins against it, well…ever.

To do so, the Caps will have to beat a team that is struggling lately. After going 6-2-1 going into the Olympic break, the Stars have stumbled coming out of it. Three games, three losses. And ugly losses they have been. In each one the Stars allowed at least five goals, and only against the Penguins in their last game did they manage to score more than one (outscored 17-5 overall). Add to that the fact that only four teams in the league have fewer road wins than do the Stars, and this makes for a difficult test for the visitors. The overall numbers look like this…

The Stars are led in scoring by Brad “Less than Zero” Richards. Yes, he has 69 points, tied for ninth in the league in scoring. True, he has 52 helpers, which ranks him fourth in the league in that department. But he is also a minus-17, which ranks him in a tie for 822nd (as in “eight-hundred-and-twenty-second”). It’s not as if this is entirely foreign territory for Richards, a player who has yet to finish on the plus side of the ledger since the lockout (minus-67 in his last 274 games). While he is 2-8-10 in his last nine games, he is also a minus-4 (minus-6 in his last three). The plus-minus might be an overrated and overabused statistic, but Richards’ has the highest goals against-on ice/60 minutes in the league among forwards (source: behindthenet.ca). He also has the worst differential among forwards in the league (GAON/60-to-GAOFF/60). His reputation for skill on defense seems a bit overrated.

Mike Ribeiro missed 15 games in January and early February after being struck in the throat by the Rangers’ Chris Higgins on January 6th. Since returning on February 9th, he is 5-3-8, plus-3 in six games, with three power play goals. He’s had reasonably good success against Southeast Division teams in his career, with one notable exception. Against Atlanta, Carolina, Florida, and Tampa Bay he has a total of 17 goals in 64 career games (at least three against each of those teams). He has yet to find the back of the net in 15 career games against Washington.

Mike Modano is the grand old man of the Stars in this, his 20th season with the franchise, dating back to its days in Minnesota. His offense has been in decline for several years – his last point-a-game season was in 2002-2003 – but he does provide a veteran presence that could still be valuable to a team that is only six points out of a playoff spot. He is struggling of late, though; he is on a seven game streak without a point. But the Caps have been something of a tonic in his career. Only against Toronto has Modano scored more points among teams in the East than he has against the Caps (12-30-42 in 31 games).

13 defensemen in the NHL have at least ten goals. Tell us you knew that Stephane Robidas was one of them. He leads the blue liners in goals, assists, points, power play goals (as many as Mike Green – seven), shots, and ice time. The goals, assists, and points (10-24-34) all represent career highs for Robidas, who is in his ninth full season. And he’s been more disciplined that he has in recent years in this respect -- coming into this year he accumulated 314 penalty minutes in 304 games. This year, though, he has only 39 PIMs in 64 games. He is 2-2-4 in 15 career games against Washington.

In goal it would seem that Marty Turco would get the call (Kari Lehtonen got the start, and the decision, in a 6-3 loss in Pittsburgh on Saturday). Turco is hanging onto the first page of the NHL stat rankings by his fingernails. His 2.75 GAA is 30th in the league, and his .910 save percentage is tied for 23rd (with Jose Theodore, it turns out). It represents some slippage for Turco from his best years, but those numbers are comparable with his post lockout numbers (2.49, .904). Against the Caps he is 3-0-1, 2.31 for his career.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Dallas: Brenden Morrow

Morrow is pretty much the heart and soul of this team, the sort of player who plays a lot bigger than his 5’11”, 205 size would suggest. And he has the injuries over the years to prove it – groin, wrist, knee, and this year the dreaded “upper body injury” that had him out for four games. He has been limited to 199 of the past 310 games for the Stars, which makes one wonder if that 32 goal season he had in 2007-2008 was an aberration or another notch in his progress. He has had success against the Caps (5-8-13 in nine career games), although he hasn’t scored a goal since January 8th and has only one since December 16th.

Washington: Mike Green

Here is your fun Mike Green fact for this game. Over this season and last, Green is 4-4-8 in eight Monday games. On the other hand, he does not have a goal in two career games against the Stars (ok, it’s a small sample). Green might not be having quite the season he had last year, statistically, but he does still lead the league’s defensemen in goals, assists, and points, is tied for first in power play goals, and is tied for third in game-winners. Since New Years Day, Green has gone consecutive games without a point only once (January 23rd and 26th), and he did not have a point against the Rangers on Saturday. He is 6-19-25 in 21 games in the 2010 portion of the schedule.

Keys:

1. Shoot, shoot again, and shoot some more. Marty Turco is a goalie who put up some excellent numbers in his career. Before the lockout he did not finish a year with a save percentage below .913, and he did not have a goals against average above 2.09. The thing is, he saw an average of only 22.6 shots a game in his career before the lockout. He sees more rubber these days (29.8 shots/game), and he isn’t as efficient or effective as a result.

2. Make it quick work. Dallas has surrendered the sixth most first period goals in the league and the fifth highest total of second period goals. It goes a long way toward explaining why only four teams – Atlanta, Edmonton, the Islanders, and Toronto – have gone into the second intermission trailing on the scoreboard more times. Add to that the fact that Dallas has the league’s 24th ranked road penalty killers, and this sets up well for Washington.

3. Put away the how-I-spent-my-break movies. The four Olympic skaters – Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, Tomas Fleischmann, and Nicklas Backstrom – have no goals among them since coming back from Vancouver. It’s nice to have the Scott Walkers and the Eric Belangers come in and chip in some goals, but these guys represent four of the top six goal scorers on the team. It would be nice to see them get back on track.

In the end, these are not your father’s Dallas Stars. It is not the club of old that could smother opponents with a suffocating system-driven defense. It is a middle-of-the-road club now with some significant problems on defense, mostly their penalty killing (although that 20th ranked 5-on-5 is a problem, too). This is a team that seems in some respects made to order for the Caps, but nothing should ever be taken for granted. Still, if the Caps show up and give an honest effort, Dallas is not in their weight class.

Caps 5 – Stars 2

In the Midst of a Season to Remember

Tonight, the Hershey Bears defeated the Adirondack Phantoms, 4-2, to win their 23rd consecutive game on home ice, a professional hockey record.  The win put the Bears ahead of the Muskegon Mohawks of the International Hockey League, who won 22 in a row in 1965-1966.  It is the latest record in a record-setting season for the Bears, but it probably will not be the last one they set.  There are a few ahead of them that are possible with 17 games left in the regular season...

Wins, season: 57, Binghamton Rangers, 1992-93 (Hershey has 49 with 17 games remaining)

Points, season: 124, Binghamton Rangers, 1992-93 (Hershey has 100 with 34 points yet available)

Fewest Losses (regulation), season: 13, Binghamton Rangers, 1992-93 (Hershey has 12)

Most Home Wins, season: 33, Fredericton Express, 1987-88; and Providence Bruins, 1998-99 (Hershey has 28 with seven home dates left)

Most Road Wins: 28, Providence Bruins, 2007-08 (Hershey has 21 with ten road games remaining)

Highest Points Percentage, season: .775, Binghamton Rangers, 1992-93 (Hershey is currently at .794)

Most Points Earned at Home, season: 68, Fredericton Express, 1987-88; and Providence Bruins, 1998-99 (Hershey currently has 58 with 14 points still available)

Most Points Earned on the Road, season: 59, Chicago Wolves, 2006-07; Providence Bruins, 2007-08 (Hershey has 42 with 20 points still available)

And there is still the big one sitting out there waiting for when the regular season ends... One for the big toe, the 11th Calder Cup in franchise history.

