A Tale of Two Games on April 5th, Then and Now

The Washington Capitals still need four points. Any combination of points they earn plus points the Buffalo Sabres fail to earn adding to four clinches a playoff spot for the Caps. This is where the Caps find themselves in a season in which most folks would have assumed the Caps would have clinched a spot a month ago.

And as fate and the schedule would have it, the Caps get an opportunity to get half of that points requirement tomorrow night against the Florida Panthers. We have been here before. Four years ago to the day from tomorrow night’s game – April 5, 2008 – the Caps faced these same Florida Panthers in the last game of the regular season needing a win to reach the playoffs. A win would allow them to win the Southeast Division, their only path to the post-season in the 2007-2008 season.

Only five players skating that night in 2008 are likely to be taking the ice tomorrow night – Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, Brooks Laich, Nicklas Backstrom, and Mike Green. Figures. These are the players in whom the Capitals have placed their future with long-term contracts or with substantial compensation in the short term.

Back then, though, they were still young and inexperienced in the pressures of winning in the home stretch in the NHL. As a group they had an average of fewer than 200 games of experience apiece. But on that night the five of them were in what really was a “must win,” win-or-go-golfing game. All of them had an impact.

Brooks Laich assisted on the first goal, had three blocked shots, and was a plus-1 in just under 16 minutes of ice time.

After Florida tied the game early in the second period, Alexander Semin assisted on the second goal. He would also thrust the dagger into the Panthers’ chances to win with a goal of his own in the third period to put the Caps ahead, 3-1. He finished the game 1-1-2, plus-1, and led the team with eight shots on goal in almost 19 minutes of ice time.

Mike Green added an assist on the goal that broke the tie, had five shots on goal of his own, two hits, and a blocked shot in almost 28 minutes of ice time.

Nicklas Backstrom, finishing up his rookie season, set up Semin on the insurance goal early in the third period, had three takeaways, and skated more than 23 minutes.

Alex Ovechkin did not record a point, but he was otherwise a force of nature on his own – 13 shot attempts (five on goal), three hits, two takeaways, and more than 23 minutes of ice time.

On that night -- after a division-clinching 3-1 win -- a rather high-ranking member of Capitals management said, “there’s a little bit of destiny in this team. They’re very confident. It might be that they’re young and that they don’t know history. They don’t know about anything but looking forward.”

Well, here we are, forward by four years. And once more the Caps – these five players in particular – have an opportunity to measure themselves against that night. Have they developed the skill to dominate an opponent that stands directly in front of them in the standings and that they almost have to beat to qualify for the post-season? Have they learned the lessons imparted them in that game in 2008 and in those last games of that season by Sergei Fedorov in how to win when the pressure is on? Have they developed the character to refuse to lose when facing what could be a long and difficult summer if they did just that?

It is a mere quirk in the schedule that pits the Panthers against the Capitals once more at season’s end with a playoff spot on the line. And maybe the game in 2008 is not a fair measuring stick to compare the young Caps to the older versions of themselves.

Then again, perhaps it is. In 2008, these five players were skilled and with great potential. Ovechkin was a record setter (65 goals that season, tops for a left wing in NHL history). Mike Green would become one later (eight consecutive games with goals in 2009, a record for a defenseman). Semin and Backstrom have put up big individual numbers, and Laich developed as one of the most versatile players in the league.  But in 2008, these players were still depending on the experience of veterans such as Viktor Kozlov, Sergei Fedorov, and Tom Poti.

Now, they are the ones everyone is looking to, the ones who have to lead the Caps tomorrow night against Florida and past the New York Rangers on Saturday into the playoffs. Tomorrow night we will see how far they have come since that April 5th night four years ago.

One Wonders

One wonders, indeed. The Washington Capitals have players on their roster who are not strangers to winning. Once upon a time, Mike Green and Brooks Laich were members of a Calder Cup champion in Hershey that endured a Game 7 in the semi-finals played against a Portland Pirates team that loaded up on ringers – Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry, who each played more than 50 games in Anaheim in 2005-2006, as well as Dustin Penner, who had another 19 games with the Ducks that season – and had Bobby Ryan, a second overall draft pick and future 30-goal scorer in the NHL.

The Caps have John Carlson and Karl Alzner, veterans of a Calder Cup team in Hershey that came back from 0-2 down in the Finals against Texas in 2010 to win going away in the next four games. And there is Michal Neuvirth, a goalie who won two straight Calder Cups and in doing so not only defeated the likes of Vancouver’s Cory Schneider (in the 2009 Calder Finals) and Los Angeles’ Jonathan Bernier (in the 2010 Calder semis), but improbably authored shutouts in Games 6 and 7 in the second round of the 2009 playoffs against perhaps Hershey’s most hated rival, the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins.

And no doubt there are examples of winning among other players on this Capitals roster. Just not in Washington.

And as the Caps find themselves holding onto their own playoff destiny this season by the flimsiest of grips, it begs the question of “why?” Why does one read, after Game 80 of the regular season, such quotes as these from players after last night’s 4-2 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning?...

"We obviously let off the gas, and there was a lot of bad turnovers and sloppy play. That’s the sign of a team that, in my opinion, thinks they had it a little bit too good. It was a big-time error by us. We never should’ve had that game be where it was."


"Not being able to get a single point tied with three minutes left, it’s disappointing to say the least. We need to make sure that we’re closing out teams or finding ways to make sure that we’re getting points."


"We didn’t come out the way we needed to and took it for granted that it was a team that wasn’t in the playoffs and we had a chance to make [the postseason]. We got a little pressure off ourselves from being out of the playoffs to in the playoffs by just having Buffalo lose. With Florida only a few points [away], you start to think about all these things, ‘We win this tonight we’re in third place’ and you get ahead of yourself. We just didn’t come out and pound them like we should have."


"Missed assignments a bit and it ends up in your net. When you’ve got guys like Stamkos on the ice, you’ve got to be extra careful. We battled back, but it’s not good enough."

If there was a “Stanley Cup” for quotes, the Caps would have as storied a history as the Montreal Canadiens. How can a team that has any serious aspirations for a championship at this level be saying the same things in April that they were saying in November? Talk of bad turnovers, sloppy play, missed assignments. This isn’t the shakedown cruise for the team that early games in the season can be. This is the fight for their playoff lives.

How is it that the same players who have shown an ability to meet adversity and beat it at one level seem thoroughly unprepared or unable to do the same at this level? Put in starker terms, what is the difference between Hershey and Washington? Maybe it is the difference between an organization in which winning is not so much expected (it is) as demanded and one where… well, where it isn’t. There appear to be two entirely different cultures two hours apart, and one wonders if the traits inculcated in one appear, with time, to fade away in the other.

Some of these guys need to find their inner “Hershey” and right quick. Or it is going to be just another “Washington” sort of spring in these parts.

A NO-point night -- Game 80: Lightning 4 - Capitals 2

You knew they would not make it easy on themselves.

The Washington Capitals took a lead, lost it in the blink of an eye, teased their fans one more time with a late tying goal, then gave up a pair in the last 63 seconds off the stick of Steven Stamkos to lose to the Tampa Bay Lightning, 4-2, last night in Tampa.

It was there for the taking. A team playing out the string, starting a goaltender who had allowed ten goals on the last 71 shots he faced over two games, and the Caps themselves with an opportunity to turn the heat up on the two teams directly in front of them – the Florida Panthers and Ottawa Senators. After a scoreless first period, it appeared as though the Caps might do just that, take charge of their destiny, when Alexander Semin rifled a slap shot past Lightning goalie Dwayne Roloson moments after hitting a post with an open net in front of him.

Five minutes later, the lead was a memory. Teddy Purcell scored on a power play by taking a page from the Alex Ovechkin songbook. Purcell was lurking along the left wing wall as the Lightning zipped passes back and forth to pull the Caps defenders out of their penalty killing box. When the puck found its way to Steven Stamkos’ stick on the right side, Purcell stepped out from the wall, and Stamkos found him through a clot of players in the left wing faceoff circle. Purcell snapped the puck through goalie Michal Neuvirth’s pads to tie the game.

Victor Hedman gave the Lightning a lead at the end of a play that seemed all too typical of the Caps’ season. Nate Thompson outdueled Roman Hamrlik for the puck in the left wing corner, then moved it out to the point to Hedman. The defenseman fired a shot at the Capitals’ net, and with Tom Pyatt getting position on defenseman Mike Green to set a screen, Neuvirth never saw the puck until after it hit a pad and trickled in to give Tampa Bay the lead.

Jason Chimera solved Roloson to tie the game with less than four minutes left in regulation when Roloson could not control a shot from the right win faceoff circle by Alexander Semin. The shot bled through to the other side of the net, where Chimera was lurking. He backhanded the puck into the open net, and the game was tied, giving Caps fans hope of at least one standings point coming out of this.

