A TWO-point night -- Game 76: Capitals 3 - Wild 0

Practice makes perfect.

If the Washington Capitals get enough 3-0 leads, maybe winning those games will come more frequently. The Caps got goals from Jason Chimera, Mathieu Perreault, and Alex Ovechkin at one end of the ice, and they got 28 saves from Braden Holtby at the other end to defeat the Minnesota Wild, 3-0, at Verizon Center this evening.

It was not looking very good for the Caps early, perhaps a hangover from the disappointing 4-3 overtime loss to Winnipeg on Friday. They managed only seven shots on number three goaltender Matt Hackett, pressed into service with number one goalie Niklas Backstrom injured and backup Josh Harding having played on Saturday night in a 3-1 loss to Buffalo.

The Caps broke through in the second period in another one of those occasional trips down memory lane from games that might have been played two or three years ago. Stephen Kampfer collected a loose puck as he was gliding down the right wing in the Caps’ end and tried to center the puck. The puck went all the way through and out the other side, where only Alexander Semin was skating. Semin curled, picked up the puck as it bounced off the boards, and headed the other way. With four Wild skaters pinned in the offensive zone, including defenseman Kampfer, it was Semin and Jason Chimera on a two-on-one with only Clayton Stoner back. Semin froze Stoner with a curl and drag move, then slid the puck under Stoner's stick to Chimera on his left. Chimera buried it before Hackett could get across the crease.

Going hard to the net paid benefits on the second goal five minutes later when Troy Brouwer took advantage of some dicey defensive positioning and a bad attempt at a line change by the Wild. Alex Ovechkin curled through the neutral zone with the puck and sent a pass to Brouwer on the right side at the Minnesota line as one Wild skater was going off for another. It left Minnesota with no one on the right side of the ice and thin numbers in the middle as Brouwer skated in. It eventually became a two-on-one down low as Mathieu Perreault skated to the net. Brouwer sent a centering pass that hit Perreault in stride, and Perreault had only to redirect it past Hackett for his 14th goal of the season.

Ovechkin closed things out in the third period by ripping a page out of the Ovechkin songbook. It started with John Carlson sending a long cross-ice pass to Marcus Johansson at the Minnesota line. Johansson edged the puck into the zone before being stopped by defenseman Nate Prosser. It was enough for Ovechkin to come in behind the play and pick up the puck in stride. He skated into the left wing faceoff circle and using defenseman Tom Gilbert as a screen ripped a wrist shot through Hackett to close out the scoring.

Other stuff…

-- Unlike the game Friday night, the Caps did not go into a shell after getting the third goal. After Ovechkin scored at the 8:31 mark, the Caps did register seven more shot attempts (four on goal) and maintained possession for longer periods than they had Friday against Winnipeg when posting their 3-0 lead.

-- Doing simple things right pays dividends, and in this case it was going to the net. Chimera filling a lane with his stick on the ice; Perreault doing the same. They teach these things early in a hockey player’s life for a reason. They work.

-- Give Marcus Johansson some credit for taking a hit to make a play, or at least to allow one to unfold. He managed to get John Carlson’s pass into the offensive zone before taking a hit from Nate Prosser. It took Prosser out of the play and left the other defenseman – Tom Gilbert – in no-man’s land with no backside support when Ovechkin came charging through.

-- Ovechkin does not deal in retail. He is a wholesale dealer in shots from just about anywhere. He had 14 shot attempts in 26 minutes tonight, five on goal. He also had a pair of hits, two takeaways, and two blocked shots. But what might have been his best play was getting back with Mikko Koivu circling in to go in alone on goalie Braden Holtby. Koivu might have had an unimpeded path to the net, but Ovechkin had an angle on him as he was scrambling back on defense. Koivu started to cut in on Holtby, but Ovechkin slid across his path to sweep the puck away.

-- More going to the net. Troy Brouwer outracing Tom Gilbert to the puck behind the Wild net and centering Matt Hendricks on the doorstep in the first minute of the third period. Alexander Semin and Jason Chimera one more time in the third period on a two-on-one; Chimera heading for the net. Semin took the shot and was denied, but it was another instance of going to the net and forcing the defense and goaltender to make a play.

-- Fun fact… In the month of March the Caps have had three or more power play opportunities in four of 13 games. In each of those games they have a power play goal (and won three of them). In the other nine games – the ones in which they did not have at least three power play opportunities – they have failed to record a power play goal (with a record of 3-3-3). They had three chances against the Wild and scored one (Perreault).

-- Matt Hendricks, seven hits. He is coming up on the outside on Troy Brouwer for the team lead, trailing Brouwer by 231 to 201. The Caps are one of only three teams (Dallas and the Rangers being the others) with two players with at least 200 hits.

-- Mike Knuble had an interesting score sheet. In just under 15 minutes he had no shots, no shot attempts, no hits, no takeaways, no giveaways. But he did have four blocked shots, which tied Roman Hamrlik for the team lead.

-- The Caps went with seven defensemen, and it made for some odd time on ice totals. None stranger, perhaps, than John Carlson, who skated only 11:17. That was his lowest total ice time since he skated 9:06 in a 5-4 overtime loss to Ottawa on March 30, 2010. He still had three giveaways, though.

-- Braden Holtby has been nothing if not improvement personified. In his first appearance this season he allowed five goals on 35 shots to San Jose in a 5-3 loss. Then, three goals on 30 shots in a 5-3 win at Detroit. He followed that up with allowing only one goal on 28 shots in a 2-1 Gimmick loss to Philadelphia, then the 28-save shutout against the Wild on Sunday. His save percentages went: .857, .909, .964, 1.000.

In the end, every win is precious at this time of year, but this was one the Caps had to have and should have had. They started sluggishly, but took advantage of the fact that the Wild were in their second of a back-to-back set on the road. It sets the stage for the biggest regular season game in these parts in some time when the Caps host Buffalo on Tuesday for what might be the deciding contest in a fight for the last playoff spot. The winner will have a two-point lead with five games to play, and while the Caps will still have the advantage of the tie-breaker in the event the teams finished tied in standings points (the Caps have 36 wins in regulation and overtime to 30 for Buffalo), this will be one the Caps have to have. Disposing of the Wild in workmanlike fashion puts them in the position of controlling their own fate against the Sabres.

That Was The Week That Was -- Week 24 (March 18-24)

Week 24… and we can’t tell if the Caps were treading water or drowning.

 

Record: 1-1-2

The Caps brought their five-game road trip to an end with an ugly loss to Chicago, a nice win against Detroit, and what might have been a good point in a Gimmick loss to the Flyers, except when you have left a lot of points on the table this season, that extra point left on the table in Philly was big. It would look a lot better than that one-point result against Winnipeg in which the Caps coughed up a 3-0 lead in the last 33 minutes of regulation time, then lost in overtime.  In terms of standings points, it was the fifth consecutive week in which the Caps had a .500 or better week, but having gone 8-6-3 in those five weeks.

What was frustrating about this week is that the Caps managed the first goal in three of the four games and lost two of them (both in extra time). What was anger-inducing was that the Caps scored five goals in each of the first and second periods of the four games this week, but only one in the third period and none in overtime. Meanwhile, the four opponents scored six second period, four third period, and an overtime goal among the 13 scored against Washington this week. That is the kind of wandering focus that has plagued this team for more than three games…more like three years.

Offense: 2.75/game (season: 2.67/rank: 12th)

The Caps had 11 goals for the week. Alex Ovechkin had six of them. That Ovechkin would have six goals in four games is unusual over the last couple of seasons, but it is not unheard of in his career. But five goals from the rest of the lineup? And when you realize that two of those came off the stick of Mike Knuble, who had not scored goals in consecutive games since getting three in two games last March 31/April 2, and the Caps’ offense was otherwise absent.

One of the problems was the shots not being there in the third period. The Caps had five goals on 32 shots in the first period of games (15.6 percent shooting percentage) and five goals on 41 shots in the second period of games (11.9 percent). In the third period, though, only one goal on 21 shots (4.8 percent), and the Caps did not have a shot on goal in 7:23 of overtime play.

Defense: 3.25/game (season: 2.80/rank: 21st)

It would be tempting to say that if the Caps went into a shell in the third period of games on offense this past week, it cost them at the other end of the ice. The Caps did go into that shell, but it was not as if the Caps allowed a significantly larger number of shots as their own number diminished. Opponents registered 42 first period shots, 44 second period, an 41 third period shots in the four games this week, plus four overtime shots for good measure.