A TWO-point night: Caps 2 - Rangers 0

Spartan: (spär' tn): sternly disciplined and rigorously simple, frugal, or austere.


Tonight, the Capitals were spartan in their approach to dealing with the New York Rangers, and hammered out a 2-0 win to give the home team its 13th consecutive win on home ice, extending their franchise record.

Eric Fehr got his 17th goal of the year for the Caps on a power play, and Eric Belanger got his first for the Caps to give goalie Jose Theodore all the cushion he would need to record his first shutout of the season and 29th of his career.

-- The two goal night ended a 23-game streak in which the Caps scored at least three goals. Over that streak the Caps scored 109 goals, an average of 4.74 goals a game.

-- Think Eric Fehr doesn’t hear footsteps behind him? Never mind the power play goal he scored, look at the play he made about five minutes into the game when starting flatfooted as the puck exited the Capitals’ zone, he outraced Matt Gilroy and Wade Redden to the puck and broke in on goalie Alex Auld. He didn’t get the goal, but that’s the kind of hustle having so many forwards competing at the back end of the lines will inspire.

-- And then there is this. Fehr’s 17th goal of the year scored tonight would have him tied for second on the Rangers. For the Caps, it leaves him seventh on the club. But the amazing thing is that Fehr is doing this – 17 goals in 54 games – while getting only an average of 12 minutes a night.

-- Since getting a hat trick against the Penguins on February 7th, Alex Ovechkin has now gone six games without a goal. It is his longest streak since a nine-game streak in 2008-2009 (October 13-November 8). That’s 31 shots and counting, if you’re keeping score. He’s not shy about trying to break out, though; he had 12 shot attempts tonight.

-- And for the first line as a whole, 21 shot attempts (the Caps as a team had 50) and no goals. They didn’t lack for volume.

-- With their 44th win, the Caps have now tied their sixth highest win total in franchise history (44-24-12-2 in 1999-2000).

-- From the “anything you can do, I can do better” file, the Hershey Bears shutout the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins tonight, 4-0 for their 48th win of the season (putting the current edition of the Bears in a tie for fourth highest win total in franchise history).

-- The Caps had a rough night in the own end in this respect – they won only two of 12 draws not taken by David Steckel, and Jason Chimera (a winger) won one of those.

-- Sometimes, there is a story within the story. Here is the fourth line’s night (David Steckel, Matt Bradley, Scott Walker) – no points (in fact, only one shot attempt), but four hits, two takeaways, and no turnovers. Little things matter in low-scoring games.

-- John Carlson… a shot, two hits, a takeaway, and two blocked shots in 14 minutes. Solid game. It’s going to be tough to send him back to Hershey.

-- On the other side, Wade Redden… former All-Star, gobbling up $6.5 million in cap space… 11:50 in ice time. And there was everyone’s favorite pest, Sean Avery, getting even less (11:15).  Aren't these guys players that the Rangers are supposed to be depending on other than as filler and obnoxiousness?

-- In the 2010 portion of the season, Jose Theodore is 13-1-2, 2.46, .926, with one shutout. Before we get too enthralled, in last year’s first 16 decisions of 2009, Theodore was 10-4-2, 2.40, .915.

-- Brooks Laich… no shot attempts, lost all five draws, but he did have a nice assist on Eric Belanger’s goal. Superman finds a way, even when his cape is wrinkled.

-- With ten home games remaining, the Caps are now within five of the franchise record for home wins (30, set in 1985-1986).

The Rangers just weren’t going to engage the Caps in an up-and-down track meet tonight, and Alex Auld had a good night in net for New York. That meant a grind-it-out sort of effort was necessary, and the Caps supplied exactly that. It was the second consecutive game they scored three or fewer goals in a game and won, a good sign as the regular season winds down. And with the shutout, the Caps have allowed eight goals in their last four games – another good sign.

Next up will be Dallas, victims of having given up 11 goals in the two games they played since the Olympic break. If might be an opportunity for some Caps to get back on track offensively, but if they keep putting out defensive efforts like this, they will be able to weather the slumps that come to every shooter sooner of later.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Rangers, March 6th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Welcome, hockey fans, to another edition of the last prognosto you will ever need (as long as you don’t use it for actual cash wagering). Tonight, the Caps play host to the New York Friggin’ Rangers (that’s a tip o’ the hat to our Big Apple readers). The Caps are coming off a stirring 5-4 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning, if by “stirring” you mean “they should have whacked dem guys” (another tip o’ the hat). The Rangers, meanwhile, visit Washington – the most powerful city on the face o’ de oit (take THAT Ranger fans)…

"You know, temper’s the one thing you can’t get rid of by losing it.”

Oh, pardon me, and you are…

“Rydell, Dr. Buddy Rydell, anger management therapist."

Really, and you think we have anger issues?

“I see the signs…”

OK, we’ll play along… just what could I expect in your anger… uh, “therapy?”

“Well, we need to go over some ground rules. You are to refrain from any any acts of violence including verbal assault and vulgar hand gestures. You may not use rage enhancing substances, such as caffeine, nicotine, alcohol, crack cocaine, slippy-flippy's, jelly stingers, trick sticks, bing bangs, flying willards or images of Sidney Crosby carrying the Stanley Cup.”

How 'bout fiddle-faddels?

“Under my supervision. That having been said, I'm a pretty good guy and I think you'll be pleasantly surprised how much fun we can have together.”

Geez, without slippy-flippy's or bing bangs I don't see how that's possible.

“Sarcasm is anger's ugly cousin... from now on, unacceptable.”

What about hockey games?

“They’re ok… just between you’n me, I like a good ol’ hockey game from time to time, too. I’ve even counseled some folks in hockey?”

Oh? Anyone we’d know?

“Ever hear of John Tortorella?”

OK, well, we’ll check the Yellow Pages if we need that sort of therapy, but in the meantime we have a hockey game tonight. The Rangers are coming into town after dropping a 5-4 overtime decision to the Pittsburgh Penguins in which they had a 4-2 lead in the second period, but frittered it (can we do “frittered,” Doc?) away in the third period when they were outshot 19-1 by the Penguins.

We suspect the Rangers might have their own anger issues after that one.

The big question for the Blueshirts in this one is whether Marian Gaborik and his wonky groin will be up to the challenge of skating on Verizon Center ice. Gaborik is the only truly dependable offensive threat the Rangers have, as his 35-34-69 points line at least doubles the total of any other goal getter (Ryan Callahan: 17) and is 21 points ahead of the next Ranger in line (Vaclav Prospal: 48). The struggles on offense for the Rangers are reflected in the overall numbers...

Gaborik has not played since before the Olympic break, and when he went down he was on a nice run – he was 6-2-8 in five games before lasting only 4:02 in his last appearance, that against the Pens on February 12th. His appearance tonight could be very important to the Rangers. While he was held without a goal in his seven career games against the Caps coming into the season, he is 4-2-6 in three games this year against Washington.