That hope was dashed as the clock wound down to a minute to play. Brian Lee and Brett Clark worked the puck at the top of the offensive zone while the other Lightning packed themselves in on Michal Neuvirth. Clark let fly, and Neuvirth made a pad save. But Steven Stamkos was open for the rebound, and he quickly stuffed it in to give the Lightning the lead one last time. Stamkos added an empty net goal with two seconds left, and the Caps found themselves where they started the evening – in eighth place trying to fight off the Buffalo Sabres.

Other stuff…

-- A team fighting for its playoff life should not get outworked by a team writing in its tee times in pen, but that’s what happened on the Hedman goal and on the first Stamkos goal. The Caps were outworked for the puck, outworked for position.

-- 12 of 18 Caps skaters were on ice for Lightning goals, Dennis Wideman and Troy Brouwer on for three of them.

-- One could give Dwayne Roloson a lot of credit for this win for the Lightning. Certainly the folks awarding the game’s three stars did (he was first star). But the Caps didn’t exactly make things hard on him for long stretches of this game, taking shots from long range and getting no traffic in front of him.  Still, it was a fitting way for Roloson to wind up in what could be the last time he faces the Caps.

-- Sixty seconds of a season… Stamkos gives the Lightning the lead on his rebound goal with 63 seconds left. Alex Ovechkin has a chance to tie it up with a deftly tipped puck from the low slot with nine seconds left. Roloson makes the save. The puck goes the other way; Stamkos fights through a check along the wall by Wideman, scores the empty netter. Stamkos 2 – Ovechkin 0.

-- It was, to be charitable, an interesting game officiated by Kelly Sutherland and Frederick L’Ecuyer. It was reminiscent of the pre-lockout sort of games when impedance fouls were rarely called.

-- But there was the instance of Matt Hendricks (6’, 211) “cross-checking” Victor Hedman (6’6”, 229) to the ice. One could almost see John Biebe telling Tree Lane, “no, you’re the big guy.”

-- “Nice try” just isn’t enough. His line looked good on the right side of the score sheet – six shots, nine shot attempts, four hits, and a blocked shot. But the left side of the score sheet… no goals, no assists, and a minus-2. Alex Ovechkin is paid for what is on the left side of the score sheet, not the right side.

-- First game back from a long absence, a player might get by on adrenaline. Second game back, the rust might show a little more clearly. It did for Nicklas Backstrom last night. He was not bad, but neither was he sharp. All of that is reasonable to expect. But the third time will have to be the charm on Thursday when the Caps play for what could be their season against Florida.

-- In a losing effort, congratulations are still in order for Jason Chimera, who reached the 20-goal mark for the first time in his career. His previous career high was 17 goals in the 2005-2006 season in Columbus.

-- Brooks Laich is really sputtering on faceoffs. Last night it was 1-for-4 in the offensive zone, 1-for-7 in the defensive zone. On the other hand, boy, did he take one for the team right in the boot. It looked grim the way he went off, but make it back he did.

-- I must have missed the changeover when Vincent Lecavalier became a role player. He looks old and out of place out there. He did little things well, but are his days as someone you game-planned for over?

-- On a per-minute basis, Mike Knuble was a shooting machine out there. Seven shot attempts (two on goal) in just over ten minutes of ice time.

In the end, while it was Stamkos being clutch late, this game was likely decided on a sequence late in the second period with the Caps nursing a 1-0 lead. Alex Ovechkin muscled in against a Tampa defender and got of a shot in deep that Roloson shrugged away. Ovechkin followed the play, and the puck came to his stick again along the left wing wall. He circled out and appeared ready to send off a wrist shot from the left wing faceoff dot. But he spied Mike Green pinching in from the weak side and sent the puck across. Green had only to finish the play to put the Caps up 2-0 and change the complexion of the game. Green fired, Roloson got across and gloved the puck down.

Less than two minutes later, Tampa scored two goals. Instead of a 2-0 lead at the second intermission – Washington came into the game 23-0-1 when leading after two periods – Tampa led, 2-1. Washington, while among the better teams in winning games after trailing at the second intermission, still had won only seven games all season is such situations. There is no wonder Mike Green swung his stick at the glass in frustration after failing to convert. Then again, it was all too typical of the Caps’ season – an inability to cash in when the goods were there for the taking.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 80: Capitals at Lightning, April 2nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals have three games left in the regular season, and their fate is yet to be determined. They could finish third; they could finish ninth. They could finish seventh, too. That’s a lot of possibilities for having only three games left in an 82-game season. And the Caps will play the first of those last three games in Tampa on Monday in the last home game of the season for the Tampa Bay Lightning.

It has been a disappointing season for the Lightning. After having gone to the Eastern Conference finals a year ago and taking the eventual champion Boston Bruins to a Game 7, with Steven Stamkos having hit the 90 point threshold for the second straight season, with general manager Steve Yzerman and head coach Guy Boucher being the new thing in suits in the NHL, bigger things were hoped for on Florida’s left coast.

Then, the 2011-2012 season started, and the Lightning dug themselves a hole right out of the blocks. Tampa Bay lost five of their first six games (1-3-2). They would crawl out of it, going 7-2-0 over their next nine, but the 8-5-2 record they had over their first 15 games would be as far as they would go over .500. They would muddle along over the next seven weeks, finishing the 2011 portion of the season at .500 (17-17-3), but then a seven-game losing streak (0-6-1) to open the 2012 portion of the season rendered dim any hope of the playoffs. On January 15th the Lightning were 17-23-4 and 14th in the Eastern Conference standings. Not even an ensuing five-game winning streak could get them close enough to have any reasonable hope of reaching the top-eight. Since then the Lightning have alternated streaks. They have had three streaks of three wins or more while their losses have come in groups of two or more, six in all (four two-game skids and two three-game losing streaks).

What has killed the Lightning is an inability to keep opponents from scoring. The four goaltenders the Lightning have employed this season have a combined 3.23 goals against average and a .893 save percentage. Dwayne Roloson – the hero of last spring’s playoff run and who came into this season as Tampa Bay’s number one netminder – is dead last in goals against average (3.76) and save percentage (.884) among the league’s 46 qualifying goaltenders. Mathieu Garon, who leads the Lightning in wins (23), has not fared much better. He ranks tied for 37th in goals against average (2.85) and is tied for 41st in save percentage (.901).  Here is how the teams compare...

 (click pic for larger pic)

1. The Lightning have allowed five or more goals 20 times this season in 78 games. Sixteen different teams have reached that total with Pittsburgh, Toronto, San Jose, and the New York Islanders (not the Rangers, the Islanders) doing it twice apiece. They have allowed five of more goals nine times at home, 11 times on the road. They have one win in those 20 games, a 6-5 overtime win against San Jose on February 16th.

2. For all the goals allowed, the Lightning do a good job in one-goal games. Their 24 wins is the second most one-goal wins in the league (Vancouver has 26), and their .706 winning percentage (24-3-7) is best in the league. But when they can’t score… 12-32 in games decided by two or more goals.

3. Tampa Bay is the old diesel engine that takes forever to warm up. They are a minus-22 (goals scored/goals allowed) in the first period of games this season. That has contributed to their having a lead only 22 times after 20 minutes. Only four teams have had fewer leads at the first intermission, and there are six teams that have as many or more wins with leads after the first period than Tampa Bay has had leads.

4. More goals have been scored in games involving Tampa Bay than in games played by any other team this season (6.22/game). But low scoring games? Tampa Bay is 7-25-4 in games in which they score two or fewer goals.

5. Odds and Ends… No team has enjoyed more power plays in overtime than Tampa Bay (five)… Only New Jersey has allowed more shorthanded goals (13) than the Lightning (12), while no team has fewer shorthanded goals of their own than the Lightning (two, both on the road)… Tampa Bay is tied for the league high for minor penalties taken in a game this season – 12 against the Rangers on December 8th in a 3-2 win (the Rangers had nine; there were no fighting majors, but there were 11 roughing minors doled out).

1. The Caps are 3-1-1 in the season series so far, although all of the games have been decided by one goal, three of them in extra time (the Caps are 2-0-1 in those games). The Caps are 2-for-18 on the power play (11.1 percent), 15-for-18 on the penalty kill (83.3 percent).

2. Troy Brouwer leads the Caps in the season series with the Lightning with five of the 16 goals scored by the Caps, including a hat trick on January 13th. Jason Chimera, Alex Ovechkin, and Marcus Johansson have two apiece.

3. The Caps have allowed five or more goals in 17 games of their own and are 1-16-0 in them, their only win coming in a Gimmick against… Tampa Bay (6-5 on October 10th). They have not lost a game in which they scored five or more (9-0-0), so there is that.