One could argue that part of that was a scoring effect in the Detroit game, the Caps holding a 4-1 lead after 38 minutes. But the Caps almost gave up that lead (they got an empty net goal late in a 5-3 win), and then they lost a 3-0 lead built over the first 26 minutes in their game against Winnipeg, a game that they lost, 4-3, in overtime. It is one thing to resist the urge to take chances at one end, but one has to clamp down at the other too, and the Caps didn’t do that, a combination of passive play and goaltending that did not come up big when the need arose.

Goaltending: 2.91/.908

The Caps lost one game by getting behind early, another by not being able to score, and another by going to sleep after getting out to a big lead. If there was one thing in common about those games, and the win over Detroit for that matter, was a weak performance in goal in the second period of games. Caps goaltenders were a combined 41-for-43 in the first period of games (.954 save percentage), including a perfect 31-for-31 in the last three games of the week. They were 37-for 40 (.925) in the third period of games. But that second period? They were 38-for-44 (.864) and allowed at least one second period goal in each of the four games for the week. Third period comebacks do not get completed if they do not get started, and they got started in that second period. It almost cost them against Detroit; it did against Winnipeg.

Power Play: 3-for-9/33.3 percent (season: 17.3 percent/rank: T-14th)

It was something of a deceptive week. The Caps came into it only 4-for-44 over their previous 17 games (9.1 percent). They failed on their only opportunity against Chicago to open the week, then they lit up the Detroit Red Wings for three on four chances on Monday. They reverted to form to close the week, going 0-for-2 in each of their last two games of the week. Getting two goals from Alex Ovechkin on five shots is what the team is looking for. Getting no shots on goal from Alexander Semin in 5:25 of power play ice time is not. Getting three shots from Mike Green is good, getting no goals isn’t (he hasn’t had a goal of any kind since October 22nd). The raw numbers looked pretty good, and even though the Caps don’t beat Detroit without those three power play goals (one of which was an empty netter), it was at best an uneven week.

Penalty Killing: 6-for-7/85.7 percent (season: 80.8 percent/rank: 21st)

On the other hand, the Caps penalty killers had what was probably a better week than killing six of seven shorthanded situations suggests. The one power play goal allowed did let the Detroit Red Wings start to crawl back into the game on Monday, but overall the Caps allowed only the one goal on nine shots in 12:55 of penalty killing time. It was a case of few opportunities allowed, few shots allowed, and as a result just one goal in a game the Caps won. That has to be considered a good week.

Paying the Price: 105 hits/67 blocked shots (season rank: 10th/6th)

The surprising number in this category might be “12.” That would be the number of hits credited to Alex Ovechkin this week, five of them coming in the 4-3 overtime loss to Winnipeg. Not a big week for the big guy in that regard. On the other hand, there was Matt Hendricks with 18 hits in just 60 minutes of ice time for the week.

Faceoffs: 113-for-231/48.9 percent (season: 50.0 percent/rank: T-15th)

If there was a strange number in this category this week, it was 56.3. That was the faceoff winning percentage of the “non-centers” who took draws this week – Jason Chimera, Mike Knuble, and Troy Brouwer. The players who play at least some amount of time regularly as centers were 48.4 percent for the week. Brooks Laich continues to take the lion’s share of draws – 73 of 231 (31.6 percent of all draws), of which he won 32 for a 43.8 percent winning percentage. Mathieu Perreault was far behind in total faceoffs taken with 38 (24 wins for a 63.2 percent winning percentage). Overall, the fact that the Caps took 69 draws in the offensive zone and 87 in the defensive zone was an indicator of too much time spent in the defensive zone. And winning only 46.0 percent of their defensive zones did not help.

Turnovers: plus-14

The Caps did a pretty good job of managing the puck, at least in terms of turnovers. Then again, the fact that they had only 17 giveaways for the week might be another reflection of not having the puck a lot late in games.

Impressions:

Splitting games in Chicago and Detroit could be seen as a plus. But given the points the Caps have left on the table this season, the two they left there in the last two games of the week, both extra time losses to Philadelphia and Winnipeg, is just that much more disappointing. At a minimum it undid a lot of the good that winning in Detroit provided. The loss to Winnipeg, coming after the Caps went out to a 3-0 lead, will be the one that haunts them if they should miss the playoffs by a single point. The Caps didn’t lose ground this week, but it sure felt that way with what was there for the taking.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 76: Wild at Capitals, March 25th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals try for the third time to reach 38 wins on Sunday as they host the Minnesota Wild at Verizon Center. It is a bit late in the day for that, seeing as how the Caps hit the 38-win mark on March 9th last year, February 2nd in the 2009-2010 season (really?), and February 22nd in 2008-2009. In the 2007-2008 season, when the Caps embarked on a furious finish to make the playoffs, they hit the 38 win mark on, wait for it… March 25th, in a 3-2 Gimmick win over the Carolina Hurricanes.

Now the Caps try to repeat this little slice of history when they take on a team that, let’s face it, is not that good. Not that the season lacked promise for the Wild. On December 10th, Minnesota defeated the Phoenix Coyotes, 4-1, to go 20-7-3. They sat atop the Northwest Division and the Western Conference, the first team to hit the 10-win mark at home and on the road. They had a five-point lead over the Chicago Blackhawks for the conference lead. They were on a seven-game winning streak.

Then things took a turn. Minnesota gave up a 1-0 lead at Winnipeg and lost, 2-1, on a late goal by the Jets (they seem to do that). They would lose again, and again, and again. Their losing streak reached eight games (0-5-3, all of the extra time losses coming in the Gimmick) before they finally ended the string in a 4-3 win over Edmonton. Not that it provided much relief. It was a mere rest stop on a road to oblivion. Since that seven-game winning streak and the high-water mark of their season, the Wild are 11-26-7. They have won consecutive games in regulation time just once in that span (they have two other two-game streaks, both a product of trick shot wins in the second game).

The Wild come into this game having won one game in regulation this month, a 2-0 shutout of the Vancouver Canucks. Overall they are 3-7-1, including a 1-3-1 record on the road. And it is not as if the Wild have been playing teams especially close. Only three of the eight losses were of the one-goal variety (including a 5-4 trick shot loss to Montreal). On the other hand they have a 6-0 loss at the hands of Detroit and a 7-1 loss to Colorado.

Offense is a problem. Eighteen goals in 11 games in March, and they have been shut out three times. They started the month going 0-for-18 on their power play over seven games before getting power play goals in each of their next three games. Overall the Wild are 3-for-31 in March (9.7 percent).

Not that the Minnesota defense has been much to get excited about. The Wild have allowed 36 goals in 11 games (3.27 goals per game) and have allowed four or more in five of those games. The penalty kill is only 27-for-36 in March (75.0 percent). But the Wild seem to have come out of their funk a bit lately, having won two of their last three games and getting back to “Wild” hockey, as it were, with only five goals allowed in the three games and one shutout of their own. Here is how the two teams compare as they head into this game:

(click pic for larger image)

1. Minnesota is 30th and last in the NHL in offense. They do not come by this for lack of consistency. The Wild are last in first period goals scored, 29th in second period goals, and 28th in third period goals. For good measure, they are tied for last in overtime goals scored – one (Devin Setoguchi, if you are keeping score, way back on November 1st in a 2-1 win over Detroit).

2. As you might expect, Minnesota has fewer wins by three or more goals than any team in the NHL (four). They have not had one since a 5-2 win against Dallas on January 21st,and that one happens to be their only such win since their 4-1 win over Phoenix on December 10th that was the last win in their seven-game winning streak that was the high point of their season.

3. If there is an odd number for the Wild it is this – three. The Wild have the third best record in the league when trailing after the first period (12-18-1). Of course, no team has as much as a .500 winning percentage when trailing after 20 minutes.

4. Minnesota has only 151 goals scored this season. That total is fewer than the 5-on-5 goals scored by five other teams

5. Miscellaneous stuff…Minnesota has 692 blocked shots on the road, by far the most in the league. That total is 69 more than the New York Islanders (a 10 percent difference)… only two teams in the league have had more overtime power plays than the Wild (four)… only four teams have spent more time killing penalties on the road than Minnesota… no team in the league is out-shot by a larger margin that the Wild on a per-game basis (5.2 shots per game, 1.5 per game more than Edmonton).

1. Washington has fewer wins against Western Conference opponents (seven) than any other Southeast Division team except Florida (five). They have fewer wins against Northwest Division teams (one) than any of the teams in the Southeast. The Caps are 2-0-0 against Detroit, 5-10-0 against the rest of the Western Conference.

2. The Caps’ 5-3 win over Detroit was their first win over a Western Conference opponent since they beat Calgary, 3-1, on January 3rd. OK, they have played only four other teams (Chicago, Los Angeles, and two against San Jose).

3. Jeff Halpern is currently tied for fourth in the league in faceoff winning percentage (58.3 percent, with Manny Malhotra). You would have to go to page three of the NHL.com leader rankings to find the next Cap (at least the next one not on injured reserve). Brooks Laich is tied for 66th (48.3 percent).