Speaking of Ryan Callahan, he might be the Rangers’ second leading goal scorer, but what distinguishes him is that he plays much bigger than it says in the program. Despite being 5’11”, 188 (according to NHL.com), Callahan ranks second in the league in hits (246). By way of comparison, the Caps’ leading hitter – Alex Ovechkin – has 149. He also has some pop on the power play, currently second on the club in power play goals (eight). Callahan had a three-game pointless streak going into the Olympic break, but came out of it with a two-goal effort against Ottawa in the first game back. He is 5-2-7 in ten career games against the Caps, including a pair of goals and an assist in three contests this season.

The Rangers don’t have a lot of offense, so they have to find an advantage by other means. Callahan supplies the hitting, but there is also Brandon Dubinsky, who can be a pain to play against when he is on his game, and of course, Sean Avery, who leads the league in obnoxious.

Dubinsky has three goals in four games straddling the Olympic break, with a goal in each of his first two games out of the break. He has a knack for the clutch goal, leading the team so far this season with five game-winning goals. He has a goal in two games against the Caps this year, his only one in nine career contests.

Avery’s singular talent is getting under the skin of opponents, and it seems to be a motivational tool for him. Four times this season he has accumulated more than ten minutes in penalties in a game. Three times he had points in those contests, twice he’s scored goals. In 32 games in which he has not recorded a penalty minute, he is 3-11-14 (he has 14 points in 27 games in which he has taken a seat in the penalty box). He has only an assist in two games against the Caps this year, and yes, he did have his only two minutes in penalties against the Caps this year in the game he recorded it.

The Rangers’ defense gets a lot of attention. Early on, it was the start by Michael Del Zotto, then it was the continuing development of Marc Staal. There were the struggles of Wade Redden and Michal Roszival. But through it all, the one guy who seems to get little attention is Dan Girardi. The 25-year old in his fourth season has been consistent, if not spectacular. He is fourth among Ranger defensemen in total scoring (5-10-15), tied for second in goals (five), second in penalty minutes, and is second in average ice time. He also has the only shorthanded goal for the Ranger blueliners this year. And, in a perfect alignment of “hit-and-grit” he has 140 hits on the year (13th in the league among defensemen) and 140 blocked shots (tied for sixth).

The trouble for the Rangers, though, is they have so little offense after Marian Gaborik. As if it wasn’t the case if Gaborik had no health concerns, if his groin should become a continuing issue, the season comes down to how goalie Henrik Lundqvist plays. Lundqvist, the Rangers, and Ranger fans have seen this movie before. So far, Lundqvist has taken care of his end of the bargain. Tied for 11th in GAA (with Colorado’s Craig Anderson), tenth in save percentage, and seventh in total minutes played, he has been the foundation for the Rangers once more. Even if his numbers this year don’t rise to those of Vezina finalist consideration, he has been consistent. He has one streak this year of ten appearances in allowing two or fewer goals. He had another streak of doing so in nine of ten games, and he had one of six in seven games before giving up five to the Penguins on Thursday. He has struggled against the Caps this year, though. In three appearances he is 1-2-0, 4.05, .859.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Chris Drury

Drury had a solid Olympic Games in Vancouver (a pair of goals, plus-3 in six games). The Rangers would hope that his performance for the silver medalist Team USA would serve as a springboard for a productive sprint to the finish. They might be encouraged by the fact that his is 2-1-3 in four games straddling the break, so he might be thought of as in the middle of a pretty good run. Coming into this year, Drury was 6-17-23 in 26 career games against the Caps, but he is scoreless in two games so far this season against Washington.

Washington: Matt Bradley

Bradley was the odd man out (well, one of them) when the Caps took the ice Thursday against the Lightning. On being scratched, he said, "All I can say is I wish the team well tonight and I hope they win. That's all I have to say. Walker and Belanger are good players and I wish them luck in their first game and, like I said, I want a win for our team." It’s possible to read too much into a quote, but one doesn’t get the feeling that Bradley was happy. Nor should he be; that’s what being a competitor is about. And inf nothing else, Bradley is a competitor. He hasn’t had a lot of regular season success against the Rangers (2-3-5 in 26 career games), but in the last six games he had played against the Rangers (last year’s playoff and this season), he is 3-2-5, plus-6.

Keys:

1. Special Teams. The three games this year between these teams have been a feast for the power play, a famine for the penalty killers… for both sides. The Caps are 6-for-22 on the power play, the Rangers are 6-for-15. For the Caps, the task is clear and simple… do better killing penalties. No small feat, given that the Caps have allowed at least one power play goal in eight of their last ten games and have a PK success rate over that span of, get this… 69.8 percent. The Rangers have the 28th-ranked road power play in the NHL. If the Rangers get anything out of their power play tonight, the Caps have problems.

2. Be the tortoise. In the three games so far this year, the team that scored first lost. That is not a prescription to allow the Rangers to get the first marker, only a warning that it is a 60 minute game.

3. Shake, Rattle, and Roll. The Rangers are third in the league in road hits. They will bring it with the likes of Callahan, Girardi, Avery, and Dubinsky. The Caps have to make them pay, especially in the face of an aggressive forecheck, with crisp passing in their own end to get the Rangers shorthanded going the other way. Watch the giveaway/takeaway column on the NHL.com event summary.

In the end, it is yet another game of the playoff given against the playoff wannabe. The Caps have won both games coming out of the Olympic break, but having allowed four goals to Tampa Bay on Thursday, that makes six times in eight games they have allowed at least four. 11 of the 26 goals the Caps have allowed in the past eight games have come on the opponent’s power play. Well, the Caps get their chance tonight to turn that around against a team that has a lot of trouble scoring on the power play on the road (11.8 percent), or even getting chances (102 – 27th in the league). The Rangers’ 12 total road power play goals this year is more than only Ottawa and Boston. The Caps can do this, right?... right?

Yes, they can…

Caps 4 – Rangers 2

One Number

With all the hoopla surrounding the trades of the week just ending and the Caps seeming to have righted themselves in the race to the top of the league standings, we pause for a sobering thought.

For all the statistics that are becoming available to rate team and individual performance, there is one number out there that -- if it doesn't get corrected -- could spell doom for the Caps in a playoff scenario.  That number is:

13.6

That is the difference, in percentage points, between the Caps home penalty killing (86.3 percent) and their road PK (72.7) percent.  The Caps are fourth in the league in home penalty killing, but stand 29th (ahead of only Toronto) in killing penalties on the road.  The 13.6 point disparity is the widest margin of that measure in the NHL.

Chances are at some point in the playoffs, the Caps are going to have to win a game on the road.  That chore is made of much harder when you can't kill off penalties with a team buzzing about you and their fans roaring in your face.  If there is one facet of the game the Caps need to shore up, this likely is it.

A TWO-point night: Caps 5 - Lightning 4

The Washington Capitals played the role of welcoming host tonight at Verizon Center, doing their level best to present the Tampa Bay Lightning with a win wrapped in a bow. But in the end, the cranky uncle from North Carolina said, “enough of this crap,” scored two goals, and the Caps had a 5-4 win over the Lightning.

Scott Walker, late of the Carolina Hurricanes, potted his first and second goals as a Cap, including the game-winner with 6:51 left. It wasn’t what he was brought on to do, but there weren’t many Caps tonight who were doing what they were brought here to do.