4. Scoring first matters, when it is the other team. Only five teams have more losses in regulation than the Capitals (25) when allowing the first goal.

5. Special teams…Hopefully, turning a page on the calendar will help the Caps on the power play. They finished March going 6-for-34 on the power play (17.7 percent), although three of those goals were scored in their 5-3 win in Detroit on March 19th. They are 6-for-45 over their last 19 games (13.3 percent). On the other side of the ledger the Caps were 30-for-36 killing penalties (83.3 percent) in March and are 41-for-47 (87.2 percent) in their last 19 games.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Tampa Bay: Ryan Malone

After a 14-goal season last year, Ryan Malone returned to the 20-goal club this season (his fourth). He did it by scoring six goals in his last four games, five in his last two. He has been very economical in doing things lately, too. Those six goals have come on a total of 11 shots. He is 7-12-19 in 32 career games against the Caps, including a 1-3-4 scoring line in four games this season.

Washington: Roman Hamrlik

Roman Hamrlik was the very first draft pick of the Tampa Bay Lightning. A lot of players from that class have come and gone – Cory Stillman, Mike Peca, Anson Carter, Matthew Barnaby, Darius Kasparitis among them. Hamrlik is the games-played leader of that class (1,376) and fifth in points, the second-leading point getter among defensemen (Sergei Gonchar has 746 points to Hamrlik’s 634). What he does not have is a point in his last 13 games for the Caps, but he is a plus-6 in those games. Despite being abused by Tomas Plekanec for a goal in the Caps’ 3-2 Gimmick win over Montreal on Saturday, he has been playing rather well of late. He might not get the assignment of helping stop Stamkos, but he could be important in helping the Caps keep Malone from doing any damage.

Keys:

1. Score four or more. Tampa Bay is 3-29-3 when allowing four or more goals and have not won a game in regulation when doing so. Part of doing that is shots on goal, something you might expect for a team with shaky goaltending. The Lightning are 2-8-0 when allowing 35 of more shots on goal, and neither win came in regulation. And, the Caps are 21-2-0 when scoring at least four goals.

2. Force play. To get the Lightning into shorthanded situations, that is. When sustaining five or more shorthanded situations the Lightning are 7-10-2. But for teams that convert power plays it is better. Tampa Bay is 1-13-1 when allowing two or more power play goals.

3. Hammer Stammer. Steven Stamkos has 37 goals in 49 games in which he recorded four or more shots on goal. In the other 39 games – 19 goals. A respectable total, to be sure (a pace that would still be a 40-goal season), but certainly less formidable. Sure enough, in three of the four games this season in which Stamkos had four or more shots against the Caps, he recorded a goal (and in both of Tampa Bay’s wins). Keeping from him from getting into comfortable places for shots will be Job 1.

In the end, it is a division matchup, and as much as any rivals in the Southeast Division, these teams have a history. Tampa Bay has eliminated the Caps from the playoffs twice, and they have a chance to take a big wet bite out of the Caps’ chances to qualify for them this season. They are going to want to do right by their fans on the second of two “Fan Appreciation Nights” the Lightning are holding to close the home season. One hopes they appreciate the gifts and not the result.

Capitals 4 – Lightning 3

That Was The Week That Was -- Week 25 (March 25-31)

Week 25… Slow and steady wins the race.

Record: 3-1-0

The 3-1-0 record for Week 25 is the first time the Caps won three games in a week since Week 12. But it also marked the sixth straight week in which they were even or better in earning standings points from those available to be won. It was, though, a week of ups and downs. A 3-0 win over the Minnesota Wild followed by a 5-1 loss to the Buffalo Sabres. Then, games against the Boston Bruins and Montreal Canadiens in which the Caps went out to 2-0 leads, only to give them up and then win the games in the trick shot competition. Those two wins are only their third and fourth wins in The Gimmick this season. Three of those four wins for the season came among the Caps’ last five wins. The Caps had a good week, but more in the freestyle competition than in the hockey portion of the week.

Offense: 2.00/game (season: 2.63/rank: T-13th)

This was “The Week of the High Numbers.” Not on the scoreboard – the Caps had only eight goals scored in four games – but by jersey numbers. Mathieu Perreault (number 85 on your program) led the week with a pair of goals. Marcus Johansson (90) and Jay Beagle (83) had one apiece. The shooting percentages certainly left something to be desired. The Caps were 8-for-124 overall (6.5 percent). If you look at the top-five goal scorers, it wasn’t quite that good: Alex Ovechkin was 1-for-18 (5.6 percent), Alexander Semin was 1-for-14 (7.1), Jason Chimera was 1-for-7 (14.3 percent), Troy Brouwer was 0-for-6 (0.0 percent), and Brooks Laich was 0-for-9 (0.0 percent). As a group they were 3-for-54 (5.6 percent). At the other end there was Mathieu Perreault, who had two goals on three shots for the week. If he qualified among the shooting percentage leaders (oddly enough, he doesn’t have enough shots to qualify, despite having played in 61 games) he would lead the league with his 26.3 percent performance.

Defense: 2.25/game (season: 2.77/rank: 21st)

The Caps found themselves outshot in three of the four games this week. If not for the fact that the Caps had 19 shots of their own in the third period of a game long since decided (the 5-1 loss to Buffalo), the 128-124 advantage in shots for opponents would have been much wider. More disturbing was the inability to close out games with a lead. Three times this week the Caps had two goal leads, and twice they would give them back, having to win the games in the freestyle competition. And in those two instances the Caps displayed a lack of organization in their own end. There was Milan Lucic roaming free deep in the Caps’ zone to start a play that ended when the Caps could not tie up David Krejci’s stick for a tip in when the Caps had a 2-0 lead on Boston. There was the inability to clear the puck out of the zone that resulted in a goal by Andrew Ference to tie the Boston game at two apiece. There was Erik Cole left to swoop in and punch in a loose puck after Max Pacioretty walked around defenseman Dennis Wideman for the initial shot in a 2-0 game against Montreal. And Tomas Plekanec doing the same to Roman Hamrlik before roofing a shot over goalie Michal Neuvirth. Breakdowns… goals.

Goaltending: 1.92/.938, one shutout

From a strictly “tending goal” standpoint, it is hard to find much fault with Michal Neuvirth or Braden Holtby, for that matter. Holtby opened the week with a solid 28-save shutout on Sunday against the Minnesota Wild. That shutout streak ended, not because of a mistake by Holtby in defending a shot, but on trying to go all “Marty Brodeur” and handle the puck behind his net. He tried a no-look pass to Jeff Schultz midway through the first period of a scoreless game that was intercepted and converted to what amounted to an open-net tap-in that got the Sabres started in a 5-1 win for Buffalo. For Holtby it just sort of steamrolled from there until he was lifted for Michal Neuvirth after allowing three goals on 18 shots.

Then there was Neuvirth. He wasn’t exactly a brick wall in March coming into this week – 2-3-2, 3.07, .891 and one shutout in seven appearances. And after being the goalie of record in an ugly 4-3 overtime loss to Winnipeg in which the Caps gave up a 3-0 lead, he was given the baseball cap in favor of Holtby (Tomas Vokoun being out with a groin injury). When Holtby had his adventures against Buffalo, it was back to Neuvirth. And he warmed up to the occasion. He did allow two goals on 13 shots in mop-up duty in the Buffalo game. But he followed that up with 26 saves on 28 shots in Boston and 39 saves on 41 shots in the home win over Montreal. The question now is, can Neuvirth sustain that .927 save percentage for Week 25 in Week 26, the one that will determine whether the Caps play a Week 1 in the playoffs.

Power Play: 1-for-13/7.7 percent (season: 16.8 percent/rank: 15th)

Not a good week for the power play. Thirteen opportunities was not a bad total to get (they had nine in four games in Week 24, only four in three games in Week 23), but 7.7 percent is not a trend the Caps will want to pursue. It was not as if the Caps were not getting shots from the players they wanted. They just did not hit the back of the net: Alex Ovechkin was 0-for-5 in shots, Troy Brouwer and Brooks Laich were each 0-for-4. Alexander Semin was blanked on two shots. Mathieu Perreault – he of the 26.3 percent shooting percentage for the season at week’s end – scored on his only power play shot, an insurance goal in the 3-0 win over Minnesota to start the week. All in all, the Caps had a worse shooting percentage for the week on the power play (4.8 percent) than they had at even strength (6.9 percent).

Penalty Killing: 8-for-8/100.0 percent (season: 81.4 percent/rank: 19th)

Going 8-for-8 was a good thing for the Caps, especially given their troubles on the power play. It was even better given that the Caps entered the week only 78.6 percent on the penalty kill for the month. And they were humming along nicely, first allowing only four power plays in three games to open the week, their shutting opponents down in each of them. But the Caps did allow 12 shots on those four power plays. The Caps were shorthanded four times against Montreal in the last game of the week and allowed 11 shots on goal in killing all of them off. Overall, the Caps’ penalty kill was 8-for-8, but it was the goalies going 23-for-23 in saves that made the week on the PK.

