Annulment?

When it comes to labor negotiations, Donald Fehr and Gary Bettman have years, decades in fact, of experience in the ups and downs, the highs and lows, and the twists and turns that characterize them.  If you were to put together a list of people least likely to harbor – or at least show – emotion as talks are going on, Bettman and Fehr would be high on that list.

Not so Alex Ovechkin.  What we expect from middle-aged men in suits who have spent a lifetime in the art of the deal, we would not expect from a 27-year old who makes his living on skates in a sport where passion is at the core of an individual’s and a team’s success.

So, when Alex Ovechkin is asked if he will stay in Russia if the new collective bargaining agreement includes provisions for a significant rollback in the value of existing contracts, and he answers…

"I think yes. If my contract will be cut down greatly, it would be possible to annul it through the court."

…we might consider it as a response borne of the same passion that makes Ovechkin a thrill to watch on the ice.

Having said that, though, there is a non-zero probability that Ovechkin will make good on his threat and that some court, somewhere, will uphold his choice.  And if that was to happen, then the unthinkable would come to pass.  For the first time since the 2003-2004 season the Washington Capitals would ice a team that did not have Alex Ovechkin in its lineup.  Today we will take a look what sort of production we might expect out of that lineup.  You might avert your eyes from here on if you are easily made queasy.

With Ovechkin the Capitals currently have a full 23-man parent roster.  The 21 skaters on that roster include 13 forwards and eight defensemen (for this discussion Tom Poti is not included on the roster).  Last season those 21 players recorded a total of 204 goals.  That would have tied Dallas for 22^nd in the league in scoring.  And if you are thinking that the Caps might get contributions from other skaters because no team ever ices just 21 skaters on a roster for a full season, the Caps had a total of only three goals from six additional forwards last season (those last six being the 22^nd -  27^th skaters in games played).  The amount is insignificant.

The object of this exercise, though, is to take a look at what the basic roster would look like without Ovechkin and what it might produce.  That means two things.  First, we do not have to concern ourselves with those extra skaters.  We are looking at the best 21 skaters the Caps would take with them out of whatever training camp they hold.  Second, for comparative purposes we will convert all player and team statistics to “per-82 game” values to compare apples to apples.  With these two ideas in mind, there are three alternative scenarios to look at: baseline, career averages, and personal best.

The Baseline

The baseline is the 2011-2012 performance of the 21 skaters currently on the Caps’ roster.  Those 21 skaters combined for 204 goals last season.  As we noted, that total would have tied for 22^nd in the league.  But we need a baseline to make further comparisons.  What we can do is take each of those 21 skaters and convert their goal totals into per-82 game values.  When we do that, the total is 252 goals.  This is not to say that if completely healthy or for other reasons the Caps as currently constituted would have scored 252 goals last season.  For one thing not all 21 players would have played in all 82 games, even if everyone was healthy for a whole season.  Only 18 skaters dress per game.  We are merely establishing a baseline of goal-scoring efficiency from which other scenarios can be evaluated.

Of those 252 goals, how many are accounted for by Alex Ovechkin?  His total would be 40 (he had 38 in 78 games).  Take those away, and the remaining 20 skaters accounted for 212 goals.  Here we can approximate what this value translates to over the course of a season, acknowledging that only 18 skaters dress per night.  To keep this simple, we would assume that missed games are spread evenly across the remaining 20 players.  When we do that, the total goals that serve as the baseline is 191.

Career-Average Basis

The idea here is not to rely on a single year to try to predict a volume of goals from the Ovechkin-less Capitals.  The other 20 roster players all have histories, whether coming off a rookie season or, if you are a Roman Hamrlik, almost 1,400 games of experience.  Using the same process we used in building the baseline, we find that Alex Ovechkin has an average of 50 goals per 82-games over the course of his career, considerably higher than the 40-per-82 games he had last year in what is the baseline number.  However, other players have had bigger years over the course of their careers than they had last year, too.  Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green, and Wojtek Wolski are among that group and push the total number of goals for the 21 skaters to 278.  Take out Ovechkin’s total (50), and the remainder for the other 20 skaters is 228.  When we further account for the available number of man-games in an 82-game season, this 20-man group might be expected to score a total of 205 goals if they hit their career average marks.