Part of that was some determined play by the Lightning, some of it was blind luck, and too much of it was a somewhat indifferent attitude in their own zone…

-- The Alexes had ten of their combined 18 shot attempts blocked, which in no small way accounts for their having a total of one point between them (Ovechkin had an assist).

-- Mike Lundin took most of those for the team, blocking seven shots by himself for the Lightning. But the one that folks might remember took place when Ovechkin got all of a one-timer and rocketed it off Andrej Meszaros. Meszaros was knocked off his pins with the shot and had a lot of difficulty getting back to the Lightning bench. Being the second period, it was the long change, so he had quite a painful skate. He did finish second on the Lightning with four blocks of his own.

-- Tampa Bay had five power plays, and the key for the Caps seemed to weather the first 25 seconds. Twice, they didn’t. The Lightning scored their two power play goals in a combined 35 seconds of power play time – that taking the faceoff in the offender’s end workin’ for ya? Vincent Lecavalier beat Eric Belanger on a draw followed by a Steve Downie goal ten seconds into one power play. Later, the same pair had the same faceoff result but the puck coming back to Lecavalier for a goal 25 seconds into the man advantage.

-- Then there was the March of the Penguins… uh, Capitals. At 13:08 of the second period Mike Green was sent off for an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty as a result of a coincidental hooking infraction to Victor Hedman. Seems the referee (Steve Kozari on your program – number 40, ask for him by name) thought Mike left his feet just a leeeeeeettle too easily. Folks in the video control room didn’t seem to agree – they replayed the moment several times. It looked like the Zapruder film after a while… “and there goes Green… down, and to the left… down… and to the left… down… and to the left.”

-- Green’s perp walk was followed six seconds later when Brooks Laich was whistled for high-sticking Mike Lundin (who probably should have gotten a star tonight, but didn’t). Then, Tom Poti got the gate 50 seconds after that for high-sticking (2-for-40 cents at Wal-Mart, tonight only). This was probably the turning point, if you could call it that. Instead of the Lightning taking advantage of the overlapping penalties to the Caps, they came up empty to close the second period, trailing at the second intermission 3-2.

-- You could tell the Caps still have some rust. There were several times tonight when plays opened up a seam in close, but the Caps couldn’t seal the deal, the puck either passed to close to Ovechkin’s feet for a one-timer, or just past the stick of Mike Knuble, or up over a stick and back out of the zone.

-- Scott Walker moment – his two goals came in a sparse 7:33 of ice time. He had five shot attempts (that’s Ovechkian in its pace) and three hits. Packs a lot of fun in his seven minutes, this guy.

-- Marty St. Louis looked for all the world as if he’s just as happy sitting on the outside being the set up guy for Steven Stamkos (who has become quite a load). Three assists for the diminutive one.

-- Need evidence of the development of young Mr. Stamkos? A goal, six shots, 12 shot attempts, three hits, split 14 draws, and almost 24 minutes of ice time. He was still a minus-1, though.

-- The Caps looked rather discombobulated for stretches tonight. While we do attribute that to some lingering rust (and a recurring penchant for attempting the cutey-pie pass when pounding the shot on net will do), the Caps were incorporating three new guys in the lineup. Chemistry isn’t usually of the “instant” variety.

-- Speaking new guys… Belanger, Walker, and Joe Corvo went a combined 2-0-2, plus-3.

-- Speaking of new guys II… of the five goals tonight, four were scored by players not with the club last year (Walker, Knuble).

-- Knuble had a couple of nice ones. The first came off a wrist shot, converting a rush with Brooks Laich on his left. One doesn’t usually see Knuble scoring from open ice like that. The other one came off a scramble in front and Knuble giving goalie Mike Smith a whole lot of backside as a screen. A shot from Nicklas Backstrom was blocked by Mark Parrish before it got to Smith, but with the puck lying between the hash marks, Knuble did a half turn backwards and flipped the puck past Smith’s left pad. Kanoobie was doing flips when the goal was replayed.

-- Give credit to Laich on the first Knuble goal for jumping past Matt Smaby at the Caps’ blue line when Smaby fumbled the puck. Laich got to it first, fended off Smaby, then outraced him down the left side to set up Knuble trailing on the right side.

-- Semyon Varlamov might escape full blame for any of the goals he allowed, but one couldn’t really say he was sharp. If he was, we suspect he’d want the second Lecavalier goal back. He bit on a fake slap shot as Lecavalier was steaming in on a semi-break away. Lecavalier pulled the puck just a touch to the outside, but it was enough as Varlamov had already gone into defense of the shot he thought was coming. Lecavalier ripped the puck past Varlamov’s blocker for the score.

-- On Lecavalier’s first goal, don’t blame the new guys. He circled past Nicklas Backstrom, who lost Lecavalier behind him, and Tom Poti did not close quickly enough to prevent Lecavalier from accepting a pass wide open between the hash marks. Varlamov had no chance on that one. Neither did he have much of a chance on Stamkos’ goal, which seemed more the product of bad communication among Joe Corvo, Brendan Morrison, and Tom Poti. Stamkos found himself just inside the left wing hash marks with just enough time to snap the puck through Varlamov. It extended Stamkos’ points streak to 15 games.  And the other goal was just one of those deflections of the puck from a few feet out that leaves no time for a goaltender to react.

-- If Backstrom was important in the Lecavalier power play goal, then he was absolutely golden on another Lightning power play. With Tampa Bay holding the advantage on a 4-on-3, Backstrom broke his stick but still managed to place himself in harm’s way. Three times in a space of 20 seconds he took the brunt of shots by Kurtis Foster, who has a cannon of a shot. It earned Backstrom a standing ovation from the crowd when he returned to the bench.

-- Boyd Gordon and Nicklas Backstrom picked up the slack with the absence of Dave Steckel in the circle. They combined to go 22-up and 8-down in faceoffs. Gordon was 6-for-7 in the defensive zone.

-- And that goal by Eric Fehr spent about a nanosecond in the net before ricocheting out. He really leaned into one that sailed off Smith’s shoulder and into the far top corner.

It was a remarkably evenly played game, by the numbers. But the difference was in the Lightning’s inability to match the Caps at even strength (note to readers: our prognosto was for the Caps to beat the Lightning 5-2 at even strength, not 5-2 for the game… right?). It wasn’t pretty by any stretch, but playing ugly and still getting five goals has to be deemed an accomplishment. We’re just not sure what it was that was accomplished…

Oh yeah, another win to go up 14 points in the Eastern Conference.

Distant Early Deals

Deadline Day is the last day of shopping before teams have to move on with what they have. It isn’t the first day. Some deals – the biggest ones, in fact – were consummated before the Olympics. Marquee players such as Ilya Kovalchuk and Dion Phaneuf were moved weeks before Deadline Day.

But that isn’t really the start of it, either. And that has some special relevance to the Caps. The Caps were busy on Deadline Day, although you can’t say any single deal was for a big difference maker. The deals were incremental – some more grit, some better defense for the forwards, some relief for Mike Green, some depth. But before that, the Caps made two deals of considerable consequence for this year – the signings of Mike Knuble and Brendan Morrison. In light of those signings, you cannot say that the Caps have stood pat with respect to their roster.