Paying the Price: 93 hits/68 blocked shots (season rank: T-9th/6th)

Matt Hendricks had an odd week. He led the team with 16 hits, but in the game in which the Caps had their highest hit total for the week – 26 in the 3-2 trick shot win over Boston – he had none. Almost half of the hits for the week were recorded by four players: Hendricks (16), Troy Brouwer (11), Alex Ovechkin (10) and John Carlson (nine). On the blocked shots side of the category, a little more than half (35) were recorded by the defensive quartet of Dennis Wideman (10), Roman Hamrlik (10), Mike Green (nine), and Karl Alzner (six).

Faceoffs: 121-for-237/51.1 percent (season: 50.0 percent/rank: 18th)

An up-and-down week in the circle. The Caps alternated winning in the circle and losing for the week with over-50 percent in the Buffalo and Montreal games and under-50 percent in the Minnesota and Boston games. Overall the Caps were marginally to the good, and that was a product of being good in the offensive zone (54.8 percent). It made up for being under 50 percent in the defensive zone (49.3 percent) and the neutral zone (48.7 percent).

It was an up-and-down week at the individual level, too. There was Brooks Laich going 14-for-23 in the offensive zone (60.9 percent) but 2-for-17 (11.8 percent) in the defensive zone. There was Mathieu Perreault going 7-for-17 in the offensive zone (41.2 percent) but 12-for-13 in the defensive zone (92.3 percent). Jay Beagle was 7-for-10 in the offensive zone (70.0 percent) but 6-for-15 in the defensive zone (40.0 percent). But there was a ringer at the end of the week – Nicklas Backstrom was 5-for-6 in the offensive zone and 5-for-7 in the defensive zone in his return to the ice in the last game of the week.

Turnovers: minus-22

You might have thought it was Christmas. Of the 87 turnovers for the week the Caps had 59 giveaways. It helped leave them on the plus side only once in four games. Alex Ovechkin led, if that can be the right term, the way with eight giveaways. Brooks Laich had six, while Roman Hamrlik, John Carlson, and Karl Alzner had five apiece. On the other side, the Caps did have 30 takeaways, with the Alexes – Ovechkin (five) and Semin (seven) getting 12 of them.

Impressions:

“How” matters for the Beauty Contest System of ranking college football teams where a lot of data get thrown into a calculating engine and out spits a digital ranking. Here? Now? Results count. And a 3-1-0 record for the week is nothing to argue with. Sure, one can say that two of the wins coming in the Gimmick is not the most accurate reflection of the Caps’ play this week, that blowing two two-goal leads is playing with fire, that if it was Pittsburgh or Philadelphia or the Rangers they were playing instead of Minnesota, Boston, and Montreal, that the results would have been very different. That all might be true, but the Caps had these four games on their schedule this week and earned six points. At the moment, nothing else matters. If they can earn six points in Week 26, they can win the Southeast Division and get home ice advantage for an opening round of the playoffs, most likely against the New Jersey Devils.

A TWO-point night -- Game 79: Capitals 3 - Canadiens 2 (OT/Gimmick)

When the Washington Capitals scored two goals in the first 16 minutes of last night’s game against the Montreal Canadiens, fans could almost smell the pizza, almost taste the wings. Discounts on such fare from local establishments are the prizes if the Caps score four or five goals in a game, and the Caps seemed well on their way to reaching those totals.

In fact, in the first ten minutes the Caps looked as if they were going to skate the Canadiens out of Verizon Center and into the Potomac River. The Caps had eight shot attempts (six on goal) to none for the Canadiens in the first five minutes, including a goal by Mathieu Perreault on a nice centering feed from Alexander Semin at 4:16. The shot attempts would reach 11-2 for the Caps (8-1 in shots on goal) by the time the clock hit 10:00.

When Jay Beagle converted a pass from the corner by Matt Hendricks at the 18:10 mark, the attempts had reached 21-5 (shots were 12-4), and the Caps were humming. Then, things took a turn. The momentum the Caps worked hard to build in the first 19 minutes slammed to a halt in the last minute of the period. Max Pacioretty picked up the puck deep in his own end and skated out and up the left wing. Marcus Johansson took a bad angle on him in the neutral zone that prevented him from halting Pacioretty’s progress. Then, the Montreal forward curled past defenseman Dennis Wideman and to the net. Goalie Michal Neuvirth made the initial save, but Erik Cole put back the rebound, and Montreal was back in it at 2-1 at the first intermission.

The Montreal momentum carried over to the second period, in which a Canadien score seemed like an inevitability almost from the drop of the puck to start the period. They finally converted in the 15th minute of the period on another case of beating a Caps defenseman wide. This time it was Tomas Plekanec beating Roman Hamrlik wide and flipping a shot over Neuvirth’s left shoulder and under the crossbar to tie the game.

After that it was a case not the Caps playing for food specials for the fans, but fans wondering if the Caps were playing themselves out of the playoffs. If not for Michal Neuvirth, who stopped the last 20 shots he faced after the Plekanec goal, the game would have ended in disaster for the Caps. But stop them he did from the late second period through overtime, and it was left to the freestyle portion of the show. And there, old teammates renewed acquaintances – Matt Hendricks and Peter Budaj, who played together in Colorado for the Avalanche.

One might have thought Budaj had seen “The Paralyzer” move in practice when the two played together, and perhaps this was on Hendricks’ mind when he picked up the puck at center ice. Whatever was on his mind, he skated in, did the mule kick as if to signal his signature move, and that seemed to freeze Budaj for an instant. But rather than go to his backhand, Hendricks pulled the puck onto his forehand and slipped it past Budaj’s left pad. After Hendricks’ score, and a save and a miss at the other end, it was left to Alexander Semin to decide it, and that he did, deftly slipping the puck between Budaj’s pads and sending Caps fans home happy, if perhaps a bit hungry.

Other stuff…

-- The Caps played in four trick-shot competitions in March. Matt Hendricks was 4-for-4 in them.

-- The Caps outshot the Canadiens, 8-1, in the first ten minutes. Over the last 55 minutes they were outshot by Montreal, 40-27.

-- The blue line really had a tough time in this one. Dennis Wideman had an especially rough game, consistently being beaten by faster Canadien forwards. Roman Hamrlik and John Carlson had their adventures, too.

-- Wideman was whistled for two penalties last night and spent what seemed to be entirely too much time yapping at referees about it and play in general. It did not help the cause.

-- Nicklas Backstrom skated 19:40 in his first game back after a 40-game absence to injury. Seven shot attempts (two on goal), one takeaway, and 12 wins in 18 faceoffs. Not as much rust as one might have expected after missing half a season.

-- What was it with the linesmen last night? Rarely will you find them getting in the way of so many passes and pucks as last night. There were at least half a dozen instances in which passes or pucks were otherwise deflected by officials’ skates.

-- The Caps had 33 shots on goal last night. Every Cap had at least one except Marcus Johansson. Of Montreal’s 41 shots on goal, every skater had at least one except for Petteri Nokelainen and Brad Staubitz, who had a combined total of 10:14 of ice time.

-- Although Montreal ended the game with a 41-33 shot advantage, but the teams ended the game even in shot attempts (68).

-- It is always nice to see a grinder get a star, and Jay Beagle has played his role well in March – three goals from a fourth liner, including a nice go-to-the-net goal last night. But we think Hendricks really deserved one. There was the Gimmick score, the pass out of the corner that set up Beagle’s score, and there was his flattening Brad Staubitz late in the second period that awakened the crowd. He won four of five draws for good measure.

-- Mathieu Perreault seems fearless. How many goals does he get inside of 20 feet? Last night he got one by sneaking down the middle while Alexander Semin was shooting, collecting a rebound, and reloading for a pass. But who was that who charged down the middle first, tying up Erik Cole and taking him out of the middle to create the opening for Perreault? Oh…Hendricks.

-- The Caps have played in three extra-time games in their last five.  In all of them they surrendered multiple-goal leads and relied on the Gimmick to win two of them (they lost the other in overtime to Winnipeg).

In the end, style points count for squat. It’s the standings points, and whether earned pretty or earned ugly, two points is two points. The Caps got theirs, and Buffalo did not. The two points also kept Washington within arm’s reach of the Florida Panthers for the top spot in the Southeast Division, an important consideration given that the teams could be playing for the Division title on Thursday. This win coupled with the win in Boston on Thursday not only leave the Caps in control of their own destiny once more, but give them some breathing room, since they now have that two point advantage over Buffalo and hold the tiebreaker advantage over both the Sabres and Florida in the event of a tie after 82 games. A two-game “winning streak" – their first consecutive wins in more than two weeks – has come at the right time.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 79: Canadiens at Capitals, March 31st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals live to skate another game with meaning. Tonight, it will be the Montreal Canadiens who come into Verizon Center to try and dash the hopes of the men in red and their fans. For the Canadiens it is a chance to…

“Bon-jore.”