Career-Best Basis

Alex Ovechkin scored 65 goals in the 2007-2008 season.  For Caps fans, that season might seem so far away, but it is still the most goals scored by a left wing in NHL history.  But there are some impressive goal totals among other Capitals when finding their respective career best.  There is Mike Green with 31 goals in 68 games in 2008-2009.  There is Nicklas Backstrom with 33 goals in 2009-2010.  Brooks Laich had 25 in the same season, nine more than he had last season.  Wojtek Wolski and Joel Ward had career bests significantly better than their output last season.

Applying the same rules in this scenario we have a 21-man total of 386 goals.  Taking Ovechkin’s total out (65 goals in 82 games), we are left with 321 goals.  And when we account for the available number of man-games, that total is 289. 

What Does It Mean?

First of all, the comparison of these three scenarios highlight just how disappointing last year’s scoring output was.  Even with Ovechkin not in the mix, the 20 remaining Caps had a lower adjusted goal total (191) than their career average adjusted goal total (205).  And that is after adding Mike Ribeiro’s output and Wojtek Wolski’s for that matter.  That might be the product of the continuing decline in scoring since Lockout I, coaching style, or just some bad years goal-scoring wise (Mike Knuble comes to mind).

But what does this mean in a Caps world without Ovechkin?  Remember that the adjusted goal total for the other 20 players last season was 191 goals.  To get to last year’s goal scoring total (218 goals) the Caps have to find a way to make up 27 goals.  They do not have to make up Ovechkin’s entire production, much of the difference being due to the subtraction of Knuble and the addition of Mike Ribeiro among scoring lines.

If the Capitals 20 remaining roster players play to their career averages per-82 games (adjusted for available man-games), they would have to make up only 13 goals, from 205 to 218. 

We can safely dismiss the “career-best” scenario as an exercise of wishful thinking.  It is unlikely that Green would reach 31 goals again (or 37 in the per-82 game adjusted measure).  The same might be said for Nicklas Backstrom (career best: 33/33), Ribeiro (27/29), or Wolski (22/24).  But there are some Capitals who could improve on their respective career bests.  Players like Marcus Johansson (13/15), Mathieu Perreault (16/21), John Carlson (7/9), or Dmitry Orlov (3/4) could improve on those bests.  But note that the 289 goals in the “career best” scenario are only 16 more goals than the league leader (Pittsburgh) had last season.

And that begs the big question, what do the Caps have to make up without Ovechkin, not just to get to last year’s total – a disappointing one – but to being a top-ten scoring team?  Last year’s tenth-leading scoring team was Toronto.  The Maple Leafs scored a total of 227 goals.  When compared to the 191 goal baseline for the 20 remaining Caps, the club needs to find 36 goals somewhere to fill Ovechkin’s absence and the additional production to be a likely top-ten scoring team.  The difficulty here for the Caps is that only nine players in the league had that many or more last season.  And getting into the top-ten is not a trivial consideration.  Eight of the top-ten scoring teams in the league made the playoffs, including seven of the ten teams to finish the season with more than 100 standings points.

If the Caps were to become a likely top-five scoring team once more, they would have to make up something on the order of 50 goals (Vancouver was fifth with 241 goals last season).  Only Steven Stamkos and Evgeni Malkin hit or exceeded that mark last season.  Each of the teams in the top-five made the playoffs last season, and four of them finished with more than 100 points.

Looking at it from another angle, if the Caps can make up only a fraction of the missing Ovechkin production and finish with, say, 200 goals, their playoff chances would look grim compared to last season.  Seven teams finished the 2011-2012 season with 200 goals or fewer.  Five of them missed the playoffs and another (Florida) finished only five points ahead of the ninth-place finisher.  Of course, the Caps could be the Los Angeles Kings – the seventh of these teams and defending Stanley Cup champions – but that would not necessarily be the way to bet.

It seems very unlikely that Alex Ovechkin will translate a statement made in the heat of labor negotiations into action days or weeks from now.  But if he was to do so, the Caps offensive prospects would be bleak.  They almost certainly would have no 30-goal scorers.  They might have no more than two 20 goal scorers based on career averages (Backstrom and Ribeiro) and no guarantee of any.  The short-term outlook for the Capitals would put in serious jeopardy their being able to add to the five-year playoff streak they take into the 2012-2013 season.  And it would cast severe doubt on the club’s chances to be a Stanley Cup contender for years to come.