Let’s compare the lineup that the Caps had in their last win of last season – the 5-4 overtime win over Pittsburgh in Game 6 of the Eastern semifinals – and a lineup that they could ice with their new acquisitions. First, the forwards…

The Caps clearly upgraded the first line, swapping out Viktor Kozlov for Mike Knuble. Knuble provides the net presence on offense that Kozlov was unable to provide and is probably a better defensive player to boot. Knuble already has 23 goals (ten more than Kozlov had in ten more games played last year) and has already passed Kozlov’s point total from last year (42 to 41). His style, characterized by playing more with his backside in the goalie’s face, has given Backstrom and Ovechkin more room to maneuver, and their improved offensive numbers reflect that. More importantly, his presence has given Backstrom more room to control the puck and allowed Ovechkin to avoid making the sort of high-risk plays, allowing those two to be highly ranked in the plus/minus scale. The first line is better defensively for Knuble’s presence by letting the others keep the puck out of the other team’s hands.  Next, the second line...

The second line still has issues with respect to the center. Sergei Fedorov was largely a shell of his former self last year, his series-winning goal against the Rangers in the first playoff round being more or less his last roar. Brendan Morrison was signed to fill that position when Fedorov returned to Russia. And while Morrison got off to a fine start, his play slumped as the games went by. The break might do wonders to rejuvenate him, and having him strong to complement the skill of Alexander Semin and the grit of Brooks Laich will be important entering the playoff part of the season.  Then, the third line...

The third line becomes more of a scoring line than perhaps was the case last year, but the addition of Eric Belanger makes it defensively responsible, too. Eric Fehr is a diligent forechecker and is an efficient (given his ice time) goal scorer. Fleischmann is a very capable offensive player, but has his struggles at the other end of the ice. Belanger provides enough of a two-way presence to help both of those players, should this be the way they line up. The Caps do not lose much, if anything, with Belanger on this line on draws, and he could be Steckel’s equal on defense. Fehr provides more offense than Clark, although Clark’s intangibles are hard to replace.  And last, the fourth line...

The fourth line marries the defensive responsibility of Steckel to the energy that Walker and Bradley provide (or, if need be, the added defensive skill of Boyd Gordon). This is not a line that will score much, but it could be better at making the lives of opposing players more difficult.  (edit: our apologies to Jason Chimera, who we left out of the original draft of this, who was brought in after the first deals and before the last.  He adds even more "bang and boom" -- physical play and some contributions on the offensive end -- that will make the Caps even harder to play against).  From here, to the defense...

On defense, the result of all the deals seems to be to move players to more comfortable levels of responsibility and effort. Mike Green and Jeff Schultz seem to be a good pairing in that Schultz has grown defensively and serves an adequate complement to Green. He can play the minutes, and he is as quietly effective a defender as there is in the league (the operative term there being “quietly”).

Joe Corvo and Shaone Morrisonn would be an echo of the first pair, only with fewer minutes at even strength. Morrisonn was the stay-at-home guy for Mike Green, and he could be that guy for Corvo, who at times resembles Green in style. Tom Poti could play anywhere from the first to the third pair and play in either an offensive or defensive mode. He is now the most versatile of the Caps’ defensemen, which is not necessarily something you might have said about him four or five seasons ago.  And finally, goaltending...

In goal, the Caps still have the uncertainty attached to Jose Theodore’s consistency and Semyon Varlamov’s health. Had the Caps made a deal here yesterday, we think it would have been with those problems in mind, not the talent of the respective goalies. When either of them are “on,” they can be spectacular. The question has been, and will be going forward, can the Caps reliably count on their being “on” (or even around) when it matters in the next few months.

Overall, the Caps have replaced players at five positions (six, including Chimera) from the group that took the ice in last year’s last win. That is a rather substantial overhaul among 18 skaters. In doing so, it has moved and will move other players to other spots with respect to responsibilities. We think is hard to make a case that the Caps are only treading water with the moves, let alone worse off. They are arguably better on the first line, more reliably consistent on the second (Morrison being healthier this year than Fedorov last). They are different on the third line and more versatile as a result. The fourth line will cause more of a commotion than what folks might have associated with the Caps.

The defense balances risk and reward a little more evenly, and the goalies are a year older (and, we hope, a year wiser).

It’s not just about Deadline Day. It’s also about the distant early deals that have threaded their way into the roster. If done well, you might think the players in those deals have been here forever. And with Mike Knuble and Brendan Morrison coming in the first of this year’s deals, that seems to be the case. The Caps, for all the deals they’ve made, are a better team right now and more “playoff ready” than they were when the season ended last year.

The Day After Christmas

Well, the smoke has cleared, the dust has settled, and another “Trading Day” is over. For the Caps, it was one of those days that might make a few fans do a facepalm.  We didn't get all the presents we might have wanted, but from this chair, it was a day of subtle reengineering that could be more important to getting a Stanley Cup that getting the flashy name. Why? It’s a matter of need…

Top-Six. It would have been a reach to think that the Caps would have made a play for any player who might fill the bill of “top-six forward.” The club is more or less set there with Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Knuble, Alexander Semin, Brendan Morrison, and Brooks Laich. Compare that to teams like Pittsburgh, who needed a scoring winger (Alexei Ponikarovsky) and New Jersey, who needed more punch at forward (Ilya Kovalchuk). The Caps didn’t have needs there. So, with that part of the team in good shape…

The Next Six. There are a few things that might have been accurate about the next six forwards that could have hampered their chances for success in a playoff scenario. First, they don’t get enough offense (or at least enough consistently) out of that group. David Steckel, Matt Bradley, and Boyd Gordon have a combined 16 goals this year in 153 man-games. Quintin Laing adds another two in 28 games. Eric Belanger brings 13 in 60 games from Minnesota. The Caps do not need much by way of offense in general, but what Belanger provides there is more of a threat from the undercard.

Second, there is the lingering idea that this group isn’t sturdy enough and is a little too “earnest” in their play. While Matt Bradley is certainly a guy who will stand up for his teammates, and Jason Chimera will have his moments, the threat of orneriness isn’t generally an attribute attached to this group. Scott Walker will provide that. As a group, the Caps are now better positioned to give compete more with New Jersey in a grinding game and to make like more difficult for skill forwards of the sort Ottawa and Pittsburgh employ.

Third, there is penalty killing, the soft underbelly of the Caps, especially on the road where they are 29th in the league. Washington is not a very good penalty killing team, although it hasn’t been for a lack of trying in terms of putting out a couple of forwards who can do the job. Ten Caps average at least 30 seconds of power play time a game; seven average more than a minute. Belanger will assume responsibilities here and should be an improvement (his being a good faceoff man doesn’t hurt, either, for defensive zone draws). To the extent he assumes a larger responsibility for this, guys like Nicklas Backstrom (1:03 in average SH ice time) and Tomas Fleischman (1:19 in average SH ice time) won’t. Those two will be fresher for the things they are better at. And, with a couple of veterans added, there shouldn’t be as much the intimidation factor on the road that might play a role in the woeful PK numbers the Caps have as visitors.