Cheerless?

“Uh…Bon-jore mon...uh, mone koo-sin.”

Bonjour, mon cousin, comment ça va?

“uh…je…je…oh crappe…”

You spring for the French version of Rosetta Stone there, Cheerless?

“I just thought since these are the Canadiens and all, that I had to speak ‘en Frenchy,’ as they say.”

I admire a fellow looking to expand his horizons.

“I’ve even started taking classes in, uh… how you say… French cuisine.”

Do tell. What is your specialty?

“Something I call, “Pommes Frites avec le Yoo-Hoo.”

Pass!

The Caps and the Habs wrap up their season series tonight, and the Caps have a chance to sweep the season series. The Caps captured the first three games of this year’s season series, two of them by 3-0 scores and the third by a 4-1 margin. It is part of a long, hard season of pain and intrigue for the Canadiens, a team that could, if they fail to win another game, finish with fewer than 30 wins in a full season for only the second time in 49 years (and back in 1962-63, when they had 28 wins, the league played a 70-game season, not the 82-games season it plays now).

Mediocrity might be a step up for Montreal, and that would be a pretty good description of their play. In their last dozen games going into last night's action they had a record of 4-4-4 (going into Friday’s game against the Rangers). They have been outscored, 31-29 over that span. They have had a decent power play (18.9 percent on 7-for-27) and a respectably penalty kill (37-for-44, 84.1 percent). They have found just enough ways to lose. Of the eight losses, five were by one goal, four of them in extra time. Another was a two-goal loss in which the opponent scored a power play goal in the last minute of the game.

And it has not worn well in Montreal. The Canadiens relieved general manager Pierre Gauthier of his duties on Thursday, and Bob Gainey – Gauthier’s predecessor in the GM position – left his role as team advisor. It did not sit well with Canadiens forward Erik Cole, who sounded as if he might have been a Caps player talking about that team…

“…it just goes to show how poorly we’ve underperformed (performed) this year as a group. Maybe in some other organizations a season like this can be written off or tolerated, but I feel that with the winning tradition and culture here, it’s just unacceptable. And it’s on us as players. We’ve cost several persons their positions in this organization this year, and that’s something that we should all be ashamed of and (should force us to) look in the mirror. It’s up to us to get better and be better as a group.”

Seems as though there are other places in which a team’s play is characterized as “unacceptable.”  Here is how the teams compared before last night's games...

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1. Montreal is another of those teams that does not seem to finish games well. They play teams relatively even for 20 minutes, being a plus-6 (goals for/goals against) in the first period of games this season. They are just about as good in the second – plus-3. But in the third period the Canadiens are a minus-20 with the seventh highest total of third period goals allowed (81 in 78 games).

2. Montreal can score in one situation. They lead the league in 5-on-3 goals scored (seven). They have allowed only one goal in 3-on-5 situations.

3. Part of Montreal’s problem in the third period is that they hang around, but don’t close the deal, then give up empty net goals. Only five teams have allowed more empty net goals than the Canadiens.

4. The Canadiens are not an especially disciplined team, and by that we do not mean that they drop the mitts much (tied for 20th in fighting majors). No, their problem is more mundane – only two teams have committed more minor penalties. Only Philadelphia has found themselves in more shorthanded situations. The results have been especially hard on Montreal on the road. They are a minus-33 (power plays for/power plays against) on the road, the third worst such mark in the league.

5. Montreal does not play well with a lead, not that they get many. They have the second-worst record in the league when leading after the first period, not that they get many opportunities (only 26 leads in 78 games). They have the third-worst record when leading after 40 minutes (only 31 leads).

1. The Caps are not fast starters. Their 53 first period goals is the sixth-fewest number of such goals in the league. It has contributed to a minus-13 mark (goals for/goals against) in the first period of games. They are no better in the second period (minus-14), but the problem is at the other end of the ice. Their 80 goals allowed in the middle frame is the fourth-highest number of goals allowed.

2. As one might expect, the Caps are an above-.500 team when outshooting opponents (.516) and a below-.500 team when outshot (.478). Their problem? They have outshot opponents only 31 times in 78 games and have been outshot 46 times.

3. The Caps play well with a lead in this respect. They have only one loss in regulation when leading after one period; they have no losses in regulation when leading after two periods. Again, the problem is frequency. In the first period of games they took only 25 leads into intermission while trailing 31 times. In the second period, 24 leads, 34 times they trailed.

4. The Caps didn’t get the memo on the Gimmick. Only two teams have participated in fewer trick shot competitions this season than Washington (seven, with a 3-4 record) – Tampa Bay and Carolina. Only Carolina has fewer wins (none). Maybe it is not a bad thing. The Caps have the third worst save percentage in the freestyle portion of the show (.522).

5. The Caps can lose ugly. Only two teams – Columbus and Tampa Bay – have suffered more losses by three or more goals. Seventeen of their 31 losses in regulation have come by that margin.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Montreal: Max Pacioretty

Max Pacioretty started the month of March as if he was shot out of a cannon. He was 5-7-12 in Montreal’s first seven games, his longest scoring streak of the season. Then... he has not recorded a goal in any of his last ten games and has just one point in his last seven contests. Montreal is 1-3-3 in those last seven games. Pacioretty does not have a point in three games against the Caps this season, and he is 0-3-3 in ten career games against Washington.

Washington: Michal Neuvirth

OK, kid… you have the keys to the car. With Tomas Vokoun having apparently reinjured his “lower body,” it is now Michal Neuvirth’s net. He was solid in relief in the Caps’ 3-2 Gimmick win over Boston on Thursday. He will need to be that, and more, over the last four games if it comes to that. Certainly he needs to be better than his record since shutting out Toronto on March 11th. In five appearances he is 2-1-1, 3.54, .881. Performance has not been his problem against Montreal. He is 2-0-0, 0.50, .984 with one shutout in two appearances against the Canadiens this season and 3-1-0, 1.81, .935 with one shutout in his career against Montreal.

Keys:

1. Pressure. Fifteenth-place teams have nothing to play for but pride. And if a team gets out fast against such teams, there is only just so far pride will take that worn-down team. Watch the first ten minutes for who has the puck in whose end more.

2. More pressure. Carey Price seems to like a nice calm sea of ice. When in his rhythm, there are no acrobatics, no flailing, no demonstrations of displeasure. Get bodies in front of him, whack at his pads when the puck is in close. Maybe he’ll think about shooting the puck at a gaggle of Caps…

3. And still more pressure. The Caps have suffered a lack of power play opportunities. Only two teams have had fewer at home. Keep the heat on, force the Canadiens into mistakes and perhaps penalties. Only one team has been shorthanded more often than the Canadiens on the road. Make them add to that total.

In the end, two points is the only adequate outcome in this game with the Caps playing two of their last three on the road. They should not lack for motivation. It is Fan Appreciation Day with what should be a good crowd. The Caps can put space between themselves and the Buffalo Sabres, putting pressure on the Sabres to keep up. The can tie Ottawa in points for seventh place (Ottawa has a game in hand and is at Philadelphia tonight).  They can close to within two points of first in the Southeast Division with a game against Florida coming up next week. If they come out flat in this one, there really will not be much left to say about this team.

Capitals 4 – Canadiens 1

A Night in the Life of Timmah

Click pics for larger images

photos: Elsa/Getty Images, Comcast Sports Net

A TWO-point night -- Game 78: Capitals 3 - Bruins 2 (OT/Gimmick)

A tease.

That is what the Washington Capitals seem to be to their fans… a tease. One game they walk into an opponent’s rink, pot three goals in the first period, and skate off with a win against a team that rarely loses at home. Then they skate onto their own ice, their own fans cheering as if it was a playoff game, and have their lunch eaten in front of them by the team they have to beat to make the playoffs.

A tease. And it was all on display last night as the Caps took a lead, gave it back, battled adversity, couldn’t close the deal, then snatched victory from the jaws of playoff oblivion by defeating the Boston Bruins, 3-2, in Bettman’s Folly.

The Caps actually had about a game’s worth of action in the first period without actually accomplishing anything. First, they had only two shots on goal for the period, and one of those came off an ugly giveaway by Brad Marchand that Alex Ovechkin turned into a long range wrist shot that Tim Thomas easily turned aside. Washington had a total of six shot attempts on goal in the first period (two shots on goal), none of those attempts coming in the last 7:15 of the period.