A NO-point night -- Game 6: Canadiens 7 - Capitals 1

After a successful three-game home stand, the Washington Capitals took to the road last night to face the Montreal Canadiens at Bell Centre.  While the Caps were wrapping up their three-win homestand, the Canadiens were dropping a pair of games to the Boston Bruins, one by a 5-2 margin in Montreal, the other in a shutout at TD Garden, 4-0.

One would not have been able to guess these teams’ recent fortunes based on how they started the contest.  Montreal scored on their first shift when Erik Cole whacked in a rebound of a P.K. Subban shot.  They were not done.  The Canadiens would score on each of their next two shots.  Their second goal came at 3:22 when Max Pacioretty notched his third of the young season on a deflection of a Tomas Kaberle drive.  The third came when Tomas Plekanec picked Dmitry Orlov’s pocket and roofed a shot over goalie Michal Neuvirth’s right shoulder to make it 3-0.

Montreal made it 4-0 when Scott Gomez stepped out from behind the Caps’ net and snapped a shot past Neuvirth on the short side.  That goal ended Neuvirth’s night in favor of Braden Holtby.  The change in goaltenders did not have its intended effect.  Holtby allowed a goal on the first shot he faced, misplaying what looked like a harmless wrist shot from defenseman Josh Gorges through his five-hole.  Montreal had a 5-0 lead on only nine shots.  They did not score on any of the four shots they had to close the period, but the Caps skated off shell-shocked at being down 5-0.

The second period was plodding along with Montreal skating not to make a mistake and the Caps looking disorganized.  Things livened up, though, when either Troy Brouwer ran goalie Carey Price in his crease, or Brouwer was pushed into him by Gorges, depending on whose point of view you are listening to.  Price got up and threw several punches with his blocker at Brouwer, and Ryan White joined the fray in defense of his goaltender.  The skaters paired off, but except for a few shoves from Colby Armstrong and Jason Chimera, a larger brawl was avoided.

What the Caps could not avoid, though, was more damage on the scoreboard.  With Mike Green off for tripping, David Desharnais made it 6-0 when he wristed a shot past Hotlby at the 12:02 mark of the period.  The Canadiens added another power play goal late in the frame when Cole notched his second of the game off a feed from Subban, who also had the primary assist on Cole’s first goal of the night.  The 7-0 score would be how the period ended.

The Caps ruined Price’s shutout early in the third period when Roman Hamrlik scored on a drive that hit Josh Gorges skate in front and snuck under Price’s pads.  That would be all the Caps would get, though, and it would end the scoring for the evening.  The Caps five-game points streak to open the season came crashing to earth with a loud thud, 7-1.

Canadiens 7  - Capitals 1

A TWO-point night -- Game 5: Capitals 3 - Jets 1

It was another Southeast Division matchup on Friday night as the Washington Capitals hosted the Winnipeg Jets.  The Jets were hoping to win their first game after dropping a pair of one-goal decisions in Winnipeg to the Carolina Hurricanes and the Chicago Blackhawks.  On the other hand, the Caps were aiming to improve on their 3-0-1 mark, the only blemish coming in a 3-2 Gimmick loss to Ottawa.

Neither team could seem to catch a break in the first period.  Alexander Burmistrov had his stick break just as he was about to wrist a shot at Caps goalie Michal Neuvirth on a breakaway in the game’s eighth minute.  Alex Ovechkin hit not one, but both posts on the same slap shot off a one-time feed from Nicklas Backstrom on a power play mid-way through the period.  

Olli Jokinen missed a golden opportunity when Michal Neuvirth took a rare opportunity to try to play the puck behind his own net.  Losing sight of it, he lost it to Evander Kane, who sent a pass out to Jokinen.  With the cage empty, Jokinen had only to bat the biscuit into the cage, but the puck jumped over his stick as he swung and missed.

Mike Ribeiro was be foiled a short time later when he wristed a shot that caught goalie Ondrej Pavelec flush on the mask, the puck popping up and over the goalie.  Zach Bogosian was johnny-on-the-spot, though, to sweep the loose puck away just as it was about to cross the goal line.  The teams went off scoreless after the first period, but not for lack of odd bounces.

The second period followed a more conventional script, at least so far as the early going in the season was concerned.  For the fourth time in five games the Caps scored first. Mathieu Perreault recorded his first of the year when a rebound of a Joey Crabb shot squirted out to Pavelec’ left. Before he could cover the near post, Perreault stuffed the puck behind him.