Defense. If the Caps could have sprung Dan Hamhuis out of Nashville, who we look at as sort of a “Rob Scuderi” sort of player in terms of being effective at the same time as being relatively unknown, we’d have done hand springs. As it is, the Caps traded one “puck mover” (Brian Pothier) for another (Joe Corvo). And, they sent prospect forward Oskar Osala to Carolina in the deal. In the short term, the evaluation can only be whether the Caps could be more successful with Pothier or with Corvo. Pothier is safer; Corvo is more “high-risk.” Pothier isn’t an especially physical defenseman, but then again, neither is Corvo (or at least, neither really fills the perceived need here). Pothier, who was signed to be something of a two-way defenseman on the heels of a 35-point season in Ottawa in 2006, never really filled that role with the Caps. Corvo, who has a 40-point season on his resume (with Los Angeles in 2006), had a 38-point season with Carolina last year but fell off to 12 points in 34 games, fighting injury along the way.

It seems to us that Corvo is here for one reason, and that is to provide Mike Green with some relief. Green is a minutes-eater (12th in the league total, but that is along with being 96th in SH ice time). Corvo should get some power play time to leave Green fresher to deal with the sort of abuse he endured last year in the playoffs and that no doubt he will face once more in the spring.

The addition of Milan Jurcina, who won’t be available for at least a month, is more a depth move. The 6/7 spot could have been John Erskine/Tyler Sloan. Now it is Erskine/Jurcina (or will be). Folks might clamor for either Karl Alzner or John Carlson to get their shot, and they might yet get that opportunity. Someday, Alzner and Carlson will be a cornerstone pair for the Caps. But at their respective points of their careers, Alzner and Carlson are not obviously better than Erskine and Jurcina in that 6/7 role for this team. That said, that sixth defenseman spot is going to remain a lingering problem.

Goaltending. Did the Caps make a play for Boston’s Tim Thomas? Was there interest expressed to Florida about Tomas Vokoun? We don’t know. Vokoun would have been an upgrade in talent, Thomas we’re not as sure about given his performance this season. Having not made a move at this position, the trouble for the Caps here is uncertainty. Jose Theodore is on a 13-game streak in which he hasn’t been beaten in regulation. But we’ve seen this sort of performance before, leaving the question of whether his performance is improving or if it is another high in a pattern of inconsistent performance. In early December, Semyon Varlamov was showing all the signs that he was going to take the number one job. Then he got hurt and has played in only one NHL game since (17 for the year). Michal Neuvirth has been generally good, but has had some problems with inconsistency on his way to a 9-4-0 mark. It would not be precisely correct to say that the Caps will offer up a “goaltender by committee” arrangement, but Theodore and Varlamov will be taking these last 20 (now 19) games to audition for opening night on Broadway, as it were – Game 1 of the opening round of the playoffs. A trade would have provided clarity as to who that goaltender would be, but now, for the moment, it isn’t clear who that is.

In the end, the Caps didn’t need to beef up their skill positions in the same way that New Jersey did or that Pittsburgh did. And, they resisted the temptation of making the splash to do so. The Caps targeted the weaker elements of their roster and performance…

Next Six forwards – improved for defense and penalty killing, should provide a little more offense in the process. Getting Belanger and Walker were plusses (probably more the former than the latter).

Defense – Allows the team to spread the responsibility around a bit more, especially on the power play. Corvo is high-risk/high-reward, but the clear benefit should be in leaving Mike Green fresher. Although, we’re more or less left crossing our fingers that Corvo leaves his big ol' bucket-o'-risk in the locker room. Having Jurcina is as better option than Tyler Sloan, but it isn’t the sort of thing that will make folks squeal in delight.

Goaltending – OK, boys… Jose, Semyon, Michal? Fight it out.

Overall, the Caps are in a better position to compete over the entire roster with the Devils, Penguins, and (if it comes to that) the Sharks or Blackhawks, and that was the object of the exercise, not to add the flashiest name.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lightning, March 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

We’re here with some comments on last night’s game and a preview of tonight’s contest, when the Caps…

“Getting’ lazy, huh, cuz?”

Well, well… seems the cousins are back from Vancouver. How’d you like the Olympics, guys?

“Spectacular! A feast for the fan of competition.”

“Yeah, and the women were good lookin’, too.”

“Quite a change for you… they all had all their teeth.”

“Yeah, even the lady hockey players.”

Guys, what competition did you like most? Fearless?

“Curling… sort of like chess on ice, except you only have 40-pound rocks, instead of rooks and knights and such.”

Cheerless, how about you?

“Biathlon.”

Huh?

“Oh, yeah… gimme any sport where you get to strap a couple o’ planks on yer feet, and you get to shoot guns… I’m there.”

So you were really excited about that one, eh?

“You bet. But I have an idea to make it even better.”

“Oh, this oughtta be good.”

“Sure, my idea is for a “TRI-athlon.”

A “triathlon?”

“Sure… you ski to a spot, chug a beer, take a shot… ski to a spot, chug a beer, take a shot.”

“Sounds like New Years at your place, cuz.”

“You’re just still mad ‘cuz you shot yerself in the foot last time.”

Guys? The game?

The Caps beat the Sabres last night, 3-1, in Buffalo in what could be an important game going forward. First, they beat Ryan Miller, no small feat. True, Miller is coming down off the high – and the disappointment – of leading the United States to a silver medal in hockey, losing in overtime to Team Canada for the gold, but Miller has been consistently superb and often brilliant all year. Last night he was in good form, just not quite good enough.

And a lot of not being quite good enough was a product of who was playing at the other end of the ice. Jose Theodore turned aside 23 of 24 shots to win and put his record at 11-0-2 in his last 13 appearances.

Then there is this. The Caps are the top scoring team in the league, but the flip side of that coin is that they have not been successful in low scoring contests this year. Going into last night’s game they were 8-11-5 in games where they scored three or fewer goals. Gutting out a 3-1 win is what folks in Caps Nation are going to want to see as the calendar moves toward the playoff phase of the season.

In a related vein, it was encouraging to see the Caps put the clamps on the Sabres in terms of both shots and goals allowed. The Caps had not held an opponent to a single goal since defeating Boston, 4-1, on February 2nd. But perhaps just as important, the 24 shots allowed was the lowest number since they allowed 19 to the Kings in Los Angeles on January 2nd. Having the time off to rest and to reacquaint themselves with their systems in practice bore fruit last night.

But the chore now is to put two of these together, and the Caps get their chance to do that tonight against the Lightning, when the boys return to Verizon Center ice. Tampa Bay comes into this game in a bit of disarray. After starting the month of February on a promising note – four straight wins, only five goals allowed – they lost their last three going into the Olympic break by a combined score of 15-10. Then, on Tuesday, they were pasted by the Flyers in their first game back after the break, 7-2.

Both of the goalies seem to be on a rough stretch. Antero Niittimaki, who took the loss on Tuesday, is 0-2-0 in his last three appearances, 6.92, .824. Mike Smith, who would appear to be the victim…uh, goalie for tonight’s game, has fared better statistically (barely), with a 3.42 GAA in his last five appearances and a .847 save percentage. He is 0-3-0 in those five appearances. Neither have played especially well against the Caps this year. Niittymaki has the only win for the Lightning this year, but gave up two goals in 33 minutes of work in getting it. It is his only appearance against the Caps this year. Smith is 0-2-0, 3.29, .896 in three appearances so far this year.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Tampa Bay: Steven Stamkos

Stamkos is the one Lightning player who has been on fire, even in the midst of the four game losing streak. In those four games he is 4-5-9. He is also 3-2-5 in three games againt the Caps so far this year. That’s a lethal mix.