There was a reason for that, though, at least the last 7:15 part. Jason Chimera was disqualified for taking a five minute major penalty for charging and a game misconduct for charging and slamming Adam McQuaid into the glass behind the Boston with six minutes left in the period. Although to hear Boston play-by-play announcer Jack Edwards tell it, Chimera started his run from Widener Library on the Harvard University campus.

It would not be the only bit of misfortune to fall upon the Caps. Tomas Vokoun left the game with 1:35 to go in the first period, appearing to have aggravated a groin injury that had kept him out of the lineup for the past two weeks. Actually, Vokoun appeared to be laboring long before that, appearing to have sustained the new problem when making an awkward attempt to save a shot by Brad Marchand at the 7:23 mark of the first period.

Michal Neuvirth took over, and one might have been forgiven for thinking, “ugh.” Not so much because of Neuvirth having troubles lately (though he has), but for this being just one more piece of adversity the Caps would not be able to deal with.

But Neuvirth did what he had to do. He made the saves he needed to make while the Caps got their bearings about them. The trouble was, it took them a while to do that. But do that they did, and with the clock ticking toward the eight-minute mark of the third period, they got on the board. Boston got caught in a mistake made by two players in the blink of any eye.

With Marcus Johansson carrying the puck down the right wing boards, all eyes went to him by the mean wearing black jerseys, including Rich Peverley and Patrice Bergeron. Bergeron eased out from inside the faceoff circle to close on Johansson, but that meant there were three Bruins surrounding the Cap forward. Meanwhile, Peverley lost track of what was going on in the middle of the ice, where Dennis Wideman was jumping into the void left by Bergeron. By the time he realized his mistake, Peverley could not get around Alex Ovechkin to close on Wideman, and the Cap defenseman has a clear shot at the Boston net, which he buried behind Thomas on a feed from Johansson.

Not two minutes later, Johansson got a goal of his own when he finished a two-on-one with Ovechkin. With 10:06 to go and Boston not exactly the picture of offensive pressure at the other end (20 total shots on goal with nothing to show for it at that point), it looked good for the Caps.

Did we say they were a tease? David Krejci halved the lead with a redirect with 3:10 to go, and Andrew Ference brought the Bruins all the way back with a slapper from the top of the zone through a screen with 1:16 left.

The Caps, recognizing that one point would not do, carried play in the overtime with seven shot attempts (three on goal) to five for Boston (one on goal), but could not win in the hockey portion of the game. That left things to the trick shot competition where Matt Hendricks would score (again), where Alexander Semin kept hope alive with a goal, and where Brooks Laich finally finished things off with a strange looking backhand that probably looked more strange to a befuddled Tim Thomas who bit on Laich’s feint to the left before watching the puck sail by him on the other side.

Other stuff…

-- Those two late goals… the Caps could have done things a bit better in front of Michal Neuvirth to help out. On Krejci’s goal, John Carlson could not see clear to tying up Krejci’s stick, allowing the Boston forward to angle it across his body and tip the incoming shot from Zdeno Chara past Neuvirth. On the Ference goal, the play started when Karl Alzner tried to snap the puck out of the zone along the wall. Mike Knuble was backing up to take the puck or feed it along, but backed himself right out of the zone. Krejci cut in front of Knuble to head off the puck, sent it across to Andrew Ference, and the game was tied an instant later.

-- Does Matt Hendricks have some secret lair in Northern Virginia – the Matt Cave – where he practices these trick shot moves? The guy is a machine.

-- If he does, maybe he can let Brooks Laich have a few hours in it to practice faceoffs. Four for 18? OK, he was 2-for-11 against Bergeron, who is a good faceoff man, but that number really has to get better if the Caps are to get into or do any damage in the playoffs. The margin for error now comes down to the little things. And really, this isn’t so little, give than Laich takes the biggest share of draws.

-- Boston managed only four shots on goal – only one inside of 30 feet – on the five-minute power play after Chimera’s penalty. It was a huge kill.

-- On that penalty. Jack Edward’s breathless commentary aside, if you roll the tape to the moment of the hit, it was not that bad. A penalty, perhaps – perhaps – but a five and a game? We will not argue that McQuaid embellished anything. The young man was injured on the play – a cut and perhaps a head injury. But was that a product of the awkward way McQuaid turned just before Chimera hit him, presenting his head to the glass? It was an unfortunate incident all around, and one hopes McQuaid gets back onto the ice quickly.

-- If Brad Marchand is the “Little Ball of Hate” – and we are sorry, that nickname was and always will be for Pat Verbeek – then what is Matt Hendricks? Six hits in 16 minutes. Rumbling Boulder of Pain? Little Brick Through Your Front Window?

-- Watching Tomas Vokoun walking gingerly down the tunnel at TD Garden, looking at the back of his jersey, was not what Caps fans thought of or hoped for as perhaps their last look at Vokoun as a Cap. They were hoping to see the logo of his jersey as he was lifting his first Stanley Cup. It might end up being the single image that adds a period to the end of this season.

-- Like that saucer pass Alex Ovechkin put on Marcus Johansson’s stick for that second goal? Somewhere in TD Garden, Nicky smiled.

-- Mike Green, “Defensive Defenseman?” Almost 25 minutes, two shots on goal, four shots blocked (tied for the team lead), no goals scored while on ice.

-- Ovechkin gets the chocolate bunny for all the ink on the score sheet. Two assists, plus-2, five shots, ten shot attempts, two hits, two giveaways, a takeaway, a blocked shot, and one faceoff (a loss). Throw in a colored egg.

In the end, the Caps did what the Caps do. They give glimpses of being a team that can weather diversity and do what they have to do to win. Going into Boston and winning two games, both of them a product of withstanding Bruin comebacks, is no small thing. But did we say that the Caps are a tease? Let’s see if they parlay this into a strong effort on Saturday, of if they go all “Buffalo” on us. For now, though, it is a good win.

Winter Blunderland

Cities with teams in both major professional winter sports*...

“It's not whether you got knocked down;

it's whether you get back up.”
-- Vince Lombardi

 

Now...Washington will get back up, won't it?

 

 

 

*  Records of cities' best team in each sport, as of March 28th.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 78: Capitals at Bruins, March 29th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals are packing up their hopes and dreams in the luggage of desperation and jetting to Boston tonight to meet the Bruins in a…

“Can we call it a ‘must game’ now, cousin?”

Yeah, Fearless, I think we’re pretty much there.

“I thought it was a ‘hockey game.’ Did I miss the newsletter, cuz?”

No, Cheerless, it’s just that the Caps have five games left and really can’t afford to be giving up any more points.

“So, is it a ‘must hockey game,’ or a ‘hockey must game?’”

It’s a “must win” game, Cheerless.

“But it’s still a hockey game.”

Yes, it’s still a hockey game.

“But a ‘must win’ game.”

Yes.

“And what if they don’t win? Do they get shot or something?”

No.

“Then why do you call it a ‘must win’ game?”

Because if they don’t win, they’re not likely to go to the playoffs.

“And?”

And what?

“And…that’s it? They don’t go to the playoffs?”

That’s right.

“Y’all need t’get a grip, cuz. There’s more important stuff going on these days.”

You mean like oral argument on the Affordable Care Act?

“Huh?... Nah. There’s that Route 29 Batman guy. And Martina Navratilova getting kicked off Dancing With The Stars. And the news that there’ gonna be a sequel to ‘Anchorman.’ There’s real stuff goin’ on, cuz.”

You have a point, as always, Cheerless.

Meanwhile, amidst this whirlwind of news, the Caps will be in Boston to try to salvage their chances at making the playoffs. It is not looking good, not when you consider that the Caps are 2-3-2 in their last seven games and headed out of town having gone a disappointing 1-1-1 on a three-game home stand. And on top of that, the Caps are not catching the Bruins at the most opportune time. Boston comes into this game having won three games in a row and five of their last six after enduring a four-game losing streak in which they allowed 21 goals and scored only eight of their own.

In this five-of-six stretch Boston has outscored their opposition, 23-10, including an 8-0 annihilation of the Toronto Maple Leafs on March 19th. In none of those six games did the Bruins allow more than two goals. It is a far cry from their performance earlier in the month, when they lost the services of back-up goaltender Tuukka Rask to a groin/abdomen strain and lost six of eight games in especially ugly fashion.

The “ugly” was some uncharacteristically loose goaltending from Tim Thomas, who earned the decision in each game of that 2-6-0 run, marrying that record to a 4.26 goals against average and a .830 save percentage. By the time the Bruins hit bottom in this streak with a 6-2 loss at Florida on March 15th, they were only one standings point ahead of the Ottawa Senators for the top spot in the Northeast Division.