4. Only two teams in the league have had fewer power play opportunities at home than Washington (109). At their home power play conversion rate, if they had as many opportunities as Philadelphia (158), they would have ten more goals. In six home games in March the Caps have yet to have more than two power play opportunities in any game. They are 0-for-8 at home over six home games in the month. They are 0-for-22 on the power play at home over their last nine games and have not had a power play goal at home since Alex Ovechkin and Alexander Semin each had one in a 3-2 Gimmick loss to Winnipeg on February 9th.

5. The perfect run is over. The Caps were one of only two teams in the NHL to have an unblemished record when leading after 40 minutes (22-0-0, with Boston at 28-0-0). The overtime loss to Winnipeg on Friday dropped the Caps to 22-0-1. They are one of nine teams not to have lost a game in regulation when leading after two periods.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Minnesota: Dany Heatley

Dany Heatley leads the Wild with 21 goals. That is tied for 69th in the league. It happens to be the lowest goal total to lead a team – Colorado's Gabriel Landeskog broke the tie with his 22nd goal on Saturday night. There are 14 teams in the league with at least three players with more goals than Heatley’s team-leading total for Minnesota. The Western Conference seems not to have agreed with Heatley’s scoring results. In seven seasons in the Eastern Conference with Atlanta and Ottawa, Heatley averaged 42-46-88 per 82 games. Since going west, first with San Jose and now with Minnesota, he is averaging 30-37-67 per 82 games. Against the Caps he is 12-23-35 in 32 career games.

Washington: Mike Green

In a way, Mike Green might be the canary in the coal mine for the Caps, both good and bad (if such a thing could be said, seeing that the canary doesn’t usually come out of this very well). First, for those who think the news of Nicklas Backstrom being cleared for practice signals either: a) that he will be joining the lineup soon, or b) that when he does he will be productive right away; look at Green. In 15 games since returning from surgery and rehabilitation, Green has a scoring line of 0-1-1, even, in 18 games. Even if one accounts for a different role for Green under Dale Hunter than he had under Bruce Boudreau, his offensive output has lagged. On the other hand, if Green can start chipping in here and there, it could be the difference down the stretch as the Caps try to outlast Buffalo and Winnipeg for the last playoff spot in the East.

Keys:

1. Find consistency. In a period, in a game, on the schedule. The Caps come into this game having lost four of five after winning four in a row. They get out to a big lead and cough it up. They pound pucks at a goalie early and go into a shell late. Playing defensive hockey with a lead does not mean treating the offensive zone as if it is radioactive. Just be smart. Push the puck deep, put pressure on it. Which means…

2. No silly high-risk chances. Minnesota is a team that is going to struggle scoring goals under normal circumstances. If the Caps don’t make poor judgments with the puck, Minnesota would not appear to have the fire power to get goals with much frequency.

3. “Coast” is not a gear. Consider this string of numbers… three, two, three, three, zero, zero, three. Those are the goal totals for the Caps at home over their last seven games. Two goals a game is not going to do it. They have scored a first period goal and taken a lead in each of their last four home games but have won only two of them. If these are like “playoff” games, then play them like playoff games.

In the end, you have to wonder about a team that just does not display much in the way of a killer instinct or much consistency in giving a 60-minute effort, even after 75 games and even when their playoff eligibility is in jeopardy. If the Caps play to form, they will get out to a lead in this game and give it back when they start looking ahead to Tuesday’s matchup with Buffalo that could mean their season (they have had leads in each of their last three games and lost two of them). Or maybe they will wake up and realize that there are only seven games left in the season… seven games. About a playoff series length of time.

Capitals 3 – Wild 1

A ONE-point night -- Game 75: Jets 4 - Capitals 3 (OT)

If on April 8th the Washington Capitals are at Kettler Capitals Iceplex packing things up for the summer after having missed the playoffs by one point, this is the game they will be thinking about.

The Caps ran out to a 3-0 lead not 26 minutes into their contest with the Winnipeg Jets, but that was the high-water mark of what became a disaster, losing the lead and eventually the game as the Jets stormed back to tie the game later in third period, winning it on a Tim Stapleton goal in overtime, 4-3.

If this was a “playoff” game for both teams, it was what Caps fans have come to know as a “Game 5.” A game in which the Caps can put an opponent away once and for all and don’t, eventually losing the game, losing their momentum, and eventually losing their eligibility to play on. You know, those games in which the Caps get out to that 3-1 lead in games and seemingly have things well in hand until they don’t. And then they dissolve like wet tissue paper.

The “getting out to that lead” came swiftly in this game. Jason Chimera got things started right…literally. It started with Alexander Semin and Blake Wheeler chasing a puck to the side boards in the Caps’ end. Semin got there first and guided the puck up the wall to Jeff Halpern. The Caps’ forward skated the puck out of his own zone and as he got to the red line eased a pass over to Chimera steaming down the middle. Tobias Enstrom was the only Jet back, and he had neither the speed, nor the proper angle to cope with Chimera’s momentum. Chimera was in alone and finished the play with a backhand to the left of goalie Ondrej Pavelec to open the scoring. It was a play made possible, in part, by the fact that the two passes that came before the puck landed on Chimera’s stick were made easier by the fact that both Semin and Halpern are right-handed shooters. Had they been left-handed, neither pass is likely to have been as accurate or as crisp to get Chimera free.

Then it was Alex Ovechkin’s turn to wreak havoc. The first was classic. Mike Knuble digs a puck out from the boards and moves it up to Brooks Laich. Then, Laich sends the puck ahead on a stretch pass to Ovechkin down the left wing. Ovechkin uses defenseman Mark Stuart as a screen and rips a wrist shot past Pavelec…2-0. The second one from Ovechkin was the product of some passing wizardry. John Carlson started it with the puck deep on the right wing boards. He chipped it up off the wall to Alexander Semin. Then, Semin sent it deep to Jason Chimera, who sent it to Mathieu Perreault in the high slot. Perreault slid it over to Ovechkin who buried a one timer, and it was looking a lot like the Wayback Machine had taken us back to the 2009-2010 season.

And in a way, it did. And not in a good way. Barely a minute after Ovechkin’s goal, Ben Maxwell got his first goal of the season to give the Jets some life. Barely a minute after that, Bryan Little edged the Jets another goal closer to make it 3-2. Then, and this really could happen only to the Caps, the Jets tied things up, not with an Evander Kane or a Blake Wheeler, or even a Dustin Byfuglien getting the game-tying goal. No…Spencer Machacek scored his first NHL goal. How? Off a Caps faceoff win. Jeff Halpern won the draw from Tim Stapleton in the Caps’ end to goalie Michal Neuvirth’s right at the 16:10 mark, but somehow the puck ended up on the stick of Ben Maxwell. He did what you do in those situations, he just threw it at the net. And with Mathieu Perreault tripping Machacek up, Machacek flicked the puck past Neuvirth’s left pad on the far side as he was tumbling to the ice. Tie game.

The rest was almost anti-climactic, because you know how these things generally end for the Caps. The Jets had control of the puck in the Caps end, Dustin Byfuglien beating John Carlson to the puck. Byfuglien saw Tim Stapleton skating into a seam in the 4-on-4 overtime defense and hit him in stride. Stapleton took a step up, snapped the puck over Michal Neuvirth’s left shoulder, and the comeback was complete. Just as we remember it.

Other stuff…

-- There are good one-point wins, and there are bad ones. This is as bad as it gets. Home ice, a chance to stick a fork in one of their pursuers for a playoff spot, getting out to a 3-0 lead, and you lose? There is not enough sugar at Domino Sugar to coat this one.

-- After the second goal by Alex Ovechkin the Caps registered a total of seven shots in the last 38:50 of the game. That is a pace for 11 shots in a 60 minute game. Ovechkin had just one of them. Winnipeg had the first fifteen shots of the third period and outshot the Caps 19-2 in the third period and overtime.

-- Of the 23 shots on goal, the Alexes had 10 of them. Thirteen shots among the other 16 skaters, none of them from Brooks Laich, Mike Knuble, or Marcus Johansson.

-- Evander Kane didn’t have a point. Alexander Burmistrov didn’t have a point. Andrew Ladd didn’t have a point. But the fourth line for the Jets went 3-3-6, plus-7.

-- Among the unsung for the Caps, Jay Beagle and Mathieu Perreault were a combined 18-for-24 (75 percent) on faceoffs.

-- That is four games in five in which Michal Neuvirth has allowed four goals. The other one was a shutout. Over his last seven appearances he is 2-3-2, 3.07, .891.