Washington: David Steckel

Yes, Caps fans know the drill. Steckel is a Tampa Bay terror – 6-5-11 in 13 games coming into this year. But he doesn’t have a point against the Lightning in three games this year. The key for Steckel is that he is 0-2-2 in his last 14 games since scoring his last goal, which came against Detroit on January 19th. It would be nice to get a little more pop out of him.

Keys:

1. Getting to know you, getting to know all about you. Tonight the Caps are likely to greet their new troops – Eric Belanger, Scott Walker, and Joe Corvo (Milan Jurcina is out for at least a month with a sports hernia). Integrating that many players into the lineup without the benefit of at least a full practice could be a chore. Hope these guys can learn on the fly. But hey, it’s hockey, right?... right?

2. PK be OK. The last two times time these teams met the Lighting were a combined 5-for-9 on the power play. It can’t be said that the Caps penalty killers had an epiphany as a result, either. Since the Lightning went 4-for-7 in a 7-4 win on January 12th, the Caps have skated off 64 of 80 shorthanded situations – 80.0 percent. That needs to improve.

3. Second 20. Washington has the second highest total of goals scored in the second period of any team this season. Tampa has allowed the fourth most goals in that frame. Look for the Caps to pull away by the 40-minute mark.

In the end, it’s a story of two different teams – one tuning themselves for the playoffs, the other fighting for their playoff lives (Tampa is two points out of eighth place). That’s a product of one team being that much better at both ends of the ice. Tonight, it will be a case of showing who belongs where in the Eastern Conference pecking order…

Caps 5 – Lightning 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is BACK ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Sabres, March 3rd

Tonight the Caps line up to begin its own version of a short track speed skating sprint to the finish – 20 games left, an 11-point lead on the rest of the conference. But before that, all eyes of hockey fans will be glued to their iPhone, iPad, iWishThey’dStopWithThe-iStuff screens in anticipation of the last hours of the trading window for this season. Who will our favorite teams pick up? Which rentals are out there for a bargain price? Speaking of rentals and short-timers, we here in DC are familiar with the breed, and we asked three such players of recent vintage to share with us their wisdom on the care and feeding of the player who might not be here very long…

Drew Gooden, you were traded to the Wizards on February 13th, and then you were sent along to the Los Angeles Clippers four days later. And it’s not as if you’re a stranger to such things – the Clippers are your ninth team in eight years. What advice might you have for any player the Caps might pick up for the last three months of the season?

“Three words – ‘short-term-lease.’”

Ah, I see.

“Oh, and you really don’t want to get a Costco membership, unless you want to be hauling the 36-pack of toilet paper from city to city.”

Paul Lo Duca, you spent seven months here in DC after you were signed as a free agent. So, you’re not technically a rental, but you sure have experience in not spending much time here. Any advice for the players the Caps might pick up today?

“No, but tell me, is Bowden still there?”

No, he was relieved of his duties with the Nats last year.

“Damn… I was kinda hoping he’d sign me again.”

Curtis Leschyshyn… you came to the Caps from Colorado on November 9, 1996. Then you were shipped out to Hartford a week later. You played in two games for the Caps. Two games. Two penalty minutes. Two goals were scored while you were on the ice, on for and one against. Any advice?

“I was in Washington?”

Tonight, as we wait on the last day of the trading deadline to see if the Caps are in the rental market, the Caps return home to host the Buffalo Sabres. As the teams take NHL ice once more, here is how their numbers (prior to last night's action) shake out..

It is likely to be the first game back in a Sabres jersey for the MVP of the Olympic men’s ice hockey tournament, Ryan Miller. In the Olympic tournament Miller finished tied for first in wins (five), second in goals against (1.35), first in save percentage (.946), and second in minutes played (355:07). Those rankings are entirely consistent with what he put together in the NHL before the break: seventh in wins, second in goals against, second in save percentage, and eighth in minutes played.

The trick now is to avoid two things: a post-Olympic letdown and fatigue. As we noted in our look at the big questions concerning each team, the minutes he added in the Olympics would push him almost to the minutes he played last year (he is ten minutes short of that mark). We also noted that the additional work he would get in the home stretch…

“…could push his total minutes – NHL regular season and Olympics – past his career high of 4,474 two seasons ago, and that season did not end especially well for him: 7-7-3 in his last 17 games with a 3.34 GAA and .877 save percentage.”

For our purposes tonight, though, Miller has been less lucky than good concerning his performance against the Caps this year. Despite his having a 2.35 goals against, a .935 save percentage, and one shutout, he has a 1-2-0 record against Washington this season.

Part of the reason Miller’s record against Washington looks inconsistent with his statistics is that the Sabres have scored only five goals in three games against Washington themselves, and they were shutout once. It is a problem that isn’t limited to Buffalo’s games against the Caps. This is a club that has one 50-point player, no 20-goal scorers, and since smacking Phoenix 7-2 on January 18th has averaged only 2.43 goals a game over the last 14 games.

Over that span the Sabres have shown their characteristic scoring balance – 16 players share the 34 goals the team scored. But 11 of them came from the sticks of Derek Roy (six) and Thomas Vanek (five). Buffalo isn’t getting a lot of strong secondary support. No other player has more than three goals in that span.

Roy bears watching. He doesn’t have a goal in three games against the Caps this season, but he does have three assists that brings his career scoring to 9-10-19 in 21 games against Washington. But here is something else Caps fans might look for. Roy, who averages a little more than half a minute of penalty time per game against the other 28 teams in the league, has 18 minutes in infractions in 21 career games against the Caps.

Vanek is still trying to find the spark on a consistent basis that propelled him to 43 goals in 2006-2007 (and a huge contract offer from Edmonton as a restricted free agent thereafter, which the Sabres matched). He has 18 goals in 56 games this year to lead the club, which is probably what the Sabres were thinking would be the case, just not with such a low total. He has been held without a point in two games against the Caps this year and is 6-5-11 in 18 career games against the Caps.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Buffalo: Jason Pominville

The right winger had a two goal, three-point night against Phoenix on January 18th, but since then is 3-8-11 in 14 games. The helpers represent a solid number, but the Sabres could use some more punch from him to help relieve the burden on Miller at the other end of the ice. In three games this year against the Caps he has three assists, but no goals. He does seem to have had a knack for being clutch against the Caps in his career though, even if his numbers (5-8-13 in 18 games) don’t jump off the page.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

After having a difficult final week in Vancouver, Ovechkin now takes the ice in front of fans who had little use for him before the Olympics. His reception is not going to be warm. But Ovechkin does have 13 goals in 18 career games against the Sabres, including two in three games so far this year.

Keys…

1. Fast start. The Caps lead the league in first period goals (72), but getting off to fast starts has been lacking in recent games leading up to the break. Buffalo is not an especially adept team playing from behind (18th in winning percentage when scored on first, 15th when trailing after the first period). Get out in front, take the crowd out of it, and don’t let the Sabres put the game in Miller’s hands.