It would be the only scoring of the period despite what became a march to the penalty box for both teams.  Each team was whistled for four minor penalties in the frame, but despite the ample opportunities to add to the scoreboard, neither team could capitalize.

The teams were on better behavior in the third period, but it did not make a difference on the scoreboard as the period opened.  Jason Chimera was foiled on a breakaway in the fifth minute of the period, and Perreault was denied by Pavelec trying to convert a 2-on-1 with Wojtek Wolski on the next shift.  Winnipeg wasted its chances as well, Kane shooting wide from point blank range at the nine-minute mark.

The Jets finally broke through when Dmitry Orlov lost control of the puck at the Jets’ blue line.  Kane did not squander this opportunity, pushing the puck out of Orlov’s reach and out into the neutral zone.  He beat Orlov to the puck and was scot-free on a breakaway.  His backhand over Neuvirth’s glove tied the game at 11:22 of the period.

The game might have have had its turning point as the clock was approaching the 15 minute mark of the period.  Roman Hamrlik was sent off for a double-minor for high-sticking Andrew Ladd behind the Washington net.  Michal Neuvirth took charge of the penalty kill for the Caps, turning away several excellent chances.  The best of them was a sparkling glove save when Kane faked circling around the net and tried to stuff the puck behind Neuvirth as he was about to slide across his crease to cover the far post.

The hard work was rewarded as the penalty was about to expire.  With Troy Brouwer and Nik Antropov scrapping for the puck along the boards, Brouwer kicked it out from under Antropov’s skate to the Capitals’ blue line.  Brooks Laich picked it up and headed up ice just as Hamrlik was coming out.  It was an unconventional 2-on-1 break, Tobias Enstrom back to defend the play for the Jets.  Laich sent the puck across to Hamrlik as the two crossed the Winnipeg blue line, and Hamrlik sent it back for Laich to fire over Pavelec’ blocker on the short side to give the Caps the lead at 18:59.

It would be all the Caps needed.  Jay Beagle got his first of the year on an empty net goal to close the scoring, the Caps pushing their record to 4-0-1 with the 3-1 win over the Jets.

Capitals 3 – Jets 1

What Does Sid Think?

Original Photo: Canadian Press

How to know where we are: PUCKCON

With yesterday’s disappointing news throwing a wrench into the machinery of labor negotiations, hockey fans pivoted quickly from sense of optimism to one of woe.  From the faintest glimmer of hope that a season would start soon – perhaps not by November 2^nd, but shortly thereafter – by sundown we were cast back into the darkness of the possibility of a lost season. 

We need something better to gauge our situation.  So, your Uncle Peerless introduces you to…

A TWO-point night -- Game 4: Capitals 4 - Maple Leafs 2

The Washington Capitals helped themselves to another plate of home cooking when they hosted the Toronto Maple Leafs on Wednesday.  The Caps came into the contest with a 2-0-1 record through three games, while the visitors were getting back into action after a four day hiatus following their 5-4 win over Montreal in their season opener in Toronto. 

The layoff did not seem to affect the Maple Leafs much at the outset, dominating early play with a 9-1 shot advantage in the game’s first ten minutes.  Toronto’s tenth shot found the back of the Washington cage, Phil Kessel wristing the puck past goalie Michal Neuvirth to give the Leafs the early lead at 10:40 of the first period.   

The Caps got it right back, though, when Troy Brouwer notched his first of the season, stuffing in a rebound of an Alex Ovechkin shot past Leafs goalie James Reimer at 11:51.   

The teams traded opportunities over the last eight minutes of the opening frame, the game coming a bit frayed with the back and forth action.  But Neuvirth and Reimer prevented any further damage and led the teams off at the first intermission with the game tied, 1-1. 

The second period opened much like the first with the Leafs putting the Caps on their heels.  But this time it backfired on them when a drive by defenseman Dion Phaneuf was blocked by Joel Ward, the puck ending up on the stick of Mike Green, who fed the puck up to Marcus Johansson starting up ice with Jason Chimera on a 2-on-1 break with John-Michael Liles back for the Leafs.  Johansson spread things out at the Leafs’ line to create a better passing angle and to force Liles to decide which option to defend.  Liles hesitated, and it was all Johansson needed to slide the puck to Chimera for the tip-in at 5:33 of the period. 

Toronto then tried to stem what momentum the Caps might have generated when Mike Brown dropped the gloves with Matt Hendricks.  Brown landed a couple of rights to Hendricks’ helmet, but Hendricks got the takedown before the linesmen restored order.   