-- Masters of the quote. See if you see a theme here…

“We were just panicking, throwing pucks everywhere. We knew they were going to come at us. Their season was on the line. It’s a disappointing end to a good period-and-a-half of hockey that went to waste.”

“You kind of put your tail between your legs when a team presses as hard as they did. We’re just trying to get the puck out. But when there’s time to make plays, you have to make the plays.”

“I don’t know. We get the lead 3-0 and [we’re] supposed to play simple and smart hockey, but it cost us a huge two points. We get one, but we gave them two.”

“We never should’ve lost that [game]. We just fell apart pretty much. It was an embarrassing, embarrassing loss.”

It doesn’t matter who said what, it could be any Cap in any big game over the past 25 years.

In the end, whatever momentum the Caps might have generated from a .500 road trip against some tough teams and a strong first 25 minutes was obliterated in that last 40 minutes of the game.  Alex Ovechkin summed it up. "It's stupid play by us. We just totally stop playing after they score (the) first goal. And we played so different style of hockey in the third period, so they just put puck deep and get pressure and they score another one."

Yup…it’s playoff time.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 75: Jets at Capitals, March 23rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Didn’t we just do this guys?

“Yeah, cuz…last night.”

“No, cousin, I think he means ‘play Winnipeg.’”

“Well, why didn’t he say so?”

“Go look up ‘subtle,’ Cheerless.”

“Ain’t that a thing you put on a horse to sit on?”

Yeah, you go get a subtle and go for ride…

It was quite a ride last night…an Ovechkin goal in the first minute, lots of big saves at both ends, a dekey-do from Matt Hendricks in the Gimmick, and… a loss.

The Washington Capitals have to pick themselves up, dust themselves off, and start all over again. Only tonight, it matters. A lot. By failing to pick up the additional point in last night’s 2-1 trick shot loss to the Philadelphia Flyers, the Caps find themselves only one point ahead of the Buffalo Sabres for eighth place in the East, and they have only a five-point lead over the Jets, who have a game in hand against the Caps. If Winnipeg wins, and Buffalo wins, things will get dicey for the Caps right quick. Not only will they have fallen to ninth place, but Winnipeg will have closed to three points with that game in hand. The Caps will still hold a wide edge in the first tie-breaker – regulation plus overtime wins – but the margin for error will be gone.

But about this game. Since the Jets beat the Caps by a 3-2 margin in Winnipeg last Friday, the Jets have lost two in a row and have done so in an especially ugly fashion. First, they lost to Carolina on home ice, wasting an opportunity to narrow the gap with eighth place against a team below them in the standings and on an ice sheet where they had lost only ten games in regulation. That was a mere warm-up for an 8-4 shellacking at the hands, sticks, skates, and other sundrie notions of the Pittsburgh Penguins on Tuesday. At least the Jets have had time to think about their place in the scheme of things.

Here is how the teams compare at the moment:

 (click pic for larger image)

1. Maybe it’s a Pittsburgh thing. The Jets have allowed eight goals to the Penguins in each of their last two games, dropping an 8-5 decision on February 11th.

2. The 12 goals allowed in their last two games is a season high for goals allowed in consecutive games. The Jets have allowed 11 in consecutive games three times this season.

3. Winnipeg has played 73 games this season. Only one defenseman has played in more than 60 of them – Mark Stuart.

4. Among defensemen, Dustin Byfuglien is top ten in goals (tied for sixth), assists (tied for seventh), points (tied for third), game-winning goals (tied for fifth), shots (sixth), and takeaways (tied for sixth)…and yet he is still a minus-6.

5. Remember this number…80. It is the number of third period goals allowed by the Jets, and only three teams have allowed more.

1. The Caps are one of three teams in the league with two defensemen in the top ten in giveaways (John Carlson, who leads the league, and Dennis Wideman). Not the kind of top ten you want to be on.

2. On the other hand, Dennis Wideman is in the top ten among defensemen in power play scoring with 20 points (tied for eighth).

3. Only one Caps defenseman is in the top-50 in the league in minor penalties taken (Wideman, 48th).

4. Only two Caps defensemen are in the top-100 in hits (Wideman, tied for 56th; and…wait for it… Dmitry Orlov, 83rd).

5. The Caps have only five goals from defensemen in intra-divisional games this season. John Carlson has two; Wideman, Orlov, and Mike Green have one apiece.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Winnipeg: Ondrej Pavelec

Ondrej Pavelec has allowed five goals in four of his last 11 appearances. Yet, he is still 5-5-1 in those appearances. Since holding the Caps to a pair of goals in the 3-2 win last Friday he has allowed nine goals on 59 shots (.847 save percentage). His road record has been something less than something to behold – 8-15-4, 3.50, .893. The Jets are going to need more from him down the stretch with six of their last nine games on the road.

Washington: Alexander Semin

One wonders, had he been in last night’s game, might the Caps have come away with an extra point, either as a product of his offensive skills in regulation or his creativity in the trick shot phase? That is in the past, but Semin is going to have to make his presence felt in these last eight games for the Caps. He has 20 goals in 36 career games against the Thrashers/Jets, including a goal in each game played against the Jets at Verizon Center this season.

Keys:

1. Win
2, The
3. Game
…any way you can. We are past the point of subtlety.

In the end, the Jets cannot lose this game. They do, and they lose contact with eighth place for good, falling seven points behind the Caps with eight games to play and all those road games coming up. The Caps are almost as desperate. A loss and a Buffalo win tonight against the Rangers, and the Caps fall behind the Sabres, setting up a huge game on Tuesday. Any way you slice it, this is as “playoffy” as a regular season game gets.

Capitals 4 – Jets 2

A ONE-point night -- Game 74: Flyers 2 - Capitals 1 (OT/Gimmick)

It wasn’t your fault, Braden.

Washington Capitals goalie Braden Holtby took things on himself last night after the Caps fell to the Philadelphia Flyers in a Gimmick, 2-1. After allowing two goals in four rounds of the trick shot competition, Holtby said:

"That was terrible. Those two goals aren't even good goals for the players to score. Those just shouldn't go in. The shootout we should've won 1-0. All I can really do is look at it tomorrow and make sure I improve on it."

Caps fans might be forgiven for thinking it would never have come to that, give the way they started. Alex Ovechkin scored his 33rd goal of the season and sixth in five games just 26 seconds into the game on the game’s first shot. It was the product of an aggressive play on the part of Brooks Laich to challenge Flyers’ defenseman Braydon Coburn in the corner to goalie Ilya Bryzgalov’s right. Coburn coughed up the puck with Ovechkin right there to pick it up. He carried it to the net, and after some pinballing – him off defenseman Nicklas Grossmann and the puck off Bryzgalov’s stick – the puck came back to Ovechkin’s stick. He made short work of it, snapping the puck past Bryzgalov less than half a minute in, making Caps fans think it might be a good night.

But that was it. Bryzgalov stopped the last 30 shots he faced in the hockey portion of the show, Claude Giroux got the goal back for the Flyers on a defensive breakdown and a pretty curl and drag, and it was left to Bettman’s folly to settle things.

Other stuff…

-- Maybe it’s a practice thing. Going into this game no team in the league participating in fewer fun house follies than the Caps. Only five times this season had Washington participated in the shootout, going 2-3. Only three Caps had recorded scores, and one of them didn’t dress for this game (Alexander Semin, who was 1-for-4 shooting). Only Matt Hendricks and Alex Ovechkin had recorded goals so far this season. Hendricks scored, Ovechkin did not. Neither did Keith Aucoin or Troy Brouwer – both taking their first trick shots of the season – and that was that.

-- Claude Giroux is a shifty sort of skater, but he is not exactly a guy with speed to burn. He sure did give that impression though with the way he abused Dennis Wideman on the Flyers’ goal. Can’t hang that one on Holtby, either, even considering Holtby’s high-risk, high-reward move to try and poke check the puck off Giroux’ stick.

-- How many times do you see a team miss a chance at one end, only to see the puck go in the back of the net at the other end? Moments before the Flyer’s scored, the Caps could have put the home team in a deep hole, but the Caps hit a pipe, the Flyers got the puck, and things took a turn.

-- Then there was the adventure of Marcus Johansson 13 minutes into the second period. He got to a loose puck at the Philadelphia line and outraced Matt Carle into the Flyers’ zone. Carle could only swipe at Johansson, bringing him down as Johansson was about to take his shot on Bryzgalov. A penalty shot was signaled, and Johansson had a second chance to break the tie. It was also a second chance for a Flyer to haul down Johansson, as it turned out. As Johansson closed in on Bryzgalov on the penalty shot, Bryzgalov stuck his stick out to poke check the puck and got Johansson’s skate, tripping Johansson as he was about to cross over for the shot. As he was falling, Johansson tried to sweep the puck behind Bryzgalov into what was an open net, but he missed, the puck slid into the corner, and the chance passed by.