Since then, though, the Bruins have righted themselves in winning five of six, and Thomas’ performance has been a big part of the turnaround. During this stretch he is 4-1-0, 1.58, .938, with one shutout. Just what the Caps need… another hot goaltender in front of them. Thomas has had a solid career mark against the Caps, too. In 22 career appearances he is 14-5-2, 2.49, .924, with one shutout. This season he is 1-1-0, 2.53, .924.  Here is how the teams compare...

 (click pic for larger image)

1. Looking for a line that is clicking? Chris Kelly, Benoit Pouliot, and Brian Rolston are have nine of the Bruins’ 23 goals in this 5-of-6 run, and they are a combined 9-16-25.

2. The Bruins did get two power plays in their 8-0 blowout of the Maple Leafs, but otherwise it has been a rather dormant power play. Over their last six games they are 2-for-13 (15.4 percent), and they are 4-for-40 (10.0 percent) since February 28th.

3. Only once in these last six games have the Bruins allowed more than 30 shots in a game (Tim Thomas stopped 42 of 44 shots in a 4-2 win over the Los Angeles Kings), and they have held opponents under 20 shots twice.

4. Boston can get you from anywhere, or more precisely, from anyone. The Bruins have ten players with at least ten goals and 20 players with at least ten points. By way of comparison, the Caps have 9 and 16, respectively.

5. Want to sound smart? Tell your friends, “watch that Peverley guy…he’s a Cap killer.” Rich Peverley has played in 19 career games against the Caps and is 7-9-16. He also has seven of his ten goals for the season at home. He has two goals in two games against the Caps this season. Yup… watch that guy.

1. For those of you putting your eggs in a “five-game winning streak” basket to end the year, the Caps have not won five in a row since their seven-game streak to open the season. They have had two four-game streaks, the last one ending on March 13th.

2. The Caps might want to move to the Northeast Division. Their standings points percentage against teams in the Northeast (12-6-0, .667) is the best they have against any division, including their own Southeast Division.

3. Since losing to the Bruins on October 21, 2010, the Caps have alternated losses and wins in their series with the Bruins, going 3-3-0. The last time they met, the Caps won, 4-3, at TD Garden on March 10th.

4. Secondary Scoring… Troy Brouwer does not have a goal since March 6th (11 games). Brooks Laich does not have a goal since March 16th (six games). Marcus Johansson does not have a goal since March 8th (ten games). John Carlson does not have a goal since February 22nd (17 games). Mike Green does not have a goal since October 22nd (20 games).

5. If Tomas Vokoun gets the call tonight, he has one of those unfortunate records against a team built by playing for poor ones. While he is 7-10-1-2 against the Bruins over his career (one tie), he does have a 2.66 goals against average and a pretty good .926 save percentage with two shutouts.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Boston: Brian Rolston

One of those 20 players with at least ten points for the Bruins is Brian Rolston. Along with defenseman Mike Mottau, Rolston was obtained in trade from the New York Islanders at the trading deadline for Yannick Rienndeau and Marc Cantin. In 16 games with Boston, Rolston is 3-10-13, plus-7. Compare that to his 4-5-9, minus-12 line with the Islanders and landing in Boston seems like a new lease on his hockey life. Or perhaps a sense of familiarity, since he did spend four-plus seasons in Boston, going 101-135-236, plus-23 in 338 games. He has points in seven straight games coming into this one (3-9-12) and is 14-19-33 in 50 career games against Washington.

Washington: Dale Hunter

The Caps have been stumbling around the edge of the playoffs for several months now, and with the season down to its last five games Dale Hunter is going to have to reach deep into his bag of tricks to find a way to lift the Caps over these last five games. After likening the game on Tuesday against Buffalo to a “Game 7,” the Caps fell flat on their collective keisters. What does he say, if anything, to a bunch that seems to lack the ability to raise themselves up from within? As much as any player on the ice, what Hunter can conjure up as a motivating spark could be what is needed. Then again, if you need motivation to play your best at this time of year, you are not likely to be successful.

Keys:

1. Off-beat. Tim Thomas is a feisty sort. Get him out of rhythm – annoy him, pester him. He wants to play his game like a Sousa march, on the beat for 60 minutes. The Caps need to play some off-beat music and make his life less predictable for 60 minutes.

2. Cast out the castoffs. It is worth noting, without attaching deeper meaning to it, that the Chris Kelly-Benoit Poulio-Brian Rolston line is not home grown. All come from other organizations (Kelly from Ottawa, Pouliot from Minnesota and Montreal, Rolston from, well…just about everywhere else, it seems; the Bruins are his fifth franchise, two of which he played for twice). They are the hot trio, and it is they who must be stopped. If the Caps can’t stop them (and they had trouble with Buffalo’s hot forwards), this is not going to end well.

3. Ovie hears a who. As in, “who is going to do some scoring to supplement Ovechkin?” He has nine of the Caps’ last 18 goals. If the Caps don’t get scoring from some other folks, the Caps are going to find themselves one step closer to elimination.

In the end, what is it going to take? This team is about as healthy as it has been since January 3rd (when Nicklas Backstrom went out), save for the accumulated bumps a bruises all teams have by now. There isn’t a magic potion, there isn’t some pill they can take, there isn’t any “as seen on TV” contraption that they can order to find that spark they need to get them over these last five games and into the playoffs. It is playing as they can, without all the drama, without all the ghastly mistakes, without all the navel-gazing post game quotes about how things are “unacceptable” and how they need to play better.

Just play better. You can do this.

Caps 3 – Bruins 2

A NO-point night -- Game 77: Sabres 5 - Capitals 1

What it came down to was that the Buffalo Sabres had Ryan Miller, and the Washington Capitals did not.

That is not an indictment of Caps goaltender Braden Holtby, just a simple acknowledgment of the fact that when a former Vezina Trophy winning, Olympic silver medalist, Hobey Baker Award winning goaltender who came into this game with a record of 13-1-3, 1.78, .941, and three shutouts over his last 17 decisions, is at the top of his game, the team he faces will have to be at the top of its game to win. The Caps were not at the top of their game. That is not to say that Holtby played well. He did not, but he was not as bad as his three goals on 18 shots suggests, either.

No, the Caps came up pretty small in a pretty big game, one for which the competitive portion was over before the first period horn sounded. Oh, you can say that the Caps have come from two goals down to win before, even this season. Even a three-goal deficit, which they faced in the second period. And when Alexander Semin scored less than three minutes after Buffalo posted that 3-0 lead, you might have convinced yourselves that the Caps had a chance.

Yeah, right. This was not the Caps falling behind the New York Islanders by a 3-0 score before coming back to win, as they did two weeks ago, and Evgeni Nabokov is not, at least at this point in his career, Ryan Miller. This one was over when Thomas Vanek potted a rebound five minutes into the second period to put the Sabres up, 3-0. After all, Miller had allowed more than three goals in a game exactly once in his previous 18 appearances and only twice in his previous 28 appearances. It might have been a Caps home game, but last night really was “Miller Time.”

Other stuff…

-- Sure, the Caps are still only two points behind the Sabres with five games to play, but here is the daunting climb the Caps face. If Buffalo splits their last five games and gets five standings points, the Caps need to earn seven points in their last five games to reach the playoffs. How often have they earned seven points in five games? In 51 instances of five-game blocks since Dale Hunter has taken over as coach, the Caps have done it eight times. And that assumes Buffalo earns only half the standings points available. Given that the Sabres have now won five in a row and have earned standings points in 10 of their last 11 games (8-1-2), their splitting their remaining available standings points seems more hope than plan.

-- “B” stands not just for “Buffalo,” but for “balance.” This has been a hallmark of Lindy Ruff-coached teams in Buffalo. How balanced? Seventeen of 18 skaters were on the plus side of the ledger last night. Only Ville Leino was as bad as “even.”

-- On the other hand, having big players come up big in big games has not been a hallmark of the Caps since, oh, pretty much forever. Alexander Semin had a pretty goal after things had more or less been decided, but he was also on the ice for the first four Sabre goals. Amazing…he’s on the ice for only 19 shifts and five goals are scored -- one his, four theirs.

-- Alex Ovechkin did not record a shot on goal until the 6:54 mark of the second period, by which time the score was 3-1. He has to be given the benefit of the doubt, what with his being pretty much the offense for the Caps over the last two week, but this was the wrong time to come up dry.

-- Seventeen giveaways. The Caps have been pretty good managing the puck lately, but they were generous with it last night. Twelve players had at least one, including both goaltenders.

-- It is not as if the Caps lacked for zone starts. There were 28 draws taken in the Caps’ offensive zone (they won 17), and only 11 in the Sabres’ offensive zone (the Caps won eight of those).

-- Twelve power play shots from seven different players. The Caps had their chances there, too. But they came up empty on four power plays, the first time this month they have had more than two power play chances and failed to get a goal.