After the brief interlude, the game settled into a bit of a funk; neither team generating much in the way of offense.  But with just over a minute remaining in the period the Caps got a goal from Dmitry Orlov on a drive from the top of the Leafs’ zone that Reimer was late defending.  It would be the last of the scoring in the second period, the Caps taking a 3-1 lead into the dressing room. 

Toronto got cut the two goal deficit in half in the first minute of the third period when Kessel struck again, this time from the doorstep when Neuvirth lost track of a loose puck that was rattling off legs in his crease.  The goal gave Toronto new life, but Neuvirth was up to the task, turning away a flurry of shots coming after the Leafs narrowed the lead. 

The effort expended appeared to wear on Toronto, though.  After peppering Neuvirth in the first half of the period, the shots stopped coming.  It allowed the Caps to play a patient, methodical game over the last ten minutes.  Their patience was rewarded in the last minute when Brooks Laich notched his second goal of the season, and empty netter at 19:51 to close the scoring, the Caps skating off with a 4-2 win.

Capitals 4 – Maple Leafs 2

The Peerless Prognosticator Brings You... Your 2012-2013 Western Conference Prognostos!

Having finished up the Eastern Conference prognostos, and with optimism rolling across the land, it only makes sense to offer up a big steaming pile of Western Conference prognostos (dipping sauce is optional)…

1.  Vancouver Canucks (1st in NW)

Since the end of last season, there has been a lot of attention paid to the Vancouver Canucks and the changing of the guard in goal from Roberto Luongo to Cory Schneider. One might think that the change from a goalie with 339 wins to one with barely a tenth that number (38) would result in some slippage in performance.  Well, over the last nine seasons the Vancouver Canucks averaged 102 standings points, more than 110 points in each of the last two years.  They have done it with goaltending from the likes of Luongo (224 wins with the Canucks over the period), Dan Cloutier (74), Schneider and Alex Auld (38 apiece), and even Curtis Sanford (11).  Eleven different goalies have won games for the Canucks in that span, and only Dany Sabourin (2-4-1) had a sub-.500 record.  That is, in part, because there are eight skaters on the club who have played in at least 200 games with Vancouver.  Not a bad definition of stability.  And that group includes the Brothers Sedin, Ryan Kesler, and Alexandre Burrows, all of whom have more than 100 goals for the Canucks in that period.  Vancouver will be just fine.

2.  Los Angeles Kings (1st in PAC)

The Kings dominated the playoffs last spring in route to their first Stanley Cup.  That is not to say they are immune from the Stanley Cup “hangover” that has left the Cup without a repeat owner since 1998.  And this is really a team built more for the playoffs than for a regular season of putting up numbers.  Their offense will not be as bad as last year’s (29th in scoring), if only because they will have Jeff Carter for the whole season (6-3-9 in 16 games with the Kings last season).  It will help that the Pacific Division is not as strong, top-to-bottom, as it was last year, too.  This is team that could have a couple of 30-goal scorers (Carter and Anze Kopitar), a what might be the deepest defense in the league, and a virtually impenetrable goaltender in Jonathan Quick.  They will not repeat their Cup victory, but they won’t be easy to beat, either.

3.  St. Louis Blues (1st in CEN)

The stunning swiftness with which the St. Louis Blues were dispatched by the Kings in last spring’s playoffs was a surprise, but remember, too, that the Blues’ ascent to the stratosphere of 109 standings points (tied for second in the league) followed a post-Lockout I period in which they bounced along between 80-90 standings points (they averaged 81).  This might be their year, now that they have fully incorporated the disciplined approach of head coach Ken Hitchcock.  Although Hitchcock has a reputation – deserved – as a defense-oriented coach, the Blues had nine players with ten or more goals last year and 16 with ten or more points (Kris Russell would have made 17 had he been with the Blues for more than 43 games).  The Blues will not likely hold teams to 1.89 goals per game again (unless you think goalie Brian Elliott has nine more shutouts in him), but they will be hard to score on and balanced enough to do enough of their own.