-- Or Mike Green just over 16 minutes into the second…when he called back to the old days and pinched in on the weak side of a play, took a pass, fired, and… Bryzgalov made a fine glove save.

-- The guy who got the game-deciding goal – Wayne Simmonds – did not have a shot on goal in the hockey portion of the game. Game’s second star? Only in Bettman land… or Philadelphia.

-- We might have been tempted to think Claude Giroux deserved that second star, until we noticed that he was charged with five giveaways (the Caps had three as a team).

In the end, if the Caps had done more with the rest of their season, one could feel pretty good about holding the number three offense in the league to one goal on their ice. But the Caps didn’t do more with the rest of their season, and that point left on the table could be huge in the end. They certainly had their chances to pick it up. Bryzgalov played well, but the Caps missed chances, too. Chance they had better not miss when they come back home to Verizon Center tonight in what is now a “cannot lose” game.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 74: Capitals at Flyers, March 22nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

End of the road…for now.

The Washington Capitals bring their five-game road trip to an end on Thursday when they visit scenic south Philadelphia and the WellsFargoWachoviaFirstUnionCoreStatesCenter to take on the Flyers. From their start in Washington to Long Island on March 13th and 2,921 miles of travel among the cities they visited, the Caps are probably happy to be in Philadelphia because…

“It’s always sunny in Philadelphia.”

Uh…and you are…

“Charlie Kelly…I own a bar – ‘Paddy’s Pub’ – maybe you heard of it.”

Can’t say I have…a sports bar?

“Is there any other kind in Philly?”

I guess you’re a hockey fan, too…

“yeah…”

You follow the Flyers pretty closely then?

“Hate ‘em…orange is a bad color, dude. Can I tell ya somethin’?”

Sure…

“I’m actually a Caps fan.”

Really, well, what advice would you give them against the Flyers?

“I’d walk into that locker room, and I’d tell ‘em ‘you’re gonna rise up, you’re gonna to kick a little ass, you’re gonna to kick some ass in the U.S.A., gonna climb a mountain, gonna sew a flag, gonna fly on an eagle. You’re gonna kick some butt, you’re gonna drive a big truck, you’re gonna rule this world, you’re gonna kick some ass, you’re gonna rise up, you’re gonna kick a little ass. ROCK, FLAG and EAGLE!!’ …now, is that why the Caps are happy to be in Philly?”

Actually, I think it was because you can’t find a decent cheesesteak in Winnipeg.

Local cuisine aside, the Caps will be looking to do a little feasting on the Flyers after their solid win in Detroit on Monday. The team they will be facing is one that has all the classic symptoms of a change in momentum. The Flyers started off the month of March in fine fashion, winning seven of eight and climbing to within striking distance of the top spot in the Atlantic Division and the Eastern Conference. On March 15th they had a record of 41-22-7 and were just six points behind the New York Rangers and two behind the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Streaks are just that, though. They do not last forever, and one can often see the end coming before it actually arrives. For the Flyers, the wheels started to wobble a bit when after posting a pair of shutouts to extend a winning streak to five games, they came up short in a 4-1 loss in New Jersey. They rebounded by shutting out the Devils two nights later by a 3-0 score, but then they struggled to beat the lowly New York Islanders, 3-2, then lost in Boston to the Bruins in a Gimmick.

On Sunday, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh played in one of the more entertaining games of the season with the Flyers winning with less than one second left in overtime on a goal by Scott Hartnell. It might have taken a bit out of the Flyers, though, as they lost to the Florida Panthers on Tuesday, 2-1, to leave them 1-1-1 in their last three games coming into this one. Here is how the teams stack up against one another:

 (click pic for larger image)

1. Ilya Bryzgalov is finally earning that big paycheck. The recipient of a nine-year, $51 million contract in the off-season as a free agent, Bryzgalov has been the workhorse in goal as the Flyers hit the top of the stretch. He has appeared in 15 of the Flyers’ last 16 games, and in them he has a record of 11-3-1, 1.82, .933, with four shutouts, three of them coming in consecutive appearances in mid-March, the other one coming at the expense of the Caps on March 4th. He has allowed more than two goals in only one of ten appearances this month.

2. The Flyers score a lot in the friendly confines of WellsFargoWachoviaFirstUnionCoreStatesCenter. More goals at home than all but two teams in the NHL, in fact (Detroit and Chicago). But they also allow a lot of goals at home, too, being one of eight teams having allowed at least 100 goals on home ice this season. Of those eight teams, only Philadelphia and Ottawa are currently playoff-eligible.

3. Only two teams have allowed more power play goals on home ice than the Flyers; only five have allowed more shorthanded goals at home than the Flyers.

4. Philadelphia has taken 341 minor penalties in 73 games, a whopping 37 more than either Montreal or Dallas (before Wednesday night’s games) – a total more than 12 percent greater than those other two teams. Only two teams have faced more shorthanded situations at home than the Flyers’ total of 138 (3.94 per game), which goes with their having allowed more home power play goals (26) than only two teams.

5. More on penalties...The Flyers have a long, hard-earned tradition of playing past the edge of the rule book. This year’s edition is no exception. The Flyers have a total of 417 penalties this season, almost six a game. That total is 43 more than the second-place club (Ottawa). Further, that gap between first and second is the largest between any other rank and its next in line in the league (Ottawa has 18 more than third-place St. Louis).

1. The Caps have won five of their last seven games. It is their most sustained run of success since going 7-2-0 over a nine-game stretch from December 28th through January 15th.

2. The Caps scored three power play goals in their last contest, a 5-3 win over Detroit. The last time the Caps recorded three power play goals in a game was against these same Philadelphia Flyers in a 5-4 Gimmick loss to the Flyers on November 20, 2010. Two of the three power play goal scorers in that game will not dress for the Caps. Nicklas Backstrom is still injured, and Eric Fehr is in Winnipeg. Jason Chimera was the third member of that trio, and he had a power play goal in Monday’s win over Detroit (ok, it was an empty-netter).

3. Joel Ward has taken over the team lead in plus-minus (plus-12). He has gone 17 consecutive games without being on the minus-side of the ledger and only once in his last 28 games. On the other hand, the Caps have five players who are a minus-10 or worse. Over the previous four seasons, of all the players having played the entire season with the Caps, only three players recorded minus-10 seasons or worse: Jason Chimera (minus-10 last season), Alexander Semin (minus-18 in 2007-2008), and Michael Nylander (minus-19 in 2007-2008).

4. Alex Ovechkin is tied for third in the league in power play goals (13), but the two power play goals he had against Detroit on Monday broke a 14-game streak without one, his longest such streak since he had a 24-game streak without one from November 1st through December 23rd.

5. Of the eight teams currently playoff eligible in the Eastern Conference, only one has fewer wins by three or more goals than the Caps (10) – Florida (7).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Philadelphia: Kimmo Timonen

With Alex Ovechkin ramping up his production lately (six goals in his last seven games), defenseman Kimmo Timonen could be a key in how this game unfolds. Timonen has often drawn the assignment of matching up against Ovechkin in these Caps-Flyers contests. His success in that regard – and that of his teammates – has been mixed. Ovechkin is 13-8-21 in 17 games against the Flyers since Timonen joined the club in the 2007-2008 season. But Timonen does bring some other tools to the job. He is 2-17-19 in 26 career games against the Caps and has 11 power play assists against Washington in those games.

Washington: Mike Knuble

Seems the lion in winter still has a roar. Mike Knuble is 3-1-4 in his last four games. There is also this odd fact about his goal scoring this season. Of his six goals, five of them have come against teams currently playoff eligible (Detroit, Chicago, Florida, Vancouver, and Pittsburgh). His last one came against a team for which he played once upon a time, and it would be a boost for him to repeat the deed against the Flyers. He has a 4-6-10 scoring line against Philadelphia in his career.

Keys:

1. Quiet Please! There is a saying that the fans are the “seventh man” of a hockey team. That is perhaps true in only a few places. Philadelphia is one of them. That means that the Caps can’t stub their toe early and let the Flyers get off fast. It is not so important for the Caps to get out quickly as it is that the Flyers don’t. If they do, the fans will be like sharks in the water smelling blood, and the Flyers could feed off that and make things hard for the Caps.

2. Volume, volume, volume… When he lost to Florida on Tuesday, Flyer goalie Ilya Bryzgalov saw a nine-game streak without a loss in regulation end. In those last ten games he has faced only 275 shots. Twice he faced fewer than 20. Don’t make things easier for him than they already are. Get in his face.