-- Jason Pominville’s shorthanded goal was the tenth allowed by the Caps this season. Only Tampa Bay and New Jersey have allowed more.

-- Here is something to hang your hat on…the Caps allowed five goals last night. They are 9-6-0 in games following such contests this season.

In the end, this looks like the end. This whole “they’re only two points back” has a certain whistling-past-the-graveyard feel to it. Buffalo is at the top of their game and has been playing fine hockey for more than a month. The Caps almost certainly cannot catch Florida (five points ahead) or Ottawa (four). It is now down to Buffalo and themselves, and unless Buffalo’s wheels start falling off quickly (a loss to the Penguins on Friday sure would help), then the Caps have only a few games of hockey in April to look forward to.

Perhaps it is a long-delayed penance the Caps are paying for having eliminated Buffalo and going to the Stanley Cup finals back in ’98. It was a dreadful loss to the Sabres that doomed coach Bruce Boudreau back in November, and it is this loss that could signal the last gasp of this season for the Caps. It has been coming since the Caps started their downward spiral after their seven game winning streak to open the season. Unless they can find a winning streak at the end of it, this disappointing season will be over shortly.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 77: Sabres at Capitals, March 27th

Cheerless forgot to mail the check to the internet provider, so we don't have all of our usual bells and whistles for this one...

"Sorry, cuz."

So, we have an abbreviated version of our preview.

"Can I post it?"

NO!

Five things that will make you the smartest person at the water cooler, Buffalo edition...

1. Buffalo has shown a finishing kick lately in winning four in a row, scoring 14 of their 17 goals in the second and third period.  It seems to be the key to turning things around for them, because for the season they are a plus-8 (goals for/against) in the first period of games, but they are still a minus-10 in the second period and a minus-11 in the third period for the entire season.

2. Buffalo isn’t especially adept at scoring at 5-on-3. Only two teams in the league have fewer goals at 5-on-3 than the Sabres’ two goals.

3. The Sabres do have a talent for winning games close. Only five teams have more one-goal wins (20); only three teams have earned points in more decisions (30 in 37 one-goal games).

4. Buffalo does fairly well when outshooting their opponents. Their .552 winning percentage is eighth in the league. They just don’t do it often enough. They have outshot their opponents only 29 times in 76 games. Only six teams have outshot their opponents less frequently.

5. Second periods seem key against the Sabres. They are 35th in winning percentage when leading after one period (.679), while they are 24-0-2 when leading after 40 minutes (.923), seventh in the league. Their problem, again, is frequency – only 28 leads after one period, only 26 after two.

Five things you can use to impress your special someone, if they happen to be a Caps fan...

1. Washington is walking with a limp these days, and it isn’t only Joel Ward’s foot injury. In their last six games, it is loss-loss-win, loss-loss-win. There’s a pattern that needs to be broken.

2. The Caps have had more than two power plays on four occasions this month. They have scored at least one goal in all of them and have a record of 3-1-0. In the other nine games in which they had two or fewer power plays they failed to score a goal in any of them, are 0-for-11, and they have a record of 3-3-3.

3. The penalty killers are a respectable 35-for-41 in their last 16 games (85.4 percent), almost evenly split at home (17-for-20) and on the road (18-for-21).

4. Washington leads the league in goals scored at 4-on-4 (13), and only the Los Angeles Kings have more goals scored at 4-on-3. Did someone say, “rules change?”

5. Only two teams have more wins when trailing after the second period than Washington (Tampa Bay – Tampa Bay?? – and Pittsburgh).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Buffalo: Ryan Miller

Who else matters more in the Sabres’ biggest game of the year. Buffalo is 13-2-3 since February 19th, and Ryan Miller has been the brick wall in goal – 13-1-3, 1.78, .941, and three shutouts. But while he has been almost impenetrable in goal over the last month, his career numbers against the Caps are merely mortal – 12-9-3, 2.52, .914, and three shutouts. He is 1-1-0 against the Caps this season, having allowed five goals on 43 shots in his two appearances.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

If Miller is going to be the immovable object in goal, then Alex Ovechkin has to be the irresistible force for the Caps. And he has been just that recently. Goals in five consecutive games (seven overall), six of his last seven games (nine goals). He must have asked Santa Claus for his goal-scoring touch back, because since Christmas he has 25 goals in 39 games, a 53-goal pace per 82 games. He has 17 goals in 29 career games against the Sabres, including three in three games this season.

Keys:

1. Win the wall. The Sabres do not have an especially big or physical team. The Caps need to win battles and earn possession of the puck to keep the Sabres from using what could be their advantage in open ice with their quick forwards.

2. Pack ‘em in. Ryan Miller is in a zone right now, which means if he sees it, he stops it. Don’t let him see the puck, put bodies in front of him, bump him, annoy him. Do a puppet show. Anything.

3. Slow and steady…repeat, steady. The Caps have had issues from time to time…ok, a lot… with being able to put teams away. They need to apply steady pressure to grind the Sabres down and not go into their own shell and let the Sabres start running around causing a ruckus on the scoreboard late.

In the end, both teams have to win this game. The Sabres need it because they are on the wrong side of the first tie-breaker if the teams finish the regular season tied in standings points. The Caps need it because they still have rough road games in Boston and New York against eh Rangers, and they cannot afford to keep leaving points on the table at home. This just might boil down to which player will stay hot – the goal scorer or the goal stopper. Guess who wee think stays hot.

Capitals 4 – Sabres 3

Two Goalies...One Game

Tuesday’s game between the Washington Capitals and the Buffalo Sabres is perhaps the biggest game of the season for each team. The importance of the game – the winner will break a standings points tie for eighth place and the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference with five games left to play – will place a lot of attention on the goaltenders.

For the Sabres, the decision is easy. Ryan Miller is a former Vezina Trophy winner who comes into this game 13-1-3 in his last 17 appearances with a 1.78 goals-against average, a .941 save percentage, and three shutouts.

For the Capitals, the decision is not nearly so cut-and-dried. Complicating the issue is the fact that number one goaltender Tomas Vokoun is still nursing an injury and appears highly unlikely to be ready for this game. Then there is the matter of the two goalies behind him on the depth chart who have been shouldering the load for much of this month. What is the case for and against each netminder?

Michal Neuvirth

For:

-- Record of 3-1-1 lifetime against the Sabres.
-- Is 5-3-2, 2.60, .910, with one shutout over his last 12 appearances.
-- Is 5-1-0, 1.77, .939, with two shutouts against Northeast Division teams this season.
-- Is more likely to be the goalie not named “Vokoun” to be called upon to bear the workload in the playoffs; needs to get ready for that job.

Against:

-- Has allowed four or more goals in five of his last seven appearances (2-3-2, 3.07, ,891, one shutout)
-- Has a career 3.40 goals-against average against Buffalo with a .901 save percentage.
-- He has not played since the 4-3 loss to Winnipeg last Friday. With three or more days rest this season he is 4-7-3, 3.07, .901 (but he does have two shutouts).
-- In 11 appearances this season against playoff-eligible teams in the Eastern Conference, he is 1-5-3, 3.22, .884.

Braden Holtby

For:

-- Has improved his performance in each of his four appearances this season, his save percentage by game going: .857, .909, .964, 1.000.
-- Of his four appearances, three of them were against teams that were playoff eligible when he faced them (San Jose currently out of the top-eight in the West), and while his overall mark against those teams is not remarkable (1-1-1, 2.93, .307), he did improve in each successive game.
-- In his short career over parts of two seasons he has faced playoff or playoff eligible teams 10 times. In those games he is 6-1-3, 2.12, .922, with one shutout.
-- In 18 career appearances he has allowed or was on pace to allow (if pulled) more than three goals only three times.

Against:

-- Looking at those ten playoff teams he has faced over the past two seasons, his home record is 3-1-1, 2.55, .911, considerably weaker than his performance on the road.
-- He has only those 18 career appearances over two seasons, not a big resume for a big game.
-- He has been inconsistent at Hershey this season; GAA by month: 2.99, 2.43, 2.36, 2.73, 2.60, 2.64; save percentage by month: .886, .892, .918, .915, .909, .891.

In the end, it really does get pretty simple. Both goalies have been given opportunities since Tomas Vokoun last appeared on March 16th. One is 2-0-1, the other is 0-1-1. One has improved with his successive performances, the other has seemed equal parts stuck in the mud and suffering a lack of support in front of him. One has done just about all he can do with the opportunities presented, despite his lack of experience. The other has looked as if he has regressed somewhat.

It is not an endorsement of who should be the Caps’ number one goalie going into the playoffs, because, well…they’re not in the playoffs yet, and a week is a lifetime in goaltending. But for this game, Braden Holtby should get the nod.