4.  Nashville Predators (2nd in CEN)

Losing defenseman Ryan Suter to the Minnesota Wild will hurt, but then again, not having the year-long soap opera of where Suter and defensive pair-mate Shea Weber will go has to be a plus (Weber is staying).  Last year they were top-ten in both scoring and fewest goals allowed (only Detroit, Vancouver, and Boston could claim that double along with the Preds).  They also were top-ten in both special teams rankings – tops on the power play (only Vancouver and Pittsburgh could claim that one).  This is a team that does things the right way and consistently the right way (no streak of regulation time losses longer than three games last season).  Suter or no Suter, they still have Barry Trotz, perhaps the best coach in league history not to have won a Jack Adams Award.

5.  Chicago Blackhawks (3rd CEN)

This is a team that seemed to go stretches on autopilot last season, but if you look at their record at every ten-game mark it was impressive: 6-2-2, 12-5-3, 18-8-4, 24-12-4, 29-15-6, 32-21-7, 37-25-8, before closing 45-26-11.  They did it primarily by outscoring their opponents…well, of course, but doing it by 2.94 goals per game (tied for fifth in scoring) to 2.82 goals per game (only eight teams allowed more, only one – Ottawa – making the playoffs).  The Hawks have the wherewithal to repeat that sort of offensive performance, but they do need Corey Crawford to finish better than 33rd in goals-against average (among 45 goaltenders) and 36th in save percentage…or Ray Emery, for that matter, if Crawford cannot.

6.  Detroit Red Wings (4th CEN)

Hear that?  That creaking sound?  That is the Detroit Red Wings.  Their current roster features six forwards past 30 years of age, and that includes Pavel Datsyuk (34), Johan Franzen (32), and Henrik Zetterberg (32). The defense does not creak as much (Niklas Kronwall is 31, the only defenseman older than 30), but neither it is the strength of the team, either, especially since Nicklas Lidstrom has retired.  The top pair here could be Kronwall and Ian White.  Good, but with one too few Nicklas’ on it.  It will put more pressure on Jimmy Howard in goal, and this could be important on a team that faced the third-fewest shots on goal per game last season.

7.  Minnesota Wild (2nd in NW)

So, you finished dead last in scoring offense.  Answer: sign Zach Parise to a long-term deal as a free agent.  You finished tied for 13th in goals allowed per game.  Solution: sign Ryan Suter to the same contract terms as Parise.  This is the poster child for personnel management in the NHL (throw money at a problem?).  It will have the appearance to have worked, not because Parise and Suter by themselves are 14-point difference makers (the margin between the Wild point total last season and eighth place in the West), but maybe because they could get Mikko Koivu back for a full year (27 games missed to injury last season).

8.  San Jose Sharks (2nd in PAC)

San Jose remains a good team, occasionally a very good team.  But their time in the conversation on which teams are bona fide contenders for the Stanley Cup is coming to an end.  Look at the leadership.  Captain Joe Thornton is 33.  Associate captains Ryane Clowe (30), Patrick Marleau (33), and Dan Boyle (36) are also on the far side of 30.  And after Logan Couture (23), this is not a team bursting with skill coming up behind that veteran group.  They will squeeze into the post-season, mostly as a product of the Pacific Division not being altogether than strong.

9.  Phoenix Coyotes (3rd in PAC)

Last season the Coyotes finished 18th in scoring offense, 29th on the power play, and still won the Pacific Division, finishing with 97 points (sixth highest point total in the Western Conference).  How?  One could point to the fact that the Coyotes finished fifth in scoring defense and eighth in penalty killing.  But it really came down to goalie Mike Smith.  In the 2012 portion of the 2011-2012 season Smith was 23-8-7, 2.00, .937, with six shutouts in 39 appearances.  This for a team that allowed the third highest number of shots on goal per game.  Before last season Smith was 67-66-19, 2.71, .906, with 11 shutouts in 162 career appearances.  Last season was really his first sustained opportunity to be the number one guy in goal (his previous high was 42 appearances with Tampa Bay in 2009-2010).  Which Smith shows up this season will likely be the determining factor on whether the Coyotes make another playoff appearance.

10.  Dallas Stars (4th PAC)

On March 28th of last season the Dallas Stars beat the Edmonton Oilers, 3-1.  With the win the Stars had a record of 42-30-5 and were atop the Pacific Division, guaranteed of a number-three seed in the playoffs.  It was their last win.  The Stars lost their last five games, scoring a total of six goals and getting shut out twice in the process.  The finished fourth in the Pacific Division, tenth in the Western Conference, and out of a playoff berth.  You cannot say they stood idly by after that finish.  The Stars added Ray Whitney, Derek Roy, and Jaromir Jagr to their forward corps, a total of 60 goals scored among them last season.  But, that trio is also a combined 109 years old, Jagr and Whitney each having turned 40.  Is that the answer to their late fade last season? 