3. Don’t use a Lamborghini to haul mulch. Cute won’t do it in Philly. The Flyers play with an edge, and the Caps will have to stand up to it. They’ll need to bring their pick-up trucks, not their sports cars, and grind out a win.

In the end, the five-game road trip comes down to this. Win, and it is successful. Lose, and it is not. That stark judgment is made clearer by the fact that the Caps now hold eighth place in the East only by virtue of a tie-breaker with Buffalo (regulation plus overtime wins). The Caps cannot lose that advantage if they lose this game, but winning will put more pressure on the Sabres, who play two of their next three games on the road (one in Washington).

Games like this are like playoff games, but with more dimensions. In a playoff game, you have only the team you face on the ice to worry about. You do not have to concern yourself with other series. But a game like this, against a long-hated opponent that you might see down the road, is played in the context of all the possible outcomes of teams and games around you that influence whether you make the playoffs at all. It means this game should have the Caps full and undivided attention.

Capitals 3 – Flyers 2

A TWO-point night -- Game 73: Capitals 5 - Red Wings 3

Perhaps it was what they needed all along.

The Washington Capitals got an oxygen boost and defeated the Detroit Red Wings last night, 5-3, to maintain their two-point margin for eighth-place and the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They did it by doing things they have not done much over the last several months…

They got out to a lead early. The Caps scored first, which was only the 34th time in 73 games they recorded the first goal of the game. It also happened to be only the 31st time in 73 games that the Red Wings allowed the first goal of the game.

They scored a lot early. The Caps lit the lamp three times in the first period, an unusual event for a team that had only 48 first period goals this season (tied for 26th in the league going into the game).

They made the power play count. The Caps scored three power play goals for the first time this season and the first time since scoring three on seven opportunities in a 5-4 Gimmick loss to Philadelphia on November 20, 2010.

They got two power play goals from Alex Ovechkin. It was the second time in four games that Ovechkin had two goals, but it was the first time he scored a power play goal since February 17th (breaking a 14-game streak without one) and the first time he had two power play goals in a game since he had two in a 7-2 win at Calgary on October 30, 2010.

They got a goal from Mike Knuble for the second consecutive game. Knuble’s first period goal was his third in four games and marked the first time he recorded goals in consecutive games since March 31-April 2 last season. It was also his first two-point game (he assisted on Jason Chimera’s empty net goal) since assisting on both goals in a 2-1 win over Ottawa on October 15th.

They got a point from Mike Green. OK, it was the secondary assist on the empty-net goal to clinch the win in the last minute, but with that assist Green recorded his first point since he had a 2-2-4 night against these same Red Wings at Verizon Center in a 7-1 win last October 22nd. It broke a 15-game streak without a point.

It was the first time the Caps scored five goals in Detroit since November 29, 1989, in a 5-3 win over the Red Wings. That is so long ago that two of the goal scorers for the Caps that evening – Nick Kypreos and Alan May – are now starters in the TV studio. There was even a Johansson who notched a goal that night (Calle) and a Michal (Pivonka). For the record, Geoff Courtnall had the fifth goal, while Bob Mason got the win in goal over Sam St. Laurent.

Other stuff…

-- Gotta like the three power play goals. Even the getting a lead early. But even though these were the Red Wings, there was the matter of that third period…the Caps were outshot, 11-3 (only two shots on goalie Jimmy Howard, the other being the empty net goal). There was the matter of allowing a goal in the first minute of that third period, which had the potential to be a momentum-changer.

-- Your number one star of the game skated fewer even strength minutes than Brooks Laich, Mike Knuble, Jason Chimera, Mathieu Perreault, and Marcus Johansson among the forwards. That’s right, Alex Ovechkin skated only 12:33 at even strength. Only seven times this season has he skated less than the 16:59 in total ice time he had last night.

-- Tales of a shift… at 3:43 of the first period, Mathieu Perreault gets kicked out of the circle on a faceoff. Mike Knuble steps in and wins the draw. Then Knuble had a hit, then another hit. Kanoobie approved.

-- Alexander Semin skated a 1:25 shift midway through the third period… and would not take the ice again, out for the last 7:35. It was his second consecutive game with no shots on goal, the first time he has gone consecutive games without a shot on goal since March 31/April 3, 2007.

-- The Caps were credited with only 31 shot attempts for the game (22 on goal, only 14 at even strength). The Red Wings had 33 shots on goal. However, Danny Cleary had eight of them. Pavel Datsyuk had one. The Caps will take that.

-- Alex Ovechkin did not have an even-strength shot on goal until the 8:24 mark of the third period.

-- For the most part, Braden Holtby had a solid game, but the last two goals? It looked as if he was having difficulty locating the puck in close, once not getting his glove hand down in time before Todd Bertuzzi stuffed one in from the paint, and the other when a puck slithered through his legs for Danny Cleary to stuff it in.

All in all, it was a breath of fresh air, so to speak. Given the circumstances – flying in late, playing the second half of a back-to-back, facing a team that had a total of four losses in regulation on home ice all season – it was a fine road game for the Caps. They played with a focus that was absent in the loss to Chicago the previous night. And guys who needed to produce did, and the guys who needed to make other contributions did – Ovechkin’s two goals, Knuble getting one, Roman Hamrlik with four blocked shots, Alexander Semin and Marcus Johansson with a pair of assists apiece, four hits from Matt Hendricks, a solid game from Braden Holtby.

One wonders why the Caps cannot display this kind of effort more often on the road. Why they cannot play with the touch of swagger they had last night to skate into the home team’s arena and take charge from the get-go. But, these are our Caps, which means we have no idea which team will show up when they visit Philadelphia on Thursday.

So, enjoy this one for a couple of days, Caps fans.

That Was The Week That Was -- Week 23 (March 11-17)

Week 23…trending upward, but not so much as to shake off the pursuit.

Record: 2-1-0

Two winning weeks in a row. What was almost as good was that the Caps split the two road games to end the week in the first leg of their five-game road trip. Not that it wasn’t without its excitement, that coming when the Caps fell behind the New York Islanders by three goals – twice – before roaring back with three unanswered goals in the last 21 minutes of the game to tie things up. Matt Hendricks won it in the skills competition for his second game-deciding goal in the Gimmick this season.

Falling behind was not a recipe for success against Winnipeg, though, as the Caps spent the whole game trying to overhaul the Jets after allowing a Winnipeg goal, allowing the first, then falling behind again after tying it up. The Caps allowed the Jets to get out in front one more time, and that was what sunk them in a 3-2 loss in Winnipeg. A win in that game might have effectively ended any realistic playoff hopes for the Jets in that they would have been six points down with 11 games to play and on the wrong side of the first tie-breaker against the Caps (number of regulation-plus-overtime wins). As it is, the Caps ended the week only two points ahead of both Winnipeg and Buffalo for eighth-place, and they were themselves five-points behind Florida for the top spot in the Southeast Division.

Offense: 2.67/game (season: 2.66/rank: 12th)

If there was an oddity in the team offense for the week it was that the Caps had eight goals and only 11 assists. Two goals were unassisted, another with only one assist. Another noteworthy item was the Caps propensity to score goals early in the third period. Of their eight goals this week four of them were scored in the third period, two in the first minute of play (Mathieu Perreault both times, once to give the Caps a 2-0 lead over Toronto and the other to tie the game with Winnipeg at two goals apiece). Dmitry Orlov added a goal in the second minute of the third period against the Islanders to bring the Caps within a goal in what would be a 5-4 Gimmick win.

An 11.0 shooting percentage for the week is not too bad, which means the problem (as it has been for stretches this season) was shots on goal. Only 73 shots (24.3 per game). In six of the nine regulation periods of the week the Caps could not manage as many as ten shots on goal. Getting three assists apiece from Marcus Johansson and Keith Aucoin was a good sign, and Mike Knuble getting a greasy goal – his first since December 5th (breaking a 34-game streak without one) -- might have been an even better sign. But only three points from the defense for the week, goals from only four forwards. The Caps are going to need more in the season’s last three weeks

Defense: 2.33/game (season: 2.78/rank: 22nd)

Two of the three teams the Caps faced this week ranked in the top half of the league in offense, and one of them – Winnipeg – was a top-five offensive team at home. Still, the Caps limited them, and the Islanders, to a total of 166 shot attempts in the three games for the week (55.3 a game). That included a 32-minute stretch to start the Islander game in which the Caps were flat, allowing the Islanders four goals on 17 shots. What the Caps were able to do this week was limit opponents in the third period. Toronto, the Islanders and Winnipeg managed only seven shots apiece in the third period of their games this week.