2. Irresistable force, meet immovable object. This game could well be decided by the Caps power play against the Sabres’ penalty killers. The Caps have the third-best road power play in the league; Buffalo has the best home penalty killing. In 22 games so far in 2010, the Caps have scored at least on power play goal in 18. On the other side, in 22 games so far in 2010, the Sabres have shutout opponents on the power play 15 times.

3. The Letter “D.” In the February portion of the schedule, the Caps allowed 28 goals in seven games. It doesn’t take anyone especially well versed in the fine points of hockey to figure out that 4.0 goals allowed per game isn’t good, even if you did go 4-1-2 in those games. It isn’t a recipe for success, and against a team that doesn’t have a lot of pop, allowing four goals would suggest that there are some serious bad habits creeping into the Caps’ game, time off or no time off.

In the end, the Caps are better and more rested in the key positions – their Olympians ended their participation about week ago, while Ryan Miller – on whose performance the Sabres’ season depends – was playing Sunday afternoon. Getting off to a good start will stick a pin in the balloon that is the hopes of New Jersey, Ottawa, Pittsburgh, and even Buffalo of catching the Caps for the top spot in the east. And a good start begins now…

Caps 3 – Sabres 2

Mike, you're a dope

Tony Kornheiser has a word that he uses for effect. He overemphasizes its pronunciation to drive the point home that the object of his scorn is a…

DOPE.

Well, today’s object of dope-itude happens to work with Kornheiser in another venue. Let’s go to the chat transcript from Michael Wilbon’s chat at the Washington Post today and this exchange…

Chicago: Wait, [Alex] Ovechkin is "out of control" because he is . . . unhappy with losing? When Tiger or Jordan or your other favorites are unhappy with losing, that's a good thing, according to you.


Michael Wilbon: did you ever see Michael Jordan push a person's camera in her face. Don't suggest, because you'll clearly do anything to excuse Ovechkin and anything he does, that other great athletes shove cameras out of people's hands. The reports from Vancouver are that the woman suffered bruises. You show me when Jordan or Tiger did that. It's also interesting to me, and you might be included in this though you might not, that white athletes are never held to the same standard of behavior as black athletes. Had Carmelo Anthony or LeBron James done this is would be painted as "those thug basketball players." Where's the intolerance over Ovechkin's behavior? Where are the columns screaming for him being discipllined? What kind of garbage is that? There is video of it, too. What, is it okay for a white player to shove a fan with a camera? Don't make up garbage and attribute it to a player like Jordan, who was never involved with shoving anybody. Ovechkin, according to other players in the NHL, deals out cheap shots. His own coach, if you remember the stories and stop making up accusations about others, said his star was being out of control. I'll take his word for it, though there will be plenty like you, I'm afraid, who'll try to brush this off as nothing, instead of wondering whether the Capitals star needs to be reigned in...

This was a follow-up to an exchange earlier in the chat in which he made the statement that “Ovechkin… is bordering on out of control,” a reference to Ovechkin’s Olympic experience, which was unpleasant, to say the least.

Wilbon is talking about being “out of control?” First, he gives Michael Jordan and Tiger Woods the same pass he accused the questioner of giving Ovechkin (to be fair, it was the questioner from Chicago who brought up Jordan and Woods). Yeah, you would be hard pressed to find evidence of Woods pushing a camera in anyone’s face, but he doesn’t have to – he has a caddy who has a reputation for taking care of that sort of dirty work. And as for Jordan, Wilbon has next to no credibility on the subject. There are the religious among us whose devotion pales in the light of Wilbon’s devotion to all things Jordan.

But that was all just a warm up. He veered off into a thinly veiled charge of racism with respect to the manner in which the behavior of a number of NBA players is characterized. “You might be included in this though you might not?” Gee, Mike, thanks for that drive-by shooting of a reader for challenging your wisdom.

Then he turns his aim on Ovechkin with the hazy “according to other players” sort of charge that conveniently makes a point without actually having to be accountable for naming names. A reader without knowledge of the sport might conclude that there are players lining up to tell their tales of Ovechkin’ dirty play. There are, in fact a number of players who hold this view, and even one rather famous hockey commentator (although his beef seems to be Ovechkin not standing up and taking his medicine on the ice for his indiscretions).

Then he careens into a reference to a statement by Ovechkin’s coach. As Wilbon put it, “his own coach, if you remember the stories and stop making up accusations about others, said his star was being out of control.” Here is what Coach Bruce Boudreau actually said about Ovechkin on December 1st in a press conference after that morning’s practice…

Q: Does he need to change the way he plays?


A: He's pretty reckless. It's hard telling a guy that scores 60 goals a year to change the way he plays. At the same time, I don't want to see him getting hurt. Maybe he has to pick his spots a little better… you're lining guys up a lot of times and going to hit them, and once they move, everything gets exposed. Human nature is to react; if you've got a bead on them, if you're a hockey player, is to continue to try to hit him. It's something that has to be addressed by us, I guess.

Boudreau seems to be talking about a player who needs to regulate his game, which is quite apart from being “out of control,” and also seems concerned more with the potential for injury. Wilbon appears to have ignored that context and chose rather to pick up the narrative that attached itself to Ovechkin in the aftermath of a knee-to-knee hit on Carolina’s Tim Gleason, for which he was suspended -- "Ovechkin’s a dirty player." That sounds more like the sort of thing you would read on a Penguin message board or hear on a call-in radio show.

Ovechkin had a bad week. That’s the charitable view of it, absolutely. The churlish behavior he is charged to have exhibited toward the media seems out of character, but to the extent it was true it did him, his team, and his reputation no favors (although we are starting to wonder, is “Media Entitlement in the New Millennium” a required course for journalism students these days?). His brief exchange with a fan and a camera is disturbing, but the most damning part of the story isn’t the story as much as it is some blurry video. Still, it can’t be excused or dismissed out of hand because the player in question is a star. But is this evidence of a player who is “out of control?” Is he held to a different standard than athletes of other races?

To the former, his image took it on the chin in Vancouver this week. The negative press stemming from his non-availability to English-speaking press was relentless (and, it seems, deserved to a point). As to the latter, that was just a rather pathetic instance of playing a card that really had no place in the conversation and that was just gratuitous bashing of a person asking a question.

I’ve heard Wilbon on radio in a number of instances this year talk about how his other commitments have prevented him from following hockey. But while we find it amazing that a journalist who professes to have grown up with the sport and likes it takes such pride in announcing he has no time for it, we can understand the competition for time a working journalist has to deal with in covering a multitude of sports, writing columns, and appearing on a daily television show. For that, Wilbon deserves the benefit of the doubt.

But Mike, if that’s your attitude, and if you’re going to exhibit such a superficial knowledge of what took place (his commentary sounds almost like he read a couple of wire stories and connected the dots), then save your rant. It makes you sound poorly informed and, to borrow your phrase, “out of control.”

More than that, it makes you sound like a DOPE. You might rather ponder this description of Ovechkin…

"Ovechkin is a beast. He explodes, like a tornado. Ovechkin is scary. His shot is scary. There's an aggression about him, a barely controlled fury that Crosby, great as he is, doesn't have. Nobody else has it … He's the fastest, toughest guy with the biggest shot, the fewest teeth. Every great player wants to win. Ovechkin wants to beat you down."

Who wrote that? You did. May 6, 2009.  Look it up.