11.  Edmonton Oilers (3rd in NW)

This team will be really good for awhile, assuming they can hold on to young talent.  But that breakout year is probably not going to be this one.  There are question marks in goal and on the blue line.  In goal, Nikolai Khabibulin will turn 40 in January, and Devan Dubnyk still does not have a 50-game season on his resume.  On defense, they have what might be the wrong combination of age (Andy Sutton: 37) and health (Ryan Whitney has played in only 86 of 162 games for the Oilers over the last two seasons).  But they will be fun to watch.  Among forwards 25 or younger last season Edmonton had three among the top 29 point getters (Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Taylor Hall), and those three did it while missing a combined 45 games.  If they’re healthy, watch out.

12. Anaheim Ducks (5th in PAC)

Bruce Boudreau gets a chance to see what he can do with a full season as the Mallard in Charge.  He was 27-23-8 with the Anaheim Ducks last season after being relieved of his head coaching duties in Washington in November (he was a combined 39-32-9, which looks a lot like the Caps’ 42-32-8 record).  The challenge for Boudreau will be to find a balance between coaxing more dependable offense out of a team that ranked 22nd in scoring last season and more responsible defense (the Ducks ranked 19th in scoring defense).  He’s going to have to do it with what he had, which might not be a bad thing if you think that, say, Ryan Getzlaf’s 57-point year was merely a hiccup, and you can be relieved that the Bobby Ryan trade/no-trade saga is over.

13.  Colorado Avalanche (4th NW)

This club was 8-2-2 in their first dozen games last season, 24-38-8 in their last 70.  Those last 70 games were played at a 66-point pace.  For the sake of reference, that’s “Blue Jacket” territory (Columbus finished the season with 65 points).  The Avs simply were not that good last year – 26th in scoring, 15th in scoring defense, 21st in 5-on-5 play.  What saved them, to the extent it did, was that only four teams had more one-goal wins.  On the other hand, only four teams had more three-or-more-goal losses.  Can new arrival PA Parenteau put them over the playoff hump?  Nowhere else is their inconsistency evident than in goal.  An example – Semyon Varlamov appeared in 53 games last season.  In 15 decisions he allowed one or no goals; in seven decisions he allowed at least five goals.  That’s how you end up 27th in goals against average and save percentage.  This team really isn’t that close to being a playoff team, at least not so close as their fast start last season might have suggested, even with as good a young talent as Gabriel Landeskog.

14.  Calgary Flames (5th in NW)

This team finished second in the Northwest Division last season and still missed the playoffs, this being the state of hockey in that division.  The Flames finished tied for 25th last year in scoring and lost second-leading scorer Olli Jokinen to Winnipeg in free agency.  They did add Jiri Hudler (25-25-50 in 81 games with Detroit) and Dennis Wideman (11-35-46 in 82 games with Washington) to more than make up for Jokinen’s production.  But Jarome Iginla is another year older (35) with some hard miles on him, Miikka Kiprusoff played his seventh straight 4,000-plus minute season and is about to turn 36, and Jay Bouwmeester seems destined never to quite live up to his promise as a defenseman.  Unless the Flames get at least that 23.6 percent shooting percentage from Curtis Glenrcross again, it will be a long year.

15.  Columbus Blue Jackets (5th in CEN)

In 11 seasons the Blue Jackets have finished last in their division six times, fourth on four other occasions, and as high as third only once.  They have never won a playoff game (swept in their only appearance, in 2009).  And now, their franchise leader in goals, assists, points, power play goals, shorthanded goals, and games played has left and taken up residence in Manhattan (that would be Rick Nash).  Their leading returning scorer – Vaclav Prospal (16-35-54 last season) – will be 38 years old in February.  Then there is goalie Steve Mason, whose GAA ballooned from 2.29 in his rookie season to 3.06 to 3.03 to 3.39 last season (44th of 45 qualifying goaltenders), while his save percentage dropped from .916 in that rookie year to .901 to .901 to .894 last season (43rd).  Sergei Bobrovsky (3.02, .899 in 29 games last year), who is only four months younger than Mason, is supposed to help solve this problem.  Good luck with that lottery pick next summer.