Goaltending: 2.29/.914/1 SO

There was that four-goal barrage on 17 shots in the Islander game that made for a dent in a pretty good week overall for Michal Neuvirth (49 saves on 53 shots; .925 save percentage). Then again, he did stop each of the other 34 shots he saw and recorded a shutout of the Toronto Maple Leafs, his third of the season and his first at Verizon Center this season. Neuvirth did get both wins for the week, though. Tomas Vokoun was not as fortunate. He played well in a 25-save performance in a 3-2 loss to Winnipeg. It is part of a bit of poor luck for Vokoun (or, more accurately, poor support) in which he has lost four of his last six decisions despite allowing more than three goals in only one of them (four goals on 11 shots in 32 minutes of a 5-2 loss to Ottawa on February 22nd). All-in-all the goaltending was good enough to have gotten the Caps two wins this week, although they won the game in which the goaltending was at its worst for the week, and the Caps let a game get away in which the netminding was not the problem.

Power Play: 1-for-4/25.0 percent (season: 16.7 percent/rank: 16th)

Well, at least they scored one. Mathieu Perreault’s power play goal in the loss at Winnipeg doubled the Caps’ power play goal output over the past three weeks, leaving them 2-for-23 over their last 11 games. But it is that “23” that remains a problem, too. The three power play opportunities the Caps had against Winnipeg was their high for the week and only the second time in eight games this month in which they reached that number (they were 1-for-3 in their 4-2 win over Boston on March 10th). It wasn’t that the Caps didn’t get shots from the guys they need to get them. Brooks Laich, Dennis Wideman, and Alex Ovechkin among them. It was just that they didn’t have a large enough number of opportunities.

Penalty Killing: 9-for-11/81.8 percent (season: 80.7 percent/rank: 22nd)

Again, opportunity and success – or in the Caps’ case, failure – went hand in hand, sort of. Twice the Caps allowed their opponent five power play opportunities, and in one instance they were burned for it. Washington allowed the New York Islanders both power play goals given up this week in five opportunities. They were more fortunate (or more practiced, given the Islander game) against the Winnipeg Jets, shutting out the Jets on five opportunities. That deserves praise, given that the Jets went into that game with a power play conversion rate of 42.3 percent in their previous nine games on home ice. In all, the Caps allowed two goals on 19 shots. The .895 save percentage for the week would rank 15th among individual goalies among those that have faced at least 250 shots on opponents’ power plays.

Paying the Price: 76 hits/56 blocked shots (season rank: 13th/7th)

If you are not a scoring forward, paying the price is a bigger part of the resume. Jay Beagle continued to do his part and play the role of “energy forward” (no, really…energy is not a euphemism for “fighting” here). Eight hits and six blocked shots in three games. Matt Hendricks did his part, too, with 11 hits and three blocked shots. Joel Ward remains something of an enigma. His scoring has long ago dried up, but his score sheet is relatively blank in other respects as well. He had five hits and one blocked shot this week. A lot of his work is, and has to be, done along the boards, outworking opponents for possession. As long as he does that, the kinds of things that get picked up on the score sheet here, things that are more of an open-ice variety kind of measure, will not be reflected in his line.

Faceoffs: 71-for-149/47.7 percent (season: 50.0 percent/rank: 16th)

Where you stand depends on where you sit. If you were standing in the offensive end of the ice for the Caps this week, the conclusion on faceoffs was, “they stunk.” They won 11 faceoffs in the offensive zone… for the entire week. Out of only 40 draws (27.5 percent). It was better in the defensive end, where Washington was 34-for-58 (58.6 percent). But the Caps are wasting too many seconds at the start of shifts in the offensive end hunting down pucks they lose off the draw. Just one more reason why this team is offensively challenged. Overall, the week would have been a lot worse if not for Jay Beagle’s going 25-for-39 (64.1 percent). In fact, they would have been at 41.8 percent for the week. Doing the little things well is what good teams do. And this was a little thing (or not) that was not done especially well this week.

Turnovers: plus-7

The Caps have put together a couple of weeks on the plus side of turnovers. Part of it was getting 29 takeaways. And who led the Caps in that category? Jeff Schultz (four). One thing you don’t like to see, though, is the fact that Michal Neuvirth had three giveaways of his own in the two games in which he played. Goalies giving away pucks…that never ends well.

Impressions:

A 2-1-0 week needs to be looked at in context. But even that is hard to do. You could say that in a week in which the Caps had two road games that two wins was not a bad week. The won at home and split on the road. On the other hand, the last game of the week was a statement game of sorts, the kind of game a team with a more developed killer instinct might have won to drive a stake through the heart of an opponent’s post-season chances. If they reach the post-season, the Caps are going to have to go into hostile environments and find a way to win. Winnipeg is a difficult test of such mettle for any team these days, but in that context the Caps came up short. More disappointing, they came up short when all three of the “Young Guns” still in the lineup came up empty – a combined 0-0-0, minus-2, with seven shots on goal (of 22 total) in the 3-2 loss. It’s their team, they have to lead – on the ice and on the score sheet.

In coming up short in the one game of the week that had clearly defined playoff consequences, the Caps left the door open, not just for Winnipeg, but for the Buffalo Sabres, too. The Caps will get another opportunity to drive a stake into the hearts of each of those teams, but that is a tale for TWTWTW down the road.

A NO-point night -- Game 71: Jets 3 - Capitals 2

What, you thought this would be easy?

The Washington Capitals could not stick a fork in the playoff hopes of the Winnipeg Jets last night and fell to the Jets, 3-2, at MTS Centre.  For the Caps it was the end of a four-game winning streak and a missed opportunity to draw within a point of the Florida Panthers for the top spot in the Southeast Division.  For the Jets, the win enabled them to halve their deficit with the Caps, from four points to two, in the battle for eighth place in the Eastern Conference.

This game was a matter of two teams trading shots – not many, as it turned out (50 in all between them) – and alternating goals.  Andrew Ladd recorded his fourth goal in his last five games when he opened the scoring in the game’s 12^th minute.  The announcement had not yet been made when Brooks Laich answered for the Caps 22 seconds later.  Marcus Johansson kept the puck in at the Winnipeg line and snapped a shot at the net with two Caps headed there.  Tobias Enstrom had a choice to make – Alex Ovechkin or Laich.  He chose to step up on Ovechkin as Laich got behind everyone.  It was then only for Laich to get his stick on Johansson’s shot and redirect it past goalie Ondrej Pavelec to tie the game.

After Nik Antropov regained the lead for the Jets in the second period, Mathieu Perreault knotted things up again in the first minute of the third period on a power play.  It was not so much a product of the Caps’ being on the man advantage, though.  It was an eight-second man-on-man battle between Perreault and Jets defenseman Ron Hainsey.  Troy Brouwer sent the puck around the boards from the right wing corner.  It came out on the left side where Perreault and Hainsey jabbed at it.  Perrault came out with it and tried getting a shot off from the left wing faceoff dot.  Hainsey got a stick on it, but the puck came right back to Perreault. With Hainsey down on one knee and no other Jets in the vicinity, Perreault had a couple of beats to pick his spot.  He snapped the puck past Hainsey and Pavelec, and the game was tied a second time.

Dustin Byfuglien would break the tie for the last time just over nine minutes into the period.  With the teams at four-on-four, the Caps could not clear the puck.  Winnipeg worked it around the perimeter to Evander Kane at the left point.  Kane skated the puck down to the blue line and centered it for Byfuglien, who bulled his way to the top of the crease and with inside position on defenseman Karl Alzner.  Byfuglien redirected the feed past goalie Tomas Vokoun for the final margin.

Other stuff…

-- How could that last goal have happened?  Well, let's look at the NHL.com feed…

That first picture is at the 10:45 mark of the period.  In the circle, Alexander Burmistrov grabs the stick of Caps defenseman John Carlson and holds on for dear life.  The second is at the 10:41 mark and he still holding on as Kane is sliding the puck across for Byfuglien to tap in.  One referee is on the far side of the play, the other at the blue line, neither (apparently) seeing what should have been a two-minute penalty.  Oh, and look at Byfuglien's feet in the second picture.  Is that blue paint under them?

-- That aside, the Jets got production from players who have been producing lately – Ladd’s fourth goal in five games, Wheeler getting a point in his sixth straight game, Byfuglien with a goal and an assist (he is now 5-16-21 in his last 16 games).  The Caps did not.  Alex Ovechkin had five shots on goal without a point, and Alexander Semin had two shots on goal but was on ice for two of the Jets’ goals, to name two.

-- Jay Beagle continues to do his part.  Almost 20 minutes of ice time (his 19:53 being a career high through 71 games), four shot attempts, two hits, three blocked shots, and 14 wins in 20 faceoffs taken (8-for-13 in the defensive zone).

-- The Caps could not find a way to deal with Dustin Byfuglien.  He had the goal and assist, but he also had nine of the Jets’ 28 shots on goal.  The Caps were his china shop last night.

-- Give the Caps credit for one thing last night.  It was the first time since the opening night of the season that Winnipeg was awarded at least five power play goals at home and failed to convert any of them.  Tomas Vokoun turned away all eight shots he saw on the Winnipeg power play.

-- Brooks Laich is quietly putting together a nice run.  With his goal last night he has four in his last six games.

-- The Caps managed to receive three power play chances last night (converting one).  They have yet to have more than three in a game so far in March.  Only once so far in March have they had more power play opportunities in a game than their opponent.

-- As for the “hit” by Mark Stuart on Marcus Johansson, that isn’t even legal in football.  That the penalty wasn’t called is incredible, seeing as how it was in open ice and a blow delivered by extending his arms to Johansson’s head.  If the league does not address the matter, one will wonder what Mike Green was doing sitting out for three games.

-- Speaking of Green, one can appreciate his changing role in this team’s structure, but no shots on goal in 18 minutes of play.  Green has not recorded a point since he had a four-point game (2-2-4) against Detroit on October 22^nd.  Yes, there was that intervening injury and surgery and rehab, but his production is going to have to pick up if the Caps are going to catch Florida…or even hold off Winnipeg or Buffalo.

In the end, the Jets got more out of their big producers than the Caps did out of theirs. Tomas Vokoun probably kept the game closer than it should have been.  It was another opportunity lost in a season in which a lot of that has happened.  There are an awful lot of games of which it might be said after the season, “if only…”

programming note...We will be dark for a couple of days for a road trip of our own.  Hopefully, the Caps are still in the top-eight when we turn the lights back on. 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 71: Capitals at Jets, March 16th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

If it’s Friday, it must be Winnipeg, otherwise known as the Canadian Riviera. And here the Washington Capitals will begin their stretch drive in the 2011-2012 season in earnest. The Caps will be visiting MTS Centre to take on the Winnipeg Jets in a game that could be a death blow to the Jet’s playoff chances and a hearty boost to the Caps’ chances as they address Game 2 of their five-game road trip.

A win over Winnipeg in this game in regulation time would give the Caps a six-point lead over the Jets for eighth place in the Eastern Conference with 11 games to play. In other words, if the Caps split their remaining contests and garnered 11 points, Winnipeg would need to capture 18 of 22 available points (the Caps owning a tie-breaker advantage over the Jets in regulation-plus-overtime wins) in their last 11 games.

It would not be hyperbole to say that this game is Winnipeg’s season.

And it is not as if the Jets will be coming into this contest at the top of their game. Since completing a three-game winning streak over Colorado on February 19th, the Jets are 4-3-2. But Winnipeg, as much as the Capitals, are a Jekyll and Hyde team when it comes to playing at home and on the road. In the friendly confines of MTS Centre the Jets are 22-10-4 this season, those 22 wins surpassed by only three other teams in the East (the Caps being one of them). They are 6-1-2 in their last nine games on home ice. In those nine games they are averaging a whopping 4.11 goals per game and have allowed only 2.33 a game.

Special teams have been the fuel to spark the Jets at home recently. In their 6-1-2 run on home ice they have 11 power play goals in 26 opportunities, an astounding 42.3 percent. Their penalty killers have not been as proficient – 18-for-24 (75.0 percent) – but then again, they have not had to be.

Here is how the teams compare so far this season going into last night's action:

 (click pic for larger image)

1. In the 6-1-2 stretch of home games, four Jets have at least five goals and five assists: Blake Wheeler (5-12-17), Evander Kane (6-6-12), Andrew Ladd (7-5-12), and Bryan Little (5-6-11).

2. Winnipeg has lost consecutive home games in regulation only twice this season and never more than two in a row. They are a plus-27 (goals for/goals against) in 36 home games, but a minus-38 in road games. No team has more power play goals at home than the Jets (30); none has scored fewer such goals on the road (11). They are one of only four teams not to have allowed a shorthanded goal at home; only two teams (New Jersey and Detroit) have allowed more of them on the road. Seems the league granted Winnipeg two teams when the Thrashers were relocated from Atlanta.

3. The Jets are another one of those teams whose middling success reflects an inability to finish well. They are a respectable 11th best in goals allowed in the first period. However, they are sixth worst in allowed third period goals (75). They are a plus-6 (goals scored/goals against) in the first period of games this season and plus-7 in the second period. They are minus-23 in the third period.

4. Evander Kane has had a season against the Southeast. In 13 games against Southeast Division opponents so far he is 12-5-17, plus-9. Against the rest of the league he is 15-16-31, plus-3 in 48 games. He has three goals in four games against the Caps this season and has eight in 13 career games against Washington.

5. Andrew Ladd has not been too shabby against the Southeast, either. He is 6-9-15, plus-6 in 17 games against the Southeast. In 53 games against the rest of the league, Ladd is 17-9-26, minus-7.

1. Washington brings a three-game road winning streak into this game. Modest it may be, but it is the longest road winning streak for the Caps so far this year. In fact, on only one other occasion did they win consecutive games – December 7th and 15th, the second of those wins a 1-0 shutout of the Jets at MTS Centre.

2. In 34 road games this season the Caps have “out-penaltied” their opponents by a margin of 365 penalty minutes to 310 – 1.62 minutes per game. The power plays are 128 for the home teams and 106 for the Caps. Home teams are converting power plays at a rate of 21.9 percent against the Caps. For the Caps to equal the 28 power play goals scored by home teams, they would have had to convert 26.4 percent of the 106 opportunities of their own. As it is, they are converting only 12.3 percent of their chances.

3. Of the eight teams currently eligible for post-season play in the East, the Caps have the worst plus-minus on shots for/shots against per game (-1.7).

4. Only six teams in the league – and only one in the East (New York Rangers) – have allowed fewer goals at 5-on-5 than the Caps (125).

5. Only three teams in the league have recorded more losses by three or more goals than Washington – Tampa Bay, Columbus, and the Islanders.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Winnipeg: Ondrej Pavelec

Which Ondrej Pavelec is going to show up in goal for Winnipeg? The one who stopped 56 of 57 shots in consecutive games a couple of weeks ago in beating Florida, 7-0, and Buffalo, 3-1? Or the one who has allowed five or more goals in four of his last 12 appearances? Being really good or really bad in his last 12 games means that his numbers have been really mediocre overall: 6-5-1, 3.09, .905, with one shutout. But against the Caps? In his last nine appearances Pavelec is 4-3-1, 1.55, .951, with one shutout and one unfortunate face-plant.

Washington: Dennis Wideman

The Caps have 13 game-winning goals on the road this season. If you were asked which Capital leads in that category, you might answer, “Alex Ovechkin.” You’d be wrong; he has one. Alexander Semin? Nope; he has one, too. Troy Brouwer has two, but he does not lead the team, either. Dennis Wideman has three game-winning goals on the road this season – an overtime game-winner at Pittsburgh on October 13th, a game-winner at Columbus on New Year’s Eve, and the first goal of a 3-0 shutout in Montreal on February 4th. He is on a five-game points streak, having registered an assist in each of those games and has recorded at least 23 minutes of ice time in all of them. And of the 12 goals scored against the Caps in those five games, Wideman was on the ice for only two of them.

Keys:

1. First five. Winnipeg is said by some to be the loudest arena in the league. The crowd will be ready to do their part to rev up the home team. The first order of business for the Caps will be to win – or at least prevent the Jets from winning – the first five minutes. Take some air out of the balloon; keep things simple and deliberate.

2. Play five. Winnipeg has the best home power play in the league, and it has been only better in recent games at MTS Centre. The Caps cannot afford to wear a path to the penalty box. If the power play opportunities creep up, say, more than one in a period or more than four for the game, the Caps are going to find themselves in trouble. Keeping five skaters on the ice is key.

3. High Five. The Caps cannot afford a good game by merely one or two people at this stage. The guys expected to carry the mail have to do just that. Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, Dennis Wideman, Marcus Johansson, and Brooks Laich are the top point-getters for the Caps. They need to be at the top of their games to answer a formidable Winnipeg offense on home ice.

In the end, the long view has the Caps as a struggling team on the road this season. Their road record is 12th in the Eastern Conference and worst among current playoff-eligible teams. But on the other hand, they have won their last three road contests – at Toronto (4-2), at Boston (4-3), and at the New York Islanders (5-4, in a Gimmick). Toronto and Boston are not easy places for visitors, despite the recent struggles of the home teams in those cities. This will be a bigger test, given the home team’s record and the stakes involved. The Caps can effectively eliminate the Jets as a contender with a win in regulation tonight. That should be a powerful incentive for bringing their “A” game.

Capitals 3 – Jets 2